In this paper,the types of research methods that contain uncertainty are first introduced,and then the description is concentrated on the progress of study on different types of uncertainties in seismic disaster and l...In this paper,the types of research methods that contain uncertainty are first introduced,and then the description is concentrated on the progress of study on different types of uncertainties in seismic disaster and loss estimation. The main methods applied to uncertainty study are reviewed. Preliminary discussion of the problems currently existing in estimation is also made.展开更多
Losses due to hazards are inevitable and numerical simulations for estimations are complex.This study proposes a model for estimating correlated seismic damages and losses of a water supply pipeline system as an alter...Losses due to hazards are inevitable and numerical simulations for estimations are complex.This study proposes a model for estimating correlated seismic damages and losses of a water supply pipeline system as an alternative for numerical simulations.The common approach in other research shows average damage spots per mesh estimated statistically independent to one another.Spatially distributed lifeline systems,such as water supply pipelines,are interconnected,and seismic spatial variability affects the damages across the region;thus,spatial correlation of damage spots is an important factor in target areas for portfolio loss estimation.Generally,simulations are used to estimate possible losses;however,these assume each damage behaves independently and uncorrelated.This paper assumed that damages per mesh behave in a Poisson distribution to avoid over-dispersion and eliminate negative losses in estimations.The purpose of this study is to obtain a probabilistic portfolio loss model of an extensive water supply area.The proposed model was compared to the numerical simulation data with the correlated Poisson distribution.The application of the Normal To Anything(NORTA)obtained correlations for Poisson Distributions.The proposed probabilistic portfolio loss model,based on the generalized linear model and central limit theory,estimated the possible losses,such as the Probable Maximum Loss(PML,90%non-exceedance)or Normal Expected Loss(NEL,50%non-exceedance).The proposed model can be used in other lifeline systems as well,though additional investigation is needed for confirmation.From the estimations,a seismic physical portfolio loss for the water supply system was presented.The portfolio was made to show possible outcomes for the system.The proposed method was tested and analyzed using an artificial field and a location-based scenario of a water supply pipeline system.This would aid in pre-disaster planning and would require only a few steps and time.展开更多
To estimate human loss in an earthquake-prone area, it is necessary to analyze the role played by the spatiotemporal distribution of the area’s resident population. In order to evaluate earthquake impact, this articl...To estimate human loss in an earthquake-prone area, it is necessary to analyze the role played by the spatiotemporal distribution of the area’s resident population. In order to evaluate earthquake impact, this article focuses on the spatiotemporal distribution of population and five scenario earthquakes that form the basis for loss estimation in the city of Sylhet, Bangladesh. Four temporal contexts(weekday, weekly holiday, the 30 days of Ramadan, and strike days) expand the more typical daytime and nighttime settings in which to examine hazard risk. The population distribution for every 2 hour interval in a day is developed for each type of day. A relationship between the occupancy classes and average space(persons per 100 m^2)is used to distribute people in each building regardless of building locations. A total daytime and nighttime population is obtained for each building and the estimated nighttime population is used to model the population for four temporal scenarios in a year based on different factors and weights. The resulting data are employed to estimate population loss for each of the temporal and earthquake scenarios. This study used building-specific human vulnerability curves developed by the Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment(CAPRA) to obtain possible loss of life estimates. The results reveal that there is a high positive correlation between the spatiotemporal distribution of population and the potential number of casualties.展开更多
The present paper first includes a brief discussion of GIS technology. Next, the various steps in a regional earthquake damage and loss analysis are discussed, with emphasis on their implementation in the GIS environm...The present paper first includes a brief discussion of GIS technology. Next, the various steps in a regional earthquake damage and loss analysis are discussed, with emphasis on their implementation in the GIS environment. Lastly, a software of WorldRisk which was completed recently are presented to illustrate GIS based global earthquake damage and loss estimation.展开更多
In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all the social wealthes are classified according to their structural type and occupational use. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated from...In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all the social wealthes are classified according to their structural type and occupational use. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated from each facility class separately. For many regions of the world, however, the vast amount of data required by this method is difficult or impossible to obtain. The traditional method is also unable to estimate quickly the loss from an unexpected disaster earthquake. It is difficult to give the necessary risk information to help the government to rescue and relief the earthquake disaster. This paper proposes a simple estimation method of earthquake loss based on macroscopic economical index of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population distribution data. A preliminary nonlinear relation among hazard loss, seismic intensity and social wealth was developed by means of some earthquake disaster records during 1980～1995. This method was applied to analyze several assumed earthquakes. The preliminary analysis results show that the new method is effective and reasonable for quick assessment of earthquake loss.展开更多
[Objective] The paper was to study the effect of tobacco blown spot on the yield and output value of tobacco leaf.[Method]The upper,middle and lower leaves in tobacco plant were selected during the harvest period of t...[Objective] The paper was to study the effect of tobacco blown spot on the yield and output value of tobacco leaf.[Method]The upper,middle and lower leaves in tobacco plant were selected during the harvest period of tobacco to carry out loss rate estimation of yield and output value of tobacco leaf caused by different disease levels of brown spot.Regression correlation analysis was also conducted.[Result]The disease levels of brown spot had extremely significant strong negative correlation with single leaf weight of tobacco leaf,and it had extremely significant strong positive correlation with the loss rate of single leaf weight.The increase speed of loss rate of single leaf weight of middle and upper leaves was obviously faster than that of lower leaves.The loss rates of single leaf weight of upper,middle and lower leaves were 3.18%-28.95%,3.43%-28.88% and 10.07%-26.90%,respectively.The higher the disease level of blown spot was,the lower the yield and output value of tobacco leaf was,and the corresponding loss rate was also higher.Correlation analysis showed that the disease level of blown spot had extremely significant strong negative correlation with the yield and output value of tobacco leaf,and it had extremely significant strong positive correlation with the loss rate of yield and output value.The negative impact of blown spot on the output value of tobacco leaf was far greater than that on the yield.The highest loss rate of the yield of tobacco leaf was 28.56%,while the highest loss rate of output value reached 89.67%.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for accurately holding the critical period for the control of blown spot,thus reducing the damage on tobacco leaf and improving the output value of tobacco leaf.展开更多
To develop a suitable method for monitoring wheat yield loss caused by drought for dry farming areas in northwestern China, daily ET0 and ETC were calculated using KC and FAO- PM from 1961 to 2000, and wheat evapotr...To develop a suitable method for monitoring wheat yield loss caused by drought for dry farming areas in northwestern China, daily ET0 and ETC were calculated using KC and FAO- PM from 1961 to 2000, and wheat evapotranspiration with an interval of 10 days was estimated with soil water balance equation for the mountainous areas in southern Ningxia, China. Actual water consumption and water requirements of wheat during growing season was calculated using soil water balance equation by correcting leakage of soil water and run-off of precipitation every year. A model for estimation of yield loss by drought was established based on crop growth-water consumption function and yield potential. The results show that it is an effective method for monitoring drought and estimating yield loss. This method is suitable for monitoring drought and estimating yield loss of wheat in dry farming areas in northwestern China.展开更多
As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground mo...As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground motion data observed by instruments and by using the appropriate spatial interpolation methods. By combining vulnerability study results from earthquake disaster research with earthquake disaster assessment models, we can estimate the losses caused by devastating earthquakes, in an attempt to provide more reliable information for earthquake emergency response and decision support. This paper analyzes the latest progress on the methods of rapid earthquake loss estimation at home and abroad. A new method involving seismic instrument intensity rapid reporting to estimate earthquake loss is proposed and the relevant software is developed. Finally, a case study using the ML4.9 earthquake that occurred in Shun-chang county, Fujian Province on March 13, 2007 is given as an example of the proposed method.展开更多
BACKGROUND The common clinical method to evaluate blood loss during pancreaticoduoden-ectomy(PD)is visual inspection,but most scholars believe that this method is extremely subjective and inaccurate.Currently,there is...BACKGROUND The common clinical method to evaluate blood loss during pancreaticoduoden-ectomy(PD)is visual inspection,but most scholars believe that this method is extremely subjective and inaccurate.Currently,there is no accurate,objective me-thod to evaluate the amount of blood loss in PD patients.We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 341 patients who underwent PD in Shandong Provincial Hospital from March 2017 to February 2019.According to different surgical methods,they were divided into an open PD(OPD)group and a laparoscopic PD(LPD)group.The differences and correlations between the in-traoperative estimation of blood loss(IEBL)obtained by visual inspection and the intraoperative calculation of blood loss(ICBL)obtained using the Hb loss method were analyzed.ICBL,IEBL and perioperative calculation of blood loss(PCBL)were compared between the two groups,and single-factor regression analysis was performed.RESULTS There was no statistically significant difference in the preoperative general patient information between the two groups(P>0.05).PD had an ICBL of 743.2(393.0,1173.1)mL and an IEBL of 100.0(50.0,300.0)mL(P<0.001).There was also a certain correlation between the two(r=0.312,P<0.001).Single-factor analysis of ICBL showed that a history of diabetes[95%confidence interval(CI):53.82-549.62;P=0.017]was an independent risk factor for ICBL.In addition,the single-factor analysis of PCBL showed that body mass index(BMI)(95%CI:0.62-76.75;P=0.046)and preoperative total bilirubin>200μmol/L(95%CI:7.09-644.26;P=0.045)were independent risk factors for PCBL.The ICBLs of the LPD group and OPD group were 767.7(435.4,1249.0)mL and 663.8(347.7,1138.2)mL,respectively(P>0.05).The IEBL of the LPD group 200.0(50.0,200.0)mL was slightly greater than that of the OPD group 100.0(50.0,300.0)mL(P>0.05).PCBL was greater in the LPD group than the OPD group[1061.6(612.3,1632.3)mL vs 806.1(375.9,1347.6)mL](P<0.05).CONCLUSION The ICBL in patients who underwent PD was greater than the IEBL,but there is a certain correlation between the two.The Hb loss method can be used to evaluate intraoperative blood loss.A history of diabetes,preoperative bilirubin>200μmol/L and high BMI increase the patient's risk of bleeding.展开更多
Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency d...Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency decisionmaking.This study using the February 6,2023,M_(S)8.0 and M_(S)7.9 Kahramanmaras,Türkiye earthquakes as an example to estimate the ultimate number of fatalities.An early Quick Rough Estimate(QRE)based on the number of deaths reported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye(AFAD)is conducted,and it dynamically adjusts these estimates as new data becomes available.The range of estimates of the final number of deaths can be calculated as 31384–56475 based on the"the QRE of the second day multiplied by 2–3" rule,which incorporates the reported final deaths 50500.The Quasi-Linear and Adaptive Estimation(QLAE)method adaptively adjusts the final fatality estimate within two days and predicts subsequent reported deaths.The correct order of magnitude of the final death toll can be estimated as early as 13 hr after the M_(S)8.0 earthquake.In addition,additional earthquakes such as May 12,2008,M_(S)8.1 Wenchuan earthquake(China),September 8,2023,M_(S)7.2 Al Haouz earthquake(Morocco),November 3,2023,M_(S)5.8 Mid-Western Nepal earthquake,December 18,2023,M_(S)6.1 Jishishan earthquake(China),January 1,2024,M_(S)7.2 Noto Peninsula earthquake(Japan)and August 8,2023,Maui,Hawaii,fires are added again to verified the correctness of the model.The fatalities from the Maui fires are found to be approximately equivalent to those resulting from an M_(S)7.4 earthquake.These methods complement existing frameworks such as Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation(QLARM)and Prompt Assessment of Global.展开更多
BACKGROUND Objective and accurate assessment of blood loss during pancreaticoduodenectomy(PD)is crucial for ensuring the safety and efficacy of the procedure.While the visual method remains the most common clinical me...BACKGROUND Objective and accurate assessment of blood loss during pancreaticoduodenectomy(PD)is crucial for ensuring the safety and efficacy of the procedure.While the visual method remains the most common clinical metric,many scholars argue that it significantly differs from actual blood loss and is inherently subjective.AIM To assess blood loss in PD via delta hemoglobin(ΔHb)and compare it with the visual method to predict bleeding-related risk factors.METHODS In this retrospective analysis,1722 patients who underwent PD from 2017 to 2022 at Shandong Provincial Hospital were divided into three groups:Open PD(OPD),laparoscopic PD(LPD),and conversion to OPD(CTOPD).IntraoperativeΔHb(IΔHb)was calculated via preoperative and 72-hour-postoperative hemoglobin concentrations,and its association with visually obtained estimated blood loss(EBL)was analyzed.PerioperativeΔHb(PΔHb)was calculated via preoperative and predischarge hemoglobin concentrations.We compared the differences in IΔHb and PΔHb among the three groups,and performed univariate and multi-variate regression analyses of IΔHb and PΔHb.RESULTS The preoperative general information of patients showed no statistically si-gnificant difference among the three groups(P>0.05).The IΔHb in the OPD,LPD,and CTOPD groups were 22.00(12.00,36.00),21.00(10.00,33.00),and 33.00(18.12,52.24)g/L,respectively;And the PΔHb in the OPD,LPD,and CTOPD groups were 25.87(13.51,42.00),25.00(14.00,45.00),and 37.48(21.64,59.65)g/L,respectively,values significantly differed(P<0.05).IΔHb and EBL were significantly correlated(r=0.337,P<0.001).The results of univariate and multivariate regression analyses indicated that American Society of Anesthesiologists(ASA)classification IV[95%confidence interval(CI):2.330-37.811,P=0.049]and preoperative total bilirubin>200μmol/L(95%CI:2.805-8.673,P<0.001)were independent risk factors for IΔHb(P<0.05),and ASA classification IV(95%CI:45.934-105.485,P<0.001),body mass index>24 kg/m2(95%CI:1.285-9.890,P=0.011),and preoperative total bilirubin>200μmol/L(95%CI:6.948-16.797,P<0.001)were independent risk factors for PΔHb(P<0.05).CONCLUSION There is a correlation between IΔHb and EBL in PD,so we can assess the patients’intraoperative blood loss by theΔHb method.ASA classification IV,body mass index>24 kg/m²,and preoperative total bilirubin>200μmol/L increased perioperative bleeding risk.展开更多
Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of...Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of influence is very useful and important for the effective establishment of a reduction plan. In general, the information is supported by a red-tide（a.k.a algal bloom） model. The performance of the model is highly dependent on the accuracy of parameters, which are the coefficients of functions approximating the biological growth and loss patterns of the C. polykrikoides. These parameters have been estimated using the bioassay data composed of growth-limiting factor and net growth rate value pairs. In the case of the C. polykrikoides, the parameters are different from each other in accordance with the used data because the bioassay data are sufficient compared to the other algal species. The parameters estimated by one specific dataset can be viewed as locally-optimized because they are adjusted only by that dataset. In cases where the other one data set is used, the estimation error might be considerable. In this study, the parameters are estimated by all available data sets without the use of only one specific data set and thus can be considered globally optimized. The cost function for the optimization is defined as the integrated mean squared estimation error, i.e., the difference between the values of the experimental and estimated rates. Based on quantitative error analysis, the root-mean squared errors of the global parameters show smaller values, approximately 25%–50%, than the values of the local parameters. In addition, bias is removed completely in the case of the globally estimated parameters. The parameter sets can be used as the reference default values of a red-tide model because they are optimal and representative. However, additional tuning of the parameters using the in-situ monitoring data is highly required.As opposed to the bioassay data, it is necessary because the bioassay data have limitations in terms of the in-situ coastal conditions.展开更多
This paper summarizes the research on non-structural elements and building contents being conducted at University of Canterbury in New Zealand. Since the 2010-2011 series of Canterbury earthquakes, in which damage to ...This paper summarizes the research on non-structural elements and building contents being conducted at University of Canterbury in New Zealand. Since the 2010-2011 series of Canterbury earthquakes, in which damage to non-structural components and contents contributed heavily to downtime and overall financial loss, attention to seismic performance and design of non-structural components and contents in buildings has increased exponentially in NZ. This has resulted in an increased allocation of resources to research leading to development of more resilient non-structural systems in buildings that would incur substantially less damage and cause little downtime during earthquakes. In the last few years, NZ researchers have made important developments in understanding and improving the seismic performance of secondary building elements such as partitions, facades, ceilings and contents.展开更多
Ozone（O3） concentration and flux（Fo） were measured using the eddy covariance technique over a wheat field in the Northwest-Shandong Plain of China. The O3-induced wheat yield loss was estimated by utilizing O3expo...Ozone（O3） concentration and flux（Fo） were measured using the eddy covariance technique over a wheat field in the Northwest-Shandong Plain of China. The O3-induced wheat yield loss was estimated by utilizing O3exposure-response models. The results showed that：（1） During the growing season（7 March to 7 June, 2012）, the minimum（16.1 ppb V） and maximum（53.3 ppb V）mean O3 concentrations occurred at approximately 6：30 and 16：00, respectively. The mean and maximum of all measured O3 concentrations were 31.3 and 128.4 ppb V, respectively. The variation of O3 concentration was mainly affected by solar radiation and temperature.（2） The mean diurnal variation of deposition velocity（V d） can be divided into four phases, and the maximum occurred at noon（12：00）. Averaged V d during daytime（6：00–18：00） and nighttime（18：00–6：00） were 0.42 and 0.14 cm/sec, respectively. The maximum of measured V d was about1.5 cm/sec. The magnitude of V d was influenced by the wheat growing stage, and its variation was significantly correlated with both global radiation and friction velocity.（3） The maximum mean F o appeared at 14：00, and the maximum measured F o was-33.5 nmol/（m^2·sec）. Averaged F o during daytime and nighttime were-6.9 and-1.5 nmol/（m^2·sec）, respectively.（4） Using O3 exposure-response functions obtained from the USA, Europe, and China, the O3-induced wheat yield reduction in the district was estimated as 12.9% on average（5.5%–23.3%）. Large uncertainties were related to the statistical methods and environmental conditions involved in deriving the exposure-response functions.展开更多
This paper proposes a risk analysis framework for substation structures based on reliability methods.Even though several risk assessment approaches have been developed for buildings,detailed risk analysis procedures f...This paper proposes a risk analysis framework for substation structures based on reliability methods.Even though several risk assessment approaches have been developed for buildings,detailed risk analysis procedures for infrastructure components have been lacking in prior studies.The proposed framework is showcased by its application to a system of interconnected structures at a power substation in Tehran.Finite element models of structures are developed and validated in accordance with previous experiments.The uncertainties in the material,mass,and geometric properties of structures are described by random variables that are input to the finite element model.An artificial ground motion model is employed to comprehensively consider uncertainty in ground motion.Monte Carlo sampling is subsequently conducted on the library of probabilistic models.The analysis resulted in the loss distribution in the life cycle of structures.Additionally,the loss associated with six earthquake scenarios having specific magnitudes and return periods is computed.The application provides insight into the most vulnerable equipment in the considered system.Furthermore,introduced risk measures can guide stakeholders to make risk-based decisions to optimize design or prioritize a retrofit of infrastructure components under conditions of uncertainty.展开更多
The buildings＇ capacity to maintain minimum structural safety levels during natural disasters, such as earthquakes, is recognisably one of the aspects that most influence urban resilience. Moreover, the public invest...The buildings＇ capacity to maintain minimum structural safety levels during natural disasters, such as earthquakes, is recognisably one of the aspects that most influence urban resilience. Moreover, the public investment in risk mitigation strategies is fimdamental, not only to promote social and urban and resilience, but also to limit consequent material, human and environmental losses. Despite the growing awareness of this issue, there is still a vast number of traditional masonry buildings spread throughout many European old city centres that lacks of adequate seismic resistance, requiring therefore urgent retrofitting interventions in order to both reduce their seismic vulnerability and to cope with the increased seismic requirements of recent code standards. Thus, this paper aims at contributing to mitigate the social and economic impacts of earthquake damage scenarios through the development of vulnerability-based comparative analysis of some of the most popularretrofitting techniques applied after the 1998 Azores earthquake. The influence of each technique individually and globally studied resorting to a seismic vulnerability index methodology integrated into a GIS tool and damage and loss scenarios are constructed and critically discussed. Finally, the economic balance resulting from the implementation of that techniques are also examined.展开更多
Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts.The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly incorporating t...Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts.The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly incorporating the uncertainty and spatial correlation of the loss.This study proposed a new approach for rapidly estimating post-earthquake building loss with reasonable accuracy.The proposed method interpolates ground motion based on the observed ground motion using the Ground Motion Prediction Equation(GMPE)as the weight.It samples the building seismic loss quantile considering the spatial loss correlation that is expressed by Gaussian copula,and kriging is applied to reduce the dimension of direct sampling for estimation speed.The proposed approach was validated using three historical earthquake events in Japan with actual loss reports,and was then applied to predict the building loss amount for the March 2022 Fukushima Mw7.3 earthquake.The proposed method has high potential in future emergency efforts such as search,rescue,and evacuation planning.展开更多
During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the ...During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing ＂Insur Tech＂ tools to address the much needed ＂Insurance for the Masses＂, especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists.This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing financial risk due to natural catastrophes. Historical losses and the share of those losses covered by insurance will be presented. How such risk sharing can help the nation share the burden of losses between tax paying public, the ＂at risk＂ property owners, the insurers and the reinsurers will be discussed. The paper will summarize the tools that are used by the insurance and reinsurance companies for estimating their future losses due to catastrophic natural events. The paper will also show how the results of loss estimation technologies developed by engineers are communicated to the business flow of insurance/reinsurance companies. Finally, to make it possible to grow ＂Insurance for the Masses - IFM＂, the role played by parametric insurance products and Insur Tech tools will be discussed.展开更多
This study uses the Neural Network(NN)technique to optimize design of surfacemounted Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors(PMSMs)for More-Electric Aircraft(MEA)applications.The key role of NN is to provide dedicated cor...This study uses the Neural Network(NN)technique to optimize design of surfacemounted Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors(PMSMs)for More-Electric Aircraft(MEA)applications.The key role of NN is to provide dedicated correction factors for the analytical PMSM mass and loss estimation within the entire design space.Based on that,a globally optimal design can be quickly obtained.Matching the analytical estimation with Finite-Element Analysis(FEA)is the main research target of training the NN.Conventional analytical formulae serve as the basis of this study,but they are prone to loss accuracy(especially for a large design space)due to their assumptions and simplifications.With the help of the trained NNs,the analytical motor model can give an estimation as accurate as the FEA but with super less time during the optimization process.The Average Correction Factor(ACF)approach is regarded as the comparison method to demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed NN model.Furthermore,a NN aided three-stage-sevenstep optimization methodology is proposed.Finally,a Pole-10-Slot-12 PMSM case study is given to demonstrate the feasibility and gain of the NN aided multi-objective optimization approach.In this case,the NN aided analytical model can generate one motor design in 0.04 s while it takes more than 1 min for the used FEA model.展开更多
The seismic design criterion adopted in the existing seismic design codes is reviewed. It is pointed out that the presently used seismic design criterion is not satisfied with the requirements of nowadays social and e...The seismic design criterion adopted in the existing seismic design codes is reviewed. It is pointed out that the presently used seismic design criterion is not satisfied with the requirements of nowadays social and economic development. A new performance-based seismic design criterion that is composed of three components is presented in this paper. It can not only effectively control the economic losses and casualty, but also ensure the building's function in proper operation during earthquakes. The three components are: classification of seismic design for buildings, determination of seismic design intensity and/or seismic design ground motion for controlling seismic economic losses and casualties, and determination of the importance factors in terms of service periods of buildings. For controlling the seismic human losses, the idea of socially acceptable casualty level is presented and the 'Optimal Economic Decision Model' and 'Optimal Safe Decision Model' are established. Finally, a new method is recommended for calculating the importance factors of structures by adjusting structures service period on the base of more important structure with longer service period than the conventional ones. Therefore, the more important structure with longer service periods will be designed for higher seismic loads, in case the exceedance probability of seismic hazard in different service period is same.展开更多
基金funded by the project of "Study of Uncertainties in Earthquake Loss Estimation" of the National Natural Science Foundation,China (Grant No.40474023)
文摘In this paper,the types of research methods that contain uncertainty are first introduced,and then the description is concentrated on the progress of study on different types of uncertainties in seismic disaster and loss estimation. The main methods applied to uncertainty study are reviewed. Preliminary discussion of the problems currently existing in estimation is also made.
文摘Losses due to hazards are inevitable and numerical simulations for estimations are complex.This study proposes a model for estimating correlated seismic damages and losses of a water supply pipeline system as an alternative for numerical simulations.The common approach in other research shows average damage spots per mesh estimated statistically independent to one another.Spatially distributed lifeline systems,such as water supply pipelines,are interconnected,and seismic spatial variability affects the damages across the region;thus,spatial correlation of damage spots is an important factor in target areas for portfolio loss estimation.Generally,simulations are used to estimate possible losses;however,these assume each damage behaves independently and uncorrelated.This paper assumed that damages per mesh behave in a Poisson distribution to avoid over-dispersion and eliminate negative losses in estimations.The purpose of this study is to obtain a probabilistic portfolio loss model of an extensive water supply area.The proposed model was compared to the numerical simulation data with the correlated Poisson distribution.The application of the Normal To Anything(NORTA)obtained correlations for Poisson Distributions.The proposed probabilistic portfolio loss model,based on the generalized linear model and central limit theory,estimated the possible losses,such as the Probable Maximum Loss(PML,90%non-exceedance)or Normal Expected Loss(NEL,50%non-exceedance).The proposed model can be used in other lifeline systems as well,though additional investigation is needed for confirmation.From the estimations,a seismic physical portfolio loss for the water supply system was presented.The portfolio was made to show possible outcomes for the system.The proposed method was tested and analyzed using an artificial field and a location-based scenario of a water supply pipeline system.This would aid in pre-disaster planning and would require only a few steps and time.
文摘To estimate human loss in an earthquake-prone area, it is necessary to analyze the role played by the spatiotemporal distribution of the area’s resident population. In order to evaluate earthquake impact, this article focuses on the spatiotemporal distribution of population and five scenario earthquakes that form the basis for loss estimation in the city of Sylhet, Bangladesh. Four temporal contexts(weekday, weekly holiday, the 30 days of Ramadan, and strike days) expand the more typical daytime and nighttime settings in which to examine hazard risk. The population distribution for every 2 hour interval in a day is developed for each type of day. A relationship between the occupancy classes and average space(persons per 100 m^2)is used to distribute people in each building regardless of building locations. A total daytime and nighttime population is obtained for each building and the estimated nighttime population is used to model the population for four temporal scenarios in a year based on different factors and weights. The resulting data are employed to estimate population loss for each of the temporal and earthquake scenarios. This study used building-specific human vulnerability curves developed by the Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment(CAPRA) to obtain possible loss of life estimates. The results reveal that there is a high positive correlation between the spatiotemporal distribution of population and the potential number of casualties.
文摘The present paper first includes a brief discussion of GIS technology. Next, the various steps in a regional earthquake damage and loss analysis are discussed, with emphasis on their implementation in the GIS environment. Lastly, a software of WorldRisk which was completed recently are presented to illustrate GIS based global earthquake damage and loss estimation.
文摘In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all the social wealthes are classified according to their structural type and occupational use. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated from each facility class separately. For many regions of the world, however, the vast amount of data required by this method is difficult or impossible to obtain. The traditional method is also unable to estimate quickly the loss from an unexpected disaster earthquake. It is difficult to give the necessary risk information to help the government to rescue and relief the earthquake disaster. This paper proposes a simple estimation method of earthquake loss based on macroscopic economical index of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population distribution data. A preliminary nonlinear relation among hazard loss, seismic intensity and social wealth was developed by means of some earthquake disaster records during 1980～1995. This method was applied to analyze several assumed earthquakes. The preliminary analysis results show that the new method is effective and reasonable for quick assessment of earthquake loss.
基金Supported by State Tobacco Monopoly Administration Project "National Survey of Pests in Tobacco" (110200902065)Yunnan Tobacco Monopoly Bureau Technology Project " Investigation of Tobacco Pests in Yunnan Province" (2010YN19)~~
文摘[Objective] The paper was to study the effect of tobacco blown spot on the yield and output value of tobacco leaf.[Method]The upper,middle and lower leaves in tobacco plant were selected during the harvest period of tobacco to carry out loss rate estimation of yield and output value of tobacco leaf caused by different disease levels of brown spot.Regression correlation analysis was also conducted.[Result]The disease levels of brown spot had extremely significant strong negative correlation with single leaf weight of tobacco leaf,and it had extremely significant strong positive correlation with the loss rate of single leaf weight.The increase speed of loss rate of single leaf weight of middle and upper leaves was obviously faster than that of lower leaves.The loss rates of single leaf weight of upper,middle and lower leaves were 3.18%-28.95%,3.43%-28.88% and 10.07%-26.90%,respectively.The higher the disease level of blown spot was,the lower the yield and output value of tobacco leaf was,and the corresponding loss rate was also higher.Correlation analysis showed that the disease level of blown spot had extremely significant strong negative correlation with the yield and output value of tobacco leaf,and it had extremely significant strong positive correlation with the loss rate of yield and output value.The negative impact of blown spot on the output value of tobacco leaf was far greater than that on the yield.The highest loss rate of the yield of tobacco leaf was 28.56%,while the highest loss rate of output value reached 89.67%.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for accurately holding the critical period for the control of blown spot,thus reducing the damage on tobacco leaf and improving the output value of tobacco leaf.
文摘To develop a suitable method for monitoring wheat yield loss caused by drought for dry farming areas in northwestern China, daily ET0 and ETC were calculated using KC and FAO- PM from 1961 to 2000, and wheat evapotranspiration with an interval of 10 days was estimated with soil water balance equation for the mountainous areas in southern Ningxia, China. Actual water consumption and water requirements of wheat during growing season was calculated using soil water balance equation by correcting leakage of soil water and run-off of precipitation every year. A model for estimation of yield loss by drought was established based on crop growth-water consumption function and yield potential. The results show that it is an effective method for monitoring drought and estimating yield loss. This method is suitable for monitoring drought and estimating yield loss of wheat in dry farming areas in northwestern China.
基金National Key Technology R&D Program Granted (No. 2009BAK55B01)
文摘As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground motion data observed by instruments and by using the appropriate spatial interpolation methods. By combining vulnerability study results from earthquake disaster research with earthquake disaster assessment models, we can estimate the losses caused by devastating earthquakes, in an attempt to provide more reliable information for earthquake emergency response and decision support. This paper analyzes the latest progress on the methods of rapid earthquake loss estimation at home and abroad. A new method involving seismic instrument intensity rapid reporting to estimate earthquake loss is proposed and the relevant software is developed. Finally, a case study using the ML4.9 earthquake that occurred in Shun-chang county, Fujian Province on March 13, 2007 is given as an example of the proposed method.
基金Supported by Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation General Project,No.ZR2020MH248。
文摘BACKGROUND The common clinical method to evaluate blood loss during pancreaticoduoden-ectomy(PD)is visual inspection,but most scholars believe that this method is extremely subjective and inaccurate.Currently,there is no accurate,objective me-thod to evaluate the amount of blood loss in PD patients.We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 341 patients who underwent PD in Shandong Provincial Hospital from March 2017 to February 2019.According to different surgical methods,they were divided into an open PD(OPD)group and a laparoscopic PD(LPD)group.The differences and correlations between the in-traoperative estimation of blood loss(IEBL)obtained by visual inspection and the intraoperative calculation of blood loss(ICBL)obtained using the Hb loss method were analyzed.ICBL,IEBL and perioperative calculation of blood loss(PCBL)were compared between the two groups,and single-factor regression analysis was performed.RESULTS There was no statistically significant difference in the preoperative general patient information between the two groups(P>0.05).PD had an ICBL of 743.2(393.0,1173.1)mL and an IEBL of 100.0(50.0,300.0)mL(P<0.001).There was also a certain correlation between the two(r=0.312,P<0.001).Single-factor analysis of ICBL showed that a history of diabetes[95%confidence interval(CI):53.82-549.62;P=0.017]was an independent risk factor for ICBL.In addition,the single-factor analysis of PCBL showed that body mass index(BMI)(95%CI:0.62-76.75;P=0.046)and preoperative total bilirubin>200μmol/L(95%CI:7.09-644.26;P=0.045)were independent risk factors for PCBL.The ICBLs of the LPD group and OPD group were 767.7(435.4,1249.0)mL and 663.8(347.7,1138.2)mL,respectively(P>0.05).The IEBL of the LPD group 200.0(50.0,200.0)mL was slightly greater than that of the OPD group 100.0(50.0,300.0)mL(P>0.05).PCBL was greater in the LPD group than the OPD group[1061.6(612.3,1632.3)mL vs 806.1(375.9,1347.6)mL](P<0.05).CONCLUSION The ICBL in patients who underwent PD was greater than the IEBL,but there is a certain correlation between the two.The Hb loss method can be used to evaluate intraoperative blood loss.A history of diabetes,preoperative bilirubin>200μmol/L and high BMI increase the patient's risk of bleeding.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,grant number U2039207).
文摘Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency decisionmaking.This study using the February 6,2023,M_(S)8.0 and M_(S)7.9 Kahramanmaras,Türkiye earthquakes as an example to estimate the ultimate number of fatalities.An early Quick Rough Estimate(QRE)based on the number of deaths reported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye(AFAD)is conducted,and it dynamically adjusts these estimates as new data becomes available.The range of estimates of the final number of deaths can be calculated as 31384–56475 based on the"the QRE of the second day multiplied by 2–3" rule,which incorporates the reported final deaths 50500.The Quasi-Linear and Adaptive Estimation(QLAE)method adaptively adjusts the final fatality estimate within two days and predicts subsequent reported deaths.The correct order of magnitude of the final death toll can be estimated as early as 13 hr after the M_(S)8.0 earthquake.In addition,additional earthquakes such as May 12,2008,M_(S)8.1 Wenchuan earthquake(China),September 8,2023,M_(S)7.2 Al Haouz earthquake(Morocco),November 3,2023,M_(S)5.8 Mid-Western Nepal earthquake,December 18,2023,M_(S)6.1 Jishishan earthquake(China),January 1,2024,M_(S)7.2 Noto Peninsula earthquake(Japan)and August 8,2023,Maui,Hawaii,fires are added again to verified the correctness of the model.The fatalities from the Maui fires are found to be approximately equivalent to those resulting from an M_(S)7.4 earthquake.These methods complement existing frameworks such as Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation(QLARM)and Prompt Assessment of Global.
基金Supported by the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation General Project,No.ZR2020MH248.
文摘BACKGROUND Objective and accurate assessment of blood loss during pancreaticoduodenectomy(PD)is crucial for ensuring the safety and efficacy of the procedure.While the visual method remains the most common clinical metric,many scholars argue that it significantly differs from actual blood loss and is inherently subjective.AIM To assess blood loss in PD via delta hemoglobin(ΔHb)and compare it with the visual method to predict bleeding-related risk factors.METHODS In this retrospective analysis,1722 patients who underwent PD from 2017 to 2022 at Shandong Provincial Hospital were divided into three groups:Open PD(OPD),laparoscopic PD(LPD),and conversion to OPD(CTOPD).IntraoperativeΔHb(IΔHb)was calculated via preoperative and 72-hour-postoperative hemoglobin concentrations,and its association with visually obtained estimated blood loss(EBL)was analyzed.PerioperativeΔHb(PΔHb)was calculated via preoperative and predischarge hemoglobin concentrations.We compared the differences in IΔHb and PΔHb among the three groups,and performed univariate and multi-variate regression analyses of IΔHb and PΔHb.RESULTS The preoperative general information of patients showed no statistically si-gnificant difference among the three groups(P>0.05).The IΔHb in the OPD,LPD,and CTOPD groups were 22.00(12.00,36.00),21.00(10.00,33.00),and 33.00(18.12,52.24)g/L,respectively;And the PΔHb in the OPD,LPD,and CTOPD groups were 25.87(13.51,42.00),25.00(14.00,45.00),and 37.48(21.64,59.65)g/L,respectively,values significantly differed(P<0.05).IΔHb and EBL were significantly correlated(r=0.337,P<0.001).The results of univariate and multivariate regression analyses indicated that American Society of Anesthesiologists(ASA)classification IV[95%confidence interval(CI):2.330-37.811,P=0.049]and preoperative total bilirubin>200μmol/L(95%CI:2.805-8.673,P<0.001)were independent risk factors for IΔHb(P<0.05),and ASA classification IV(95%CI:45.934-105.485,P<0.001),body mass index>24 kg/m2(95%CI:1.285-9.890,P=0.011),and preoperative total bilirubin>200μmol/L(95%CI:6.948-16.797,P<0.001)were independent risk factors for PΔHb(P<0.05).CONCLUSION There is a correlation between IΔHb and EBL in PD,so we can assess the patients’intraoperative blood loss by theΔHb method.ASA classification IV,body mass index>24 kg/m²,and preoperative total bilirubin>200μmol/L increased perioperative bleeding risk.
基金The part of the project "Development of Korea Operational Oceanographic System(KOOS),Phase 2",funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries,Koreathe part of the project entitled "Cooperative Project on Korea-China Bilateral Committee on Ocean Science",funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries,Korea and China-Korea Joint Research Ocean Research Center
文摘Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of influence is very useful and important for the effective establishment of a reduction plan. In general, the information is supported by a red-tide（a.k.a algal bloom） model. The performance of the model is highly dependent on the accuracy of parameters, which are the coefficients of functions approximating the biological growth and loss patterns of the C. polykrikoides. These parameters have been estimated using the bioassay data composed of growth-limiting factor and net growth rate value pairs. In the case of the C. polykrikoides, the parameters are different from each other in accordance with the used data because the bioassay data are sufficient compared to the other algal species. The parameters estimated by one specific dataset can be viewed as locally-optimized because they are adjusted only by that dataset. In cases where the other one data set is used, the estimation error might be considerable. In this study, the parameters are estimated by all available data sets without the use of only one specific data set and thus can be considered globally optimized. The cost function for the optimization is defined as the integrated mean squared estimation error, i.e., the difference between the values of the experimental and estimated rates. Based on quantitative error analysis, the root-mean squared errors of the global parameters show smaller values, approximately 25%–50%, than the values of the local parameters. In addition, bias is removed completely in the case of the globally estimated parameters. The parameter sets can be used as the reference default values of a red-tide model because they are optimal and representative. However, additional tuning of the parameters using the in-situ monitoring data is highly required.As opposed to the bioassay data, it is necessary because the bioassay data have limitations in terms of the in-situ coastal conditions.
基金co-funded by the University of Canterbury,Natural Hazards Platform (NHP)the Ministry of Business,Innovation and Employment (MBIE),New Zealand
文摘This paper summarizes the research on non-structural elements and building contents being conducted at University of Canterbury in New Zealand. Since the 2010-2011 series of Canterbury earthquakes, in which damage to non-structural components and contents contributed heavily to downtime and overall financial loss, attention to seismic performance and design of non-structural components and contents in buildings has increased exponentially in NZ. This has resulted in an increased allocation of resources to research leading to development of more resilient non-structural systems in buildings that would incur substantially less damage and cause little downtime during earthquakes. In the last few years, NZ researchers have made important developments in understanding and improving the seismic performance of secondary building elements such as partitions, facades, ceilings and contents.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.31070400)the National Basic Research Program of China (No.2010CB833501-01)+1 种基金the Innovation Project of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS (Grant No.201003001)the Max Planck Society (Germany)
文摘Ozone（O3） concentration and flux（Fo） were measured using the eddy covariance technique over a wheat field in the Northwest-Shandong Plain of China. The O3-induced wheat yield loss was estimated by utilizing O3exposure-response models. The results showed that：（1） During the growing season（7 March to 7 June, 2012）, the minimum（16.1 ppb V） and maximum（53.3 ppb V）mean O3 concentrations occurred at approximately 6：30 and 16：00, respectively. The mean and maximum of all measured O3 concentrations were 31.3 and 128.4 ppb V, respectively. The variation of O3 concentration was mainly affected by solar radiation and temperature.（2） The mean diurnal variation of deposition velocity（V d） can be divided into four phases, and the maximum occurred at noon（12：00）. Averaged V d during daytime（6：00–18：00） and nighttime（18：00–6：00） were 0.42 and 0.14 cm/sec, respectively. The maximum of measured V d was about1.5 cm/sec. The magnitude of V d was influenced by the wheat growing stage, and its variation was significantly correlated with both global radiation and friction velocity.（3） The maximum mean F o appeared at 14：00, and the maximum measured F o was-33.5 nmol/（m^2·sec）. Averaged F o during daytime and nighttime were-6.9 and-1.5 nmol/（m^2·sec）, respectively.（4） Using O3 exposure-response functions obtained from the USA, Europe, and China, the O3-induced wheat yield reduction in the district was estimated as 12.9% on average（5.5%–23.3%）. Large uncertainties were related to the statistical methods and environmental conditions involved in deriving the exposure-response functions.
文摘This paper proposes a risk analysis framework for substation structures based on reliability methods.Even though several risk assessment approaches have been developed for buildings,detailed risk analysis procedures for infrastructure components have been lacking in prior studies.The proposed framework is showcased by its application to a system of interconnected structures at a power substation in Tehran.Finite element models of structures are developed and validated in accordance with previous experiments.The uncertainties in the material,mass,and geometric properties of structures are described by random variables that are input to the finite element model.An artificial ground motion model is employed to comprehensively consider uncertainty in ground motion.Monte Carlo sampling is subsequently conducted on the library of probabilistic models.The analysis resulted in the loss distribution in the life cycle of structures.Additionally,the loss associated with six earthquake scenarios having specific magnitudes and return periods is computed.The application provides insight into the most vulnerable equipment in the considered system.Furthermore,introduced risk measures can guide stakeholders to make risk-based decisions to optimize design or prioritize a retrofit of infrastructure components under conditions of uncertainty.
基金URBSIS:Assessing Vulnerability and Managing Earthquake Risk at Urban Scale(PTDC/ECM-URB/2564/2012)
文摘The buildings＇ capacity to maintain minimum structural safety levels during natural disasters, such as earthquakes, is recognisably one of the aspects that most influence urban resilience. Moreover, the public investment in risk mitigation strategies is fimdamental, not only to promote social and urban and resilience, but also to limit consequent material, human and environmental losses. Despite the growing awareness of this issue, there is still a vast number of traditional masonry buildings spread throughout many European old city centres that lacks of adequate seismic resistance, requiring therefore urgent retrofitting interventions in order to both reduce their seismic vulnerability and to cope with the increased seismic requirements of recent code standards. Thus, this paper aims at contributing to mitigate the social and economic impacts of earthquake damage scenarios through the development of vulnerability-based comparative analysis of some of the most popularretrofitting techniques applied after the 1998 Azores earthquake. The influence of each technique individually and globally studied resorting to a seismic vulnerability index methodology integrated into a GIS tool and damage and loss scenarios are constructed and critically discussed. Finally, the economic balance resulting from the implementation of that techniques are also examined.
基金supported by the Scientific Research Fund of the Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration(Grant No.2021B09)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51978634)。
文摘Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts.The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly incorporating the uncertainty and spatial correlation of the loss.This study proposed a new approach for rapidly estimating post-earthquake building loss with reasonable accuracy.The proposed method interpolates ground motion based on the observed ground motion using the Ground Motion Prediction Equation(GMPE)as the weight.It samples the building seismic loss quantile considering the spatial loss correlation that is expressed by Gaussian copula,and kriging is applied to reduce the dimension of direct sampling for estimation speed.The proposed approach was validated using three historical earthquake events in Japan with actual loss reports,and was then applied to predict the building loss amount for the March 2022 Fukushima Mw7.3 earthquake.The proposed method has high potential in future emergency efforts such as search,rescue,and evacuation planning.
文摘During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing ＂Insur Tech＂ tools to address the much needed ＂Insurance for the Masses＂, especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists.This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing financial risk due to natural catastrophes. Historical losses and the share of those losses covered by insurance will be presented. How such risk sharing can help the nation share the burden of losses between tax paying public, the ＂at risk＂ property owners, the insurers and the reinsurers will be discussed. The paper will summarize the tools that are used by the insurance and reinsurance companies for estimating their future losses due to catastrophic natural events. The paper will also show how the results of loss estimation technologies developed by engineers are communicated to the business flow of insurance/reinsurance companies. Finally, to make it possible to grow ＂Insurance for the Masses - IFM＂, the role played by parametric insurance products and Insur Tech tools will be discussed.
基金funding from the Clean Sky 2 Joint Undertaking under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme(No 807081)。
文摘This study uses the Neural Network(NN)technique to optimize design of surfacemounted Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors(PMSMs)for More-Electric Aircraft(MEA)applications.The key role of NN is to provide dedicated correction factors for the analytical PMSM mass and loss estimation within the entire design space.Based on that,a globally optimal design can be quickly obtained.Matching the analytical estimation with Finite-Element Analysis(FEA)is the main research target of training the NN.Conventional analytical formulae serve as the basis of this study,but they are prone to loss accuracy(especially for a large design space)due to their assumptions and simplifications.With the help of the trained NNs,the analytical motor model can give an estimation as accurate as the FEA but with super less time during the optimization process.The Average Correction Factor(ACF)approach is regarded as the comparison method to demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed NN model.Furthermore,a NN aided three-stage-sevenstep optimization methodology is proposed.Finally,a Pole-10-Slot-12 PMSM case study is given to demonstrate the feasibility and gain of the NN aided multi-objective optimization approach.In this case,the NN aided analytical model can generate one motor design in 0.04 s while it takes more than 1 min for the used FEA model.
基金Chinese National Natural Science Foundation with the grant No.59895410the China Basic Research and Development Project:the Mechanism and Prediction of the Strong Earthquake of the Continental under the Grant No.95130603
文摘The seismic design criterion adopted in the existing seismic design codes is reviewed. It is pointed out that the presently used seismic design criterion is not satisfied with the requirements of nowadays social and economic development. A new performance-based seismic design criterion that is composed of three components is presented in this paper. It can not only effectively control the economic losses and casualty, but also ensure the building's function in proper operation during earthquakes. The three components are: classification of seismic design for buildings, determination of seismic design intensity and/or seismic design ground motion for controlling seismic economic losses and casualties, and determination of the importance factors in terms of service periods of buildings. For controlling the seismic human losses, the idea of socially acceptable casualty level is presented and the 'Optimal Economic Decision Model' and 'Optimal Safe Decision Model' are established. Finally, a new method is recommended for calculating the importance factors of structures by adjusting structures service period on the base of more important structure with longer service period than the conventional ones. Therefore, the more important structure with longer service periods will be designed for higher seismic loads, in case the exceedance probability of seismic hazard in different service period is same.
