为深入研究设施农作物风险条件下最优生产组合,在target-MOTAD(The minimization of total absolute deviation model)模型基础上,打破风险状态概率等值恒定限制,对target-MOTAD模型进行改进。利用南京市六合区设施农户抽样调查数据,运...为深入研究设施农作物风险条件下最优生产组合,在target-MOTAD(The minimization of total absolute deviation model)模型基础上,打破风险状态概率等值恒定限制,对target-MOTAD模型进行改进。利用南京市六合区设施农户抽样调查数据,运用target-MOTAD改进模型实证研究设施农业中"高设施,高风险,高收益"与"低设施,低风险,低收益"2类情境的设施农户的生产经营状况以及不同风险条件下最优组合种植策略。结果表明:利用伪随机数模拟风险状态发生概率的target-MOTAD改进模型研究不确定情境的设施农作物组合种植计划是正确和有效的;南京市六合区"典型设施农户"的种植结构需要调整。综合考虑风险状态的规律和生产资料投入等因素,target-MOTAD改进模型更接近现实种植情况,可为不确定情境下设施农作物种植计划决策提供借鉴。展开更多
In vast farms management,especially in multi-crop cultivation case,planning for a combination of crops cultivation has always been of high importance to achieve the maximum income,by taking into account imposed limita...In vast farms management,especially in multi-crop cultivation case,planning for a combination of crops cultivation has always been of high importance to achieve the maximum income,by taking into account imposed limitations and the risk of different activities.According to the fact that in traditional models of farm programming because of not attention to risk,its results differ from what farmer do in reality,considering the risk farm programming should be well thought.MOTAD model(Minimization of the Total Absolute Deviation)is a mathematic programming model that enters risk into decision making related to farm activities and provides different programs.A main feature of this model is that the risk is calculated by negative deviation from efficiency amount as total multiplication.In recent years,serious declining of water table problem forced Regional Water Corporation of West-Azerbaijan province to impose limitations for extra water use of wells in order to sustain"Mako,Poldasht"water resources.These limitations result in lowering available water level(The most important input for farming),and create changes in cropping patterns and income level of farmers in this area.The aim of this study is analyzing improved cropping considering water limitations and in risk conditions.Data have been collected from farmers and Agriculture"Jihad"Management of town of Mako for duration of 1387-1388.According to the results of the research,the real cultivation plan that is now being implemented throughout the region carries a high risk and low income.Based on results,if the farmer uses the optimal cultivation pattern during the so-called water access limitation,watermelon harvest will be excluded from the optimal cultivation pattern.Also,alfalfa will enter the cultivation plan with the expected income level of 1067 billion Rials(100 Rials=US$0.01).If the farmer uses improved cropping pattern in limitations in risk it will decrease total income as 171.36 billion Rials,to when the water limitations is not implemented.展开更多
文摘为深入研究设施农作物风险条件下最优生产组合,在target-MOTAD(The minimization of total absolute deviation model)模型基础上,打破风险状态概率等值恒定限制,对target-MOTAD模型进行改进。利用南京市六合区设施农户抽样调查数据,运用target-MOTAD改进模型实证研究设施农业中"高设施,高风险,高收益"与"低设施,低风险,低收益"2类情境的设施农户的生产经营状况以及不同风险条件下最优组合种植策略。结果表明:利用伪随机数模拟风险状态发生概率的target-MOTAD改进模型研究不确定情境的设施农作物组合种植计划是正确和有效的;南京市六合区"典型设施农户"的种植结构需要调整。综合考虑风险状态的规律和生产资料投入等因素,target-MOTAD改进模型更接近现实种植情况,可为不确定情境下设施农作物种植计划决策提供借鉴。
文摘In vast farms management,especially in multi-crop cultivation case,planning for a combination of crops cultivation has always been of high importance to achieve the maximum income,by taking into account imposed limitations and the risk of different activities.According to the fact that in traditional models of farm programming because of not attention to risk,its results differ from what farmer do in reality,considering the risk farm programming should be well thought.MOTAD model(Minimization of the Total Absolute Deviation)is a mathematic programming model that enters risk into decision making related to farm activities and provides different programs.A main feature of this model is that the risk is calculated by negative deviation from efficiency amount as total multiplication.In recent years,serious declining of water table problem forced Regional Water Corporation of West-Azerbaijan province to impose limitations for extra water use of wells in order to sustain"Mako,Poldasht"water resources.These limitations result in lowering available water level(The most important input for farming),and create changes in cropping patterns and income level of farmers in this area.The aim of this study is analyzing improved cropping considering water limitations and in risk conditions.Data have been collected from farmers and Agriculture"Jihad"Management of town of Mako for duration of 1387-1388.According to the results of the research,the real cultivation plan that is now being implemented throughout the region carries a high risk and low income.Based on results,if the farmer uses the optimal cultivation pattern during the so-called water access limitation,watermelon harvest will be excluded from the optimal cultivation pattern.Also,alfalfa will enter the cultivation plan with the expected income level of 1067 billion Rials(100 Rials=US$0.01).If the farmer uses improved cropping pattern in limitations in risk it will decrease total income as 171.36 billion Rials,to when the water limitations is not implemented.
