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Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Drives Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Qinghai Lake Area 被引量:5
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作者 赤旦多杰 淡乐蓉 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2009年第6期150-154,共5页
Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establi... Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed, and the differences during all factors were compared. The study provides some decision basis for sustainable utilization and management of land resources in Qinghai Lake Area. 展开更多
关键词 Qinghai Lake Area Utilized change of cultivated land Driving force model Driving factors
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Nonlinear Mathematical Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of Hydraulic Drive Unit 被引量:13
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作者 KONG Xiangdong YU Bin +2 位作者 QUAN Lingxiao BA Kaixian WU Liujie 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第5期999-1011,共13页
The previous sensitivity analysis researches are not accurate enough and also have the limited reference value, because those mathematical models are relatively simple and the change of the load and the initial displa... The previous sensitivity analysis researches are not accurate enough and also have the limited reference value, because those mathematical models are relatively simple and the change of the load and the initial displacement changes of the piston are ignored, even experiment verification is not conducted. Therefore, in view of deficiencies above, a nonlinear mathematical model is established in this paper, including dynamic characteristics of servo valve, nonlinear characteristics of pressure-flow, initial displacement of servo cylinder piston and friction nonlinearity. The transfer function block diagram is built for the hydraulic drive unit closed loop position control, as well as the state equations. Through deriving the time-varying coefficient items matrix and time-varying free items matrix of sensitivity equations respectively, the expression of sensitivity equations based on the nonlinear mathematical model are obtained. According to structure parameters of hydraulic drive unit, working parameters, fluid transmission characteristics and measured friction-velocity curves, the simulation analysis of hydraulic drive unit is completed on the MATLAB/Simulink simulation platform with the displacement step 2 mm, 5 mm and 10 mm, respectively. The simulation results indicate that the developed nonlinear mathematical model is sufficient by comparing the characteristic curves of experimental step response and simulation step response under different constant load. Then, the sensitivity function time-history curves of seventeen parameters are obtained, basing on each state vector time-history curve of step response characteristic. The maximum value of displacement variation percentage and the sum of displacement variation absolute values in the sampling time are both taken as sensitivity indexes. The sensitivity indexes values above are calculated and shown visually in histograms under different working conditions, and change rules are analyzed. Then the sensitivity indexes values of four measurable parameters, such as supply pressure, proportional gain, initial position of servo cylinder piston and load force, are verified experimentally on test platform of hydraulic drive unit, and the experimental research shows that the sensitivity analysis results obtained through simulation are approximate to the test results. This research indicates each parameter sensitivity characteristics of hydraulic drive unit, the performance-affected main parameters and secondary parameters are got under different working conditions, which will provide the theoretical foundation for the control compensation and structure optimization of hydraulic drive unit. 展开更多
关键词 nonlinear mathematical model hydraulic drive unit valve-controlled symmetrical cylinder sensitivity analysis sensitivity index
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Controller design based on viscoelasticity dynamics model and experiment for flexible drive unit 被引量:1
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作者 吴伟国 侯月阳 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第12期4468-4477,共10页
In order to ensure that the system has the advantage of light weight and vibration absorption, the steel rope is used as a flexible transmission part. A flexible drive unit(FDU) is developed, whose features are guided... In order to ensure that the system has the advantage of light weight and vibration absorption, the steel rope is used as a flexible transmission part. A flexible drive unit(FDU) is developed, whose features are guided by steel rope, increasing force by the movable pulley group, modular, convenient and flexible. Dynamics model for controller is deduced based on the constitutive equation of viscoelasticity. Controller is designed for position control and is based on the viscoelasticity dynamics model compensation control strategy proposed. The control system is based on the TURBO PMAC multi-axis motion control card.Prototype loading experiments and velocity experiments results show that the FDU can reach 2 Hz with no load and the max speed of 30(°)/s. The FDU has the capability of the load torque 11.2 N·m and the speed of 24(°)/s simultaneously, and the frequency response is 1.3 Hz. The FDU can be used to be the pitch joint of hip for biped robot whose walking speed is 0.144 km/h theoretically. 展开更多
关键词 flexible drive unit steel rope drive viscoelasticity dynamic model speed-load characteristic
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Effective way of alleviating poverty against poverty control: Based on the model of "Three Drives, Four Joints" in Zhen'an County
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作者 HE De-gui ZHONG Xiao-rong 《Ecological Economy》 2017年第2期150-164,共15页
Based on the survey research of poverty controlling model of "Three Drives, Four Joints" in Zhen'an County, its forming motives, implementing mechanism, and constraint factors have been explored to testi... Based on the survey research of poverty controlling model of "Three Drives, Four Joints" in Zhen'an County, its forming motives, implementing mechanism, and constraint factors have been explored to testify its enlightenment and applicability, establishing a promotable, applicable, and effective poverty alleviation model. "Three Drives, Four Joints" model is linked to the poor who lacks ability of self-development. Relying on the drives from key leading companies, the capable and the rich, a community with shared interests by the poor and the subjects of the "three drives" could be formed through "Joint Production, Joint Resources, Joint Community of Stock, and Joint Operation". The linked poverty alleviation development model of "the influential and the rich bring along the poor" and "A rich household would help the others" come into being. It is found out that the model of "Three Drives, Four Joints" is in essence a poverty alleviation method focusing on the increase of the income and diversified ways of increasing the earnings. Problems of poverty alleviation carrier and joint mechanism have been solved in the poverty alleviation process. The model is innovative in activating the resource elements, helping to move the poor out of poverty. A referential, copyable, and applicable model is offered to advance the poverty alleviation in mountainous areas in China. 展开更多
关键词 poverty control poverty alleviation effective way model of "Three drives Four Joints"
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Modelling of a Human Driver’s Interaction with Vehicle Automated Steering Using Cooperative Game Theory 被引量:12
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作者 Xiaoxiang Na David J.Cole 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 EI CSCD 2019年第5期1095-1107,共13页
The introduction of automated driving systems raised questions about how the human driver interacts with the automated system. Non-cooperative game theory is increasingly used for modelling and understanding such inte... The introduction of automated driving systems raised questions about how the human driver interacts with the automated system. Non-cooperative game theory is increasingly used for modelling and understanding such interaction, while its counterpart, cooperative game theory is rarely discussed for similar applications despite it may be potentially more suitable. This paper describes the modelling of a human driver’s steering interaction with an automated steering system using cooperative game theory. The distributed Model Predictive Control approach is adopted to derive the driver’s and the automated steering system’s strategies in a Pareto equilibrium sense, namely their cooperative Pareto steering strategies. Two separate numerical studies are carried out to study the influence of strategy parameters, and the influence of strategy types on the driver’s and the automated system’s steering performance. It is found that when a driver interacts with an automated steering system using a cooperative Pareto steering strategy, the driver can improve his/her performance in following a target path through increasing his/her effort in pursuing his/her own interest under the driver-automation cooperative control goal. It is also found that a driver’s adoption of cooperative Pareto steering strategy leads to a reinforcement in the driver’s steering angle control, compared to the driver’s adoption of non-cooperative Nash strategy. This in turn enables the vehicle to return from a lane-change maneuver to straight-line driving swifter. 展开更多
关键词 AUTOMATED driving system cooperative GAME theory driveR modelLING
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Modeling and Analysis of Pumping Motor Drives in Hardware-in-the-Loop Environment
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作者 Valery Vodovozov Levon Gevorkov Zoja Raud 《Journal of Power and Energy Engineering》 2014年第10期19-27,共9页
In the proposed paper, the new experimental results are described obtained from the laboratory stand and the model developed by the authors. A method of acquiring characteristics of a pump motor drive using a hardware... In the proposed paper, the new experimental results are described obtained from the laboratory stand and the model developed by the authors. A method of acquiring characteristics of a pump motor drive using a hardware-in-the-loop simulation approach is explained. To explore the centrifugal pumps manufactured by ABB, their own control system is used whereas an industrial pump is replaced with the specially designed simulator. To clarify the model topology and parameters, a double-machine assembly was designed and used as universal pump prototype. A library of reference and disturbance signals used in pumping was applied as a modeling tool. In this way, the advantages of mathematical and physical simulations have been combined with optimal interaction of both approaches. 展开更多
关键词 CENTRIFUGAL PUMP ELECTRIC drive modeling HARDWARE-IN-THE-LOOP Simulation
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Study on Modeling and Control Strategy for Electric Drive Motor of Tracked Vehicles 被引量:1
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作者 廖自力 黄苏融 +1 位作者 马晓军 庞宾宾 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 CAS 2012年第2期65-69,共5页
Aimed at the requirements for electric transmission system of a military tracked vehicle, the motor's design indexes were analysed and calculated. A model based on saturate inductance parameter of interior permane... Aimed at the requirements for electric transmission system of a military tracked vehicle, the motor's design indexes were analysed and calculated. A model based on saturate inductance parameter of interior permanent magnet (IPM) synchronous motor was brought forward by using finite element analysis. And its control strategy based on the largest running capability was studied also. The experiment results for a scale model show that the modelling method improves the model's accuracy, and the motor's control strategy is effective. 展开更多
关键词 军用履带车辆 控制策略 驱动电机 建模方法 电传动系统 有限元分析 电感参数 同步电机
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Modeling of large scale solar cell handling robot with belt-driven flexible arms
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作者 Eun Yim Cho Jinsu Kim Sungsoo Rhim 《Theoretical & Applied Mechanics Letters》 CAS 2013年第1期77-80,共4页
To increase the competition of the solar energy collection system, the size of the solar panel module during the manufacturing process is being increased continuously. As the size of the solar panel increases, the siz... To increase the competition of the solar energy collection system, the size of the solar panel module during the manufacturing process is being increased continuously. As the size of the solar panel increases, the size of the robot to handle the panel increased also. The change in scale of the robot inevitably results ill the amplification of the adverse effect of tile flexure. The main source of the flexure in the large scale solar cell panel handling system is the long and thin fork fingers of the [land and the solar cell panel. In addition, tile belt-driven actuator system used by most of the large scale panel handling robot is another significant source of the vibration. In this paper, the flexible multi body dynamic model of a large scale solar cell panel handling robot, which is being designed and constructed with the help of Kyung Hee University, is developed. The belt-driven system in the robot is also modeled as flexible system and included ill the robot to represent the actual vibration characteristics of the actuator system. C 2013 The Chinese Society of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics. [doi: 10.1063/2.1301310] 展开更多
关键词 flexible belt drive flexible multi body dynalnics modeling panel handling robot
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Evaluation of Driver Distraction with Changes in Gaze Direction Based on a Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex Model
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作者 Le Anh Son Hirofumi Aoki Tatsuya Suzuki 《Journal of Transportation Technologies》 2017年第3期336-350,共15页
With the aim of improving parameter identification and, eventually, evaluating driver distraction with changes in gaze direction, we applied a genetic algorithm (GA) method to identify parameters for an existing vesti... With the aim of improving parameter identification and, eventually, evaluating driver distraction with changes in gaze direction, we applied a genetic algorithm (GA) method to identify parameters for an existing vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) model. By changing the initial inputs to the GA and fixing two parameters pertaining to the horizontal direction, we achieved improved parameter identification with a lower mean-square error. The influence of driver distraction on eye movement with changes in gaze direction was evaluated from the difference between the predicted and observed VOR in the vertical axis. When a driver was given an additional mental workload, the mean-square error between the measured and simulated values was bigger than that in the absence of the mental workload. This confirmed the relationship between driver distraction and eye movement in the vertical direction. We hope that this method can be applied in evaluating driver distraction. 展开更多
关键词 Vestibulo-Ocular REFLEX model (VOR) OPTOKINETIC REFLEX (VOR) Mental WORKLOAD drive DISTRACTION
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自动驾驶接管提醒情绪氛围对接管绩效的影响
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作者 郑新夷 王越 +1 位作者 苏应竑 吴月燕 《安全与环境学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期78-87,共10页
研究旨在探讨不同接管提醒氛围对自动驾驶接管绩效的影响,同时考虑接管提醒氛围和非驾驶任务之间的交互作用。首先,招募228名被试进行问卷调查,验证了不同接管提醒氛围(愉快提醒、警觉提醒、平静提醒)能唤起对应的情绪。其次,通过招募4... 研究旨在探讨不同接管提醒氛围对自动驾驶接管绩效的影响,同时考虑接管提醒氛围和非驾驶任务之间的交互作用。首先,招募228名被试进行问卷调查,验证了不同接管提醒氛围(愉快提醒、警觉提醒、平静提醒)能唤起对应的情绪。其次,通过招募48名被试参与的E-prime试验,验证了3种非驾驶任务(无任务、看视频、打游戏)对接管反应速度和认知负荷的影响。结果显示,打游戏时被试反应速度最慢、认知负荷最高,看视频时被试反应速度显著慢于无任务。最后,采用3(接管提醒氛围:愉快提醒、警觉提醒、平静提醒)×2(非驾驶任务:无任务、打游戏)的混合设计,招募36名被试在驾驶模拟舱中进行接管试验。结果发现,在平静提醒下,被试的接管绩效最佳且主观满意度最高;警觉提醒虽能提高反应速度,但也让被试反应更不平稳,接管绩效和主观满意度最低;非驾驶任务显著增加了被试的接管反应时,增大了方向盘转角。 展开更多
关键词 安全人体学 人机共驾 接管提醒 情绪环状模型 非驾驶任务
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边疆地区乡村全面振兴中的多维跨境影响因素——基于模糊集定性比较分析
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作者 曹亚斌 卢昌瑞 《云南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》 北大核心 2026年第1期32-41,共10页
随着边疆地区对外开放的不断深入,跨境因素已成为影响边疆地区乡村全面振兴的关键因素之一。通过构建“行动者-制度-资源”三维分析框架,采用fsQCA方法,本研究分析了跨境因素对边疆地区乡村振兴的差异化影响机制。分析结果显示,边疆地... 随着边疆地区对外开放的不断深入,跨境因素已成为影响边疆地区乡村全面振兴的关键因素之一。通过构建“行动者-制度-资源”三维分析框架,采用fsQCA方法,本研究分析了跨境因素对边疆地区乡村振兴的差异化影响机制。分析结果显示,边疆地区乡村振兴受到多维跨境因素的交互影响,并呈现出“行动者-制度驱动型”“制度-资源驱动型”和“综合驱动型”三种主要驱动模式。同时,不同边疆地区的乡村振兴路径也存在较大差异:东北边疆地区乡村振兴主要受到跨境文化交流和跨境公共事务治理等因素的组合性影响,西北边疆地区乡村振兴受到跨境政策和跨境基础设施等因素的组合性影响,而西南边疆地区乡村振兴则主要受到跨境贸易和社会融合度等因素的组合性影响。本研究为深入理解边疆地区高水平对外开放与乡村全面振兴之间的内在统一性提供了重要理论支撑,并为不同边疆地区差异化推进乡村全面振兴提供了参考依据。 展开更多
关键词 边疆治理 乡村全面振兴 高水平对外开放 跨境因素 差异化驱动模式
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老年人驾驶回避行为影响因素研究
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作者 郭凤香 黄桃红 +4 位作者 李娟 周怡雯 黄芳 李京阳 蔡晶 《安全与环境学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期113-122,共10页
为探究老年驾驶人驾驶回避行为的影响机制,揭示其与驾驶风险的关系,提升老龄社会交通安全管理水平,基于老年驾驶人问卷调查数据,集成异质性分析、线性回归及结构方程模型,构建老年驾驶回避行为影响因素分析模型,探究不同老年人驾驶回避... 为探究老年驾驶人驾驶回避行为的影响机制,揭示其与驾驶风险的关系,提升老龄社会交通安全管理水平,基于老年驾驶人问卷调查数据,集成异质性分析、线性回归及结构方程模型,构建老年驾驶回避行为影响因素分析模型,探究不同老年人驾驶回避行为的异质性及其驾驶回避行为的作用机制。结果表明:专科及以上学历的老年人驾驶回避水平高于其他学历群体;健康状况较好的老年驾驶人对自我驾驶能力自评较高且驾驶回避水平较低;老年驾驶人在夜间出行时更倾向于采取回避行为;自评驾驶能力较强、社会支持较强及驾驶信心较高的老年驾驶人的驾驶回避水平较低。老年驾驶回避行为受“个体生理-社会心理”双路径驱动,研究结果为制定精准安全管理策略提供理论依据,有助于降低老年驾驶事故风险,提升交通安全水平。 展开更多
关键词 安全工程 老年驾驶人 驾驶回避 结构方程模型 影响因素
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数字化转型赋能农业新质生产力培育:内在逻辑与政策工具组合驱动模式
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作者 杜宝贵 牛泽旭 《创新科技》 2026年第1期16-29,共14页
数字化转型契合农业新质生产力的内在特征,已成为推进我国农业农村现代化发展的核心引擎。而政策工具作为政府推进转型的权威手段,其组合策略将直接影响区域农业数字化转型的方向和成效。基于马克思主义政治经济学对农业新质生产力概念... 数字化转型契合农业新质生产力的内在特征,已成为推进我国农业农村现代化发展的核心引擎。而政策工具作为政府推进转型的权威手段,其组合策略将直接影响区域农业数字化转型的方向和成效。基于马克思主义政治经济学对农业新质生产力概念与逻辑关系的界定,综合运用程序性扎根理论和模糊集定性比较分析方法,在梳理和凝练农业数字化转型赋能农业新质生产力内在实践逻辑的基础上,进一步探寻实现赋能过程的政策工具组合路径。进而以此为基础,识别出3种差异化政策工具组合驱动模式:“规制—供给”导向的战略引擎模式强调政府统筹与制度保障,适用于行政资源集中但市场活力有待激发的地区;“内容—需求”导向的创新成长模式聚焦要素协同与市场结构优化,适用于要素流动性强的农业主产区和产业集群带;场景导向的生态共生模式则注重区域特色与生态适配,适用于特色农业优势区。据此,应通过推动政策动态完善和过程保障、增强转型包容性与成果普惠性、健全效果监测与反馈调整机制等措施,为区域农业数字化转型高质量赋能农业新质生产力培育提供支撑。 展开更多
关键词 农业数字化转型 农业新质生产力 政策工具 驱动模式 数字农业 数字经济 数字技术 科技创新
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Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Driving Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Gonghe County 被引量:14
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作者 俞文政 刘丹 +1 位作者 祁英香 史军 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2009年第4期178-182,共5页
Using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land in Gonghe County, and using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system d... Using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land in Gonghe County, and using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to inspect the effect of driving changing on cultivated land change under different change situations. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed from the county territory scale level. At last, some corresponding policies and measures were put forward. 展开更多
关键词 Gonghe County Utilized Change of cultivated land Driving force model Driving factors
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中国交通碳排放关联网络的时空动力学与驱动机制
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作者 张晨 汪秀婷 +2 位作者 杨青 刘星星 陈英杰 《环境科学》 北大核心 2026年第1期23-35,共13页
研究中国省域交通碳排放关联网络的时空依赖特征与格局及其驱动机制,对促进省域间交通碳减排与区域高质量减排协同发展具有重要意义.基于二次指派程序、社会网络分析以及探索性时空数据分析并结合多元回归二次指派程序模型探讨2003~202... 研究中国省域交通碳排放关联网络的时空依赖特征与格局及其驱动机制,对促进省域间交通碳减排与区域高质量减排协同发展具有重要意义.基于二次指派程序、社会网络分析以及探索性时空数据分析并结合多元回归二次指派程序模型探讨2003~2021年中国交通碳排放关联网络的时空动力演化交互特征与驱动机制.结果表明:(1)2003~2021年中国交通碳排放关联网络结构与强度相似度高,连接模式存在“时间惯性”,未来关联模式受历史关联状态影响明显.(2)中国交通碳排放关联网络的空间连接偏好特征明显,空间异质性突出,集聚分布日趋明显,山东、江苏、广东与上海等核心省域主导现象突出.(3)在时空交互维度上交通碳排放锁定效应与跃迁惰性突出,研究期间内省域间协同合作关系高达84.6%,但西南和北部省域间时空竞争关系突出.(4)交通碳排放关联网络的驱动机制呈现出“结构锁定-时空依赖-个体属性多样性”的特点,其中经济差异矩阵与时空交互网络对其正向影响最为显著,产业差异矩阵与运输结构差异矩阵产生同配效应的负向影响最为突出.因此建议各省从区域间协调治理、差异化减碳政策以及交通网络布局这3个方面推动区域交通碳减排目标优化与协同发展. 展开更多
关键词 交通碳排放 时空动态变化 探索性时空数据分析(ESTDA) 多元回归二次指派程序(MRQAP) 驱动机制
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基于驾驶风格辨识的能量管理策略
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作者 付翔 杨梓浩 +1 位作者 万佳琦 申楚杰 《江苏大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2026年第1期9-18,共10页
为兼顾越野车辆动力性与燃油经济性的双重需求,提出越野工况下基于驾驶风格辨识的能量管理策略.通过核主成分分析法以及聚类算法构建4种越野工况,采用随机森林算法构建工况辨识模型,滑动窗口获取工况数据,根据在线工况辨识结果,建立基... 为兼顾越野车辆动力性与燃油经济性的双重需求,提出越野工况下基于驾驶风格辨识的能量管理策略.通过核主成分分析法以及聚类算法构建4种越野工况,采用随机森林算法构建工况辨识模型,滑动窗口获取工况数据,根据在线工况辨识结果,建立基于模型预测控制理论的能量管理策略,并引入驾驶风格辨识因子优化目标函数.AVL Cruise平台仿真结果表明:与优化规则型策略相比,模型预测控制能量管理策略0~100km/h加速用时缩短了10.10%,纵向车速跟随能力提升了15.50%.实车验证结果表明:0~80km/h加速时间为6.39s、0~50m加速时间为4.91s,与规则型策略的动力性能相比,分别提升了24.12%、7.49%. 展开更多
关键词 混合动力越野车 能量管理策略 越野工况 驾驶风格辨识 模型预测控制
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山地城市扩张与碳排放响应——以重庆主城为例
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作者 谢玲 黄玉航 +2 位作者 宋知劲 陈展图 刘素红 《中国环境科学》 北大核心 2026年第2期1099-1113,共15页
基于重庆市主城区的土地利用数据、自然社会经济数据和“碳排放”数据,利用土地利用转移矩阵和斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型,分析重庆市主城区2000~2020年间城市扩张的空间演化特征,模拟2030年自然发展情景、城市发展情景、生态保护... 基于重庆市主城区的土地利用数据、自然社会经济数据和“碳排放”数据,利用土地利用转移矩阵和斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型,分析重庆市主城区2000~2020年间城市扩张的空间演化特征,模拟2030年自然发展情景、城市发展情景、生态保护情景的城市扩张,基于广义可加模型(GAM)解析2019~2022年研究区土地利用变化与碳排放响应关系,并计算了3种情景下碳排放总量.(1)2000~2020年,研究区耕地减少了928.82km^(2),建设用地增加了858.30km^(2),大量的耕地转入了建设用地之中,水域、林地、草地处于一定程度上的动态变化之中.(2)城市扩张受自然和社会经济因素的综合作用,主要驱动因素有高程、距水域距离和距1级道路距离,外在政策驱动因素对城市扩张同样具有重要影响.(3)2020~2030年重庆市主城区将继续处于快速城市化进程中,城市扩张方向以东向西向为主,林地、草地的扩张方向与城市扩张相反.(4)土地利用结构变化对碳排放的影响多呈现非线性关系,并可能存在潜在的阈值区,林地、水域、耕地变化与碳排放呈非线性,草地和建设用地变化与碳排放呈线性关系.(5)基于研究区2030年3种情景土地利用结构,估算2030年重庆主城区土地利用结构碳排分别为5929.95,6206.77,5820.41万t C/a. 展开更多
关键词 城市扩张 驱动力分析 PLUS模型 GAM模型 重庆市主城区 土地利用模拟 潜在生态冲突
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若尔盖高原生态系统碳储量变化及驱动因素分析
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作者 孟姝含 刘子刚 《中国环境科学》 北大核心 2026年第2期1084-1098,共15页
基于1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据,利用PLUS模型模拟若尔盖高原2030年自然发展、生态恢复和经济发展3种情景下的土地利用变化,并通过InVEST模型估算1980~2030年生态系统碳储量,采用地理探测器模型分析碳储量... 基于1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据,利用PLUS模型模拟若尔盖高原2030年自然发展、生态恢复和经济发展3种情景下的土地利用变化,并通过InVEST模型估算1980~2030年生态系统碳储量,采用地理探测器模型分析碳储量空间分异的驱动因素.结果表明:若尔盖高原主要土地利用类型是草地、林地和湿地,1980~2020年,该区草地面积较少,湿地和林地面积增加.若尔盖高原1980~2020年生态系统碳储量在12.40~12.91亿t之间,草地和湿地是若尔盖高原的主要储碳生态系统类型,40a来碳储量增加的区域主要在若尔盖县、玛曲县和红原县的湿地集中区.2030年生态恢复情景下碳储量与2020年相比碳储量增加414.43万t,自然发展情景下碳储量减少445.67万t,经济发展情景下碳储量减少1159.58万t.若尔盖高原生态系统碳储量的空间分异主要受自然因素作用,其中,高程、年平均气温、土壤类型和坡度均为重要驱动因素,交互作用探测表明土壤类型与坡度的交互作用影响最大. 展开更多
关键词 若尔盖高原 碳储量 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 驱动因素
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世界三大湾区经济演进模式及驱动因素研究——兼论对中国湾区经济发展的启示
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作者 郝宪印 颜培霞 钱进 《山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》 北大核心 2026年第1期169-179,共11页
湾区经济不仅是全球经济创新发展的核心引擎,也是支撑国际交流交往的重要力量。湾区经济的高质量发展,对于中国塑造新动能新优势、全面深化改革创新、促进高水平对外开放均具有重要的战略价值与意义。通过聚焦纽约湾区、旧金山湾区和东... 湾区经济不仅是全球经济创新发展的核心引擎,也是支撑国际交流交往的重要力量。湾区经济的高质量发展,对于中国塑造新动能新优势、全面深化改革创新、促进高水平对外开放均具有重要的战略价值与意义。通过聚焦纽约湾区、旧金山湾区和东京湾区这三大世界级湾区,构建“区位-经济-空间-治理”四维分析框架,从历史演进视角细致考察了湾区经济的演变规律与主要特征;基于制度、经济、空间和社会逻辑,提出驱动湾区经济演进的“战略引领力、创新驱动力、产业迭代力、协同承载力、开放包容力”五大动力模型。以此为鉴,不仅为加快推进粤港澳大湾区全面建成国际一流湾区提供有益启示,也为中国接下来培育新的湾区经济发展单元提供重要观察视角与依据。 展开更多
关键词 湾区经济 演进模式 驱动因素 粤港澳大湾区 高质量发展
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基于机器学习的土壤中磷酸三(2-氯乙基)酯的分布特征和驱动因子研究
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作者 梁斯婷 吕佳佩 +3 位作者 张艳 侯嵩 郭昌胜 徐建 《环境科学研究》 北大核心 2026年第2期427-436,共10页
磷酸三(2-氯乙基)酯(TCEP)是广泛生产使用的有机磷酸酯(OPEs)之一,因其在土壤环境中具有持久性、生物累积性和生态健康毒性,引发学界高度关注。本研究通过耦合随机森林(RF)、极端梯度提升(XGB)、支持向量回归(SVR)和K最近邻(KNN)四个机... 磷酸三(2-氯乙基)酯(TCEP)是广泛生产使用的有机磷酸酯(OPEs)之一,因其在土壤环境中具有持久性、生物累积性和生态健康毒性,引发学界高度关注。本研究通过耦合随机森林(RF)、极端梯度提升(XGB)、支持向量回归(SVR)和K最近邻(KNN)四个机器学习模型和两种传统模型(多元线性回归模型和岭回归模型)预测了TCEP浓度的时空变化规律,结合特征重要性分析和SHAP(Shapley Addictive Explanations)算法量化主要影响因素,并通过依赖图阐述环境因子影响土壤中TCEP积累的复杂耦合机制。结果表明:①机器学习模型在预测土壤污染物的性能方面优于传统模型,其中SVR模型在预测TCEP浓度方面效果最佳(R^(2)=0.98),其次是KNN(R^(2)=0.937)和XGB(R^(2)=0.913)。②基于空间自相关,证实空间依赖性的存在,所有模型均未显示显著的空间自相关(P<0.05),表明机器学习模型不受空间影响。③利用SHAP算法量化驱动因子对TCEP浓度的影响,确定土壤pH、磷肥施用量和日照持续时间是排名前三的驱动因子。④非线性效应分析阐明了这些环境协变量之间显著的协同相互作用,在日照不充沛酸性条件、低磷日照不充沛、低磷酸性条件下,TCEP浓度积累显著增加。研究显示,机器学习模型在预测土壤中TCEP污染方面的较大优势为环境大数据时代的持久性污染物风险评估和管理提供了新的视角,确定TCEP浓度的分布特征和关键因子可为管理土壤中TCEP提供科学依据和政府政策支撑。 展开更多
关键词 机器学习模型 有机磷酸酯 土壤 分布特征 驱动因子
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