In this study, the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error was investigated using two simple chaotic systems： the Lorenz model, which possesses a single characteristic time scale, and the c...In this study, the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error was investigated using two simple chaotic systems： the Lorenz model, which possesses a single characteristic time scale, and the coupled Lorenz model, which possesses two different characteristic time scales. The limit of predictability is defined here as the time at which the error reaches 95% of its saturation level; nonlinear behaviors of the error growth are therefore involved in the definition of the limit of predictability. Our results show that the logarithmic function performs well in describing the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error in both models, although the coefficients in the logarithmic function were not constant across the examined range of initial errors. Compared with the Lorenz model, in the coupled Lorenz model in which the slow dynamics and the fast dynamics interact with each other--there is a more complex relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error. The limit of predictability of the Lorenz model is unbounded as the initial error becomes infinitesimally small; therefore, the limit of predictability of the Lorenz model may be extended by reducing the amplitude of the initial error. In contrast, if there exists a fixed initial error in the fast dynamics of the coupled Lorenz model, the slow dynamics has an intrinsic finite limit of predictability that cannot be extended by reducing the amplitude of the initial error in the slow dynamics, and vice versa. The findings reported here reveal the possible existence of an intrinsic finite limit of predictability in a coupled system that possesses many scales of time or motion.展开更多
The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） in ocean-atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （C...The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） in ocean-atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） approach was em- ployed to study the largest initial error growth in the E1 Nino predictions of an intermediate coupled model （ICM）. The optimal initial errors （as represented by CNOPs） in sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） and sea level anomalies （SLAs） were obtained with seasonal variation. The CNOP-induced perturbations, which tend to evolve into the La Nifia mode, were found to have the same dynamics as ENSO itself. This indicates that, if CNOP-type errors are present in the initial conditions used to make a prediction of E1 Nino, the E1 Nino event tends to be under-predicted. In particular, compared with other seasonal CNOPs, the CNOPs in winter can induce the largest error growth, which gives rise to an ENSO amplitude that is hardly ever predicted accurately. Additionally, it was found that the CNOP-induced perturbations exhibit a strong spring predictability barrier （SPB） phenomenon for ENSO prediction. These results offer a way to enhance ICM prediction skill and, particularly, weaken the SPB phenomenon by filtering the CNOP-type errors in the initial state. The characteristic distributions of the CNOPs derived from the ICM also provide useful information for targeted observations through data assimilation. Given the fact that the derived CNOPs are season-dependent, it is suggested that seasonally varying targeted observations should be implemented to accurately predict ENSO events.展开更多
The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and wate...The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.展开更多
Impacts of initial conditions on cloud-resolving model simulations are investigated using a series of sensitivity experiments. Five experiments with perturbed initial temperature, moisture, and cloud conditions are co...Impacts of initial conditions on cloud-resolving model simulations are investigated using a series of sensitivity experiments. Five experiments with perturbed initial temperature, moisture, and cloud conditions are conducted and compared to the control experiment. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind observed and derived from NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System （GDAS）. The results indicate that model predictions of rainfall are much more sensitive to the initial conditions than those of temperature and moisture. Further analyses of the surface rainfall equation and the moisture and cloud hydrometeor budgets reveal that the calculations of vapor condensation and deposition rates in the model account for the large sensitivities in rainfall simulations.展开更多
This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(EC...This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),on the accuracy of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)forecasts for south China.A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was verified.Both ICs exhibited cold biases over south China,as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta(PRD).In particular,the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than NCEP.In general,the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south China.Moreover,GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the ECWMF.The results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.展开更多
In this study,the behavior of Gavoshan dam was evaluated during construction and the first impounding.A two-dimensional（2D） numerical analysis was conducted based on a finite difference method on the largest cross-s...In this study,the behavior of Gavoshan dam was evaluated during construction and the first impounding.A two-dimensional（2D） numerical analysis was conducted based on a finite difference method on the largest cross-section of the dam using the results of instrument measurements and back analysis.These evaluations will be completed in the case that back analysis is carried out in order to control the degree of the accuracy and the level of confidence of the measured behavior since each of the measurements could be controlled by comparing it to the result obtained from the numerical model.Following that,by comparing the results of the numerical analysis with the measured values,it is indicated that there is a proper consistency between these two values.Moreover,it was observed that the dam performance was suitable regarding the induced pore water pressure,the pore water pressure ratio r;,settlement,induced stresses,arching degree,and hydraulic fracturing probability during the construction and initial impounding periods.The results demonstrated that the maximum settlement of the core was 238 cm at the end of construction.In the following 6 years after construction（initial impounding and exploitation period）,the accumulative settlement of the dam was 270 cm.It is clear that 88% of the total settlement of the dam took place during dam construction.The reason is that the clay core was smashed in the wet side,i.e.the optimum moisture content.Whereas the average curving ratio was 0.64 during dam construction; at the end of the initial impounding,the maximum amount of curving ratio in the upstream was 0.81,and the minimum（critical） amount in the downstream was 0.52.It was also concluded that this dam is safe in comparison with the behaviors of other similar dams in the world.展开更多
The EM algorithm is a very popular maximum likelihood estimation method, the iterative algorithm for solving the maximum likelihood estimator when the observation data is the incomplete data, but also is very effectiv...The EM algorithm is a very popular maximum likelihood estimation method, the iterative algorithm for solving the maximum likelihood estimator when the observation data is the incomplete data, but also is very effective algorithm to estimate the finite mixture model parameters. However, EM algorithm can not guarantee to find the global optimal solution, and often easy to fall into local optimal solution, so it is sensitive to the determination of initial value to iteration. Traditional EM algorithm select the initial value at random, we propose an improved method of selection of initial value. First, we use the k-nearest-neighbor method to delete outliers. Second, use the k-means to initialize the EM algorithm. Compare this method with the original random initial value method, numerical experiments show that the parameter estimation effect of the initialization of the EM algorithm is significantly better than the effect of the original EM algorithm.展开更多
In order to describe and predict the kinetic process of discontinuous dynamic recrystallization （DDRX） during hot workingfor metals with low to medium stacking fault energies quantitatively, a new physically-based m...In order to describe and predict the kinetic process of discontinuous dynamic recrystallization （DDRX） during hot workingfor metals with low to medium stacking fault energies quantitatively, a new physically-based model was proposed by considering thecharacteristics of grain size distribution, capillary effect of initial grain boundaries （GBs） and continuous consumption of GBs. UsingIncoloy 028 alloy as a model system, experiments aiming to provide kinetic data （e.g., the size and volume fraction of recrystallizedgrain） and the associated microstructure were performed. Good agreement is obtained between model predictions and experimentalresults, regarding flow stress, recrystallized fraction and grain size evolution. On this basis, a thermo-kinetic relationship upon thegrowth of recrystallized grain was elucidated, i.e., with increasing thermodynamic driving force, the activation energy barrierdecreases.展开更多
Initial residual stress is the main reason causing machining deformation of the workpiece,which has been deemed as one of the most important aspects of machining quality issues.The inference of the distribution of ini...Initial residual stress is the main reason causing machining deformation of the workpiece,which has been deemed as one of the most important aspects of machining quality issues.The inference of the distribution of initial residual stress inside the blank has significant meaning for machining deformation control.Due to the principle error of existing residual stress detection methods,there are still challenges in practical applications.Aiming at the detection problem of the initial residual stress field,an initial residual stress inference method by incorporating monitoring data and mechanism model is proposed in this paper.Monitoring data during machining process is used to represent the macroscopic characterization of the unbalanced residual stress,and the finite element numerical model is used as the mechanism model so as to solve the problem that the analytic mechanism model is difficult to establish;the policy gradient approach is introduced to solve the gradient descent problem of the combination of learning model and mechanism model.Finally,the initial residual stress field is obtained through iterative calculation based on the fusing method of monitoring data and mechanism model.Verification results show that the proposed inference method of initial residual stress field can accurately and effectively reflect the machining deformation in the actual machining process.展开更多
Marciniack–Kuczinski(M–K)model is widely used to predict material's forming limit curve(FLC).The prediction of FLC traditionally neglected through-thickness normal stress.However,it cannot be neglected in some f...Marciniack–Kuczinski(M–K)model is widely used to predict material's forming limit curve(FLC).The prediction of FLC traditionally neglected through-thickness normal stress.However,it cannot be neglected in some forming processes.Much work has been done to study the effect of through-thickness normal stress on FLC with constant through-thickness normal stress or constant ratio of through-thickness normal stress and maximum principal stress.In addition,based on Nakazima test process,the ratio of through-thickness normal stress and maximum principal stress has been derived,which was a function of instantaneous thickness and loading path.Here,initial groove angle in M–K model was not considered.In this paper,uniaxial tension tests and Nakazima tests were performed on 7B04 aluminum alloy.Based on Hill 48 yield criterion and M–K model,the prediction model of FLC was established.The increase of thickness can enhance FLC.Meanwhile,it is necessary to consider through-thickness normal stress and initial groove angle in prediction model.On the left side of FLC,the effect of initial groove angle on FLC is weakened by increasing sheet thickness.On the right side of FLC,the effect of initial groove angle on FLC is strengthened by increasing sheet thickness.On the right side of FLC,the relation between limit strain points with different thicknesses is linear under one certain loading path.Thickness has decisive effect on through-thickness normal stress level and the changing trendy of through-thickness normal stress during calculation is different under different stress condition.展开更多
In view of the limitations of a Rn-Gn model in the low frequency range and the defects of an En-In model in common use now, this paper builds a complete En-In model according to the theory of random harmonic. The para...In view of the limitations of a Rn-Gn model in the low frequency range and the defects of an En-In model in common use now, this paper builds a complete En-In model according to the theory of random harmonic. The parameters for the low-noise design such as the equivalent input noisy voltage Ens, the optimum source impedance Zsopt and the minimum noise figure Fmin can be calculated accurately by using this En-In model because it considers the coherence between the noise sources fully. Moreover, this paper points out that it will cause the maximum 30% miscalculation when neglecting the effects of the correlation coefficient 7. Using the series-series circuits as an example, this paper discusses the methods for the En-In noise analysis of electronic circuits preliminarily and demonstrates its correctness through the comparison between the simulated and measured results of the minimum noise figure Fmin of a single current series negative feedback circuit.展开更多
Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by cal...Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.展开更多
Influence of identical applied initial pressures on the radial surfaces of a hollow cylinder which is compose of materials with first power hypo-elastic constitutive model was investigated.The basic equations of the p...Influence of identical applied initial pressures on the radial surfaces of a hollow cylinder which is compose of materials with first power hypo-elastic constitutive model was investigated.The basic equations of the problem were built up based on the framework of piecewise homogeneous body model with the use of three-dimensional linearized theory of elastic waves in initially stressed bodies(TLTEWISB).With the method proposed previously,this problem was then solved numerically.Moreover,the dispersion group velocity of the lowest order mode with different initial pressures was also studied.It can be concluded that the initial pressure and the geometry parameters will induce considerable changes of different degrees in dispersive relation between phase velocity and wave number in opposite trend(positive in initial pressure and negative in thickness).展开更多
1 INTRODUCTION The initial state of the atmosphere is one of the key factors that affect the result of NWP. With the development of increasingly finer NWP, the quality of initial atmospheric state has been drawing mor...1 INTRODUCTION The initial state of the atmosphere is one of the key factors that affect the result of NWP. With the development of increasingly finer NWP, the quality of initial atmospheric state has been drawing more and more attention . GRAPES 3D- Var （Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System , a three-dimensional variational data assimilation subsystem developed by the Chinese Academy of Atmospheric Sciences, makes a solution to the issue of NWP data vacancy in China. Owing to it, quantitative application of satellite and radar data in NWP has significant breakthroughs. With the assimilation system of GRAPES 3D-Var and GRAPES regional mesoscale model, this work compares a control and assimilation experiment with regard to a cold air surge affecting south China in late December 2004 and analyzes the sensitivity of mesoscale model forecast on initial values and the effect of initialization on the improvement of forecasting capabilities.展开更多
With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）, the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly （NCEPWSA） and FSU wind stress anomaly （FSUWSA） is analyzed, and the predi...With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）, the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly （NCEPWSA） and FSU wind stress anomaly （FSUWSA） is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model （ZC coupled model） with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 E1 Nino 6 to 8 months ahead, further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 E1 Nino event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.展开更多
The safety of the initial support during the construction of inclined shafts in tunnels traversing through high-hydraulic-pressure surrounding rocks is paramount.This study examines a high-hydraulic-pressure inclined ...The safety of the initial support during the construction of inclined shafts in tunnels traversing through high-hydraulic-pressure surrounding rocks is paramount.This study examines a high-hydraulic-pressure inclined shaft of a tunnel in Western Sichuan Province to analyze the damage characteristics of the initial support and propose a radial drainage and decompression treatment method.Field monitoring was conducted to assess the load and deformation of the initial support structure,and on-site investigations identified the distribution of cracked areas.In addition,numerical simulations were performed to evaluate the force and deformation characteristics of the initial support structure,which were then compared with field observations for validation.The variations in the lateral pressure coefficient and water pressure were evaluated.The results revealed that damage was primarily concentrated in the shoulder,spring line,and knee areas,with the bending moment at the knee increasing by up to 66.9%.The application of the radial drainage and decompression treatment method effectively reduced water pressure loads on the initial support.Post-treatment analysis indicated significant reductions in axial force and bending moment,enhancing structural stability.These findings provide valuable insights for improving the safety and durability of initial support systems in inclined shafts of high-hydraulicpressure railroad tunnels.展开更多
The initial condition Ωde（zini）=n^2（1＋zini）^-2/4 at zini = 2000,widely used to solve the differential equation of the density of the new agegraphic dark energy（NADE） Ωde,makes the NADE model a single-paramete...The initial condition Ωde（zini）=n^2（1＋zini）^-2/4 at zini = 2000,widely used to solve the differential equation of the density of the new agegraphic dark energy（NADE） Ωde,makes the NADE model a single-parameter dark-energy cosmological model.However,we find that this initial condition is only applicable in a flat universe with only dark energy and pressureless matter.In fact,in order to obtain more information from current observational data,such as the cosmic microwave background（CMB） and the baryon acoustic oscillations（BAO）,we need to consider the contribution of radiation.For this situation,the initial condition mentioned above becomes invalid.To overcome this shortcoming,we investigate the evolutions of dark energy in matter-dominated and radiation-dominated epochs,and obtain a new initial condition de（zini）=n2（1＋zini）-2（1＋F（zini））2/4 at z ini = 2000,where F（z）≡Ωr0（1＋z）/[Ωm0＋Ωr0（1＋z）] with Ωr0 and Ωm0 being the current density parameters of radiation and pressureless matter,respectively.This revised initial condition is applicable for the differential equation of Ωde obtained in the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker（FRW） universe with dark energy,pressureless matter,radiation,and even spatial curvature,and can still keep the NADE model as a single-parameter model.With the revised initial condition and the observational data of type Ia supernova（SNIa）,CMB,and BAO,we finally constrain the NADE model.The results show that the single free parameter n of the NADE model can be constrained tightly.展开更多
Acute myeloid leukemia(AML) is an aggressive malignant disease defined by abnormal expansion of myeloid blasts. Despite recent advances in understanding AML pathogenesis and identifying their molecular subtypes based ...Acute myeloid leukemia(AML) is an aggressive malignant disease defined by abnormal expansion of myeloid blasts. Despite recent advances in understanding AML pathogenesis and identifying their molecular subtypes based on somatic mutations, AML is still characterized by poor outcomes, with a 5-year survival rate of only 30%-40%, the majority of the patients dying due to AML relapse. Leukemia stem cells(LSC) are considered to be at the root of chemotherapeutic resistance and AML relapse. Although numerous studies have tried to better characterize LSCs in terms of surface and molecular markers, a specific marker of LSC has not been found, and still the most universally accepted phenotypic signature remains the surface antigens CD34+CD38- that is shared with normal hematopoietic stem cells. Animal models provides the means to investigate the factors responsible for leukemic transformation, the intrinsic differences between secondary post-myeloproliferative neoplasm AML and de novo AML, especially the signaling pathways involved in inflammation and hematopoiesis. However, AML proved to be one of the hematological malignancies that is difficult to engraft even in the most immunodeficient mice strains, and numerous ongoing attempts are focused to develop "humanized mice" that can support the engraftment of LSC. This present review is aiming to in-troduce the field of AML pathogenesis and the concept of LSC, to present the current knowledge on leukemic blasts surface markers and recent attempts to develop best AML animal models.展开更多
The chemical oxygen demand (COD) is selected as the index in this paper. The system dynamics method is used to analyze the emission right price of medical sewage, the boundary of the emission right price system is det...The chemical oxygen demand (COD) is selected as the index in this paper. The system dynamics method is used to analyze the emission right price of medical sewage, the boundary of the emission right price system is determined, and the system dynamics model of the initial emission right of medical sewage is constructed, in which the system is divided into water resources subsystem, population subsystem, economic subsystem and social subsystem. It is expected to expand the theory of the system modeling of the initial discharge right of medical sewage, and to provide the basis for the relevant decision of the environmental management authorities.展开更多
Initial condition and model errors both contribute to the loss of atmospheric predictability.However,it remains debatable which type of error has the larger impact on the prediction lead time of specific states.In thi...Initial condition and model errors both contribute to the loss of atmospheric predictability.However,it remains debatable which type of error has the larger impact on the prediction lead time of specific states.In this study,we perform a theoretical study to investigate the relative effects of initial condition and model errors on local prediction lead time of given states in the Lorenz model.Using the backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method,the prediction lead time,also called local backward predictability limit(LBPL),of given states induced by the two types of errors can be quantitatively estimated.Results show that the structure of the Lorenz attractor leads to a layered distribution of LBPLs of states.On an individual circular orbit,the LBPLs are roughly the same,whereas they are different on different orbits.The spatial distributions of LBPLs show that the relative effects of initial condition and model errors on local backward predictability depend on the locations of given states on the dynamical trajectory and the error magnitudes.When the error magnitude is fixed,the differences between the LBPLs vary with the locations of given states.The larger differences are mainly located on the inner trajectories of regimes.When the error magnitudes are different,the dissimilarities in LBPLs are diverse for the same given state.展开更多
基金sprovided jointly by the 973 Program (Grant No.2010CB950400)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40805022 and 40821092)
文摘In this study, the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error was investigated using two simple chaotic systems： the Lorenz model, which possesses a single characteristic time scale, and the coupled Lorenz model, which possesses two different characteristic time scales. The limit of predictability is defined here as the time at which the error reaches 95% of its saturation level; nonlinear behaviors of the error growth are therefore involved in the definition of the limit of predictability. Our results show that the logarithmic function performs well in describing the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error in both models, although the coefficients in the logarithmic function were not constant across the examined range of initial errors. Compared with the Lorenz model, in the coupled Lorenz model in which the slow dynamics and the fast dynamics interact with each other--there is a more complex relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error. The limit of predictability of the Lorenz model is unbounded as the initial error becomes infinitesimally small; therefore, the limit of predictability of the Lorenz model may be extended by reducing the amplitude of the initial error. In contrast, if there exists a fixed initial error in the fast dynamics of the coupled Lorenz model, the slow dynamics has an intrinsic finite limit of predictability that cannot be extended by reducing the amplitude of the initial error in the slow dynamics, and vice versa. The findings reported here reveal the possible existence of an intrinsic finite limit of predictability in a coupled system that possesses many scales of time or motion.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NFSC Grant Nos. 41690122, 41690120, 41490644, 41490640 and 41475101)+5 种基金the Ao Shan Talents Program supported by Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Grant No. 2015ASTP)a Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Projectthe Western Pacific Ocean System (Grant Nos. XDA11010105, XDA11020306)the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China Innovative Group Grant (Grant No. 41421005)the Taishan Scholarship and Qingdao Innovative Program (Grant No. 2014GJJS0101)
文摘The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） in ocean-atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） approach was em- ployed to study the largest initial error growth in the E1 Nino predictions of an intermediate coupled model （ICM）. The optimal initial errors （as represented by CNOPs） in sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） and sea level anomalies （SLAs） were obtained with seasonal variation. The CNOP-induced perturbations, which tend to evolve into the La Nifia mode, were found to have the same dynamics as ENSO itself. This indicates that, if CNOP-type errors are present in the initial conditions used to make a prediction of E1 Nino, the E1 Nino event tends to be under-predicted. In particular, compared with other seasonal CNOPs, the CNOPs in winter can induce the largest error growth, which gives rise to an ENSO amplitude that is hardly ever predicted accurately. Additionally, it was found that the CNOP-induced perturbations exhibit a strong spring predictability barrier （SPB） phenomenon for ENSO prediction. These results offer a way to enhance ICM prediction skill and, particularly, weaken the SPB phenomenon by filtering the CNOP-type errors in the initial state. The characteristic distributions of the CNOPs derived from the ICM also provide useful information for targeted observations through data assimilation. Given the fact that the derived CNOPs are season-dependent, it is suggested that seasonally varying targeted observations should be implemented to accurately predict ENSO events.
基金supported by the Public Welfare Industry Special Fund Project of the Ministry of Water Resources of China (Grant No. 200701028)the Humanities and Social Science Foundation Program of Hohai University (Grant No. 2008421411)
文摘The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.
基金the National Key BasicResearch and Development Project of China under GrantNo. 2004CB418301the National Natural Sciences Foun-dation of China under Grant No. 40775031"Outstand-ing Oversea Scholars" Project No.2005-2-16.
文摘Impacts of initial conditions on cloud-resolving model simulations are investigated using a series of sensitivity experiments. Five experiments with perturbed initial temperature, moisture, and cloud conditions are conducted and compared to the control experiment. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind observed and derived from NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System （GDAS）. The results indicate that model predictions of rainfall are much more sensitive to the initial conditions than those of temperature and moisture. Further analyses of the surface rainfall equation and the moisture and cloud hydrometeor budgets reveal that the calculations of vapor condensation and deposition rates in the model account for the large sensitivities in rainfall simulations.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1506901)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41505084)Guangzhou Science and Technology Project(201804020038)
文摘This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),on the accuracy of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)forecasts for south China.A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was verified.Both ICs exhibited cold biases over south China,as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta(PRD).In particular,the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than NCEP.In general,the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south China.Moreover,GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the ECWMF.The results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.
文摘In this study,the behavior of Gavoshan dam was evaluated during construction and the first impounding.A two-dimensional（2D） numerical analysis was conducted based on a finite difference method on the largest cross-section of the dam using the results of instrument measurements and back analysis.These evaluations will be completed in the case that back analysis is carried out in order to control the degree of the accuracy and the level of confidence of the measured behavior since each of the measurements could be controlled by comparing it to the result obtained from the numerical model.Following that,by comparing the results of the numerical analysis with the measured values,it is indicated that there is a proper consistency between these two values.Moreover,it was observed that the dam performance was suitable regarding the induced pore water pressure,the pore water pressure ratio r;,settlement,induced stresses,arching degree,and hydraulic fracturing probability during the construction and initial impounding periods.The results demonstrated that the maximum settlement of the core was 238 cm at the end of construction.In the following 6 years after construction（initial impounding and exploitation period）,the accumulative settlement of the dam was 270 cm.It is clear that 88% of the total settlement of the dam took place during dam construction.The reason is that the clay core was smashed in the wet side,i.e.the optimum moisture content.Whereas the average curving ratio was 0.64 during dam construction; at the end of the initial impounding,the maximum amount of curving ratio in the upstream was 0.81,and the minimum（critical） amount in the downstream was 0.52.It was also concluded that this dam is safe in comparison with the behaviors of other similar dams in the world.
文摘The EM algorithm is a very popular maximum likelihood estimation method, the iterative algorithm for solving the maximum likelihood estimator when the observation data is the incomplete data, but also is very effective algorithm to estimate the finite mixture model parameters. However, EM algorithm can not guarantee to find the global optimal solution, and often easy to fall into local optimal solution, so it is sensitive to the determination of initial value to iteration. Traditional EM algorithm select the initial value at random, we propose an improved method of selection of initial value. First, we use the k-nearest-neighbor method to delete outliers. Second, use the k-means to initialize the EM algorithm. Compare this method with the original random initial value method, numerical experiments show that the parameter estimation effect of the initialization of the EM algorithm is significantly better than the effect of the original EM algorithm.
基金Project(51431008)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2017YFB0703001,2017YFB0305100)supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China
文摘In order to describe and predict the kinetic process of discontinuous dynamic recrystallization （DDRX） during hot workingfor metals with low to medium stacking fault energies quantitatively, a new physically-based model was proposed by considering thecharacteristics of grain size distribution, capillary effect of initial grain boundaries （GBs） and continuous consumption of GBs. UsingIncoloy 028 alloy as a model system, experiments aiming to provide kinetic data （e.g., the size and volume fraction of recrystallizedgrain） and the associated microstructure were performed. Good agreement is obtained between model predictions and experimentalresults, regarding flow stress, recrystallized fraction and grain size evolution. On this basis, a thermo-kinetic relationship upon thegrowth of recrystallized grain was elucidated, i.e., with increasing thermodynamic driving force, the activation energy barrierdecreases.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51775278)National Science Fund of China for Distinguished Young Scholars(Grant No.51925505).
文摘Initial residual stress is the main reason causing machining deformation of the workpiece,which has been deemed as one of the most important aspects of machining quality issues.The inference of the distribution of initial residual stress inside the blank has significant meaning for machining deformation control.Due to the principle error of existing residual stress detection methods,there are still challenges in practical applications.Aiming at the detection problem of the initial residual stress field,an initial residual stress inference method by incorporating monitoring data and mechanism model is proposed in this paper.Monitoring data during machining process is used to represent the macroscopic characterization of the unbalanced residual stress,and the finite element numerical model is used as the mechanism model so as to solve the problem that the analytic mechanism model is difficult to establish;the policy gradient approach is introduced to solve the gradient descent problem of the combination of learning model and mechanism model.Finally,the initial residual stress field is obtained through iterative calculation based on the fusing method of monitoring data and mechanism model.Verification results show that the proposed inference method of initial residual stress field can accurately and effectively reflect the machining deformation in the actual machining process.
基金the support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51575028)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(YWF-18-BJ-J-75)。
文摘Marciniack–Kuczinski(M–K)model is widely used to predict material's forming limit curve(FLC).The prediction of FLC traditionally neglected through-thickness normal stress.However,it cannot be neglected in some forming processes.Much work has been done to study the effect of through-thickness normal stress on FLC with constant through-thickness normal stress or constant ratio of through-thickness normal stress and maximum principal stress.In addition,based on Nakazima test process,the ratio of through-thickness normal stress and maximum principal stress has been derived,which was a function of instantaneous thickness and loading path.Here,initial groove angle in M–K model was not considered.In this paper,uniaxial tension tests and Nakazima tests were performed on 7B04 aluminum alloy.Based on Hill 48 yield criterion and M–K model,the prediction model of FLC was established.The increase of thickness can enhance FLC.Meanwhile,it is necessary to consider through-thickness normal stress and initial groove angle in prediction model.On the left side of FLC,the effect of initial groove angle on FLC is weakened by increasing sheet thickness.On the right side of FLC,the effect of initial groove angle on FLC is strengthened by increasing sheet thickness.On the right side of FLC,the relation between limit strain points with different thicknesses is linear under one certain loading path.Thickness has decisive effect on through-thickness normal stress level and the changing trendy of through-thickness normal stress during calculation is different under different stress condition.
文摘In view of the limitations of a Rn-Gn model in the low frequency range and the defects of an En-In model in common use now, this paper builds a complete En-In model according to the theory of random harmonic. The parameters for the low-noise design such as the equivalent input noisy voltage Ens, the optimum source impedance Zsopt and the minimum noise figure Fmin can be calculated accurately by using this En-In model because it considers the coherence between the noise sources fully. Moreover, this paper points out that it will cause the maximum 30% miscalculation when neglecting the effects of the correlation coefficient 7. Using the series-series circuits as an example, this paper discusses the methods for the En-In noise analysis of electronic circuits preliminarily and demonstrates its correctness through the comparison between the simulated and measured results of the minimum noise figure Fmin of a single current series negative feedback circuit.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405062, 41775017)。
文摘Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.
基金Project(51378463)supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Influence of identical applied initial pressures on the radial surfaces of a hollow cylinder which is compose of materials with first power hypo-elastic constitutive model was investigated.The basic equations of the problem were built up based on the framework of piecewise homogeneous body model with the use of three-dimensional linearized theory of elastic waves in initially stressed bodies(TLTEWISB).With the method proposed previously,this problem was then solved numerically.Moreover,the dispersion group velocity of the lowest order mode with different initial pressures was also studied.It can be concluded that the initial pressure and the geometry parameters will induce considerable changes of different degrees in dispersive relation between phase velocity and wave number in opposite trend(positive in initial pressure and negative in thickness).
基金Key Scientific Research Project of Guangdong (2004B32601002)Promotion Project forLatest Meteorological Technology (CMATG2005M17)+1 种基金National Project No.973 (2004CB18307)"Research onAssimilation Techniques for Tropics based on Modern Observation Technologies"
文摘1 INTRODUCTION The initial state of the atmosphere is one of the key factors that affect the result of NWP. With the development of increasingly finer NWP, the quality of initial atmospheric state has been drawing more and more attention . GRAPES 3D- Var （Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System , a three-dimensional variational data assimilation subsystem developed by the Chinese Academy of Atmospheric Sciences, makes a solution to the issue of NWP data vacancy in China. Owing to it, quantitative application of satellite and radar data in NWP has significant breakthroughs. With the assimilation system of GRAPES 3D-Var and GRAPES regional mesoscale model, this work compares a control and assimilation experiment with regard to a cold air surge affecting south China in late December 2004 and analyzes the sensitivity of mesoscale model forecast on initial values and the effect of initialization on the improvement of forecasting capabilities.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (40275016)Science and Technology DevelopmentProject for the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau (0301)
文摘With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）, the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly （NCEPWSA） and FSU wind stress anomaly （FSUWSA） is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model （ZC coupled model） with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 E1 Nino 6 to 8 months ahead, further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 E1 Nino event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42277165,41920104007)the Hubei Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.2023AFD217).
文摘The safety of the initial support during the construction of inclined shafts in tunnels traversing through high-hydraulic-pressure surrounding rocks is paramount.This study examines a high-hydraulic-pressure inclined shaft of a tunnel in Western Sichuan Province to analyze the damage characteristics of the initial support and propose a radial drainage and decompression treatment method.Field monitoring was conducted to assess the load and deformation of the initial support structure,and on-site investigations identified the distribution of cracked areas.In addition,numerical simulations were performed to evaluate the force and deformation characteristics of the initial support structure,which were then compared with field observations for validation.The variations in the lateral pressure coefficient and water pressure were evaluated.The results revealed that damage was primarily concentrated in the shoulder,spring line,and knee areas,with the bending moment at the knee increasing by up to 66.9%.The application of the radial drainage and decompression treatment method effectively reduced water pressure loads on the initial support.Post-treatment analysis indicated significant reductions in axial force and bending moment,enhancing structural stability.These findings provide valuable insights for improving the safety and durability of initial support systems in inclined shafts of high-hydraulicpressure railroad tunnels.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10705041,10975032,11047112,and 11175042)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents at the University of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. NCET-09-0276)the National Ministry of Education of China(Grant Nos. N100505001 and N110405011)
文摘The initial condition Ωde（zini）=n^2（1＋zini）^-2/4 at zini = 2000,widely used to solve the differential equation of the density of the new agegraphic dark energy（NADE） Ωde,makes the NADE model a single-parameter dark-energy cosmological model.However,we find that this initial condition is only applicable in a flat universe with only dark energy and pressureless matter.In fact,in order to obtain more information from current observational data,such as the cosmic microwave background（CMB） and the baryon acoustic oscillations（BAO）,we need to consider the contribution of radiation.For this situation,the initial condition mentioned above becomes invalid.To overcome this shortcoming,we investigate the evolutions of dark energy in matter-dominated and radiation-dominated epochs,and obtain a new initial condition de（zini）=n2（1＋zini）-2（1＋F（zini））2/4 at z ini = 2000,where F（z）≡Ωr0（1＋z）/[Ωm0＋Ωr0（1＋z）] with Ωr0 and Ωm0 being the current density parameters of radiation and pressureless matter,respectively.This revised initial condition is applicable for the differential equation of Ωde obtained in the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker（FRW） universe with dark energy,pressureless matter,radiation,and even spatial curvature,and can still keep the NADE model as a single-parameter model.With the revised initial condition and the observational data of type Ia supernova（SNIa）,CMB,and BAO,we finally constrain the NADE model.The results show that the single free parameter n of the NADE model can be constrained tightly.
基金Supported by The project Competitiveness Operational Programme(COP)A1.1.4.,No.P_37_798,Contract 149/26.10.2016(My SMIS2014+:106774)
文摘Acute myeloid leukemia(AML) is an aggressive malignant disease defined by abnormal expansion of myeloid blasts. Despite recent advances in understanding AML pathogenesis and identifying their molecular subtypes based on somatic mutations, AML is still characterized by poor outcomes, with a 5-year survival rate of only 30%-40%, the majority of the patients dying due to AML relapse. Leukemia stem cells(LSC) are considered to be at the root of chemotherapeutic resistance and AML relapse. Although numerous studies have tried to better characterize LSCs in terms of surface and molecular markers, a specific marker of LSC has not been found, and still the most universally accepted phenotypic signature remains the surface antigens CD34+CD38- that is shared with normal hematopoietic stem cells. Animal models provides the means to investigate the factors responsible for leukemic transformation, the intrinsic differences between secondary post-myeloproliferative neoplasm AML and de novo AML, especially the signaling pathways involved in inflammation and hematopoiesis. However, AML proved to be one of the hematological malignancies that is difficult to engraft even in the most immunodeficient mice strains, and numerous ongoing attempts are focused to develop "humanized mice" that can support the engraftment of LSC. This present review is aiming to in-troduce the field of AML pathogenesis and the concept of LSC, to present the current knowledge on leukemic blasts surface markers and recent attempts to develop best AML animal models.
文摘The chemical oxygen demand (COD) is selected as the index in this paper. The system dynamics method is used to analyze the emission right price of medical sewage, the boundary of the emission right price system is determined, and the system dynamics model of the initial emission right of medical sewage is constructed, in which the system is divided into water resources subsystem, population subsystem, economic subsystem and social subsystem. It is expected to expand the theory of the system modeling of the initial discharge right of medical sewage, and to provide the basis for the relevant decision of the environmental management authorities.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42005054,41975070)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No.2020M681154)。
文摘Initial condition and model errors both contribute to the loss of atmospheric predictability.However,it remains debatable which type of error has the larger impact on the prediction lead time of specific states.In this study,we perform a theoretical study to investigate the relative effects of initial condition and model errors on local prediction lead time of given states in the Lorenz model.Using the backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method,the prediction lead time,also called local backward predictability limit(LBPL),of given states induced by the two types of errors can be quantitatively estimated.Results show that the structure of the Lorenz attractor leads to a layered distribution of LBPLs of states.On an individual circular orbit,the LBPLs are roughly the same,whereas they are different on different orbits.The spatial distributions of LBPLs show that the relative effects of initial condition and model errors on local backward predictability depend on the locations of given states on the dynamical trajectory and the error magnitudes.When the error magnitude is fixed,the differences between the LBPLs vary with the locations of given states.The larger differences are mainly located on the inner trajectories of regimes.When the error magnitudes are different,the dissimilarities in LBPLs are diverse for the same given state.
