Climate change and economic development impact the population expansion and water shortage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MYRB),leading directly to drought aggravation-expansion and impacting agricul...Climate change and economic development impact the population expansion and water shortage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MYRB),leading directly to drought aggravation-expansion and impacting agricultural production in the MYRB.Therefore,this study quantitatively evaluated agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB based on the variable fuzzy evaluation model(VFEM).The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The arable land in the MYRB gradually decreased between 2005 and 2020,whereas the forest cover decreased and then increased;(2)precipitation and evapotranspiration were the key factors affecting the agricultural drought vulnerability(e.g.,weights of 0.24 and 0.21),whereas arable land density and gross domestic product(GDP)per capita played less significant roles;and(3)the agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB during 2005-2020 was mainly at level 3 and below,with higher drought vulnerability in the western and northern regions,which had a higher drought risk potential.展开更多
In late July 2018, a compound drought and heat event(CDHE) occurred in the middle of the Yangtze River basin(MYRB) and caused great damage to the national economy. The CDHE over the MYRB has been documented to be link...In late July 2018, a compound drought and heat event(CDHE) occurred in the middle of the Yangtze River basin(MYRB) and caused great damage to the national economy. The CDHE over the MYRB has been documented to be linked with intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) from different regions. However, specific roles of different ISOs on the development of the CDHE cannot be separated in the observational analysis. By using partial lateral forcing experiments driven by ISO in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model, we found that the midlatitude ISO generated by a westerly wave train in the upper troposphere played an important role in this heatwave and drought event in the northern MYRB, causing a regional average temperature rise of 1.65°C and intensification of drought over23.49% of the MYRB area. On the other hand, the ISO associated with the Pacific-Japan(PJ)-like teleconnection wave train in the lower troposphere induced a more pronounced impact on the event, causing an average temperature rise of 2.44°C, intensifying drought over 29.62% of the MYRB area. The MYRB was mainly affected by northward warm advection driven by the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high in the early period of the CDHE development. In the late period, because of the establishment of a deep positive geopotential height field through the troposphere leading to intensive local subsidence, there was a remarkable temperature rise and moisture decrease in the MYRB. The results will facilitate a better understanding of the occurrence of CDHE and provide empirical precursory signals for subseasonal forecast of CDHE.展开更多
基金supported by the Supported by Joint Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering and Tsinghua-Ningxia Yinchuan Joint Institute of Internet of Waters on Digital Water Governance(No.sklhse-2022-Iow04)Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research(No.IWHR-SKL-202217)。
文摘Climate change and economic development impact the population expansion and water shortage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MYRB),leading directly to drought aggravation-expansion and impacting agricultural production in the MYRB.Therefore,this study quantitatively evaluated agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB based on the variable fuzzy evaluation model(VFEM).The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The arable land in the MYRB gradually decreased between 2005 and 2020,whereas the forest cover decreased and then increased;(2)precipitation and evapotranspiration were the key factors affecting the agricultural drought vulnerability(e.g.,weights of 0.24 and 0.21),whereas arable land density and gross domestic product(GDP)per capita played less significant roles;and(3)the agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB during 2005-2020 was mainly at level 3 and below,with higher drought vulnerability in the western and northern regions,which had a higher drought risk potential.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875111 and 41975073)Special Program for Innovation and Development of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J031).
文摘In late July 2018, a compound drought and heat event(CDHE) occurred in the middle of the Yangtze River basin(MYRB) and caused great damage to the national economy. The CDHE over the MYRB has been documented to be linked with intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) from different regions. However, specific roles of different ISOs on the development of the CDHE cannot be separated in the observational analysis. By using partial lateral forcing experiments driven by ISO in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model, we found that the midlatitude ISO generated by a westerly wave train in the upper troposphere played an important role in this heatwave and drought event in the northern MYRB, causing a regional average temperature rise of 1.65°C and intensification of drought over23.49% of the MYRB area. On the other hand, the ISO associated with the Pacific-Japan(PJ)-like teleconnection wave train in the lower troposphere induced a more pronounced impact on the event, causing an average temperature rise of 2.44°C, intensifying drought over 29.62% of the MYRB area. The MYRB was mainly affected by northward warm advection driven by the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high in the early period of the CDHE development. In the late period, because of the establishment of a deep positive geopotential height field through the troposphere leading to intensive local subsidence, there was a remarkable temperature rise and moisture decrease in the MYRB. The results will facilitate a better understanding of the occurrence of CDHE and provide empirical precursory signals for subseasonal forecast of CDHE.
