As the main food source for humans, the global movement of the three major grains significantly impacts human survival and development. To investigate the evolution of the world cereal trade network and its developmen...As the main food source for humans, the global movement of the three major grains significantly impacts human survival and development. To investigate the evolution of the world cereal trade network and its development trend, a weighted directed dynamic multiplexed network was established using historical data on cereal trade, cereal import dependency ratio, and arable land per capita. Inspired by the MLP framework, we redefined the weight determination method for computing layer weights and edge weights of the target layer, modified the CN, RA, AA, and PA indicators, and proposed the node similarity indicator for weighted directed networks. The AUC metric, which measures the accuracy of the algorithm, has also been improved in order to finally obtain the link prediction results for the grain trading network. The prediction results were processed, such as web-based presentation and community partition. It was found that the number of generalized trade agreements does not have a decisive impact on inter-country cereal trade. The former large grain exporters continue to play an important role in this trade network. In the future, the world trade in cereals will develop in the direction of more frequent intercontinental trade and gradually weaken the intracontinental cereal trade.展开更多
文摘As the main food source for humans, the global movement of the three major grains significantly impacts human survival and development. To investigate the evolution of the world cereal trade network and its development trend, a weighted directed dynamic multiplexed network was established using historical data on cereal trade, cereal import dependency ratio, and arable land per capita. Inspired by the MLP framework, we redefined the weight determination method for computing layer weights and edge weights of the target layer, modified the CN, RA, AA, and PA indicators, and proposed the node similarity indicator for weighted directed networks. The AUC metric, which measures the accuracy of the algorithm, has also been improved in order to finally obtain the link prediction results for the grain trading network. The prediction results were processed, such as web-based presentation and community partition. It was found that the number of generalized trade agreements does not have a decisive impact on inter-country cereal trade. The former large grain exporters continue to play an important role in this trade network. In the future, the world trade in cereals will develop in the direction of more frequent intercontinental trade and gradually weaken the intracontinental cereal trade.
