This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics a...This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics and potential mechanisms for their different persistence.Results suggest that both types of events are characterized by anomalously suppressed convection accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone during the break period.However,these convection and circulation anomalies exhibit more localized patterns for short-lived events,but possess larger spatial scales and stronger intensities for long-lived events.The influence of tropical intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs)on short-and long-lived events is explored to interpret their different durations.It is found that for short-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation is dominant in initiating and terminating the break,while the impact of the 30-60-day oscillation is secondary,thus resulting in a brief break period.In contrast,for long-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation contributes to break development rather than its initiation,and concurrently,the 30-60-day oscillation shows a remarkable enhancement and plays a decisive role in prolonging the break duration.Furthermore,we find that long-lived events are preceded by significant ISO activities approximately two weeks before their occurrence,which can be regarded as efficient predictors.Associated with these precursory ISOs,the occurrence probability of break days for long-lived events can rise up to triple their original probability(35.43%vs.11.21%).展开更多
Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
The South China Sea winter monsoon(SCSWM),an integral component of the East Asian winter monsoon,connects extratropical and tropical regions.Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis and PAMIP simulations,the relationship between Arc...The South China Sea winter monsoon(SCSWM),an integral component of the East Asian winter monsoon,connects extratropical and tropical regions.Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis and PAMIP simulations,the relationship between Arctic sea ice and the SCSWM is investigated.The authors reveal that its strongest relationship with Arctic sea ice occurs in the North Pacific sector,i.e.,the Sea of Okhotsk and western Bering Sea.This link persists throughout the cold season,peaks when sea ice precedes the SCSWM by one month,and is independent of ENSO.North Pacific sea-ice loss weakens the meridional temperature gradient(MTG)and vertical wind shear in midlatitudes,reducing baroclinic eddy formation.Given the reduced zonal wind according to the thermal wind relation,the reduced wave activity flux in the upper troposphere must be balanced by equatorward wind based on the quasi-geostrophic momentum equation.This generates an anomalous meridional overturning circulation with descent and low-level divergence around 30°N,which intensifies the divergent component of the SCSWM.The divergent northerly anomalies also lead to cold advection and subtropical cooling.The enhanced MTG due to the subtropical cooling and weakened MTG due to high-latitude warming closely tied to reduced North Pacific sea ice displace the westerly jet southward,creating cyclonic shears over the North Pacific and intensifying the rotational component of the SCSWM.These findings establish North Pacific sea ice as a non-ENSO driver of the SCSWM,holding substantial implications for the predictability of the SCSWM.展开更多
The Australian monsoon system plays a pivotal role in the tropical climate system by modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)development through multi-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions.This study ident...The Australian monsoon system plays a pivotal role in the tropical climate system by modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)development through multi-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions.This study identifies a significant decadal weakening of the Australian cross-equatorial flow intensity over the past two decades,attributed to the concurrent westward shift of the Australian High(AH)during austral winter.These decadal changes in the Australian monsoon reduce tropical Pacific atmospheric convection and the associated westerly wind anomalies over the centralto-western Pacific,which are crucial precursors for ENSO development.This process diminishes air-sea coupling feedback,including the thermocline feedback and the Ekman feedback,ultimately decreasing the strength of warm ENSO(El Niño)events.Using the Community Earth System Model,we confirm the close linkage between the Australian monsoon and ENSO on the decadal timescale.These findings provide new insights into the coupled relationship between ENSO and monsoon variability,offering a valuable framework for understanding ENSO’s longterm modulation and improving future climate predictions.展开更多
Active atmospheric convection on the monsoon coast is crucial for the Earth’s climate system.In particular,the upscale convective growth(UCG)from ordinary isolated convection to organized convective system is a key p...Active atmospheric convection on the monsoon coast is crucial for the Earth’s climate system.In particular,the upscale convective growth(UCG)from ordinary isolated convection to organized convective system is a key process causing severe weather,but its activities on the monsoon coast are less understood because of the lack of fine-resolution datasets.For the first time,we present the climatology of UCG on a typical monsoon coast using kilometer-mesh radar data from southern China.The UCG undergoes pronounced subseasonal and diurnal variations in the early-summer rainy season.The subseasonal UCG increase is attributed to the onshore flows shifting from easterlies in April to monsoon southwesterlies in June.UCG becomes vigorous following summer monsoon onset,with hotspots near windward coastal mountains.Daytime UCG first peaks near noontime along coastal land,where onshore flows are destabilized by boundary-layer heating and mountains.Afternoon inland peaks and off-coast minimums are recognized due to land–sea thermal contrast and sea-breeze circulation.Nighttime UCG is revived at the coast by nocturnally enhanced southerlies,followed by offshore activity as the convergence of land-breeze northerlies shifts seaward.The UCG thus responds strongly to changing atmospheric conditions,land heating/cooling,and thermally driven local circulations.Our results may help clarify the predictability of monsoon coastal convection.展开更多
This study investigates the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the global land monsoon system during the Last Interglacial(LIG,127000 years BP)and the mid-Holocene(MH,6000 years BP)using the earth system model E...This study investigates the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the global land monsoon system during the Last Interglacial(LIG,127000 years BP)and the mid-Holocene(MH,6000 years BP)using the earth system model EC-Earth3.Our findings indicate that vegetation changes significantly influence the global monsoon area and precipitation patterns,especially in the North African and Indian monsoon regions.The North African monsoon region experienced the most substantial increase in vegetation during both the LIG and MH,resulting in significant increases in monsoonal precipitation by 9.8%and 6.0%,respectively.The vegetation feedback also intensified the Saharan Heat Low,strengthened monsoonal flows,and enhanced precipitation over the North African monsoon region.In contrast,the Indian monsoon region exhibited divergent responses to vegetation changes.During the LIG,precipitation in the Indian monsoon region decreased by 2.2%,while it increased by 1.6%during the MH.These differences highlight the complex and region-specific impacts of vegetation feedback on monsoon systems.Overall,this study demonstrates that vegetation feedback exerts distinct influences on the global monsoon during the MH and LIG.These findings highlight the importance of considering vegetation-climate feedback in understanding past monsoon variability and in predicting future climate change impacts on monsoon systems.展开更多
Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM...Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM2.0 aims to meet the demand for seamless climate prediction through accurate climate simulations and projections.This paper provides an overview of SYCIM2.0 and highlights its key features,especially the coupling of an unstructured ocean model and the tuning process.An extensive evaluation of its performance,focusing on the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),is presented based on long-term simulations with fixed external forcing.The results suggest that after nearly 240 years of integration,SYCIM2.0 achieves a quasi-equilibrium state,albeit with small trends in the net radiation flux at the top-of-atmosphere(TOA)and Earth’s surface,as well as with global mean near-surface temperatures.Compared to observational and reanalysis data,the model realistically simulates spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST)and precipitation centers to include their annual cycles,in addition to the lower-level wind fields in the EASM region.However,it exhibits a weakened and eastward-shifted Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH),resulting in an associated precipitation bias.SYCIM2.0 robustly captures the dominant mode of the EASM and its close relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)but exhibits relatively poor performance in simulating the second leading mode and the associated air–sea interaction processes.Further comprehensive evaluations of SYCIM2.0 will be conducted in future studies.展开更多
The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risk...The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.展开更多
Accurate subseasonal forecasting of East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)precipitation is crucial,as it directly impacts the livelihoods of billions.However,the prediction skill of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal(S...Accurate subseasonal forecasting of East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)precipitation is crucial,as it directly impacts the livelihoods of billions.However,the prediction skill of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)models for precipitation remains limited.In this study,the authors developed a convolutional neural network(CNN)regression model to enhance the prediction skill for weekly EASM precipitation by utilizing the more reliably predicted circulation fields from dynamic models.The outcomes of the CNN model are promising,as it led to a 14%increase in the anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC),from 0.30 to 0.35,and a 22%reduction in the root-mean-square error(RMSE),from 3.22 to 2.52,for predicting the weekly EASM precipitation index at a leading time of one week.Among the S2S models,the improvement in prediction skill through CNN correction depends on the model’s performance in accurately predicting circulation fields.The CNN correction of EASM precipitation index can only rectify the systematic errors of the model and is independent of whether the each grid point or the entire area-averaged index is corrected.Furthermore,u200(200-hPa zonal wind)is identified as the most important variable for efficient correction.展开更多
The raindrop size distribution(DSD) is a significant characteristic of precipitation physics,which plays a crucial role in improving the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimation and prediction.There is ...The raindrop size distribution(DSD) is a significant characteristic of precipitation physics,which plays a crucial role in improving the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimation and prediction.There is an effect of atmospheric circulation and weather sy stems in South China,with frequent precipitation and differences in regional features,resulting in a limited understanding of the DSD characteristics and their impact mechanisms in the region. In this study,six ground-based two-dimensional video di sdrometers(2DVDs) were used to analyze the DSD of inland and coastal in South China during the five-year(2016-2020) monsoon seasons(April to September),ERA5 reanalysis data and MODIS cloud property products were also used to investigate the dynamics and microphysical characteristics of monsoon precipitation.Compared to inland rainfall,coastal rainfall has a higher conentration of small,medium,and diameter of less than 4.7 mm large raindrops.Considering the contributions to precipitation,the inland and coastal rainfall are dominated by convective rain,accounting for 74.8% and 84.7% of the total rainfall,respectively.The coastal rainfall has a higher the mass-weiglited mean diameter(D_(m)) value than the inland rainfall D_(m) for both the stratiform and convective rainfall.The logarithmic mean of the generalized intercept parameter(log_(10)N_(w)) in inland stratiform rain is greater than that in coastal areas,while convective rain is relatively small.Due to the impact of precipitation types and climate conditions,The Z-R relationship between inland and coastal rainfall also shows obvious differences.Compared to inland areas,there is more frequent convective activity,relatively moist near-surface conditions,and lower cloud droplet number concentrations,which contribute to larger D_(m) of raindrops in coastal areas.This study deepens the understanding of changes in South China's coastal and inland DSD and provides support for improving numerical weather forecasting in the region.展开更多
Global land monsoon precipitation(GLMP)is highly sensitive to changes in interhemispheric thermal contrast(ITC).Amplified interhemispheric asymmetries of GLMP due to enhanced ITC driven by high-level anthropogenic emi...Global land monsoon precipitation(GLMP)is highly sensitive to changes in interhemispheric thermal contrast(ITC).Amplified interhemispheric asymmetries of GLMP due to enhanced ITC driven by high-level anthropogenic emissions are expected to simultaneously increase the probability of regional floods and droughts,threatening ecosystems within global terrestrial monsoon regions and the freshwater supply for billions of residents in these areas.In this study,the responses of GLMP to the evolution of ITC toward the carbon neutrality goal are assessed using multimodel outputs from a new model intercomparison project(CovidMIP).The results show that the Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere(NH-SH)asymmetry of GLMP in boreal summer weakens during the 2040s,as a persistent reduction in well-mixed greenhouse gas(WMGHG)emissions leads to a downward trend in the ITC after 2040.At the same time,the reduction in WMGHG emissions dampens the Eastern Hemisphere-Western Hemisphere(EH-WH)asymmetry of GLMP by inducing La Niña-like cooling and enhancing moisture transport to Inner America.The resulting increases in land monsoon precipitation(LMP)may alleviate drought under the global warming scenario by about 19%-25%and 7%-9%in the WH and SH monsoon regions,respectively.However,a persistent reduction in aerosol emissions in Asia will dominate the increases in LMP in this region until the mid-21st century,and these increases may be approximately 23%-60%of the growth under the global warming scenario.Our results highlight the different rates of response of aerosol and WMGHG concentrations to the carbon neutrality goal,leading to various changes in LMP at global and regional scales.展开更多
Based on the high-and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1(CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6), we compare the interannual variabili...Based on the high-and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1(CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6), we compare the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM). The EASM interannual variability is characterized by the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC) circulation and the dipole rainfall pattern with a negative southern lobe over the western North Pacific and a positive northern lobe along the Meiyu–Baiu region, which is better reproduced by the highresolution models. The reason for the improvement in the high-resolution models has been attributed to the better simulation of the warm temperature advection from the wind anomalies on the climatological temperature gradient. Positive sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are the key to the improved wind anomalies featuring a WNPAC in the high-resolution models. The warm SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean strengthen the WNPAC by triggering a Kelvin-wave response to the enhanced heat release induced by the increased precipitation. Based on the mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the warm SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean in the high-resolution CESM1 are tied to the anomalous easterly wind along the equator, which reduces surface evaporation and upwelling.Therefore, the better simulations of air–sea feedback and the oceanic mesoscale eddy over the western Indian Ocean are the key for the improved simulation of the EASM interannual variations in the high-resolution CESM1.展开更多
The annual maximum rainfall event(AMRE)refers to the maximum consecutive five-day rainfall in a year.In North China,these events account for 15%–80%of the total summer(June–August)rainfall amount and pose a great ch...The annual maximum rainfall event(AMRE)refers to the maximum consecutive five-day rainfall in a year.In North China,these events account for 15%–80%of the total summer(June–August)rainfall amount and pose a great challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.Based on data analyses during 1979–2023,this study shows the interannual variability of AMRE is significantly influenced by the phase and amplitude mode of the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),characterized by two orthogonal patterns of southeasterly winds at 850 h Pa over the northwestern Pacific.The EASM phase-locked AMRE shows heavy rainfall events occurring extremely early and late in Beijing and surrounding areas,corresponding to the peak southeasterly wind anomalies in June and August.The EASM amplitude-locked AMRE exhibits extreme heavy or light rainfall over southwest areas with normal phase.Therefore,AMRE has a potential predictability on the seasonal time scale due to its phase-and amplitude-locking with the slow variation of the annual cycle of the EASM.展开更多
The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain....The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.展开更多
Using a reanalysis dataset and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) models, this study investigated the southern and northern modes of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and their respective relations...Using a reanalysis dataset and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) models, this study investigated the southern and northern modes of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and their respective relationships with the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The EAWM northern mode(EAWM_N) exhibited a consistent and strong connection with the mid-and high-latitude atmospheric circulation during 1979–2013, resembling the Eurasian teleconnection pattern. The positive phase of this pattern enhanced the sea-land pressure gradient across the mid-latitude East Asia and strengthened northerly winds flowing from high latitudes to South China, resulting in a strong EAWM_N. The relationship between the EAWM_N and ENSO shifted from insignificant to significant in the late 1990s, coinciding with a westward transition of the Walker circulation. In contrast, the EAWM southern mode(EAWM_S) was closely associated with an anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea and exhibited a stable, robust inverse correlation with ENSO.Projections from 12 CMIP6 models indicated that the unstable negative correlation of EAWM_N with ENSO would intensify, while the robust linkage between EAWM_S and ENSO was expected to persist under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Additionally, increased future variability in the Ni?o 3.4 index, driven by external forcing, corresponded well to enhanced variability of EAWM_S. These findings underscore the necessity for further research into the distinct behaviors of the northern and southern EAWM modes under the background of ongoing climate warming.展开更多
This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the So...This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) and the associated mechanisms. During summer, the ENSO-independent SST component dominates across tropical ocean regions. The tropical ENSO-independent SSTs during spring and summer in the Maritime Continent(MC), the equatorial central-eastern Pacific(CEP), and the tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO) regions play a comparably significant role in the interannual variation of the SCSSM intensity, compared to the tropical SST dependent on the preceding winter ENSO. The ENSO-independent SST anomalies(SSTA) in the TAO during spring and summer exhibit significant persistence. They can influence the SCSSM through westward propagation of teleconnection, as well as through eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. In summer, the SSTA in the MC, CEP, and TAO regions contribute jointly to the variability of the SCSSM. The MC SSTA affects local convection and generates anomalous meridional circulation to impact the SCSSM intensity. The CEP SSTA directly influences the SCSSM via the Matsuno-Gill response mechanism and indirectly affects it via meridional circulation by modulating vertical motions over the MC through zonal circulation. The TAO SSTA impacts the SCSSM through both westward and eastward pathways, as well as by influencing zonal circulation patterns in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific. The results offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the interannual variability of the SCSSM intensity.展开更多
This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During...This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During Y0,monsoon precipitation surpasses climatological values,presenting a tripole spatial pattern,whereas Y1 is characterized by below-normal precipitation with a dipole pattern.In certain regions,the difference in precipitation between Y0 and Y1 reaches up to 3 mm day–1.This work provides further insight into the key tropical ocean regions driving the precipitation distinction,and elucidates their coupling mechanisms with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies.Influenced by the development of earlier ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns,the Tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific(TIO-WP)warming(cooling)is significant during the summer of Y0(Y1).The elevated sea surface temperature(SST)in Y0 supports an anomalous Western North Pacific(WNP)anticyclone via a Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence mechanism.This anomalous anticyclone intensifies the suppressed convection over the WNP,which results in increased divergence in the upper-level troposphere over the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions,thereby boosting convection.Simultaneously,the easterly winds associated with the strengthened equatorial latitude SST anomaly(SSTA)gradient and the anomalous anticyclone intensified,transporting a large amount of water vapor to the west.The combined moisture and dynamic conditions support the enhanced precipitation in the South Asian region.展开更多
Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field i...Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.展开更多
The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface te...The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective weather.This two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this region.Part I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm evolutions.The rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold outflows.This intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and convergence.Based on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple point.Developed over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level mesovortex.It is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical simulations.The findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear environment.Improved knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.展开更多
As demonstrated in the first part of this study(Part I),wind-shift boundaries routinely form along the west coast of the Pearl River Delta due to the land-sea contrast of a“trumpet”shape coastline in the summer mons...As demonstrated in the first part of this study(Part I),wind-shift boundaries routinely form along the west coast of the Pearl River Delta due to the land-sea contrast of a“trumpet”shape coastline in the summer monsoon season.Through multiple numerical simulations,this article(Part II)aims to examine the roles of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the mesovortex genesis during the 1 June 2020 tornadic event.The modeling reproduced two mesovortices that are in close proximity in time and space to the realistic mesovortices.In addition to the modeled mesovortex over the triple point where strong ambient vertical vorticity was located,another mesovortex originated from an enhanced discrete vortex along an airmass boundary via shear instability.On the fine-scale storm morphology,finger-like echoes preceding hook echoes were also reproduced around the triple point.Results from sensitivity experiments suggest that the unique topography plays an essential role in modifying the vorticity budget during the mesovortex formation.While there is a high likelihood of an upcoming storm evolving into a rotating storm over the triple point,the simulation's accuracy is sensitive to the local environmental details and storm dynamics.The strengths of cold pool surges from upstream storms may influence the stretching of low-level vertically oriented vortex and thus the wrap-up of finger-like echoes.These findings suggest that the trumpet-shaped coastline is an important component of mesovortex production during the active monsoon season.It is hoped that this study will increase the situational awareness for forecasters regarding regional non-mesocyclone tornadic environments.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275025)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.2023084).
文摘This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics and potential mechanisms for their different persistence.Results suggest that both types of events are characterized by anomalously suppressed convection accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone during the break period.However,these convection and circulation anomalies exhibit more localized patterns for short-lived events,but possess larger spatial scales and stronger intensities for long-lived events.The influence of tropical intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs)on short-and long-lived events is explored to interpret their different durations.It is found that for short-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation is dominant in initiating and terminating the break,while the impact of the 30-60-day oscillation is secondary,thus resulting in a brief break period.In contrast,for long-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation contributes to break development rather than its initiation,and concurrently,the 30-60-day oscillation shows a remarkable enhancement and plays a decisive role in prolonging the break duration.Furthermore,we find that long-lived events are preceded by significant ISO activities approximately two weeks before their occurrence,which can be regarded as efficient predictors.Associated with these precursory ISOs,the occurrence probability of break days for long-lived events can rise up to triple their original probability(35.43%vs.11.21%).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFF0801701]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42105017].
文摘The South China Sea winter monsoon(SCSWM),an integral component of the East Asian winter monsoon,connects extratropical and tropical regions.Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis and PAMIP simulations,the relationship between Arctic sea ice and the SCSWM is investigated.The authors reveal that its strongest relationship with Arctic sea ice occurs in the North Pacific sector,i.e.,the Sea of Okhotsk and western Bering Sea.This link persists throughout the cold season,peaks when sea ice precedes the SCSWM by one month,and is independent of ENSO.North Pacific sea-ice loss weakens the meridional temperature gradient(MTG)and vertical wind shear in midlatitudes,reducing baroclinic eddy formation.Given the reduced zonal wind according to the thermal wind relation,the reduced wave activity flux in the upper troposphere must be balanced by equatorward wind based on the quasi-geostrophic momentum equation.This generates an anomalous meridional overturning circulation with descent and low-level divergence around 30°N,which intensifies the divergent component of the SCSWM.The divergent northerly anomalies also lead to cold advection and subtropical cooling.The enhanced MTG due to the subtropical cooling and weakened MTG due to high-latitude warming closely tied to reduced North Pacific sea ice displace the westerly jet southward,creating cyclonic shears over the North Pacific and intensifying the rotational component of the SCSWM.These findings establish North Pacific sea ice as a non-ENSO driver of the SCSWM,holding substantial implications for the predictability of the SCSWM.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42105052 and 42376016the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)under contract No.SML2024SP012.
文摘The Australian monsoon system plays a pivotal role in the tropical climate system by modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)development through multi-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions.This study identifies a significant decadal weakening of the Australian cross-equatorial flow intensity over the past two decades,attributed to the concurrent westward shift of the Australian High(AH)during austral winter.These decadal changes in the Australian monsoon reduce tropical Pacific atmospheric convection and the associated westerly wind anomalies over the centralto-western Pacific,which are crucial precursors for ENSO development.This process diminishes air-sea coupling feedback,including the thermocline feedback and the Ekman feedback,ultimately decreasing the strength of warm ENSO(El Niño)events.Using the Community Earth System Model,we confirm the close linkage between the Australian monsoon and ENSO on the decadal timescale.These findings provide new insights into the coupled relationship between ENSO and monsoon variability,offering a valuable framework for understanding ENSO’s longterm modulation and improving future climate predictions.
基金the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(Grant No.2020B0301030004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275002 and 42275006)+1 种基金the National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China(Grant Nos.ZDJ2024-01 and ZDJ2024-25)the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province(Grant No.2023B1212060019).
文摘Active atmospheric convection on the monsoon coast is crucial for the Earth’s climate system.In particular,the upscale convective growth(UCG)from ordinary isolated convection to organized convective system is a key process causing severe weather,but its activities on the monsoon coast are less understood because of the lack of fine-resolution datasets.For the first time,we present the climatology of UCG on a typical monsoon coast using kilometer-mesh radar data from southern China.The UCG undergoes pronounced subseasonal and diurnal variations in the early-summer rainy season.The subseasonal UCG increase is attributed to the onshore flows shifting from easterlies in April to monsoon southwesterlies in June.UCG becomes vigorous following summer monsoon onset,with hotspots near windward coastal mountains.Daytime UCG first peaks near noontime along coastal land,where onshore flows are destabilized by boundary-layer heating and mountains.Afternoon inland peaks and off-coast minimums are recognized due to land–sea thermal contrast and sea-breeze circulation.Nighttime UCG is revived at the coast by nocturnally enhanced southerlies,followed by offshore activity as the convergence of land-breeze northerlies shifts seaward.The UCG thus responds strongly to changing atmospheric conditions,land heating/cooling,and thermally driven local circulations.Our results may help clarify the predictability of monsoon coastal convection.
基金supported by the Swedish Research Council(Vetenskapsradet,Grant No.202203129)the Project of Youth Science and Technology Fund of Gansu Province(Grant No.24JRRA439)partially funded by the Swedish Research Council(Vetenskapsradet,Grant No.2022-06725)。
文摘This study investigates the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the global land monsoon system during the Last Interglacial(LIG,127000 years BP)and the mid-Holocene(MH,6000 years BP)using the earth system model EC-Earth3.Our findings indicate that vegetation changes significantly influence the global monsoon area and precipitation patterns,especially in the North African and Indian monsoon regions.The North African monsoon region experienced the most substantial increase in vegetation during both the LIG and MH,resulting in significant increases in monsoonal precipitation by 9.8%and 6.0%,respectively.The vegetation feedback also intensified the Saharan Heat Low,strengthened monsoonal flows,and enhanced precipitation over the North African monsoon region.In contrast,the Indian monsoon region exhibited divergent responses to vegetation changes.During the LIG,precipitation in the Indian monsoon region decreased by 2.2%,while it increased by 1.6%during the MH.These differences highlight the complex and region-specific impacts of vegetation feedback on monsoon systems.Overall,this study demonstrates that vegetation feedback exerts distinct influences on the global monsoon during the MH and LIG.These findings highlight the importance of considering vegetation-climate feedback in understanding past monsoon variability and in predicting future climate change impacts on monsoon systems.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U21A6001,42261144687,42175173)the Project supported by Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(Grant No.SML2023SP208)the GuangDong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515240036).
文摘Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM2.0 aims to meet the demand for seamless climate prediction through accurate climate simulations and projections.This paper provides an overview of SYCIM2.0 and highlights its key features,especially the coupling of an unstructured ocean model and the tuning process.An extensive evaluation of its performance,focusing on the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),is presented based on long-term simulations with fixed external forcing.The results suggest that after nearly 240 years of integration,SYCIM2.0 achieves a quasi-equilibrium state,albeit with small trends in the net radiation flux at the top-of-atmosphere(TOA)and Earth’s surface,as well as with global mean near-surface temperatures.Compared to observational and reanalysis data,the model realistically simulates spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST)and precipitation centers to include their annual cycles,in addition to the lower-level wind fields in the EASM region.However,it exhibits a weakened and eastward-shifted Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH),resulting in an associated precipitation bias.SYCIM2.0 robustly captures the dominant mode of the EASM and its close relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)but exhibits relatively poor performance in simulating the second leading mode and the associated air–sea interaction processes.Further comprehensive evaluations of SYCIM2.0 will be conducted in future studies.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608904)the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.060GJHZ2023079GC and 134111KYSB20160031)+1 种基金supported by the Office of Science,U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling(WACCEM)scientific focus areaoperated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830。
文摘The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.
基金supported by a Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research[grant number 2020B0301030004]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42175061]。
文摘Accurate subseasonal forecasting of East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)precipitation is crucial,as it directly impacts the livelihoods of billions.However,the prediction skill of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)models for precipitation remains limited.In this study,the authors developed a convolutional neural network(CNN)regression model to enhance the prediction skill for weekly EASM precipitation by utilizing the more reliably predicted circulation fields from dynamic models.The outcomes of the CNN model are promising,as it led to a 14%increase in the anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC),from 0.30 to 0.35,and a 22%reduction in the root-mean-square error(RMSE),from 3.22 to 2.52,for predicting the weekly EASM precipitation index at a leading time of one week.Among the S2S models,the improvement in prediction skill through CNN correction depends on the model’s performance in accurately predicting circulation fields.The CNN correction of EASM precipitation index can only rectify the systematic errors of the model and is independent of whether the each grid point or the entire area-averaged index is corrected.Furthermore,u200(200-hPa zonal wind)is identified as the most important variable for efficient correction.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203, 41975138, 42075086, 42275008)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2023A1515011971)Science Technology Research Program of Guangdong Meteorological Service (GRMC2021Q01)。
文摘The raindrop size distribution(DSD) is a significant characteristic of precipitation physics,which plays a crucial role in improving the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimation and prediction.There is an effect of atmospheric circulation and weather sy stems in South China,with frequent precipitation and differences in regional features,resulting in a limited understanding of the DSD characteristics and their impact mechanisms in the region. In this study,six ground-based two-dimensional video di sdrometers(2DVDs) were used to analyze the DSD of inland and coastal in South China during the five-year(2016-2020) monsoon seasons(April to September),ERA5 reanalysis data and MODIS cloud property products were also used to investigate the dynamics and microphysical characteristics of monsoon precipitation.Compared to inland rainfall,coastal rainfall has a higher conentration of small,medium,and diameter of less than 4.7 mm large raindrops.Considering the contributions to precipitation,the inland and coastal rainfall are dominated by convective rain,accounting for 74.8% and 84.7% of the total rainfall,respectively.The coastal rainfall has a higher the mass-weiglited mean diameter(D_(m)) value than the inland rainfall D_(m) for both the stratiform and convective rainfall.The logarithmic mean of the generalized intercept parameter(log_(10)N_(w)) in inland stratiform rain is greater than that in coastal areas,while convective rain is relatively small.Due to the impact of precipitation types and climate conditions,The Z-R relationship between inland and coastal rainfall also shows obvious differences.Compared to inland areas,there is more frequent convective activity,relatively moist near-surface conditions,and lower cloud droplet number concentrations,which contribute to larger D_(m) of raindrops in coastal areas.This study deepens the understanding of changes in South China's coastal and inland DSD and provides support for improving numerical weather forecasting in the region.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275039)the Meteorological Joint Fund by NSF and CMA(Grant No.U2342224)+1 种基金the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3701202)the S&T Development Fund of CAMS(Grant No.2024KJ019)。
文摘Global land monsoon precipitation(GLMP)is highly sensitive to changes in interhemispheric thermal contrast(ITC).Amplified interhemispheric asymmetries of GLMP due to enhanced ITC driven by high-level anthropogenic emissions are expected to simultaneously increase the probability of regional floods and droughts,threatening ecosystems within global terrestrial monsoon regions and the freshwater supply for billions of residents in these areas.In this study,the responses of GLMP to the evolution of ITC toward the carbon neutrality goal are assessed using multimodel outputs from a new model intercomparison project(CovidMIP).The results show that the Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere(NH-SH)asymmetry of GLMP in boreal summer weakens during the 2040s,as a persistent reduction in well-mixed greenhouse gas(WMGHG)emissions leads to a downward trend in the ITC after 2040.At the same time,the reduction in WMGHG emissions dampens the Eastern Hemisphere-Western Hemisphere(EH-WH)asymmetry of GLMP by inducing La Niña-like cooling and enhancing moisture transport to Inner America.The resulting increases in land monsoon precipitation(LMP)may alleviate drought under the global warming scenario by about 19%-25%and 7%-9%in the WH and SH monsoon regions,respectively.However,a persistent reduction in aerosol emissions in Asia will dominate the increases in LMP in this region until the mid-21st century,and these increases may be approximately 23%-60%of the growth under the global warming scenario.Our results highlight the different rates of response of aerosol and WMGHG concentrations to the carbon neutrality goal,leading to various changes in LMP at global and regional scales.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant Nos.42275018 (L.D.) and 42175029 (F.S.)]the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Fund for Excellent Young Scientists Fund Program (Overseas) [Grant No.2022HWYQ-065 (L.D.)]+3 种基金the Taishan Scholars Program of Shandong Province [Grant No.tsqn202211068 (L.D.)]the Fund of Laoshan Laboratory [Grant Nos.LSKJ202202602 (L.D.) and LSKJ202202201 (F.S.)]financially supported by Laoshan Laboratory (Grant No.LSKJ202300302)supported by the Office of Science, U.S.Department of Energy (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling (WACCEM) scientific focus area funded by the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area。
文摘Based on the high-and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1(CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6), we compare the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM). The EASM interannual variability is characterized by the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC) circulation and the dipole rainfall pattern with a negative southern lobe over the western North Pacific and a positive northern lobe along the Meiyu–Baiu region, which is better reproduced by the highresolution models. The reason for the improvement in the high-resolution models has been attributed to the better simulation of the warm temperature advection from the wind anomalies on the climatological temperature gradient. Positive sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are the key to the improved wind anomalies featuring a WNPAC in the high-resolution models. The warm SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean strengthen the WNPAC by triggering a Kelvin-wave response to the enhanced heat release induced by the increased precipitation. Based on the mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the warm SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean in the high-resolution CESM1 are tied to the anomalous easterly wind along the equator, which reduces surface evaporation and upwelling.Therefore, the better simulations of air–sea feedback and the oceanic mesoscale eddy over the western Indian Ocean are the key for the improved simulation of the EASM interannual variations in the high-resolution CESM1.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2242205 and 42375033)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(Grant No.2019QZKK0105)+1 种基金the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS(2023Z018)the S&T Development Fund of CAMS(Grant No.2023KJ036)。
文摘The annual maximum rainfall event(AMRE)refers to the maximum consecutive five-day rainfall in a year.In North China,these events account for 15%–80%of the total summer(June–August)rainfall amount and pose a great challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.Based on data analyses during 1979–2023,this study shows the interannual variability of AMRE is significantly influenced by the phase and amplitude mode of the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),characterized by two orthogonal patterns of southeasterly winds at 850 h Pa over the northwestern Pacific.The EASM phase-locked AMRE shows heavy rainfall events occurring extremely early and late in Beijing and surrounding areas,corresponding to the peak southeasterly wind anomalies in June and August.The EASM amplitude-locked AMRE exhibits extreme heavy or light rainfall over southwest areas with normal phase.Therefore,AMRE has a potential predictability on the seasonal time scale due to its phase-and amplitude-locking with the slow variation of the annual cycle of the EASM.
基金supported by the Australian Research Council(Grant No.CE230100012)。
文摘The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004)。
文摘Using a reanalysis dataset and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) models, this study investigated the southern and northern modes of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and their respective relationships with the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The EAWM northern mode(EAWM_N) exhibited a consistent and strong connection with the mid-and high-latitude atmospheric circulation during 1979–2013, resembling the Eurasian teleconnection pattern. The positive phase of this pattern enhanced the sea-land pressure gradient across the mid-latitude East Asia and strengthened northerly winds flowing from high latitudes to South China, resulting in a strong EAWM_N. The relationship between the EAWM_N and ENSO shifted from insignificant to significant in the late 1990s, coinciding with a westward transition of the Walker circulation. In contrast, the EAWM southern mode(EAWM_S) was closely associated with an anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea and exhibited a stable, robust inverse correlation with ENSO.Projections from 12 CMIP6 models indicated that the unstable negative correlation of EAWM_N with ENSO would intensify, while the robust linkage between EAWM_S and ENSO was expected to persist under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Additionally, increased future variability in the Ni?o 3.4 index, driven by external forcing, corresponded well to enhanced variability of EAWM_S. These findings underscore the necessity for further research into the distinct behaviors of the northern and southern EAWM modes under the background of ongoing climate warming.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175018, 42175020)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province (2023B1212060019)+1 种基金Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)(311024001)Project supported by Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)(SML2023SP209)。
文摘This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) and the associated mechanisms. During summer, the ENSO-independent SST component dominates across tropical ocean regions. The tropical ENSO-independent SSTs during spring and summer in the Maritime Continent(MC), the equatorial central-eastern Pacific(CEP), and the tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO) regions play a comparably significant role in the interannual variation of the SCSSM intensity, compared to the tropical SST dependent on the preceding winter ENSO. The ENSO-independent SST anomalies(SSTA) in the TAO during spring and summer exhibit significant persistence. They can influence the SCSSM through westward propagation of teleconnection, as well as through eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. In summer, the SSTA in the MC, CEP, and TAO regions contribute jointly to the variability of the SCSSM. The MC SSTA affects local convection and generates anomalous meridional circulation to impact the SCSSM intensity. The CEP SSTA directly influences the SCSSM via the Matsuno-Gill response mechanism and indirectly affects it via meridional circulation by modulating vertical motions over the MC through zonal circulation. The TAO SSTA impacts the SCSSM through both westward and eastward pathways, as well as by influencing zonal circulation patterns in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific. The results offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the interannual variability of the SCSSM intensity.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805300)Civilian Space Programme of China(D040305)。
文摘This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During Y0,monsoon precipitation surpasses climatological values,presenting a tripole spatial pattern,whereas Y1 is characterized by below-normal precipitation with a dipole pattern.In certain regions,the difference in precipitation between Y0 and Y1 reaches up to 3 mm day–1.This work provides further insight into the key tropical ocean regions driving the precipitation distinction,and elucidates their coupling mechanisms with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies.Influenced by the development of earlier ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns,the Tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific(TIO-WP)warming(cooling)is significant during the summer of Y0(Y1).The elevated sea surface temperature(SST)in Y0 supports an anomalous Western North Pacific(WNP)anticyclone via a Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence mechanism.This anomalous anticyclone intensifies the suppressed convection over the WNP,which results in increased divergence in the upper-level troposphere over the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions,thereby boosting convection.Simultaneously,the easterly winds associated with the strengthened equatorial latitude SST anomaly(SSTA)gradient and the anomalous anticyclone intensified,transporting a large amount of water vapor to the west.The combined moisture and dynamic conditions support the enhanced precipitation in the South Asian region.
基金study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42230605 and 41721004).
文摘Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.
基金supported by the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(Grant No.2020B0301030004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275006 and 42030604)+1 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515011705)the Science and Technology Research Project for Society of Foshan(Grant No.2120001008761).
文摘The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective weather.This two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this region.Part I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm evolutions.The rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold outflows.This intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and convergence.Based on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple point.Developed over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level mesovortex.It is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical simulations.The findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear environment.Improved knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2242203,42275006,and 42030604)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011705)the Science and Technology Research Project for Society of Foshan(2120001008761).
文摘As demonstrated in the first part of this study(Part I),wind-shift boundaries routinely form along the west coast of the Pearl River Delta due to the land-sea contrast of a“trumpet”shape coastline in the summer monsoon season.Through multiple numerical simulations,this article(Part II)aims to examine the roles of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the mesovortex genesis during the 1 June 2020 tornadic event.The modeling reproduced two mesovortices that are in close proximity in time and space to the realistic mesovortices.In addition to the modeled mesovortex over the triple point where strong ambient vertical vorticity was located,another mesovortex originated from an enhanced discrete vortex along an airmass boundary via shear instability.On the fine-scale storm morphology,finger-like echoes preceding hook echoes were also reproduced around the triple point.Results from sensitivity experiments suggest that the unique topography plays an essential role in modifying the vorticity budget during the mesovortex formation.While there is a high likelihood of an upcoming storm evolving into a rotating storm over the triple point,the simulation's accuracy is sensitive to the local environmental details and storm dynamics.The strengths of cold pool surges from upstream storms may influence the stretching of low-level vertically oriented vortex and thus the wrap-up of finger-like echoes.These findings suggest that the trumpet-shaped coastline is an important component of mesovortex production during the active monsoon season.It is hoped that this study will increase the situational awareness for forecasters regarding regional non-mesocyclone tornadic environments.
