China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching targe...China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China＇s resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China＇s potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China＇s total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China＇s total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.展开更多
Carbon mitigation technologies lead to air quality improvement and health co-benefits,while the practical effects of the technologies are dependent on the energy composition,technological advancements,and economic dev...Carbon mitigation technologies lead to air quality improvement and health co-benefits,while the practical effects of the technologies are dependent on the energy composition,technological advancements,and economic development.In China,mitigation technologies such as end-of-pipe treatment,renewable energy adoption,carbon capture and storage(CCS),and sector electrification demonstrate significant promise in meeting carbon reduction targets.However,the optimization of these technologies for maximum co-benefits remains unclear.Here,we employ an integrated assessment model(AIM/enduse,CAM-chem,IMED|HEL)to analyze air quality shifts and their corresponding health and economic impacts at the provincial level in China within the two-degree target.Our findings reveal that a combination of end-of-pipe technology,renewable energy utilization,and electrification yields the most promising results in air quality improvement,with a reduction of fine particulate matter(PM2.5)by−34.6μg m^(−3) and ozone by−18.3 ppb in 2050 compared to the reference scenario.In contrast,CCS technology demonstrates comparatively modest improvements in air quality(−9.4μg m^(−3) for PM_(2.5) and−2.4 ppb for ozone)and cumulative premature deaths reduction(−3.4 million from 2010 to 2050)compared to the end-of-pipe scenario.Notably,densely populated regions such as Henan,Hebei,Shandong,and Sichuan experience the most health and economic benefits.This study aims to project effective future mitigation technologies and climate policies on air quality improvement and carbon mitigation.Furthermore,it seeks to delineate detailed provincial-level air pollution control strategies,offering valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders in pursuing sustainable and health-conscious environmental management.展开更多
基金supported by Major Program of Humanities and Social Science Base,Ministry of Education(No.10JJD630011)
文摘China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China＇s resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China＇s potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China＇s total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China＇s total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2020YFA0607804)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42375172 and 71903010)。
文摘Carbon mitigation technologies lead to air quality improvement and health co-benefits,while the practical effects of the technologies are dependent on the energy composition,technological advancements,and economic development.In China,mitigation technologies such as end-of-pipe treatment,renewable energy adoption,carbon capture and storage(CCS),and sector electrification demonstrate significant promise in meeting carbon reduction targets.However,the optimization of these technologies for maximum co-benefits remains unclear.Here,we employ an integrated assessment model(AIM/enduse,CAM-chem,IMED|HEL)to analyze air quality shifts and their corresponding health and economic impacts at the provincial level in China within the two-degree target.Our findings reveal that a combination of end-of-pipe technology,renewable energy utilization,and electrification yields the most promising results in air quality improvement,with a reduction of fine particulate matter(PM2.5)by−34.6μg m^(−3) and ozone by−18.3 ppb in 2050 compared to the reference scenario.In contrast,CCS technology demonstrates comparatively modest improvements in air quality(−9.4μg m^(−3) for PM_(2.5) and−2.4 ppb for ozone)and cumulative premature deaths reduction(−3.4 million from 2010 to 2050)compared to the end-of-pipe scenario.Notably,densely populated regions such as Henan,Hebei,Shandong,and Sichuan experience the most health and economic benefits.This study aims to project effective future mitigation technologies and climate policies on air quality improvement and carbon mitigation.Furthermore,it seeks to delineate detailed provincial-level air pollution control strategies,offering valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders in pursuing sustainable and health-conscious environmental management.
