In this paper, a typical mei-yu front process with heavy rainfall from June 12 to 15 in 1998 is analyzed. The results show that the mei-yu front is a front system which consists of an iso-theta(e) dense area with stro...In this paper, a typical mei-yu front process with heavy rainfall from June 12 to 15 in 1998 is analyzed. The results show that the mei-yu front is a front system which consists of an iso-theta(e) dense area with strong horizontal gradient, a deep-convective cloud tower band, a passageway transporting warm and moist air flow from the summer monsoon surge in the mid and low levels to the south of the mei-yu front, and a migrating synoptic scale trough to the north of the mei-yu front, which transports cold and dry air southward in the mid and upper levels. The maintenance of the mei-yu front is realized by: (1) is a positive feedback between the moist physical process enhancing frontogenesis and the development of the strong convective system in front of the mei-yu front; (2) the sustaining system to the north of the mei-yu front which is a migrating synoptic scale trough transporting cold and dry air to the mei-yu front and positive vorticity to the mesoscale system in front of the mei-yu front.展开更多
The conventional and intensive observational data of the China Heavy Rain Experiment and Study (CHeRES) are used to specially analyze the heavy rainfall process in the mei-yu front that occurred during 20-21 June 2002...The conventional and intensive observational data of the China Heavy Rain Experiment and Study (CHeRES) are used to specially analyze the heavy rainfall process in the mei-yu front that occurred during 20-21 June 2002, focusing on the meso-β system. A mesoscale convective system (MCS) formed in the warm-moist southwesterly to the south of the shear line over the Dabie Mountains and over the gorge between the Dabie and Jiuhua Mountains. The mei-yu front and shear line provide a favorable synoptic condition for the development of convection. The GPS observation indicates that the precipitable water increased obviously about 2-3 h earlier than the occurrence of rainfall and decreased after that. The abundant moisture transportation by southwesterly wind was favorable to the maintenance of convective instability and the accumulation of convective available potential energy (CAPE). Radar detection reveals that meso-β and -γ systems were very active in the MaCS. Several convection lines developed during the evolution of the MaCS, and these are associated with surface convergence lines. The boundary outflow of the convection line may have triggered another convection line. The convection line moved with the mesoscale surface convergence line, but the convective cells embedded in the convergence line propagated along the line. On the basis of the analyses of the intensive observation data, a multi-scale conceptual model of heavy rainfall in the mei-yu front for this particular case is proposed.展开更多
A mei-yu front process in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River on 23 June 1999 was simulated by using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR （PSU/NCAR） Mesoscale Model （MM5） with FDDA （Four Dim...A mei-yu front process in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River on 23 June 1999 was simulated by using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR （PSU/NCAR） Mesoscale Model （MM5） with FDDA （Four Dimension Data Assimilation）. The analysis shows that seven weak small mesoscale vortexes of tens of kilometers, correspondent to surface low trough or mesoscale centers, in the planetary boundary layer （PBL） in the mei-yu front were heavily responsible for the heavy rainfall. Sometimes, several weak small-scale vortexes in the PBL could form a vortex group, some of which would weaken locally, and some would develop to be a meso-α-scale low vortex through combination. The initial dynamical triggering mechanism was related to two strong currents： one was the northeast flow in the PBL at the rear of the mei-yu front, the vortexes occurred exactly at the side of the northeast flow; and the other was the strong southwest low-level jet （LLJ） in front of the Mei-yu front, which moved to the upper of the vortexes. Consequently, there were notable horizontal and vertical wind shears to form positive vorticity in the center of the southwest LLJ. The development of mesoscale convergence in the PBL and divergence above, as well as the vertical positive vorticity column, were related to the small wind column above the nose-shaped velocity contours of the northeast flow embedding southwestward in the PBL, which intensified the horizontal wind shear and the positive vorticity column above the vortexes, baroclinicity and instability.展开更多
An adjoint sensitivity analysis of one mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front is presented in this paper. The sensitivity gradient of simulation error dry energy with respect to initial analysis is calculated. And after ve...An adjoint sensitivity analysis of one mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front is presented in this paper. The sensitivity gradient of simulation error dry energy with respect to initial analysis is calculated. And after verifying the ability of a tangent linear and adjoint model to describe small perturbations in the nonlinear model, the sensitivity gradient analysis is implemented in detail. The sensitivity gradient with respect to different physical fields are not uniform in intensity, simulation error is most sensitive to the vapor mixed ratio. The localization and consistency are obvious characters of horizontal distribution of the sensitivity gradient, which is useful for the practical implementation of adaptive observation. The sensitivity region tilts to the northwest with height increasing; the singular vector calculation proves that this tilting characterizes a quick-growing structure, which denotes that using the leading singular vectors to decide the adaptive observation region is proper. When connected with simulation of a mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front, the sensitivity gradient has the following physical characters： the obvious sensitive region is mesoscale, concentrated in the middle-upper troposphere, and locates around the key system; and the sensitivity gradient of different physical fields correlates dynamically.展开更多
Parallel back-building convective lines are often observed extending to the southwest of some mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)embedded in the mei-yu front in China.The convective lines with echo training behavior ca...Parallel back-building convective lines are often observed extending to the southwest of some mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)embedded in the mei-yu front in China.The convective lines with echo training behavior can quickly develop into a stronger convective group of echoes,resulting in locally heavy rainfall within the mei-yu front rainband.The initiation mechanism of the back-building convective lines is still unclear and is studied based on high-resolution numerical simulation of a case that occurred during 27−28 June 2013.In the present case,the new convection along the convective lines was found to be forced by nonuniform interaction between the cold outflow associated with the mei-yu front MCSs and the warm southerly airflow on the south side of the mei-yu front,which both are modified by local terrain.The mei-yu front MCSs evolved from the western to the eastern side of a basin surrounded by several mesoscale mountains and induced cold outflow centered over the eastern part of the basin.The strong southwest airflow ahead of the mei-yu front passed the Nanling Mountains and impacted the cold outflow within the basin.The nonuniform interaction led to the first stage of parallel convective line formation,in which the low mountains along the boundary of the two airflows enhanced the heterogeneity of their interaction.Subsequently,the convective group quickly developed from the first stage convective lines resulted in apparent precipitation cooling that enhanced the cold outflow and made the cold outflow a sharp southward windshift.The enhanced cold outflow pushed the warm southerly airflow southward and impacted the mountains on the southeast side of the basin,where the roughly parallel mountain valleys or gaps play a controlling role in a second stage formation of parallel convective lines.展开更多
The numerical forecasts of mei-yu front rainstorms in China has been an important issue. The intensity and pattern of the frontal rainfall are greatly influenced by the initial fields of the numerical model. The 4-dim...The numerical forecasts of mei-yu front rainstorms in China has been an important issue. The intensity and pattern of the frontal rainfall are greatly influenced by the initial fields of the numerical model. The 4-dimensional variational data assimilation technology (4DVAR) can effectively assimilate all kinds of observed data, including rainfall data at the observed stations, so that the initial fields and the precipitation forecast can both be greatly improved. The non-hydrostatic meso-scale model (MM5) and its adjoint model are used to study the development of the mei-yu front rainstorm from 1200 UTC 25 June to 0600 UTC 26 June 1999. By numerical simulation experiments and assimilation experiments, the T106 data and the observed 6-hour rainfall data are assimilated. The influences of many factors, such as the choice of the assimilated variables and the weighting coefficient, on the precipitation forecast results are studied. The numerical results show that 4DVAR is valuable and important to mei-yu front rainfall prediction.展开更多
Based on normalized six-hourly black body temperature （TBB） data of three geostationary meteorological satellites,the leading modes of the mei-yu cloud system between 1998 and 2008 were extracted by the Empirical Or...Based on normalized six-hourly black body temperature （TBB） data of three geostationary meteorological satellites,the leading modes of the mei-yu cloud system between 1998 and 2008 were extracted by the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） method,and the transition processes from the first typical leading mode to other leading modes were discussed and compared.The analysis shows that,when the southern mode （EOF1） transforms to the northeastern mode （EOF3）,in the mid-troposphere,a low trough develops and moves southeastward over central and eastern China.The circulation pattern is characterized by two highs and one low in the lower troposphere.A belt of low pressure is sandwiched between the weak high over central and western China and the strong western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH）.Cold air moves southward along the northerly flow behind the low,and meets the warm and moist air between the WNPSH and the forepart of the low trough,which leads to continuous convection.At the same time,the central extent of the WNPSH increases while its ridge extends westward.In addition,transitions from the southern mode to the dual centers mode and the tropical-low-influenced mode were found to be atypical,and so no common points could be concluded.Furthermore,the choice of threshold value can affect the number of samples discussed.展开更多
In China's Mainland, the summer monsoon rainy band is referred to as the mei-yu precipitation front, which extends northward from South China to the Yangtze River, Huaihe River, and Yellow River, depending on the ...In China's Mainland, the summer monsoon rainy band is referred to as the mei-yu precipitation front, which extends northward from South China to the Yangtze River, Huaihe River, and Yellow River, depending on the season. This paper describes the structure of the mei-yu front associated with a persistent heavy rainfall event that occurred in the summer of 2007. The mei-yu front occurs when the subtropical oceanic warm, moist air mass and the extra tropical continental dry, cold air mass converge on the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau. The authors defined the equivalent temperature using two terms of dry-air temperature and the specific humidity and calculated its horizontal gradient to indicate the mei-yu front. The vertical structure of the mei-yu front and the moist thermal winds surrounding it were examined based on the equivalent temperature.展开更多
This study focuses on an extreme rainfall event in East China during the mei-yu season,in which the capital city(Nanjing)of Jiangsu Province experienced a maximum 14-h rainfall accumulation of 209.6 mm and a peak hour...This study focuses on an extreme rainfall event in East China during the mei-yu season,in which the capital city(Nanjing)of Jiangsu Province experienced a maximum 14-h rainfall accumulation of 209.6 mm and a peak hourly rainfall of 118.8 mm.The performance of two sets of convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems(CEFSs),each with 30 members and a 3-km horizontal grid spacing,is evaluated.The CEFS_ICBCs,using multiple initial and boundary conditions(ICs and BCs),and the CEFS_ICBCs Phys,which incorporates both multi-physics schemes and ICs/BCs,are compared to the CMA-REPS(China Meteorological Administration-Regional Ensemble Prediction System)with a coarser 10-km grid spacing.The two CEFSs demonstrate more uniform rank histograms and lower Brier scores(with higher resolution),improving precipitation intensity predictions and providing more reliable probability forecasts,although they overestimate precipitation over Mt.Dabie.It is challenging for the CEFSs to capture the evolution of mesoscale rainstorms that are known to be related to the errors in predicting the southwesterly low-level winds.Sensitivity experiments reveal that the microphysics and radiation schemes introduce considerable uncertainty in predicting the intensity and location of heavy rainfall in and near Nanjing and Mt.Dabie.In particular,the Asymmetric Convection Model 2(ACM2)planetary boundary layer scheme combined with the Pleim-Xiu surface layer scheme tends to produce a biased northeastward extension of the boundary-layer jet,contributing to the northeastward bias of heavy precipitation around Nanjing in the CEFS_ICBCs.展开更多
The Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season during the summer of 2020,prompting investigation into the role of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling in simulating this extreme event.T...The Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season during the summer of 2020,prompting investigation into the role of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling in simulating this extreme event.Through comparative analysis of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled(CP)and atmosphere-only(WRF)simulations,the aim of this study was to elucidate the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon.Results indicate that CP effectively reproduced the observed sea surface temperature spatial distribution and its daily variation during the period from 25 June to 25 July 2020,and notably reduced the wet biases over the YHRV when compared to WRF simulations.This improvement in representation was manifested in the observed rainfall spatial distribution and daily variability.The wet biases simulated by WRF were associated with a stronger 200-hPa westerly jet and a more westward-positioned western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)with more intense 500-hPa winds and a stronger 850-hPa circulation.However,these biases were significantly reduced in CP simulations.Mechanism analysis revealed that regional ocean-atmosphere coupling over the western Northwest Pacific influenced surface turbulent heat fluxes and atmospheric instability,thereby modulating the intensity and position of the WNPSH and associated circulation subsystems at different levels.Moreover,adjustments in land-sea thermal contrast induced by ocean-atmosphere coupling impacted YHRV precipitation by altering East Asian circulation systems.These findings highlight the significant role of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling in enhancing the simulation and understanding of extreme mei-yu events over East Asia.展开更多
Diurnal variations of two mountain-plain solenoid （MPS） circulations associated with ＂first-step＂ terrain [Tibetan Plateau （TP）] and ＂second-step＂ terrain （high mountains between the TP and ＂east plains＂） ...Diurnal variations of two mountain-plain solenoid （MPS） circulations associated with ＂first-step＂ terrain [Tibetan Plateau （TP）] and ＂second-step＂ terrain （high mountains between the TP and ＂east plains＂） in China and their influence on the south west vortex （SWV） and the mei-yu front vortex （MYFV） were investigated via a semi-idealized mesoscale numerical model [Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF）] simulation integrated with ten-day average fields （mei-yu period of 1-10 July 2007）. The simulations successfully reproduced two MPS circulations related to first and second-step terrain, diurnal vari- ations from the eastern edge of the TP to the Yangtze River-Huaihe River valleys （YHRV）, and two precipitation maximum centers related to the SWV, MYFV. Analyses of the averaged final seven-day simulation showed the different diurnal peaks of precipitation at different regions： from the aftemoon to early evening at the eastern edge of the TP; in the early evening to the next early morning in the Sichuan Basin （SCB）; and in the late evening to the next early morning over the mei-yu front （MYF）. Analyses of individual two-day cases confirmed that the upward branches of the nightlime MPS circulations enhanced the precipitation over the SWV and the MYFV and revealed that the eastward extension of the SWV and its con vection were conducive to triggering the MYFVs. The eastward propagation of a rainfall streak from the eastern edge of the TP to the eastern coastal region was primarily due to a series of convective activities of several systems from west to east, including the MPS between the TP and SCB, the SWV, the MPS between second-step terrain and tile east plains, and the MYFV.展开更多
Recently reported results indicate that small amplitude and small scale initial errors grow rapidly and subsequently contaminate short-term deterministic mesoscale forecasts. This rapid error growth is dependent on no...Recently reported results indicate that small amplitude and small scale initial errors grow rapidly and subsequently contaminate short-term deterministic mesoscale forecasts. This rapid error growth is dependent on not only moist convection but also the flow regime. In this study, the mesoscale predictability and error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall is investigated by simulating a particular precipitation event along the mei-yu front on 4- 6 July 2003 in eastern China. Due to the multi-scale character of the mei-yu front and scale interactions, the error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall forecasts is markedly different from that in middle-latitude moist baroclinic systems. The optimal growth of the errors has a relatively wide spectrum, though it gradually migrates with time from small scale to mesoscale. During the whole period of this heavy rainfall event, the error growth has three different stages, which similar to the evolution of 6-hour accumulated precipitation. Multi-step error growth manifests as an increase of the amplitude of errors, the horizontal scale of the errors, or both. The vertical profile of forecast errors in the developing convective instability and the moist physics convective system indicates two peaks, which correspond with inside the mei-yu front, and related to moist The error growth for the mei-yu heavy rainfall is concentrated convective instability and scale interaction.展开更多
Atmospheric rivers(ARs)are long,narrow,and transient filaments of strong horizontal water vapor transport that can lead to extreme precipitation.To investigate the relationship between ARs and mei-yu rainfall in China...Atmospheric rivers(ARs)are long,narrow,and transient filaments of strong horizontal water vapor transport that can lead to extreme precipitation.To investigate the relationship between ARs and mei-yu rainfall in China,the mei-yu season of 2020 in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin is taken as an example.An adjusted AR-detection algorithm is applied on integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the ERA5 reanalysis.The JRA-55 reanalysis and the data from Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM(IMERG)are also utilized to study the impacts of ARs on mei-yu rainfall in 2020.The results reveal that ARs in East Asia have an average length of 5400 km,a width of 600 km,a length/width ratio of 9.3,and a northeastward orientation of 30°.ARs are modulated by the western North Pacific subtropical high.The IVT core is located at the south side of low pressure systems,moving eastward with a speed of 10°d−1.For the cross sections of ARs in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin,75%of the total flux is concentrated below 4 km with low-level jets near AR cores.Moreover,ARs occur mainly in the mei-yu period with a frequency of 20%–60%.The intensity of AR-related precipitation is 6–12 times that of AR-unrelated precipitation,and AR-related precipitation contributes about 50%–80%to total mei-yu precipitation.As shown in this case study of summer 2020,ARs are an essential part of the mei-yu system and have great impacts on mei-yu rainfall.Thus,ARs should receive more attention in research and weather forecast practices.展开更多
Highly unusual amounts of rainfall were seen in the 2020 summer in many parts of China,Japan,and South Korea.At the intercontinental scale,case studies have attributed this exceptional event to a displacement of the c...Highly unusual amounts of rainfall were seen in the 2020 summer in many parts of China,Japan,and South Korea.At the intercontinental scale,case studies have attributed this exceptional event to a displacement of the climatological western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,potentially associated Indian Ocean sea surface temperature patterns and a mid-latitude wave train emanating from the North Atlantic.Using clusters of spatial patterns of sea level pressure,we show that an unprecedented 80%of the 2020 summer days in East Asia were dominated by clusters of surface pressure greater than normal over the South China Sea.By examining the rainfall and water vapor fluxes in other years when these clusters were also prevalent,we find that the frequency of these types of clusters was likely to have been largely responsible for the unusual rainfall of 2020.From two ensembles of future climate projections,we show that summers like 2020 in East Asia may become more frequent and considerably wetter in a warmer world with an enhanced moisture supply.展开更多
Large parts of East and South Asia were affected by heavy precipitation and flooding during early summer 2020.This study provides both a statistical and dynamical characterization of rains and floods affecting the Yan...Large parts of East and South Asia were affected by heavy precipitation and flooding during early summer 2020.This study provides both a statistical and dynamical characterization of rains and floods affecting the Yangtze River Basin(YRB).By aggregating daily and monthly precipitation over river basins across Asia,it is shown that the YRB is one of the areas that was particularly affected.June and July 2020 rainfall was higher than in the previous 20 years,and the YRB experienced anomalously high rainfall across most of its sub-basins.YRB discharge also attained levels not seen since 1998/1999.An automated method detecting the daily position of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Front(EASMF)is applied to show that the anomalously high YRB precipitation was associated with a halted northward progression of the EASMF and prolonged mei-yu conditions over the YRB lasting more than one month.Two 5-day heavy-precipitation episodes(12−16 June and 4−8 July 2020)are selected from this period for dynamical characterization,including Lagrangian trajectory analysis.Particular attention is devoted to the dynamics of the airstreams converging at the EASMF.Both episodes display heavy precipitation and convergence of monsoonal and subtropical air masses.However,clear differences are identified in the upper-level flow pattern,substantially affecting the balance of airmass advection towards the EASMF.This study contextualizes heavy precipitation in Asia in summer 2020 and showcases several analysis tools developed by the authors for the study of such events.展开更多
Here,we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs)in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth genera...Here,we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs)in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5)reanalysis dataset.Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs)concentrated at heights of 900-1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 2300 LST(LST=UTC+8 hours)but are strongest at 0200 LST,with composite wind velocities>14 m s^(-1).Synoptic-system-related LLJs(SLLJs)occur most frequently at 0800 LST but are strongest at 1100LST,with composite wind velocities>12 m s^(-1).Both BLJs and SLLJs are characterized by a southwesterly wind direction,although the wind direction of SLLJs is more westerly,and northeasterly SLLJs occur more frequently than northeasterly BLJs.When Wuhan is south of the mei-yu front,the westward extension of the northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies,and the low-pressure system in the eastern Tibetan Plateau strengthens,favoring the formation of LLJs,which are closely related to precipitation.The wind speeds on rainstorm days are greater than those on LLJ days.Our analysis of four typical heavy precipitation events shows the presence of LLJs at the center of the precipitation and on its southern side before the onset of heavy precipitation.BLJs were shown to develop earlier than SLLJs.展开更多
Extreme Mei-yu rainfall(MYR)can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China.While significant improvements have been made in climate models,they often struggle to simulate loca...Extreme Mei-yu rainfall(MYR)can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China.While significant improvements have been made in climate models,they often struggle to simulate local-to-regional extreme rainfall(e.g.,MYR).Yet,large-scale climate modes(LSCMs)are relatively well represented in climate models.Since there exists a close relationship between MYR and various LSCMs,it might be possible to develop causality-guided statistical models for MYR prediction based on LSCMs.These statistical models could then be applied to climate model simulations to improve the representation of MYR in climate models.In this pilot study,it is demonstrated that skillful causality-guided statistical models for MYR can be constructed based on known LSCMs.The relevancy of the selected predictors for statistical models are found to be consistent with the literature.The importance of temporal resolution in constructing statistical models for MYR is also shown and is in good agreement with the literature.The results demonstrate the reliability of the causality-guided approach in studying complex circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM).Some limitations and possible improvements of the current approach are discussed.The application of the causality-guided approach opens up a new possibility to uncover the complex interactions in the EASM in future studies.展开更多
A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was generated over the South China Sea at arouna 115°E, 21°N on 0000 UTC 7 June 1998. Riding along the Mei-Yu front, the system moved through the Taiwan Strait and finally...A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was generated over the South China Sea at arouna 115°E, 21°N on 0000 UTC 7 June 1998. Riding along the Mei-Yu front, the system moved through the Taiwan Strait and finally hit the southern part of the Taiwan Island, produced over 300 mm of rainfall over parts of Taiwan in the next 24 hours. It was found that the Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) did quite well in simulating the evolution of the MCS. Diagnostic studies on the mesoscale structure of MCS, moisture concentration process and the momentum budget were based on the model output. The concept model of the MCS in the mature phase can be concluded as the following: At the 850 hPa level, the mesoscale low level jet (mLLJ) was found to the southwest of the MCS, which was also associated with a mesoscale low generated by convection, the mesoscale upper level jet (mULJ) was found due east of the MCS (and an upper-level mesoscale high) at the 300 hPa level. Horizontal advection of momentum acted to展开更多
The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley(YHRV)in 2020 was characterized by an early onset,a delayed retreat,a long duration,a wide meridional rainbelt,abundant precipitation,and frequent heavy rai...The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley(YHRV)in 2020 was characterized by an early onset,a delayed retreat,a long duration,a wide meridional rainbelt,abundant precipitation,and frequent heavy rainstorm processes.It is noted that the East Asian monsoon circulation system presented a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)during the mei-yu season of 2020 that was associated with the onset and retreat of mei-yu,a northward shift and stagnation of the rainbelt,and the occurrence and persistence of heavy rainstorm processes.Correspondingly,during the mei-yu season,the monsoon circulation subsystems,including the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),the upper-level East Asian westerly jet,and the low-level southwesterly jet,experienced periodic oscillations linked with the QBWO.Most notably,the repeated establishment of a large southerly center,with relatively stable latitude,led to moisture convergence and ascent which was observed to develop repeatedly.This was accompanied by a long-term duration of the mei-yu rainfall in the YHRV and frequent occurrences of rainstorm processes.Moreover,two blocking highs were present in the middle to high latitudes over Eurasia,and a trough along the East Asian coast was also active,which allowed cold air intrusions to move southward through the northwestern and/or northeastern paths.The cold air frequently merged with the warm and moist air from the low latitudes resulting in low-level convergence over the YHRV.The persistent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is found to be an important external contributor to an EAP/PJ-like teleconnection pattern over East Asia along with an intensified and southerly displaced WPSH,which was observed to be favorable for excessive rainfall over YHRV.展开更多
The summer snow anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） and their effects on climate variability are often overlooked,possibly due to the fact that some datasets cannot properly capture summer snow cover over high t...The summer snow anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） and their effects on climate variability are often overlooked,possibly due to the fact that some datasets cannot properly capture summer snow cover over high terrain.The satellite-derived Equal-Area Scalable Earth grid （EASE-grid） dataset shows that snow still exists in summer in the western part and along the southem flank of the TP.Analysis demonstrates that the summer snow cover area proportion （SCAP） over the TP has a significant positive correlation with simultaneous precipitation over the mei-yu-baiu （MB） region on the interannual time scale.The close relationship between the summer SCAP and summer precipitation over the MB region could not be simply considered as a simultaneous response to the Silk Road pattern and the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical central-eastern Pacific.The SCAP anomaly has an independent effect and may directly modulate the land surface heating and,consequently,vertical motion over the western TP,and concurrently induce anomalous vertical motion over the North Indian Ocean via a meridional vertical circulation.Through a zonal vertical circulation over the tropics and a Kelvin wave-type response,anomalous vertical motion over the North Indian Ocean may result in an anomalous high over the western North Pacific and modulate the convective activity in the western Pacific warm pool,which stimulates the East Asia-Pacific （EAP） pattern and eventually affects summer precipitation over the MB region.展开更多
文摘In this paper, a typical mei-yu front process with heavy rainfall from June 12 to 15 in 1998 is analyzed. The results show that the mei-yu front is a front system which consists of an iso-theta(e) dense area with strong horizontal gradient, a deep-convective cloud tower band, a passageway transporting warm and moist air flow from the summer monsoon surge in the mid and low levels to the south of the mei-yu front, and a migrating synoptic scale trough to the north of the mei-yu front, which transports cold and dry air southward in the mid and upper levels. The maintenance of the mei-yu front is realized by: (1) is a positive feedback between the moist physical process enhancing frontogenesis and the development of the strong convective system in front of the mei-yu front; (2) the sustaining system to the north of the mei-yu front which is a migrating synoptic scale trough transporting cold and dry air to the mei-yu front and positive vorticity to the mesoscale system in front of the mei-yu front.
基金This project was supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development Project 2004CB418301the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40405008.
文摘The conventional and intensive observational data of the China Heavy Rain Experiment and Study (CHeRES) are used to specially analyze the heavy rainfall process in the mei-yu front that occurred during 20-21 June 2002, focusing on the meso-β system. A mesoscale convective system (MCS) formed in the warm-moist southwesterly to the south of the shear line over the Dabie Mountains and over the gorge between the Dabie and Jiuhua Mountains. The mei-yu front and shear line provide a favorable synoptic condition for the development of convection. The GPS observation indicates that the precipitable water increased obviously about 2-3 h earlier than the occurrence of rainfall and decreased after that. The abundant moisture transportation by southwesterly wind was favorable to the maintenance of convective instability and the accumulation of convective available potential energy (CAPE). Radar detection reveals that meso-β and -γ systems were very active in the MaCS. Several convection lines developed during the evolution of the MaCS, and these are associated with surface convergence lines. The boundary outflow of the convection line may have triggered another convection line. The convection line moved with the mesoscale surface convergence line, but the convective cells embedded in the convergence line propagated along the line. On the basis of the analyses of the intensive observation data, a multi-scale conceptual model of heavy rainfall in the mei-yu front for this particular case is proposed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40505011.
文摘A mei-yu front process in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River on 23 June 1999 was simulated by using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR （PSU/NCAR） Mesoscale Model （MM5） with FDDA （Four Dimension Data Assimilation）. The analysis shows that seven weak small mesoscale vortexes of tens of kilometers, correspondent to surface low trough or mesoscale centers, in the planetary boundary layer （PBL） in the mei-yu front were heavily responsible for the heavy rainfall. Sometimes, several weak small-scale vortexes in the PBL could form a vortex group, some of which would weaken locally, and some would develop to be a meso-α-scale low vortex through combination. The initial dynamical triggering mechanism was related to two strong currents： one was the northeast flow in the PBL at the rear of the mei-yu front, the vortexes occurred exactly at the side of the northeast flow; and the other was the strong southwest low-level jet （LLJ） in front of the Mei-yu front, which moved to the upper of the vortexes. Consequently, there were notable horizontal and vertical wind shears to form positive vorticity in the center of the southwest LLJ. The development of mesoscale convergence in the PBL and divergence above, as well as the vertical positive vorticity column, were related to the small wind column above the nose-shaped velocity contours of the northeast flow embedding southwestward in the PBL, which intensified the horizontal wind shear and the positive vorticity column above the vortexes, baroclinicity and instability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40405020.
文摘An adjoint sensitivity analysis of one mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front is presented in this paper. The sensitivity gradient of simulation error dry energy with respect to initial analysis is calculated. And after verifying the ability of a tangent linear and adjoint model to describe small perturbations in the nonlinear model, the sensitivity gradient analysis is implemented in detail. The sensitivity gradient with respect to different physical fields are not uniform in intensity, simulation error is most sensitive to the vapor mixed ratio. The localization and consistency are obvious characters of horizontal distribution of the sensitivity gradient, which is useful for the practical implementation of adaptive observation. The sensitivity region tilts to the northwest with height increasing; the singular vector calculation proves that this tilting characterizes a quick-growing structure, which denotes that using the leading singular vectors to decide the adaptive observation region is proper. When connected with simulation of a mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front, the sensitivity gradient has the following physical characters： the obvious sensitive region is mesoscale, concentrated in the middle-upper troposphere, and locates around the key system; and the sensitivity gradient of different physical fields correlates dynamically.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1501603)the Major Research Plan of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91937301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41775054,41375061 and 40705019).
文摘Parallel back-building convective lines are often observed extending to the southwest of some mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)embedded in the mei-yu front in China.The convective lines with echo training behavior can quickly develop into a stronger convective group of echoes,resulting in locally heavy rainfall within the mei-yu front rainband.The initiation mechanism of the back-building convective lines is still unclear and is studied based on high-resolution numerical simulation of a case that occurred during 27−28 June 2013.In the present case,the new convection along the convective lines was found to be forced by nonuniform interaction between the cold outflow associated with the mei-yu front MCSs and the warm southerly airflow on the south side of the mei-yu front,which both are modified by local terrain.The mei-yu front MCSs evolved from the western to the eastern side of a basin surrounded by several mesoscale mountains and induced cold outflow centered over the eastern part of the basin.The strong southwest airflow ahead of the mei-yu front passed the Nanling Mountains and impacted the cold outflow within the basin.The nonuniform interaction led to the first stage of parallel convective line formation,in which the low mountains along the boundary of the two airflows enhanced the heterogeneity of their interaction.Subsequently,the convective group quickly developed from the first stage convective lines resulted in apparent precipitation cooling that enhanced the cold outflow and made the cold outflow a sharp southward windshift.The enhanced cold outflow pushed the warm southerly airflow southward and impacted the mountains on the southeast side of the basin,where the roughly parallel mountain valleys or gaps play a controlling role in a second stage formation of parallel convective lines.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40105012,49928504,and 40221503“973”Project under Grant No.G1999032801the Key Innovation Direction Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No.KZCX2208.The authors warmly thank Wu Rongsheng and Wang Yuan of N anjing University for their valuable advice.
文摘The numerical forecasts of mei-yu front rainstorms in China has been an important issue. The intensity and pattern of the frontal rainfall are greatly influenced by the initial fields of the numerical model. The 4-dimensional variational data assimilation technology (4DVAR) can effectively assimilate all kinds of observed data, including rainfall data at the observed stations, so that the initial fields and the precipitation forecast can both be greatly improved. The non-hydrostatic meso-scale model (MM5) and its adjoint model are used to study the development of the mei-yu front rainstorm from 1200 UTC 25 June to 0600 UTC 26 June 1999. By numerical simulation experiments and assimilation experiments, the T106 data and the observed 6-hour rainfall data are assimilated. The influences of many factors, such as the choice of the assimilated variables and the weighting coefficient, on the precipitation forecast results are studied. The numerical results show that 4DVAR is valuable and important to mei-yu front rainfall prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40975023)the Special Promotion Program for Meteorology (Grant No. GYHY201406011 and No. GYHY201106044)the National High Technology Research and Development Project of China (Grant No. 2012AA120903)
文摘Based on normalized six-hourly black body temperature （TBB） data of three geostationary meteorological satellites,the leading modes of the mei-yu cloud system between 1998 and 2008 were extracted by the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） method,and the transition processes from the first typical leading mode to other leading modes were discussed and compared.The analysis shows that,when the southern mode （EOF1） transforms to the northeastern mode （EOF3）,in the mid-troposphere,a low trough develops and moves southeastward over central and eastern China.The circulation pattern is characterized by two highs and one low in the lower troposphere.A belt of low pressure is sandwiched between the weak high over central and western China and the strong western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH）.Cold air moves southward along the northerly flow behind the low,and meets the warm and moist air between the WNPSH and the forepart of the low trough,which leads to continuous convection.At the same time,the central extent of the WNPSH increases while its ridge extends westward.In addition,transitions from the southern mode to the dual centers mode and the tropical-low-influenced mode were found to be atypical,and so no common points could be concluded.Furthermore,the choice of threshold value can affect the number of samples discussed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40975039)
文摘In China's Mainland, the summer monsoon rainy band is referred to as the mei-yu precipitation front, which extends northward from South China to the Yangtze River, Huaihe River, and Yellow River, depending on the season. This paper describes the structure of the mei-yu front associated with a persistent heavy rainfall event that occurred in the summer of 2007. The mei-yu front occurs when the subtropical oceanic warm, moist air mass and the extra tropical continental dry, cold air mass converge on the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau. The authors defined the equivalent temperature using two terms of dry-air temperature and the specific humidity and calculated its horizontal gradient to indicate the mei-yu front. The vertical structure of the mei-yu front and the moist thermal winds surrounding it were examined based on the equivalent temperature.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42030610 and 42205006)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST(2023r121)。
文摘This study focuses on an extreme rainfall event in East China during the mei-yu season,in which the capital city(Nanjing)of Jiangsu Province experienced a maximum 14-h rainfall accumulation of 209.6 mm and a peak hourly rainfall of 118.8 mm.The performance of two sets of convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems(CEFSs),each with 30 members and a 3-km horizontal grid spacing,is evaluated.The CEFS_ICBCs,using multiple initial and boundary conditions(ICs and BCs),and the CEFS_ICBCs Phys,which incorporates both multi-physics schemes and ICs/BCs,are compared to the CMA-REPS(China Meteorological Administration-Regional Ensemble Prediction System)with a coarser 10-km grid spacing.The two CEFSs demonstrate more uniform rank histograms and lower Brier scores(with higher resolution),improving precipitation intensity predictions and providing more reliable probability forecasts,although they overestimate precipitation over Mt.Dabie.It is challenging for the CEFSs to capture the evolution of mesoscale rainstorms that are known to be related to the errors in predicting the southwesterly low-level winds.Sensitivity experiments reveal that the microphysics and radiation schemes introduce considerable uncertainty in predicting the intensity and location of heavy rainfall in and near Nanjing and Mt.Dabie.In particular,the Asymmetric Convection Model 2(ACM2)planetary boundary layer scheme combined with the Pleim-Xiu surface layer scheme tends to produce a biased northeastward extension of the boundary-layer jet,contributing to the northeastward bias of heavy precipitation around Nanjing in the CEFS_ICBCs.
基金the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility (EarthLab)” for its support of our studyjointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2023YFF0805501)+2 种基金the Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME) of the Ministry of Education, and the Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD) at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China (Grant No. KLME202204)the NSFC program (42141017)support from the China Scholarship Council.
文摘The Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season during the summer of 2020,prompting investigation into the role of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling in simulating this extreme event.Through comparative analysis of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled(CP)and atmosphere-only(WRF)simulations,the aim of this study was to elucidate the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon.Results indicate that CP effectively reproduced the observed sea surface temperature spatial distribution and its daily variation during the period from 25 June to 25 July 2020,and notably reduced the wet biases over the YHRV when compared to WRF simulations.This improvement in representation was manifested in the observed rainfall spatial distribution and daily variability.The wet biases simulated by WRF were associated with a stronger 200-hPa westerly jet and a more westward-positioned western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)with more intense 500-hPa winds and a stronger 850-hPa circulation.However,these biases were significantly reduced in CP simulations.Mechanism analysis revealed that regional ocean-atmosphere coupling over the western Northwest Pacific influenced surface turbulent heat fluxes and atmospheric instability,thereby modulating the intensity and position of the WNPSH and associated circulation subsystems at different levels.Moreover,adjustments in land-sea thermal contrast induced by ocean-atmosphere coupling impacted YHRV precipitation by altering East Asian circulation systems.These findings highlight the significant role of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling in enhancing the simulation and understanding of extreme mei-yu events over East Asia.
基金jointly sponsored by a project of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(Grant No.2011LASWA15)the National Key Basic Research and Development Project of China(Grant No.2012CB417201)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40930951)
文摘Diurnal variations of two mountain-plain solenoid （MPS） circulations associated with ＂first-step＂ terrain [Tibetan Plateau （TP）] and ＂second-step＂ terrain （high mountains between the TP and ＂east plains＂） in China and their influence on the south west vortex （SWV） and the mei-yu front vortex （MYFV） were investigated via a semi-idealized mesoscale numerical model [Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF）] simulation integrated with ten-day average fields （mei-yu period of 1-10 July 2007）. The simulations successfully reproduced two MPS circulations related to first and second-step terrain, diurnal vari- ations from the eastern edge of the TP to the Yangtze River-Huaihe River valleys （YHRV）, and two precipitation maximum centers related to the SWV, MYFV. Analyses of the averaged final seven-day simulation showed the different diurnal peaks of precipitation at different regions： from the aftemoon to early evening at the eastern edge of the TP; in the early evening to the next early morning in the Sichuan Basin （SCB）; and in the late evening to the next early morning over the mei-yu front （MYF）. Analyses of individual two-day cases confirmed that the upward branches of the nightlime MPS circulations enhanced the precipitation over the SWV and the MYFV and revealed that the eastward extension of the SWV and its con vection were conducive to triggering the MYFVs. The eastward propagation of a rainfall streak from the eastern edge of the TP to the eastern coastal region was primarily due to a series of convective activities of several systems from west to east, including the MPS between the TP and SCB, the SWV, the MPS between second-step terrain and tile east plains, and the MYFV.
基金supported by the National Key Scientific and Technological Project 2006BAC02B03,2004CB418300under the FANEDD 200325+1 种基金The Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education (20080284019)National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40325014
文摘Recently reported results indicate that small amplitude and small scale initial errors grow rapidly and subsequently contaminate short-term deterministic mesoscale forecasts. This rapid error growth is dependent on not only moist convection but also the flow regime. In this study, the mesoscale predictability and error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall is investigated by simulating a particular precipitation event along the mei-yu front on 4- 6 July 2003 in eastern China. Due to the multi-scale character of the mei-yu front and scale interactions, the error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall forecasts is markedly different from that in middle-latitude moist baroclinic systems. The optimal growth of the errors has a relatively wide spectrum, though it gradually migrates with time from small scale to mesoscale. During the whole period of this heavy rainfall event, the error growth has three different stages, which similar to the evolution of 6-hour accumulated precipitation. Multi-step error growth manifests as an increase of the amplitude of errors, the horizontal scale of the errors, or both. The vertical profile of forecast errors in the developing convective instability and the moist physics convective system indicates two peaks, which correspond with inside the mei-yu front, and related to moist The error growth for the mei-yu heavy rainfall is concentrated convective instability and scale interaction.
基金This research was supported jointly by the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant No.2016YFA0600604)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.4191101005 and 4181101164)the Alliance of the International Science Organizations(Grant No.ANSO-CR-KP-2020-01).
文摘Atmospheric rivers(ARs)are long,narrow,and transient filaments of strong horizontal water vapor transport that can lead to extreme precipitation.To investigate the relationship between ARs and mei-yu rainfall in China,the mei-yu season of 2020 in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin is taken as an example.An adjusted AR-detection algorithm is applied on integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the ERA5 reanalysis.The JRA-55 reanalysis and the data from Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM(IMERG)are also utilized to study the impacts of ARs on mei-yu rainfall in 2020.The results reveal that ARs in East Asia have an average length of 5400 km,a width of 600 km,a length/width ratio of 9.3,and a northeastward orientation of 30°.ARs are modulated by the western North Pacific subtropical high.The IVT core is located at the south side of low pressure systems,moving eastward with a speed of 10°d−1.For the cross sections of ARs in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin,75%of the total flux is concentrated below 4 km with low-level jets near AR cores.Moreover,ARs occur mainly in the mei-yu period with a frequency of 20%–60%.The intensity of AR-related precipitation is 6–12 times that of AR-unrelated precipitation,and AR-related precipitation contributes about 50%–80%to total mei-yu precipitation.As shown in this case study of summer 2020,ARs are an essential part of the mei-yu system and have great impacts on mei-yu rainfall.Thus,ARs should receive more attention in research and weather forecast practices.
基金Lixia ZHANG was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.42075037the Innovative Team Project of Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology(GHSCXTD-2020-2)Chaofan LI was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1506005).
文摘Highly unusual amounts of rainfall were seen in the 2020 summer in many parts of China,Japan,and South Korea.At the intercontinental scale,case studies have attributed this exceptional event to a displacement of the climatological western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,potentially associated Indian Ocean sea surface temperature patterns and a mid-latitude wave train emanating from the North Atlantic.Using clusters of spatial patterns of sea level pressure,we show that an unprecedented 80%of the 2020 summer days in East Asia were dominated by clusters of surface pressure greater than normal over the South China Sea.By examining the rainfall and water vapor fluxes in other years when these clusters were also prevalent,we find that the frequency of these types of clusters was likely to have been largely responsible for the unusual rainfall of 2020.From two ensembles of future climate projections,we show that summers like 2020 in East Asia may become more frequent and considerably wetter in a warmer world with an enhanced moisture supply.
基金AV,MM,RS,AGT and NPK were supported by the COSMIC project through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund,contract number P106301NPK was supported by a Natural Environmental Research Council(NERC)Independent Research Fellowship(NE/L010976/1)+1 种基金by the ACREW programme of the National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceWe thank Omar V.MÜLLER for help with GloFAS-ERA5.
文摘Large parts of East and South Asia were affected by heavy precipitation and flooding during early summer 2020.This study provides both a statistical and dynamical characterization of rains and floods affecting the Yangtze River Basin(YRB).By aggregating daily and monthly precipitation over river basins across Asia,it is shown that the YRB is one of the areas that was particularly affected.June and July 2020 rainfall was higher than in the previous 20 years,and the YRB experienced anomalously high rainfall across most of its sub-basins.YRB discharge also attained levels not seen since 1998/1999.An automated method detecting the daily position of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Front(EASMF)is applied to show that the anomalously high YRB precipitation was associated with a halted northward progression of the EASMF and prolonged mei-yu conditions over the YRB lasting more than one month.Two 5-day heavy-precipitation episodes(12−16 June and 4−8 July 2020)are selected from this period for dynamical characterization,including Lagrangian trajectory analysis.Particular attention is devoted to the dynamics of the airstreams converging at the EASMF.Both episodes display heavy precipitation and convergence of monsoonal and subtropical air masses.However,clear differences are identified in the upper-level flow pattern,substantially affecting the balance of airmass advection towards the EASMF.This study contextualizes heavy precipitation in Asia in summer 2020 and showcases several analysis tools developed by the authors for the study of such events.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42230612,41620104009,41705019,42075186,and 41975058)the Projects of the S&T Development Foundation of the Hubei Meteorological Bureau(Grants No.2021Q04 and 2020Y04)。
文摘Here,we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs)in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5)reanalysis dataset.Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs)concentrated at heights of 900-1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 2300 LST(LST=UTC+8 hours)but are strongest at 0200 LST,with composite wind velocities>14 m s^(-1).Synoptic-system-related LLJs(SLLJs)occur most frequently at 0800 LST but are strongest at 1100LST,with composite wind velocities>12 m s^(-1).Both BLJs and SLLJs are characterized by a southwesterly wind direction,although the wind direction of SLLJs is more westerly,and northeasterly SLLJs occur more frequently than northeasterly BLJs.When Wuhan is south of the mei-yu front,the westward extension of the northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies,and the low-pressure system in the eastern Tibetan Plateau strengthens,favoring the formation of LLJs,which are closely related to precipitation.The wind speeds on rainstorm days are greater than those on LLJ days.Our analysis of four typical heavy precipitation events shows the presence of LLJs at the center of the precipitation and on its southern side before the onset of heavy precipitation.BLJs were shown to develop earlier than SLLJs.
基金supported by the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund。
文摘Extreme Mei-yu rainfall(MYR)can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China.While significant improvements have been made in climate models,they often struggle to simulate local-to-regional extreme rainfall(e.g.,MYR).Yet,large-scale climate modes(LSCMs)are relatively well represented in climate models.Since there exists a close relationship between MYR and various LSCMs,it might be possible to develop causality-guided statistical models for MYR prediction based on LSCMs.These statistical models could then be applied to climate model simulations to improve the representation of MYR in climate models.In this pilot study,it is demonstrated that skillful causality-guided statistical models for MYR can be constructed based on known LSCMs.The relevancy of the selected predictors for statistical models are found to be consistent with the literature.The importance of temporal resolution in constructing statistical models for MYR is also shown and is in good agreement with the literature.The results demonstrate the reliability of the causality-guided approach in studying complex circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM).Some limitations and possible improvements of the current approach are discussed.The application of the causality-guided approach opens up a new possibility to uncover the complex interactions in the EASM in future studies.
文摘A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was generated over the South China Sea at arouna 115°E, 21°N on 0000 UTC 7 June 1998. Riding along the Mei-Yu front, the system moved through the Taiwan Strait and finally hit the southern part of the Taiwan Island, produced over 300 mm of rainfall over parts of Taiwan in the next 24 hours. It was found that the Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) did quite well in simulating the evolution of the MCS. Diagnostic studies on the mesoscale structure of MCS, moisture concentration process and the momentum budget were based on the model output. The concept model of the MCS in the mature phase can be concluded as the following: At the 850 hPa level, the mesoscale low level jet (mLLJ) was found to the southwest of the MCS, which was also associated with a mesoscale low generated by convection, the mesoscale upper level jet (mULJ) was found due east of the MCS (and an upper-level mesoscale high) at the 300 hPa level. Horizontal advection of momentum acted to
基金This work was jointly supported by National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1505806)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)+1 种基金National Science Foundation of China(41875100)the China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development Project(CXFZ2021Z033),and China Three Gorges Corporation(Grant No.0704181).
文摘The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley(YHRV)in 2020 was characterized by an early onset,a delayed retreat,a long duration,a wide meridional rainbelt,abundant precipitation,and frequent heavy rainstorm processes.It is noted that the East Asian monsoon circulation system presented a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)during the mei-yu season of 2020 that was associated with the onset and retreat of mei-yu,a northward shift and stagnation of the rainbelt,and the occurrence and persistence of heavy rainstorm processes.Correspondingly,during the mei-yu season,the monsoon circulation subsystems,including the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),the upper-level East Asian westerly jet,and the low-level southwesterly jet,experienced periodic oscillations linked with the QBWO.Most notably,the repeated establishment of a large southerly center,with relatively stable latitude,led to moisture convergence and ascent which was observed to develop repeatedly.This was accompanied by a long-term duration of the mei-yu rainfall in the YHRV and frequent occurrences of rainstorm processes.Moreover,two blocking highs were present in the middle to high latitudes over Eurasia,and a trough along the East Asian coast was also active,which allowed cold air intrusions to move southward through the northwestern and/or northeastern paths.The cold air frequently merged with the warm and moist air from the low latitudes resulting in low-level convergence over the YHRV.The persistent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is found to be an important external contributor to an EAP/PJ-like teleconnection pattern over East Asia along with an intensified and southerly displaced WPSH,which was observed to be favorable for excessive rainfall over YHRV.
基金the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41271434)the National Key Technologies R&D Program in the 12th Five Year Plan of China (Grant No. 2012BAH32B03)+6 种基金the Hong Kong GRF (Grant No. CUHK 457212)the ITF (Grant No. GHP/002/11GD)the support of the Hong Kong Research Grants Council (Grant No. CUHK 403612)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275081 and 41228006)the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41375090 and 41221064)the Special Project of the National International Science and Technology Cooperation of China (Grant No. 2011DFG23450)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS (Grant No. 2013Z002)
文摘The summer snow anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） and their effects on climate variability are often overlooked,possibly due to the fact that some datasets cannot properly capture summer snow cover over high terrain.The satellite-derived Equal-Area Scalable Earth grid （EASE-grid） dataset shows that snow still exists in summer in the western part and along the southem flank of the TP.Analysis demonstrates that the summer snow cover area proportion （SCAP） over the TP has a significant positive correlation with simultaneous precipitation over the mei-yu-baiu （MB） region on the interannual time scale.The close relationship between the summer SCAP and summer precipitation over the MB region could not be simply considered as a simultaneous response to the Silk Road pattern and the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical central-eastern Pacific.The SCAP anomaly has an independent effect and may directly modulate the land surface heating and,consequently,vertical motion over the western TP,and concurrently induce anomalous vertical motion over the North Indian Ocean via a meridional vertical circulation.Through a zonal vertical circulation over the tropics and a Kelvin wave-type response,anomalous vertical motion over the North Indian Ocean may result in an anomalous high over the western North Pacific and modulate the convective activity in the western Pacific warm pool,which stimulates the East Asia-Pacific （EAP） pattern and eventually affects summer precipitation over the MB region.
