This paper proposes a model-based prognostics method that couples the Extended Kalman Filter(EKF) and a new developed linearization method. The proposed prognostics method is developed in the context of fatigue crack ...This paper proposes a model-based prognostics method that couples the Extended Kalman Filter(EKF) and a new developed linearization method. The proposed prognostics method is developed in the context of fatigue crack propagation in fuselage panels where the model parameters are unknown and the crack propagation is affected by different types of uncertainties. The coupled method is composed of two steps. The first step employs EKF to estimate the unknown model parameters and the current damage state. In the second step, the proposed efficient linearization method is applied to compute analytically the statistical distribution of the damage evolution path in some future time. A numerical case study is implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the coupled EKF-linearization method provides satisfactory results: the EKF algorithm well identifies the model parameters, and the linearization method gives comparable prediction results to Monte Carlo(MC) method while leading to very significant computational cost saving. The proposed prognostics method for fatigue crack growth can be used for developing predictive maintenance strategy for an aircraft fleet, in which case, the computational cost saving is significantly meaningful.展开更多
In view of class imbalance in data-driven modeling for Prognostics and Health Management(PHM),existing classification methods may fail in generating effective fault prediction models for the on-board high-speed train ...In view of class imbalance in data-driven modeling for Prognostics and Health Management(PHM),existing classification methods may fail in generating effective fault prediction models for the on-board high-speed train control equipment.A virtual sample generation solution based on Generative Adversarial Network(GAN)is proposed to overcome this shortcoming.Aiming at augmenting the sample classes with the imbalanced data problem,the GAN-based virtual sample generation strategy is embedded into the establishment of fault prediction models.Under the PHM framework of the on-board train control system,the virtual sample generation principle and the detailed procedures are presented.With the enhanced class-balancing mechanism and the designed sample augmentation logic,the PHM scheme of the on-board train control equipment has powerful data condition adaptability and can effectively predict the fault probability and life cycle status.Practical data from a specific type of on-board train control system is employed for the validation of the presented solution.The comparative results indicate that GAN-based sample augmentation is capable of achieving a desirable sample balancing level and enhancing the performance of correspondingly derived fault prediction models for the Condition-based Maintenance(CBM)operations.展开更多
Numerous clustering algorithms are valuable in pattern recognition in forest vegetation,with new ones continually being proposed.While some are well-known,others are underutilized in vegetation science.This study comp...Numerous clustering algorithms are valuable in pattern recognition in forest vegetation,with new ones continually being proposed.While some are well-known,others are underutilized in vegetation science.This study compares the performance of practical iterative reallocation algorithms with model-based clustering algorithms.The data is from forest vegetation in Virginia(United States),the Hyrcanian Forest(Asia),and European beech forests.Practical iterative reallocation algorithms were applied as non-hierarchical methods and Finite Gaussian mixture modeling was used as a model-based clustering method.Due to limitations on dimensionality in model-based clustering,principal coordinates analysis was employed to reduce the dataset’s dimensions.A log transformation was applied to achieve a normal distribution for the pseudo-species data before calculating the Bray-Curtis dissimilarity.The findings indicate that the reallocation of misclassified objects based on silhouette width(OPTSIL)with Flexible-β(-0.25)had the highest mean among the tested clustering algorithms with Silhouette width 1(REMOS1)with Flexible-β(-0.25)second.However,model-based clustering performed poorly.Based on these results,it is recommended using OPTSIL with Flexible-β(-0.25)and REMOS1 with Flexible-β(-0.25)for forest vegetation classification instead of model-based clustering particularly for heterogeneous datasets common in forest vegetation community data.展开更多
The reliable,rapid,and accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL)prognostics of aircraft power supply and distribution system are essential for enhancing the reliability and stability of system and reducing the life-cycle co...The reliable,rapid,and accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL)prognostics of aircraft power supply and distribution system are essential for enhancing the reliability and stability of system and reducing the life-cycle costs.To achieve the reliable,rapid,and accurate RUL prognostics,the balance between accuracy and computational burden deserves more attention.In addition,the uncertainty is intrinsically present in RUL prognostic process.Due to the limitation of the uncertainty quantification,the point-wise prognostics strategy is not trustworthy.A Dual Adaptive Sliding-window Hybrid(DASH)RUL probabilistic prognostics strategy is proposed to tackle these deficiencies.The DASH strategy contains two adaptive mechanisms,the adaptive Long Short-Term Memory-Polynomial Regression(LSTM-PR)hybrid prognostics mechanism and the adaptive sliding-window Kernel Density Estimation(KDE)probabilistic prognostics mechanism.Owing to the dual adaptive mechanisms,the DASH strategy can achieve the balance between accuracy and computational burden and obtain the trustworthy probabilistic prognostics.Based on the degradation dataset of aircraft electromagnetic contactors,the superiority of DASH strategy is validated.In terms of probabilistic,point-wise and integrated prognostics performance,the proposed strategy increases by 66.89%,81.73% and 25.84%on average compared with the baseline methods and their variants.展开更多
Unlike traditional propeller-driven underwater vehicles,blended-wing-body underwater gliders(BWBUGs)achieve zigzag gliding through periodic adjustments of their net buoyancy,enhancing their cruising capabilities while...Unlike traditional propeller-driven underwater vehicles,blended-wing-body underwater gliders(BWBUGs)achieve zigzag gliding through periodic adjustments of their net buoyancy,enhancing their cruising capabilities while mini-mizing energy consumption.However,enhancing gliding performance is challenging due to the complex system design and limited design experience.To address this challenge,this paper introduces a model-based,multidisciplinary system design optimization method for BWBUGs at the conceptual design stage.First,a model-based,multidisciplinary co-simulation design framework is established to evaluate both system-level and disciplinary indices of BWBUG performance.A data-driven,many-objective multidisciplinary optimization is subsequently employed to explore the design space,yielding 32 Pareto optimal solutions.Finally,a model-based physical system simulation,which represents the design with the largest hyper-volume contribution among the 32 final designs,is established.Its gliding perfor-mance,validated by component behavior,lays the groundwork for constructing the entire system’s digital prototype.In conclusion,this model-based,multidisciplinary design optimization method effectively generates design schemes for innovative underwater vehicles,facilitating the development of digital prototypes.展开更多
This paper studies the problem of designing a modelbased decentralized dynamic periodic event-triggering mechanism(DDPETM)for networked control systems(NCSs)subject to packet losses and external disturbances.Firstly,t...This paper studies the problem of designing a modelbased decentralized dynamic periodic event-triggering mechanism(DDPETM)for networked control systems(NCSs)subject to packet losses and external disturbances.Firstly,the entire NCSs,comprising the triggering mechanism,packet losses and output-based controller,are unified into a hybrid dynamical framework.Secondly,by introducing dynamic triggering variables,the DDPETM is designed to conserve network resources while guaranteeing desired performance properties and tolerating the maximum allowable number of successive packet losses.Thirdly,some stability conditions are derived using the Lyapunov approach.Differing from the zero-order-hold(ZOH)case,the model-based control sufficiently exploits the model information at the controller side.Between two updates,the controller predicts the plant state based on the models and received feedback information.With the model-based control,less transmission may be expected than with ZOH.Finally,numerical examples and comparative experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
1. Introduction Prognostics, known as ‘Remaining Useful Life(RUL) prediction', plays a crucial role in health management of critical systems, which is vital for maintaining the operating safety and reliability, a...1. Introduction Prognostics, known as ‘Remaining Useful Life(RUL) prediction', plays a crucial role in health management of critical systems, which is vital for maintaining the operating safety and reliability, and reducing the management costs.1Here, the RUL is usually defined as the length from the current time to the end of the useful life.展开更多
This commentary critically appraises the study by Li et al which pioneered the exploration of the triglyceride-glucose(TyG)index as a prognostic marker in hepatitis B virus-related advanced hepatocellular carcinoma pa...This commentary critically appraises the study by Li et al which pioneered the exploration of the triglyceride-glucose(TyG)index as a prognostic marker in hepatitis B virus-related advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing combined camrelizumab and lenvatinib therapy.While we acknowledge the study’s clinical relevance in proposing an easily accessible metabolic biomarker,we delve into the mechanistic plausibility linking insulin resistance to immunotherapy response and angiogenic inhibition.We further critically examine the methodological limitations,including the retrospective design,the populationspecific TyG cut-off value,and unaddressed metabolic confounders.We highlight the imperative for future research to validate its utility across diverse etiologies and treatment settings,and to unravel the underlying immunometabolic pathways.展开更多
Ossiculoplasty remains a challenging surgical procedure,with outcomes heavily influenced by diverse anatomical and pathological factors.Over the decades,numerous scoring systems have been developed to predict the prog...Ossiculoplasty remains a challenging surgical procedure,with outcomes heavily influenced by diverse anatomical and pathological factors.Over the decades,numerous scoring systems have been developed to predict the prognosis of ossiculoplasty,each emphasizing different variables such as ossicular status,middle ear environment,and surgical history.This paper provides a comprehensive review of the evolution of prognostic scoring systems,including Austin's original ossicular classification,Bellucci's otorrhea staging,the Middle Ear Risk Index(MERI),the Ossiculoplasty Outcome Parameter Staging(OOPS),and the recently introduced Ear Environment Risk(EER)scale.While these systems have significantly contributed to preoperative assessment,each presents notable limitations in encompassing all variables affecting surgical success.Therefore,the aim of this paper is to provide a review of the ossiculoplasty prognostic scores and show the benefits,innovations and gaps associated with each.To address these gaps,a novel,modified scoring system is proposed,incorporating previously overlooked but clinically significant factors such as tympanic membrane status,type of tympanoplasty,ossicular replacement material,CT scan findings,and the presence of complicated ear conditions.By synthesizing elements from historical scores with updated clinical insights,the proposed system aims to provide a more holistic and predictive framework for preoperative evaluation.Future multicenter studies are encouraged to validate the efficacy and prognostic power of this new scoring system,with the goal of improving surgical planning and patient counseling in ossiculoplasty.展开更多
According to the 2024 global cancer data from GLOBOCAN,liver cancer ranks the 6th most common malignancy and the 3rd leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide[1].Among these cases,hepatocellular carcinoma(HC...According to the 2024 global cancer data from GLOBOCAN,liver cancer ranks the 6th most common malignancy and the 3rd leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide[1].Among these cases,hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)accounts for approximately 85%−90%[2,3].Its incidence and mortality rates remain persistently high worldwide.However,China has the highest incidence and mortality rates of the disease in the world[4].And the majority of patients are diagnosed at intermediate or advanced stages.Thus,identifying novel tumor biomarkers for early detection and implementing precision therapy has long been a key focus of research.展开更多
A tablet consisting of direct-acting antiviral agents,ledipasvir（a NS5 A protein inhibitor） and sofosbuvir（a NS5 B polymerase inhibitor）,is the first fixed-dose preparation used in the antiviral therapy of hepatit...A tablet consisting of direct-acting antiviral agents,ledipasvir（a NS5 A protein inhibitor） and sofosbuvir（a NS5 B polymerase inhibitor）,is the first fixed-dose preparation used in the antiviral therapy of hepatitis C.A model-based meta-analysis of ledipasvir and GS331007,the primary metabolite of sofosbuvir,enabled the integration of pharmacokinetic（PK） information from separate clinical trials and the quantitative characterization of the population pharmacokinetics of these two drugs.A systematic publication search was conducted for the clinical studies of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir.A total of 401 arm-level aggregate concentrations of GS331007 and 188 concentrations of ledipasvir were used for PK modeling.A two-compartment disposition model was used for both ledipasvir and GS331007.Zero-order absorption was applied for ledipasvir PK modeling,and a combined zero- and first-order absorption was used for the modeling of GS331007.Absorption lag was observed in concentration-time profiles of both ledipasvir and GS331007.To aid the development of direct-acting antiviral drugs,our established PK models provided a basis for the further PK-viral kinetic studies of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir.展开更多
Health management permits the reliability of a system and plays a increasingly important role for achieving efficient system-level maintenance.It has been used for remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics of electroni...Health management permits the reliability of a system and plays a increasingly important role for achieving efficient system-level maintenance.It has been used for remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics of electronics-rich system including avionics.Prognostics and health management（PHM） have become highly desirable to provide avionics with system level health management.This paper presents a health management and fusion prognostic model for avionics system,combining three baseline prognostic approaches that are model-based,data-driven and knowledge-based approaches,and integrates merits as well as eliminates some limitations of each single approach to achieve fusion prognostics and improved prognostic performance of RUL estimation.A fusion model built upon an optimal linear combination forecast model is then utilized to fuse single prognostic algorithm representing the three baseline approaches correspondingly,and the presented case study shows that the fusion prognostics can provide RUL estimation more accurate and more robust than either algorithm alone.展开更多
Machine components and systems, such as gears, bearings, pipes, cutting tools and turbines, may experience various types of faults, such as breakage, crack, pitting, wear, corrosion. If not being properly monitored an...Machine components and systems, such as gears, bearings, pipes, cutting tools and turbines, may experience various types of faults, such as breakage, crack, pitting, wear, corrosion. If not being properly monitored and treated, such faults can propagate and lead to machinery perfor- mance degradation, malfunction, or even severe compo- nent/system failure. It is significant to reliably detect machinery defects, evaluate their severity, predict the fault propagation trends, and schedule optimized maintenance and inspection activities to prevent unexpected failures. Advances in these areas will support ensuring equipment and production reliability, safety, quality and productivity.展开更多
The condition of rotor system must be assessed in order to develop condition-based maintenance for rotating machinery. It is determined by multiple variables such as unbalance degree, misalignment degree, the amount o...The condition of rotor system must be assessed in order to develop condition-based maintenance for rotating machinery. It is determined by multiple variables such as unbalance degree, misalignment degree, the amount of bending deformation of the shaft, occurrence of shaft crack of rotor system and so on. The estimation of the degrees of unbalance and misalignment in flexible coupling-rotor system is discussed. The model-based approach is employed to solve this problem. The models of the equivalent external loads for unbalance and misalignment are derived and analyzed. Then, the degrees of unbalance and misalignment are estimated by analyzing the components of the equivalent external loads of which the frequencies are equal to the 1 and 2 times running frequency respectively. The equivalent external loads are calculated according to the dynamic equation of the original rotor system and the differences between the dynamical responses in normal case and the vibrations when the degree of unbalance or misalignment or both changes. The denoise method based on bandpass filter is used to decrease the effect of noise on the estimation accuracy. The numerical examples are given to show that the proposed approach can estimate the degrees of unbalance and misalignment of the flexible coupling-rotor system accurately.展开更多
This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the developmen...This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the development of models predicting the variables of interest in forest surveys. We present, review and compare three different estimation frameworks where models play a core role： model-assisted, model-based, and hybrid estimation. The first two are well known, whereas the third has only recently been introduced in forest surveys. Hybrid inference mixes design- based and model-based inference, since it relies on a probability sample of auxiliary data and a model predicting the target variable from the auxiliary data.We review studies on large-area forest surveys based on model-assisted, model- based, and hybrid estimation, and discuss advantages and disadvantages of the approaches. We conclude that no general recommendations can be made about whether model-assisted, model-based, or hybrid estimation should be preferred. The choice depends on the objective of the survey and the possibilities to acquire appropriate field and remotely sensed data. We also conclude that modelling approaches can only be successfully applied for estimating target variables such as growing stock volume or biomass, which are adequately related to commonly available remotely sensed data, and thus purely field based surveys remain important for several important forest parameters.展开更多
In this paper,we propose an approach for diagnostics and prognostics of damaged aircraft structures,by combing high-performance fatigue mechanics with filtering theories.Fast&accurate deterministic analyses of fat...In this paper,we propose an approach for diagnostics and prognostics of damaged aircraft structures,by combing high-performance fatigue mechanics with filtering theories.Fast&accurate deterministic analyses of fatigue crack propagations are carried out,by using the Finite Element Alternating Method(FEAM)for computing SIFs,and by using the newly developed Moving Least Squares(MLS)law for computing fatigue crack growth rates.Such algorithms for simulating fatigue crack propagations are embedded in the computer program Safe-Flaw,which is called upon as a subroutine within the probabilistic framework of filter theories.Both the extended Kalman as well as particle filters are applied in this study,to obtain the statistically optimal and semi-optimal estimates of crack lengths,from a series of noisy measurements of crack-lengths over time.For the specific problem,a simple modification to the particle filter,which can drastically reduce the computational burden,is also proposed.Based on the results of such diagnostic analyses,the prognostics of aerospace structures are thereafter achieved,to estimate the probabilistic distribution of the remaining useful life.By using a simple example of a single-crack near a fastener hole,we demonstrate the concept and effectiveness of the proposed framework.This paper thus forms the scientific foundation for the recently proposed concepts of VRAMS(Virtual Risk-Informed Agile Maneuver Sustainment)and Digital Twins of aerospace vehicles.展开更多
Remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform conditionbased maintenance（CBM） for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades,research has been conducted in RUL ...Remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform conditionbased maintenance（CBM） for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades,research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the specific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve,prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algorithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multiple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.展开更多
In previous researches on a model-based diagnostic system, the components are assumed mutually independent. Howerver , the assumption is not always the case because the information about whether a component is faulty ...In previous researches on a model-based diagnostic system, the components are assumed mutually independent. Howerver , the assumption is not always the case because the information about whether a component is faulty or not usually influences our knowledge about other components. Some experts may draw such a conclusion that 'if component m 1 is faulty, then component m 2 may be faulty too'. How can we use this experts' knowledge to aid the diagnosis? Based on Kohlas's probabilistic assumption-based reasoning method, we use Bayes networks to solve this problem. We calculate the posterior fault probability of the components in the observation state. The result is reasonable and reflects the effectiveness of the experts' knowledge.展开更多
Robustness testing for safety-critical embedded software is still a challenge in its nascent stages. In this paper, we propose a practical methodology and implement an environment by employing model-based robustness t...Robustness testing for safety-critical embedded software is still a challenge in its nascent stages. In this paper, we propose a practical methodology and implement an environment by employing model-based robustness testing for embedded software systems. It is a system-level black-box testing approach in which the fault behaviors of embedded software is triggered with the aid of modelbased fault injection by the support of an executable model-driven hardware-in-loop （HIL） testing environment. The prototype implementation of the robustness testing environment based on the proposed approach is experimentally discussed and illustrated by industrial case studies based on several avionics-embedded software systems. The results show that our proposed and implemented robustness testing method and environment are effective to find more bugs, and reduce burdens of testing engineers to enhance efficiency of testing tasks, especially for testing complex embedded systems.展开更多
In early 2018,the Boliden Garpenberg operation implemented an optimized control strategy as an addition to the existing ventilation on demand system.The purpose of the strategy is to further minimize energy use for ma...In early 2018,the Boliden Garpenberg operation implemented an optimized control strategy as an addition to the existing ventilation on demand system.The purpose of the strategy is to further minimize energy use for main and booster fans,whilst also fulfilling airflow setpoints without violating constraints such as min/max differential pressure over fans and interaction of air between areas in mines.Using air flow measurements and a dynamical model of the ventilation system,a mine-wide coordination control of fans can be carried out.The numerical model is data driven and derived from historical operational data or step changes experiments.This makes both initial deployment and lifetime model maintenance,as the mine evolves,a comparably easy operation.The control has been proven to operate in a stable manner over long periods without having to re-calibrate the model.Results prove a 40%decrease in energy use for the fans involved and a greater controllability of air flow.Moreover,a 15%decrease of the total air flow into the mine will give additional proportional heating savings during winter periods.All in all,the multivariable controller shows a correlation between production in the mine and the ventilation system performance superior to all of its predecessors.展开更多
基金partially funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51805262)
文摘This paper proposes a model-based prognostics method that couples the Extended Kalman Filter(EKF) and a new developed linearization method. The proposed prognostics method is developed in the context of fatigue crack propagation in fuselage panels where the model parameters are unknown and the crack propagation is affected by different types of uncertainties. The coupled method is composed of two steps. The first step employs EKF to estimate the unknown model parameters and the current damage state. In the second step, the proposed efficient linearization method is applied to compute analytically the statistical distribution of the damage evolution path in some future time. A numerical case study is implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the coupled EKF-linearization method provides satisfactory results: the EKF algorithm well identifies the model parameters, and the linearization method gives comparable prediction results to Monte Carlo(MC) method while leading to very significant computational cost saving. The proposed prognostics method for fatigue crack growth can be used for developing predictive maintenance strategy for an aircraft fleet, in which case, the computational cost saving is significantly meaningful.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2268206,T2222015)Beijing Natural Science Foundation(4232031)+1 种基金Key Fields Project of DEGP(2021ZDZX1110)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(CJGJZD20220517141801004).
文摘In view of class imbalance in data-driven modeling for Prognostics and Health Management(PHM),existing classification methods may fail in generating effective fault prediction models for the on-board high-speed train control equipment.A virtual sample generation solution based on Generative Adversarial Network(GAN)is proposed to overcome this shortcoming.Aiming at augmenting the sample classes with the imbalanced data problem,the GAN-based virtual sample generation strategy is embedded into the establishment of fault prediction models.Under the PHM framework of the on-board train control system,the virtual sample generation principle and the detailed procedures are presented.With the enhanced class-balancing mechanism and the designed sample augmentation logic,the PHM scheme of the on-board train control equipment has powerful data condition adaptability and can effectively predict the fault probability and life cycle status.Practical data from a specific type of on-board train control system is employed for the validation of the presented solution.The comparative results indicate that GAN-based sample augmentation is capable of achieving a desirable sample balancing level and enhancing the performance of correspondingly derived fault prediction models for the Condition-based Maintenance(CBM)operations.
基金financially supported by the vice chancellor for research and technology of Urmia University
文摘Numerous clustering algorithms are valuable in pattern recognition in forest vegetation,with new ones continually being proposed.While some are well-known,others are underutilized in vegetation science.This study compares the performance of practical iterative reallocation algorithms with model-based clustering algorithms.The data is from forest vegetation in Virginia(United States),the Hyrcanian Forest(Asia),and European beech forests.Practical iterative reallocation algorithms were applied as non-hierarchical methods and Finite Gaussian mixture modeling was used as a model-based clustering method.Due to limitations on dimensionality in model-based clustering,principal coordinates analysis was employed to reduce the dataset’s dimensions.A log transformation was applied to achieve a normal distribution for the pseudo-species data before calculating the Bray-Curtis dissimilarity.The findings indicate that the reallocation of misclassified objects based on silhouette width(OPTSIL)with Flexible-β(-0.25)had the highest mean among the tested clustering algorithms with Silhouette width 1(REMOS1)with Flexible-β(-0.25)second.However,model-based clustering performed poorly.Based on these results,it is recommended using OPTSIL with Flexible-β(-0.25)and REMOS1 with Flexible-β(-0.25)for forest vegetation classification instead of model-based clustering particularly for heterogeneous datasets common in forest vegetation community data.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52272403,52402506)Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi,China(Nos.2022JC-27,2023-JC-QN-0599)。
文摘The reliable,rapid,and accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL)prognostics of aircraft power supply and distribution system are essential for enhancing the reliability and stability of system and reducing the life-cycle costs.To achieve the reliable,rapid,and accurate RUL prognostics,the balance between accuracy and computational burden deserves more attention.In addition,the uncertainty is intrinsically present in RUL prognostic process.Due to the limitation of the uncertainty quantification,the point-wise prognostics strategy is not trustworthy.A Dual Adaptive Sliding-window Hybrid(DASH)RUL probabilistic prognostics strategy is proposed to tackle these deficiencies.The DASH strategy contains two adaptive mechanisms,the adaptive Long Short-Term Memory-Polynomial Regression(LSTM-PR)hybrid prognostics mechanism and the adaptive sliding-window Kernel Density Estimation(KDE)probabilistic prognostics mechanism.Owing to the dual adaptive mechanisms,the DASH strategy can achieve the balance between accuracy and computational burden and obtain the trustworthy probabilistic prognostics.Based on the degradation dataset of aircraft electromagnetic contactors,the superiority of DASH strategy is validated.In terms of probabilistic,point-wise and integrated prognostics performance,the proposed strategy increases by 66.89%,81.73% and 25.84%on average compared with the baseline methods and their variants.
基金supported by the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(Grant No.GZC20242194)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52175251 and 52205268)+1 种基金the Industry Key Technology Research Fund Project of Northwestern Polytechnical University(Grant No.HYGJXM202318)the National Basic Scientific Research Program(Grant No.JCKY2021206B005).
文摘Unlike traditional propeller-driven underwater vehicles,blended-wing-body underwater gliders(BWBUGs)achieve zigzag gliding through periodic adjustments of their net buoyancy,enhancing their cruising capabilities while mini-mizing energy consumption.However,enhancing gliding performance is challenging due to the complex system design and limited design experience.To address this challenge,this paper introduces a model-based,multidisciplinary system design optimization method for BWBUGs at the conceptual design stage.First,a model-based,multidisciplinary co-simulation design framework is established to evaluate both system-level and disciplinary indices of BWBUG performance.A data-driven,many-objective multidisciplinary optimization is subsequently employed to explore the design space,yielding 32 Pareto optimal solutions.Finally,a model-based physical system simulation,which represents the design with the largest hyper-volume contribution among the 32 final designs,is established.Its gliding perfor-mance,validated by component behavior,lays the groundwork for constructing the entire system’s digital prototype.In conclusion,this model-based,multidisciplinary design optimization method effectively generates design schemes for innovative underwater vehicles,facilitating the development of digital prototypes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21A20477,61722302,61573069,61903290)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(DUT19ZD218).
文摘This paper studies the problem of designing a modelbased decentralized dynamic periodic event-triggering mechanism(DDPETM)for networked control systems(NCSs)subject to packet losses and external disturbances.Firstly,the entire NCSs,comprising the triggering mechanism,packet losses and output-based controller,are unified into a hybrid dynamical framework.Secondly,by introducing dynamic triggering variables,the DDPETM is designed to conserve network resources while guaranteeing desired performance properties and tolerating the maximum allowable number of successive packet losses.Thirdly,some stability conditions are derived using the Lyapunov approach.Differing from the zero-order-hold(ZOH)case,the model-based control sufficiently exploits the model information at the controller side.Between two updates,the controller predicts the plant state based on the models and received feedback information.With the model-based control,less transmission may be expected than with ZOH.Finally,numerical examples and comparative experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 62450056 and 62233017).
文摘1. Introduction Prognostics, known as ‘Remaining Useful Life(RUL) prediction', plays a crucial role in health management of critical systems, which is vital for maintaining the operating safety and reliability, and reducing the management costs.1Here, the RUL is usually defined as the length from the current time to the end of the useful life.
文摘This commentary critically appraises the study by Li et al which pioneered the exploration of the triglyceride-glucose(TyG)index as a prognostic marker in hepatitis B virus-related advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing combined camrelizumab and lenvatinib therapy.While we acknowledge the study’s clinical relevance in proposing an easily accessible metabolic biomarker,we delve into the mechanistic plausibility linking insulin resistance to immunotherapy response and angiogenic inhibition.We further critically examine the methodological limitations,including the retrospective design,the populationspecific TyG cut-off value,and unaddressed metabolic confounders.We highlight the imperative for future research to validate its utility across diverse etiologies and treatment settings,and to unravel the underlying immunometabolic pathways.
文摘Ossiculoplasty remains a challenging surgical procedure,with outcomes heavily influenced by diverse anatomical and pathological factors.Over the decades,numerous scoring systems have been developed to predict the prognosis of ossiculoplasty,each emphasizing different variables such as ossicular status,middle ear environment,and surgical history.This paper provides a comprehensive review of the evolution of prognostic scoring systems,including Austin's original ossicular classification,Bellucci's otorrhea staging,the Middle Ear Risk Index(MERI),the Ossiculoplasty Outcome Parameter Staging(OOPS),and the recently introduced Ear Environment Risk(EER)scale.While these systems have significantly contributed to preoperative assessment,each presents notable limitations in encompassing all variables affecting surgical success.Therefore,the aim of this paper is to provide a review of the ossiculoplasty prognostic scores and show the benefits,innovations and gaps associated with each.To address these gaps,a novel,modified scoring system is proposed,incorporating previously overlooked but clinically significant factors such as tympanic membrane status,type of tympanoplasty,ossicular replacement material,CT scan findings,and the presence of complicated ear conditions.By synthesizing elements from historical scores with updated clinical insights,the proposed system aims to provide a more holistic and predictive framework for preoperative evaluation.Future multicenter studies are encouraged to validate the efficacy and prognostic power of this new scoring system,with the goal of improving surgical planning and patient counseling in ossiculoplasty.
基金supported by a grant from the Central Level Public Welfare Research Institutes Basic Research Expenses of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(No.2023-RW320-05)。
文摘According to the 2024 global cancer data from GLOBOCAN,liver cancer ranks the 6th most common malignancy and the 3rd leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide[1].Among these cases,hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)accounts for approximately 85%−90%[2,3].Its incidence and mortality rates remain persistently high worldwide.However,China has the highest incidence and mortality rates of the disease in the world[4].And the majority of patients are diagnosed at intermediate or advanced stages.Thus,identifying novel tumor biomarkers for early detection and implementing precision therapy has long been a key focus of research.
基金Janssen Research & DevelopmentChina，Pfizer Scholarship for Pharmacometrics during this project
文摘A tablet consisting of direct-acting antiviral agents,ledipasvir（a NS5 A protein inhibitor） and sofosbuvir（a NS5 B polymerase inhibitor）,is the first fixed-dose preparation used in the antiviral therapy of hepatitis C.A model-based meta-analysis of ledipasvir and GS331007,the primary metabolite of sofosbuvir,enabled the integration of pharmacokinetic（PK） information from separate clinical trials and the quantitative characterization of the population pharmacokinetics of these two drugs.A systematic publication search was conducted for the clinical studies of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir.A total of 401 arm-level aggregate concentrations of GS331007 and 188 concentrations of ledipasvir were used for PK modeling.A two-compartment disposition model was used for both ledipasvir and GS331007.Zero-order absorption was applied for ledipasvir PK modeling,and a combined zero- and first-order absorption was used for the modeling of GS331007.Absorption lag was observed in concentration-time profiles of both ledipasvir and GS331007.To aid the development of direct-acting antiviral drugs,our established PK models provided a basis for the further PK-viral kinetic studies of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir.
文摘Health management permits the reliability of a system and plays a increasingly important role for achieving efficient system-level maintenance.It has been used for remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics of electronics-rich system including avionics.Prognostics and health management（PHM） have become highly desirable to provide avionics with system level health management.This paper presents a health management and fusion prognostic model for avionics system,combining three baseline prognostic approaches that are model-based,data-driven and knowledge-based approaches,and integrates merits as well as eliminates some limitations of each single approach to achieve fusion prognostics and improved prognostic performance of RUL estimation.A fusion model built upon an optimal linear combination forecast model is then utilized to fuse single prognostic algorithm representing the three baseline approaches correspondingly,and the presented case study shows that the fusion prognostics can provide RUL estimation more accurate and more robust than either algorithm alone.
文摘Machine components and systems, such as gears, bearings, pipes, cutting tools and turbines, may experience various types of faults, such as breakage, crack, pitting, wear, corrosion. If not being properly monitored and treated, such faults can propagate and lead to machinery perfor- mance degradation, malfunction, or even severe compo- nent/system failure. It is significant to reliably detect machinery defects, evaluate their severity, predict the fault propagation trends, and schedule optimized maintenance and inspection activities to prevent unexpected failures. Advances in these areas will support ensuring equipment and production reliability, safety, quality and productivity.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. 10772061)Heilongjiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. ZJG0704)
文摘The condition of rotor system must be assessed in order to develop condition-based maintenance for rotating machinery. It is determined by multiple variables such as unbalance degree, misalignment degree, the amount of bending deformation of the shaft, occurrence of shaft crack of rotor system and so on. The estimation of the degrees of unbalance and misalignment in flexible coupling-rotor system is discussed. The model-based approach is employed to solve this problem. The models of the equivalent external loads for unbalance and misalignment are derived and analyzed. Then, the degrees of unbalance and misalignment are estimated by analyzing the components of the equivalent external loads of which the frequencies are equal to the 1 and 2 times running frequency respectively. The equivalent external loads are calculated according to the dynamic equation of the original rotor system and the differences between the dynamical responses in normal case and the vibrations when the degree of unbalance or misalignment or both changes. The denoise method based on bandpass filter is used to decrease the effect of noise on the estimation accuracy. The numerical examples are given to show that the proposed approach can estimate the degrees of unbalance and misalignment of the flexible coupling-rotor system accurately.
文摘This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the development of models predicting the variables of interest in forest surveys. We present, review and compare three different estimation frameworks where models play a core role： model-assisted, model-based, and hybrid estimation. The first two are well known, whereas the third has only recently been introduced in forest surveys. Hybrid inference mixes design- based and model-based inference, since it relies on a probability sample of auxiliary data and a model predicting the target variable from the auxiliary data.We review studies on large-area forest surveys based on model-assisted, model- based, and hybrid estimation, and discuss advantages and disadvantages of the approaches. We conclude that no general recommendations can be made about whether model-assisted, model-based, or hybrid estimation should be preferred. The choice depends on the objective of the survey and the possibilities to acquire appropriate field and remotely sensed data. We also conclude that modelling approaches can only be successfully applied for estimating target variables such as growing stock volume or biomass, which are adequately related to commonly available remotely sensed data, and thus purely field based surveys remain important for several important forest parameters.
文摘In this paper,we propose an approach for diagnostics and prognostics of damaged aircraft structures,by combing high-performance fatigue mechanics with filtering theories.Fast&accurate deterministic analyses of fatigue crack propagations are carried out,by using the Finite Element Alternating Method(FEAM)for computing SIFs,and by using the newly developed Moving Least Squares(MLS)law for computing fatigue crack growth rates.Such algorithms for simulating fatigue crack propagations are embedded in the computer program Safe-Flaw,which is called upon as a subroutine within the probabilistic framework of filter theories.Both the extended Kalman as well as particle filters are applied in this study,to obtain the statistically optimal and semi-optimal estimates of crack lengths,from a series of noisy measurements of crack-lengths over time.For the specific problem,a simple modification to the particle filter,which can drastically reduce the computational burden,is also proposed.Based on the results of such diagnostic analyses,the prognostics of aerospace structures are thereafter achieved,to estimate the probabilistic distribution of the remaining useful life.By using a simple example of a single-crack near a fastener hole,we demonstrate the concept and effectiveness of the proposed framework.This paper thus forms the scientific foundation for the recently proposed concepts of VRAMS(Virtual Risk-Informed Agile Maneuver Sustainment)and Digital Twins of aerospace vehicles.
基金co-supported by the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China (No. 61232002)the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 60939003)+3 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Nos. 2012M521081, 2013T60537)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (No. NS2014066)Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China (No. 1301107C)Philosophy and Social Science Research Projects in Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu of China (No. 2014SJD041)
文摘Remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform conditionbased maintenance（CBM） for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades,research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the specific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve,prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algorithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multiple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.
文摘In previous researches on a model-based diagnostic system, the components are assumed mutually independent. Howerver , the assumption is not always the case because the information about whether a component is faulty or not usually influences our knowledge about other components. Some experts may draw such a conclusion that 'if component m 1 is faulty, then component m 2 may be faulty too'. How can we use this experts' knowledge to aid the diagnosis? Based on Kohlas's probabilistic assumption-based reasoning method, we use Bayes networks to solve this problem. We calculate the posterior fault probability of the components in the observation state. The result is reasonable and reflects the effectiveness of the experts' knowledge.
基金the Aeronautics Science Foundation of China(No.2011ZD51055)Science and Technology on Reliability&Environmental Engineering Laboratory(No.302367)the National Pre-Research Foundation of China(No.51319080201)
文摘Robustness testing for safety-critical embedded software is still a challenge in its nascent stages. In this paper, we propose a practical methodology and implement an environment by employing model-based robustness testing for embedded software systems. It is a system-level black-box testing approach in which the fault behaviors of embedded software is triggered with the aid of modelbased fault injection by the support of an executable model-driven hardware-in-loop （HIL） testing environment. The prototype implementation of the robustness testing environment based on the proposed approach is experimentally discussed and illustrated by industrial case studies based on several avionics-embedded software systems. The results show that our proposed and implemented robustness testing method and environment are effective to find more bugs, and reduce burdens of testing engineers to enhance efficiency of testing tasks, especially for testing complex embedded systems.
文摘In early 2018,the Boliden Garpenberg operation implemented an optimized control strategy as an addition to the existing ventilation on demand system.The purpose of the strategy is to further minimize energy use for main and booster fans,whilst also fulfilling airflow setpoints without violating constraints such as min/max differential pressure over fans and interaction of air between areas in mines.Using air flow measurements and a dynamical model of the ventilation system,a mine-wide coordination control of fans can be carried out.The numerical model is data driven and derived from historical operational data or step changes experiments.This makes both initial deployment and lifetime model maintenance,as the mine evolves,a comparably easy operation.The control has been proven to operate in a stable manner over long periods without having to re-calibrate the model.Results prove a 40%decrease in energy use for the fans involved and a greater controllability of air flow.Moreover,a 15%decrease of the total air flow into the mine will give additional proportional heating savings during winter periods.All in all,the multivariable controller shows a correlation between production in the mine and the ventilation system performance superior to all of its predecessors.
