Aims Predicting suitable habitat distribution is an effective way to protect rare or endangered medicinal plants.Cornus officinalis is a perennial tree growing in forest edge and its air-dried pericarp is one of the t...Aims Predicting suitable habitat distribution is an effective way to protect rare or endangered medicinal plants.Cornus officinalis is a perennial tree growing in forest edge and its air-dried pericarp is one of the traditional Chinese medicines(TCM)with significant medicinal values.In recent years,C.officinalis has undergone severe degeneration of its natural habitat owing to growing market demands and unprecedented damage to the forests.Moreover,the degeneration of suitable habitat has threatened the supply of medicinal materials,and even led to the extinction of some engendered medicinal plant species.In this case,there is a great risk to introduce and cultivate medicinal plants if planners determine the suitable cultivation regions based on personal subjective experience alone.Therefore,predicting suitable potential habitat distribution of medicinal plants(e.g.C.officinalis)and revealing the environmental factors determining such distribution patterns are important to habitat conservation and environmental restoration.Methods In this article,we report the results of a study on the habitat distribution of C.officinalis using maximum entropy(Maxent)modeling and fuzzy logics together with loganin content and environmental variables.The localities of 106 C.officinalis in China were collected by our group and other researchers and used as occurrence data.The loganin content of 234 C.officinalis germplasm resources were tested by high-performance liquid chromatography(HPLC)and used as content data.79 environmental variables were selected and processed with multicollinearity test by using Pearson Correlation Coefficient(r)to determine a set of independent variables.The chosen variables were then processed in the fuzzy linear model according to the cell values(maximum,minimum)of localities with estimated loganin content.The SDMtoolbox was used to spatially rarefy occurrence data and prepare bias files.Furthermore,combined Maxent modeling and fuzzy logics were used to predict the suitable habitat of C.officinalis.The modeling result was validated using null-model method.Important Findings As a result,six environmental factors including tmin3,prec3,bio4,alt,bio12 and bio3 were determined as key influential factors that mostly affected both the habitat suitability and active ingredient of C.officinalis.The highly suitable regions of C.officinalis mainly distribute in a‘core distribution zone’of the east-central China.The statistically significant AUC value indicated that combined Maxent modeling and fuzzy logics could be used to predict the suitable habitat distribution of medicinal plants.Furthermore,our results confirm that ecological factors played critical roles in assessing suitable geographical regions as well as active ingredient of plants,highlighting the need for effective habitat rehabilitation and resource conservation.展开更多
With their suitable habitats significantly affected by climate change and human activities,most of the seven globally recognized sea turtles are facing endangerment.In order to predict their present and future(2090−21...With their suitable habitats significantly affected by climate change and human activities,most of the seven globally recognized sea turtles are facing endangerment.In order to predict their present and future(2090−2100)potentially suitable habitats,we utilized the MaxEnt model,incorporating occurrence data for various sea turtle species and environmental datasets under current conditions,as well as under two climate scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5).Our findings showed that the key environmental variables,such as temperature and distance from shore predominantly influence the prediction on the potentially suitable habitat for sea turtles.The most highly suitable habitats for sea turtles are predominantly found in the tropical coastal waters bordering continents,including South and North America,Asia,and Australia.Under the climate scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for 2090−2100,the anticipated loss of potential suitable habitats is expected to surpass any potential gains for all sea turtle species.The Kemp’s ridley sea turtle(Lepidochelys kempii)is especially vulnerable,with its potentially suitable habitat area projected to decrease by 0.43%under SSP1-2.6 scenario to 6.15%under SSP5-8.5 scenario.In contrast,the most resilient Dermochelys coriacea is projected with a reduction of 1.02%under SSP1-2.6 and 0.57%under SSP5-8.5 in its potentially suitable habitat.These varying responses to climate change inferred the necessity for species-specific conservation strategies.However,only 9.9%of the integrated potentially suitable habitat is protected within the World Database on Protected Areas(WDPA),which suggested the extending of WDPA for more efficiency on the sea turtle conservation.展开更多
Knowledge on the potential suitability of tree species to the site is very important for forest management planning.Natural forest distribution provides a good reference for afforestation and forest restoration.In thi...Knowledge on the potential suitability of tree species to the site is very important for forest management planning.Natural forest distribution provides a good reference for afforestation and forest restoration.In this study,we developed species distribution model(SDM)for 16 major tree species with 2,825 permanent sample plots with natural origin from Chinese National Forest Inventory data collected in Jilin Province using the Maxent model.Three types of environmental factors including bioclimate,soil and topography with a total of 33 variables were tested as the input.The values of area under the curve(AUC,one of the receiver operating characteristics of the Maxent model)in the training and test datasets were between 0.784 and 0.968,indicating that the prediction results were quite reliable.The environmental factors affecting the distribution of species were ranked in terms of their importance to the species distribution.Generally,the climatic factors had the greatest contribution,which included mean diurnal range,annual mean temperature,temperature annual range,and iosthermality.But the main environmental factors varied with tree species.Distribution suitability maps under current(1950-2000)and future climate scenarios(CCSM4-RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 during 2050)were produced for 16 major tree species in Jilin Province using the model developed.The predicted current and future ranges of habitat suitability of the 16 tree species are likely to be positively and negatively affected by future climate.Seven tree species were found to benefit from future climate including B etula costata,Fraxinus mandshurica,Juglans mandshurica,Phellodendron amurense,Populus ussuriensis,Quercus mongolica and Ulmus pumila;five tree species will experience decline in their suitable habitat including B.platyphylla,Tilia mongolica,Picea asperata,Pinus sylvestris,Pinus koraiensis;and four(Salix koreensis,Abies fabri,Pinus densiflora and Larix olgensis)showed the inconsistency under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios.The maps of the habitat suitability can be used as a basis for afforestation and forest restoration in northeastern China.The SDMs could be a potential tool for forest management planning.展开更多
It is increasingly relevant to study the effects of climate change on species habitats. Using a maximum entropy model, 22 environmental factors with significant effects on sorghum habitat distribution in China were se...It is increasingly relevant to study the effects of climate change on species habitats. Using a maximum entropy model, 22 environmental factors with significant effects on sorghum habitat distribution in China were selected to predict the potential habitat distribution of sorghum in China. The potential distribution of sorghum under baseline climate conditions and future climate conditions (2050s and 2070s) under two climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were simulated, and the receiver operating curve under the accuracy of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). The results showed that the maximum entropy model predicted the potential sorghum habitat distribution with high accuracy, with Bio2 (monthly mean diurnal temperature difference), Bio6 (minimum temperature in the coldest month), and Bio13 (rainfall in the wettest month) as the main climatic factors affecting sorghum distribution among the 22 environmental factors. Under the baseline climate conditions, potential sorghum habitats are mainly distributed in the southwest, central, and east China. Over time, the potential sorghum habitat expanded into northern and southern China, with significant additions and negligible decreases in potential sorghum habitat in the study area, and a significant increase in total area, with the RCP8.5 scenario adding much more area than the RCP4.5 scenario.展开更多
Landslides are widespread geomorphological phenomena with complex mechanisms that have caused extensive causalities and property damage worldwide.The scale and frequency of landslides are presently increasing owing to...Landslides are widespread geomorphological phenomena with complex mechanisms that have caused extensive causalities and property damage worldwide.The scale and frequency of landslides are presently increasing owing to the warming effects of climate change,which further increases the associated safety risks.In this study,the relationship between historical landslides and environmental variables in the Hanjiang River Basin was determined and an optimized model was used to constrain the relative contribution of variables and best spatial response curve.The optimal MaxEnt model was used to predict the current distribution of landslides and influence of future rainfall changes on the landslide susceptibility.The results indicate that environmental variables in the study area statistically correlate with landslide events over the past 20 years.The MaxEnt model evaluation was applied to landslide hazards in the Hanjiang River Basin based on current climate change scenarios.The results indicate that 25.9%of the study area is classified as a high-risk area.The main environmental variables that affect the distribution of landslides include altitude,slope,normalized difference vegetation index,annual precipitation,distance from rivers,and distance from roads,with a cumulative contribution rate of approximately 90%.The annual rainfall in the Hanjiang River Basin will continue to increase under future climate warming scenarios.Increased rainfall will further increase the extent of high-and medium-risk areas in the basin,especially when following the RCP8.5 climate prediction,which is expected to increase the high-risk area by 10.7%by 2070.Furthermore,high landslide risk areas in the basin will migrate to high-altitude areas in the future,which poses new challenges for the prevention and control of landslide risks.This study demonstrates the usefulness of the MaxEnt model as a tool for landslide susceptibility prediction in the Hanjiang River Basin caused by global warming and yields robust prediction results.This approach therefore provides an important reference for river basin management and disaster reduction and prevention.The study on landslide risks also supports the hypothesis that global climate change will further enhance the frequency and intensity of landslide activity throughout the course of the 21st Century.展开更多
The presence of invasive plant species poses a substantial ecological impact,thus comprehensive evaluation of their potential range and risk under the influence of climate change is necessary.This study uses maximum e...The presence of invasive plant species poses a substantial ecological impact,thus comprehensive evaluation of their potential range and risk under the influence of climate change is necessary.This study uses maximum entropy(MaxEnt)modeling to forecast the likelihood of Leucaena leucocephala(Lam.)de Wit invasion in Saudi Arabia under present and future climate change scenarios.Utilizing the MaxEnt modeling,we integrated climatic and soil data to predict habitat suitability for the invasive species.We conducted a detailed analysis of the distribution patterns of the species,using climate variables and ecological factors.We focused on the important influence of temperature seasonality,temperature annual range,and precipitation seasonality.The distribution modeling used robust measures of area under the curve(AUC)and receiver-operator characteristic(ROC)curves,to map the invasion extent,which has a high level of accuracy in identifying appropriate habitats.The complex interaction that influenced the invasion of L.leucocephala was highlighted by the environmental parameters using Jackknife test.Presently,the actual geographic area where L.leucocephala was found in Saudi Arabia was considerably smaller than the theoretical maximum range,suggesting that it had the capacity to expand further.The MaxEnt model exhibited excellent prediction accuracy and produced reliable results based on the data from the ROC curve.Precipitation and temperature were the primary factors influencing the potential distribution of L.leucocephala.Currently,an estimated area of 216,342 km^(2)in Saudi Arabia was at a high probability of invasion by L.leucocephala.We investigated the potential for increased invasion hazards in the future due to climate change scenarios(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)245 and 585).The analysis of key climatic variables,including temperature seasonality and annual range,along with soil properties such as clay composition and nitrogen content,unveiled their substantial influence on the distribution dynamic of L.leucocephala.Our findings indicated a significant expansion of high risk zones.High-risk zones for L.leucocephala invasion in the current climate conditions had notable expansions projected under future climate scenarios,particularly evident in southern Makkah,Al Bahah,Madina,and Asir areas.The results,backed by thorough spatial studies,emphasize the need to reduce the possible ecological impacts of climate change on the spread of L.leucocephala.Moreover,the study provides valuable strategic insights for the management of invasion,highlighting the intricate relationship between climate change,habitat appropriateness,and the risks associated with invasive species.Proactive techniques are suggested to avoid and manage the spread of L.leucocephala,considering its high potential for future spread.This study enhances the overall comprehension of the dynamics of invasive species by combining modeling techniques with ecological knowledge.It also provides valuable information for decision-making to implement efficient conservation and management strategies in response to changing environmental conditions.展开更多
Climate change poses a serious long-term threat to biodiversity.To effectively reduce biodiversity loss,conservationists need to have a thorough understanding of the preferred habitats of species and the variables tha...Climate change poses a serious long-term threat to biodiversity.To effectively reduce biodiversity loss,conservationists need to have a thorough understanding of the preferred habitats of species and the variables that affect their distribution.Therefore,predicting the impact of climate change on speciesappropriate habitats may help mitigate the potential threats to biodiversity distribution.Xerophyta,a monocotyledonous genus of the family Velloziaceae is native to mainland Africa,Madagascar,and the Arabian Peninsula.The key drivers of Xerophyta habitat distribution and preference are unknown.Using 308 species occurrence data and eight environmental variables,the MaxEnt model was used to determine the potential distribution of six Xerophyta species in Africa under past,current and future climate change scenarios.The results showed that the models had a good predictive ability(Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistics values for all SDMs were more than 0.902),indicating high accuracy in forecasting the potential geographic distribution of Xerophyta species.The main bioclimatic variables that impacted potential distributions of most Xerophyta species were mean temperature of the driest quarter(Bio9)and precipitation of the warmest quarter(Bio18).According to our models,tropical Africa has zones of moderate and high suitability for Xerophyta taxa,which is consistent with the majority of documented species localities.The habitat suitability of the existing range of the Xerophyta species varied based on the climate scenario,with most species experiencing a range loss greater than the range gain regardless of the climate scenario.The projected spatiotemporal patterns of Xerophyta species help guide recommendations for conservation efforts.展开更多
In the context of changes in global climate and land uses,biodiversity patterns and plant species distributions have been significantly affected.Soil salinization is a growing problem,particularly in the arid areas of...In the context of changes in global climate and land uses,biodiversity patterns and plant species distributions have been significantly affected.Soil salinization is a growing problem,particularly in the arid areas of Northwest China.Halophytes are ideal for restoring soil salinization because of their adaptability to salt stress.In this study,we collected the current and future bioclimatic data released by the WorldClim database,along with soil data from the Harmonized World Soil Database(v1.2)and A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles.Using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model,the potential suitable habitats of six halophytic plant species(Halostachys caspica(Bieb.)C.A.Mey.,Halogeton glomeratus(Bieb.)C.A.Mey.,Kalidium foliatum(Pall.)Moq.,Halocnemum strobilaceum(Pall.)Bieb.,Salicornia europaea L.,and Suaeda salsa(L.)Pall.)were assessed under the current climate conditions(average for 1970-2000)and future(2050s,2070s,and 2090s)climate scenarios(SSP245 and SSP585,where SSP is the Shared Socio-economic Pathway).The results revealed that all six halophytic plant species exhibited the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values higher than 0.80 based on the MaxEnt model,indicating the excellent performance of the MaxEnt model.The suitability of the six halophytic plant species significantly varied across regions in the arid areas of Northwest China.Under different future climate change scenarios,the suitable habitat areas for the six halophytic plant species are expected to increase or decrease to varying degrees.As global warming progresses,the suitable habitat areas of K.foliatum,S.salsa,and H.strobilaceum exhibited an increasing trend.In contrast,the suitable habitat areas of H.glomeratus,S.europaea,and H.caspica showed an opposite trend.Furthermore,considering the ongoing global warming trend,the centroids of the suitable habitat areas for various halophytic plant species would migrate to different degrees,and four halophytic plant species,namely,S.salsa,H.strobilaceum,H.glomeratus,and H.capsica,would migrate to higher latitudes.Temperature,precipitation,and soil factors affected the possible distribution ranges of these six halophytic plant species.Among them,precipitation seasonality(coefficient of variation),precipitation of the warmest quarter,mean temperature of the warmest quarter,and exchangeable Na+significantly affected the distribution of halophytic plant species.Our findings are critical to comprehending and predicting the impact of climate change on ecosystems.The findings of this study hold significant theoretical and practical implications for the management of soil salinization and for the utilization,protection,and management of halophytes in the arid areas of Northwest China.展开更多
Understanding the spatial distribution of plant species and their dynamic changes in arid areas is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by climate change.Haloxylon ammodendron shelterbelts are essential for the...Understanding the spatial distribution of plant species and their dynamic changes in arid areas is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by climate change.Haloxylon ammodendron shelterbelts are essential for the protection of plant resources and the control of desertification in Central Asia.Thus far,the potential suitable habitats of H.ammodendron in Central Asia are still uncertain in the future under global climate change conditions.This study utilised the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model to combine the current distribution data of H.ammodendron with its growth-related data to analyze the potential distribution pattern of H.ammodendron across Central Asia.The results show that there are suitable habitats of H.ammodendron in the Aralkum Desert,northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains,and the upstream of the Tarim River and western edge of the Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin under the current climate conditions.The period from 2021 to 2040 is projected to undergo significant changes in the suitable habitat area of H.ammodendron in Central Asia,with a projected 15.0% decrease in the unsuitable habitat area.Inland areas farther from the ocean,such as the Caspian Sea and Aralkum Desert,will continue to experience a decrease in the suitable habitats of H.ammodendron.Regions exhibiting frequent fluctuations in the habitat suitability levels are primarily found along the axis stretching from Astana to Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik in Kazakhstan.These regions can transition into suitable habitats under varying climate conditions,requiring the implementation of appropriate human intervention measures to prevent desertification.Future climate conditions are expected to cause an eastward shift in the geometric centre of the potential suitable habitats of H.ammodendron,with the extent of this shift amplifying alongside more greenhouse gas emissions.This study can provide theoretical support for the spatial configuration of H.ammodendron shelterbelts and desertification control in Central Asia,emphasising the importance of proactive measures to adapt to climate change in the future.展开更多
Tulipa iliensis,as a wild plant resource,possesses high ornamental value and can provide abundant parental materials for tulip breeding.The objective of this research was to forecast the worldwide geographical spread ...Tulipa iliensis,as a wild plant resource,possesses high ornamental value and can provide abundant parental materials for tulip breeding.The objective of this research was to forecast the worldwide geographical spread of Tulipa iliensis by considering bioclimatic,soil,and topographic variables,the findings of this research can act as a benchmark for the conservation,management,and utilization of Tulipa iliensis as a wild plant resource.Research results indicate that all 12 models have an area under curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)values greater than 0.968 for the paleoclimatic,current,and future climate scenarios,this suggests an exceptionally high level of predictive accuracy for the models.The distribution of Tulipa iliensis is influenced by several key factors.These factors include the mean temperature of the driest quarter(Bio9),calcium carbonate content(T_CACO3),slope,precipitation of the driest month(Bio14),Basic saturation(T_BS),and precipitation of the coldest quarter(Bio19).During the three paleoclimate climate scenarios,the appropriate habitats for Tulipa iliensis showed a pattern of expansion-contraction expansion.Furthermore,the total suitable area accounted for 13.38%,12.28%,and 13.28%of the mainland area,respectively.According to the current climate scenario,the High-suitability area covers 61.78472×10^(4)km^(2),which accounts for 6.57%of the total suitable area,The Midsuitability area covers 190.0938×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for 20.2%of the total suitable area,this represents a decrease of 63.53%~67.13%compared to the suitable area of Tulipa iliensis under the paleoclimate scenario.Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)scenarios,in 2050 and 2090,Tulipa iliensis is projected to experience a decrease in the High,Mid,and Low-suitability areas under the SSP126 climate scenario by 7.10%~12.96%,2.96%~4.27%and 4.80%~7.96%,respectively.According to the SSP245 scenario,the high suitability area experienced a slight expansion of 2.26%in 2050,but a reduction of 6.32%in 2090.In the SSP370 scenario,the High-suitability areas had a larger reduction rate of 11.24%in 2050,while the Mid-suitability and Low-suitability areas had smaller expansion rates of 0.36%and 4.86%,respectively.In 2090,the High-suitability area decreased by 4.84%,while the Mid and Low-suitability areas experienced significant expansions of 15.73%and 45.89%,respectively.According to the SSP585 scenario,in the future,the High,Mid,and Low-suitability areas are projected to increase by 5.09%~7.21%,7.57%~17.66%,and 12.30%~48.98%,respectively.The research offers enhanced theoretical direction for preserving Tulipa iliensis’genetic variety amidst evolving climatic scenarios.展开更多
Haemaphysalis ticks are pathogenic vectors that threaten human and animal health and were identified in Chongming,the third largest island in China.To understand the distribution of these ticks and determine their pot...Haemaphysalis ticks are pathogenic vectors that threaten human and animal health and were identified in Chongming,the third largest island in China.To understand the distribution of these ticks and determine their potential invasion risk,this study aimed to identify the habitat suitability of the dominant tick H.flava based on natural environmental factors.Geographic information system(GIS)images were combined with sample points from tick investigations to map the spatial distribution of H.flava.Data on 19 bioclimatic variables,environmental variables,and satellite-based landscapes of Chongming Island were retrieved to create a landcover map related to natural environmental determinants of H.flava.These data included 38 sites associated with the vectors to construct species distribution models with MaxEnt,a model based on the maximum entropy principle,and to predict habitat suitability for H.flava on Chongming Island in 2050 and 2070 under different climate scenarios.The model performed well in predicting the H.flava distribution,with a training area under the curve of 0.84 and a test area under the curve of 0.73.A habitat suitability map of the whole study area was created for H.flava.The resulting map and natural environment analysis highlighted the importance of the normalized difference vegetation index and precipitation in the driest month for the bioecology of H.flava,with 141.61 km^(2)(11.77%),282.94 km^(2)(23.35%),and 405.30 km^(2)(33.69%)of highly,moderately,and poorly suitable habitats,respectively.The distribution decreased by 135.55 km^(2) and 138.82 km^(2) in 2050 and 2070,respectively,under the shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)1.2.6 climate change scenario.However,under SSP 5.8.5,the total area will decrease by 128.5 km^(2) in 2050 and increase by 151.64 km^(2) in 2070.From a One Health perspective,this study provides good knowledge that will guide tick control efforts to prevent the spread of Haemaphysalis ticks or transmission risk of Haemaphysalis-borne infections at the human-animal-environment interface on the island.展开更多
Predictive potential distribution modeling is crucial in outlining habitat usage and establishing conservation management priorities. In this paper we provide detailed data on the distribution of the Caucasian rock ag...Predictive potential distribution modeling is crucial in outlining habitat usage and establishing conservation management priorities. In this paper we provide detailed data on the distribution of the Caucasian rock agama Para- laudakia caucasia, and use species distribution models （MAXENT） to evaluate environmental suitability and potential distribution at a broad spatial scale. Locality data on the distribution of P. caucasia have been gathered over nearly its entire range by various authors from field surveys. The distribution model ofP caucasia showed good performance （AUC = 0.887）, and predicted high suitability in regions mainly located in Tajikistan, north Pakistan, Afghanistan, southeast Turkmenistan, northeast Iran along the Elburz mountains, Transcaueasus （Azerbajan, Armenia, Georgia）, northeastern Turkey and northward along the Caspian Sea coast in Daghestan, Russia. The identification of suitable areas for this species will help to assess conservation status of the species, and to set up management programs.展开更多
Modeling the potential distribution areas for a given species is important in understanding the relationship between the actual distribution and the most suitable habitat for a species. In this study, we obtained all ...Modeling the potential distribution areas for a given species is important in understanding the relationship between the actual distribution and the most suitable habitat for a species. In this study, we obtained all available records of Trapelus ruderatus and Trapelus persicus from museums, literature and fieldwork and used them with environmental layers in the Maximum Entropy algorithm to predict highly suitable habitat areas. The distribution model of T. ruderatus and T. persicus showed excellent performance for both models （T. ruderatus AUC = 0.964 ± 0.001 and T. persicus AUC = 0.996 ± 0.003）, and predicted suitable regions in Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Syria. Niche overlap was measured between the two groups by ENMtools and 13% overlapped. We used a niche identity test to determine differences between the niches of the two species. Finally, by comparing our null hypothesis to the true niche overlap of the two species, we were able to reject our null hypothesis of no difference between the niches. Due to the sympatric distribution pattern of these species, we do not need a background test for niche divergence.展开更多
Habitat loss and fragmentation of the wildlife species due to anthropogenic developments have been becoming serious issues in biological conservation. Alborz wild sheep, listed as threatened by IUCN, is distributed in...Habitat loss and fragmentation of the wildlife species due to anthropogenic developments have been becoming serious issues in biological conservation. Alborz wild sheep, listed as threatened by IUCN, is distributed in relatively small and isolated patches in an increasingly human dominated landscape in the north-central Iran and east of Tehran. We used maximum entropy modeling to identify habitat areas of the wild sheep, across Jajrud protected area and its neighbouring protected areas including varjin, lar, koohsefid and the surroundings. Regarding to seasonal variation of the species home range, winter, summer and multi seasonal (annual) habitats were predicted. To estimate habitat connectivity, we used models of connectivity based in electrical circuit theory. Applying core areas of multi season for connectivity analysis, movement pattern of the species was predicted and important connective areas for conservation were identified. Species distribution maps revealed that the summer and winter habitats were approximately occurred in similar areas. Distance to eco-guards’ post was the most important predictor for both habitat models of summer and winter. The annual model, which is a combination of summer and winter, shows that the largest suitable habitat patches are located in the north, south and west of the study area. Maximum current flow map demonstrates that the areas among patch pairs are covered in low current, reflecting low rates of the species dispersal. This map presented bottlenecks to the species movement across major roads and along extending human settlements. Cumulative current flow map displayed that current was highest in Jajrud north of Mamloo extending to the northern Jajrud. Overall, our study demonstrated a prediction of habitat suitability and connectivity for Alborz wild sheep in east of Tehran, which can be used to direct conservation endeavours dealing with maintenance of the wild sheep metapopulation dynamics.展开更多
Carex tussock plays an important role in supporting biodiversity and carbon sequestration of wetland ecosystems,while it is highly threatened by climate change and anthropogenic activities.Therefore,identifying the po...Carex tussock plays an important role in supporting biodiversity and carbon sequestration of wetland ecosystems,while it is highly threatened by climate change and anthropogenic activities.Therefore,identifying the potential distribution patterns of Carex tussocks wetland is vital for their targeted conservation and restoration.The current and future(2050s and 2070s)potential habitats distribution of Carex tussocks in Northeast China were predicted using a Maximum Entropy(Maxent)model based on 68 current data of Carex tussock distributions and three groups of environmental variables(bioclimate,topography,soil properties).Results show that isothermality,seasonal precipitation variability and altitude are important factors that determine the distribution of Carex tussock.The high suitable habitat of Carex tussock is about 5.7×10^(4)km^(2) and mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain,Songnen Plain,Changbai Mountains and Da Hinggan Mountains.The area of stable habitats of Carex tussock is significantly higher than the lost and expanded habitats in the future climate scenarios,and the unsuitable habitats mainly occur in Da Hinggan Mountains,Xiao Hinggan Mountains and Changbai Mountains.Overall,Carex tussock wetlands at high altitude and high latitude are more sensitive to climate change,and more attention should be invested in high latitude and high altitude areas.展开更多
Global food security is threatened by the impacts of the spread of crop pests and changes in the complex interactions between crops and pests under climate change.Schrankia costaestrigalis is a newly-reported potato p...Global food security is threatened by the impacts of the spread of crop pests and changes in the complex interactions between crops and pests under climate change.Schrankia costaestrigalis is a newly-reported potato pest in southern China.Early-warning monitoring of this insect pest could protect domestic agriculture as it has already caused regional yield reduction and/or quality decline in potato production.Our research aimed to confirm the potential geographical distributions(PGDs)of S.costaestrigalis in China under different climate scenarios using an optimal MaxEnt model,and to provide baseline data for preventing agricultural damage by S.costaestrigalis.Our findings indicated that the accuracy of the optimal MaxEnt model was better than the default-setting model,and the minimum temperature of the coldest month,precipitation of the driest month,precipitation of the coldest quarter,and the human influence index were the variables significantly affecting the PGDs of S.costaestrigalis.The highly-and moderately-suitable habitats of S.costaestrigalis were mainly located in eastern and southern China.The PGDs of S.costaestrigalis in China will decrease under climate change.The conversion of the highly-to moderately-suitable habitat will also be significant under climate change.The centroid of the suitable habitat area of S.costaestrigalis under the current climate showed a general tendency to move northeast and to the middle-high latitudes in the 2030s.The agricultural practice of plastic film mulching in potato fields will provide a favorable microclimate for S.costaestrigalis in the suitable areas.More attention should be paid to the early warning and monitoring of S.costaestrigalis in order to prevent its further spread in the main areas in China’s winter potato planting regions.展开更多
The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis...The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis of equilibrium points without any reference to when or how to achieve it. In this paper, a dynamic gravity model was established based on the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) theory to estimate and monitor the interconnection intensity and dynamic characters of bilateral relations. In order to detect the determinants of interconnection intensity, a Geodetector method was applied to identify and evaluate the determinants of spatial networks in five dimensions. The empirical study clearly demonstrates a heterogeneous and non-circular spatial structure. The main driving forces of spatial-temporal evolution are foreign direct investment, tourism and railway infrastructure construction, while determinants in different sub-regions show obvious spatial differentiation. Southeast Asian countries are typically multi-island area where aviation infrastructure plays a more important role. North and Central Asian countries regard oil as a pillar industry where power and port facilities have a greater impact on the interconnection. While Western Asian countries are mostly influenced by the railway infrastructure, Eastern European countries already have relatively robust infrastructure where tariff policies provide a greater impetus.展开更多
The Liaoning clawed salamander(Onychodactylus zhaoermii)is an endemic and critically endangered amphibian species of China.To study the population genetics of natural populations of this species,32 samples were collec...The Liaoning clawed salamander(Onychodactylus zhaoermii)is an endemic and critically endangered amphibian species of China.To study the population genetics of natural populations of this species,32 samples were collected from six different locations,and the mitochondrial genome was sequenced.Population genetic analyses showed that the Liaoning clawed salamander is composed of only one radialized cluster with ultralow nucleotide diversity.Late Pleistocene climate cooling(-100 to-30 kya)may have reduced the effective population size of the Liaoning clawed salamander,and the subsequent temperature increase(~25 kya to present)provided the opportunity for population expansion.Because of heat sensitivity,the maximum temperature of the prebreeding period,especially from March to May,is very important for the surface environment living in the Liaoning clawed salamander.Three suitable regions were predicted by the MaxEnt model,and the largest suitable region(approximately 899 km2)was at the four-county boundary area and was larger than the present’Natural Conservation Community of the Liaoning Clawed Salamander’.To ensure more effective protection of all Liaoning clawed salamanders,we suggest extending the current’Natural Conservation Community of the Liaoning Clawed Salamander’to include the four-county boundary area.展开更多
Abundance and distribution of jumbo flying squid(Dosidicus gigas)are evidently influenced by the changes of marine environment.In this study,the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model was applied to examine the impacts of marin...Abundance and distribution of jumbo flying squid(Dosidicus gigas)are evidently influenced by the changes of marine environment.In this study,the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model was applied to examine the impacts of marine environmental variables on its potential distribution,and identified habitat hotspots of D.gigas in summer and autumn along the coast of Chile.The MaxEnt model was constructed by using the fisheries data of D.gigas from summer to autumn during 2011–2017 combined with critical environmental factors including mixed layer depth(MLD),sea surface salinity(SSS),sea surface height(SSH)and water temperature at depths of 0 m,25 m,50 m,100 m,150 m,200 m,300 m,400 m and 500 m.Results showed that the actual fishing efforts of D.gigas in summer and autumn were mostly distributed in the suitable habitat,indicating that the MaxEnt model can well predict the habitat hotspots of D.gigas off Chile.The key environmental factors and their suitable ranges for D.gigas showed significant intermonthly changes from December to May.The critical environmental factors of D.gigas off Chile were MLD,SSH,water temperature at different depths in summer(Temp_25 m in December,Temp_300 m in January and Temp_400 m in February)and SSH,SSS,Temp_400 m in autumn.Our findings suggest that selecting the key environmental factors is vital to study the potential distribution of D.gigas off Chile in each month to explore its habitat hotspots.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(31100241 to C.K.B.)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(GK201402025 to C.K.B.)+3 种基金Shaanxi Science and Technology Plan Project(2011K16-02-05 to C.K.B.)Xi’an Technology Plan Project(NC1116(1)to C.K.B.)Project of Co-Innovation Center for Qinba regions’sustainable development(CIC-QBRSD to C.K.B.)Innovation Funds of Graduate Programs of Shaanxi Normal University(2013CXS017 to B.C.).
文摘Aims Predicting suitable habitat distribution is an effective way to protect rare or endangered medicinal plants.Cornus officinalis is a perennial tree growing in forest edge and its air-dried pericarp is one of the traditional Chinese medicines(TCM)with significant medicinal values.In recent years,C.officinalis has undergone severe degeneration of its natural habitat owing to growing market demands and unprecedented damage to the forests.Moreover,the degeneration of suitable habitat has threatened the supply of medicinal materials,and even led to the extinction of some engendered medicinal plant species.In this case,there is a great risk to introduce and cultivate medicinal plants if planners determine the suitable cultivation regions based on personal subjective experience alone.Therefore,predicting suitable potential habitat distribution of medicinal plants(e.g.C.officinalis)and revealing the environmental factors determining such distribution patterns are important to habitat conservation and environmental restoration.Methods In this article,we report the results of a study on the habitat distribution of C.officinalis using maximum entropy(Maxent)modeling and fuzzy logics together with loganin content and environmental variables.The localities of 106 C.officinalis in China were collected by our group and other researchers and used as occurrence data.The loganin content of 234 C.officinalis germplasm resources were tested by high-performance liquid chromatography(HPLC)and used as content data.79 environmental variables were selected and processed with multicollinearity test by using Pearson Correlation Coefficient(r)to determine a set of independent variables.The chosen variables were then processed in the fuzzy linear model according to the cell values(maximum,minimum)of localities with estimated loganin content.The SDMtoolbox was used to spatially rarefy occurrence data and prepare bias files.Furthermore,combined Maxent modeling and fuzzy logics were used to predict the suitable habitat of C.officinalis.The modeling result was validated using null-model method.Important Findings As a result,six environmental factors including tmin3,prec3,bio4,alt,bio12 and bio3 were determined as key influential factors that mostly affected both the habitat suitability and active ingredient of C.officinalis.The highly suitable regions of C.officinalis mainly distribute in a‘core distribution zone’of the east-central China.The statistically significant AUC value indicated that combined Maxent modeling and fuzzy logics could be used to predict the suitable habitat distribution of medicinal plants.Furthermore,our results confirm that ecological factors played critical roles in assessing suitable geographical regions as well as active ingredient of plants,highlighting the need for effective habitat rehabilitation and resource conservation.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2023YFC2811400.
文摘With their suitable habitats significantly affected by climate change and human activities,most of the seven globally recognized sea turtles are facing endangerment.In order to predict their present and future(2090−2100)potentially suitable habitats,we utilized the MaxEnt model,incorporating occurrence data for various sea turtle species and environmental datasets under current conditions,as well as under two climate scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5).Our findings showed that the key environmental variables,such as temperature and distance from shore predominantly influence the prediction on the potentially suitable habitat for sea turtles.The most highly suitable habitats for sea turtles are predominantly found in the tropical coastal waters bordering continents,including South and North America,Asia,and Australia.Under the climate scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for 2090−2100,the anticipated loss of potential suitable habitats is expected to surpass any potential gains for all sea turtle species.The Kemp’s ridley sea turtle(Lepidochelys kempii)is especially vulnerable,with its potentially suitable habitat area projected to decrease by 0.43%under SSP1-2.6 scenario to 6.15%under SSP5-8.5 scenario.In contrast,the most resilient Dermochelys coriacea is projected with a reduction of 1.02%under SSP1-2.6 and 0.57%under SSP5-8.5 in its potentially suitable habitat.These varying responses to climate change inferred the necessity for species-specific conservation strategies.However,only 9.9%of the integrated potentially suitable habitat is protected within the World Database on Protected Areas(WDPA),which suggested the extending of WDPA for more efficiency on the sea turtle conservation.
基金supported by the forestry public welfare scientific research project(Grant No.201504303)。
文摘Knowledge on the potential suitability of tree species to the site is very important for forest management planning.Natural forest distribution provides a good reference for afforestation and forest restoration.In this study,we developed species distribution model(SDM)for 16 major tree species with 2,825 permanent sample plots with natural origin from Chinese National Forest Inventory data collected in Jilin Province using the Maxent model.Three types of environmental factors including bioclimate,soil and topography with a total of 33 variables were tested as the input.The values of area under the curve(AUC,one of the receiver operating characteristics of the Maxent model)in the training and test datasets were between 0.784 and 0.968,indicating that the prediction results were quite reliable.The environmental factors affecting the distribution of species were ranked in terms of their importance to the species distribution.Generally,the climatic factors had the greatest contribution,which included mean diurnal range,annual mean temperature,temperature annual range,and iosthermality.But the main environmental factors varied with tree species.Distribution suitability maps under current(1950-2000)and future climate scenarios(CCSM4-RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 during 2050)were produced for 16 major tree species in Jilin Province using the model developed.The predicted current and future ranges of habitat suitability of the 16 tree species are likely to be positively and negatively affected by future climate.Seven tree species were found to benefit from future climate including B etula costata,Fraxinus mandshurica,Juglans mandshurica,Phellodendron amurense,Populus ussuriensis,Quercus mongolica and Ulmus pumila;five tree species will experience decline in their suitable habitat including B.platyphylla,Tilia mongolica,Picea asperata,Pinus sylvestris,Pinus koraiensis;and four(Salix koreensis,Abies fabri,Pinus densiflora and Larix olgensis)showed the inconsistency under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios.The maps of the habitat suitability can be used as a basis for afforestation and forest restoration in northeastern China.The SDMs could be a potential tool for forest management planning.
文摘It is increasingly relevant to study the effects of climate change on species habitats. Using a maximum entropy model, 22 environmental factors with significant effects on sorghum habitat distribution in China were selected to predict the potential habitat distribution of sorghum in China. The potential distribution of sorghum under baseline climate conditions and future climate conditions (2050s and 2070s) under two climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were simulated, and the receiver operating curve under the accuracy of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). The results showed that the maximum entropy model predicted the potential sorghum habitat distribution with high accuracy, with Bio2 (monthly mean diurnal temperature difference), Bio6 (minimum temperature in the coldest month), and Bio13 (rainfall in the wettest month) as the main climatic factors affecting sorghum distribution among the 22 environmental factors. Under the baseline climate conditions, potential sorghum habitats are mainly distributed in the southwest, central, and east China. Over time, the potential sorghum habitat expanded into northern and southern China, with significant additions and negligible decreases in potential sorghum habitat in the study area, and a significant increase in total area, with the RCP8.5 scenario adding much more area than the RCP4.5 scenario.
基金funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)National Foundation of Forestry Science and Technology Popularization(No.[2015]17)Major Fund for Natural Science of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(No.15KJA220004).
文摘Landslides are widespread geomorphological phenomena with complex mechanisms that have caused extensive causalities and property damage worldwide.The scale and frequency of landslides are presently increasing owing to the warming effects of climate change,which further increases the associated safety risks.In this study,the relationship between historical landslides and environmental variables in the Hanjiang River Basin was determined and an optimized model was used to constrain the relative contribution of variables and best spatial response curve.The optimal MaxEnt model was used to predict the current distribution of landslides and influence of future rainfall changes on the landslide susceptibility.The results indicate that environmental variables in the study area statistically correlate with landslide events over the past 20 years.The MaxEnt model evaluation was applied to landslide hazards in the Hanjiang River Basin based on current climate change scenarios.The results indicate that 25.9%of the study area is classified as a high-risk area.The main environmental variables that affect the distribution of landslides include altitude,slope,normalized difference vegetation index,annual precipitation,distance from rivers,and distance from roads,with a cumulative contribution rate of approximately 90%.The annual rainfall in the Hanjiang River Basin will continue to increase under future climate warming scenarios.Increased rainfall will further increase the extent of high-and medium-risk areas in the basin,especially when following the RCP8.5 climate prediction,which is expected to increase the high-risk area by 10.7%by 2070.Furthermore,high landslide risk areas in the basin will migrate to high-altitude areas in the future,which poses new challenges for the prevention and control of landslide risks.This study demonstrates the usefulness of the MaxEnt model as a tool for landslide susceptibility prediction in the Hanjiang River Basin caused by global warming and yields robust prediction results.This approach therefore provides an important reference for river basin management and disaster reduction and prevention.The study on landslide risks also supports the hypothesis that global climate change will further enhance the frequency and intensity of landslide activity throughout the course of the 21st Century.
基金the Researchers Supporting Project(RSP2024R347),King Saud University,Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.
文摘The presence of invasive plant species poses a substantial ecological impact,thus comprehensive evaluation of their potential range and risk under the influence of climate change is necessary.This study uses maximum entropy(MaxEnt)modeling to forecast the likelihood of Leucaena leucocephala(Lam.)de Wit invasion in Saudi Arabia under present and future climate change scenarios.Utilizing the MaxEnt modeling,we integrated climatic and soil data to predict habitat suitability for the invasive species.We conducted a detailed analysis of the distribution patterns of the species,using climate variables and ecological factors.We focused on the important influence of temperature seasonality,temperature annual range,and precipitation seasonality.The distribution modeling used robust measures of area under the curve(AUC)and receiver-operator characteristic(ROC)curves,to map the invasion extent,which has a high level of accuracy in identifying appropriate habitats.The complex interaction that influenced the invasion of L.leucocephala was highlighted by the environmental parameters using Jackknife test.Presently,the actual geographic area where L.leucocephala was found in Saudi Arabia was considerably smaller than the theoretical maximum range,suggesting that it had the capacity to expand further.The MaxEnt model exhibited excellent prediction accuracy and produced reliable results based on the data from the ROC curve.Precipitation and temperature were the primary factors influencing the potential distribution of L.leucocephala.Currently,an estimated area of 216,342 km^(2)in Saudi Arabia was at a high probability of invasion by L.leucocephala.We investigated the potential for increased invasion hazards in the future due to climate change scenarios(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)245 and 585).The analysis of key climatic variables,including temperature seasonality and annual range,along with soil properties such as clay composition and nitrogen content,unveiled their substantial influence on the distribution dynamic of L.leucocephala.Our findings indicated a significant expansion of high risk zones.High-risk zones for L.leucocephala invasion in the current climate conditions had notable expansions projected under future climate scenarios,particularly evident in southern Makkah,Al Bahah,Madina,and Asir areas.The results,backed by thorough spatial studies,emphasize the need to reduce the possible ecological impacts of climate change on the spread of L.leucocephala.Moreover,the study provides valuable strategic insights for the management of invasion,highlighting the intricate relationship between climate change,habitat appropriateness,and the risks associated with invasive species.Proactive techniques are suggested to avoid and manage the spread of L.leucocephala,considering its high potential for future spread.This study enhances the overall comprehension of the dynamics of invasive species by combining modeling techniques with ecological knowledge.It also provides valuable information for decision-making to implement efficient conservation and management strategies in response to changing environmental conditions.
基金supported by grants from the International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (151853KYSB20190027)Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, CAS (SAJC202101)The ANSO Scholarship for Young Talents, PhD Fellowship Program University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
文摘Climate change poses a serious long-term threat to biodiversity.To effectively reduce biodiversity loss,conservationists need to have a thorough understanding of the preferred habitats of species and the variables that affect their distribution.Therefore,predicting the impact of climate change on speciesappropriate habitats may help mitigate the potential threats to biodiversity distribution.Xerophyta,a monocotyledonous genus of the family Velloziaceae is native to mainland Africa,Madagascar,and the Arabian Peninsula.The key drivers of Xerophyta habitat distribution and preference are unknown.Using 308 species occurrence data and eight environmental variables,the MaxEnt model was used to determine the potential distribution of six Xerophyta species in Africa under past,current and future climate change scenarios.The results showed that the models had a good predictive ability(Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistics values for all SDMs were more than 0.902),indicating high accuracy in forecasting the potential geographic distribution of Xerophyta species.The main bioclimatic variables that impacted potential distributions of most Xerophyta species were mean temperature of the driest quarter(Bio9)and precipitation of the warmest quarter(Bio18).According to our models,tropical Africa has zones of moderate and high suitability for Xerophyta taxa,which is consistent with the majority of documented species localities.The habitat suitability of the existing range of the Xerophyta species varied based on the climate scenario,with most species experiencing a range loss greater than the range gain regardless of the climate scenario.The projected spatiotemporal patterns of Xerophyta species help guide recommendations for conservation efforts.
基金supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program (2022xjkk1205)the Tianshan Talent Training Program (2023TSYCTD0084)+2 种基金the Science and Technology Major Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2023A01002)the Young Top Talents of Xinjiang Normal University (XJNUQB2022-29)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2020437)
文摘In the context of changes in global climate and land uses,biodiversity patterns and plant species distributions have been significantly affected.Soil salinization is a growing problem,particularly in the arid areas of Northwest China.Halophytes are ideal for restoring soil salinization because of their adaptability to salt stress.In this study,we collected the current and future bioclimatic data released by the WorldClim database,along with soil data from the Harmonized World Soil Database(v1.2)and A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles.Using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model,the potential suitable habitats of six halophytic plant species(Halostachys caspica(Bieb.)C.A.Mey.,Halogeton glomeratus(Bieb.)C.A.Mey.,Kalidium foliatum(Pall.)Moq.,Halocnemum strobilaceum(Pall.)Bieb.,Salicornia europaea L.,and Suaeda salsa(L.)Pall.)were assessed under the current climate conditions(average for 1970-2000)and future(2050s,2070s,and 2090s)climate scenarios(SSP245 and SSP585,where SSP is the Shared Socio-economic Pathway).The results revealed that all six halophytic plant species exhibited the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values higher than 0.80 based on the MaxEnt model,indicating the excellent performance of the MaxEnt model.The suitability of the six halophytic plant species significantly varied across regions in the arid areas of Northwest China.Under different future climate change scenarios,the suitable habitat areas for the six halophytic plant species are expected to increase or decrease to varying degrees.As global warming progresses,the suitable habitat areas of K.foliatum,S.salsa,and H.strobilaceum exhibited an increasing trend.In contrast,the suitable habitat areas of H.glomeratus,S.europaea,and H.caspica showed an opposite trend.Furthermore,considering the ongoing global warming trend,the centroids of the suitable habitat areas for various halophytic plant species would migrate to different degrees,and four halophytic plant species,namely,S.salsa,H.strobilaceum,H.glomeratus,and H.capsica,would migrate to higher latitudes.Temperature,precipitation,and soil factors affected the possible distribution ranges of these six halophytic plant species.Among them,precipitation seasonality(coefficient of variation),precipitation of the warmest quarter,mean temperature of the warmest quarter,and exchangeable Na+significantly affected the distribution of halophytic plant species.Our findings are critical to comprehending and predicting the impact of climate change on ecosystems.The findings of this study hold significant theoretical and practical implications for the management of soil salinization and for the utilization,protection,and management of halophytes in the arid areas of Northwest China.
基金supported by the the Basic Frontier Project of Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences(E3500201)the Xinjiang Tianshan Talent Program(2022TSYCLJ0002)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(ZY20240223).
文摘Understanding the spatial distribution of plant species and their dynamic changes in arid areas is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by climate change.Haloxylon ammodendron shelterbelts are essential for the protection of plant resources and the control of desertification in Central Asia.Thus far,the potential suitable habitats of H.ammodendron in Central Asia are still uncertain in the future under global climate change conditions.This study utilised the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model to combine the current distribution data of H.ammodendron with its growth-related data to analyze the potential distribution pattern of H.ammodendron across Central Asia.The results show that there are suitable habitats of H.ammodendron in the Aralkum Desert,northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains,and the upstream of the Tarim River and western edge of the Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin under the current climate conditions.The period from 2021 to 2040 is projected to undergo significant changes in the suitable habitat area of H.ammodendron in Central Asia,with a projected 15.0% decrease in the unsuitable habitat area.Inland areas farther from the ocean,such as the Caspian Sea and Aralkum Desert,will continue to experience a decrease in the suitable habitats of H.ammodendron.Regions exhibiting frequent fluctuations in the habitat suitability levels are primarily found along the axis stretching from Astana to Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik in Kazakhstan.These regions can transition into suitable habitats under varying climate conditions,requiring the implementation of appropriate human intervention measures to prevent desertification.Future climate conditions are expected to cause an eastward shift in the geometric centre of the potential suitable habitats of H.ammodendron,with the extent of this shift amplifying alongside more greenhouse gas emissions.This study can provide theoretical support for the spatial configuration of H.ammodendron shelterbelts and desertification control in Central Asia,emphasising the importance of proactive measures to adapt to climate change in the future.
文摘Tulipa iliensis,as a wild plant resource,possesses high ornamental value and can provide abundant parental materials for tulip breeding.The objective of this research was to forecast the worldwide geographical spread of Tulipa iliensis by considering bioclimatic,soil,and topographic variables,the findings of this research can act as a benchmark for the conservation,management,and utilization of Tulipa iliensis as a wild plant resource.Research results indicate that all 12 models have an area under curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)values greater than 0.968 for the paleoclimatic,current,and future climate scenarios,this suggests an exceptionally high level of predictive accuracy for the models.The distribution of Tulipa iliensis is influenced by several key factors.These factors include the mean temperature of the driest quarter(Bio9),calcium carbonate content(T_CACO3),slope,precipitation of the driest month(Bio14),Basic saturation(T_BS),and precipitation of the coldest quarter(Bio19).During the three paleoclimate climate scenarios,the appropriate habitats for Tulipa iliensis showed a pattern of expansion-contraction expansion.Furthermore,the total suitable area accounted for 13.38%,12.28%,and 13.28%of the mainland area,respectively.According to the current climate scenario,the High-suitability area covers 61.78472×10^(4)km^(2),which accounts for 6.57%of the total suitable area,The Midsuitability area covers 190.0938×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for 20.2%of the total suitable area,this represents a decrease of 63.53%~67.13%compared to the suitable area of Tulipa iliensis under the paleoclimate scenario.Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)scenarios,in 2050 and 2090,Tulipa iliensis is projected to experience a decrease in the High,Mid,and Low-suitability areas under the SSP126 climate scenario by 7.10%~12.96%,2.96%~4.27%and 4.80%~7.96%,respectively.According to the SSP245 scenario,the high suitability area experienced a slight expansion of 2.26%in 2050,but a reduction of 6.32%in 2090.In the SSP370 scenario,the High-suitability areas had a larger reduction rate of 11.24%in 2050,while the Mid-suitability and Low-suitability areas had smaller expansion rates of 0.36%and 4.86%,respectively.In 2090,the High-suitability area decreased by 4.84%,while the Mid and Low-suitability areas experienced significant expansions of 15.73%and 45.89%,respectively.According to the SSP585 scenario,in the future,the High,Mid,and Low-suitability areas are projected to increase by 5.09%~7.21%,7.57%~17.66%,and 12.30%~48.98%,respectively.The research offers enhanced theoretical direction for preserving Tulipa iliensis’genetic variety amidst evolving climatic scenarios.
基金supported in part by The International Joint Laboratory on Tropical Diseases Control in the Greater Mekong Subregion fund(21410750200)the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai,China and The Science and Technology Innovation Project fund of the School of Global Health,Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine(SGHKJCX2021-05,SGHKJCX2021-04),China.
文摘Haemaphysalis ticks are pathogenic vectors that threaten human and animal health and were identified in Chongming,the third largest island in China.To understand the distribution of these ticks and determine their potential invasion risk,this study aimed to identify the habitat suitability of the dominant tick H.flava based on natural environmental factors.Geographic information system(GIS)images were combined with sample points from tick investigations to map the spatial distribution of H.flava.Data on 19 bioclimatic variables,environmental variables,and satellite-based landscapes of Chongming Island were retrieved to create a landcover map related to natural environmental determinants of H.flava.These data included 38 sites associated with the vectors to construct species distribution models with MaxEnt,a model based on the maximum entropy principle,and to predict habitat suitability for H.flava on Chongming Island in 2050 and 2070 under different climate scenarios.The model performed well in predicting the H.flava distribution,with a training area under the curve of 0.84 and a test area under the curve of 0.73.A habitat suitability map of the whole study area was created for H.flava.The resulting map and natural environment analysis highlighted the importance of the normalized difference vegetation index and precipitation in the driest month for the bioecology of H.flava,with 141.61 km^(2)(11.77%),282.94 km^(2)(23.35%),and 405.30 km^(2)(33.69%)of highly,moderately,and poorly suitable habitats,respectively.The distribution decreased by 135.55 km^(2) and 138.82 km^(2) in 2050 and 2070,respectively,under the shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)1.2.6 climate change scenario.However,under SSP 5.8.5,the total area will decrease by 128.5 km^(2) in 2050 and increase by 151.64 km^(2) in 2070.From a One Health perspective,this study provides good knowledge that will guide tick control efforts to prevent the spread of Haemaphysalis ticks or transmission risk of Haemaphysalis-borne infections at the human-animal-environment interface on the island.
基金funded by a scholarship at the University Milano-Bicocca,Italysupported by grants from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research to NBA(Project 12-04-00057)the Scientific School Support Program(NSh-6560.2012)
文摘Predictive potential distribution modeling is crucial in outlining habitat usage and establishing conservation management priorities. In this paper we provide detailed data on the distribution of the Caucasian rock agama Para- laudakia caucasia, and use species distribution models （MAXENT） to evaluate environmental suitability and potential distribution at a broad spatial scale. Locality data on the distribution of P. caucasia have been gathered over nearly its entire range by various authors from field surveys. The distribution model ofP caucasia showed good performance （AUC = 0.887）, and predicted high suitability in regions mainly located in Tajikistan, north Pakistan, Afghanistan, southeast Turkmenistan, northeast Iran along the Elburz mountains, Transcaueasus （Azerbajan, Armenia, Georgia）, northeastern Turkey and northward along the Caspian Sea coast in Daghestan, Russia. The identification of suitable areas for this species will help to assess conservation status of the species, and to set up management programs.
文摘Modeling the potential distribution areas for a given species is important in understanding the relationship between the actual distribution and the most suitable habitat for a species. In this study, we obtained all available records of Trapelus ruderatus and Trapelus persicus from museums, literature and fieldwork and used them with environmental layers in the Maximum Entropy algorithm to predict highly suitable habitat areas. The distribution model of T. ruderatus and T. persicus showed excellent performance for both models （T. ruderatus AUC = 0.964 ± 0.001 and T. persicus AUC = 0.996 ± 0.003）, and predicted suitable regions in Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Syria. Niche overlap was measured between the two groups by ENMtools and 13% overlapped. We used a niche identity test to determine differences between the niches of the two species. Finally, by comparing our null hypothesis to the true niche overlap of the two species, we were able to reject our null hypothesis of no difference between the niches. Due to the sympatric distribution pattern of these species, we do not need a background test for niche divergence.
文摘Habitat loss and fragmentation of the wildlife species due to anthropogenic developments have been becoming serious issues in biological conservation. Alborz wild sheep, listed as threatened by IUCN, is distributed in relatively small and isolated patches in an increasingly human dominated landscape in the north-central Iran and east of Tehran. We used maximum entropy modeling to identify habitat areas of the wild sheep, across Jajrud protected area and its neighbouring protected areas including varjin, lar, koohsefid and the surroundings. Regarding to seasonal variation of the species home range, winter, summer and multi seasonal (annual) habitats were predicted. To estimate habitat connectivity, we used models of connectivity based in electrical circuit theory. Applying core areas of multi season for connectivity analysis, movement pattern of the species was predicted and important connective areas for conservation were identified. Species distribution maps revealed that the summer and winter habitats were approximately occurred in similar areas. Distance to eco-guards’ post was the most important predictor for both habitat models of summer and winter. The annual model, which is a combination of summer and winter, shows that the largest suitable habitat patches are located in the north, south and west of the study area. Maximum current flow map demonstrates that the areas among patch pairs are covered in low current, reflecting low rates of the species dispersal. This map presented bottlenecks to the species movement across major roads and along extending human settlements. Cumulative current flow map displayed that current was highest in Jajrud north of Mamloo extending to the northern Jajrud. Overall, our study demonstrated a prediction of habitat suitability and connectivity for Alborz wild sheep in east of Tehran, which can be used to direct conservation endeavours dealing with maintenance of the wild sheep metapopulation dynamics.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41871101)the Science and Technology Development Project of Jilin Province(No.20190201115JC)the‘Strategic Priority Research Program’of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA23060402)。
文摘Carex tussock plays an important role in supporting biodiversity and carbon sequestration of wetland ecosystems,while it is highly threatened by climate change and anthropogenic activities.Therefore,identifying the potential distribution patterns of Carex tussocks wetland is vital for their targeted conservation and restoration.The current and future(2050s and 2070s)potential habitats distribution of Carex tussocks in Northeast China were predicted using a Maximum Entropy(Maxent)model based on 68 current data of Carex tussock distributions and three groups of environmental variables(bioclimate,topography,soil properties).Results show that isothermality,seasonal precipitation variability and altitude are important factors that determine the distribution of Carex tussock.The high suitable habitat of Carex tussock is about 5.7×10^(4)km^(2) and mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain,Songnen Plain,Changbai Mountains and Da Hinggan Mountains.The area of stable habitats of Carex tussock is significantly higher than the lost and expanded habitats in the future climate scenarios,and the unsuitable habitats mainly occur in Da Hinggan Mountains,Xiao Hinggan Mountains and Changbai Mountains.Overall,Carex tussock wetlands at high altitude and high latitude are more sensitive to climate change,and more attention should be invested in high latitude and high altitude areas.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFC2600400 and 2021YFD1400100)。
文摘Global food security is threatened by the impacts of the spread of crop pests and changes in the complex interactions between crops and pests under climate change.Schrankia costaestrigalis is a newly-reported potato pest in southern China.Early-warning monitoring of this insect pest could protect domestic agriculture as it has already caused regional yield reduction and/or quality decline in potato production.Our research aimed to confirm the potential geographical distributions(PGDs)of S.costaestrigalis in China under different climate scenarios using an optimal MaxEnt model,and to provide baseline data for preventing agricultural damage by S.costaestrigalis.Our findings indicated that the accuracy of the optimal MaxEnt model was better than the default-setting model,and the minimum temperature of the coldest month,precipitation of the driest month,precipitation of the coldest quarter,and the human influence index were the variables significantly affecting the PGDs of S.costaestrigalis.The highly-and moderately-suitable habitats of S.costaestrigalis were mainly located in eastern and southern China.The PGDs of S.costaestrigalis in China will decrease under climate change.The conversion of the highly-to moderately-suitable habitat will also be significant under climate change.The centroid of the suitable habitat area of S.costaestrigalis under the current climate showed a general tendency to move northeast and to the middle-high latitudes in the 2030s.The agricultural practice of plastic film mulching in potato fields will provide a favorable microclimate for S.costaestrigalis in the suitable areas.More attention should be paid to the early warning and monitoring of S.costaestrigalis in order to prevent its further spread in the main areas in China’s winter potato planting regions.
基金the auspices of A Category of Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA20010101)。
文摘The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis of equilibrium points without any reference to when or how to achieve it. In this paper, a dynamic gravity model was established based on the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) theory to estimate and monitor the interconnection intensity and dynamic characters of bilateral relations. In order to detect the determinants of interconnection intensity, a Geodetector method was applied to identify and evaluate the determinants of spatial networks in five dimensions. The empirical study clearly demonstrates a heterogeneous and non-circular spatial structure. The main driving forces of spatial-temporal evolution are foreign direct investment, tourism and railway infrastructure construction, while determinants in different sub-regions show obvious spatial differentiation. Southeast Asian countries are typically multi-island area where aviation infrastructure plays a more important role. North and Central Asian countries regard oil as a pillar industry where power and port facilities have a greater impact on the interconnection. While Western Asian countries are mostly influenced by the railway infrastructure, Eastern European countries already have relatively robust infrastructure where tariff policies provide a greater impetus.
基金supported financially by the Research Fund for the Educational Commission of Liaoning Province of China(LQN201904 and LJC201901)the Doctoral Program of Shenyang Normal University(Grant No.BS201821)the Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province of China(2020-BS-148 and 2021-MS-241)。
文摘The Liaoning clawed salamander(Onychodactylus zhaoermii)is an endemic and critically endangered amphibian species of China.To study the population genetics of natural populations of this species,32 samples were collected from six different locations,and the mitochondrial genome was sequenced.Population genetic analyses showed that the Liaoning clawed salamander is composed of only one radialized cluster with ultralow nucleotide diversity.Late Pleistocene climate cooling(-100 to-30 kya)may have reduced the effective population size of the Liaoning clawed salamander,and the subsequent temperature increase(~25 kya to present)provided the opportunity for population expansion.Because of heat sensitivity,the maximum temperature of the prebreeding period,especially from March to May,is very important for the surface environment living in the Liaoning clawed salamander.Three suitable regions were predicted by the MaxEnt model,and the largest suitable region(approximately 899 km2)was at the four-county boundary area and was larger than the present’Natural Conservation Community of the Liaoning Clawed Salamander’.To ensure more effective protection of all Liaoning clawed salamanders,we suggest extending the current’Natural Conservation Community of the Liaoning Clawed Salamander’to include the four-county boundary area.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2019YFD0901405)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41906073,31900333)the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.19ZR1423000).
文摘Abundance and distribution of jumbo flying squid(Dosidicus gigas)are evidently influenced by the changes of marine environment.In this study,the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model was applied to examine the impacts of marine environmental variables on its potential distribution,and identified habitat hotspots of D.gigas in summer and autumn along the coast of Chile.The MaxEnt model was constructed by using the fisheries data of D.gigas from summer to autumn during 2011–2017 combined with critical environmental factors including mixed layer depth(MLD),sea surface salinity(SSS),sea surface height(SSH)and water temperature at depths of 0 m,25 m,50 m,100 m,150 m,200 m,300 m,400 m and 500 m.Results showed that the actual fishing efforts of D.gigas in summer and autumn were mostly distributed in the suitable habitat,indicating that the MaxEnt model can well predict the habitat hotspots of D.gigas off Chile.The key environmental factors and their suitable ranges for D.gigas showed significant intermonthly changes from December to May.The critical environmental factors of D.gigas off Chile were MLD,SSH,water temperature at different depths in summer(Temp_25 m in December,Temp_300 m in January and Temp_400 m in February)and SSH,SSS,Temp_400 m in autumn.Our findings suggest that selecting the key environmental factors is vital to study the potential distribution of D.gigas off Chile in each month to explore its habitat hotspots.
