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2001-2021年大兴安岭野火时空格局演变及影响因素分析 被引量:1
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作者 李明星 丽娜 +3 位作者 那日苏 银山 许志丽 毕力格 《地理科学》 北大核心 2025年第6期1355-1368,共14页
本文基于MCD64A1火烧迹地数据,采用空间分析法和集合经验模态分解法分析大兴安岭野火时空格局演变,利用逻辑回归模型,揭示影响大兴安岭野火发生的关键因素。结果表明:2001-2021年大兴安岭野火过火面积总体呈递减趋势,季节变化表现为主... 本文基于MCD64A1火烧迹地数据,采用空间分析法和集合经验模态分解法分析大兴安岭野火时空格局演变,利用逻辑回归模型,揭示影响大兴安岭野火发生的关键因素。结果表明:2001-2021年大兴安岭野火过火面积总体呈递减趋势,季节变化表现为主要集中在春秋两季,其中春季过火面积占全年的73%。从空间分布上看,大兴安岭春季野火主要聚集于研究区东北部以及中部区域,而夏、秋、冬季野火则多集中在研究区中部。此外,春秋两季野火在空间上呈较高的聚集性。近20 a研究区37%的区域野火面积呈上升趋势,而63%的区域呈减少趋势。按影响因子对野火发生概率的影响程度大小排序依次为:居民点密度>月总降水量>水系网密度>月平均饱和水汽压差>植被类型>坡向>月平均风速>坡度>道路网密度>海拔高度,表明大兴安岭人为因子、与湿度相关的因子以及植被因子是野火发生的关键影响因素。 展开更多
关键词 野火 mcd64a1 逻辑回归 大兴安岭
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2001年—2021年四川省森林草原火灾时空特征遥感分析 被引量:4
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作者 焦淼 全兴文 +1 位作者 何彬彬 姚劲松 《遥感学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第11期2984-3001,共18页
近年来,四川省冬春季森林草原火灾频发,对当地生态、百姓和消防人员的生命财产安全造成巨大威胁。本研究旨在基于多源遥感观测数据探究2001年—2021年四川省森林草原火灾的时空特征,服务于该区域未来火灾预警防控等需求。该研究基于MCD6... 近年来,四川省冬春季森林草原火灾频发,对当地生态、百姓和消防人员的生命财产安全造成巨大威胁。本研究旨在基于多源遥感观测数据探究2001年—2021年四川省森林草原火灾的时空特征,服务于该区域未来火灾预警防控等需求。该研究基于MCD64A1、Fire_CCI51和MCD14ML等多源遥感数据提取研究区域有效火点数据,运用地理信息系统探究森林草原火灾时序趋势及空间分布,并采用数理统计、自适应模糊神经网络两种方式探究气象、可燃物和地形等影响因子与火灾的相关性。结果显示,该区域2001年—2014年火灾频率及过火面积呈上升趋势,1—5月为火灾高发期;火灾空间分布具有异质性,主要集中于四川省西南部,而近期东北部的草原火灾明显增加;森林火灾发生与可燃物含水率的相关性较高,草原火灾发生与相对湿度的相关性较高,同时推测人为因素对草原火灾的诱发存在较大影响。该项研究基于多源遥感观测数据对2001年—2021年四川省森林草原火灾时空特征进行了定性与定量的分析,为该区域森林草原火灾防控预警等需求提供有效先验信息。 展开更多
关键词 遥感 四川省 mcd64a1 Fire_CCI51 MCD14ML 森林草原火灾 空间分布 时间趋势 时空特征
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基于Logistic模型的四川凉山州森林火灾风险分析 被引量:25
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作者 李海萍 龙志航 +2 位作者 杨滋恒 徐竹青 李杨喆 《安全与环境学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第2期498-505,共8页
森林火灾严重危害人类生命财产安全,科学准确的林火风险分析对防灾减灾具有重要意义。四川省凉山州因林火频发而成为重点监测区域。基于MCD64A1火烧迹地数据,提取凉山州2010—2020年的火烧迹地范围,在分析历史火灾时空分布的基础上,选... 森林火灾严重危害人类生命财产安全,科学准确的林火风险分析对防灾减灾具有重要意义。四川省凉山州因林火频发而成为重点监测区域。基于MCD64A1火烧迹地数据,提取凉山州2010—2020年的火烧迹地范围,在分析历史火灾时空分布的基础上,选取地形、植被类型及植被覆盖指数、干湿季平均温度及降水量、土地利用和人口密度等主要风险因子,建立Logistic模型并计算森林火灾的风险概率,结合火灾迹地的空间统计划分风险等级。结果表明:1)基于火灾迹地进行空间采样所构建的Logistic模型在显著性水平0.05时通过模型系数检验,拟合效果较好;2)影响凉山州森林火灾发生的风险因子主要有植被类型、植被覆盖指数、高程、坡度、人口密度和干季均温,其中干季均温对林火发生与否影响最大;3)西昌市、会理、会东和德昌县等干热河谷地区的林火风险极高,应重点监测。 展开更多
关键词 公共安全 四川凉山州 森林火灾 mcd64a1火烧迹地 LOGISTIC模型
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An improved algorithm for mapping burnt areas in the Mediterranean forest landscape of Morocco 被引量:1
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作者 Issameddine Zidane Rachid Lhissou +1 位作者 Abdelali Bouli Mustapha Mabrouki 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2019年第3期981-992,共12页
The identification of burnt forests and their monitoring provide essential information for the suitable management and conservation of these ecosystems. This research focuses on the use of remote sensing with MODIS se... The identification of burnt forests and their monitoring provide essential information for the suitable management and conservation of these ecosystems. This research focuses on the use of remote sensing with MODIS sensor data in a Mediterranean environment, precisely in the Rif region known for its high occurrence of forest fires and the largest burnt areas in Morocco. It mapped the burnt areas during the summer of 2016 using spectral indices from MODIS images, namely the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) and the Burnt Area Index for MODIS (BAIM). Two field surveys were used to calibrate spectral indices and validate the maps. First, a monotemporal analysis using a single pre-fire image determined the appropriate threshold of the spectral indices (BAIM and NBR) for burn detecting. Secondly, a multitemporal method was applied based on dBAIM and dNBR images which represented pre-fire and postfire differences of the BAIM and NBR images, respectively. The results show that separate use of monotemporal postfire and multitemporal methods produced an overestimation of the burnt areas. Finally, we propose a new algorithm combining both methods for burnt area mapping that we name Burnt Area Algorithm. MCD45A1 and MCD64A1 MODIS burnt area products were compared to the proposed algorithm. Validation of the estimated burnt areas using reference data of the Moroccan High Commission for Water, Forests and Fight against Desertification showed satisfactory results using the proposed algorithm, with a determination coefficient of 0.68 and a root mean square error of 44.0 ha. 展开更多
关键词 Burnt FOREST MAPPING THRESHOLD MODIS MCD45A1 mcd64a1 SPECTRAL indices Morocco
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Spatiotemporal patterns of burned areas,fire drivers,and fire probability across the equatorial Andes 被引量:1
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作者 Xavier ZAPATA-RiOS Carmen LOPEZ-FABARA +2 位作者 Abigail NAVARRETE Sandra TORRES-PAGUAY Miguel FLORES 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第4期952-972,共21页
Field-based fire studies in the equatorial Andes indicate that fires are strongly associated with biophysical and anthropogenic variables.However,fire controls and fire regimes at the regional scale remain undocumente... Field-based fire studies in the equatorial Andes indicate that fires are strongly associated with biophysical and anthropogenic variables.However,fire controls and fire regimes at the regional scale remain undocumented.Therefore,this paper describes spatial and temporal burned-area patterns,identifies biophysical and anthropogenic fire drivers,and quantifies fire probability across 6°of latitude and 3°of longitude in the equatorial Andes.The spatial and temporal burned-area analysis was carried out based on 18 years(2001-2018)of the MCD64 A1 MODIS burned-area product.Climate,topography,vegetation,and anthropogenic variables were integrated in a logistic regression model to identify the significance of explanatory variables and determine fire occurrence probability.A total of 5779 fire events were registered during the 18 years of this study,located primarily along the western cordillera of the Andes and spreading from North to South.Eighty-eight percent of these fires took place within two fire hotspots located in the northwestern and southwestern corners of the study area.Ninety-nine percent occurred during the second part of the year,between June and December.The largest density of fires was primarily located on herbaceous vegetation and shrublands.Results show that mean monthly temperature,precipitation and NDVI during the prefire season,the location of land cover classes such as forest and agriculture,distance to roads and urban areas,slope,and aspect were the most important determinants of spatial and temporal fire distribution.The logistic regression model achieved a good accuracy in predicting fire probability(80%).Probability was higher in the southwestern and northern corners of the study area,and lower towards the north in the western and eastern piedmonts of the Andes.This analysis contributes to the understanding of fires in mountains within the tropics.The results here presented have the potential to contribute to fire management and control in the region. 展开更多
关键词 MODIS mcd64a1 Spectral vegetation indices Pre-fire season NDVI and precipitation Remote sensing
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