BACKGROUND The computed tomography(CT)-based preoperative risk score was developed to predict recurrence after upfront surgery in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma(PDAC)in South Korea.However,w...BACKGROUND The computed tomography(CT)-based preoperative risk score was developed to predict recurrence after upfront surgery in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma(PDAC)in South Korea.However,whether it performs well in other countries remains unknown.AIM To externally validate the CT-based preoperative risk score for PDAC in a country outside South Korea.METHODS Consecutive patients with PDAC who underwent upfront surgery from January 2016 to December 2019 at our institute in a country outside South Korea were retrospectively included.The study utilized the CT-based risk scoring system,which incorporates tumor size,portal venous phase density,tumor necrosis,peripancreatic infiltration,and suspicious metastatic lymph nodes.Patients were categorized into prognosis groups based on their risk score,as good(risk score<2),moderate(risk score 2-4),and poor(risk score≥5).RESULTS A total of 283 patients were evaluated,comprising 170 males and 113 females,with an average age of 63.52±8.71 years.Follow-up was conducted until May 2023,and 76%of patients experienced tumor recurrence with median recurrence-free survival(RFS)of 29.1±1.9 months.According to the evaluation results of Reader 1,the recurrence rates were 39.0%in the good prognosis group,82.1%in the moderate group,and 84.5%in the poor group.In comparison,Reader 2 reported recurrence rates of 50.0%,79.5%,and 88.9%,respectively,across the same prognostic categories.The study validated the effectiveness of the risk scoring system,demonstrating better RFS in the good prognosis group.CONCLUSION This research validated that the CT-based preoperative risk scoring system can effectively predict RFS in patients with PDAC,suggesting that it may be valuable in diverse populations.展开更多
Various velocity models have been built for Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau with the purpose of revealing the internal dynamics and estimating local seismic hazards.In this study,we use a 3-D full-waveform modeling p...Various velocity models have been built for Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau with the purpose of revealing the internal dynamics and estimating local seismic hazards.In this study,we use a 3-D full-waveform modeling package to systematically validate three published continental-scale velocity models,that is,Shen2016,FWEA18,and USTClitho1.0,leveraging the ample datasets in Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau region.Travel time residuals and waveform similarities are measured between observed empirical Green’s functions and synthetic waveforms.The results show that the Shen2016 model,derived from traditional surface wave tomography,performs best in fitting Rayleigh waves in the Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,followed by FWEA18,built from full-waveform inversion of long-period body and surface waves.The USTClitho1.0 model,although inverted from body wave datasets,is comparable with FWEA18 in fitting Rayleigh waves.The results also show that all the models are faster than the ground-truth model and show relatively large travel-time residuals and poor waveform similarities at shorter period bands,possibly caused by small-scale structural heterogeneities in the shallower crust.We further invert the time residuals for spatial velocity residuals and reveal that all three models underestimate the amplitudes of high-and low-velocity anomalies.The underestimated amplitude is up to 4%,which is non-negligible considering that the overall amplitude of anomalies is only 5%−10%in the crust.These results suggest that datasets and the inversion method are both essential to building accurate models and further refinements of these models are necessary.展开更多
The Boltzmann-Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook（BGK）model is investigated for its validity regarding the collision term approximation through relaxation evaluation. The evaluation is based on theoretical analysis and numerical ...The Boltzmann-Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook（BGK）model is investigated for its validity regarding the collision term approximation through relaxation evaluation. The evaluation is based on theoretical analysis and numerical comparison between the BGK and direct simulation Monte Carlo（DSMC） results for three specifically designed relaxation problems. In these problems, one or half component of the velocity distribution is characterized by another Maxwellian distribution with a different temperature. It is analyzed that the relaxation time in the BGK model is unequal to the molecular mean collision time. Relaxation of component distribution fails to involve enough contribution from other component distributions, which makes the BGK model unable to capture details of velocity distribution, especially when discontinuity exists in distribution. The BGK model,however, predicts satisfactory results including fluxes during relaxation when the temperature difference is small. Particularly, the model-induced error in the BGK model increases with the temperature difference, thus the model is more reliable for low-speed rarefied flows than for hypersonic flows.展开更多
The recoverable strain of rock is completely classified as elastic strain in the conventional elastic-plastic theory,which often results in poor agreement between theoretical and experimental curves.This work proposes...The recoverable strain of rock is completely classified as elastic strain in the conventional elastic-plastic theory,which often results in poor agreement between theoretical and experimental curves.This work proposes an improved elastoplastic model of rock materials considering the evolutions of crack deformation and elastic modulus to better characterize the nonlinear mechanical behavior of rock in the post-peak stage.In this model,the recoverable strain is assumed to be a combination of elastic and crack strain,and the constitutive relationship between crack strain and rock stress is deduced.Based on the proposed assumption,the evolutions of the mechanical parameters including strength parameters,elastic,plastic,and crack deformation parameters versus the plastic strain and confining stress were investigated.The developed elastoplastic model was validated by comparing the theoretical values with the results of the triaxial cyclic loading and unloading test.The theoretical calculation results show a good agreement with the laboratory test,which indicates that the improved elastoplastic model can effectively reflect the nonlinear mechanical behavior of the rock materials.The research results are expected to provide a valuable reference for further understanding the evolution of rock crack deformation.展开更多
The ball and plate system is an inherently nonlinear under actuated benchmark system used for validating the performance of various control schemes. A mathematical model depicting the dynamics close to that of the sys...The ball and plate system is an inherently nonlinear under actuated benchmark system used for validating the performance of various control schemes. A mathematical model depicting the dynamics close to that of the system is very much required for such a test bed. In this correspondence, the complete nonlinear model, a simplified nonlinear model, and a linearized model of the ball and plate system are developed. The system comprises a ball and plate mechanism and a rotary servo unit. The ball and plate mechanism is modelled using the Euler–Lagrange method, whereas the rotary servo subsystem is modelled from the first principles. The nonlinear model of the combined system is developed by including the dynamics of the servo motor with gear and rolling resistance between the ball and the plate. The simplified nonlinear model of the system is obtained with suitable assumptions. The model is linearized around the operating point using the Jacobian. The validity of the developed models is investigated through correlation function analysis. The open-loop response of the three models, viz., nonlinear, simplified nonlinear, and linearized models, is analyzed in the MATLAB/Simulink platform. Since the open-loop system is unstable, the experimental validation of the model is performed with a double-loop PSO (particle swarm optimization) PID control scheme.展开更多
Based on the finite element （FE） program ANSYS, a three-dimensional model for the Runyang Suspension Bridge （RSB） is established. The structural natural frequency, vibration mode, stress and displacement response ...Based on the finite element （FE） program ANSYS, a three-dimensional model for the Runyang Suspension Bridge （RSB） is established. The structural natural frequency, vibration mode, stress and displacement response under various load cases are given. A new method of FE model updating is presented based on the physical meaning of sensitivity and the penalty function concept. In this method, the structural model is updated by modifying the parameters of design, and validated by structural natural vibration characteristics, stress response as well as displacement response. The design parameters used for updating are bounded according to measured static response and engineering judgment. The FE model of RSB is updated and validated by the measurements coming from the structural health monitoring system （SHMS）, and the FE baseline model reflecting the current state of RSB is achieved. Both the dynamic and static results show that the method is effective in updating the FE model of long span suspension bridges. The results obtained provide an important research basis for damage alarming and health monitoring of the RSB.展开更多
Inf<span style="font-family:Verdana;">lation has </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">substantial impact on ...Inf<span style="font-family:Verdana;">lation has </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">substantial impact on an economy because it affects the financial value of money and stability in the economy. Government </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">and non-govern</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">- </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ment policies might be hindered due to the excessive rate of inflation. This paper aims to model and forecast inflation by the Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) technique using annual time series data on inflation from 1987 to 2017 in Bangladesh. It is found that ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model is the best optimal to forecast inflation for a period of up to eight years. Graphical tools</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> as well as theoretical tests such as Ljung-Box, Shapiro-Wilk, and runs tests have been used in the model diagnostics.</span>展开更多
Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model （GCM）, which shares the same physical and dynamical processes b...Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model （GCM）, which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step, is usually developed. In this study, we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM （AGCM）, the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG （Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics）, at low resolution （GAMIL-L, hereafter）, and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance. GAMIL-L, which is derived from the original GAMIL, is a finite difference AGCM with 72 × 40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels. To validate the simulated climatology and variability, two runs were achieved. One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature （SST） forcing, and the other was a 50-yr （1950-2000） integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing. Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis, including intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented. In addition, the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated.The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere, especially in the tropics and mid latitudes, although a few deficiencies exist, such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon. However, the simulated mean states over high latitudes, especially over the polar regions, are not acceptable. Apart from dynamics, the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes. Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL, in which the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model （CAM2） physical package was used, there are only small differences between them in the precipitation and temperature fields. Because our goal is to develop a fast-running AGCM and employ it in the coupled climate system model of IAP/LASG for paleoclimate studies such as ENSO and Australia-Asia monsoon, particular attention has been paid to the model performances in the tropics. More model validations, such as those ran for the Southern Oscillation and South Asia monsoon, indicate that GAMIL-L is reasonably competent and valuable in this regard.展开更多
Signed direct graph (SDG) theory provides algorithms and methods that can be applied directly to chemical process modeling and analysis to validate simulation models, and is a basis for the development of a software e...Signed direct graph (SDG) theory provides algorithms and methods that can be applied directly to chemical process modeling and analysis to validate simulation models, and is a basis for the development of a software environment that can automate the validation activity. This paper is concentrated on the pretreatment of the model validation. We use the validation scenarios and standard sequences generated by well-established SDG model to validate the trends fitted from the simulation model. The results are helpful to find potential problems, assess possible bugs in the simulation model and solve the problem effectively. A case study on a simulation model of boiler is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method.展开更多
For the purpose of establishing and validating aerodynamic performance predictions at transonic Mach numbers, a wind tunnel test was conducted in the High-Speed Tunnel（HST） of the German-Dutch Wind Tunnels. The test...For the purpose of establishing and validating aerodynamic performance predictions at transonic Mach numbers, a wind tunnel test was conducted in the High-Speed Tunnel（HST） of the German-Dutch Wind Tunnels. The test article is the aerodynamic validation model from the Chinese Aeronautical Establishment, which is a full-span scale model representation of a business jet aircraft. The wind tunnel test comprised of parallel deployments of balance, pressures, infrared thermography, and model marker measurement techniques. Dedicated investigations with a dummy support were conducted as well, in order to derive and correct for the interference that the support system imposed on the overall model loads. This enabled the establishment of a comprehensive dataset in which the steady overall model loads, the wing load distribution, the state of the wing boundary layer, and the aeroelastic wing shape were quantified for conditions up to and beyond the cruise Mach number of 0.85.展开更多
The Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE) is used to simulate the Arctic sea ice variability from 1948 to 2009. Two versions of CICE are validated through comparison with Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperat...The Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE) is used to simulate the Arctic sea ice variability from 1948 to 2009. Two versions of CICE are validated through comparison with Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature(Had ISST) observations. Version 5.0 of CICE with elastic-viscous-plastic(EVP) dynamics simulates a September Arctic sea ice concentration(SASIC) trend of –0.619 × 1012 m2 per decade from 1969 to 2009, which is very close to the observed trend(-0.585 × 1012 m2 per decade). Version 4.0 of CICE with EVP dynamics underestimates the SASIC trend(-0.470 × 1012 m2 per decade). Version 5.0 has a higher correlation(0.742) with observation than version 4.0(0.653). Both versions of CICE simulate the seasonal cycle of the Arctic sea ice, but version 5.0 outperforms version 4.0 in both phase and amplitude. The timing of the minimum and maximum sea ice coverage occurs a little earlier(phase advancing) in both versions. Simulations also show that the September Arctic sea ice volume(SASIV) has a faster decreasing trend than SASIC.展开更多
In almost all frozen soil models used currently, three variables of temperature, ice content and moisture content are used as prognostic variables and the rate term, accounting for the contribution of the phase change...In almost all frozen soil models used currently, three variables of temperature, ice content and moisture content are used as prognostic variables and the rate term, accounting for the contribution of the phase change between water and ice, is shown explicitly in both the energy and mass balance equations. The models must be solved by a numerical method with an iterative process, and the rate term of the phase change needs to be pre-estimated at the beginning in each iteration step. Since the rate term of the phase change in the energy equation is closely related to the release or absorption of the great amount of fusion heat, a small error in the rate term estimation will introduce greater error in the energy balance, which will amplify the error in the temperature calculation and in turn, cause problems for the numerical solution convergence. In this work, in order to first reduce the trouble, the methodology of the variable transformation is applied to a simplified frozen soil model used currently, which leads to new frozen soil scheme used in this work. In the new scheme, the enthalpy and the total water equivalent are used as predictive variables in the governing equations to replace temperature, volumetric soil moisture and ice content used in many current models. By doing so, the rate terms of the phase change are not shown explicitly in both the mass and energy equations and its pre-estimation is avoided. Secondly, in order to solve this new scheme more functionally, the development of the numerical scheme to the new scheme is described and a numerical algorithm appropriate to the numerical scheme is developed. In order to evaluate the new scheme of the frozen soil model and its relevant algorithm, a series of model evaluations are conducted by comparing numerical results from the new model scheme with three observational data sets. The comparisons show that the results from the model are in good agreement with these data sets in both the change trend of variables and their magnitude values, and the new scheme, together with the algorithm, is more efficient and saves more computer time.展开更多
A simulation model developed by the authors (Huang et al., 1999) was validated against independent field measurements of methane emission from rice paddy soils in Texas of USA, Tuzu Of China and Vercelli of Italy.A si...A simulation model developed by the authors (Huang et al., 1999) was validated against independent field measurements of methane emission from rice paddy soils in Texas of USA, Tuzu Of China and Vercelli of Italy.A simplified version of the simulation model was further validated against methane emission measurements from various regions of the world, including italy, China, Indonesia, Philippines and the United States. Model validation suggested that the seasonal variation of methane emission was mainly regulated by rice growth and development and that methane emission could be predicted from rice net productivity, cultivar character, soil texture and temperature, and organic matter amendments. Model simulations in general agreed with the observations. The comparison between computed and measured methane emission resulted in correlation coefficients r2 values from 0.450 to 0.952, significant at 0.01-0.001 probability level.On the basis of available information on rice cultivated area, growth duration, grain yield, soil texture and temperature, methane emission from rice paddy soils of China's Mainland was estimated for 28 rice cultivated provinces/municipal cities by employing the validated model. The calculated daily methane emission rates, on a provincial scale, ranged from 0.12 to 0.71 g m-2 with an average of 0.26 g m-2. A total amount of 7.92 Tg CH4 per year, ranging from 5.89 to 11.17 Tg year-1, was estimated to be released from Chinese rice paddy soils. Of the total, 45% was emitted from the single-rice growing season, and 19% and 36% were from the early-rice and the late-rice growing seasons, respectively. Approximately 70% of the total was emitted in the region located at latitude between 25°and 32°N. The emissions from rice fields in Sichuan and Hunan provinces were calculated to be 2.34 Tg year-1, accounting for approximately 30% of the total.展开更多
Efficient experiment design is of great significance for the validation of simulation model with high nonlinearity and large input space.Excessive validation experiment raises the cost while insufficient test increase...Efficient experiment design is of great significance for the validation of simulation model with high nonlinearity and large input space.Excessive validation experiment raises the cost while insufficient test increases the risks of accepting an invalid model.In this paper,an adaptive sequential experiment design method combining global exploration criterion and local exploitation criterion is proposed.The exploration criterion utilizes discrepancy metric to improve the space-filling property of the design points while the exploitation criterion employs the leave one out error to discover informative points.To avoid the clustering of samples in the local region,an adaptive weight updating approach is provided to maintain the balance between exploration and exploitation.Besides,the credibility distribution function characterizing the relationship between the input and result credibility is introduced to support the model validation experiment design.Finally,six benchmark problems and an engineering case are applied to examine the performance of the proposed method.The experiments indicate that the proposed method achieves satisfactory performance for function approximation in accuracy and convergence.展开更多
Computer simulation models may by used to gain further information about missile performance variability. Model validation is an important aspect of the test program for a missile system. Validation provides a basis f...Computer simulation models may by used to gain further information about missile performance variability. Model validation is an important aspect of the test program for a missile system. Validation provides a basis for confidence in the model's results and is a necessary step if the model is to be used to draw inference about the behavior of the real missile. This paper is a review of methods useful for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems and provides a new method with high degree of confidence for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems. Some examples of the use of the new method in validating computer simulation models are given.展开更多
Nematodes are indicators of soil quality and soil health.Knowledge of the relationships between nematode-based soil quality indices and environmental properties is beneficial for assessing environmental threats on soi...Nematodes are indicators of soil quality and soil health.Knowledge of the relationships between nematode-based soil quality indices and environmental properties is beneficial for assessing environmental threats on soil biota.This study evaluated the spatial distribution of nematode-based soil quality indices in a 23-ha heavy metal-polluted nature reserve using geostatistical methods.We expected that a selection of abiotic soil properties(pH and moisture,clay,organic matter,cadmium(Cd),and zinc(Zn)contents)could explain a significant portion of the spatial variation of the indices and that regression kriging could more accurately model their spatial distribution than ordinary kriging.A stratified simple random sampling scheme was used to select 80 locations where soil samples were taken to extract nematodes and derive the indices.The area had a distinct gradient in soil properties with Cd and Zn content ranging from 0.07 to 68.9 and 5.3 to 1329 mg kg^(-1),respectively.Linear regression models were fitted to describe the relationships between the indices and soil properties.By also modelling the spatial correlation structure of regression residuals using spherical semivariograms,regression kriging was used to produce maps of the indices.The regression models explained between 21% and 44% of the total original variance in the indices.Soil pH was a significant explanatory variable in almost all cases,while heavy metal conent had a remarkably low effect.In some cases,the regression residuals had spatial structure.Independent validation indicated that in all cases,regression kriging performed slightly better because of having lower values of the root mean square prediction error and a mean prediction error closer to zero than ordinary kriging.This study showed the importance of soil properties in explaining the spatial distribution of biological soil quality indices in ecological risk assessment.展开更多
The streamflow over the Yellow River basin is simulated using the PRECIS （Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies） regional climate model driven by 15-year （1979-1993） ECMWF reanalysis data as the initial ...The streamflow over the Yellow River basin is simulated using the PRECIS （Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies） regional climate model driven by 15-year （1979-1993） ECMWF reanalysis data as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and an off-line large-scale routing model （LRM）. The LRM uses physical catchment and river channel information and allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers with a 1°×1° spatial resolution. The results show that the PRECIS model can reproduce the general southeast to northwest gradient distribution of the precipitation over the Yellow River basin, The PRECIS- LRM model combination has the capability to simulate the seasonal and annual streamflow over the Yellow River basin. The simulated streamflow is generally coincident with the naturalized streamflow both in timing and in magnitude.展开更多
Evolution of the Arctic sea ice and its snow cover during the SHEBA year were simulated by applying a high-resolution thermodynamic snow/ice model （HIGHTSI）. Attention was paid to the impact of albedo on snow and se...Evolution of the Arctic sea ice and its snow cover during the SHEBA year were simulated by applying a high-resolution thermodynamic snow/ice model （HIGHTSI）. Attention was paid to the impact of albedo on snow and sea ice mass balance, effect of snow on total ice mass balance, and the model vertical resolution. The SHEBA annual simulation was made applying the best possible external forcing data set created by the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project. The HIGHTSI control run reasonably reproduced the observed snow and ice thickness. A number of albedo schemes were incorporated into HIGHTSI to study the feedback processes between the albedo and snow and ice thickness. The snow thickness turned out to be an essential variable in the albedo parameterization. Albedo schemes dependent on the surface temperature were liable to excessive positive feedback effects generated by errors in the modelled surface temperature. The superimposed ice formation should be taken into account for the annual Arctic sea ice mass balance.展开更多
This study evaluated the total height of trees based on diameter at breast height by using 23 widely used height-diameter non-linear regression models for mixed-species forest stands consisting of Caucasian oak,field ...This study evaluated the total height of trees based on diameter at breast height by using 23 widely used height-diameter non-linear regression models for mixed-species forest stands consisting of Caucasian oak,field maple,and hornbeam from forests in Northwest Iran.1920 trees were measured in 6 sampling plots(every sampling plot has 1 ha area).The fit of the best height–diameter models for each species were compared based on R2,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Akaike information criterion(AIC),standard error,and relative ranking performance criteria.In the final step,verification of results was performed by paired sample t-test to compare the observed height and estimated height.Results showed that among 23 height-diameter models,the best models were obtained from the top five ones including Modified-logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential.Comparison between the actual observed height and estimated height for Caucasian oak showed that Modified–Logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential performed better than the others,respectively(There were no statistically significant differences between observed heights and predicted height(p≥0.05)).Prodan,Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch evaluated field maple tree height correctly,and Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch had better fitness compared to the others for hornbeam,respectively.Although other models were introduced as appropriate criteria,they could not reliably predict the height of trees.Using the Rank analysis,the Modified-Logistic model for the Caucasian oak and Prodan model for field maple and hornbeam had the best performance.Finally,to complement the results of this study,it is suggested to assess how environmental factors such as elevation,climate parameters,forest protection policy and forest structure will modify height-diameter allometry models and will enhance the prediction accuracy of tree heights prediction in mixed stands.展开更多
An enhancement in the wheel-rail contact model used in a nonlinear vehicle-structure interaction(VSI)methodology for railway applications is presented,in which the detection of the contact points between wheel and rai...An enhancement in the wheel-rail contact model used in a nonlinear vehicle-structure interaction(VSI)methodology for railway applications is presented,in which the detection of the contact points between wheel and rail in the concave region of the thread-flange transition is implemented in a simplified way.After presenting the enhanced formulation,the model is validated with two numerical applications(namely,the Manchester Benchmarks and a hunting stability problem of a sus-pended wheelset),and one experimental test performed in a test rig from the Railway Technical Research Institute(RTRI)in Japan.Given its finite element(FE)nature,and contrary to most of the vehicle multibody dynamic commercial software that cannot account for the infrastructure flexibility,the proposed VSI model can be easily used in the study of train-bridge systems with any degree of complexity.The validation presented in this work proves the accuracy of the proposed model,making it a suitable tool for dealing with different railway dynamic applications,such as the study of bridge dynamics,train running safety under different scenarios(namely,earthquakes and crosswinds,among others),and passenger riding comfort.展开更多
文摘BACKGROUND The computed tomography(CT)-based preoperative risk score was developed to predict recurrence after upfront surgery in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma(PDAC)in South Korea.However,whether it performs well in other countries remains unknown.AIM To externally validate the CT-based preoperative risk score for PDAC in a country outside South Korea.METHODS Consecutive patients with PDAC who underwent upfront surgery from January 2016 to December 2019 at our institute in a country outside South Korea were retrospectively included.The study utilized the CT-based risk scoring system,which incorporates tumor size,portal venous phase density,tumor necrosis,peripancreatic infiltration,and suspicious metastatic lymph nodes.Patients were categorized into prognosis groups based on their risk score,as good(risk score<2),moderate(risk score 2-4),and poor(risk score≥5).RESULTS A total of 283 patients were evaluated,comprising 170 males and 113 females,with an average age of 63.52±8.71 years.Follow-up was conducted until May 2023,and 76%of patients experienced tumor recurrence with median recurrence-free survival(RFS)of 29.1±1.9 months.According to the evaluation results of Reader 1,the recurrence rates were 39.0%in the good prognosis group,82.1%in the moderate group,and 84.5%in the poor group.In comparison,Reader 2 reported recurrence rates of 50.0%,79.5%,and 88.9%,respectively,across the same prognostic categories.The study validated the effectiveness of the risk scoring system,demonstrating better RFS in the good prognosis group.CONCLUSION This research validated that the CT-based preoperative risk scoring system can effectively predict RFS in patients with PDAC,suggesting that it may be valuable in diverse populations.
基金supported by the Special Fund of the Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration(Nos.DQJB23R28 and DQJB22K40)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42304078,U1839210 and 42104043).
文摘Various velocity models have been built for Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau with the purpose of revealing the internal dynamics and estimating local seismic hazards.In this study,we use a 3-D full-waveform modeling package to systematically validate three published continental-scale velocity models,that is,Shen2016,FWEA18,and USTClitho1.0,leveraging the ample datasets in Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau region.Travel time residuals and waveform similarities are measured between observed empirical Green’s functions and synthetic waveforms.The results show that the Shen2016 model,derived from traditional surface wave tomography,performs best in fitting Rayleigh waves in the Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,followed by FWEA18,built from full-waveform inversion of long-period body and surface waves.The USTClitho1.0 model,although inverted from body wave datasets,is comparable with FWEA18 in fitting Rayleigh waves.The results also show that all the models are faster than the ground-truth model and show relatively large travel-time residuals and poor waveform similarities at shorter period bands,possibly caused by small-scale structural heterogeneities in the shallower crust.We further invert the time residuals for spatial velocity residuals and reveal that all three models underestimate the amplitudes of high-and low-velocity anomalies.The underestimated amplitude is up to 4%,which is non-negligible considering that the overall amplitude of anomalies is only 5%−10%in the crust.These results suggest that datasets and the inversion method are both essential to building accurate models and further refinements of these models are necessary.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(91116013,11372325,and 11111120080)
文摘The Boltzmann-Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook（BGK）model is investigated for its validity regarding the collision term approximation through relaxation evaluation. The evaluation is based on theoretical analysis and numerical comparison between the BGK and direct simulation Monte Carlo（DSMC） results for three specifically designed relaxation problems. In these problems, one or half component of the velocity distribution is characterized by another Maxwellian distribution with a different temperature. It is analyzed that the relaxation time in the BGK model is unequal to the molecular mean collision time. Relaxation of component distribution fails to involve enough contribution from other component distributions, which makes the BGK model unable to capture details of velocity distribution, especially when discontinuity exists in distribution. The BGK model,however, predicts satisfactory results including fluxes during relaxation when the temperature difference is small. Particularly, the model-induced error in the BGK model increases with the temperature difference, thus the model is more reliable for low-speed rarefied flows than for hypersonic flows.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52074269)the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province,and the Graduate Innovation Program of China University of Mining and Technology(Grant No.2024WLKXJ202).
文摘The recoverable strain of rock is completely classified as elastic strain in the conventional elastic-plastic theory,which often results in poor agreement between theoretical and experimental curves.This work proposes an improved elastoplastic model of rock materials considering the evolutions of crack deformation and elastic modulus to better characterize the nonlinear mechanical behavior of rock in the post-peak stage.In this model,the recoverable strain is assumed to be a combination of elastic and crack strain,and the constitutive relationship between crack strain and rock stress is deduced.Based on the proposed assumption,the evolutions of the mechanical parameters including strength parameters,elastic,plastic,and crack deformation parameters versus the plastic strain and confining stress were investigated.The developed elastoplastic model was validated by comparing the theoretical values with the results of the triaxial cyclic loading and unloading test.The theoretical calculation results show a good agreement with the laboratory test,which indicates that the improved elastoplastic model can effectively reflect the nonlinear mechanical behavior of the rock materials.The research results are expected to provide a valuable reference for further understanding the evolution of rock crack deformation.
文摘The ball and plate system is an inherently nonlinear under actuated benchmark system used for validating the performance of various control schemes. A mathematical model depicting the dynamics close to that of the system is very much required for such a test bed. In this correspondence, the complete nonlinear model, a simplified nonlinear model, and a linearized model of the ball and plate system are developed. The system comprises a ball and plate mechanism and a rotary servo unit. The ball and plate mechanism is modelled using the Euler–Lagrange method, whereas the rotary servo subsystem is modelled from the first principles. The nonlinear model of the combined system is developed by including the dynamics of the servo motor with gear and rolling resistance between the ball and the plate. The simplified nonlinear model of the system is obtained with suitable assumptions. The model is linearized around the operating point using the Jacobian. The validity of the developed models is investigated through correlation function analysis. The open-loop response of the three models, viz., nonlinear, simplified nonlinear, and linearized models, is analyzed in the MATLAB/Simulink platform. Since the open-loop system is unstable, the experimental validation of the model is performed with a double-loop PSO (particle swarm optimization) PID control scheme.
文摘Based on the finite element （FE） program ANSYS, a three-dimensional model for the Runyang Suspension Bridge （RSB） is established. The structural natural frequency, vibration mode, stress and displacement response under various load cases are given. A new method of FE model updating is presented based on the physical meaning of sensitivity and the penalty function concept. In this method, the structural model is updated by modifying the parameters of design, and validated by structural natural vibration characteristics, stress response as well as displacement response. The design parameters used for updating are bounded according to measured static response and engineering judgment. The FE model of RSB is updated and validated by the measurements coming from the structural health monitoring system （SHMS）, and the FE baseline model reflecting the current state of RSB is achieved. Both the dynamic and static results show that the method is effective in updating the FE model of long span suspension bridges. The results obtained provide an important research basis for damage alarming and health monitoring of the RSB.
文摘Inf<span style="font-family:Verdana;">lation has </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">substantial impact on an economy because it affects the financial value of money and stability in the economy. Government </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">and non-govern</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">- </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ment policies might be hindered due to the excessive rate of inflation. This paper aims to model and forecast inflation by the Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) technique using annual time series data on inflation from 1987 to 2017 in Bangladesh. It is found that ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model is the best optimal to forecast inflation for a period of up to eight years. Graphical tools</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> as well as theoretical tests such as Ljung-Box, Shapiro-Wilk, and runs tests have been used in the model diagnostics.</span>
文摘Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model （GCM）, which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step, is usually developed. In this study, we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM （AGCM）, the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG （Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics）, at low resolution （GAMIL-L, hereafter）, and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance. GAMIL-L, which is derived from the original GAMIL, is a finite difference AGCM with 72 × 40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels. To validate the simulated climatology and variability, two runs were achieved. One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature （SST） forcing, and the other was a 50-yr （1950-2000） integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing. Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis, including intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented. In addition, the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated.The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere, especially in the tropics and mid latitudes, although a few deficiencies exist, such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon. However, the simulated mean states over high latitudes, especially over the polar regions, are not acceptable. Apart from dynamics, the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes. Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL, in which the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model （CAM2） physical package was used, there are only small differences between them in the precipitation and temperature fields. Because our goal is to develop a fast-running AGCM and employ it in the coupled climate system model of IAP/LASG for paleoclimate studies such as ENSO and Australia-Asia monsoon, particular attention has been paid to the model performances in the tropics. More model validations, such as those ran for the Southern Oscillation and South Asia monsoon, indicate that GAMIL-L is reasonably competent and valuable in this regard.
文摘Signed direct graph (SDG) theory provides algorithms and methods that can be applied directly to chemical process modeling and analysis to validate simulation models, and is a basis for the development of a software environment that can automate the validation activity. This paper is concentrated on the pretreatment of the model validation. We use the validation scenarios and standard sequences generated by well-established SDG model to validate the trends fitted from the simulation model. The results are helpful to find potential problems, assess possible bugs in the simulation model and solve the problem effectively. A case study on a simulation model of boiler is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method.
文摘For the purpose of establishing and validating aerodynamic performance predictions at transonic Mach numbers, a wind tunnel test was conducted in the High-Speed Tunnel（HST） of the German-Dutch Wind Tunnels. The test article is the aerodynamic validation model from the Chinese Aeronautical Establishment, which is a full-span scale model representation of a business jet aircraft. The wind tunnel test comprised of parallel deployments of balance, pressures, infrared thermography, and model marker measurement techniques. Dedicated investigations with a dummy support were conducted as well, in order to derive and correct for the interference that the support system imposed on the overall model loads. This enabled the establishment of a comprehensive dataset in which the steady overall model loads, the wing load distribution, the state of the wing boundary layer, and the aeroelastic wing shape were quantified for conditions up to and beyond the cruise Mach number of 0.85.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2010CB951804)the China Meteorological Administration Special Fund for Scientific Research in the Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201206008)
文摘The Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE) is used to simulate the Arctic sea ice variability from 1948 to 2009. Two versions of CICE are validated through comparison with Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature(Had ISST) observations. Version 5.0 of CICE with elastic-viscous-plastic(EVP) dynamics simulates a September Arctic sea ice concentration(SASIC) trend of –0.619 × 1012 m2 per decade from 1969 to 2009, which is very close to the observed trend(-0.585 × 1012 m2 per decade). Version 4.0 of CICE with EVP dynamics underestimates the SASIC trend(-0.470 × 1012 m2 per decade). Version 5.0 has a higher correlation(0.742) with observation than version 4.0(0.653). Both versions of CICE simulate the seasonal cycle of the Arctic sea ice, but version 5.0 outperforms version 4.0 in both phase and amplitude. The timing of the minimum and maximum sea ice coverage occurs a little earlier(phase advancing) in both versions. Simulations also show that the September Arctic sea ice volume(SASIV) has a faster decreasing trend than SASIC.
基金the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China under Grant Nos. 40575043 and 40605024as well as 40730952the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No. 2009CB421405The Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sci-ences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-220)
文摘In almost all frozen soil models used currently, three variables of temperature, ice content and moisture content are used as prognostic variables and the rate term, accounting for the contribution of the phase change between water and ice, is shown explicitly in both the energy and mass balance equations. The models must be solved by a numerical method with an iterative process, and the rate term of the phase change needs to be pre-estimated at the beginning in each iteration step. Since the rate term of the phase change in the energy equation is closely related to the release or absorption of the great amount of fusion heat, a small error in the rate term estimation will introduce greater error in the energy balance, which will amplify the error in the temperature calculation and in turn, cause problems for the numerical solution convergence. In this work, in order to first reduce the trouble, the methodology of the variable transformation is applied to a simplified frozen soil model used currently, which leads to new frozen soil scheme used in this work. In the new scheme, the enthalpy and the total water equivalent are used as predictive variables in the governing equations to replace temperature, volumetric soil moisture and ice content used in many current models. By doing so, the rate terms of the phase change are not shown explicitly in both the mass and energy equations and its pre-estimation is avoided. Secondly, in order to solve this new scheme more functionally, the development of the numerical scheme to the new scheme is described and a numerical algorithm appropriate to the numerical scheme is developed. In order to evaluate the new scheme of the frozen soil model and its relevant algorithm, a series of model evaluations are conducted by comparing numerical results from the new model scheme with three observational data sets. The comparisons show that the results from the model are in good agreement with these data sets in both the change trend of variables and their magnitude values, and the new scheme, together with the algorithm, is more efficient and saves more computer time.
文摘A simulation model developed by the authors (Huang et al., 1999) was validated against independent field measurements of methane emission from rice paddy soils in Texas of USA, Tuzu Of China and Vercelli of Italy.A simplified version of the simulation model was further validated against methane emission measurements from various regions of the world, including italy, China, Indonesia, Philippines and the United States. Model validation suggested that the seasonal variation of methane emission was mainly regulated by rice growth and development and that methane emission could be predicted from rice net productivity, cultivar character, soil texture and temperature, and organic matter amendments. Model simulations in general agreed with the observations. The comparison between computed and measured methane emission resulted in correlation coefficients r2 values from 0.450 to 0.952, significant at 0.01-0.001 probability level.On the basis of available information on rice cultivated area, growth duration, grain yield, soil texture and temperature, methane emission from rice paddy soils of China's Mainland was estimated for 28 rice cultivated provinces/municipal cities by employing the validated model. The calculated daily methane emission rates, on a provincial scale, ranged from 0.12 to 0.71 g m-2 with an average of 0.26 g m-2. A total amount of 7.92 Tg CH4 per year, ranging from 5.89 to 11.17 Tg year-1, was estimated to be released from Chinese rice paddy soils. Of the total, 45% was emitted from the single-rice growing season, and 19% and 36% were from the early-rice and the late-rice growing seasons, respectively. Approximately 70% of the total was emitted in the region located at latitude between 25°and 32°N. The emissions from rice fields in Sichuan and Hunan provinces were calculated to be 2.34 Tg year-1, accounting for approximately 30% of the total.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61627810)。
文摘Efficient experiment design is of great significance for the validation of simulation model with high nonlinearity and large input space.Excessive validation experiment raises the cost while insufficient test increases the risks of accepting an invalid model.In this paper,an adaptive sequential experiment design method combining global exploration criterion and local exploitation criterion is proposed.The exploration criterion utilizes discrepancy metric to improve the space-filling property of the design points while the exploitation criterion employs the leave one out error to discover informative points.To avoid the clustering of samples in the local region,an adaptive weight updating approach is provided to maintain the balance between exploration and exploitation.Besides,the credibility distribution function characterizing the relationship between the input and result credibility is introduced to support the model validation experiment design.Finally,six benchmark problems and an engineering case are applied to examine the performance of the proposed method.The experiments indicate that the proposed method achieves satisfactory performance for function approximation in accuracy and convergence.
文摘Computer simulation models may by used to gain further information about missile performance variability. Model validation is an important aspect of the test program for a missile system. Validation provides a basis for confidence in the model's results and is a necessary step if the model is to be used to draw inference about the behavior of the real missile. This paper is a review of methods useful for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems and provides a new method with high degree of confidence for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems. Some examples of the use of the new method in validating computer simulation models are given.
文摘Nematodes are indicators of soil quality and soil health.Knowledge of the relationships between nematode-based soil quality indices and environmental properties is beneficial for assessing environmental threats on soil biota.This study evaluated the spatial distribution of nematode-based soil quality indices in a 23-ha heavy metal-polluted nature reserve using geostatistical methods.We expected that a selection of abiotic soil properties(pH and moisture,clay,organic matter,cadmium(Cd),and zinc(Zn)contents)could explain a significant portion of the spatial variation of the indices and that regression kriging could more accurately model their spatial distribution than ordinary kriging.A stratified simple random sampling scheme was used to select 80 locations where soil samples were taken to extract nematodes and derive the indices.The area had a distinct gradient in soil properties with Cd and Zn content ranging from 0.07 to 68.9 and 5.3 to 1329 mg kg^(-1),respectively.Linear regression models were fitted to describe the relationships between the indices and soil properties.By also modelling the spatial correlation structure of regression residuals using spherical semivariograms,regression kriging was used to produce maps of the indices.The regression models explained between 21% and 44% of the total original variance in the indices.Soil pH was a significant explanatory variable in almost all cases,while heavy metal conent had a remarkably low effect.In some cases,the regression residuals had spatial structure.Independent validation indicated that in all cases,regression kriging performed slightly better because of having lower values of the root mean square prediction error and a mean prediction error closer to zero than ordinary kriging.This study showed the importance of soil properties in explaining the spatial distribution of biological soil quality indices in ecological risk assessment.
文摘The streamflow over the Yellow River basin is simulated using the PRECIS （Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies） regional climate model driven by 15-year （1979-1993） ECMWF reanalysis data as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and an off-line large-scale routing model （LRM）. The LRM uses physical catchment and river channel information and allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers with a 1°×1° spatial resolution. The results show that the PRECIS model can reproduce the general southeast to northwest gradient distribution of the precipitation over the Yellow River basin, The PRECIS- LRM model combination has the capability to simulate the seasonal and annual streamflow over the Yellow River basin. The simulated streamflow is generally coincident with the naturalized streamflow both in timing and in magnitude.
基金supported by the EC-funded project DAMOCLES (grant 18509)which is part of the Sixth Framework Program of DFG(grant LU 818/1-1)Natural Science Foundation of China(grants No.40233032,40376006).
文摘Evolution of the Arctic sea ice and its snow cover during the SHEBA year were simulated by applying a high-resolution thermodynamic snow/ice model （HIGHTSI）. Attention was paid to the impact of albedo on snow and sea ice mass balance, effect of snow on total ice mass balance, and the model vertical resolution. The SHEBA annual simulation was made applying the best possible external forcing data set created by the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project. The HIGHTSI control run reasonably reproduced the observed snow and ice thickness. A number of albedo schemes were incorporated into HIGHTSI to study the feedback processes between the albedo and snow and ice thickness. The snow thickness turned out to be an essential variable in the albedo parameterization. Albedo schemes dependent on the surface temperature were liable to excessive positive feedback effects generated by errors in the modelled surface temperature. The superimposed ice formation should be taken into account for the annual Arctic sea ice mass balance.
文摘This study evaluated the total height of trees based on diameter at breast height by using 23 widely used height-diameter non-linear regression models for mixed-species forest stands consisting of Caucasian oak,field maple,and hornbeam from forests in Northwest Iran.1920 trees were measured in 6 sampling plots(every sampling plot has 1 ha area).The fit of the best height–diameter models for each species were compared based on R2,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Akaike information criterion(AIC),standard error,and relative ranking performance criteria.In the final step,verification of results was performed by paired sample t-test to compare the observed height and estimated height.Results showed that among 23 height-diameter models,the best models were obtained from the top five ones including Modified-logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential.Comparison between the actual observed height and estimated height for Caucasian oak showed that Modified–Logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential performed better than the others,respectively(There were no statistically significant differences between observed heights and predicted height(p≥0.05)).Prodan,Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch evaluated field maple tree height correctly,and Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch had better fitness compared to the others for hornbeam,respectively.Although other models were introduced as appropriate criteria,they could not reliably predict the height of trees.Using the Rank analysis,the Modified-Logistic model for the Caucasian oak and Prodan model for field maple and hornbeam had the best performance.Finally,to complement the results of this study,it is suggested to assess how environmental factors such as elevation,climate parameters,forest protection policy and forest structure will modify height-diameter allometry models and will enhance the prediction accuracy of tree heights prediction in mixed stands.
基金Base Funding-UIDB/04708/2020 and Programmatic Funding-UIDP/04708/2020 of the CONSTRUCT-Instituto de I&D em Estruturas e Construções-funded by national funds through the FCT/MCTES(PIDDAC)Grant no.2020.00305.CEECIND from the Stimulus of Scientific Employment,Individual Support(CEECIND)-3rd Edition provided by“FCT-Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia.”。
文摘An enhancement in the wheel-rail contact model used in a nonlinear vehicle-structure interaction(VSI)methodology for railway applications is presented,in which the detection of the contact points between wheel and rail in the concave region of the thread-flange transition is implemented in a simplified way.After presenting the enhanced formulation,the model is validated with two numerical applications(namely,the Manchester Benchmarks and a hunting stability problem of a sus-pended wheelset),and one experimental test performed in a test rig from the Railway Technical Research Institute(RTRI)in Japan.Given its finite element(FE)nature,and contrary to most of the vehicle multibody dynamic commercial software that cannot account for the infrastructure flexibility,the proposed VSI model can be easily used in the study of train-bridge systems with any degree of complexity.The validation presented in this work proves the accuracy of the proposed model,making it a suitable tool for dealing with different railway dynamic applications,such as the study of bridge dynamics,train running safety under different scenarios(namely,earthquakes and crosswinds,among others),and passenger riding comfort.
