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Comparison of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models in determining moisture recycling ratio
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作者 XIAO Yanqiong WANG Liwei +5 位作者 WANG Shengjie Kei YOSHIMURA SHI Yudong LI Xiaofei Athanassios A ARGIRIOU ZHANG Mingjun 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第6期739-751,共13页
Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,... Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds. 展开更多
关键词 moisture recycling stable water isotope linear mixing model Bayesian mixing model China
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IMPROVED ESTIMATES OF THE COVARIANCE MATRIX IN GENERAL LINEAR MIXED MODELS 被引量:1
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作者 叶仁道 王松桂 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2010年第4期1115-1124,共10页
In this article, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. Two new classes of estimators obtained by shrinking the eigenvalues towards the origin and the arithmetic ... In this article, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. Two new classes of estimators obtained by shrinking the eigenvalues towards the origin and the arithmetic mean, respectively, are proposed. It is shown that these new estimators dominate the unbiased estimator under the squared error loss function. Finally, some simulation results to compare the performance of the proposed estimators with that of the unbiased estimator are reported. The simulation results indicate that these new shrinkage estimators provide a substantial improvement in risk under most situations. 展开更多
关键词 Covariance matrix shrinkage estimator linear mixed model EIGENVALUE
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CLUSTERING POPULATIONS BY MIXED LINEAR MODELS
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作者 JUN ZHU BRUCE S. WEIR(Department of Agronomy,Zhejiang Agricultural University, Hangzhou 310029, Zhejiang, CHINA)(Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh,NC 27695-8203, USA) 《生物数学学报》 CSCD 北大核心 1994年第3期1-14,共14页
Two mixed linear models are proposed for grouping populations by a dissimilarity coefficent which has two parameters for squared difference of marginal mean and variance component of interaction.Cluster trees can be c... Two mixed linear models are proposed for grouping populations by a dissimilarity coefficent which has two parameters for squared difference of marginal mean and variance component of interaction.Cluster trees can be constructed by the mixed linear model approaches for experimental data with sampling errors within populations or with some missing values.Unweighted pair-group method ( UPGM ) is suggested as fusion method. Sampling variances of estimated dissimilarity coefficient can be obtained by the jackknife procedure.A one-tail t-test is applicable for detecting significance of dissimilarity of populaions within specific group.Unbiasedness and efficiency for estimation of dissimilarity coefficients are proved by Monte Carolo simulations.Worked example from cotton yield data is given for demonstration of the use of these cluster methods. 展开更多
关键词 CLUSTER method mixed linear models MONTE carlo simulation Genotypexenvironment interaction.
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Orthogonality Based Empirical Likelihood Inferences for Linear Mixed Effects Models
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作者 Changqing LIU Peixin ZHAO Yiping YANG 《Journal of Mathematical Research with Applications》 CSCD 2020年第2期209-220,共12页
Based on empirical likelihood method and QR decomposition technique, an orthogonality empirical likelihood based estimation method for the fixed effects in linear mixed effects models is proposed. Under some regularit... Based on empirical likelihood method and QR decomposition technique, an orthogonality empirical likelihood based estimation method for the fixed effects in linear mixed effects models is proposed. Under some regularity conditions, the proposed empirical log-likelihood ratio is proved to be asymptotically chi-squared, and then the confidence intervals for the fixed effects are constructed. The proposed estimation procedure is not affected by the random effects,and then the resulting estimator is more effective. Some simulations and a real data application are conducted for further illustrating the performances of the proposed method. 展开更多
关键词 linear mixed EFFECTS model ORTHOGONALITY empirical LIKELIHOOD QR decomposition random EFFECTS
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ROBUST ESTIMATION IN PARTIAL LINEAR MIXED MODEL FOR LONGITUDINAL DATA
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作者 秦国友 朱仲义 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2008年第2期333-347,共15页
In this article, robust generalized estimating equation for the analysis of partial linear mixed model for longitudinal data is used. The authors approximate the nonparametric function by a regression spline. Under so... In this article, robust generalized estimating equation for the analysis of partial linear mixed model for longitudinal data is used. The authors approximate the nonparametric function by a regression spline. Under some regular conditions, the asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. To avoid the computation of high-dimensional integral, a robust Monte Carlo Newton-Raphson algorithm is used. Some simulations are carried out to study the performance of the proposed robust estimators. In addition, the authors also study the robustness and the efficiency of the proposed estimators by simulation. Finally, two real longitudinal data sets are analyzed. 展开更多
关键词 Generalized estimating equation longitudinal data metropolis algorithm mixed effect partial linear model ROBUSTNESS
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Responses of River Runoff to Climate Change Based on Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model in Chaohe River Basin of Hebei Province, China
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作者 JIANG Yan LIU Changming +2 位作者 ZHENG Hongxing LI Xuyong WU Xianing 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2010年第2期152-158,共7页
Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature ... Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual river runoff process. The model was calibrated and verified by using BP neural network with observed meteorological and runoff data from Daiying Hydrological Station in the Chaohe River of Hebei Province in 1956–2000. Compared with auto-regression model,linear multi-regression model and linear mixed regression model,NMR can improve forecasting precision remarkably. Therefore,the simulation of climate change scenarios was carried out by NMR. The results show that the nonlinear mixed regression model can simulate annual river runoff well. 展开更多
关键词 river runoff runoff forecast nonlinear mixed regression model linear multi-regression model linear mixed regression model BP neural network
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Two New Relative Efficiencies of the Weighted Mixed Estimator with Respect to the Ordinary Least Squares Estimator in Linear Regression Models
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作者 Min LI Jibo WU 《Journal of Mathematical Research with Applications》 CSCD 2016年第1期109-116,共8页
In this paper, we present two relative efficiency of the weighted mixed estimator in respect of least squares estimator. We also derive the lower and upper bounds of those relative efficiencies.
关键词 ordinary least squares estimator weighted mixed estimator relative efficiency linear regression models
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Statistical Inference in Generalized Linear Mixed Models by Joint Modelling Mean and Covariance of Non-Normal Random Effects
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作者 Yin Chen Yu Fei Jianxin Pan 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2015年第6期568-584,共17页
Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are typically constructed by incorporating random effects into the linear predictor. The random effects are usually assumed to be normally distributed with mean zero and varianc... Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are typically constructed by incorporating random effects into the linear predictor. The random effects are usually assumed to be normally distributed with mean zero and variance-covariance identity matrix. In this paper, we propose to release random effects to non-normal distributions and discuss how to model the mean and covariance structures in GLMMs simultaneously. Parameter estimation is solved by using Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method through iterative Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithm very well in terms of accuracy and stabilization, which is demonstrated by real binary salamander mating data analysis and simulation studies. 展开更多
关键词 Generalized linear mixed models MULTIVARIATE t DISTRIBUTION MULTIVARIATE Mixture NORMAL DISTRIBUTION Quasi-Monte Carlo NEWTON-RAPHSON Joint modelling of Mean and COVARIANCE
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Impacts of the Minimum Purchase Price Policy for Grain on the Planting Area of Rice in Hubei Province Based on a Mixed Linear Model
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作者 Xiaoyin WANG Jun WANG 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2016年第8期12-17,共6页
Impacts of the minimum purchase price policy for grain on the planting area of rice in Hubei Province were analyzed based on a mixed linear model.After the indicator system containing the minimum purchase price policy... Impacts of the minimum purchase price policy for grain on the planting area of rice in Hubei Province were analyzed based on a mixed linear model.After the indicator system containing the minimum purchase price policy and other factors influencing the planting area of rice was constructed,principal component analysis of the system was conducted,and then a mixed linear model where the planting area of rice was as the dependent variable was established.The results show that after the exclusion of the interference from other factors,the minimum purchase price policy for grain had a positive impact on the planting area of rice in Hubei Province.That is,the minimum purchase price policy significantly stimulated the growth of rice planting area in Hubei Province. 展开更多
关键词 The minimum purchase price Rice in Hubei Province Planting area Principal component analysis mixed linear model
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Nonparametric Estimation in Linear Mixed Models with Uncorrelated Homoscedastic Errors
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作者 Eugène-Patrice Ndong Nguéma Betrand Fesuh Nono Henri Gwét 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2021年第4期558-605,共48页
Today, Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) are fitted, mostly, by assuming that random effects and errors have Gaussian distributions, therefore using Maximum Likelihood (ML) or REML estimation. However, for many data sets, th... Today, Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) are fitted, mostly, by assuming that random effects and errors have Gaussian distributions, therefore using Maximum Likelihood (ML) or REML estimation. However, for many data sets, that double assumption is unlikely to hold, particularly for the random effects, a crucial component </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">in </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">which assessment of magnitude is key in such modeling. Alternative fitting methods not relying on that assumption (as ANOVA ones and Rao</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">’</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s MINQUE) apply, quite often, only to the very constrained class of variance components models. In this paper, a new computationally feasible estimation methodology is designed, first for the widely used class of 2-level (or longitudinal) LMMs with only assumption (beyond the usual basic ones) that residual errors are uncorrelated and homoscedastic, with no distributional assumption imposed on the random effects. A major asset of this new approach is that it yields nonnegative variance estimates and covariance matrices estimates which are symmetric and, at least, positive semi-definite. Furthermore, it is shown that when the LMM is, indeed, Gaussian, this new methodology differs from ML just through a slight variation in the denominator of the residual variance estimate. The new methodology actually generalizes to LMMs a well known nonparametric fitting procedure for standard Linear Models. Finally, the methodology is also extended to ANOVA LMMs, generalizing an old method by Henderson for ML estimation in such models under normality. 展开更多
关键词 Clustered Data linear mixed model Fixed Effect Uncorrelated Homoscedastic Error Random Effects Predictor
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Linear Mixed Model Analysis of Worldwide Longitudinal Infant Mortality Rate Data and Association with Human Development Index
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作者 Serpil Aktas 《Journal of Mathematics and System Science》 2013年第4期173-179,共7页
A linear mixed model is used to determine the explaining infant mortality rate data of United Nations countries. The HDI (human development index) has a significant negative linear relationship with infant mortality... A linear mixed model is used to determine the explaining infant mortality rate data of United Nations countries. The HDI (human development index) has a significant negative linear relationship with infant mortality rate. United Nations data shows that the infant mortality rate has a descending trend over the period 1990-2010. This study aims to assess the value of the HDI as a predictor of infant mortality rate. Findings in the paper suggest that significant percentage reductions in infant mortality might be possible for countries for controlling the HDI. 展开更多
关键词 Infant mortality rate human development index linear mixed models
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A study of the mixed layer of the South China Sea based on the multiple linear regression 被引量:8
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作者 DUAN Rui YANG Kunde +1 位作者 MA Yuanliang HU Tao 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第6期19-31,共13页
Multiple linear regression (MLR) method was applied to quantify the effects of the net heat flux (NHF), the net freshwater flux (NFF) and the wind stress on the mixed layer depth (MLD) of the South China Sea ... Multiple linear regression (MLR) method was applied to quantify the effects of the net heat flux (NHF), the net freshwater flux (NFF) and the wind stress on the mixed layer depth (MLD) of the South China Sea (SCS) based on the simple ocean data assimilation (SODA) dataset. The spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD, the buoyancy flux (combining the NHF and the NFF) and the wind stress of the SCS were presented. Then using an oceanic vertical mixing model, the MLD after a certain time under the same initial conditions but various pairs of boundary conditions (the three factors) was simulated. Applying the MLR method to the results, regression equations which modeling the relationship between the simulated MLD and the three factors were calculated. The equations indicate that when the NHF was negative, it was the primary driver of the mixed layer deepening; and when the NHF was positive, the wind stress played a more important role than that of the NHF while the NFF had the least effect. When the NHF was positive, the relative quantitative effects of the wind stress, the NHF, and the NFF were about i0, 6 and 2. The above conclusions were applied to explaining the spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD in the SCS and thus proved to be valid. 展开更多
关键词 mixed layer multiple linear regression South China Sea vertical mixing model
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Use of Linear Spectral Mixture Model to Estimate Rice Planted Area Based on MODIS Data 被引量:2
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作者 WANG Lei Satoshi UCHID 《Rice science》 SCIE 2008年第2期131-136,共6页
MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) is a key instrument aboard the Terra (EOS AM) and Aqua (EOS PM) satellites. Linear spectral mixture models are applied to MOIDS data for the sub-pixel classi... MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) is a key instrument aboard the Terra (EOS AM) and Aqua (EOS PM) satellites. Linear spectral mixture models are applied to MOIDS data for the sub-pixel classification of land covers. Shaoxing county of Zhejiang Province in China was chosen to be the study site and early rice was selected as the study crop. The derived proportions of land covers from MODIS pixel using linear spectral mixture models were compared with unsupervised classification derived from TM data acquired on the same day, which implies that MODIS data could be used as satellite data source for rice cultivation area estimation, possibly rice growth monitoring and yield forecasting on the regional scale. 展开更多
关键词 RICE planted area Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Thematic Mapper data mixed pixel linear spectral mixture model
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COMPLETE CONVERGENCE OF ERROR VARIANCE ESITIMATES UNDER Ф-MIXING ERROR IN LINEAR MODELS
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作者 薛留根 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 1994年第4期417-425,共9页
In this paper,we consider the estimates d of error variance d2=Var(ei) in the linear models Yi=x' iβ+ei(i= 1, 2, ... ). We study the complete convergence of dm2-o2 when the error {ei }is a sequence of identically... In this paper,we consider the estimates d of error variance d2=Var(ei) in the linear models Yi=x' iβ+ei(i= 1, 2, ... ). We study the complete convergence of dm2-o2 when the error {ei }is a sequence of identically distributed p-mixing variables. And we also obtain the better convergence rates when {ei} is not identically distribution 展开更多
关键词 ERROR linear COMPLETE ESITIMATES CONVERGENCE MIXING modelS OF UNDER VARIANCE
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Marginal Conceptual Predictive Statistic for Mixed Model Selection
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作者 Cheng Wenren Junfeng Shang Juming Pan 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2016年第2期239-253,共15页
We focus on the development of model selection criteria in linear mixed models. In particular, we propose the model selection criteria following the Mallows’ Conceptual Predictive Statistic (Cp) [1] [2] in linear mix... We focus on the development of model selection criteria in linear mixed models. In particular, we propose the model selection criteria following the Mallows’ Conceptual Predictive Statistic (Cp) [1] [2] in linear mixed models. When correlation exists between the observations in data, the normal Gauss discrepancy in univariate case is not appropriate to measure the distance between the true model and a candidate model. Instead, we define a marginal Gauss discrepancy which takes the correlation into account in the mixed models. The model selection criterion, marginal Cp, called MCp, serves as an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the expected marginal Gauss discrepancy. An improvement of MCp, called IMCp, is then derived and proved to be a more accurate estimator of the expected marginal Gauss discrepancy than MCp. The performance of the proposed criteria is investigated in a simulation study. The simulation results show that in small samples, the proposed criteria outperform the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) [3] [4] and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) [5] in selecting the correct model;in large samples, their performance is competitive. Further, the proposed criteria perform significantly better for highly correlated response data than for weakly correlated data. 展开更多
关键词 mixed model Selection Marginal Cp Improved Marginal Cp Marginal Gauss Discrepancy linear mixed model
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Efficient Shrinkage Estimation about the Partially Linear Varying Coefficient Model with Random Effect for Longitudinal Data
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作者 Wanbin Li 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2016年第5期862-872,共12页
In this paper, an efficient shrinkage estimation procedure for the partially linear varying coefficient model (PLVC) with random effect is considered. By selecting the significant variable and estimating the nonzero c... In this paper, an efficient shrinkage estimation procedure for the partially linear varying coefficient model (PLVC) with random effect is considered. By selecting the significant variable and estimating the nonzero coefficient, the model structure specification is accomplished by introducing a novel penalized estimating equation. Under some mild conditions, the asymptotic properties for the proposed model selection and estimation results, such as the sparsity and oracle property, are established. Some numerical simulation studies and a real data analysis are presented to examine the finite sample performance of the procedure. 展开更多
关键词 Partially linear Varying Coefficient model mixed Effect Penalized Estimating Equation
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Adaptive Random Effects/Coefficients Modeling
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作者 George J. Knafl 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2024年第2期179-206,共28页
Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using general... Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using generalized linear models in fixed effects/coefficients. Correlations are modeled using random effects/coefficients. Nonlinearity is addressed using power transforms of primary (untransformed) predictors. Parameter estimation is based on extended linear mixed modeling generalizing both generalized estimating equations and linear mixed modeling. Models are evaluated using likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores and are generated adaptively using a heuristic search controlled by LCV scores. Cases covered include linear, Poisson, logistic, exponential, and discrete regression of correlated continuous, count/rate, dichotomous, positive continuous, and discrete numeric outcomes treated as normally, Poisson, Bernoulli, exponentially, and discrete numerically distributed, respectively. Example analyses are also generated for these five cases to compare adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes to previously developed adaptive modeling based on directly specified covariance structures. Adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling substantially outperforms direct covariance modeling in the linear, exponential, and discrete regression example analyses. It generates equivalent results in the logistic regression example analyses and it is substantially outperformed in the Poisson regression case. Random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes can provide substantial improvements in model selection compared to directly specified covariance modeling. However, directly specified covariance modeling can generate competitive or substantially better results in some cases while usually requiring less computation time. 展开更多
关键词 Adaptive Regression Correlated Outcomes Extended linear mixed modeling Fractional Polynomials Likelihood Cross-Validation Random Effects/Coefficients
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抽水蓄能电站与下游水电站协同调峰调度优化 被引量:1
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作者 王辉 王政伟 +3 位作者 陈衡 范蓝心 董长青 雷兢 《湖南电力》 2025年第3期27-34,共8页
水电站运行过程中枯水季水位低、水量不足,难以完成发电任务,丰水季水位高、水量过度、弃水量过多,导致发电不稳定。针对此问题,建立水电站和抽水蓄能电站联合运行的水电互补发电系统模型,采用阶段线性拟合技术将原模型转化为混合整数... 水电站运行过程中枯水季水位低、水量不足,难以完成发电任务,丰水季水位高、水量过度、弃水量过多,导致发电不稳定。针对此问题,建立水电站和抽水蓄能电站联合运行的水电互补发电系统模型,采用阶段线性拟合技术将原模型转化为混合整数线性规划模型。利用粒子群优化算法,计算上游具有独立水库、可蓄水的抽水蓄能电站与下游水电站联合运行的调峰填谷机制,得到运行周期内的优化调度方案;该方案可显著提升水电站发电稳定性,解决水电站弃水量过多、发电不稳定、发电品质较低的问题。 展开更多
关键词 抽水蓄能电站 水电互补发电系统 混合整数线性规划模型 粒子群算法 优化调度
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PM_(2.5)及其组分暴露对儿童注意力缺陷多动障碍的影响
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作者 黄晓华 刘禄生 +4 位作者 张琼 曾庆国 董光辉 曾晓雯 陈健 《环境与职业医学》 北大核心 2025年第9期1038-1044,共7页
[背景]尽管越来越多的证据表明长期暴露于大气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))与儿童注意缺陷多动障碍(ADHD)之间存在关联,但结果尚不完全一致,且其组分影响尚不清楚。[目的]探讨PM_(2.5)及其组分暴露与儿童ADHD之间的关联,并明确其关键组分和敏感... [背景]尽管越来越多的证据表明长期暴露于大气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))与儿童注意缺陷多动障碍(ADHD)之间存在关联,但结果尚不完全一致,且其组分影响尚不清楚。[目的]探讨PM_(2.5)及其组分暴露与儿童ADHD之间的关联,并明确其关键组分和敏感人群。[方法]本研究于2016年5月—2018年5月在广东省广州、茂名两个城市开展了一项大型横断面调查,纳入52238名6~18岁儿童。根据《精神障碍诊断与统计手册(第5版)》(DSM-V)评估儿童和青少年的ADHD状况。根据学生家庭居住地址来匹配PM_(2.5)及其组分黑碳(BC)、有机物质(OM)、硫酸根离子(SO_(4)^(2-))、硝酸根离子(NO_(3)^(-))、铵根离子(NH_(4)^(+)),调查前4年(2013—2016)的年均浓度。采用广义线性混合模型,将城市作为随机项,将PM_(2.5)及其组分及相应混杂因素作为固定项,探讨PM_(2.5)及其组分暴露与ADHD之间的关联,并对年龄、性别、体育锻炼水平等个体特征进行亚组分析。[结果]本研究儿童ADHD的患病率为4.1%,患病率男孩高于女孩,分别为5.1%和3.0%。研究期间PM_(2.5)、SO_(4)^(2-)、NO_(3)^(-)、NH_(4)^(+)、OM和BC的中位数质量浓度(后简称为浓度)分别为42.35、8.91、5.70、4.32、11.27和2.58μg·m^(-3)。PM_(2.5)及其组分SO_(4)^(2-)、OM和BC与ADHD呈正向相关,其浓度每增加一个四分位数间距(IQR),ADHD的患病风险分别为1.37(95%CI:1.25~1.50)、1.36(95%CI:1.24~1.49)、1.37(95%CI:1.25~1.50)和1.37(95%CI:1.24~1.50),在ADHD-I和ADHD-C亚型中也观察到类似的结果。亚组分析结果显示,与大于12岁的儿童相比(OR=1.20,95%CI:1.06~1.36),小于等于12岁的儿童PM_(2.5)长期暴露后ADHD的患病风险升高(OR=1.52,95%CI:1.34~1.73)。在额外调整早产和低出生体重之后,结果仍比较稳定。[结论]PM_(2.5)及其组分与儿童ADHD存在正向关联,且此关联存在年龄差异,年龄较小的儿童PM_(2.5)长期暴露后ADHD的患病风险升高。 展开更多
关键词 细颗粒物 组分 注意力缺陷多动障碍 儿童 广义线性混合模型
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黄土高原森林小流域径流氮磷输出负荷及水源解析
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作者 徐国策 张腾飞 +3 位作者 蒲艺凡 李婧 谷丰佑 王斌 《地球科学与环境学报》 北大核心 2025年第4期794-805,共12页
黄土高原植被恢复改变了流域的生态-水文过程,对次降雨事件中的氮磷输出负荷有着极大影响。以陕西黄陵地区南峪口森林小流域为研究对象,基于3场降雨事件(中雨、大雨和暴雨)下不同水体的水质和氢稳定同位素监测数据,使用端元混合模型和... 黄土高原植被恢复改变了流域的生态-水文过程,对次降雨事件中的氮磷输出负荷有着极大影响。以陕西黄陵地区南峪口森林小流域为研究对象,基于3场降雨事件(中雨、大雨和暴雨)下不同水体的水质和氢稳定同位素监测数据,使用端元混合模型和多元线性回归模型等分析了不同降雨事件下流域氮磷输出负荷,并确定了不同径流来源对氮磷流失的影响。结果表明:中雨、大雨和暴雨事件下,总氮(TN)输出量分别为12.90、110.95和208.01 kg,总磷(TP)输出量分别为0.43、2.15和6.35 kg;中雨事件下的事件前水(流域前期储水)对河道总流量的贡献率和贡献量分别为90.05%和7688 m^(3),大雨事件下分别为64.80%和20929 m^(3),暴雨事件下分别为69.48%和49794 m^(3);中雨事件下的事件水(雨水)对河道总流量的贡献率和贡献量分别为9.95%和849 m^(3),大雨事件下分别为35.20%和11347 m^(3),暴雨事件下分别为30.52%和21871 m^(3);构建的多元线性回归模型判定系数均在0.8以上,模拟精度良好;次降雨事件下,径流来源可以表征淋溶作用和冲刷作用对氮磷流失的影响。 展开更多
关键词 氮磷流失 径流组分 总氮 总磷 多元线性回归模型 水源解析 端元混合模型 黄土高原
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