Predictive potential distribution modeling is of increasing importance in modern herpetological studies and determination of environmental and conservation priorities. In this article we provided results of analysis a...Predictive potential distribution modeling is of increasing importance in modern herpetological studies and determination of environmental and conservation priorities. In this article we provided results of analysis and forecasts of the potential distribution of smallscaled rock agama Paralaudakia microlepis （Blanford, 1874） using the distribution models through Maxent （www.cs.princeton.edu/- schapire / maxent）. We made an attempt for comparison of input of bioclimatic factors and characteristics of biotope distribution for three species of genus Paralaudalda. Constructed model identified dissemination of Paralaudakia microlepis enough performance （AUC = 0.972 with dispersion 0.003）. According to the map constructed, the most suitable habitats of smallscaled rock agama Paralaudakia microlepis are located in southern and eastern Iran, the west of central Pakistan and southeastern Afghanistan.展开更多
Predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Contributing to the management program, this study aimed to predict the distr...Predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Contributing to the management program, this study aimed to predict the distribution of two threatened medicinal plants, Fritillaria cirrhosa and Lilium nepalense. The location of focal species gathered from herbarium specimen housed in different herbaria and online databases were geo-referenced and checked for spatial autocorrelation. The predictive environmental variables were selected, and MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future distributions of focal species. Four Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） trajectories of the BCC-CSMI.1 model were used as the future （2050） projection layer. The MaxEnt modelling delineated the potential distribution of F. cirrhosa and L. nepalense. The current suitability is projected towards Central and Eastern Hilly/Mountainous regions. Both species gain maximum suitability in RCP 4.5 which decline towards other trajectories for L. nepalense. Overall, both the focal species shift towards the north-west, losing their potential habitat in hilly and lower mountainous regions by 2050 across all trajectories. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on two threatened and valuable species. The results can be further useful to initiate farming of these medicinally and economically important species based on climatically suitable zone and for designing a germplasm conservation strategy.展开更多
基金partially supported by grants from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research to NBA (Project 12-04-00057)the Scientific School Support Program (NSh- 2990.2014)
文摘Predictive potential distribution modeling is of increasing importance in modern herpetological studies and determination of environmental and conservation priorities. In this article we provided results of analysis and forecasts of the potential distribution of smallscaled rock agama Paralaudakia microlepis （Blanford, 1874） using the distribution models through Maxent （www.cs.princeton.edu/- schapire / maxent）. We made an attempt for comparison of input of bioclimatic factors and characteristics of biotope distribution for three species of genus Paralaudalda. Constructed model identified dissemination of Paralaudakia microlepis enough performance （AUC = 0.972 with dispersion 0.003）. According to the map constructed, the most suitable habitats of smallscaled rock agama Paralaudakia microlepis are located in southern and eastern Iran, the west of central Pakistan and southeastern Afghanistan.
基金Cornell Nepal Study Program for the partial financial supports to carry out field worksupported from the CGIAR research programs on'Forests,Trees and Agroforestry'(CRP6.2)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31270524)
文摘Predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Contributing to the management program, this study aimed to predict the distribution of two threatened medicinal plants, Fritillaria cirrhosa and Lilium nepalense. The location of focal species gathered from herbarium specimen housed in different herbaria and online databases were geo-referenced and checked for spatial autocorrelation. The predictive environmental variables were selected, and MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future distributions of focal species. Four Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） trajectories of the BCC-CSMI.1 model were used as the future （2050） projection layer. The MaxEnt modelling delineated the potential distribution of F. cirrhosa and L. nepalense. The current suitability is projected towards Central and Eastern Hilly/Mountainous regions. Both species gain maximum suitability in RCP 4.5 which decline towards other trajectories for L. nepalense. Overall, both the focal species shift towards the north-west, losing their potential habitat in hilly and lower mountainous regions by 2050 across all trajectories. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on two threatened and valuable species. The results can be further useful to initiate farming of these medicinally and economically important species based on climatically suitable zone and for designing a germplasm conservation strategy.
