Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,...Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.展开更多
This paper is concerned with the aging and dependence properties in the additive hazard mixing models including some stochastic comparisons. Further, some useful bounds of reliability functions in additive hazard mixi...This paper is concerned with the aging and dependence properties in the additive hazard mixing models including some stochastic comparisons. Further, some useful bounds of reliability functions in additive hazard mixing models are obtained.展开更多
The quasi-steady methods based on mixing models have been widely applied to flow computations of turbomachinery multi- stages in aerospace engineering. Meanwhile, the unsteady numerical simulation has also been used d...The quasi-steady methods based on mixing models have been widely applied to flow computations of turbomachinery multi- stages in aerospace engineering. Meanwhile, the unsteady numerical simulation has also been used due to its ability in obtaining time-dependent flow solutions. In the paper, two different mixing treatments and the corresponding flux balanced ones are presented to exchange the flow solutions on the interfaces between adjacent blade rows. The four mixing treatments are then used for flow computations of a subsonic 1.5-stage axial turbine and a quasi-l.5-stage transonic compressor rotor. The results are compared with those by unsteady numerical method, which is implemented by using the sliding mesh technique. The effects of the quasi-steady and unsteady computation methods on the conservation of flow solutions across the interfaces are presented and addressed. Furthermore, the influence of mixing treatments on shock wave and flow separation of the transonic compressor rotor is presented in detail. All the results demonstrate that the flux balanced mixing treatments can be used for multi-stage flow computations with improved performance on interface conservation, even in the complex flows.展开更多
In this paper, the measurement of liquid mixing in a downcomer of segmental type of distillation column is presented. The extent of liquid mixing is calculated by means of a mixing pool model. The results indicate tha...In this paper, the measurement of liquid mixing in a downcomer of segmental type of distillation column is presented. The extent of liquid mixing is calculated by means of a mixing pool model. The results indicate that liquid mixing in a downcomer is actually incomplete. It is a significant correction to the assumption of complete downcomer mixing or no downcomer mixing which is generally adopted in many distillation calculations. Besides, the present results are used in a two dimensional eddy diffusion model to calculate the distillation tray efficiency. It is shown that the assumption of complete downcomer mixing is closer to the actual situation than that of no downcomer mixing.展开更多
Mountain communities in Nepal are increasingly exposed to climate-induced shifts in water availability,driven by glacial retreat,altered precipitation/snowmelt regimes,and declining groundwater sources.This study pres...Mountain communities in Nepal are increasingly exposed to climate-induced shifts in water availability,driven by glacial retreat,altered precipitation/snowmelt regimes,and declining groundwater sources.This study presents an integrated framework combining hydrological source analysis with socio-demographic survey data to evaluate seasonal water contributions and communitylevel water use patterns in the Upper Marsyangdi catchment,Manang District,Nepal.Isotopic(δ^(18)O)and geochemical(silica)tracers were used in a Bayesian mixing model to quantify the seasonal contributions of glacial melt,snow,rain,and groundwater to river flow.Findings indicate that groundwater dominates pre-monsoon flow(60%-70%)while post-monsoon discharge reflects more balanced inputs from all sources.In parallel,120 household surveys were analysed using Latent Class Analysis to characterise water use across domestic,agricultural,energy,and tourism sectors.Results reveal spatial and demographic gradients in water source dependency,including gender and occupation as important predictors of water use.Respondents reported perceived increases in spring flow,alongside reductions in the availability of snow for household and tourism use and deteriorating river water quality and quantity,particularly affecting hydropower operations.Adaptation strategies include increased reliance on water storage infrastructure and source switching.The study highlights the value of applying probabilistic methods to hydrological and sociocultural data to identify vulnerable populations and inform targeted,context-sensitive adaptation strategies.The proposed framework is transferable to other high-altitude regions,offering a robust approach for assessing climate resilience through the synthesis of scientific and local knowledge systems.展开更多
Identifying plant water sources is fundamental for elucidating ecohydrological processes and improving water resource management in arid zones under climate change.Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes are commonly used...Identifying plant water sources is fundamental for elucidating ecohydrological processes and improving water resource management in arid zones under climate change.Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes are commonly used to trace plant water uptake;however,cryogenic vacuum extraction(CVE),the standard method for extracting plant xylem water,may induce deuterium depletion,thereby biasing source attribution.To systematically assess the effects of CVE-induced deuterium depletion across species,size classes,and habitats,we excavated five representative soil profiles along the mainstream of the Tarim River in northwestern China,in mid-July 2022.A total of 29 individuals,comprising both Populus euphratica and Tamarix ramosissima,were sampled.We divided P.euphratica individuals into four groups based on diameter at breast height(<50,50-100,100-250,and>250 cm),while categorized T.ramosissima individuals into four groups according to plant height(<1.0,1.0-2.0,2.0-4.0,and>4.0 m).Plant xylem water was extracted using CVE,and five deuterium depletion scenarios(-5.00‰,-7.00‰,-9.00‰,-11.00‰,and-13.00‰)were simulated.The Bayesian Mixing Model for Stable Isotope Analysis in R(MixSIAR)was applied under six input modes to quantify the proportional contributions of potential water sources and associated prediction errors.Model evaluation revealed that P.euphratica achieved the highest accuracy with a-9.00‰correction of depletion,whereas a-11.00‰ correction was optimal for T.ramosissima,reducing relative prediction errors by 68.65%and 67.73%,respectively,compared with uncorrected scenario.Small-sized P.euphratica individuals exhibited less deuterium depletion,whereas no clear size-dependent pattern was observed for T.ramosissima.Spatially,plant individuals located farther from the river exhibited reduced deuterium depletion in xylem water.Despite differences in species traits and habitat conditions,both species predominantly relied on deep soil water and groundwater,which together contributed,on average,61.45%and 59.95%for P.euphratica and T.ramosissima,respectively.These findings highlight the necessity of accounting for CVE-induced deuterium depletion when identifying plant water-use strategies and provide methodological guidance for isotope-based ecohydrological studies in arid environments.展开更多
The current research of large eddy simulation （LES） of turbulent flow in pumps mainly concentrates in applying conventional subgrid-scale （SGS） model to simulate turbulent flow, which aims at obtaining the flow fi...The current research of large eddy simulation （LES） of turbulent flow in pumps mainly concentrates in applying conventional subgrid-scale （SGS） model to simulate turbulent flow, which aims at obtaining the flow field in pump. The selection of SGS model is usually not considered seriously, so the accuracy and efficiency of the simulation cannot be ensured. Three SGS models including Smagorinsky-Lilly model, dynamic Smagorinsky model and dynamic mixed model are comparably studied by using the commercial CFD code Fluent combined with its user define function. The simulations are performed for the turbulent flow in a centrifugal pump impeller. The simulation results indicate that the mean flows predicted by the three SGS models agree well with the experimental data obtained from the test that detailed measurements of the flow inside the rotating passages of a six-bladed shrouded centrifugal pump impeller performed using particle image velocimetry （PIV） and laser Doppler velocimetry （LDV）. The comparable results show that dynamic mixed model gives the most accurate results for mean flow in the centrifugal pump impeller. The SGS stress of dynamic mixed model is decompose into the scale similar part and the eddy viscous part. The scale similar part of SGS stress plays a significant role in high curvature regions, such as the leading edge and training edge of pump blade. It is also found that the dynamic mixed model is more adaptive to compute turbulence in the pump impeller. The research results presented is useful to improve the computational accuracy and efficiency of LES for centrifugal pumps, and provide important reference for carrying out simulation in similar fluid machineries.展开更多
The numerical simulation of modern aero-engine combustion chamber needs accurate description of the interaction between turbulence and chemical reaction mechanism. The Large Eddy Simulation(LES) method with the Transp...The numerical simulation of modern aero-engine combustion chamber needs accurate description of the interaction between turbulence and chemical reaction mechanism. The Large Eddy Simulation(LES) method with the Transported Probability Density Function(TPDF) turbulence combustion model is promising in engineering applications. In flame region, the impact of chemical reaction should be considered in TPDF molecular mixing model. Based on pioneer research, three new TPDF turbulence-chemistry dual time scale molecular mixing models were proposed tentatively by adding the chemistry time scale in molecular mixing model for nonpremixed flame. The Aero-Engine Combustor Simulation Code(AECSC) which is based on LES-TPDF method was combined with the three new models. Then the Sandia laboratory's methane-air jet flames: Flame D and Flame E were simulated. Transient simulation results show that all the three new models can predict the instantaneous combustion flow pattern of the jet flames. Furthermore,the average scalar statistical results were compared with the experimental data. The simulation result of the new TPDF arithmetic mean modification model is the closest to the experimental data:the average error in Flame D is 7.6% and 6.6% in Flame E. The extinction and re-ignition phenomena of the jet flames especially Flame E were captured. The turbulence time scale and the chemistry time scale are in different order in the whole flow field. The dual time scale TPDF combustion model has ability to deal with both the turbulence effect and the chemistry reaction effect, as well as their interaction more accurately for nonpremixed flames.展开更多
Background:We used mixed models with random components to develop height-diameter(h-d) functions for mixed,uneven-aged stands in northwestern Durango(Mexico),considering the breast height diameter(d) and stand variabl...Background:We used mixed models with random components to develop height-diameter(h-d) functions for mixed,uneven-aged stands in northwestern Durango(Mexico),considering the breast height diameter(d) and stand variables as predictors.Methods:The data were obtained from 44 permanent plots used to monitor stand growth under forest management in the study area.Results:The generalized Bertalanffy-Richards model performed better than the other generalized models in predicting the total height of the species under study.For the genera Pinus and Quercus,the models were successfully calibrated by measuring the height of a subsample of three randomly selected trees close to the mean d,whereas for species of the genera Cupressus,Arbutus and Alnus,three trees were also selected,but they are specifically the maximum,minimum and mean d trees.Conclusions:The presented equations represent a new tool for the evaluation and management of natural forest in the region.展开更多
Fluid flow and mixing of molten steel in a twin-slab-strand continuous casting tundish were investigated using a mixing model under non-isothermal conditions.This model led to a set of ordinary differential equations ...Fluid flow and mixing of molten steel in a twin-slab-strand continuous casting tundish were investigated using a mixing model under non-isothermal conditions.This model led to a set of ordinary differential equations that were solved with a Runge-Kutta algorithm.Steady state water modeling was carried out under non-isothermal conditions.Experimental data obtained from the water model were used to calibrate the mixing model.Owing to the presence of a mixed convection in the non-isothermal conditions,a channelizing flow would be created in the fluid inside the tundish.A mixing model was designed that was capable of predicting RTD（residence time distribution）curves for different cases in non-isothermal conditions.The relationship between RTD parameters and the Tu（tundish Richardson number）was obtained for various cases under non-isothermal conditions.The results show that the RTD parameters were completely different under isothermal and non-isothermal conditions.The comparison of the RTD curves between the isothermal and non-isothermal conditions presents that the extent of mixing in the tundish in non-isothermal conditions is lower than the mixing extent in isothermal conditions.展开更多
In this article, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. Two new classes of estimators obtained by shrinking the eigenvalues towards the origin and the arithmetic ...In this article, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. Two new classes of estimators obtained by shrinking the eigenvalues towards the origin and the arithmetic mean, respectively, are proposed. It is shown that these new estimators dominate the unbiased estimator under the squared error loss function. Finally, some simulation results to compare the performance of the proposed estimators with that of the unbiased estimator are reported. The simulation results indicate that these new shrinkage estimators provide a substantial improvement in risk under most situations.展开更多
Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochast...Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.展开更多
Background: Predictive models shed light on aboveground fungal yield dynamics and can assist decision-making in forestry by integrating this valuable non-wood forest product into forest management planning. However, t...Background: Predictive models shed light on aboveground fungal yield dynamics and can assist decision-making in forestry by integrating this valuable non-wood forest product into forest management planning. However, the currently existing models are based on rather local data and, thus, there is a lack of predictive tools to monitor mushroom yields on larger scales.Results: This work presents the first empirical models for predicting the annual yields of ectomycorrhizal mushrooms and related ecosystem services in Pinus sylvestris and Pinus pinaster stands in northern Spain, using a long-term dataset suitable to account for the combined effect of meteorological conditions and stand structure.Models were fitted for the following groups of fungi separately: all ectomycorrhizal mushrooms, edible mushrooms and marketed mushrooms. Our results show the influence of the weather variables(mainly precipitation) on mushroom yields as well as the relevance of the basal area of the forest stand that follows a right-skewed unimodal curve with maximum predicted yields at stand basal areas of 30–40 m2·ha-1.Conclusion: These models are the first empirical models for predicting the annual yields of ectomycorrhizal mushrooms in Pinus sylvestris and Pinus pinaster stands in northern Spain, being of the highest resolution developed to date and enable predictions of mushrooms productivity by taking into account weather conditions and forests’ location, composition and structure.展开更多
The transient behaviors of traditional adaptive control may be very poor in general. A practically feasible approach to improve the transient performances is the adoption of adaptive switc- hing control. For a typical...The transient behaviors of traditional adaptive control may be very poor in general. A practically feasible approach to improve the transient performances is the adoption of adaptive switc- hing control. For a typical class of nonlinear systems disturbed by random noises, mixed multiple models consisting of adaptive model and fixed models were considered to design the switching con- trol law. Under certain assumptions, the nonlinear system with the switching control law was proved rigorously to be stable and optimal A simulation example was provided to compare the performance of the switching control and the traditional adaptive control.展开更多
Residence time distribution (RTD) analysis of liquid phase was conducted in an internal airlift loop reactor (AL) and a bubble column (BC) with the tracer response technique. These data were simulated and compared thr...Residence time distribution (RTD) analysis of liquid phase was conducted in an internal airlift loop reactor (AL) and a bubble column (BC) with the tracer response technique. These data were simulated and compared through several flow mixing models. The modeling results of two-parameter model indicated that there were higher ratio of full mixing zones and lower ratio of bypass flow in AL than in BC. Then a completely mixed-plug flow parallel combined (four-parameter) model was established. Modeling results show that it is more precise and more obvious than two-parameter model.展开更多
Several computer packages have been developed to accomplish improved programs for animal breeding and genetic selection. This paper described most of the currant software and provided suggestions for improved software...Several computer packages have been developed to accomplish improved programs for animal breeding and genetic selection. This paper described most of the currant software and provided suggestions for improved software. Khon Kaen University, Thailand, will provide free of charge the new software developed at Khon Kaen University by the author of this paper. The contact for requesting the software is listed: monchai@kku.ac.th.展开更多
The effects of atomic-level rnixing are systemically investigated in a multifluid interpenetration mix model ,and results are compared with the single-fluid model＇s simulations and experimental data. It is shown that...The effects of atomic-level rnixing are systemically investigated in a multifluid interpenetration mix model ,and results are compared with the single-fluid model＇s simulations and experimental data. It is shown that increasing the model free parameter α, shock Mach number, and the initial density discontinuity makes the mix length and fraction of mixing particle increase, resulting in the lower shock temperatures compared with the results of single-fluid model without mixing. Recent high-compressibility direct-drive spherical implosions on OMEGA are simulated by the interpenetration mix modal. The calculations with atomic mixing between fuel and shell match quite well with the observations. Without considering any mixing, the calculated neutron yields and ion temperatures are overpredicted; while inclusion of the interpenetration mix model with the adjustable parameter α could fit the simulated neutron yields and ion temperatures well with experimental data.展开更多
The mixed distribution model is often used to extract information from heteroge-neous data and perform modeling analysis.When the density function of mixed distribution is complicated or the variable dimension is high...The mixed distribution model is often used to extract information from heteroge-neous data and perform modeling analysis.When the density function of mixed distribution is complicated or the variable dimension is high,it usually brings challenges to the parameter es-timation of the mixed distribution model.The application of MM algorithm can avoid complex expectation calculations,and can also solve the problem of high-dimensional optimization by decomposing the objective function.In this paper,MM algorithm is applied to the parameter estimation problem of mixed distribution model.The method of assembly and decomposition is used to construct the substitute function with separable parameters,which avoids the problems of complex expectation calculations and the inversion of high-dimensional matrices.展开更多
This paper compares the stock return distribution models of mixture normal distribution, mixed diffusion-jump and GARCH models based on the data of Chinese stock market. The Schwarz criterion is also used. We find all...This paper compares the stock return distribution models of mixture normal distribution, mixed diffusion-jump and GARCH models based on the data of Chinese stock market. The Schwarz criterion is also used. We find all these models can capture the features of stock returns partly. EGARCH model is the best fitting to daily return and stable during different period. When the weekly and monthly returns are tested, the differences of the models＇ fitness become unobvious and unstable.展开更多
Today, Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) are fitted, mostly, by assuming that random effects and errors have Gaussian distributions, therefore using Maximum Likelihood (ML) or REML estimation. However, for many data sets, th...Today, Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) are fitted, mostly, by assuming that random effects and errors have Gaussian distributions, therefore using Maximum Likelihood (ML) or REML estimation. However, for many data sets, that double assumption is unlikely to hold, particularly for the random effects, a crucial component </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">in </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">which assessment of magnitude is key in such modeling. Alternative fitting methods not relying on that assumption (as ANOVA ones and Rao</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">’</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s MINQUE) apply, quite often, only to the very constrained class of variance components models. In this paper, a new computationally feasible estimation methodology is designed, first for the widely used class of 2-level (or longitudinal) LMMs with only assumption (beyond the usual basic ones) that residual errors are uncorrelated and homoscedastic, with no distributional assumption imposed on the random effects. A major asset of this new approach is that it yields nonnegative variance estimates and covariance matrices estimates which are symmetric and, at least, positive semi-definite. Furthermore, it is shown that when the LMM is, indeed, Gaussian, this new methodology differs from ML just through a slight variation in the denominator of the residual variance estimate. The new methodology actually generalizes to LMMs a well known nonparametric fitting procedure for standard Linear Models. Finally, the methodology is also extended to ANOVA LMMs, generalizing an old method by Henderson for ML estimation in such models under normality.展开更多
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42261008,41971034)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province,China(22JR5RA074).
文摘Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.
基金Supported by the Scientific Research Foundation of Hebei University of Science and Technology
文摘This paper is concerned with the aging and dependence properties in the additive hazard mixing models including some stochastic comparisons. Further, some useful bounds of reliability functions in additive hazard mixing models are obtained.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51376009&51676003)
文摘The quasi-steady methods based on mixing models have been widely applied to flow computations of turbomachinery multi- stages in aerospace engineering. Meanwhile, the unsteady numerical simulation has also been used due to its ability in obtaining time-dependent flow solutions. In the paper, two different mixing treatments and the corresponding flux balanced ones are presented to exchange the flow solutions on the interfaces between adjacent blade rows. The four mixing treatments are then used for flow computations of a subsonic 1.5-stage axial turbine and a quasi-l.5-stage transonic compressor rotor. The results are compared with those by unsteady numerical method, which is implemented by using the sliding mesh technique. The effects of the quasi-steady and unsteady computation methods on the conservation of flow solutions across the interfaces are presented and addressed. Furthermore, the influence of mixing treatments on shock wave and flow separation of the transonic compressor rotor is presented in detail. All the results demonstrate that the flux balanced mixing treatments can be used for multi-stage flow computations with improved performance on interface conservation, even in the complex flows.
文摘In this paper, the measurement of liquid mixing in a downcomer of segmental type of distillation column is presented. The extent of liquid mixing is calculated by means of a mixing pool model. The results indicate that liquid mixing in a downcomer is actually incomplete. It is a significant correction to the assumption of complete downcomer mixing or no downcomer mixing which is generally adopted in many distillation calculations. Besides, the present results are used in a two dimensional eddy diffusion model to calculate the distillation tray efficiency. It is shown that the assumption of complete downcomer mixing is closer to the actual situation than that of no downcomer mixing.
基金funded by the Natural Environment Research Council’s Global Challenges Research Fund(NE/P016146/1)。
文摘Mountain communities in Nepal are increasingly exposed to climate-induced shifts in water availability,driven by glacial retreat,altered precipitation/snowmelt regimes,and declining groundwater sources.This study presents an integrated framework combining hydrological source analysis with socio-demographic survey data to evaluate seasonal water contributions and communitylevel water use patterns in the Upper Marsyangdi catchment,Manang District,Nepal.Isotopic(δ^(18)O)and geochemical(silica)tracers were used in a Bayesian mixing model to quantify the seasonal contributions of glacial melt,snow,rain,and groundwater to river flow.Findings indicate that groundwater dominates pre-monsoon flow(60%-70%)while post-monsoon discharge reflects more balanced inputs from all sources.In parallel,120 household surveys were analysed using Latent Class Analysis to characterise water use across domestic,agricultural,energy,and tourism sectors.Results reveal spatial and demographic gradients in water source dependency,including gender and occupation as important predictors of water use.Respondents reported perceived increases in spring flow,alongside reductions in the availability of snow for household and tourism use and deteriorating river water quality and quantity,particularly affecting hydropower operations.Adaptation strategies include increased reliance on water storage infrastructure and source switching.The study highlights the value of applying probabilistic methods to hydrological and sociocultural data to identify vulnerable populations and inform targeted,context-sensitive adaptation strategies.The proposed framework is transferable to other high-altitude regions,offering a robust approach for assessing climate resilience through the synthesis of scientific and local knowledge systems.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2023YFC3206801)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171041).
文摘Identifying plant water sources is fundamental for elucidating ecohydrological processes and improving water resource management in arid zones under climate change.Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes are commonly used to trace plant water uptake;however,cryogenic vacuum extraction(CVE),the standard method for extracting plant xylem water,may induce deuterium depletion,thereby biasing source attribution.To systematically assess the effects of CVE-induced deuterium depletion across species,size classes,and habitats,we excavated five representative soil profiles along the mainstream of the Tarim River in northwestern China,in mid-July 2022.A total of 29 individuals,comprising both Populus euphratica and Tamarix ramosissima,were sampled.We divided P.euphratica individuals into four groups based on diameter at breast height(<50,50-100,100-250,and>250 cm),while categorized T.ramosissima individuals into four groups according to plant height(<1.0,1.0-2.0,2.0-4.0,and>4.0 m).Plant xylem water was extracted using CVE,and five deuterium depletion scenarios(-5.00‰,-7.00‰,-9.00‰,-11.00‰,and-13.00‰)were simulated.The Bayesian Mixing Model for Stable Isotope Analysis in R(MixSIAR)was applied under six input modes to quantify the proportional contributions of potential water sources and associated prediction errors.Model evaluation revealed that P.euphratica achieved the highest accuracy with a-9.00‰correction of depletion,whereas a-11.00‰ correction was optimal for T.ramosissima,reducing relative prediction errors by 68.65%and 67.73%,respectively,compared with uncorrected scenario.Small-sized P.euphratica individuals exhibited less deuterium depletion,whereas no clear size-dependent pattern was observed for T.ramosissima.Spatially,plant individuals located farther from the river exhibited reduced deuterium depletion in xylem water.Despite differences in species traits and habitat conditions,both species predominantly relied on deep soil water and groundwater,which together contributed,on average,61.45%and 59.95%for P.euphratica and T.ramosissima,respectively.These findings highlight the necessity of accounting for CVE-induced deuterium depletion when identifying plant water-use strategies and provide methodological guidance for isotope-based ecohydrological studies in arid environments.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51139007, 51079151, 51079152)Research Fundfor the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (Grant No. 0100008110012)
文摘The current research of large eddy simulation （LES） of turbulent flow in pumps mainly concentrates in applying conventional subgrid-scale （SGS） model to simulate turbulent flow, which aims at obtaining the flow field in pump. The selection of SGS model is usually not considered seriously, so the accuracy and efficiency of the simulation cannot be ensured. Three SGS models including Smagorinsky-Lilly model, dynamic Smagorinsky model and dynamic mixed model are comparably studied by using the commercial CFD code Fluent combined with its user define function. The simulations are performed for the turbulent flow in a centrifugal pump impeller. The simulation results indicate that the mean flows predicted by the three SGS models agree well with the experimental data obtained from the test that detailed measurements of the flow inside the rotating passages of a six-bladed shrouded centrifugal pump impeller performed using particle image velocimetry （PIV） and laser Doppler velocimetry （LDV）. The comparable results show that dynamic mixed model gives the most accurate results for mean flow in the centrifugal pump impeller. The SGS stress of dynamic mixed model is decompose into the scale similar part and the eddy viscous part. The scale similar part of SGS stress plays a significant role in high curvature regions, such as the leading edge and training edge of pump blade. It is also found that the dynamic mixed model is more adaptive to compute turbulence in the pump impeller. The research results presented is useful to improve the computational accuracy and efficiency of LES for centrifugal pumps, and provide important reference for carrying out simulation in similar fluid machineries.
基金co-supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Nos.2017YFB0202400 and 2017YFB0202402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.91741125)the Project of Newton International Fellowship Alumnus from Royal Society(No.AL120003)
文摘The numerical simulation of modern aero-engine combustion chamber needs accurate description of the interaction between turbulence and chemical reaction mechanism. The Large Eddy Simulation(LES) method with the Transported Probability Density Function(TPDF) turbulence combustion model is promising in engineering applications. In flame region, the impact of chemical reaction should be considered in TPDF molecular mixing model. Based on pioneer research, three new TPDF turbulence-chemistry dual time scale molecular mixing models were proposed tentatively by adding the chemistry time scale in molecular mixing model for nonpremixed flame. The Aero-Engine Combustor Simulation Code(AECSC) which is based on LES-TPDF method was combined with the three new models. Then the Sandia laboratory's methane-air jet flames: Flame D and Flame E were simulated. Transient simulation results show that all the three new models can predict the instantaneous combustion flow pattern of the jet flames. Furthermore,the average scalar statistical results were compared with the experimental data. The simulation result of the new TPDF arithmetic mean modification model is the closest to the experimental data:the average error in Flame D is 7.6% and 6.6% in Flame E. The extinction and re-ignition phenomena of the jet flames especially Flame E were captured. The turbulence time scale and the chemistry time scale are in different order in the whole flow field. The dual time scale TPDF combustion model has ability to deal with both the turbulence effect and the chemistry reaction effect, as well as their interaction more accurately for nonpremixed flames.
基金financially supported by the"Programa de Mejoramiento del Profesorado"(project:Seguimiento y Evaluacion de Sitios Permanentes de Investigación Forestal y el Impacto Socioeconómico delManejo Forestal en Norte de México)supported by"Programa Banco Santander-USC"(becas para estancias predoctorales destinadas a docentes e investigadores de America Latina)
文摘Background:We used mixed models with random components to develop height-diameter(h-d) functions for mixed,uneven-aged stands in northwestern Durango(Mexico),considering the breast height diameter(d) and stand variables as predictors.Methods:The data were obtained from 44 permanent plots used to monitor stand growth under forest management in the study area.Results:The generalized Bertalanffy-Richards model performed better than the other generalized models in predicting the total height of the species under study.For the genera Pinus and Quercus,the models were successfully calibrated by measuring the height of a subsample of three randomly selected trees close to the mean d,whereas for species of the genera Cupressus,Arbutus and Alnus,three trees were also selected,but they are specifically the maximum,minimum and mean d trees.Conclusions:The presented equations represent a new tool for the evaluation and management of natural forest in the region.
文摘Fluid flow and mixing of molten steel in a twin-slab-strand continuous casting tundish were investigated using a mixing model under non-isothermal conditions.This model led to a set of ordinary differential equations that were solved with a Runge-Kutta algorithm.Steady state water modeling was carried out under non-isothermal conditions.Experimental data obtained from the water model were used to calibrate the mixing model.Owing to the presence of a mixed convection in the non-isothermal conditions,a channelizing flow would be created in the fluid inside the tundish.A mixing model was designed that was capable of predicting RTD（residence time distribution）curves for different cases in non-isothermal conditions.The relationship between RTD parameters and the Tu（tundish Richardson number）was obtained for various cases under non-isothermal conditions.The results show that the RTD parameters were completely different under isothermal and non-isothermal conditions.The comparison of the RTD curves between the isothermal and non-isothermal conditions presents that the extent of mixing in the tundish in non-isothermal conditions is lower than the mixing extent in isothermal conditions.
基金supported by the Funding Project for Academic Human Resources Development in Institutions of Higher Learning Under the Jurisdiction of Beijing Municipality (0506011200702)National Natural Science Foundation of China+2 种基金Tian Yuan Special Foundation (10926059)Foundation of Zhejiang Educational Committee (Y200803920)Scientific Research Foundation of Hangzhou Dianzi University(KYS025608094)
文摘In this article, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. Two new classes of estimators obtained by shrinking the eigenvalues towards the origin and the arithmetic mean, respectively, are proposed. It is shown that these new estimators dominate the unbiased estimator under the squared error loss function. Finally, some simulation results to compare the performance of the proposed estimators with that of the unbiased estimator are reported. The simulation results indicate that these new shrinkage estimators provide a substantial improvement in risk under most situations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.82173620 to Yang Zhao and 82041024 to Feng Chen)partially supported by the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(Grant No.INV-006371 to Feng Chen)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.
文摘Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.
基金partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science,Innovation and Universities(grant number RTI2018-099315-A-I00)by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity(MINECO)(Grant number AGL2015–66001-C3)+1 种基金by the Cost action FP1203:European Non-Wood Forest Products Networkby the European project Star Tree–Multipurpose trees and non-wood forest products(Grant number 311919)a Serra-Húnter Fellowship provided by the Generalitat of Catalunya
文摘Background: Predictive models shed light on aboveground fungal yield dynamics and can assist decision-making in forestry by integrating this valuable non-wood forest product into forest management planning. However, the currently existing models are based on rather local data and, thus, there is a lack of predictive tools to monitor mushroom yields on larger scales.Results: This work presents the first empirical models for predicting the annual yields of ectomycorrhizal mushrooms and related ecosystem services in Pinus sylvestris and Pinus pinaster stands in northern Spain, using a long-term dataset suitable to account for the combined effect of meteorological conditions and stand structure.Models were fitted for the following groups of fungi separately: all ectomycorrhizal mushrooms, edible mushrooms and marketed mushrooms. Our results show the influence of the weather variables(mainly precipitation) on mushroom yields as well as the relevance of the basal area of the forest stand that follows a right-skewed unimodal curve with maximum predicted yields at stand basal areas of 30–40 m2·ha-1.Conclusion: These models are the first empirical models for predicting the annual yields of ectomycorrhizal mushrooms in Pinus sylvestris and Pinus pinaster stands in northern Spain, being of the highest resolution developed to date and enable predictions of mushrooms productivity by taking into account weather conditions and forests’ location, composition and structure.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60704002)
文摘The transient behaviors of traditional adaptive control may be very poor in general. A practically feasible approach to improve the transient performances is the adoption of adaptive switc- hing control. For a typical class of nonlinear systems disturbed by random noises, mixed multiple models consisting of adaptive model and fixed models were considered to design the switching con- trol law. Under certain assumptions, the nonlinear system with the switching control law was proved rigorously to be stable and optimal A simulation example was provided to compare the performance of the switching control and the traditional adaptive control.
文摘Residence time distribution (RTD) analysis of liquid phase was conducted in an internal airlift loop reactor (AL) and a bubble column (BC) with the tracer response technique. These data were simulated and compared through several flow mixing models. The modeling results of two-parameter model indicated that there were higher ratio of full mixing zones and lower ratio of bypass flow in AL than in BC. Then a completely mixed-plug flow parallel combined (four-parameter) model was established. Modeling results show that it is more precise and more obvious than two-parameter model.
文摘Several computer packages have been developed to accomplish improved programs for animal breeding and genetic selection. This paper described most of the currant software and provided suggestions for improved software. Khon Kaen University, Thailand, will provide free of charge the new software developed at Khon Kaen University by the author of this paper. The contact for requesting the software is listed: monchai@kku.ac.th.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No.2007CB815100the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.10775020 and 10935003
文摘The effects of atomic-level rnixing are systemically investigated in a multifluid interpenetration mix model ,and results are compared with the single-fluid model＇s simulations and experimental data. It is shown that increasing the model free parameter α, shock Mach number, and the initial density discontinuity makes the mix length and fraction of mixing particle increase, resulting in the lower shock temperatures compared with the results of single-fluid model without mixing. Recent high-compressibility direct-drive spherical implosions on OMEGA are simulated by the interpenetration mix modal. The calculations with atomic mixing between fuel and shell match quite well with the observations. Without considering any mixing, the calculated neutron yields and ion temperatures are overpredicted; while inclusion of the interpenetration mix model with the adjustable parameter α could fit the simulated neutron yields and ion temperatures well with experimental data.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12261108)the General Program of Basic Research Programs of Yunnan Province(202401AT070126)+1 种基金the Yunnan Key Laboratory of Modern Analytical Mathematics and Applications(202302AN360007)the Cross-integration Innovation team of modern Applied Mathematics and Life Sciences in Yunnan Province,China(202405AS350003).
文摘The mixed distribution model is often used to extract information from heteroge-neous data and perform modeling analysis.When the density function of mixed distribution is complicated or the variable dimension is high,it usually brings challenges to the parameter es-timation of the mixed distribution model.The application of MM algorithm can avoid complex expectation calculations,and can also solve the problem of high-dimensional optimization by decomposing the objective function.In this paper,MM algorithm is applied to the parameter estimation problem of mixed distribution model.The method of assembly and decomposition is used to construct the substitute function with separable parameters,which avoids the problems of complex expectation calculations and the inversion of high-dimensional matrices.
文摘This paper compares the stock return distribution models of mixture normal distribution, mixed diffusion-jump and GARCH models based on the data of Chinese stock market. The Schwarz criterion is also used. We find all these models can capture the features of stock returns partly. EGARCH model is the best fitting to daily return and stable during different period. When the weekly and monthly returns are tested, the differences of the models＇ fitness become unobvious and unstable.
文摘Today, Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) are fitted, mostly, by assuming that random effects and errors have Gaussian distributions, therefore using Maximum Likelihood (ML) or REML estimation. However, for many data sets, that double assumption is unlikely to hold, particularly for the random effects, a crucial component </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">in </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">which assessment of magnitude is key in such modeling. Alternative fitting methods not relying on that assumption (as ANOVA ones and Rao</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">’</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s MINQUE) apply, quite often, only to the very constrained class of variance components models. In this paper, a new computationally feasible estimation methodology is designed, first for the widely used class of 2-level (or longitudinal) LMMs with only assumption (beyond the usual basic ones) that residual errors are uncorrelated and homoscedastic, with no distributional assumption imposed on the random effects. A major asset of this new approach is that it yields nonnegative variance estimates and covariance matrices estimates which are symmetric and, at least, positive semi-definite. Furthermore, it is shown that when the LMM is, indeed, Gaussian, this new methodology differs from ML just through a slight variation in the denominator of the residual variance estimate. The new methodology actually generalizes to LMMs a well known nonparametric fitting procedure for standard Linear Models. Finally, the methodology is also extended to ANOVA LMMs, generalizing an old method by Henderson for ML estimation in such models under normality.
