Objective: To verify phylogeography and genetic structure of Acanthamoeba populations among the Iranian clinical isolates and natural/artificial environments distributed in various regions of the country.Methods: We s...Objective: To verify phylogeography and genetic structure of Acanthamoeba populations among the Iranian clinical isolates and natural/artificial environments distributed in various regions of the country.Methods: We searched electronic databases including Medline, Pub Med, Science Direct, Scopus and Google Scholar from 2005 to 2016. To explore the genetic variability of Acanthamoeba sp, 205 sequences were retrieved from keratitis patients, immunosuppressed cases and environmental sources as of various geographies of Iran.Results: T4 genotype was the predominant strain in Iran, and the rare genotypes belonged to T2, T3, T5(Acanthamoeba lenticulata), T6, T9, T11, T13 and T15(Acanthamoeba jacobsi).A total of 47 unique haplotypes of T4 were identified. A parsimonious network of the sequence haplotypes demonstrated star-like feature containing haplogroups IR6(34.1%) and IR7(31.2%) as the most common haplotypes. In accordance with the analysis of molecular variance, the high value of haplotype diversity(0.612–0.848) of Acanthamoeba T4 represented genetic variability within populations. Neutrality indices of the 18 S ribosomal RNA demonstrated negative values in all populations which represented a considerable divergence from neutrality. The majority of genetic diversity belonged to the infected contact lens and dust samples in immunodeficiency and ophthalmology wards, which indicated potential routes for exposure to a pathogenic Acanthamoeba sp. in at-risk individuals. A pairwise fixation index(FST) was from low to high values(0.024 33–0.418 92). The statistically FST points out that T4 is genetically differentiated between north-west, north-south and centralsouth metapopulations, but not differentiated between west-central, west-south, centralsouth, and north-central isolates.Conclusions: An occurrence of IR6 and IR7 displays that possibly a gene flow of Acanthamoeba T4 occurred after the founder effect or bottleneck experience through ecological changes or host mobility. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis providing new approaches into gene migration and transmission patterns of Acanthamoeba sp, and targeting at the high-risk individuals/sources among the various regions of Iran.展开更多
Livestock transportation is a key factor that contributes to the spatial spread of brucellosis.To analyze the impact of sheep transportation on brucellosis transmission,we develop a human–sheep coupled brucellosis mo...Livestock transportation is a key factor that contributes to the spatial spread of brucellosis.To analyze the impact of sheep transportation on brucellosis transmission,we develop a human–sheep coupled brucellosis model within a metapopulation network framework.Theoretically,we examine the positively invariant set,the basic reproduction number,the existence,uniqueness,and stability of disease-free equilibrium and the existence of the endemic equilibrium of the model.For practical application,using Heilongjiang province as a case study,we simulate brucellosis transmission across 12 cities based on data using three network types:the BA network,the ER network,and homogeneous mixing network.The simulation results indicate that the network's average degree plays a role in the spread of brucellosis.For BA and ER networks,the basic reproduction number and cumulative incidence of brucellosis stabilize when the network's average degree reaches 4 or 5.In contrast,sheep transport in a homogeneous mixing network accelerates the cross-regional spread of brucellosis,whereas transportation in a BA network helps to control it effectively.Furthermore,the findings suggest that the movement of sheep is not always detrimental to controlling the spread of brucellosis.For cities with smaller sheep populations,such as Shuangyashan and Qitaihe,increasing the transport of sheep outward amplifies the spatial spread of the disease.In contrast,in cities with larger sheep populations,such as Qiqihar,Daqing,and Suihua,moderate sheep outflow can help reduce the spread.In addition,cities with large livestock populations play a dominant role in the overall transmission dynamics,underscoring the need for stricter supervision in these areas.展开更多
Behavioral research has long had an important role in the conservation of terns （Ayes： Stemidae）. Habitat management and restoration of breeding colony sites depends on knowledge of the cues used to select colony a...Behavioral research has long had an important role in the conservation of terns （Ayes： Stemidae）. Habitat management and restoration of breeding colony sites depends on knowledge of the cues used to select colony and nest sites. For example, conspecific attraction with playback and decoys is commonly used to bring terns to suitable colony sites and habitat modification is often used to increase the availability of suitable nest sites. Tern colonies are interconnected by dispersal, and a metapopulation approach is needed for effective management. Population dynamics are therefore affected by behaviors that influence the frequency of movement among colony sites： site fidelity, natal and breeding dispersal, and group adherence. The monogamous breeding system of terns should keep effective population size similar to census population size, but variation in sex ratios （likely resulting from sex differences in behavior） and in parental quality can result in a smaller than expected effective population size. In addition to the behavior of terns, knowledge of the behavior of predators on terns contributes to management plans, because predator behavior can sometimes be manipulated and predation is often performed by only a few specialized individuals. Other examples of links between tern behavior and conservation are also briefly reviewed, such as behavioral toxicology research and studies of behavioral responses to human disturbance and manmade structures. More work is needed on the behavior of migratory terns at staging sites, stopover sites and wintering grounds, and on the behavior of less well-studied species and species in less well-studied geographic regions [Current Zoology 60 （4）： 500-514, 2014].展开更多
We investigate the stochastic resonance （SR） phenomenon induced by the periodic signal in a metapopulation system with colored noises. The analytical expression of signal-to-noise is derived in the adiabatic limit. ...We investigate the stochastic resonance （SR） phenomenon induced by the periodic signal in a metapopulation system with colored noises. The analytical expression of signal-to-noise is derived in the adiabatic limit. By numerical calculation, the effects of the addictive noise intensity, the multiplicative noise intensity and two noise self-correlation times on SNR are respectively discussed. It shows that： （i） in the case that the addictive noise intensity M takes a small value, a SR phenomenon for the curve of SNR appears; however, when M takes a large value, SNR turns into a monotonic function on the multiplicative noise intensity Q. （ii） The resonance peaks in the plots of the multiplicative noise intensity Q versus its self-correlation time Vl and the addictive noise intensity M versus its self-correlation time ~2 translate in parallel. Mean- while, a parallel translation also appears in the plots of vl versus Q and v2 versus M. （iii） The interactive effects between self-correlation times Vl and v2 are opposite.展开更多
Hydrobiidae is one of the most diverse taxa among limnic and estuarine mollusks. Patterns of spatial and seasonal distribution of Heleobia australis were studied in ten stations over two years, in the urban eutrophic ...Hydrobiidae is one of the most diverse taxa among limnic and estuarine mollusks. Patterns of spatial and seasonal distribution of Heleobia australis were studied in ten stations over two years, in the urban eutrophic bay of Guanabara, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Spatial dispersal strategies in adults of this species, analyzed in the laboratory, revealed three patterns: 1) mobility on soft sediments;2) mobility on hard substrata;and 3) the ability to lift from the bottom to the surface, to again sink down. This facilitate species movement from one location to another by surface currents or attached to floating debris. Thus, individuals are able to escape from an impacted area and further re-colonize other patches after recovering from local impacts. The hypothesis of metapopulation dynamics (source– sink) was analyzed. Two stations with high and constant numbers of individuals were grouped and tested as possible ‘sources’. The number of specimens in the remaining stations was highly variable, even with the complete disappearance and posterior highly dense re-occurrence of the mollusk, whereby these were tested as possible ‘sinks’. Results derived from nested ANOVA supported the hypothesis of metapopulation dynamics in the case of H. australis adults, ex-pressed through opportunistic-species domi- nation of a highly impacted estuarine system, such as Guanabara Bay.展开更多
The research on spatial epidemic models is a topic of considerable recent interest. In another hand, the advances in computer technology have stimulated the development of stochastic models. Metapopulation models are ...The research on spatial epidemic models is a topic of considerable recent interest. In another hand, the advances in computer technology have stimulated the development of stochastic models. Metapopulation models are spatial designs that involve movements of individuals between distinct subpopulations. The purpose of the present work has been to develop stochastic models in order to study the transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases in metapopulations. The authors studied Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible （SIS） and Susceptible-lnfected-Recovered （SIR） epidemic schemes, using the Gillespie algorithm, Computational numerical simulations were carried in order to explore the models. The results obtained show how the dynamics of transmission and the application of control measures within each subpopulation may affect all subpopulations of the system. They also show how the distribution of control measures among subpopulations affects the efficacy of these strategies. The dynamics of the stochastic models developed in the current study follow the trends observed in the classic deterministic designs. Also, the present models exhibit fluctuating behavior. This work highlights the importance of the spatial distribution of the population in spread and control of infectious diseases. In addition, it shows how chance could play an important role in these scenarios.展开更多
The simplified incidence function model which is driven by the colored correlated noises is employed to investigate the extinction time of a metapopulation perturbed by environments. The approximate Fokker-Planck Equa...The simplified incidence function model which is driven by the colored correlated noises is employed to investigate the extinction time of a metapopulation perturbed by environments. The approximate Fokker-Planck Equation and the mean first passage time which denotes the extinction time （Tex） are obtained by virtue of the Novikov theorem and the Fox approach. After introducing a noise intensity ratio and a dimensionless parameter R = D /α （D and a are the multiplicative and additive colored noise intensities respectively）, and then performing numerical computations, the results indicate that： （i） The absolute value of correlation strength A and its correlation time τ3 play opposite roles on the Tex; （ii） For the case of 0 〈λ〈 1,α and its correlation time τ2 play opposite roles on the Tex in which R〉 1 is the best condition, and there is one-peak structure on the Tex - D plot; （iii） For the case of-1 〈 λ≤ 0, D and its correlation time τ1 play opposite roles on the Tex in which R 〈 1 is the best condition and there is one-peak structure on the Tex - τ2 plot.展开更多
Background:Philopatry rate is one of the main factors shaping population dynamics in colonial seabirds.Low rates of philopatry are linked to populations with high dispersal,while high rates are linked to populations w...Background:Philopatry rate is one of the main factors shaping population dynamics in colonial seabirds.Low rates of philopatry are linked to populations with high dispersal,while high rates are linked to populations with a very high spatial structure pattern(i.e.,metapopulations).The Cantabrian Yellow-legged Gull(Larus michahellis)population is considered to be resident,with relatively low dispersal rates.Precise estimations of its philopatry rates are however still lacking.Here,we aimed to estimate philopatry rates in the main Yellow-legged Gull colonies of the province of Gipuzkoa,in the southeastern part of the Bay of Biscay.Methods:We analysed 734 resightings,during the breeding season at the colonies of Getaria,Santa Clara and Ulia,relative to a total of 3245 individuals ringed at birth in these same colonies during a period of 13 years.These data were analysed using Multi-State Recapture models in MARK.Results:After controlling survival and resighting probability,the average dispersal rate among colonies was 4%(±SD=2%)when individuals are immature,decreasing to 1±1%)for adult breeding gulls(i.e.,philopatry rate was 99%).Annual survival rates were assessed to be 0.27±0.02 for birds in their first year of life and 0.87±0.01 for older individuals.The probability of observing immature birds in the colonies was 0.08±0.01,as compared to 0.21±0.02 in adult birds.Conclusions:We obtained evidence of extremely high local philopatry rates,clearly within the upper limit found in gulls.A high philopatry favour a speciation in these species who are vulnerable to obtain the main food source(land-fills and fishing discard)which are transforming under new ecological process.展开更多
The construction of nature reserves plays an essential role in protecting natural resources and the ecological environment,especially the conservation of rare and endangered species,which also has a vital function in ...The construction of nature reserves plays an essential role in protecting natural resources and the ecological environment,especially the conservation of rare and endangered species,which also has a vital function in maintaining the ecological security of the national territory.China has built up a comprehensive network of nature reserves after waves of development,but there are still many problems with the management of nature reserves,such as the definition of boundaries,zoning theory,zoning methods,and legal protection.The definition of boundaries is a tool for effective management of nature reserves,but achieving scientific and effective boundary definition is a difficult problem for the construction and management of reserves.It is also a problem that must be solved to achieve sustainable development.This paper compared three fundamental theories of the conservation of species in nature reserves,namely island biogeography,metapopulation,and landscape ecology,from connotations,applications and advantages,and disadvantages,and discussed the progress of theoretical research to provide valuable references for the definition and planning of effective boundaries of nature reserves.展开更多
Unlike most brood parasites, several species of cowbird (Molothrus) are generalists that parasitize multiple host species across their range and within the same communities; likewise, there is little evidence that ind...Unlike most brood parasites, several species of cowbird (Molothrus) are generalists that parasitize multiple host species across their range and within the same communities; likewise, there is little evidence that individuals within a population specialize on host species. This situation has variously been attributed to the recency of cowbird evolution (the 'evolutionary lag' hypothesis) or to hidden costs of rejection by hosts (the 'equilibrium' hypothesis). Both hypotheses have some support as cowbirds are indeed a relatively young clade compared with more specialized cuckoos and cowbirds are capable of sophisticated behaviors such as retaliation against rejection ('mafia' behaviors) that would select for acceptance of cowbird eggs. Nevertheless, many species in the Americas have evolved specialized defenses against cowbird parasitism, almost all of which live in more open habitats (e. g., grasslands, shrublands, riparian strips), which indicates that coevolutionary processes can operate in ways that select for host defenses in spite of cowbird counterdefenses. We propose that the structure of landscapes in North America may explain why forest-nesting birds lack defenses against parasitism and reinforce the long-term maintenance of generalized brood parasitism in cowbirds. Because cowbirds require open habitats in which to feed, they are rare or absent in large forest tracts, which dominate much of the forest cover of the Americas. These tracts act as 'source habitats' that produce surplus young that recolonize populations in smaller, fragmented forest patches in which rates of both cowbird parasitism and nest predation are very high ('sink' habitats). Evolution of antiparasite adaptations would be very slow in this situation because most hosts are produced in areas where there is little or no cowbird parasitism. In addition, the interplay of host breeding dispersal, source-sink metapopulation dynamics, and fragmented forest habitat could further deter the evolution of host defenses against parasitism. Therefore, as long as large forest tracts remain widespread in North America, most forest birds will likely continue to lack defenses against cowbird parasitism, guaranteeing a steady supply of na ve hosts in forest habitats, even in fragmented landscapes. This situation will, in turn, favor host generalist cowbirds that actively avoid more open habitats in favor of parasitizing forest bird communities. These forest communities may also act as source populations for cowbirds, which might pump surplus generalist cowbirds into more open habitats further slowing the coevolutionary process. As long as large forest tracts are a common part of the landscape, generalist parasitism may persist indefinitely.展开更多
We propose a metapopulation model with two geographical scales. In a regional scale, the model describes the dynamics of a collection of habitats connected by migratory movements. In a local scale, we consider some gr...We propose a metapopulation model with two geographical scales. In a regional scale, the model describes the dynamics of a collection of habitats connected by migratory movements. In a local scale, we consider some granularity within each habitat, in the sense that each habitat is itself a collection of patches linked by dispersal. The whole ensemble can be seen as a metapopulation composed by local metapopulations. We analyze the synchronization of the model in the two geographical scales. We present an analytic criterion for synchronization where only the habitats in the regional scale evolve with the same dynamics. Through numerical simulations, we discuss the different synchronization modes. It depends on how the individuals are distributed in the local patches that compose a habitat after migration takes place in the regional scale.展开更多
The regime of disturbance with natural or anthropogenic origin can lead to the destabilization or even to a mass mortality of benthic communities. Due to the heterogeneity of the disturbance there is a formation of pa...The regime of disturbance with natural or anthropogenic origin can lead to the destabilization or even to a mass mortality of benthic communities. Due to the heterogeneity of the disturbance there is a formation of patches in different stages of ecological succession. The aim of this study is to follow and describe the resilience in artificial disturbed sediment in a polluted bay in Rio de Janeiro. The sediment was collected, sterilized and placed inside corers (10 cmdiameter ×15 cmheight) in the same place where it was collected. We allocated the samples in two structures, the difference between them was that one was placed closed to the bottom and the other was placed50 cmheight. We found 2352 organisms distributed in 14 taxons. The class Polychaeta and the order Amphipoda showed the highest density in all the survey and treatments. We identified the factors influencing the scenarium: different mechanisms of dispersal, the position of the structures and life history of each group. Disturbance can be the main cause of the patch’s diversity found in estuaries and coastal areas. Because of this, monitoring of selected areas becomes an important tool to understand the regime of disturbance as a key factor structuring benthic communities in soft sediment, also suggesting a metapopulation dynamics.展开更多
Impact statement.Evolutionary training of phages can help to counter bacterial resistance evolution.Here,we address whether metapopulation processes can enhance the evolution of phage infectivity.Our experiment with a...Impact statement.Evolutionary training of phages can help to counter bacterial resistance evolution.Here,we address whether metapopulation processes can enhance the evolution of phage infectivity.Our experiment with a model bacterium-phage system supported a prediction of long-term fluctuating selection dynamics.Specifically,metapopulations of several small habitats showed greater total infectivity ranges by supporting more diverse phages,compared with single large populations.展开更多
Emerging infectious diseases and climate change are two of the major challenges in 21st century.Although over the past decades,highly-resolved mathematical models have contributed in understanding dynamics of infectio...Emerging infectious diseases and climate change are two of the major challenges in 21st century.Although over the past decades,highly-resolved mathematical models have contributed in understanding dynamics of infectious diseases and are of great aid when it comes to finding suitable intervention measures,they may need substantial computational effort and produce significant CO_(2) emissions.Two popular modeling approaches for mitigating infectious disease dynamics are agent-based and population-based models.Agent-based models(ABMs)offer a microscopic view and are thus able to capture heterogeneous human contact behavior and mobility patterns.However,insights on individual-level dynamics come with high computational effort that scales with the number of agents.On the other hand,population-based models(PBMs)using e.g.ordinary differential equations(ODEs)are computationally efficient even for large populations due to their complexity being independent of the population size.Yet,population-based models are restricted in their granularity as they assume a(to some extent)homogeneous and well-mixed population.To manage the trade-off between computational complexity and level of detail,we propose spatial-and temporal-hybrid models that use ABMs only in an area or time frame of interest.To account for relevant influences to disease dynamics,e.g.,from outside,due to commuting activities,we use population-based models,only adding moderate computational costs.Our hybridization approach demonstrates significant reduction in computational effort by up to 98%–without losing the required depth in information in the focus frame.The hybrid models used in our numerical simulations are based on two recently proposed models,however,any suitable combination of ABM and PBM could be used,too.Concluding,hybrid epidemiological models can provide insights on the individual scale where necessary,using aggregated models where possible,thereby making a contribution to green computing.展开更多
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a tremendous impact on the transportation and tourism sectors.As vaccines were being administered and lockdowns implemented,owing to the significant social and economic impacts,travel bub...The COVID-19 pandemic has had a tremendous impact on the transportation and tourism sectors.As vaccines were being administered and lockdowns implemented,owing to the significant social and economic impacts,travel bubbles were proposed as a gradual and intermediate open policy to balance risks and economic recovery.However,the travel bubble framework and associated costs and benefits were not well-established during policy implementation.In this study,we propose a travel bubble transportation framework using a metapopulation epidemic and mobility model,and conduct a cost-benefit analysis for the decision-making process during the border reopening phase.Our model focuses on the control of domestic and international long-distance travel inside the bubble to maximize monetary returns derived from tourism benefits and pandemic costs.A sequential decision problem is proposed to make multiple decisions based on real-time observations.We conduct a case study on travel bubbles in Australia,New Zealand,and Japan to test the feasibility of the model.The simulation results show that controlled intra-bubble transportation can generate positive economic benefits while keeping the epidemic within an acceptable range of control.Our framework can assist policymakers in making informed,open decisions by considering multiple attributes during a global pandemic.展开更多
We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics.The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection spread is described...We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics.The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection spread is described by an epidemicity index related to the maximum instantaneous growth rate of new infections,echoing concepts and tools developed to study the reactivity of ecosystems.Suitable epidemicity indices can showcase the dynamics of infections,together with commonly employed effective reproduction numbers,especially when the latter assume values less than 1.In particular,epidemicity evaluates the short-term reactivity to perturbations of a disease-free equilibrium.Here,we show that sufficient epidemicity thresholds to prevent transient epidemic outbreaks in a spatially connected setting can be estimated by generalizing existing analogues derived when spatial effects are neglected.We specifically account for the discrete nature,in both space and time,of surveillance data of the type typically employed to estimate effective reproduction numbers that formed the bulk of the communication of the state of the COVID-19 pandemic and its controls.After analyzing the effects of spatial heterogeneity on the considered prognostic indicators,we perform a short-and long-term analysis on the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy,showing that endemic conditions were maintained throughout the duration of our simulation despite stringent control measures.Our method provides a portfolio of prognostic indices that are essential to pinpoint the ongoing pandemic in both a qualitative and quantitative manner,as our results demonstrate.We base our conclusions on extended investigations of the effects of spatial fragmentation of communities of different sizes owing to connectivity by human mobility and contact scenarios,within real geographic contexts and synthetic setups designed to test our framework.展开更多
基金financially supported by Immunology Research Center,Tabriz University of Medical Sciences,Tabriz,Iran
文摘Objective: To verify phylogeography and genetic structure of Acanthamoeba populations among the Iranian clinical isolates and natural/artificial environments distributed in various regions of the country.Methods: We searched electronic databases including Medline, Pub Med, Science Direct, Scopus and Google Scholar from 2005 to 2016. To explore the genetic variability of Acanthamoeba sp, 205 sequences were retrieved from keratitis patients, immunosuppressed cases and environmental sources as of various geographies of Iran.Results: T4 genotype was the predominant strain in Iran, and the rare genotypes belonged to T2, T3, T5(Acanthamoeba lenticulata), T6, T9, T11, T13 and T15(Acanthamoeba jacobsi).A total of 47 unique haplotypes of T4 were identified. A parsimonious network of the sequence haplotypes demonstrated star-like feature containing haplogroups IR6(34.1%) and IR7(31.2%) as the most common haplotypes. In accordance with the analysis of molecular variance, the high value of haplotype diversity(0.612–0.848) of Acanthamoeba T4 represented genetic variability within populations. Neutrality indices of the 18 S ribosomal RNA demonstrated negative values in all populations which represented a considerable divergence from neutrality. The majority of genetic diversity belonged to the infected contact lens and dust samples in immunodeficiency and ophthalmology wards, which indicated potential routes for exposure to a pathogenic Acanthamoeba sp. in at-risk individuals. A pairwise fixation index(FST) was from low to high values(0.024 33–0.418 92). The statistically FST points out that T4 is genetically differentiated between north-west, north-south and centralsouth metapopulations, but not differentiated between west-central, west-south, centralsouth, and north-central isolates.Conclusions: An occurrence of IR6 and IR7 displays that possibly a gene flow of Acanthamoeba T4 occurred after the founder effect or bottleneck experience through ecological changes or host mobility. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis providing new approaches into gene migration and transmission patterns of Acanthamoeba sp, and targeting at the high-risk individuals/sources among the various regions of Iran.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12101443,12371493)the Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province(Grant Nos.20210302124260 and 202303021221024)。
文摘Livestock transportation is a key factor that contributes to the spatial spread of brucellosis.To analyze the impact of sheep transportation on brucellosis transmission,we develop a human–sheep coupled brucellosis model within a metapopulation network framework.Theoretically,we examine the positively invariant set,the basic reproduction number,the existence,uniqueness,and stability of disease-free equilibrium and the existence of the endemic equilibrium of the model.For practical application,using Heilongjiang province as a case study,we simulate brucellosis transmission across 12 cities based on data using three network types:the BA network,the ER network,and homogeneous mixing network.The simulation results indicate that the network's average degree plays a role in the spread of brucellosis.For BA and ER networks,the basic reproduction number and cumulative incidence of brucellosis stabilize when the network's average degree reaches 4 or 5.In contrast,sheep transport in a homogeneous mixing network accelerates the cross-regional spread of brucellosis,whereas transportation in a BA network helps to control it effectively.Furthermore,the findings suggest that the movement of sheep is not always detrimental to controlling the spread of brucellosis.For cities with smaller sheep populations,such as Shuangyashan and Qitaihe,increasing the transport of sheep outward amplifies the spatial spread of the disease.In contrast,in cities with larger sheep populations,such as Qiqihar,Daqing,and Suihua,moderate sheep outflow can help reduce the spread.In addition,cities with large livestock populations play a dominant role in the overall transmission dynamics,underscoring the need for stricter supervision in these areas.
文摘Behavioral research has long had an important role in the conservation of terns （Ayes： Stemidae）. Habitat management and restoration of breeding colony sites depends on knowledge of the cues used to select colony and nest sites. For example, conspecific attraction with playback and decoys is commonly used to bring terns to suitable colony sites and habitat modification is often used to increase the availability of suitable nest sites. Tern colonies are interconnected by dispersal, and a metapopulation approach is needed for effective management. Population dynamics are therefore affected by behaviors that influence the frequency of movement among colony sites： site fidelity, natal and breeding dispersal, and group adherence. The monogamous breeding system of terns should keep effective population size similar to census population size, but variation in sex ratios （likely resulting from sex differences in behavior） and in parental quality can result in a smaller than expected effective population size. In addition to the behavior of terns, knowledge of the behavior of predators on terns contributes to management plans, because predator behavior can sometimes be manipulated and predation is often performed by only a few specialized individuals. Other examples of links between tern behavior and conservation are also briefly reviewed, such as behavioral toxicology research and studies of behavioral responses to human disturbance and manmade structures. More work is needed on the behavior of migratory terns at staging sites, stopover sites and wintering grounds, and on the behavior of less well-studied species and species in less well-studied geographic regions [Current Zoology 60 （4）： 500-514, 2014].
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11072107,91016022,and 11232007)the Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Mechanics and Control of Mechanical Structures of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and astronautics,China(Grant No.0113G01)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of the Higher Education Institutions of Jiangsu Province,China(Grant No.13KJB110006)the Project Fund of Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,China(Grant No.633051203)
文摘We investigate the stochastic resonance （SR） phenomenon induced by the periodic signal in a metapopulation system with colored noises. The analytical expression of signal-to-noise is derived in the adiabatic limit. By numerical calculation, the effects of the addictive noise intensity, the multiplicative noise intensity and two noise self-correlation times on SNR are respectively discussed. It shows that： （i） in the case that the addictive noise intensity M takes a small value, a SR phenomenon for the curve of SNR appears; however, when M takes a large value, SNR turns into a monotonic function on the multiplicative noise intensity Q. （ii） The resonance peaks in the plots of the multiplicative noise intensity Q versus its self-correlation time Vl and the addictive noise intensity M versus its self-correlation time ~2 translate in parallel. Mean- while, a parallel translation also appears in the plots of vl versus Q and v2 versus M. （iii） The interactive effects between self-correlation times Vl and v2 are opposite.
文摘Hydrobiidae is one of the most diverse taxa among limnic and estuarine mollusks. Patterns of spatial and seasonal distribution of Heleobia australis were studied in ten stations over two years, in the urban eutrophic bay of Guanabara, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Spatial dispersal strategies in adults of this species, analyzed in the laboratory, revealed three patterns: 1) mobility on soft sediments;2) mobility on hard substrata;and 3) the ability to lift from the bottom to the surface, to again sink down. This facilitate species movement from one location to another by surface currents or attached to floating debris. Thus, individuals are able to escape from an impacted area and further re-colonize other patches after recovering from local impacts. The hypothesis of metapopulation dynamics (source– sink) was analyzed. Two stations with high and constant numbers of individuals were grouped and tested as possible ‘sources’. The number of specimens in the remaining stations was highly variable, even with the complete disappearance and posterior highly dense re-occurrence of the mollusk, whereby these were tested as possible ‘sinks’. Results derived from nested ANOVA supported the hypothesis of metapopulation dynamics in the case of H. australis adults, ex-pressed through opportunistic-species domi- nation of a highly impacted estuarine system, such as Guanabara Bay.
文摘The research on spatial epidemic models is a topic of considerable recent interest. In another hand, the advances in computer technology have stimulated the development of stochastic models. Metapopulation models are spatial designs that involve movements of individuals between distinct subpopulations. The purpose of the present work has been to develop stochastic models in order to study the transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases in metapopulations. The authors studied Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible （SIS） and Susceptible-lnfected-Recovered （SIR） epidemic schemes, using the Gillespie algorithm, Computational numerical simulations were carried in order to explore the models. The results obtained show how the dynamics of transmission and the application of control measures within each subpopulation may affect all subpopulations of the system. They also show how the distribution of control measures among subpopulations affects the efficacy of these strategies. The dynamics of the stochastic models developed in the current study follow the trends observed in the classic deterministic designs. Also, the present models exhibit fluctuating behavior. This work highlights the importance of the spatial distribution of the population in spread and control of infectious diseases. In addition, it shows how chance could play an important role in these scenarios.
文摘The simplified incidence function model which is driven by the colored correlated noises is employed to investigate the extinction time of a metapopulation perturbed by environments. The approximate Fokker-Planck Equation and the mean first passage time which denotes the extinction time （Tex） are obtained by virtue of the Novikov theorem and the Fox approach. After introducing a noise intensity ratio and a dimensionless parameter R = D /α （D and a are the multiplicative and additive colored noise intensities respectively）, and then performing numerical computations, the results indicate that： （i） The absolute value of correlation strength A and its correlation time τ3 play opposite roles on the Tex; （ii） For the case of 0 〈λ〈 1,α and its correlation time τ2 play opposite roles on the Tex in which R〉 1 is the best condition, and there is one-peak structure on the Tex - D plot; （iii） For the case of-1 〈 λ≤ 0, D and its correlation time τ1 play opposite roles on the Tex in which R 〈 1 is the best condition and there is one-peak structure on the Tex - τ2 plot.
基金This research was partly funded by the Basque Government and the Gipuzkoa Regional Council.SD benefited from a pre-doctoral fellowship from the Basque Government.
文摘Background:Philopatry rate is one of the main factors shaping population dynamics in colonial seabirds.Low rates of philopatry are linked to populations with high dispersal,while high rates are linked to populations with a very high spatial structure pattern(i.e.,metapopulations).The Cantabrian Yellow-legged Gull(Larus michahellis)population is considered to be resident,with relatively low dispersal rates.Precise estimations of its philopatry rates are however still lacking.Here,we aimed to estimate philopatry rates in the main Yellow-legged Gull colonies of the province of Gipuzkoa,in the southeastern part of the Bay of Biscay.Methods:We analysed 734 resightings,during the breeding season at the colonies of Getaria,Santa Clara and Ulia,relative to a total of 3245 individuals ringed at birth in these same colonies during a period of 13 years.These data were analysed using Multi-State Recapture models in MARK.Results:After controlling survival and resighting probability,the average dispersal rate among colonies was 4%(±SD=2%)when individuals are immature,decreasing to 1±1%)for adult breeding gulls(i.e.,philopatry rate was 99%).Annual survival rates were assessed to be 0.27±0.02 for birds in their first year of life and 0.87±0.01 for older individuals.The probability of observing immature birds in the colonies was 0.08±0.01,as compared to 0.21±0.02 in adult birds.Conclusions:We obtained evidence of extremely high local philopatry rates,clearly within the upper limit found in gulls.A high philopatry favour a speciation in these species who are vulnerable to obtain the main food source(land-fills and fishing discard)which are transforming under new ecological process.
基金Supported by the Central Universities Basic Research Operations Project(JS2019HGXJ0027).
文摘The construction of nature reserves plays an essential role in protecting natural resources and the ecological environment,especially the conservation of rare and endangered species,which also has a vital function in maintaining the ecological security of the national territory.China has built up a comprehensive network of nature reserves after waves of development,but there are still many problems with the management of nature reserves,such as the definition of boundaries,zoning theory,zoning methods,and legal protection.The definition of boundaries is a tool for effective management of nature reserves,but achieving scientific and effective boundary definition is a difficult problem for the construction and management of reserves.It is also a problem that must be solved to achieve sustainable development.This paper compared three fundamental theories of the conservation of species in nature reserves,namely island biogeography,metapopulation,and landscape ecology,from connotations,applications and advantages,and disadvantages,and discussed the progress of theoretical research to provide valuable references for the definition and planning of effective boundaries of nature reserves.
文摘Unlike most brood parasites, several species of cowbird (Molothrus) are generalists that parasitize multiple host species across their range and within the same communities; likewise, there is little evidence that individuals within a population specialize on host species. This situation has variously been attributed to the recency of cowbird evolution (the 'evolutionary lag' hypothesis) or to hidden costs of rejection by hosts (the 'equilibrium' hypothesis). Both hypotheses have some support as cowbirds are indeed a relatively young clade compared with more specialized cuckoos and cowbirds are capable of sophisticated behaviors such as retaliation against rejection ('mafia' behaviors) that would select for acceptance of cowbird eggs. Nevertheless, many species in the Americas have evolved specialized defenses against cowbird parasitism, almost all of which live in more open habitats (e. g., grasslands, shrublands, riparian strips), which indicates that coevolutionary processes can operate in ways that select for host defenses in spite of cowbird counterdefenses. We propose that the structure of landscapes in North America may explain why forest-nesting birds lack defenses against parasitism and reinforce the long-term maintenance of generalized brood parasitism in cowbirds. Because cowbirds require open habitats in which to feed, they are rare or absent in large forest tracts, which dominate much of the forest cover of the Americas. These tracts act as 'source habitats' that produce surplus young that recolonize populations in smaller, fragmented forest patches in which rates of both cowbird parasitism and nest predation are very high ('sink' habitats). Evolution of antiparasite adaptations would be very slow in this situation because most hosts are produced in areas where there is little or no cowbird parasitism. In addition, the interplay of host breeding dispersal, source-sink metapopulation dynamics, and fragmented forest habitat could further deter the evolution of host defenses against parasitism. Therefore, as long as large forest tracts remain widespread in North America, most forest birds will likely continue to lack defenses against cowbird parasitism, guaranteeing a steady supply of na ve hosts in forest habitats, even in fragmented landscapes. This situation will, in turn, favor host generalist cowbirds that actively avoid more open habitats in favor of parasitizing forest bird communities. These forest communities may also act as source populations for cowbirds, which might pump surplus generalist cowbirds into more open habitats further slowing the coevolutionary process. As long as large forest tracts are a common part of the landscape, generalist parasitism may persist indefinitely.
文摘We propose a metapopulation model with two geographical scales. In a regional scale, the model describes the dynamics of a collection of habitats connected by migratory movements. In a local scale, we consider some granularity within each habitat, in the sense that each habitat is itself a collection of patches linked by dispersal. The whole ensemble can be seen as a metapopulation composed by local metapopulations. We analyze the synchronization of the model in the two geographical scales. We present an analytic criterion for synchronization where only the habitats in the regional scale evolve with the same dynamics. Through numerical simulations, we discuss the different synchronization modes. It depends on how the individuals are distributed in the local patches that compose a habitat after migration takes place in the regional scale.
文摘The regime of disturbance with natural or anthropogenic origin can lead to the destabilization or even to a mass mortality of benthic communities. Due to the heterogeneity of the disturbance there is a formation of patches in different stages of ecological succession. The aim of this study is to follow and describe the resilience in artificial disturbed sediment in a polluted bay in Rio de Janeiro. The sediment was collected, sterilized and placed inside corers (10 cmdiameter ×15 cmheight) in the same place where it was collected. We allocated the samples in two structures, the difference between them was that one was placed closed to the bottom and the other was placed50 cmheight. We found 2352 organisms distributed in 14 taxons. The class Polychaeta and the order Amphipoda showed the highest density in all the survey and treatments. We identified the factors influencing the scenarium: different mechanisms of dispersal, the position of the structures and life history of each group. Disturbance can be the main cause of the patch’s diversity found in estuaries and coastal areas. Because of this, monitoring of selected areas becomes an important tool to understand the regime of disturbance as a key factor structuring benthic communities in soft sediment, also suggesting a metapopulation dynamics.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32371687).
文摘Impact statement.Evolutionary training of phages can help to counter bacterial resistance evolution.Here,we address whether metapopulation processes can enhance the evolution of phage infectivity.Our experiment with a model bacterium-phage system supported a prediction of long-term fluctuating selection dynamics.Specifically,metapopulations of several small habitats showed greater total infectivity ranges by supporting more diverse phages,compared with single large populations.
基金Nataša Djurdjevac Conrad and Johannes Zonker for discussions on the models initially developed in(Winkelmann et al.,2021)funding by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research under grant agreement 031L0297B(Project INSIDe)+2 种基金funding by the German Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport under grant agreement FKZ19F2211A(Project PANDEMOS)funding by the German Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport under grant agreement FKZ19F2211B(Project PANDEMOS)funding from the Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association(grant agreement number KA1-Co-08,Project LOKI-Pandemics).
文摘Emerging infectious diseases and climate change are two of the major challenges in 21st century.Although over the past decades,highly-resolved mathematical models have contributed in understanding dynamics of infectious diseases and are of great aid when it comes to finding suitable intervention measures,they may need substantial computational effort and produce significant CO_(2) emissions.Two popular modeling approaches for mitigating infectious disease dynamics are agent-based and population-based models.Agent-based models(ABMs)offer a microscopic view and are thus able to capture heterogeneous human contact behavior and mobility patterns.However,insights on individual-level dynamics come with high computational effort that scales with the number of agents.On the other hand,population-based models(PBMs)using e.g.ordinary differential equations(ODEs)are computationally efficient even for large populations due to their complexity being independent of the population size.Yet,population-based models are restricted in their granularity as they assume a(to some extent)homogeneous and well-mixed population.To manage the trade-off between computational complexity and level of detail,we propose spatial-and temporal-hybrid models that use ABMs only in an area or time frame of interest.To account for relevant influences to disease dynamics,e.g.,from outside,due to commuting activities,we use population-based models,only adding moderate computational costs.Our hybridization approach demonstrates significant reduction in computational effort by up to 98%–without losing the required depth in information in the focus frame.The hybrid models used in our numerical simulations are based on two recently proposed models,however,any suitable combination of ABM and PBM could be used,too.Concluding,hybrid epidemiological models can provide insights on the individual scale where necessary,using aggregated models where possible,thereby making a contribution to green computing.
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic has had a tremendous impact on the transportation and tourism sectors.As vaccines were being administered and lockdowns implemented,owing to the significant social and economic impacts,travel bubbles were proposed as a gradual and intermediate open policy to balance risks and economic recovery.However,the travel bubble framework and associated costs and benefits were not well-established during policy implementation.In this study,we propose a travel bubble transportation framework using a metapopulation epidemic and mobility model,and conduct a cost-benefit analysis for the decision-making process during the border reopening phase.Our model focuses on the control of domestic and international long-distance travel inside the bubble to maximize monetary returns derived from tourism benefits and pandemic costs.A sequential decision problem is proposed to make multiple decisions based on real-time observations.We conduct a case study on travel bubbles in Australia,New Zealand,and Japan to test the feasibility of the model.The simulation results show that controlled intra-bubble transportation can generate positive economic benefits while keeping the epidemic within an acceptable range of control.Our framework can assist policymakers in making informed,open decisions by considering multiple attributes during a global pandemic.
基金C.T.,and A.R.acknowledge funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation via the project”Optimal control of intervention strategies for waterborne disease epidemics”(grant number 200021-172578)L.M.acknowledges funding from the Italian Ministry of University and Research through the project”Epidemiological data assimilation and optimal control for short-term forecasting and emergency management of COVID-19 in Italy”(FISR_2020IP_04249).
文摘We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics.The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection spread is described by an epidemicity index related to the maximum instantaneous growth rate of new infections,echoing concepts and tools developed to study the reactivity of ecosystems.Suitable epidemicity indices can showcase the dynamics of infections,together with commonly employed effective reproduction numbers,especially when the latter assume values less than 1.In particular,epidemicity evaluates the short-term reactivity to perturbations of a disease-free equilibrium.Here,we show that sufficient epidemicity thresholds to prevent transient epidemic outbreaks in a spatially connected setting can be estimated by generalizing existing analogues derived when spatial effects are neglected.We specifically account for the discrete nature,in both space and time,of surveillance data of the type typically employed to estimate effective reproduction numbers that formed the bulk of the communication of the state of the COVID-19 pandemic and its controls.After analyzing the effects of spatial heterogeneity on the considered prognostic indicators,we perform a short-and long-term analysis on the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy,showing that endemic conditions were maintained throughout the duration of our simulation despite stringent control measures.Our method provides a portfolio of prognostic indices that are essential to pinpoint the ongoing pandemic in both a qualitative and quantitative manner,as our results demonstrate.We base our conclusions on extended investigations of the effects of spatial fragmentation of communities of different sizes owing to connectivity by human mobility and contact scenarios,within real geographic contexts and synthetic setups designed to test our framework.
