The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risk...The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.展开更多
Prevailing dogma asserts that the uplift of Tibet, the onset of the Asian monsoon system and high biodiversity in southern Asia are linked, and that all occurred after 23 million years ago in the Neogene.Here, spannin...Prevailing dogma asserts that the uplift of Tibet, the onset of the Asian monsoon system and high biodiversity in southern Asia are linked, and that all occurred after 23 million years ago in the Neogene.Here, spanning the last 60 million years of Earth history, the geological, climatological and palaeontological evidence for this linkage is reviewed. The principal conclusions are that: 1) A proto-Tibetan highland existed well before the Neogene and that an Andean type topography with surface elevations of at least 4.5 km existed at the start of the Eocene, before final closure of the Tethys Ocean that separated India from Eurasia. 2) The Himalaya were formed not at the start of the India-Eurasia collision, but after much of Tibet had achieved its present elevation. The Himalaya built against a pre-existing proto-Tibetan highland and only projected above the average height of the plateau after approximately 15 Ma. 3)Monsoon climates have existed across southern Asia for the whole of the Cenozoic, and probably for a lot longer, but that they were of the kind generated by seasonal migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. 4) The projection of the High Himalaya above the Tibetan Plateau at about 15 Ma coincides with the development of the modern South Asia Monsoon. 5) The East Asia monsoon became established in its present form about the same time as a consequence of topographic changes in northern Tibet and elsewhere in Asia, the loss of moisture sources in the Asian interior and the development of a strong winter Siberian high as global temperatures declined. 6) New radiometric dates of palaeontological finds point to southern Asia's high biodiversity originating in the Paleogene, not the Neogene.展开更多
Using the monthly geopotential heights and winds for 700 and 200 hPa for India during July and August, and the weekly M-100 Soviet rocketsonde temperature and wind data for Thumba (8.5 ° N, 76.9 ° E) during ...Using the monthly geopotential heights and winds for 700 and 200 hPa for India during July and August, and the weekly M-100 Soviet rocketsonde temperature and wind data for Thumba (8.5 ° N, 76.9 ° E) during the last week of June and the first week of September for the two contrasting summer monsoon years 1975 (a very strong monsoon year) and 1979 (a very weak monsoon year), a study has been made to examine the mean circulation features of the troposphere over India, and the structures of the temperatures and the winds of the middle atmosphere over Thumba. The study suggested that the axis of the monsoon trough (AMT) at 700 hPa shifted southward in 1975 and northward towards the foothills of the Himalayas in 1979, from its normal position. Superimposed on the low-pressure area (AMT) at 700 hPa, a well-defined divergence was noticed at 200 hPa over the northern India in 1975.The mean temperatures at 25,50 and 60 km (middle atmosphere) over Thumba were cooler in 1975 than in 1979. While a cooling trend in 1975 and warming trend in 1979 were observed at 25 and 50 km, a reversed picture was noticed at 60 km. There was a weak easterly / westerly (weak westerly phase) zonal wind in 1975 and a strong easterly zonal wind in 1979. A phase reversal of the zonal wind was observed at 50 km. A tentative physical mechanism was offered, in terms of upward propagation of the two equatorially trapped planetary waves i.e. the Kelvin and the mixed Rossby-gravity waves, to explain the occurrence of the two spells of strong warmings in the mesosphere in 1975.展开更多
Seasonal changes exhibit climate changes, so models can predict future climate change accurately only if they can reproduce seasonal cycle accu-rately. Further, seasonal changes are much larger than the changes even i...Seasonal changes exhibit climate changes, so models can predict future climate change accurately only if they can reproduce seasonal cycle accu-rately. Further, seasonal changes are much larger than the changes even in long period of centuries. Thus it is unwise to ignore large ones compared to small climate change. In this paper, we determine how accurately a suite of ten coupled general circulation models reproduce the observed seasonal cycle in rainfall of the tropics. The seasonal cycles in rainfall of global tropics are known as monsoons. We found that the models can reasonably reproduce the seasonal cycle in rainfall, thus are useful in climate prediction and simulation of global monsoons.展开更多
A new monsoon index, the dynamical normalized seasonality (DNS), is introduced to study the issue of monsoons. This DNS index can describe both seasonal variation and interannual variability of different monsoon regio...A new monsoon index, the dynamical normalized seasonality (DNS), is introduced to study the issue of monsoons. This DNS index can describe both seasonal variation and interannual variability of different monsoon regions. It can also be used to delimit the geographical distribution of the global monsoon systems. Furthermore, it is pointed out that the index is very useful for understanding deeply the monsoons to study the difference, relationship, and interactions among the classical monsoon, ordinary monsoon and monsoon-like system.展开更多
Recent advances in studies on the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle are reviewed in this paper. Through the recent studies, not only have the responding features and processes of the East A...Recent advances in studies on the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle are reviewed in this paper. Through the recent studies, not only have the responding features and processes of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon circulation anomalies and summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia to the ENSO cycle during its different stages been understood further, but also have the thermal and dynamic effects of the tropical \vestern Pacific on the ENSO cycle been deeply analyzed from the observational facts and dynamic theories. The results of observational and theoretical studies showed that the dynamical effect of the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific on the ENSO cycle may be through the excitation of the equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and Rossby waves in the equatorial Pacific. These studies demonstrated further that the ENSO cycle originates from the tropical western Pacific. Moreover, these recent studies also showed that the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific not only result from the air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific, but are also greatly influenced by the East Asian winter and summer monsoons. Additionally, the scientific problems in the interaction between the Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle which should be studied further in the near future are also pointed out in this paper.展开更多
The intensity of interannual variability(IIV)of the monsoon and monsoon–ENSO biennial relationship(MEBR)were examined and compared for both the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)and western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM...The intensity of interannual variability(IIV)of the monsoon and monsoon–ENSO biennial relationship(MEBR)were examined and compared for both the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)and western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM)during 1958–2018.Covariability of the IIV and MEBR were identified for the two monsoons.When the MEBR was strong(weak),the IIV of the monsoon was observed to be large(small).This rule applied to both the ISM and WNPSM.Out-ofphase relationships were found between the ISM and the WNPSM.When the IIV and MEBR of the ISM were strong(weak),those of the WNPSM tended to be weak(strong).During the period with a stronger(weaker)ENSO–Atlantic coupling after(before)the mid-1980 s,the IIV and MEBR of the WNPSM(ISM)were observed to be stronger.The increasing influences from the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)may trigger the observed seesaw pattern of the ISM and WNPSM in terms of the IIV and MEBR multidecadal variability.The results imply that tropical Atlantic SST may need to be given more attention and consideration when predicting future monsoon variability of the ISM and WNPSM.展开更多
Abstract: Comparative study of long lake records in different regions in China can provide some significant information about the regional differentiation of the environment and Asian monsoon activities. However, inte...Abstract: Comparative study of long lake records in different regions in China can provide some significant information about the regional differentiation of the environment and Asian monsoon activities. However, intensively studied lacustrine cores with a span of a few hundred thousand years are very rare in China. The available examples are only three long cores from the Zoigê basin in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet plateau, the Qaidam basin in the northern Qinghai-Tibet plateau and the Dianchi basin in the Yunnan plateau respectively. The results show that the regional environmental differentiation since the Mid-Pleistocene involved three stages, i.e. 780–480, 480–160, 160–0 ka B.P. In each of the three stages different regions of China had their own distinctive environmental characteristics, indicating that the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau played a major role in the environmental differentiation process.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to study whether the features of perennial summer over the South China Sea remain constant all the year round or not , and whether there are any seasonal differences throughout the year or not...The aim of this paper is to study whether the features of perennial summer over the South China Sea remain constant all the year round or not , and whether there are any seasonal differences throughout the year or not. According to the characteristics of remarkable monsoon and frequent typhoon, the influences of monsoon and tropical cyclone on the hydrological features and the seasonal structure over the South China Sea are analysed by using examples. It may be considered that in the perennial summer area over the South China Sea, it is summer all the year round, but it does not remain constant throughout the year. On the basis of index dates of developing stages for winter and summer monsoons as well as the seasonal characteristics of typhoon frequency,the perennial summer season over the South China Sea may be divided into four periods, namely, early summer, midsummer, sweltering summer and late summer. The concrete classification and the hydrological seasonal feature of each period are discussed.展开更多
South Asian monsoons were analyzed within the context of increasing emissions of black carbon(BC) aerosols using a global atmospheric general circulation model.The BC aerosols were allowed to increase only over the so...South Asian monsoons were analyzed within the context of increasing emissions of black carbon(BC) aerosols using a global atmospheric general circulation model.The BC aerosols were allowed to increase only over the south Asian domain to analyze the impacts of regional black carbon over the climatological patterns of monsoons.The black carbon significantly absorbed the incoming short wave radiation in the atmosphere,a result that is consistent with previous studies.Pre-monsoon(March-April-May) rainfall showed positive anomalies,particularly for some coastal regions of India.The summer(June-July-August) rainfall anomalies were negative over the northern Himalayas,Myanmar,southern China,and most of the regions below 20°N due to the decrease in temperature gradients induced by the absorption of radiation by BC aerosols.The vertical wind speed anomalies indicated that these regions experienced less convection,which reduces the precipitation efficiency of the monsoon system in South Asia.展开更多
The future changes in the relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)and the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated by using the high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5)experi...The future changes in the relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)and the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated by using the high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5)experiments from 26 coupled models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Six models,selected based on their best performance in simulating the upper-and lower-level pathways related to the SASM-EASM teleconnection in the historical run,can capture the positive relationship between the SASM and the rainfall over northern China.In the future scenario,the upper-level teleconnection wave pattern connecting the SASM and the EASM exhibits a significant weakening trend,due to the rainfall anomalies decrease over the northern Indian Peninsula in the future.At the lower level,the western North Pacific anticyclone is projected to strengthen in the warming climate.The positive(negative)rainfall anomalies associated with positive(negative)SASM rainfall anomalies are anticipated to extend southward from northern China to the Yangtze-Huai River valley,the Korea Peninsula,and southern Japan.The connection in the lower-level pathway may be strengthened in the future.展开更多
The mid-Pliocene warm period was the most recent geological period in Earth＇s history that featured long-term warming. Both geological evidence and model results indicate that East Asian summer winds （EASWs） streng...The mid-Pliocene warm period was the most recent geological period in Earth＇s history that featured long-term warming. Both geological evidence and model results indicate that East Asian summer winds （EASWs） strengthened in monsoonal China, and that East Asian winter winds （EAWWs） weakened in northern monsoonal China during this period, as compared to the pre-industrial period. However, the corresponding mechanisms are still unclear. In this paper, the results of a set of numerical simulations are reported to analyze the effects of changed boundary conditions on the mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon climate, based on PRISM3 （Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping） palaeoenvironmental recon- struction. The model results showed that the combined changes of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and ice sheet extent were necessary to generate an overall warm climate on a large scale, and that these factors exerted the greatest effects on the strengthening of EASWs in monsoonal China. The orographic change produced significant local warming and had the greatest effect on the weakening of EAWWs in northern monsoonal China in the mid-Pliocene. Thus, these two factors both had important but different effects on the monsoon change. In comparison, the effects of vegetational change on the strengthened EASWs and weakened EAWWs were relatively weak. The changed monsoon winds can be ex- plained by a reorganization of the meridional temperature gradient and zonal thermal contrast. Moreover, the effect of orbital parameters cannot be ignored. Results showed that changes in orbital parameters could have marked!y affected the EASWs and EAWWs, and caused significant short-term oscillations in the mid-Pliocene monsoon climate in East Asia.展开更多
Three tiers of experiments in the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP),one of the endorsed model intercomparison projects of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),are implemented ...Three tiers of experiments in the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP),one of the endorsed model intercomparison projects of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),are implemented by the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2(FIO-ESM v2.0),following the GMMIP protocols.Evaluation of global mean surface air temperature from 1870 to 2014 and climatological precipitation(1979–2014)in tier-1 shows that the atmosphere model of FIO-ESM v2.0 can reproduce the basic observed atmospheric features.In tier-2,the internal variability is captured by the coupled model,with the SST restoring to the model climatology plus the observed anomalies in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic.Simulation of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation is significantly improved by the SST restoration in the North Atlantic.In tier-3,five orographic perturbation experiments are conducted covering the period 1979–2014 by modifying the surface elevation or vertical heating in the prescribed region.In particular,the strength of the South Asian summer monsoon is reduced by removing the topography or thermal forcing above 500 m over the Asian continent.Monthly and daily simulated outputs of FIO-ESM v2.0 are provided through the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF)node to contribute to a better understanding of the global monsoon system.展开更多
With the motivation to improve the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in coupled climate models, oceanic data assimilation(DA) was used in CAS-ESM-C(Chinese Academy of Sciences–Earth System Model–Clim...With the motivation to improve the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in coupled climate models, oceanic data assimilation(DA) was used in CAS-ESM-C(Chinese Academy of Sciences–Earth System Model–Climate Component) in this study. Observed sea surface temperature was assimilated into CAS-ESM-C. The climatology and interannual variability of the EASM simulated in CAS-ESM-C with DA were compared with a traditional AMIP-type run.Results showed that the climatological spatial pattern and annual cycle of precipitation in the western North Paci?c, and the ENSO-related and EASM-related EASM circulation and precipitation, were largely improved. As shown in this study, air–sea coupling is important for EASM simulation. In addition, oceanic DA synchronizes the coupled model with the real world without breaking the air–sea coupling process. These two successful factors make the assimilation experiment a more reasonable experimental design than traditional AMIP-type simulations.展开更多
Predominantly in the context of Japan GMS-derived T_(BB) data,study is undertaken of the relationship between the winter thermal conditions of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)and anomaly in Asian-Australian monsoons du...Predominantly in the context of Japan GMS-derived T_(BB) data,study is undertaken of the relationship between the winter thermal conditions of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)and anomaly in Asian-Australian monsoons during northern summer.Evidence suggests that anti- correlation of cold air activity of East Asia with that of Mid Asia is responsible for the counterpart of the ground thermal characteristics anomaly on an interannual basis between the SW and NE QXP;the winter thermal pattern bears a closer correlativity with the subsequent summertime Asian-Australian monsoons anomaly;as the thermal distribution is reversed,so are the convection features over North and South China,maritime continent,the NW and SW Pacific at tropical and equatorial latitudes,resulting in vast difference between East-Asian summer and Indonesian-North Australian winter monsoons;the subtropical monsoon-associated rainbelt over the mid-lower Changjiang basins exhibits the discrepancy in vigor and northerly shift timing.Besides,part of the results has been further borne out through analysis of temperature and precipitation records of the eastern portion of the country in monsoon climate.展开更多
This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics a...This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics and potential mechanisms for their different persistence.Results suggest that both types of events are characterized by anomalously suppressed convection accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone during the break period.However,these convection and circulation anomalies exhibit more localized patterns for short-lived events,but possess larger spatial scales and stronger intensities for long-lived events.The influence of tropical intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs)on short-and long-lived events is explored to interpret their different durations.It is found that for short-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation is dominant in initiating and terminating the break,while the impact of the 30-60-day oscillation is secondary,thus resulting in a brief break period.In contrast,for long-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation contributes to break development rather than its initiation,and concurrently,the 30-60-day oscillation shows a remarkable enhancement and plays a decisive role in prolonging the break duration.Furthermore,we find that long-lived events are preceded by significant ISO activities approximately two weeks before their occurrence,which can be regarded as efficient predictors.Associated with these precursory ISOs,the occurrence probability of break days for long-lived events can rise up to triple their original probability(35.43%vs.11.21%).展开更多
Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
The South China Sea winter monsoon(SCSWM),an integral component of the East Asian winter monsoon,connects extratropical and tropical regions.Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis and PAMIP simulations,the relationship between Arc...The South China Sea winter monsoon(SCSWM),an integral component of the East Asian winter monsoon,connects extratropical and tropical regions.Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis and PAMIP simulations,the relationship between Arctic sea ice and the SCSWM is investigated.The authors reveal that its strongest relationship with Arctic sea ice occurs in the North Pacific sector,i.e.,the Sea of Okhotsk and western Bering Sea.This link persists throughout the cold season,peaks when sea ice precedes the SCSWM by one month,and is independent of ENSO.North Pacific sea-ice loss weakens the meridional temperature gradient(MTG)and vertical wind shear in midlatitudes,reducing baroclinic eddy formation.Given the reduced zonal wind according to the thermal wind relation,the reduced wave activity flux in the upper troposphere must be balanced by equatorward wind based on the quasi-geostrophic momentum equation.This generates an anomalous meridional overturning circulation with descent and low-level divergence around 30°N,which intensifies the divergent component of the SCSWM.The divergent northerly anomalies also lead to cold advection and subtropical cooling.The enhanced MTG due to the subtropical cooling and weakened MTG due to high-latitude warming closely tied to reduced North Pacific sea ice displace the westerly jet southward,creating cyclonic shears over the North Pacific and intensifying the rotational component of the SCSWM.These findings establish North Pacific sea ice as a non-ENSO driver of the SCSWM,holding substantial implications for the predictability of the SCSWM.展开更多
In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and cha...In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608904)the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.060GJHZ2023079GC and 134111KYSB20160031)+1 种基金supported by the Office of Science,U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling(WACCEM)scientific focus areaoperated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830。
文摘The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.
文摘Prevailing dogma asserts that the uplift of Tibet, the onset of the Asian monsoon system and high biodiversity in southern Asia are linked, and that all occurred after 23 million years ago in the Neogene.Here, spanning the last 60 million years of Earth history, the geological, climatological and palaeontological evidence for this linkage is reviewed. The principal conclusions are that: 1) A proto-Tibetan highland existed well before the Neogene and that an Andean type topography with surface elevations of at least 4.5 km existed at the start of the Eocene, before final closure of the Tethys Ocean that separated India from Eurasia. 2) The Himalaya were formed not at the start of the India-Eurasia collision, but after much of Tibet had achieved its present elevation. The Himalaya built against a pre-existing proto-Tibetan highland and only projected above the average height of the plateau after approximately 15 Ma. 3)Monsoon climates have existed across southern Asia for the whole of the Cenozoic, and probably for a lot longer, but that they were of the kind generated by seasonal migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. 4) The projection of the High Himalaya above the Tibetan Plateau at about 15 Ma coincides with the development of the modern South Asia Monsoon. 5) The East Asia monsoon became established in its present form about the same time as a consequence of topographic changes in northern Tibet and elsewhere in Asia, the loss of moisture sources in the Asian interior and the development of a strong winter Siberian high as global temperatures declined. 6) New radiometric dates of palaeontological finds point to southern Asia's high biodiversity originating in the Paleogene, not the Neogene.
文摘Using the monthly geopotential heights and winds for 700 and 200 hPa for India during July and August, and the weekly M-100 Soviet rocketsonde temperature and wind data for Thumba (8.5 ° N, 76.9 ° E) during the last week of June and the first week of September for the two contrasting summer monsoon years 1975 (a very strong monsoon year) and 1979 (a very weak monsoon year), a study has been made to examine the mean circulation features of the troposphere over India, and the structures of the temperatures and the winds of the middle atmosphere over Thumba. The study suggested that the axis of the monsoon trough (AMT) at 700 hPa shifted southward in 1975 and northward towards the foothills of the Himalayas in 1979, from its normal position. Superimposed on the low-pressure area (AMT) at 700 hPa, a well-defined divergence was noticed at 200 hPa over the northern India in 1975.The mean temperatures at 25,50 and 60 km (middle atmosphere) over Thumba were cooler in 1975 than in 1979. While a cooling trend in 1975 and warming trend in 1979 were observed at 25 and 50 km, a reversed picture was noticed at 60 km. There was a weak easterly / westerly (weak westerly phase) zonal wind in 1975 and a strong easterly zonal wind in 1979. A phase reversal of the zonal wind was observed at 50 km. A tentative physical mechanism was offered, in terms of upward propagation of the two equatorially trapped planetary waves i.e. the Kelvin and the mixed Rossby-gravity waves, to explain the occurrence of the two spells of strong warmings in the mesosphere in 1975.
文摘Seasonal changes exhibit climate changes, so models can predict future climate change accurately only if they can reproduce seasonal cycle accu-rately. Further, seasonal changes are much larger than the changes even in long period of centuries. Thus it is unwise to ignore large ones compared to small climate change. In this paper, we determine how accurately a suite of ten coupled general circulation models reproduce the observed seasonal cycle in rainfall of the tropics. The seasonal cycles in rainfall of global tropics are known as monsoons. We found that the models can reasonably reproduce the seasonal cycle in rainfall, thus are useful in climate prediction and simulation of global monsoons.
基金This work was supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40233027 and 40275025, and ZKCX2-SW-210.
文摘A new monsoon index, the dynamical normalized seasonality (DNS), is introduced to study the issue of monsoons. This DNS index can describe both seasonal variation and interannual variability of different monsoon regions. It can also be used to delimit the geographical distribution of the global monsoon systems. Furthermore, it is pointed out that the index is very useful for understanding deeply the monsoons to study the difference, relationship, and interactions among the classical monsoon, ordinary monsoon and monsoon-like system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40231005)the Progran for Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KZCX3-SW-218,KZCX2-SW-210).
文摘Recent advances in studies on the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle are reviewed in this paper. Through the recent studies, not only have the responding features and processes of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon circulation anomalies and summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia to the ENSO cycle during its different stages been understood further, but also have the thermal and dynamic effects of the tropical \vestern Pacific on the ENSO cycle been deeply analyzed from the observational facts and dynamic theories. The results of observational and theoretical studies showed that the dynamical effect of the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific on the ENSO cycle may be through the excitation of the equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and Rossby waves in the equatorial Pacific. These studies demonstrated further that the ENSO cycle originates from the tropical western Pacific. Moreover, these recent studies also showed that the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific not only result from the air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific, but are also greatly influenced by the East Asian winter and summer monsoons. Additionally, the scientific problems in the interaction between the Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle which should be studied further in the near future are also pointed out in this paper.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant number 41776031the National Key Research and Development Program of China grant number 2018YFC1506903+2 种基金the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation grant number 2015A030313796the program for scientific research start-up funds of Guangdong Ocean Universitythe Foundation for Returned Scholars of the Ministry of Education of China。
文摘The intensity of interannual variability(IIV)of the monsoon and monsoon–ENSO biennial relationship(MEBR)were examined and compared for both the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)and western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM)during 1958–2018.Covariability of the IIV and MEBR were identified for the two monsoons.When the MEBR was strong(weak),the IIV of the monsoon was observed to be large(small).This rule applied to both the ISM and WNPSM.Out-ofphase relationships were found between the ISM and the WNPSM.When the IIV and MEBR of the ISM were strong(weak),those of the WNPSM tended to be weak(strong).During the period with a stronger(weaker)ENSO–Atlantic coupling after(before)the mid-1980 s,the IIV and MEBR of the WNPSM(ISM)were observed to be stronger.The increasing influences from the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)may trigger the observed seesaw pattern of the ISM and WNPSM in terms of the IIV and MEBR multidecadal variability.The results imply that tropical Atlantic SST may need to be given more attention and consideration when predicting future monsoon variability of the ISM and WNPSM.
文摘Abstract: Comparative study of long lake records in different regions in China can provide some significant information about the regional differentiation of the environment and Asian monsoon activities. However, intensively studied lacustrine cores with a span of a few hundred thousand years are very rare in China. The available examples are only three long cores from the Zoigê basin in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet plateau, the Qaidam basin in the northern Qinghai-Tibet plateau and the Dianchi basin in the Yunnan plateau respectively. The results show that the regional environmental differentiation since the Mid-Pleistocene involved three stages, i.e. 780–480, 480–160, 160–0 ka B.P. In each of the three stages different regions of China had their own distinctive environmental characteristics, indicating that the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau played a major role in the environmental differentiation process.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The aim of this paper is to study whether the features of perennial summer over the South China Sea remain constant all the year round or not , and whether there are any seasonal differences throughout the year or not. According to the characteristics of remarkable monsoon and frequent typhoon, the influences of monsoon and tropical cyclone on the hydrological features and the seasonal structure over the South China Sea are analysed by using examples. It may be considered that in the perennial summer area over the South China Sea, it is summer all the year round, but it does not remain constant throughout the year. On the basis of index dates of developing stages for winter and summer monsoons as well as the seasonal characteristics of typhoon frequency,the perennial summer season over the South China Sea may be divided into four periods, namely, early summer, midsummer, sweltering summer and late summer. The concrete classification and the hydrological seasonal feature of each period are discussed.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q11-03)
文摘South Asian monsoons were analyzed within the context of increasing emissions of black carbon(BC) aerosols using a global atmospheric general circulation model.The BC aerosols were allowed to increase only over the south Asian domain to analyze the impacts of regional black carbon over the climatological patterns of monsoons.The black carbon significantly absorbed the incoming short wave radiation in the atmosphere,a result that is consistent with previous studies.Pre-monsoon(March-April-May) rainfall showed positive anomalies,particularly for some coastal regions of India.The summer(June-July-August) rainfall anomalies were negative over the northern Himalayas,Myanmar,southern China,and most of the regions below 20°N due to the decrease in temperature gradients induced by the absorption of radiation by BC aerosols.The vertical wind speed anomalies indicated that these regions experienced less convection,which reduces the precipitation efficiency of the monsoon system in South Asia.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2020B0301030004)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975074)+2 种基金Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515010908)Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies(2020B1212060025)Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(311021001)。
文摘The future changes in the relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)and the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated by using the high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5)experiments from 26 coupled models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Six models,selected based on their best performance in simulating the upper-and lower-level pathways related to the SASM-EASM teleconnection in the historical run,can capture the positive relationship between the SASM and the rainfall over northern China.In the future scenario,the upper-level teleconnection wave pattern connecting the SASM and the EASM exhibits a significant weakening trend,due to the rainfall anomalies decrease over the northern Indian Peninsula in the future.At the lower level,the western North Pacific anticyclone is projected to strengthen in the warming climate.The positive(negative)rainfall anomalies associated with positive(negative)SASM rainfall anomalies are anticipated to extend southward from northern China to the Yangtze-Huai River valley,the Korea Peninsula,and southern Japan.The connection in the lower-level pathway may be strengthened in the future.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDB03020602) of the Chinese Academy of Sciencesby the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175072 and 41305073)
文摘The mid-Pliocene warm period was the most recent geological period in Earth＇s history that featured long-term warming. Both geological evidence and model results indicate that East Asian summer winds （EASWs） strengthened in monsoonal China, and that East Asian winter winds （EAWWs） weakened in northern monsoonal China during this period, as compared to the pre-industrial period. However, the corresponding mechanisms are still unclear. In this paper, the results of a set of numerical simulations are reported to analyze the effects of changed boundary conditions on the mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon climate, based on PRISM3 （Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping） palaeoenvironmental recon- struction. The model results showed that the combined changes of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and ice sheet extent were necessary to generate an overall warm climate on a large scale, and that these factors exerted the greatest effects on the strengthening of EASWs in monsoonal China. The orographic change produced significant local warming and had the greatest effect on the weakening of EAWWs in northern monsoonal China in the mid-Pliocene. Thus, these two factors both had important but different effects on the monsoon change. In comparison, the effects of vegetational change on the strengthened EASWs and weakened EAWWs were relatively weak. The changed monsoon winds can be ex- plained by a reorganization of the meridional temperature gradient and zonal thermal contrast. Moreover, the effect of orbital parameters cannot be ignored. Results showed that changes in orbital parameters could have marked!y affected the EASWs and EAWWs, and caused significant short-term oscillations in the mid-Pliocene monsoon climate in East Asia.
基金This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1404004)the Project of Indo-Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Air-sea Interactions(Grant No.GASIIPOVAI-06)+5 种基金the Basic Scientific Fund of the National Public Research Institute of China(Grant No.2019S06)Ying BAO was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0602200)Zhenya SONG was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41821004)the Basic Scientific Fund of the National Public Research Institute of China(Grant No.2016S03)the China–Korea Cooperation Project on Northwestern Pacific Climate Change and its PredictionAll numerical experiments were carried out at the Beijing Super Cloud Computing Center(BSCC).
文摘Three tiers of experiments in the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP),one of the endorsed model intercomparison projects of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),are implemented by the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2(FIO-ESM v2.0),following the GMMIP protocols.Evaluation of global mean surface air temperature from 1870 to 2014 and climatological precipitation(1979–2014)in tier-1 shows that the atmosphere model of FIO-ESM v2.0 can reproduce the basic observed atmospheric features.In tier-2,the internal variability is captured by the coupled model,with the SST restoring to the model climatology plus the observed anomalies in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic.Simulation of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation is significantly improved by the SST restoration in the North Atlantic.In tier-3,five orographic perturbation experiments are conducted covering the period 1979–2014 by modifying the surface elevation or vertical heating in the prescribed region.In particular,the strength of the South Asian summer monsoon is reduced by removing the topography or thermal forcing above 500 m over the Asian continent.Monthly and daily simulated outputs of FIO-ESM v2.0 are provided through the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF)node to contribute to a better understanding of the global monsoon system.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [grant number XDA19030403]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41606027 and 41706028]+1 种基金the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number2017YFA0604201]the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [grant number 2015M571095]
文摘With the motivation to improve the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in coupled climate models, oceanic data assimilation(DA) was used in CAS-ESM-C(Chinese Academy of Sciences–Earth System Model–Climate Component) in this study. Observed sea surface temperature was assimilated into CAS-ESM-C. The climatology and interannual variability of the EASM simulated in CAS-ESM-C with DA were compared with a traditional AMIP-type run.Results showed that the climatological spatial pattern and annual cycle of precipitation in the western North Paci?c, and the ENSO-related and EASM-related EASM circulation and precipitation, were largely improved. As shown in this study, air–sea coupling is important for EASM simulation. In addition, oceanic DA synchronizes the coupled model with the real world without breaking the air–sea coupling process. These two successful factors make the assimilation experiment a more reasonable experimental design than traditional AMIP-type simulations.
基金Project of In-Situ Observation and Research of Qinghai-Xizang Air-Earth Physics.
文摘Predominantly in the context of Japan GMS-derived T_(BB) data,study is undertaken of the relationship between the winter thermal conditions of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)and anomaly in Asian-Australian monsoons during northern summer.Evidence suggests that anti- correlation of cold air activity of East Asia with that of Mid Asia is responsible for the counterpart of the ground thermal characteristics anomaly on an interannual basis between the SW and NE QXP;the winter thermal pattern bears a closer correlativity with the subsequent summertime Asian-Australian monsoons anomaly;as the thermal distribution is reversed,so are the convection features over North and South China,maritime continent,the NW and SW Pacific at tropical and equatorial latitudes,resulting in vast difference between East-Asian summer and Indonesian-North Australian winter monsoons;the subtropical monsoon-associated rainbelt over the mid-lower Changjiang basins exhibits the discrepancy in vigor and northerly shift timing.Besides,part of the results has been further borne out through analysis of temperature and precipitation records of the eastern portion of the country in monsoon climate.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275025)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.2023084).
文摘This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics and potential mechanisms for their different persistence.Results suggest that both types of events are characterized by anomalously suppressed convection accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone during the break period.However,these convection and circulation anomalies exhibit more localized patterns for short-lived events,but possess larger spatial scales and stronger intensities for long-lived events.The influence of tropical intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs)on short-and long-lived events is explored to interpret their different durations.It is found that for short-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation is dominant in initiating and terminating the break,while the impact of the 30-60-day oscillation is secondary,thus resulting in a brief break period.In contrast,for long-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation contributes to break development rather than its initiation,and concurrently,the 30-60-day oscillation shows a remarkable enhancement and plays a decisive role in prolonging the break duration.Furthermore,we find that long-lived events are preceded by significant ISO activities approximately two weeks before their occurrence,which can be regarded as efficient predictors.Associated with these precursory ISOs,the occurrence probability of break days for long-lived events can rise up to triple their original probability(35.43%vs.11.21%).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFF0801701]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42105017].
文摘The South China Sea winter monsoon(SCSWM),an integral component of the East Asian winter monsoon,connects extratropical and tropical regions.Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis and PAMIP simulations,the relationship between Arctic sea ice and the SCSWM is investigated.The authors reveal that its strongest relationship with Arctic sea ice occurs in the North Pacific sector,i.e.,the Sea of Okhotsk and western Bering Sea.This link persists throughout the cold season,peaks when sea ice precedes the SCSWM by one month,and is independent of ENSO.North Pacific sea-ice loss weakens the meridional temperature gradient(MTG)and vertical wind shear in midlatitudes,reducing baroclinic eddy formation.Given the reduced zonal wind according to the thermal wind relation,the reduced wave activity flux in the upper troposphere must be balanced by equatorward wind based on the quasi-geostrophic momentum equation.This generates an anomalous meridional overturning circulation with descent and low-level divergence around 30°N,which intensifies the divergent component of the SCSWM.The divergent northerly anomalies also lead to cold advection and subtropical cooling.The enhanced MTG due to the subtropical cooling and weakened MTG due to high-latitude warming closely tied to reduced North Pacific sea ice displace the westerly jet southward,creating cyclonic shears over the North Pacific and intensifying the rotational component of the SCSWM.These findings establish North Pacific sea ice as a non-ENSO driver of the SCSWM,holding substantial implications for the predictability of the SCSWM.
基金the World Climate Research Programme(WCRP),Climate Variability and Predictability(CLIVAR),and Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)for facilitating the coordination of African monsoon researchsupport from the Center for Earth System Modeling,Analysis,and Data at the Pennsylvania State Universitythe support of the Office of Science of the U.S.Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional&Global Model Analysis(RGMA)program area。
文摘In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.
