The development of wind power clusters has scaled in terms of both scale and coverage,and the impact of weather fluctuations on cluster output changes has become increasingly complex.Accurately identifying the forward...The development of wind power clusters has scaled in terms of both scale and coverage,and the impact of weather fluctuations on cluster output changes has become increasingly complex.Accurately identifying the forward-looking information of key wind farms in a cluster under different weather conditions is an effective method to improve the accuracy of ultrashort-term cluster power forecasting.To this end,this paper proposes a refined modeling method for ultrashort-term wind power cluster forecasting based on a convergent cross-mapping algorithm.From the perspective of causality,key meteorological forecasting factors under different cluster power fluctuation processes were screened,and refined training modeling was performed for different fluctuation processes.First,a wind process description index system and classification model at the wind power cluster level are established to realize the classification of typical fluctuation processes.A meteorological-cluster power causal relationship evaluation model based on the convergent cross-mapping algorithm is pro-posed to screen meteorological forecasting factors under multiple types of typical fluctuation processes.Finally,a refined modeling meth-od for a variety of different typical fluctuation processes is proposed,and the strong causal meteorological forecasting factors of each scenario are used as inputs to realize high-precision modeling and forecasting of ultra-short-term wind cluster power.An example anal-ysis shows that the short-term wind power cluster power forecasting accuracy of the proposed method can reach 88.55%,which is 1.57-7.32%higher than that of traditional methods.展开更多
DNS(domain name system) query log analysis has been a popular research topic in recent years. CLOPE, the represented transactional clustering algorithm, could be readily used for DNS query log mining. However, the alg...DNS(domain name system) query log analysis has been a popular research topic in recent years. CLOPE, the represented transactional clustering algorithm, could be readily used for DNS query log mining. However, the algorithm is inefficient when processing large scale data. The MR-CLOPE algorithm is proposed, which is an extension and improvement on CLOPE based on Map Reduce. Different from the previous parallel clustering method, a two-stage Map Reduce implementation framework is proposed. Each of the stage is implemented by one kind Map Reduce task. In the first stage, the DNS query logs are divided into multiple splits and the CLOPE algorithm is executed on each split. The second stage usually tends to iterate many times to merge the small clusters into bigger satisfactory ones. In these two stages, a novel partition process is designed to randomly spread out original sub clusters, which will be moved and merged in the map phrase of the second phase according to the defined merge criteria. In such way, the advantage of the original CLOPE algorithm is kept and its disadvantages are dealt with in the proposed framework to achieve more excellent clustering performance. The experiment results show that MR-CLOPE is not only faster but also has better clustering quality on DNS query logs compared with CLOPE.展开更多
基金funded by the State Grid Science and Technology Project“Research on Key Technologies for Prediction and Early Warning of Large-Scale Offshore Wind Power Ramp Events Based on Meteorological Data Enhancement”(4000-202318098A-1-1-ZN).
文摘The development of wind power clusters has scaled in terms of both scale and coverage,and the impact of weather fluctuations on cluster output changes has become increasingly complex.Accurately identifying the forward-looking information of key wind farms in a cluster under different weather conditions is an effective method to improve the accuracy of ultrashort-term cluster power forecasting.To this end,this paper proposes a refined modeling method for ultrashort-term wind power cluster forecasting based on a convergent cross-mapping algorithm.From the perspective of causality,key meteorological forecasting factors under different cluster power fluctuation processes were screened,and refined training modeling was performed for different fluctuation processes.First,a wind process description index system and classification model at the wind power cluster level are established to realize the classification of typical fluctuation processes.A meteorological-cluster power causal relationship evaluation model based on the convergent cross-mapping algorithm is pro-posed to screen meteorological forecasting factors under multiple types of typical fluctuation processes.Finally,a refined modeling meth-od for a variety of different typical fluctuation processes is proposed,and the strong causal meteorological forecasting factors of each scenario are used as inputs to realize high-precision modeling and forecasting of ultra-short-term wind cluster power.An example anal-ysis shows that the short-term wind power cluster power forecasting accuracy of the proposed method can reach 88.55%,which is 1.57-7.32%higher than that of traditional methods.
基金Project(61103046) supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(B201312) supported by DHU Distinguished Young Professor Program,China+1 种基金Project(LY14F020007) supported by Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Funds of ChinaProject(2014A610072) supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Ningbo City,China
文摘DNS(domain name system) query log analysis has been a popular research topic in recent years. CLOPE, the represented transactional clustering algorithm, could be readily used for DNS query log mining. However, the algorithm is inefficient when processing large scale data. The MR-CLOPE algorithm is proposed, which is an extension and improvement on CLOPE based on Map Reduce. Different from the previous parallel clustering method, a two-stage Map Reduce implementation framework is proposed. Each of the stage is implemented by one kind Map Reduce task. In the first stage, the DNS query logs are divided into multiple splits and the CLOPE algorithm is executed on each split. The second stage usually tends to iterate many times to merge the small clusters into bigger satisfactory ones. In these two stages, a novel partition process is designed to randomly spread out original sub clusters, which will be moved and merged in the map phrase of the second phase according to the defined merge criteria. In such way, the advantage of the original CLOPE algorithm is kept and its disadvantages are dealt with in the proposed framework to achieve more excellent clustering performance. The experiment results show that MR-CLOPE is not only faster but also has better clustering quality on DNS query logs compared with CLOPE.
