Based on the characteristics of make-to-order manufacturing, risks in enterprises are analyzed, which are encountered when receiving orders. Dividing the whole process into three stages, this paper provides a qualitat...Based on the characteristics of make-to-order manufacturing, risks in enterprises are analyzed, which are encountered when receiving orders. Dividing the whole process into three stages, this paper provides a qualitative explanation of the risky factors, failure rate, risk level and changes of each stage, and then provides a mathematic model of quantitative analysis by using fuzzy sets and an analytical hierarchy process. In the light of the relationship among the three stages, a formula for calculating risk levels of orders is worked out. Meanwhile, both economic and non-economic losses due to an order failure are considered in the assessment system. An actual case is analyzed using the described method. Suggestions for risk prevention or loss reduction are given.展开更多
为有效预防民用航空产品制造过程中的人因差错事件,以人的因素分析与分类系统(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System,HFACS)为理论基础,揭示各致因因素间的复杂耦合机制。首先,基于HFACS-ME简化模型,通过整合98个四级指标...为有效预防民用航空产品制造过程中的人因差错事件,以人的因素分析与分类系统(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System,HFACS)为理论基础,揭示各致因因素间的复杂耦合机制。首先,基于HFACS-ME简化模型,通过整合98个四级指标构建了适用于航空产品的产线分析模型,并利用该模型对某航空维修(Maintenance,Repair&Overhaul,MRO)企业民用航空产品生产线中的人因差错事件进行分类分析;其次,通过卡方检验识别出具有统计学显著性的强相关致因组,结合让步比分析与基于条件概率的权重分配,定量划分指标组间的影响程度;再次,应用决策试验与评估实验法(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)确定指标组间的因果关系与依赖程度,并采用逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)对关键指标进行排序,识别出引发人因差错事件的高重要度因素,进一步分析揭示了潜在的事故致因路径,并提出基于切断致因路径的风险预防建议;最后,通过某MRO企业民用航空产品制造产线的225例人因差错事件对方法进行验证。结果表明:此分析方法共识别出11对强相关致因组、2项高中心度致因因素及5项高原因度因素,总结出6条易导致人因差错的事故致因路径;可以证明人因差错事件并非孤立存在,管理层面因素、不安全行为前提条件与不安全行为之间存在显著因果关系。展开更多
Multiattribute decision making（MADM） problems, in which the weights and ratings of alternatives are expressed with intuitionistic fuzzy（IF） sets, are investigated.Firstly, the relative degrees of membership and th...Multiattribute decision making（MADM） problems, in which the weights and ratings of alternatives are expressed with intuitionistic fuzzy（IF） sets, are investigated.Firstly, the relative degrees of membership and the relative degrees of non-membership are formulated as IF sets, the weights and values of alternatives on both qualitative and quantitative attributes may be expressed as IF sets in a unified way.Then a MADM method based on generalized ordered weighted averaging operators is proposed.The proposed method is illustrated with a numerical example.展开更多
The problem of fusing multiagent preference orderings, with information on agent＇s importance being incomplete certain with respect to a set of possible courses of action, is described. The approach is developed for ...The problem of fusing multiagent preference orderings, with information on agent＇s importance being incomplete certain with respect to a set of possible courses of action, is described. The approach is developed for dealing with the fusion problem described in the following sections and requires that each agent provides a preference ordering over the different alternatives completely independent of the other agents, and the information on agent＇s importance is incomplete certain. In this approach, the ternary comparison matrix of the alternatives is constructed, the eigenvector associated with the maximum eigenvalue of the ternary comparison matrix is attained so as to normalize priority vector of the alternatives. The interval number of the alternatives is then obtained by solving two sorts of linear programming problems. By comparing the interval numbers of the alternatives, the ranking of alternatives can be generated. Finally, some examples are given to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.展开更多
针对武器装备体系能力需求分析问题,提出基于犹豫模糊环境下的决策实验室分析法(Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)和逼近理想解排序法改进质量功能展开(Quality Function Deployment,QFD)的新方法。利用基于...针对武器装备体系能力需求分析问题,提出基于犹豫模糊环境下的决策实验室分析法(Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)和逼近理想解排序法改进质量功能展开(Quality Function Deployment,QFD)的新方法。利用基于犹豫模糊理论的DEMATEL方法分析装备体系任务需求之间的影响关系,以确定任务需求重要度;根据装备体系任务需求重要度,建立基于犹豫模糊TOPSIS的装备能力需求优选模型,并通过改进的加权汉明距离计算装备能力需求的相对重要性,以智能城市作战装备体系为例,对比传统方法验证了改进QFD方法的有效性。研究结果表明,改进方法较好地解决了传统QFD在处理犹豫模糊信息时的缺陷,可为装备体系能力需求分析提供新的工具支持。展开更多
针对高等数学课程的教学评价问题,提出了一种基于投影测度和优劣解距离法(Technique for Order Perfomance by Similarity to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)技术的多属性决策模型。给出一种新的标准化投影测度,以度量含实数与区间的含混向量...针对高等数学课程的教学评价问题,提出了一种基于投影测度和优劣解距离法(Technique for Order Perfomance by Similarity to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)技术的多属性决策模型。给出一种新的标准化投影测度,以度量含实数与区间的含混向量的接近程度;将标准化投影测度融入TOPSIS方法中,建立了一种改进的TOPSIS模型;将其应用于高等数学课程的教学评价实践,并通过与其他模型对比,验证了模型的可行性与有效性。展开更多
文摘Based on the characteristics of make-to-order manufacturing, risks in enterprises are analyzed, which are encountered when receiving orders. Dividing the whole process into three stages, this paper provides a qualitative explanation of the risky factors, failure rate, risk level and changes of each stage, and then provides a mathematic model of quantitative analysis by using fuzzy sets and an analytical hierarchy process. In the light of the relationship among the three stages, a formula for calculating risk levels of orders is worked out. Meanwhile, both economic and non-economic losses due to an order failure are considered in the assessment system. An actual case is analyzed using the described method. Suggestions for risk prevention or loss reduction are given.
文摘为有效预防民用航空产品制造过程中的人因差错事件,以人的因素分析与分类系统(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System,HFACS)为理论基础,揭示各致因因素间的复杂耦合机制。首先,基于HFACS-ME简化模型,通过整合98个四级指标构建了适用于航空产品的产线分析模型,并利用该模型对某航空维修(Maintenance,Repair&Overhaul,MRO)企业民用航空产品生产线中的人因差错事件进行分类分析;其次,通过卡方检验识别出具有统计学显著性的强相关致因组,结合让步比分析与基于条件概率的权重分配,定量划分指标组间的影响程度;再次,应用决策试验与评估实验法(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)确定指标组间的因果关系与依赖程度,并采用逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)对关键指标进行排序,识别出引发人因差错事件的高重要度因素,进一步分析揭示了潜在的事故致因路径,并提出基于切断致因路径的风险预防建议;最后,通过某MRO企业民用航空产品制造产线的225例人因差错事件对方法进行验证。结果表明:此分析方法共识别出11对强相关致因组、2项高中心度致因因素及5项高原因度因素,总结出6条易导致人因差错的事故致因路径;可以证明人因差错事件并非孤立存在,管理层面因素、不安全行为前提条件与不安全行为之间存在显著因果关系。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70871117 70571086)
文摘Multiattribute decision making（MADM） problems, in which the weights and ratings of alternatives are expressed with intuitionistic fuzzy（IF） sets, are investigated.Firstly, the relative degrees of membership and the relative degrees of non-membership are formulated as IF sets, the weights and values of alternatives on both qualitative and quantitative attributes may be expressed as IF sets in a unified way.Then a MADM method based on generalized ordered weighted averaging operators is proposed.The proposed method is illustrated with a numerical example.
基金This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(70631004).
文摘The problem of fusing multiagent preference orderings, with information on agent＇s importance being incomplete certain with respect to a set of possible courses of action, is described. The approach is developed for dealing with the fusion problem described in the following sections and requires that each agent provides a preference ordering over the different alternatives completely independent of the other agents, and the information on agent＇s importance is incomplete certain. In this approach, the ternary comparison matrix of the alternatives is constructed, the eigenvector associated with the maximum eigenvalue of the ternary comparison matrix is attained so as to normalize priority vector of the alternatives. The interval number of the alternatives is then obtained by solving two sorts of linear programming problems. By comparing the interval numbers of the alternatives, the ranking of alternatives can be generated. Finally, some examples are given to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.
文摘针对武器装备体系能力需求分析问题,提出基于犹豫模糊环境下的决策实验室分析法(Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)和逼近理想解排序法改进质量功能展开(Quality Function Deployment,QFD)的新方法。利用基于犹豫模糊理论的DEMATEL方法分析装备体系任务需求之间的影响关系,以确定任务需求重要度;根据装备体系任务需求重要度,建立基于犹豫模糊TOPSIS的装备能力需求优选模型,并通过改进的加权汉明距离计算装备能力需求的相对重要性,以智能城市作战装备体系为例,对比传统方法验证了改进QFD方法的有效性。研究结果表明,改进方法较好地解决了传统QFD在处理犹豫模糊信息时的缺陷,可为装备体系能力需求分析提供新的工具支持。
文摘针对高等数学课程的教学评价问题,提出了一种基于投影测度和优劣解距离法(Technique for Order Perfomance by Similarity to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)技术的多属性决策模型。给出一种新的标准化投影测度,以度量含实数与区间的含混向量的接近程度;将标准化投影测度融入TOPSIS方法中,建立了一种改进的TOPSIS模型;将其应用于高等数学课程的教学评价实践,并通过与其他模型对比,验证了模型的可行性与有效性。
