This article presents a summary of our studies of Holocene moraines and glaciers of the Tien-Shan, Pamir, and Himalaya moun- mills with the purpose of providing pattern regularity of the Holocene glaciation decomposit...This article presents a summary of our studies of Holocene moraines and glaciers of the Tien-Shan, Pamir, and Himalaya moun- mills with the purpose of providing pattern regularity of the Holocene glaciation decomposition. We developed a method for ob- taining reliable radiocarbon dating of moraines with the use of autochthonous organic matter dispersed in fine-grained morainic material, as well there were shown new possibilities of isotope-oxygen and isotope-uranium analysis for the Holocene glaciations dynamics. We found that Holocene glaciations disintegrate stadiaUy according to the decaying principle, and seven main stages may be distinguished. We achieved the absolute dating of the first three stages, identifying these periods as 8,000, 5,000, and 3,400 years ago. The application of the above-mentioned isotope methods of the Holocene glaciations and moraines study will allow re- searchers to improve the offered model of the Holocene glaciations disintegration; it will be great contribution to salvation of the problem of long-term climatic and glaciations forecast.展开更多
In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investm...In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.展开更多
In this study,we address a demanding time series forecasting problem that deals simultaneously with the following:(1)intermittent time series,(2)multi-step ahead forecasting,(3)time series with multiple seasonal perio...In this study,we address a demanding time series forecasting problem that deals simultaneously with the following:(1)intermittent time series,(2)multi-step ahead forecasting,(3)time series with multiple seasonal periods,and(4)performance measures for model selection across multiple time series.Current literature deals with these types of problems separately,and no study has dealt with all these characteristics simultaneously.To fill this knowledge gap,we begin by reviewing all the necessary existing literature relevant to this case study with the goal of proposing a framework capable of achieving adequate forecast accuracy for such a complex problem.Several adaptions and innovations have been conducted,which are marked as contributions to the literature.Specifically,we proposed a weighted average forecast combination of many cutting-edge models based on their out-of-sample performance.To gather strong evidence that our ensemble model works in practice,we undertook a large-scale study across 98 time series,rigorously assessed with unbiased performance measures,where a week seasonal naïve was set as a benchmark.The results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble model achieves eyecatching forecasting accuracy.展开更多
Long-termpetroleum production forecasting is essential for the effective development andmanagement of oilfields.Due to its ability to extract complex patterns,deep learning has gained popularity for production forecas...Long-termpetroleum production forecasting is essential for the effective development andmanagement of oilfields.Due to its ability to extract complex patterns,deep learning has gained popularity for production forecasting.However,existing deep learning models frequently overlook the selective utilization of information from other production wells,resulting in suboptimal performance in long-term production forecasting across multiple wells.To achieve accurate long-term petroleum production forecast,we propose a spatial-geological perception graph convolutional neural network(SGP-GCN)that accounts for the temporal,spatial,and geological dependencies inherent in petroleum production.Utilizing the attention mechanism,the SGP-GCN effectively captures intricate correlations within production and geological data,forming the representations of each production well.Based on the spatial distances and geological feature correlations,we construct a spatial-geological matrix as the weight matrix to enable differential utilization of information from other wells.Additionally,a matrix sparsification algorithm based on production clustering(SPC)is also proposed to optimize the weight distribution within the spatial-geological matrix,thereby enhancing long-term forecasting performance.Empirical evaluations have shown that the SGP-GCN outperforms existing deep learning models,such as CNN-LSTM-SA,in long-term petroleum production forecasting.This demonstrates the potential of the SGP-GCN as a valuable tool for long-term petroleum production forecasting across multiple wells.展开更多
This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administratio...This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.展开更多
Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning ...Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.展开更多
AIM:To investigate the long-term outcomes in acute primary angle closure(APAC)patients treated with lens extraction(LE)surgery and to identify risk factors for glaucomatous optic neuropathy(GON).METHODS:In this longit...AIM:To investigate the long-term outcomes in acute primary angle closure(APAC)patients treated with lens extraction(LE)surgery and to identify risk factors for glaucomatous optic neuropathy(GON).METHODS:In this longitudinal observational study,detailed medical histories of APAC patients and comprehensive ophthalmic examinations at final followup were collected.Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of blindness.Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted to determine risk factors associated with visual outcomes.RESULTS:This study included 39 affected eyes of 31 subjects(26 females)with an average age of 74.1±8.0y.At 6.7±4.2y after APAC attack,2(5.7%)eyes had bestcorrected visual acuity(VA)worse than 3/60.Advanced glaucomatous visual field loss was observed in 15(39.5%)affected eyes and 5(25.0%)fellow eyes.Nine affected eyes(23.7%)had GON,and 11(28.9%)were blind.Six(15.4%)affected eyes and 2(9.1%)fellow eyes had suspicious progression.A significantly higher blindness rate in factory workers compared to office workers.Logistic regression identified that worse VA at attack(OR 10.568,95%CI 1.288-86.695;P=0.028)and worse early postoperative VA(OR 13.214,95%CI 1.157-150.881;P=0.038)were risk factors for blindness.Multivariate regression showed that longer duration of elevated intraocular pressure(P=0.004)and worse early postoperative VA(P=0.009)were associated with worse visual outcomes.CONCLUSION:Despite LE surgery,some APAC patients experience continued visual function deterioration.Lifelong monitoring is necessary.Target pressure and progression rates should be re-evaluated during follow-up.展开更多
Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep...Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.展开更多
Road traffic flow forecasting provides critical information for the operational management of road mobility challenges, and models are used to generate the forecast. This paper uses a random process to present a novel...Road traffic flow forecasting provides critical information for the operational management of road mobility challenges, and models are used to generate the forecast. This paper uses a random process to present a novel traffic modelling framework for aggregate traffic on urban roads. The main idea is that road traffic flow is random, even for the recurrent flow, such as rush hour traffic, which is predisposed to congestion. Therefore, the structure of the aggregate traffic flow model for urban roads should correlate well with the essential variables of the observed random dynamics of the traffic flow phenomena. The novelty of this paper is the developed framework, based on the Poisson process, the kinematics of urban road traffic flow, and the intermediate modelling approach, which were combined to formulate the model. Empirical data from an urban road in Ghana was used to explore the model’s fidelity. The results show that the distribution from the model correlates well with that of the empirical traffic, providing a strong validation of the new framework and instilling confidence in its potential for significantly improved forecasts and, hence, a more hopeful outlook for real-world traffic management.展开更多
The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in t...The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in this paper. The R-value method, developed by Xu (1989), is further developed here, and can be applied to more complicated cases. Probability gains in spatial and/or temporal domains and the R-values for different forecast methods are estimated in North China. The synthesized probability gain is then estimated as an example.展开更多
Load forecasting is vitally important for electric industry in the deregulated economy. This paper aims to face the power crisis and to achieve energy security in Jordan. Our participation is localized in the southern...Load forecasting is vitally important for electric industry in the deregulated economy. This paper aims to face the power crisis and to achieve energy security in Jordan. Our participation is localized in the southern parts of Jordan including, Ma’an, Karak and Aqaba. The available statistical data about the load of southern part of Jordan are supplied by electricity Distribution Company. Mathematical and statistical methods attempted to forecast future demand by determining trends of past results and use the trends to extrapolate the curve demand in the future.展开更多
The main purpose of this research paper is to investigate the long-term effects of the proposed demandside program,and its impact on annual peak load forecasting important for strategic network planning.The program co...The main purpose of this research paper is to investigate the long-term effects of the proposed demandside program,and its impact on annual peak load forecasting important for strategic network planning.The program comprises a particular set of demand-side measures aimed at reducing the annual peak load.The paper also presents the program simulations for the case study of the Electricity Distribution Company of Belgrade(EDB).According to the methodology used,the first step is to determine the available controllable load of the distribution utility/area under consideration.The controllable load is presumed constant over the analyzed time horizon,and the smart grid(SG)infrastructure available.The saturation of positive effects during intense program application is also taken into account.Technical and economic input data are taken from the real projects.The conducted calculations indicate that demand-side programs can bring about the same results as the energy storage in the grids with a strong impact of distributed generation from variable renewable sources(V-RES).In conclusion,the proposed demand-side program is a good alternative to building new power facilities,which can postpone investment costs for a considerable period of time.展开更多
In terms of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) established is a long-term prediction model for June-August flood/drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe Basins and a regression forecasting expression is formulated with the a...In terms of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) established is a long-term prediction model for June-August flood/drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe Basins and a regression forecasting expression is formulated with the aid of the same factors and sample size for comparison. Results show that the ANN is superior in predictions and fittings due to its higher self-adaptive learning recognition and nonlinear mapping especially in the years of severe flood and drought. This shows great promise in using ANN in the research of flood/drought prediction on a long-range basis.展开更多
An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited i...An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.展开更多
One popular strategy to reduce the enormous number of illnesses and deaths from a seasonal influenza pandemic is to obtain the influenza vaccine on time.Usually,vaccine production preparation must be done at least six...One popular strategy to reduce the enormous number of illnesses and deaths from a seasonal influenza pandemic is to obtain the influenza vaccine on time.Usually,vaccine production preparation must be done at least six months in advance,and accurate long-term influenza forecasting is essential for this.Although diverse machine learning models have been proposed for influenza forecasting,they focus on short-term forecasting,and their performance is too dependent on input variables.For a country’s longterm influenza forecasting,typical surveillance data are known to be more effective than diverse external data on the Internet.We propose a two-stage data selection scheme for worldwide surveillance data to construct a longterm forecasting model for influenza in the target country.In the first stage,using a simple forecasting model based on the country’s surveillance data,we measured the change in performance by adding surveillance data from other countries,shifted by up to 52 weeks.In the second stage,for each set of surveillance data sorted by accuracy,we incrementally added data as input if the data have a positive effect on the performance of the forecasting model in the first stage.Using the selected surveillance data,we trained a new longterm forecasting model for influenza and perform influenza forecasting for the target country.We conducted extensive experiments using six machine learning models for the three target countries to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.We report some of the results.展开更多
Electricity demand is also known as load in electric power system.This article presents a Long-Term Load Forecasting(LTLF)approach for Malaysia.An Artificial Neural Network(ANN)of 5-layer Multi-Layered Perceptron(MLP)...Electricity demand is also known as load in electric power system.This article presents a Long-Term Load Forecasting(LTLF)approach for Malaysia.An Artificial Neural Network(ANN)of 5-layer Multi-Layered Perceptron(MLP)structure has been designed and tested for this purpose.Uncertainties of input variables and ANN model were introduced to obtain the prediction for years 2022 to 2030.Pearson correlation was used to examine the input variables for model construction.The analysis indicates that Primary Energy Supply(PES),population,Gross Domestic Product(GDP)and temperature are strongly correlated.The forecast results by the proposed method(henceforth referred to as UQ-SNN)were compared with the results obtained by a conventional Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model.The R^(2)scores for UQ-SNN and SARIMA are 0.9994 and 0.9787,respectively,indicating that UQ-SNN is more accurate in capturing the non-linearity and the underlying relationships between the input and output variables.The proposed method can be easily extended to include other input variables to increase the model complexity and is suitable for LTLF.With the available input data,UQ-SNN predicts Malaysia will consume 207.22 TWh of electricity,with standard deviation(SD)of 6.10 TWh by 2030.展开更多
In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access ...In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.展开更多
Forecasting environmental parameters in the distant future requires complex modelling and large computational resources.Due to the sensitivity and complexity of forecast models,long-term parameter forecasts(e.g.up to ...Forecasting environmental parameters in the distant future requires complex modelling and large computational resources.Due to the sensitivity and complexity of forecast models,long-term parameter forecasts(e.g.up to 2100)are uncommon and only produced by a few organisations,in heterogeneous formats and based on different assumptions of greenhouse gases emissions.However,data mining techniques can be used to coerce the data to a uniform time and spatial representation,which facilitates their use in many applications.In this paper,streams of big data coming from AquaMaps and NASA collections of 126 long-term forecasts of nine types of environmental parameters are processed through a cloud computing platform in order to(i)standardise and harmonise the data representations,(ii)produce intermediate scenarios and new informative parameters,and(iii)align all sets on a common time and spatial resolution.Time series crosscorrelation applied to these aligned datasets reveals patterns of climate change and similarities between parameter trends in 10 marine areas.Our results highlight that(i)the Mediterranean Sea may have a standalone‘response’to climate change with respect to other areas,(ii)the Poles are most representative of global forecasted change,and(iii)the trends are generally alarming for most oceans.展开更多
The load growth is the most important uncertainties in power system planning process. The applications of the classical long-term load forecasting methods particularly applied to utilities in transition economy are in...The load growth is the most important uncertainties in power system planning process. The applications of the classical long-term load forecasting methods particularly applied to utilities in transition economy are insufficient and may produce incorrect decisions in power system planning process. This paper discusses using the method of analytic hierarchy process to calculate the probability distribution of load growth obtained previously by standard load forecasting methods.展开更多
Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. ...Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. The objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the relationship between wild Sea buckthorn (SB) price and Supply, Demand, while some other factors of crude oil price and exchange rate by using simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price system equation and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM);2) to forecast the short-term and long-term SB price;3) to compare and evaluate the price forecasting models. Firstly, the data was analyzed by Ferris and Engle-Granger’s procedure;secondly, both price forecasting methodologies were tested by Pindyck-Rubinfeld and Makridakis’s procedure. The result shows that the VECM model is more efficient using yearly data;a short-term price forecast decreases, and a long-term price forecast is predicted to increase the Mongolian Sea buckthorn market.展开更多
基金the program of the Institute of Water Problems and Hydro Power of National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic
文摘This article presents a summary of our studies of Holocene moraines and glaciers of the Tien-Shan, Pamir, and Himalaya moun- mills with the purpose of providing pattern regularity of the Holocene glaciation decomposition. We developed a method for ob- taining reliable radiocarbon dating of moraines with the use of autochthonous organic matter dispersed in fine-grained morainic material, as well there were shown new possibilities of isotope-oxygen and isotope-uranium analysis for the Holocene glaciations dynamics. We found that Holocene glaciations disintegrate stadiaUy according to the decaying principle, and seven main stages may be distinguished. We achieved the absolute dating of the first three stages, identifying these periods as 8,000, 5,000, and 3,400 years ago. The application of the above-mentioned isotope methods of the Holocene glaciations and moraines study will allow re- searchers to improve the offered model of the Holocene glaciations disintegration; it will be great contribution to salvation of the problem of long-term climatic and glaciations forecast.
文摘In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.
基金supported by COMPETE:POCI-01-0247-FEDER-039719 and FCT-Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the Project Scope:UIDB/00127/2020.
文摘In this study,we address a demanding time series forecasting problem that deals simultaneously with the following:(1)intermittent time series,(2)multi-step ahead forecasting,(3)time series with multiple seasonal periods,and(4)performance measures for model selection across multiple time series.Current literature deals with these types of problems separately,and no study has dealt with all these characteristics simultaneously.To fill this knowledge gap,we begin by reviewing all the necessary existing literature relevant to this case study with the goal of proposing a framework capable of achieving adequate forecast accuracy for such a complex problem.Several adaptions and innovations have been conducted,which are marked as contributions to the literature.Specifically,we proposed a weighted average forecast combination of many cutting-edge models based on their out-of-sample performance.To gather strong evidence that our ensemble model works in practice,we undertook a large-scale study across 98 time series,rigorously assessed with unbiased performance measures,where a week seasonal naïve was set as a benchmark.The results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble model achieves eyecatching forecasting accuracy.
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China,grant number 62071491.
文摘Long-termpetroleum production forecasting is essential for the effective development andmanagement of oilfields.Due to its ability to extract complex patterns,deep learning has gained popularity for production forecasting.However,existing deep learning models frequently overlook the selective utilization of information from other production wells,resulting in suboptimal performance in long-term production forecasting across multiple wells.To achieve accurate long-term petroleum production forecast,we propose a spatial-geological perception graph convolutional neural network(SGP-GCN)that accounts for the temporal,spatial,and geological dependencies inherent in petroleum production.Utilizing the attention mechanism,the SGP-GCN effectively captures intricate correlations within production and geological data,forming the representations of each production well.Based on the spatial distances and geological feature correlations,we construct a spatial-geological matrix as the weight matrix to enable differential utilization of information from other wells.Additionally,a matrix sparsification algorithm based on production clustering(SPC)is also proposed to optimize the weight distribution within the spatial-geological matrix,thereby enhancing long-term forecasting performance.Empirical evaluations have shown that the SGP-GCN outperforms existing deep learning models,such as CNN-LSTM-SA,in long-term petroleum production forecasting.This demonstrates the potential of the SGP-GCN as a valuable tool for long-term petroleum production forecasting across multiple wells.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFC3008004]。
文摘This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.
文摘Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.
文摘AIM:To investigate the long-term outcomes in acute primary angle closure(APAC)patients treated with lens extraction(LE)surgery and to identify risk factors for glaucomatous optic neuropathy(GON).METHODS:In this longitudinal observational study,detailed medical histories of APAC patients and comprehensive ophthalmic examinations at final followup were collected.Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of blindness.Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted to determine risk factors associated with visual outcomes.RESULTS:This study included 39 affected eyes of 31 subjects(26 females)with an average age of 74.1±8.0y.At 6.7±4.2y after APAC attack,2(5.7%)eyes had bestcorrected visual acuity(VA)worse than 3/60.Advanced glaucomatous visual field loss was observed in 15(39.5%)affected eyes and 5(25.0%)fellow eyes.Nine affected eyes(23.7%)had GON,and 11(28.9%)were blind.Six(15.4%)affected eyes and 2(9.1%)fellow eyes had suspicious progression.A significantly higher blindness rate in factory workers compared to office workers.Logistic regression identified that worse VA at attack(OR 10.568,95%CI 1.288-86.695;P=0.028)and worse early postoperative VA(OR 13.214,95%CI 1.157-150.881;P=0.038)were risk factors for blindness.Multivariate regression showed that longer duration of elevated intraocular pressure(P=0.004)and worse early postoperative VA(P=0.009)were associated with worse visual outcomes.CONCLUSION:Despite LE surgery,some APAC patients experience continued visual function deterioration.Lifelong monitoring is necessary.Target pressure and progression rates should be re-evaluated during follow-up.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 62376217]the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST[grant number 2023QNRC001]the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement[grant number 24NLTSZ003]。
文摘Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.
文摘Road traffic flow forecasting provides critical information for the operational management of road mobility challenges, and models are used to generate the forecast. This paper uses a random process to present a novel traffic modelling framework for aggregate traffic on urban roads. The main idea is that road traffic flow is random, even for the recurrent flow, such as rush hour traffic, which is predisposed to congestion. Therefore, the structure of the aggregate traffic flow model for urban roads should correlate well with the essential variables of the observed random dynamics of the traffic flow phenomena. The novelty of this paper is the developed framework, based on the Poisson process, the kinematics of urban road traffic flow, and the intermediate modelling approach, which were combined to formulate the model. Empirical data from an urban road in Ghana was used to explore the model’s fidelity. The results show that the distribution from the model correlates well with that of the empirical traffic, providing a strong validation of the new framework and instilling confidence in its potential for significantly improved forecasts and, hence, a more hopeful outlook for real-world traffic management.
文摘The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in this paper. The R-value method, developed by Xu (1989), is further developed here, and can be applied to more complicated cases. Probability gains in spatial and/or temporal domains and the R-values for different forecast methods are estimated in North China. The synthesized probability gain is then estimated as an example.
文摘Load forecasting is vitally important for electric industry in the deregulated economy. This paper aims to face the power crisis and to achieve energy security in Jordan. Our participation is localized in the southern parts of Jordan including, Ma’an, Karak and Aqaba. The available statistical data about the load of southern part of Jordan are supplied by electricity Distribution Company. Mathematical and statistical methods attempted to forecast future demand by determining trends of past results and use the trends to extrapolate the curve demand in the future.
基金supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia,being the part of the research project ‘‘Smart Energy Networks’’ (No.Ⅲ 42009/2011)
文摘The main purpose of this research paper is to investigate the long-term effects of the proposed demandside program,and its impact on annual peak load forecasting important for strategic network planning.The program comprises a particular set of demand-side measures aimed at reducing the annual peak load.The paper also presents the program simulations for the case study of the Electricity Distribution Company of Belgrade(EDB).According to the methodology used,the first step is to determine the available controllable load of the distribution utility/area under consideration.The controllable load is presumed constant over the analyzed time horizon,and the smart grid(SG)infrastructure available.The saturation of positive effects during intense program application is also taken into account.Technical and economic input data are taken from the real projects.The conducted calculations indicate that demand-side programs can bring about the same results as the energy storage in the grids with a strong impact of distributed generation from variable renewable sources(V-RES).In conclusion,the proposed demand-side program is a good alternative to building new power facilities,which can postpone investment costs for a considerable period of time.
文摘In terms of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) established is a long-term prediction model for June-August flood/drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe Basins and a regression forecasting expression is formulated with the aid of the same factors and sample size for comparison. Results show that the ANN is superior in predictions and fittings due to its higher self-adaptive learning recognition and nonlinear mapping especially in the years of severe flood and drought. This shows great promise in using ANN in the research of flood/drought prediction on a long-range basis.
基金Project(51606225) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2016JJ2144) supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(502221703) supported by Graduate Independent Explorative Innovation Foundation of Central South University,China
文摘An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.
基金This research was supported by a government-wide R&D fund project for infectious disease research(GFID),Republic of Korea(Grant Number:HG19C0682).
文摘One popular strategy to reduce the enormous number of illnesses and deaths from a seasonal influenza pandemic is to obtain the influenza vaccine on time.Usually,vaccine production preparation must be done at least six months in advance,and accurate long-term influenza forecasting is essential for this.Although diverse machine learning models have been proposed for influenza forecasting,they focus on short-term forecasting,and their performance is too dependent on input variables.For a country’s longterm influenza forecasting,typical surveillance data are known to be more effective than diverse external data on the Internet.We propose a two-stage data selection scheme for worldwide surveillance data to construct a longterm forecasting model for influenza in the target country.In the first stage,using a simple forecasting model based on the country’s surveillance data,we measured the change in performance by adding surveillance data from other countries,shifted by up to 52 weeks.In the second stage,for each set of surveillance data sorted by accuracy,we incrementally added data as input if the data have a positive effect on the performance of the forecasting model in the first stage.Using the selected surveillance data,we trained a new longterm forecasting model for influenza and perform influenza forecasting for the target country.We conducted extensive experiments using six machine learning models for the three target countries to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.We report some of the results.
基金the Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia,under the Fundamental Research Grant Scheme(FRGS Grant No.FRGS/1/2016/TK07/SEGI/02/1).
文摘Electricity demand is also known as load in electric power system.This article presents a Long-Term Load Forecasting(LTLF)approach for Malaysia.An Artificial Neural Network(ANN)of 5-layer Multi-Layered Perceptron(MLP)structure has been designed and tested for this purpose.Uncertainties of input variables and ANN model were introduced to obtain the prediction for years 2022 to 2030.Pearson correlation was used to examine the input variables for model construction.The analysis indicates that Primary Energy Supply(PES),population,Gross Domestic Product(GDP)and temperature are strongly correlated.The forecast results by the proposed method(henceforth referred to as UQ-SNN)were compared with the results obtained by a conventional Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model.The R^(2)scores for UQ-SNN and SARIMA are 0.9994 and 0.9787,respectively,indicating that UQ-SNN is more accurate in capturing the non-linearity and the underlying relationships between the input and output variables.The proposed method can be easily extended to include other input variables to increase the model complexity and is suitable for LTLF.With the available input data,UQ-SNN predicts Malaysia will consume 207.22 TWh of electricity,with standard deviation(SD)of 6.10 TWh by 2030.
文摘In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.
基金This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the BlueBRIDGE project[grant agreement no 675680].
文摘Forecasting environmental parameters in the distant future requires complex modelling and large computational resources.Due to the sensitivity and complexity of forecast models,long-term parameter forecasts(e.g.up to 2100)are uncommon and only produced by a few organisations,in heterogeneous formats and based on different assumptions of greenhouse gases emissions.However,data mining techniques can be used to coerce the data to a uniform time and spatial representation,which facilitates their use in many applications.In this paper,streams of big data coming from AquaMaps and NASA collections of 126 long-term forecasts of nine types of environmental parameters are processed through a cloud computing platform in order to(i)standardise and harmonise the data representations,(ii)produce intermediate scenarios and new informative parameters,and(iii)align all sets on a common time and spatial resolution.Time series crosscorrelation applied to these aligned datasets reveals patterns of climate change and similarities between parameter trends in 10 marine areas.Our results highlight that(i)the Mediterranean Sea may have a standalone‘response’to climate change with respect to other areas,(ii)the Poles are most representative of global forecasted change,and(iii)the trends are generally alarming for most oceans.
文摘The load growth is the most important uncertainties in power system planning process. The applications of the classical long-term load forecasting methods particularly applied to utilities in transition economy are insufficient and may produce incorrect decisions in power system planning process. This paper discusses using the method of analytic hierarchy process to calculate the probability distribution of load growth obtained previously by standard load forecasting methods.
文摘Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. The objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the relationship between wild Sea buckthorn (SB) price and Supply, Demand, while some other factors of crude oil price and exchange rate by using simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price system equation and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM);2) to forecast the short-term and long-term SB price;3) to compare and evaluate the price forecasting models. Firstly, the data was analyzed by Ferris and Engle-Granger’s procedure;secondly, both price forecasting methodologies were tested by Pindyck-Rubinfeld and Makridakis’s procedure. The result shows that the VECM model is more efficient using yearly data;a short-term price forecast decreases, and a long-term price forecast is predicted to increase the Mongolian Sea buckthorn market.
