Greenhouse experiments were conducted to determine the ammonia volatilization loss with or withoutapplication of surface film-forming material (SFFM). Ammonia volatilization loss was estimated by the modeldeveloped by...Greenhouse experiments were conducted to determine the ammonia volatilization loss with or withoutapplication of surface film-forming material (SFFM). Ammonia volatilization loss was estimated by the modeldeveloped by Jayaweera and Mikkelsen. The results showed that the model could estimate and predict wellammonia volatilization loss also in case of SFFM addition. There was an emended factor B introduced tothe model calculation when SFPM was used. Simulated calculation showed that the effect of factor B onNHa loss was obvious. The value of B was governed by SFFM and the environmental conditions. Sensitivityanalysis suggested that pH was the main factor coatrolling NH3 volatilization loss from the floodwater.展开更多
An airship model is made-up of aerostatic,aerodynamic,dynamic,and propulsive forces and torques.Besides others,the computation of aerodynamic forces and torques is difficult.Usually,wind tunnel experimentation and pot...An airship model is made-up of aerostatic,aerodynamic,dynamic,and propulsive forces and torques.Besides others,the computation of aerodynamic forces and torques is difficult.Usually,wind tunnel experimentation and potential flow theory are used for their calculations.However,the limitations of these methods pose difficulties in their accurate calculation.In this work,an online estimation scheme based on unscented Kalman filter(UKF)is proposed for their calculation.The proposed method introduces six auxiliary states for the complete aerodynamic model.UKF uses an extended model and provides an estimate of a complete state vector along with auxiliary states.The proposed method uses the minimum auxiliary state variables for the approximation of the complete aerodynamic model that makes it computationally less intensive.UKF estimation performance is evaluated by developing a nonlinear simulation environment for University of Engineering and Technology,Taxila(UETT)airship.Estimator performance is validated by performing the error analysis based on estimation error and 2-σ uncertainty bound.For the same problem,the extended Kalman filter(EKF)is also implemented and its results are compared with UKF.The simulation results show that UKF successfully estimates the forces and torques due to the aerodynamic model with small estimation error and the comparative analysis with EKF shows that UKF improves the estimation results and also it is more suitable for the under-consideration problem.展开更多
The variable-structure multiple-model（VSMM）approach,one of the multiple-model（MM）methods,is a popular and effective approach in handling problems with mode uncertainties.The model sequence set adaptation（MSA）is ...The variable-structure multiple-model（VSMM）approach,one of the multiple-model（MM）methods,is a popular and effective approach in handling problems with mode uncertainties.The model sequence set adaptation（MSA）is the key to design a better VSMM.However,MSA methods in the literature have big room to improve both theoretically and practically.To this end,we propose a feedback structure based entropy approach that could fnd the model sequence sets with the smallest size under certain conditions.The fltered data are fed back in real time and can be used by the minimum entropy（ME）based VSMM algorithms,i.e.,MEVSMM.Firstly,the full Markov chains are used to achieve optimal solutions.Secondly,the myopic method together with particle flter（PF）and the challenge match algorithm are also used to achieve sub-optimal solutions,a trade-off between practicability and optimality.The numerical results show that the proposed algorithm provides not only refned model sets but also a good robustness margin and very high accuracy.展开更多
Inspired by Model Predictive Interaction Control(MPIC),this paper proposes differential models for estimating contact geometric parameters and normal-friction forces and formulates an optimal control problem with mult...Inspired by Model Predictive Interaction Control(MPIC),this paper proposes differential models for estimating contact geometric parameters and normal-friction forces and formulates an optimal control problem with multiple constraints to allow robots to perform rigid-soft heterogeneous contact tasks.Within the MPIC,robot dynamics are linearized,and Extended Kalman Filters are used for the online estimation of geometry-aware parameters.Meanwhile,a geometry-aware Hertz contact model is introduced for the online estimation of contact forces.We then implement the force-position coordinate optimization by incorporating the contact parameters and interaction force constraints into a gradient-based optimization MPC.Experimental validations were designed for two contact modes:“single-point contact”and“continuous contact”,involving materials with four different Young’s moduli and tested in human arm“relaxation-contraction”task.Results indicate that our framework ensures consistent geometry-aware parameter estimation and maintains reliable force interaction to guarantee safety.Our method reduces the maximum impact force by 50%and decreases the average force error by 42%.The proposed framework has potential applications in medical and industrial tasks involving the manipulation of rigid,soft,and deformable objects.展开更多
The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of ...The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of mechanical behaviors.However,constitutive model parameters cannot be evaluated accurately with a limited amount of test data,resulting in uncertainty in the prediction of stress-strain curves.This paper proposes a Bayesian analysis framework to address this issue.It combines the Bayesian updating with the structural reliability and adaptive conditional sampling methods to assess the equation parameter of constitutive models.Based on the triaxial and ring shear tests on shear zone soils from the Huangtupo landslide,a statistical damage constitutive model and a critical state hypoplastic constitutive model were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Moreover,the parameter uncertainty effects of the damage constitutive model on landslide stability were investigated.Results show that reasonable assessments of the constitutive model parameter can be well realized.The variability of stress-strain curves is strongly related to the model prediction performance.The estimation uncertainty of constitutive model parameters should not be ignored for the landslide stability calculation.Our study provides a reference for uncertainty analysis and parameter assessment of the constitutive model.展开更多
In this paper a new recursive method for ARMA model estimation is given. Same as in [1], theorder's estimator is strongly consistent, and the parameter's estimators defer to CLT and LILunder a natural conditio...In this paper a new recursive method for ARMA model estimation is given. Same as in [1], theorder's estimator is strongly consistent, and the parameter's estimators defer to CLT and LILunder a natural condition. Compared with the previous metheds suggested by Hannan & Kavalieris(1984), Wang Shouren & Chen Zhaoguo (1985) and Franke (1985), this methed has some advantages:the amount of calculat on work is smaller, the minimum-phase property of coeffcient estimators canbe guaranteed,the BAN estimators for MA or AR model can be obtained directly,and the simulationshows that this method is more accurate in estimating the order and parameters.展开更多
For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang For ...For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang-bang evasive maneuver with a random switching time.Combined Fast multiple model adaptive estimation(Fast MMAE)algorithm,the cooperative guidance law takes detection configuration affecting the accuracy of interception into consideration.Introduced the detection error model related to the line-of-sight(LOS)separation angle of two interceptors,an optimal cooperative guidance law solving the optimization problem is designed to modulate the LOS separation angle to reduce the estimation error and improve the interception performance.Due to the uncertainty of the target bang-bang maneuver switching time and the effective fitting of its multi-modal motion,Fast MMAE is introduced to identify its maneuver switching time and estimate the acceleration of the target to track and intercept the target accurately.The designed cooperative optimal guidance law with Fast MMAE has better estimation ability and interception performance than the traditional guidance law and estimation method via Monte Carlo simulation.展开更多
Prognosis is a key technology to improve reliability,safety and maintainability of products,a lot of researchers have been devoted to this technology.But to improve the predict accuracy of remaining life of products h...Prognosis is a key technology to improve reliability,safety and maintainability of products,a lot of researchers have been devoted to this technology.But to improve the predict accuracy of remaining life of products has been difficult.To predict the lifetime specification of pneumatic cylinders with high reliability and long lifetime and small specimen,this paper put forward the prognosis algorithm based on the path classification and estimation（PACE） model.PACE model is based entirely on failure data instead of failure threshold.Pneumatic cylinders normally characterize with failure mechanism wear and tear.Since the minimum working pressure increases with the number of working cycles,the minimum working pressure is chosen as degradation signal.PACE model is fundamentally composed of two operations：path classification and remaining useful life（RUL） estimation.Path classification is to classify a current degradation path as belonging to one or more of previously collected exemplary degradation paths.RUL estimation is to use the resulting memberships to estimate the remaining useful life.In order for verification and validation of PACE prognostic method,six pneumatic cylinders are tested.The test data is analyzed by PACE prognostics.It is found that the PACE based prognosis method has higher prediction accuracy and smaller variance and PACE model is significantly outperform population based prognostics especially for small specimen condition.PACE model based method solved the problem of prediction accuracy for small specimen pneumatic cylinders＇ prognosis.展开更多
An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only smal...An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.展开更多
The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncer...The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncertain dynamics.It is prone to wind disturbances that offer a challenge for a trajectory tracking control design.This paper addresses the airship trajectory tracking problem having time varying reference path.A lumped parameter estimation approach under model uncertainties and wind disturbances is opted against distributed parameters.It uses extended Kalman filter(EKF)for uncertainty and disturbance estimation.The estimated parameters are used by sliding mode controller(SMC)for ultimate control of airship trajectory tracking.This comprehensive algorithm,EKF based SMC(ESMC),is used as a robust solution to track airship trajectory.The proposed estimator provides the estimates of wind disturbances as well as model uncertainty due to the mass matrix variations and aerodynamic model inaccuracies.The stability and convergence of the proposed method are investigated using the Lyapunov stability analysis.The simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently tracks the desired trajectory.The method solves the stability,convergence,and chattering problem of SMC under model uncertainties and wind disturbances.展开更多
A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Mar...A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Marquardt Method (i. e.,Dampled Least Square Method) while initial values inoptimization are produced by Monte-Carlo Method. The Potential ofthe method as a parameter estimation aid is demonstrated for theapplication to the Liangyi Rver, JiangSu Province of China and by aspecial comparison with Gauss Method.展开更多
We develop an interconnect crosstalk estimation model on the assumption of linearity for CMOS device. First, we analyze the terminal response of RC model on the worst condition from theS field to the time domain. The ...We develop an interconnect crosstalk estimation model on the assumption of linearity for CMOS device. First, we analyze the terminal response of RC model on the worst condition from theS field to the time domain. The exact 3 order coefficients inS field are obtained due to the interconnect tree model. Based on this, a crosstalk peak estimation formula is presented. Unlike other crosstalk equations in the literature, this formula is only used coupled capacitance and grand capacitance as parameter. Experimental results show that, compared with the SPICE results, the estimation formulae are simple and accurate. So the model is expected to be used in such fields as layout-driven logic and high level synthesis, performance-driven floorplanning and interconnect planning.展开更多
Estimation of state-of-charge and state-of-health for batteries is one of the most important feature for modern battery management system(BMS).Robust or adaptive methods are the most investigated because a more intell...Estimation of state-of-charge and state-of-health for batteries is one of the most important feature for modern battery management system(BMS).Robust or adaptive methods are the most investigated because a more intelligent BMS could lead to sensible cost reduction of the entire battery system.We propose a new robust method,called ERMES(extendible range multi-model estimator),for determining an estimated state-of-charge(SoC),an estimated state-of-health(SoH)and a prediction of uncertainty of the estimates(state-of-uncertainty—SoU),thanks to which it is possible to monitor the validity of the estimates and adjust it,extending the robustness against a wider range of uncertainty,if necessary.Specifically,a finite number of models in state-space form are considered starting from a modified Thevenin battery model.Each model is characterized by a hypothesis of SoH value.An iterated extended Kalman filter(EKF)is then applied to each model in parallel,estimating for each one the SoC state variable.Residual errors are then considered to fuse both the estimated SoC and SoH from the bank of EKF,yielding the overall SoC and SoH estimates,respectively.In addition,a figure of uncertainty of such estimates is also provided.展开更多
A Recent paper by Ma et al.,claims to estimate the state of charge of Lithium-ion batteries with a fractionalorder impedance model including a Warburg and a constant phase element(CPE)with a maximum error of 0.5%[1].T...A Recent paper by Ma et al.,claims to estimate the state of charge of Lithium-ion batteries with a fractionalorder impedance model including a Warburg and a constant phase element(CPE)with a maximum error of 0.5%[1].The proposed equivalent circuit model from[1]is reproduced in Fig.1.展开更多
A new relative efficiency of parameter estimation for generalized Gauss-Markov linear model was proposed. Its lower bound was also derived. Its properties were explored in comparison with three currently very popular ...A new relative efficiency of parameter estimation for generalized Gauss-Markov linear model was proposed. Its lower bound was also derived. Its properties were explored in comparison with three currently very popular relative efficiencies. The new relative efficiency not only reflects sensitively the error and loss caused by the substitution of the least square estimator for the best linear unbiased estimator, but also overcomes the disadvantage of weak dependence on the design matrix.展开更多
Parameter estimation plays a critical role for the application and development of S-shaped growth model in the agricultural sciences and others.In this paper,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm based on t...Parameter estimation plays a critical role for the application and development of S-shaped growth model in the agricultural sciences and others.In this paper,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm based on the diffusion phenomenon（DPPSO） was employed to estimate the parameters for this model.Under the sense of least squares,the parameter estimation problem of S-shaped growth model,taking the Gompertz and Logistic models for example,is transformed into a multi-dimensional function optimization problem.The results show that the DPPSO algorithm can effectively estimate the parameters of the S-shaped growth model.展开更多
Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of...Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of influence is very useful and important for the effective establishment of a reduction plan. In general, the information is supported by a red-tide（a.k.a algal bloom） model. The performance of the model is highly dependent on the accuracy of parameters, which are the coefficients of functions approximating the biological growth and loss patterns of the C. polykrikoides. These parameters have been estimated using the bioassay data composed of growth-limiting factor and net growth rate value pairs. In the case of the C. polykrikoides, the parameters are different from each other in accordance with the used data because the bioassay data are sufficient compared to the other algal species. The parameters estimated by one specific dataset can be viewed as locally-optimized because they are adjusted only by that dataset. In cases where the other one data set is used, the estimation error might be considerable. In this study, the parameters are estimated by all available data sets without the use of only one specific data set and thus can be considered globally optimized. The cost function for the optimization is defined as the integrated mean squared estimation error, i.e., the difference between the values of the experimental and estimated rates. Based on quantitative error analysis, the root-mean squared errors of the global parameters show smaller values, approximately 25%–50%, than the values of the local parameters. In addition, bias is removed completely in the case of the globally estimated parameters. The parameter sets can be used as the reference default values of a red-tide model because they are optimal and representative. However, additional tuning of the parameters using the in-situ monitoring data is highly required.As opposed to the bioassay data, it is necessary because the bioassay data have limitations in terms of the in-situ coastal conditions.展开更多
This study demonstrates the complexity and importance of water quality as a measure of the health and sustainability of ecosystems that directly influence biodiversity,human health,and the world economy.The predictabi...This study demonstrates the complexity and importance of water quality as a measure of the health and sustainability of ecosystems that directly influence biodiversity,human health,and the world economy.The predictability of water quality thus plays a crucial role in managing our ecosystems to make informed decisions and,hence,proper environmental management.This study addresses these challenges by proposing an effective machine learning methodology applied to the“Water Quality”public dataset.The methodology has modeled the dataset suitable for providing prediction classification analysis with high values of the evaluating parameters such as accuracy,sensitivity,and specificity.The proposed methodology is based on two novel approaches:(a)the SMOTE method to deal with unbalanced data and(b)the skillfully involved classical machine learning models.This paper uses Random Forests,Decision Trees,XGBoost,and Support Vector Machines because they can handle large datasets,train models for handling skewed datasets,and provide high accuracy in water quality classification.A key contribution of this work is the use of custom sampling strategies within the SMOTE approach,which significantly enhanced performance metrics and improved class imbalance handling.The results demonstrate significant improvements in predictive performance,achieving the highest reported metrics:accuracy(98.92%vs.96.06%),sensitivity(98.3%vs.71.26%),and F1 score(98.37%vs.79.74%)using the XGBoost model.These improvements underscore the effectiveness of our custom SMOTE sampling strategies in addressing class imbalance.The findings contribute to environmental management by enabling ecology specialists to develop more accurate strategies for monitoring,assessing,and managing drinking water quality,ensuring better ecosystem and public health outcomes.展开更多
The establishment of crop yield estimating model based on microwave and optical satellite images can conduct the mutual verification of the accuracy of the reported crop yield and the precision of the estimating model...The establishment of crop yield estimating model based on microwave and optical satellite images can conduct the mutual verification of the accuracy of the reported crop yield and the precision of the estimating model. With Shou County and Huaiyuan County of Anhui Province as the experimental fields of winter wheat producing areas, the linear winter wheat yield estimating models were established by adopting backscattering coefficient and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index（NDVI） based on images from the synthetic aperture radar（SAR）—RDARSAT-2 and HJ satellite photographed in mid-April and early May, 2014, and then comparisons were conducted on the accuracy of the yield estimating models. The accuracies of the yield estimating models established using co-polarized（HH） and cross-polarized（HV） modes of SAR in Jiangou Town, Shou County were 68.37% and 74.01%, respectively, while the accuracies in Longkang Town, Huaiyuan County were 63.10%and 69.10%, respectively. Accuracies of yield estimating models established by HJ satellite data were 69.52% and 66.43% in Shou County and Huaiyuan County, respectively. Accuracies of winter yield estimating model based on HJ satellite data and that based on SAR were closed, and the yield difference of winter wheat in the lodging region was analyzed in detail. The model results laid the foundation and accumulated experience for the verification, parameters correction and promotion of the winter wheat yield estimating model.展开更多
文摘Greenhouse experiments were conducted to determine the ammonia volatilization loss with or withoutapplication of surface film-forming material (SFFM). Ammonia volatilization loss was estimated by the modeldeveloped by Jayaweera and Mikkelsen. The results showed that the model could estimate and predict wellammonia volatilization loss also in case of SFFM addition. There was an emended factor B introduced tothe model calculation when SFPM was used. Simulated calculation showed that the effect of factor B onNHa loss was obvious. The value of B was governed by SFFM and the environmental conditions. Sensitivityanalysis suggested that pH was the main factor coatrolling NH3 volatilization loss from the floodwater.
文摘An airship model is made-up of aerostatic,aerodynamic,dynamic,and propulsive forces and torques.Besides others,the computation of aerodynamic forces and torques is difficult.Usually,wind tunnel experimentation and potential flow theory are used for their calculations.However,the limitations of these methods pose difficulties in their accurate calculation.In this work,an online estimation scheme based on unscented Kalman filter(UKF)is proposed for their calculation.The proposed method introduces six auxiliary states for the complete aerodynamic model.UKF uses an extended model and provides an estimate of a complete state vector along with auxiliary states.The proposed method uses the minimum auxiliary state variables for the approximation of the complete aerodynamic model that makes it computationally less intensive.UKF estimation performance is evaluated by developing a nonlinear simulation environment for University of Engineering and Technology,Taxila(UETT)airship.Estimator performance is validated by performing the error analysis based on estimation error and 2-σ uncertainty bound.For the same problem,the extended Kalman filter(EKF)is also implemented and its results are compared with UKF.The simulation results show that UKF successfully estimates the forces and torques due to the aerodynamic model with small estimation error and the comparative analysis with EKF shows that UKF improves the estimation results and also it is more suitable for the under-consideration problem.
基金supported in part by National Basic Research Program of China(No.2012CB821200)in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61174024)
文摘The variable-structure multiple-model（VSMM）approach,one of the multiple-model（MM）methods,is a popular and effective approach in handling problems with mode uncertainties.The model sequence set adaptation（MSA）is the key to design a better VSMM.However,MSA methods in the literature have big room to improve both theoretically and practically.To this end,we propose a feedback structure based entropy approach that could fnd the model sequence sets with the smallest size under certain conditions.The fltered data are fed back in real time and can be used by the minimum entropy（ME）based VSMM algorithms,i.e.,MEVSMM.Firstly,the full Markov chains are used to achieve optimal solutions.Secondly,the myopic method together with particle flter（PF）and the challenge match algorithm are also used to achieve sub-optimal solutions,a trade-off between practicability and optimality.The numerical results show that the proposed algorithm provides not only refned model sets but also a good robustness margin and very high accuracy.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62203126)the Science and Technology Plan Project of Guangdong Province(2023A0505010014)+1 种基金the Innovation and Technology Commission of the HKSAR Government under the InnoHK Initiative,and in part by the Key Areas R&D Program of Dongguan City(20201200300062)the GDAS’Project of Science and Technology Development(2022GDASZH-2022010108).
文摘Inspired by Model Predictive Interaction Control(MPIC),this paper proposes differential models for estimating contact geometric parameters and normal-friction forces and formulates an optimal control problem with multiple constraints to allow robots to perform rigid-soft heterogeneous contact tasks.Within the MPIC,robot dynamics are linearized,and Extended Kalman Filters are used for the online estimation of geometry-aware parameters.Meanwhile,a geometry-aware Hertz contact model is introduced for the online estimation of contact forces.We then implement the force-position coordinate optimization by incorporating the contact parameters and interaction force constraints into a gradient-based optimization MPC.Experimental validations were designed for two contact modes:“single-point contact”and“continuous contact”,involving materials with four different Young’s moduli and tested in human arm“relaxation-contraction”task.Results indicate that our framework ensures consistent geometry-aware parameter estimation and maintains reliable force interaction to guarantee safety.Our method reduces the maximum impact force by 50%and decreases the average force error by 42%.The proposed framework has potential applications in medical and industrial tasks involving the manipulation of rigid,soft,and deformable objects.
基金supported by the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Geological Survey and Evaluation of Ministry of Education(No.GLAB 2024ZR03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42407248)+2 种基金the Guizhou Provincial Basic Research Program(Natural Science)(No.QKHJC-[2023]-YB066)the Key Laboratory of Smart Earth(No.KF2023YB04-02)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of mechanical behaviors.However,constitutive model parameters cannot be evaluated accurately with a limited amount of test data,resulting in uncertainty in the prediction of stress-strain curves.This paper proposes a Bayesian analysis framework to address this issue.It combines the Bayesian updating with the structural reliability and adaptive conditional sampling methods to assess the equation parameter of constitutive models.Based on the triaxial and ring shear tests on shear zone soils from the Huangtupo landslide,a statistical damage constitutive model and a critical state hypoplastic constitutive model were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Moreover,the parameter uncertainty effects of the damage constitutive model on landslide stability were investigated.Results show that reasonable assessments of the constitutive model parameter can be well realized.The variability of stress-strain curves is strongly related to the model prediction performance.The estimation uncertainty of constitutive model parameters should not be ignored for the landslide stability calculation.Our study provides a reference for uncertainty analysis and parameter assessment of the constitutive model.
文摘In this paper a new recursive method for ARMA model estimation is given. Same as in [1], theorder's estimator is strongly consistent, and the parameter's estimators defer to CLT and LILunder a natural condition. Compared with the previous metheds suggested by Hannan & Kavalieris(1984), Wang Shouren & Chen Zhaoguo (1985) and Franke (1985), this methed has some advantages:the amount of calculat on work is smaller, the minimum-phase property of coeffcient estimators canbe guaranteed,the BAN estimators for MA or AR model can be obtained directly,and the simulationshows that this method is more accurate in estimating the order and parameters.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation(NNSF)of China under grant no.61673386,62073335the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2017M613201,2019T120944).
文摘For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang-bang evasive maneuver with a random switching time.Combined Fast multiple model adaptive estimation(Fast MMAE)algorithm,the cooperative guidance law takes detection configuration affecting the accuracy of interception into consideration.Introduced the detection error model related to the line-of-sight(LOS)separation angle of two interceptors,an optimal cooperative guidance law solving the optimization problem is designed to modulate the LOS separation angle to reduce the estimation error and improve the interception performance.Due to the uncertainty of the target bang-bang maneuver switching time and the effective fitting of its multi-modal motion,Fast MMAE is introduced to identify its maneuver switching time and estimate the acceleration of the target to track and intercept the target accurately.The designed cooperative optimal guidance law with Fast MMAE has better estimation ability and interception performance than the traditional guidance law and estimation method via Monte Carlo simulation.
基金supported by the Laboratory of Aviation Safety Technical Analysis and Appraisal of China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology(Grant No. 2009-02)
文摘Prognosis is a key technology to improve reliability,safety and maintainability of products,a lot of researchers have been devoted to this technology.But to improve the predict accuracy of remaining life of products has been difficult.To predict the lifetime specification of pneumatic cylinders with high reliability and long lifetime and small specimen,this paper put forward the prognosis algorithm based on the path classification and estimation（PACE） model.PACE model is based entirely on failure data instead of failure threshold.Pneumatic cylinders normally characterize with failure mechanism wear and tear.Since the minimum working pressure increases with the number of working cycles,the minimum working pressure is chosen as degradation signal.PACE model is fundamentally composed of two operations：path classification and remaining useful life（RUL） estimation.Path classification is to classify a current degradation path as belonging to one or more of previously collected exemplary degradation paths.RUL estimation is to use the resulting memberships to estimate the remaining useful life.In order for verification and validation of PACE prognostic method,six pneumatic cylinders are tested.The test data is analyzed by PACE prognostics.It is found that the PACE based prognosis method has higher prediction accuracy and smaller variance and PACE model is significantly outperform population based prognostics especially for small specimen condition.PACE model based method solved the problem of prediction accuracy for small specimen pneumatic cylinders＇ prognosis.
基金Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education (CXZZ11_0193)NUAA Research Funding (NJ2010009)
文摘An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.
文摘The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncertain dynamics.It is prone to wind disturbances that offer a challenge for a trajectory tracking control design.This paper addresses the airship trajectory tracking problem having time varying reference path.A lumped parameter estimation approach under model uncertainties and wind disturbances is opted against distributed parameters.It uses extended Kalman filter(EKF)for uncertainty and disturbance estimation.The estimated parameters are used by sliding mode controller(SMC)for ultimate control of airship trajectory tracking.This comprehensive algorithm,EKF based SMC(ESMC),is used as a robust solution to track airship trajectory.The proposed estimator provides the estimates of wind disturbances as well as model uncertainty due to the mass matrix variations and aerodynamic model inaccuracies.The stability and convergence of the proposed method are investigated using the Lyapunov stability analysis.The simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently tracks the desired trajectory.The method solves the stability,convergence,and chattering problem of SMC under model uncertainties and wind disturbances.
文摘A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Marquardt Method (i. e.,Dampled Least Square Method) while initial values inoptimization are produced by Monte-Carlo Method. The Potential ofthe method as a parameter estimation aid is demonstrated for theapplication to the Liangyi Rver, JiangSu Province of China and by aspecial comparison with Gauss Method.
基金SupportedbytheNationalHighTechnologyResearchandDevelopmentProgramofChina (863Plan) (863 SOC Y 3 3 2 )
文摘We develop an interconnect crosstalk estimation model on the assumption of linearity for CMOS device. First, we analyze the terminal response of RC model on the worst condition from theS field to the time domain. The exact 3 order coefficients inS field are obtained due to the interconnect tree model. Based on this, a crosstalk peak estimation formula is presented. Unlike other crosstalk equations in the literature, this formula is only used coupled capacitance and grand capacitance as parameter. Experimental results show that, compared with the SPICE results, the estimation formulae are simple and accurate. So the model is expected to be used in such fields as layout-driven logic and high level synthesis, performance-driven floorplanning and interconnect planning.
文摘Estimation of state-of-charge and state-of-health for batteries is one of the most important feature for modern battery management system(BMS).Robust or adaptive methods are the most investigated because a more intelligent BMS could lead to sensible cost reduction of the entire battery system.We propose a new robust method,called ERMES(extendible range multi-model estimator),for determining an estimated state-of-charge(SoC),an estimated state-of-health(SoH)and a prediction of uncertainty of the estimates(state-of-uncertainty—SoU),thanks to which it is possible to monitor the validity of the estimates and adjust it,extending the robustness against a wider range of uncertainty,if necessary.Specifically,a finite number of models in state-space form are considered starting from a modified Thevenin battery model.Each model is characterized by a hypothesis of SoH value.An iterated extended Kalman filter(EKF)is then applied to each model in parallel,estimating for each one the SoC state variable.Residual errors are then considered to fuse both the estimated SoC and SoH from the bank of EKF,yielding the overall SoC and SoH estimates,respectively.In addition,a figure of uncertainty of such estimates is also provided.
文摘A Recent paper by Ma et al.,claims to estimate the state of charge of Lithium-ion batteries with a fractionalorder impedance model including a Warburg and a constant phase element(CPE)with a maximum error of 0.5%[1].The proposed equivalent circuit model from[1]is reproduced in Fig.1.
文摘A new relative efficiency of parameter estimation for generalized Gauss-Markov linear model was proposed. Its lower bound was also derived. Its properties were explored in comparison with three currently very popular relative efficiencies. The new relative efficiency not only reflects sensitively the error and loss caused by the substitution of the least square estimator for the best linear unbiased estimator, but also overcomes the disadvantage of weak dependence on the design matrix.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61070009)the National Science and Technology Support Plan (2012BAH25F02)+2 种基金the Project of Jingdezhen Science and Technology Bureau (2011-1-47)the National Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (2009GZS0065)the Youth Science Foundation of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Education (GJJ12514)
文摘Parameter estimation plays a critical role for the application and development of S-shaped growth model in the agricultural sciences and others.In this paper,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm based on the diffusion phenomenon（DPPSO） was employed to estimate the parameters for this model.Under the sense of least squares,the parameter estimation problem of S-shaped growth model,taking the Gompertz and Logistic models for example,is transformed into a multi-dimensional function optimization problem.The results show that the DPPSO algorithm can effectively estimate the parameters of the S-shaped growth model.
基金The part of the project "Development of Korea Operational Oceanographic System(KOOS),Phase 2",funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries,Koreathe part of the project entitled "Cooperative Project on Korea-China Bilateral Committee on Ocean Science",funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries,Korea and China-Korea Joint Research Ocean Research Center
文摘Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of influence is very useful and important for the effective establishment of a reduction plan. In general, the information is supported by a red-tide（a.k.a algal bloom） model. The performance of the model is highly dependent on the accuracy of parameters, which are the coefficients of functions approximating the biological growth and loss patterns of the C. polykrikoides. These parameters have been estimated using the bioassay data composed of growth-limiting factor and net growth rate value pairs. In the case of the C. polykrikoides, the parameters are different from each other in accordance with the used data because the bioassay data are sufficient compared to the other algal species. The parameters estimated by one specific dataset can be viewed as locally-optimized because they are adjusted only by that dataset. In cases where the other one data set is used, the estimation error might be considerable. In this study, the parameters are estimated by all available data sets without the use of only one specific data set and thus can be considered globally optimized. The cost function for the optimization is defined as the integrated mean squared estimation error, i.e., the difference between the values of the experimental and estimated rates. Based on quantitative error analysis, the root-mean squared errors of the global parameters show smaller values, approximately 25%–50%, than the values of the local parameters. In addition, bias is removed completely in the case of the globally estimated parameters. The parameter sets can be used as the reference default values of a red-tide model because they are optimal and representative. However, additional tuning of the parameters using the in-situ monitoring data is highly required.As opposed to the bioassay data, it is necessary because the bioassay data have limitations in terms of the in-situ coastal conditions.
文摘This study demonstrates the complexity and importance of water quality as a measure of the health and sustainability of ecosystems that directly influence biodiversity,human health,and the world economy.The predictability of water quality thus plays a crucial role in managing our ecosystems to make informed decisions and,hence,proper environmental management.This study addresses these challenges by proposing an effective machine learning methodology applied to the“Water Quality”public dataset.The methodology has modeled the dataset suitable for providing prediction classification analysis with high values of the evaluating parameters such as accuracy,sensitivity,and specificity.The proposed methodology is based on two novel approaches:(a)the SMOTE method to deal with unbalanced data and(b)the skillfully involved classical machine learning models.This paper uses Random Forests,Decision Trees,XGBoost,and Support Vector Machines because they can handle large datasets,train models for handling skewed datasets,and provide high accuracy in water quality classification.A key contribution of this work is the use of custom sampling strategies within the SMOTE approach,which significantly enhanced performance metrics and improved class imbalance handling.The results demonstrate significant improvements in predictive performance,achieving the highest reported metrics:accuracy(98.92%vs.96.06%),sensitivity(98.3%vs.71.26%),and F1 score(98.37%vs.79.74%)using the XGBoost model.These improvements underscore the effectiveness of our custom SMOTE sampling strategies in addressing class imbalance.The findings contribute to environmental management by enabling ecology specialists to develop more accurate strategies for monitoring,assessing,and managing drinking water quality,ensuring better ecosystem and public health outcomes.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41205126)the Discipline Construction and Macroscopic Agricultural Research Project of Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences(13A1424)+2 种基金the Fund for Youth Innovation of Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences(14B1460)the Innovative Research Team for Agricultural Disaster Risk Analysis in Anhui ProvinceAnhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences(14C1409)~~
文摘The establishment of crop yield estimating model based on microwave and optical satellite images can conduct the mutual verification of the accuracy of the reported crop yield and the precision of the estimating model. With Shou County and Huaiyuan County of Anhui Province as the experimental fields of winter wheat producing areas, the linear winter wheat yield estimating models were established by adopting backscattering coefficient and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index（NDVI） based on images from the synthetic aperture radar（SAR）—RDARSAT-2 and HJ satellite photographed in mid-April and early May, 2014, and then comparisons were conducted on the accuracy of the yield estimating models. The accuracies of the yield estimating models established using co-polarized（HH） and cross-polarized（HV） modes of SAR in Jiangou Town, Shou County were 68.37% and 74.01%, respectively, while the accuracies in Longkang Town, Huaiyuan County were 63.10%and 69.10%, respectively. Accuracies of yield estimating models established by HJ satellite data were 69.52% and 66.43% in Shou County and Huaiyuan County, respectively. Accuracies of winter yield estimating model based on HJ satellite data and that based on SAR were closed, and the yield difference of winter wheat in the lodging region was analyzed in detail. The model results laid the foundation and accumulated experience for the verification, parameters correction and promotion of the winter wheat yield estimating model.
