It is difficult to measure the sizes of illegal drug user populations directly by using the survey method because of many “hidden drug addicts” and the difficulty of receiving a true response. Systematic and routine...It is difficult to measure the sizes of illegal drug user populations directly by using the survey method because of many “hidden drug addicts” and the difficulty of receiving a true response. Systematic and routine information on treatment episodes of drug users is adopted to estimate the population size in this study. Mixture models of zero-truncated Poisson distributions using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLE) by means of capture-recapture repeated count data were used to project the number of drug users. The method was applied to surveillance data of drug users identified by treatment episodes in over 1140 health treatment centers in Thailand from the Bureau of Health Service System Development, Ministry of Public Health. We presented how this mixture model could be utilized to construct the unobserved frequency of drug users with no treatment episode and further estimated the total population size of drug users in the country from 2005 to 2007. The result of simulation was confirmed that mixture model is suitable when population is large. By means of mixture models, the estimations for the number of drug users were fitted with excellent goodness-of-fit values and we were also compared to the conventional Chao estimates. The NPMLE for the total number of drug users in Thailand 2005, 2006, and 2007 were 184,045 (95% CI: 181,297-86,793), 230,665 (95% CI: 226,611-234,719), 299,670 (95% CI: 294,217-305,123), respectively, also 125,265 (95% CI: 123,092-127,142), 166,287 (95% CI: 163,222-169,352), 228,898 (95% CI: 224,766 - 233,030) for the number of methamphetamine (Yaba) users, and 11,559 (95% CI: 10,234-12,884), 11,333 (95% CI: 9276-13,390), 8953 (95% CI: 7878-10,028) for the number of heroin users, respectively. The numbers of marijuana, kratom-plant, opium, and inhalant users were underestimated because their symptoms were mild and not severe enough to remedy in health treatment centers which led to the smaller size of the total number of drug users. The well-estimated sizes of heroin and methamphetamine addicts are high reliable because they are based on clearly evident count with a severe addiction problem to health treatment centers. The estimation by means of mixture models can be recommended to monitor drug demand trend and drug health service routinely;it is easy to calculate via the available programs MIXTP based on request.展开更多
In this paper, we focused on the identification of the normal and abnormal glow discharge modes in a neon-xenon gas mixture at low pressure. We considered four gas mixtures： 90%Ne-10%Xe, 80%Ne-20%Xe, 70%Ne-30%Xe and ...In this paper, we focused on the identification of the normal and abnormal glow discharge modes in a neon-xenon gas mixture at low pressure. We considered four gas mixtures： 90%Ne-10%Xe, 80%Ne-20%Xe, 70%Ne-30%Xe and 50%Ne-50%Xe at 1.5 Torr. The range of the gap voltage is 150-500 V. A one-dimensional fluid model with multiple species was used in this work, and the metastable state of the atoms as well as the radiation effects were integrated into the model too. The input data changed for each percentage in the gas mixture, and was calculated by BOLSIG＋ software. The parameters of particle transport and their rate coefficients strictly depend on the mean electron energy. The results show that the neon ion density is negligible compared to the xenon ion density, mostly in the case of 50%Ne-50%Xe.展开更多
A new covariate dependent zero-truncated bivariate Poisson model is proposed in this paper employing generalized linear model. A marginal-conditional approach is used to show the bivariate model. The proposed model wi...A new covariate dependent zero-truncated bivariate Poisson model is proposed in this paper employing generalized linear model. A marginal-conditional approach is used to show the bivariate model. The proposed model with estimation procedure and tests for goodness-of-fit and under (or over) dispersion are shown and applied to road safety data. Two correlated outcome variables considered in this study are number of cars involved in an accident and number of casualties for given number of cars.展开更多
It is a well known fact that for the hierarchical model of a Poisson random variable Y?whose mean has an Erlang distribution, the unconditional distribution of Y is negative binomial. However, the proofs in the litera...It is a well known fact that for the hierarchical model of a Poisson random variable Y?whose mean has an Erlang distribution, the unconditional distribution of Y is negative binomial. However, the proofs in the literature [1] [2] provide no intuitive understanding as to why this result should be true. It is the purpose of this manuscript to give a new proof of this result which provides such an understanding. The memoryless property of the exponential distribution allows one to conclude that the events in two independent Poisson processes may be regarded as Bernoulli trials, and this fact is used to achieve the research purpose. Another goal of this manuscript is to give another proof of this last fact which does not rely on the memoryless property.展开更多
The productivity of medical staff within a polyclinic is not an easy task due to the multiple activities that physicians must perform at the same time: not only healthcare for patients, but also academic activities, s...The productivity of medical staff within a polyclinic is not an easy task due to the multiple activities that physicians must perform at the same time: not only healthcare for patients, but also academic activities, such as scientific research and teaching. Hybrid professionals are healthcare professionals who have to play multiple roles, often not precisely identified. This analysis examines the case study of the University Polyclinic of Messina (Italy) where three university departments and 7 Dipartimenti di Attività Integrate (DAI) are distinguished and physicians (both professors and researchers) are called to reconcile multiple tasks. Given the distinction between university departments and DAIs, the aim of this contribution is to identify the organizational elements that prove to be predictors of scientific efficiency and productivity. To what extent does the inclusion in a DAI or within a university department affect individual incentives? A new dataset is built for the present research containing information on University Polyclinic of Messina physicians (full professors, associate professors, researchers). From the Scopus online database (<a href="https://www.scopus.com/home.uri">https://www.scopus.com/home.uri) individual information relating to the number of publications, the number of citations, h-index was obtained. The latter is used to assess the quality of individual research;in order to evaluate the teaching activity, the number of hours dedicated to didactical activities is taken into account, together with the number of teaching hours required by one’s role. Information related to remuneration and the circumstance of carrying out intramural activities has also been included. A thorough statistical analysis is carried out and the individual groups (DAI and university departments) are compared through the Kruskal Wallis test. Estimating a Poisson Gamma mixture model highlights those variables that are significant predictors of scientific productivity. Attention paid to organizational methods should allow identifying the ideal setting for hybrid professionals to practice the medical profession, while carrying out managerial duties, without compromising the quality of teaching and research. An efficient solution could thus be proposed to the complex multi-objective optimization problem that healthcare professionals are called to answer.展开更多
文摘It is difficult to measure the sizes of illegal drug user populations directly by using the survey method because of many “hidden drug addicts” and the difficulty of receiving a true response. Systematic and routine information on treatment episodes of drug users is adopted to estimate the population size in this study. Mixture models of zero-truncated Poisson distributions using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLE) by means of capture-recapture repeated count data were used to project the number of drug users. The method was applied to surveillance data of drug users identified by treatment episodes in over 1140 health treatment centers in Thailand from the Bureau of Health Service System Development, Ministry of Public Health. We presented how this mixture model could be utilized to construct the unobserved frequency of drug users with no treatment episode and further estimated the total population size of drug users in the country from 2005 to 2007. The result of simulation was confirmed that mixture model is suitable when population is large. By means of mixture models, the estimations for the number of drug users were fitted with excellent goodness-of-fit values and we were also compared to the conventional Chao estimates. The NPMLE for the total number of drug users in Thailand 2005, 2006, and 2007 were 184,045 (95% CI: 181,297-86,793), 230,665 (95% CI: 226,611-234,719), 299,670 (95% CI: 294,217-305,123), respectively, also 125,265 (95% CI: 123,092-127,142), 166,287 (95% CI: 163,222-169,352), 228,898 (95% CI: 224,766 - 233,030) for the number of methamphetamine (Yaba) users, and 11,559 (95% CI: 10,234-12,884), 11,333 (95% CI: 9276-13,390), 8953 (95% CI: 7878-10,028) for the number of heroin users, respectively. The numbers of marijuana, kratom-plant, opium, and inhalant users were underestimated because their symptoms were mild and not severe enough to remedy in health treatment centers which led to the smaller size of the total number of drug users. The well-estimated sizes of heroin and methamphetamine addicts are high reliable because they are based on clearly evident count with a severe addiction problem to health treatment centers. The estimation by means of mixture models can be recommended to monitor drug demand trend and drug health service routinely;it is easy to calculate via the available programs MIXTP based on request.
文摘In this paper, we focused on the identification of the normal and abnormal glow discharge modes in a neon-xenon gas mixture at low pressure. We considered four gas mixtures： 90%Ne-10%Xe, 80%Ne-20%Xe, 70%Ne-30%Xe and 50%Ne-50%Xe at 1.5 Torr. The range of the gap voltage is 150-500 V. A one-dimensional fluid model with multiple species was used in this work, and the metastable state of the atoms as well as the radiation effects were integrated into the model too. The input data changed for each percentage in the gas mixture, and was calculated by BOLSIG＋ software. The parameters of particle transport and their rate coefficients strictly depend on the mean electron energy. The results show that the neon ion density is negligible compared to the xenon ion density, mostly in the case of 50%Ne-50%Xe.
文摘A new covariate dependent zero-truncated bivariate Poisson model is proposed in this paper employing generalized linear model. A marginal-conditional approach is used to show the bivariate model. The proposed model with estimation procedure and tests for goodness-of-fit and under (or over) dispersion are shown and applied to road safety data. Two correlated outcome variables considered in this study are number of cars involved in an accident and number of casualties for given number of cars.
文摘It is a well known fact that for the hierarchical model of a Poisson random variable Y?whose mean has an Erlang distribution, the unconditional distribution of Y is negative binomial. However, the proofs in the literature [1] [2] provide no intuitive understanding as to why this result should be true. It is the purpose of this manuscript to give a new proof of this result which provides such an understanding. The memoryless property of the exponential distribution allows one to conclude that the events in two independent Poisson processes may be regarded as Bernoulli trials, and this fact is used to achieve the research purpose. Another goal of this manuscript is to give another proof of this last fact which does not rely on the memoryless property.
文摘The productivity of medical staff within a polyclinic is not an easy task due to the multiple activities that physicians must perform at the same time: not only healthcare for patients, but also academic activities, such as scientific research and teaching. Hybrid professionals are healthcare professionals who have to play multiple roles, often not precisely identified. This analysis examines the case study of the University Polyclinic of Messina (Italy) where three university departments and 7 Dipartimenti di Attività Integrate (DAI) are distinguished and physicians (both professors and researchers) are called to reconcile multiple tasks. Given the distinction between university departments and DAIs, the aim of this contribution is to identify the organizational elements that prove to be predictors of scientific efficiency and productivity. To what extent does the inclusion in a DAI or within a university department affect individual incentives? A new dataset is built for the present research containing information on University Polyclinic of Messina physicians (full professors, associate professors, researchers). From the Scopus online database (<a href="https://www.scopus.com/home.uri">https://www.scopus.com/home.uri) individual information relating to the number of publications, the number of citations, h-index was obtained. The latter is used to assess the quality of individual research;in order to evaluate the teaching activity, the number of hours dedicated to didactical activities is taken into account, together with the number of teaching hours required by one’s role. Information related to remuneration and the circumstance of carrying out intramural activities has also been included. A thorough statistical analysis is carried out and the individual groups (DAI and university departments) are compared through the Kruskal Wallis test. Estimating a Poisson Gamma mixture model highlights those variables that are significant predictors of scientific productivity. Attention paid to organizational methods should allow identifying the ideal setting for hybrid professionals to practice the medical profession, while carrying out managerial duties, without compromising the quality of teaching and research. An efficient solution could thus be proposed to the complex multi-objective optimization problem that healthcare professionals are called to answer.
