This paper tries to identify the characters that might affect interprovincial migrants' decisions and examine how and why the influence of these characters changed over time individually and synthetically in China...This paper tries to identify the characters that might affect interprovincial migrants' decisions and examine how and why the influence of these characters changed over time individually and synthetically in China during 1985-2005.We have investigated six types of factors,namely,distance,population density,income,employment structure,house price,and migration stock.In addition,we apply the identified factors with a multiple stepwise regression model to a longitudinal dataset,which consists of interprovincial migration flows over the last two decades in China.It is found that different factors have disparate impacts on migration in China,and they can be decomposed into push force in origin area and pull force in destination area.Factors shaping China's interprovincial migration have shifted from traditional factors such as distance to economic factors such as income and employment structure.This paper suggests that more attention should be paid to obtain detailed migration data with spatial ihfonnation and develop applicable models for migration processes.Our analysis provides references for development planners and policymakers to develop sound population policies to achieve regional sustainable development in China.展开更多
To effectively track the impact of population migration between regions on the spread of infectious diseases, this paper proposes a visualized analysis and prediction system of infectious diseases based on the improve...To effectively track the impact of population migration between regions on the spread of infectious diseases, this paper proposes a visualized analysis and prediction system of infectious diseases based on the improved SIR model. The research contents including: using the multi graph link interaction mode, visualizing the space-time distribution and development trend of infectious diseases;The LightGBM model is used to track the changes of infection rate and recovery rate, and the Mi/Mo SIR model is constructed according to the initial data of different populations;Mi/Mo SIR model is used to predict infectious diseases in combination with visual panel, providing users with tools to analyze and explain the space-time characteristics and potential laws of infectious diseases. The study found that the closure of cities and the restriction of personnel mobility were necessary and effective, and the system provided an important basis for the prediction and early warning of infectious diseases.展开更多
基金the auspices of Key Deployment Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number KZZD-EW-06-04]the Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41301121]National Key Technology R&D Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology[grant number 2012BAJ15B02]
文摘This paper tries to identify the characters that might affect interprovincial migrants' decisions and examine how and why the influence of these characters changed over time individually and synthetically in China during 1985-2005.We have investigated six types of factors,namely,distance,population density,income,employment structure,house price,and migration stock.In addition,we apply the identified factors with a multiple stepwise regression model to a longitudinal dataset,which consists of interprovincial migration flows over the last two decades in China.It is found that different factors have disparate impacts on migration in China,and they can be decomposed into push force in origin area and pull force in destination area.Factors shaping China's interprovincial migration have shifted from traditional factors such as distance to economic factors such as income and employment structure.This paper suggests that more attention should be paid to obtain detailed migration data with spatial ihfonnation and develop applicable models for migration processes.Our analysis provides references for development planners and policymakers to develop sound population policies to achieve regional sustainable development in China.
文摘To effectively track the impact of population migration between regions on the spread of infectious diseases, this paper proposes a visualized analysis and prediction system of infectious diseases based on the improved SIR model. The research contents including: using the multi graph link interaction mode, visualizing the space-time distribution and development trend of infectious diseases;The LightGBM model is used to track the changes of infection rate and recovery rate, and the Mi/Mo SIR model is constructed according to the initial data of different populations;Mi/Mo SIR model is used to predict infectious diseases in combination with visual panel, providing users with tools to analyze and explain the space-time characteristics and potential laws of infectious diseases. The study found that the closure of cities and the restriction of personnel mobility were necessary and effective, and the system provided an important basis for the prediction and early warning of infectious diseases.
