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Building Long-Term Care Insurance System in China 被引量:1
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作者 Juan Yang Li Hua Chen 《International English Education Research》 2015年第6期77-79,共3页
The objective is to explore the foundation of the elderly long-term care insurance system in China, which is to face the problem resulted from aging of the population. Adopting the contrastive analysis to introduce br... The objective is to explore the foundation of the elderly long-term care insurance system in China, which is to face the problem resulted from aging of the population. Adopting the contrastive analysis to introduce briefly the long-term care insurance system in German, Japan and America for our learning. Therefore, China's long-term care insurance system could not totally indiscriminately imitate the mandatory long-term care insurance system in German and Japan, it also could not copy the business model of nursing insurance system in America. The conclusion is that long-term care insurance system in China should use the experience of developed countries based on the basic national conditions, doing some relative works, such as establishing policies and regulations, strengthening personnel training, and improving the market specification. 展开更多
关键词 Aging of population long-term care insurance FAMILY Medical expenses.
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Research on the Establishment of a Long-Term Care System for the Elderly with Alzheimer’s Disease Under the Background of Long-Term Care Insurance: A Literature Review 被引量:1
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作者 Wei Wang Faridah Mohd Said 《Journal of Clinical and Nursing Research》 2024年第5期348-355,共8页
With the aging of the country’s population structure,the problem of social pensions is becoming more and more serious.As for the issue of social pension,the elderly with Alzheimer’s disease are a special group,and t... With the aging of the country’s population structure,the problem of social pensions is becoming more and more serious.As for the issue of social pension,the elderly with Alzheimer’s disease are a special group,and the issue of care services for these elderly has attracted widespread attention from society.However,judging from the current level of social security provided to the elderly with dementia in the country,there is a serious imbalance between supply and demand.Therefore,this problem needs to be solved urgently and is of great significance for further improving the country’s social pension security system.Routine care is limited to hospitals and mainly focuses on the patient’s condition.Patients fail to receive comprehensive care services and the effect is not ideal.Therefore,in order to improve patients’cognitive function and quality of life,and learn from international experience,a“community-institution-home”three-dimensional linkage care model based on long-term care insurance can be established.The application of this model can effectively solve and further improve the country’s elderly care and social security system. 展开更多
关键词 long-term care insurance ELDERLY Alzheimer’s disease long-term care system
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Research on the institutional design of the long-term care insurance in Shanghai
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作者 Wei Wang Youchun Tang Qian Liu 《International English Education Research》 2015年第3期29-30,共2页
Shanghai went into the ranks of the aging society in 1979, as the first area which entered into the aging society in China. Along with the arrival of the ageing, the nursing problems of the old man and disabled elderl... Shanghai went into the ranks of the aging society in 1979, as the first area which entered into the aging society in China. Along with the arrival of the ageing, the nursing problems of the old man and disabled elderly become the important factors which affect social development. The establishment of the legal system, System integration to realize resource optimal allocation, Division of multilevel optimization services provide new pattern can make it happen. 展开更多
关键词 long-term care insurance institutional design
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Analysis of the necessity of Shanghai's long-term care insurance
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作者 Yang Jie 《International English Education Research》 2015年第6期68-69,共2页
The aging population of Shanghai is China one of the most serious city, is also one of the cities of the aging problem is prominent. As a result, the city's endowment pressure also with aging and aging aggravate grad... The aging population of Shanghai is China one of the most serious city, is also one of the cities of the aging problem is prominent. As a result, the city's endowment pressure also with aging and aging aggravate gradually increased, especially the old man nursing problems become the main problem in society. Study abroad to establish a long term care insurance comprehensive factors, considering the feasibility of the long-term care insurance in Shanghai, alleviate the pressure of the pension, the construction of a harmonious society. 展开更多
关键词 The necessity long-term care insurance.
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Performance of Rural Municipalities After the 2015 Reformation of Long-Term Care Insurance in Japan
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作者 Yoko Matsuoka Shinji Hattori 《Sociology Study》 2022年第3期88-98,共11页
Worldwide,welfare is trending from a welfare state model to social participation to ensure the sustainability of health care systems.Japan,where the aging rate will reach 40%by 2060,reformed public Long-Term Care Insu... Worldwide,welfare is trending from a welfare state model to social participation to ensure the sustainability of health care systems.Japan,where the aging rate will reach 40%by 2060,reformed public Long-Term Care Insurance(LTCI)on a large scale in 2015 and started the Comprehensive Service project(CS project),which emphasizes the prevention of long-term care through social participation in the community.Through this project,communities work to develop prevention efforts revolving around the community salon/caféand mutual support,including all daily tasks that previously were the purview of family members.Each municipality has an obligation to promote a CS project through new community development initiatives among community members.The purpose of this study is to investigate the CS projects performed by rural municipalities and to explore the important factors for their success.The authors used a case study methodology and constant comprehensive methodology for analyzing interview data to pull out the elements of successful initiatives.The study shows that the following factors influence success:recognition of demographic risk,recognition of the ineffectiveness of LTCI services,developing a passionate philosophy and strategy as a municipality,developing community members’initiative,and having many assets and full participation in the community.These factors imply that community development is a critical part of any successful CS project. 展开更多
关键词 long-term care insurance in Japan community development mutual support PREVENTION asset-based approach
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Study on Pricing of Long-term Care Insurance Considering Capping Line
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作者 WANGXiaolin 《外文科技期刊数据库(文摘版)经济管理》 2022年第6期191-195,共5页
It is a long-term strategic task for China to cope with the aging population and declining birthrate. Therefore, our country has begun to gradually establish our long-term care security system, and the pricing problem... It is a long-term strategic task for China to cope with the aging population and declining birthrate. Therefore, our country has begun to gradually establish our long-term care security system, and the pricing problem of long-term care insurance has gradually attracted the attention of academic circles. The pricing model and nursing demand of long-term care insurance have been repeatedly discussed and studied, and many useful conclusions have been formed. However, in terms of rates, the rates of both commercial long-term care insurance and policy products are on the high side. At present, the price of commercial long-term care insurance is high. Although the price of policy-oriented products is low, the level of protection is also low, which cannot provide sufficient protection. This study explores the introduction of capping line into long-term care insurance to reduce the rate level of long-term care insurance. Using the existing state transition matrix, through empirical research, the pricing of long-term care insurance with capping line is made in order to provide suggestions for the development of long-term care insurance. 展开更多
关键词 long-term care insurance seal the neck line insurance pricing
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Research on the development mode of long-term nursing insurance ——taking Qingdao as an example
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作者 ZHANG Yu 《International English Education Research》 2018年第3期71-73,共3页
With the gradual development of society, scientific and technological progress, aging gradually aggravated, has become a hot topic of society. People to old age, self-care ability than in the past, not only suffer fro... With the gradual development of society, scientific and technological progress, aging gradually aggravated, has become a hot topic of society. People to old age, self-care ability than in the past, not only suffer from disease, life has become difficult, coupled with the large number of empty nest family, the cost of care is also very high, whether it is to receive home care or professional institutions of care have great difficulties. Therefore, the community should be a large number of people with long-term care needs of the appropriate economic compensation, in this context, long-term care insurance is born. As a leading city in Shandong Province, Qingdao has introduced long-term care insurance and achieved good results. This paper analyzes the practical problems faced by Qingdao, that is, the development background of Qingdao long-term nursing insurance model, obtains the deficiency of Qingdao long-term nursing insurance, and then puts forward the corresponding countermeasures, and then ponders how to choose the long-term nursing insurance model of our country's future development. 展开更多
关键词 long-term care insurance Development mode Operational mode
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Influence Factors of Mobility-Related Activities of Daily Living in Chronic Dialysis Patients Needing Long-Term Care: Analysis of Long-Term Care Eligibility Assessment Survey Data
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作者 Utako Shimizu Hagiko Aoki +2 位作者 Masaru Nakamura Haruo Yamanouchi Kohei Akazawa 《Health》 2014年第16期2174-2183,共10页
Background: In the near future in Japan, chronic dialysis patients will likely face a situation where the aging and the lengthening of hemodialysis treatment periods will adversely affect the mobility-related activiti... Background: In the near future in Japan, chronic dialysis patients will likely face a situation where the aging and the lengthening of hemodialysis treatment periods will adversely affect the mobility-related activities of daily living (MR-ADL). The aim of this study was to investigate chronological change in MR-ADL among chronic dialysis patients in need of long-term care and the effect of admission to long-term care facilities on their MR-ADL. Methods: Data were analyzed from a long-term care eligibility assessment survey conducted in late March 2009 of 1000 individuals residing in Niigata City, Japan who were approved to receive long-term care. Then data from those individuals who had undergone the assessment survey ≥4 times over a period of ≥4 years were statistically evaluated. To reveal change in MR-ADL, this study performed a three-way analysis of variance with mean survey scores from assessment categories 2 - 5 containing questions related to MR-ADL as the independent variable and the number of eligibility assessment surveys (within-subjects factor), facility admission, and dialysis therapy (between-subjects factors) as dependent variables. Results: We observed the effect of facility admission in individuals aged >70 years for categories 2 - 5, and observed the effect of the number of assessment surveys taken only in women ≥80 years for categories 2 and 5. Regarding the effect of dialysis therapy, female dialysis patients aged ≥80 years and in need of long-term care scored significantly higher on survey items for transferring, grooming, toileting, eating, and instrumental activities of daily living, all of which are indicators of a moderate decline in ADL. Conclusions: Because dialysis is often initiated in women aged around 80 years, ADL in this group of individuals can be improved by the initiation and proper provision of dialysis. 展开更多
关键词 Chronic DIALYSIS PATIENTS Activities of Daily Living long-term care insurance long-term care insurance Facility
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Community-Based Health Insurance: An Evolutionary Approach to Achieving Universal Coverage in Low-Income Countries
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作者 Hong Wang Nancy Pielemeier 《Journal of Life Sciences》 2012年第3期320-329,共10页
The WHO World Health Assembly, and the most recent WHO World Health Report, have called for all health systems to move toward universal coverage. However, low-income countries have made little progress in this respect... The WHO World Health Assembly, and the most recent WHO World Health Report, have called for all health systems to move toward universal coverage. However, low-income countries have made little progress in this respect. We use existing evidence to describe the evolution of community-based health insurance in low-income countries through the three stages of basic model, enhanced model, and nationwide model. We have concluded that community-based health insurance development is a potential strategy to meet the urgent need for health financing in low-income countries. With careful planning and implementation, it is possible to adopt such evolutionary approach to achieve universal coverage by extending tax-based financing/social insurance characteristics to community-based health insurance schemes. 展开更多
关键词 Universal coverage community-based health insurance health care financing financial risk protection.
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Long-term care policy simulation of disabled elderly
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作者 YAN Yichao 《International English Education Research》 2018年第4期71-73,共3页
With the accelerating process of population aging in our country, the physical function of the elderly will decline, the possibility of suffering from acute and chronic diseases will increase, and the occurrence of di... With the accelerating process of population aging in our country, the physical function of the elderly will decline, the possibility of suffering from acute and chronic diseases will increase, and the occurrence of disability will become more common and normal. The potential demand for elderly care is rapidly increasing. With the growth, the care of the disabled elderly has become increasingly acute. At the same time, due to the intensification of family miniaturization and population migration, the traditional family-based long-term care has been difficult to sustain. How to incorporate long-term care into our social security system as soon as possible has become the focus of the whole society. The thesis through the combination of public policy simulation methods and the research data, the long-term care insurance system implemented at the beginning of 2018 in Shanghai is a policy blueprint. It uses statistical software SPSS, MATLAB, etc. to achieve data collation, analysis and prediction, and at the same time integrates the pilot of the long-term care insurance system. The implementation of policies in cities such as Qingdao and Nantong has been simulated. Finally, on the basis of simulation results, suggestions have been made for the future development of China's long-term care insurance system. 展开更多
关键词 Disability elderly long-term care insurance policy guidelines program adjustment
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养老服务金融与老年家庭消费——关于做好养老金融大文章的思考
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作者 陈林雄 邹新月 钟昌标 《金融经济学研究》 北大核心 2026年第1期131-147,共17页
基于2015年、2017年和2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,从商业保险持有和金融资产配置两个维度,考察老年人参与养老服务金融演化趋势,并据此实证分析养老服务金融对老年家庭消费的影响及其作用机制。结果发现,参与养老服务金融促进老年家庭... 基于2015年、2017年和2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,从商业保险持有和金融资产配置两个维度,考察老年人参与养老服务金融演化趋势,并据此实证分析养老服务金融对老年家庭消费的影响及其作用机制。结果发现,参与养老服务金融促进老年家庭消费水平提升,同时推动老年家庭消费结构改善。作用机制分析表明,养老服务金融对老年家庭消费的促进效应主要通过降低预防性储蓄压力、提高财产性收入和增强社会互动等路径实现。异质性分析结果显示,养老服务金融对东部地区家庭、农村家庭、低收入家庭、受教育程度较低家庭以及有传统养老观念家庭的消费提振作用更强。因此,建议金融机构开发兼具差异化、场景化和普惠性的养老金融产品,满足社会成员对养老资产配置的需求;同时健全金融产品与医疗健康、长期照护服务一体化的供给机制,优化备老人群的市场选择。 展开更多
关键词 养老金融 银发经济 商业保险持有 老年家庭消费 家庭资产配置
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央地视角下长期护理保险政策比较研究
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作者 彭天娇 张韦 +1 位作者 朱成燕 姚岚 《中国卫生政策研究》 北大核心 2026年第1期9-16,共8页
目的:对比中央层面与49个国家级试点城市长期护理保险政策的差异,为制度全面推行提供决策依据。方法:基于构建的长期护理保险政策分析框架,采用内容分析法,对15份中央政策文本及228份试点城市政策文本开展系统性比较,并辅以官方新闻报... 目的:对比中央层面与49个国家级试点城市长期护理保险政策的差异,为制度全面推行提供决策依据。方法:基于构建的长期护理保险政策分析框架,采用内容分析法,对15份中央政策文本及228份试点城市政策文本开展系统性比较,并辅以官方新闻报道作为补充材料。结果:各试点地区已基本完成核心制度建设,但在城乡居民覆盖、筹资渠道独立性、服务目录对应、专业照护人员供给及信息化技术应用等方面,与中央层面政策要求尚存显著差距。结论:建议各试点城市立足实际,稳步推进制度转型,逐步扩大参保对象覆盖范围,细化待遇给付的内容和标准,通过战略性支付整合存量照护资源,引领区域信息化建设,为制度统一规范推进奠定基础。 展开更多
关键词 长期护理保险 失能人群 筹资机制 失能评估
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Healthcare Needs of the Elderly People over 85 Years Living Alone on the Island Area in Japan: A Descriptive Study 被引量:1
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作者 Osamu Hiramitsu Michiko Moriyama +6 位作者 Kanae Osaki Ritsuko Sakamoto Megumi Sakamoto Shoko Maeno Hidemi Sasaki Katm Ehsanul Huq Md Moshiur Rahman 《Health》 2018年第4期516-530,共15页
Background: Japan has the highest aging people accounting 33.8 million with the rate of 26.7% in 2015. Although, public long-term care insurance services support people age 40 years and above, most of the users are 85... Background: Japan has the highest aging people accounting 33.8 million with the rate of 26.7% in 2015. Although, public long-term care insurance services support people age 40 years and above, most of the users are 85 years and over due to their more vulnerability for getting sick. This study describes the physical, mental and social status of the elderly people aged 85 years and over, who were living alone at home. Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted between November 2016 and March 2017 in the island of Kure city, Hiroshima, Japan. A structured questionnaire and scales were used for data collection and documentation of physical measurements. Descriptive analysis was used. Result: A total of 190 subjects were participated, and the data were analyzed. The age range of the subjects was 85 to 98 years, and 68.4% of them were 85 to 89 years old. Male and female ratio was 21.6% vs 78.4%. Subjects of 17.4% continued their occupation at the time of the study period and most of them involved in agricultural work (93.9%). A certain percentage of the subjects had abnormal physical, mental and social difficulties and need additional support from family, friends, relatives, and community. Conclusion: Early detection and intervention such as disease management, nutritional support, and human support are required. The findings suggested policy makers to predict the burden and provide necessary care for these elderly people. It is necessary to aware family, friends, relatives, community and government supporting staff to provide information on correct recognition and usages of long-term care insurance services for these elder people. 展开更多
关键词 ELDERLY LIVING ALONE long-term care insurance JAPAN
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长期护理保险筹资制度存在的问题与优化对策——以10个试点城市的数据为例 被引量:3
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作者 郑秉文 梁馨月 《行政管理改革》 北大核心 2025年第10期36-47,共12页
通过对长期护理保险10个试点城市筹资制度的深入调研和政策文本的系统梳理,在肯定其主要成效的基础上,对其筹资制度运行现状进行全面分析。10个试点城市在筹资标准、筹资结构、筹资渠道、保障范围、动态筹资调整机制等方面存在严重的碎... 通过对长期护理保险10个试点城市筹资制度的深入调研和政策文本的系统梳理,在肯定其主要成效的基础上,对其筹资制度运行现状进行全面分析。10个试点城市在筹资标准、筹资结构、筹资渠道、保障范围、动态筹资调整机制等方面存在严重的碎片化和不均衡现象,对医保基金和财政补助的依赖度过高,个人和单位筹资责任基本缺失。为降低试错成本和沉没成本,建议尽快公布全国统一的顶层制度设计,形成统一的规范性文件,并在过渡期为地方保留一定的自主调节空间。同时,优化责任共担机制,实行按比例筹资,构建动态筹资调整机制。 展开更多
关键词 长期护理保险试点 长期护理保险筹资 医保基金管理 社会保险 人口老龄化
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论商业保险参与医养结合的比较优势、特殊价值与实现机制 被引量:2
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作者 申曙光 孙静瑶 梁上聪 《西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第3期99-107,共9页
老龄化时代,医养结合既是推动老龄事业发展的关键举措,也是激活银发经济新动能的重要突破口。当前,责任主体协同困难、服务供需错配、支付保障能力薄弱及专业人才短缺等困境造成医养结合高质量发展掣肘。而商业保险机构凭借其长期资本... 老龄化时代,医养结合既是推动老龄事业发展的关键举措,也是激活银发经济新动能的重要突破口。当前,责任主体协同困难、服务供需错配、支付保障能力薄弱及专业人才短缺等困境造成医养结合高质量发展掣肘。而商业保险机构凭借其长期资本优势、资源整合能力、风险管理专长与高度的业务关联性,成为突破发展瓶颈的关键市场主体。商业保险机构的深度参与,既能通过资金端融通、服务端创新与消费端保障三维路径赋能医养结合发展,又能助力自身主业转型升级、业务边界拓展及社会价值提升,实现双向增益。本文建议通过“投资参与型”“服务合作型”“产品提供型”三大机制,实现商业保险比较优势向医养服务供给效能转化,推动形成多层次、高质量、可持续的医养结合新生态。 展开更多
关键词 医养结合 商业保险 银发经济 老龄化 养老金融
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中日对比视角下长期护理保险筹资与补偿模式分析 被引量:1
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作者 张军涛 汤丽娜 李歆 《现代日本经济》 北大核心 2025年第3期82-94,共13页
中国和日本都选择社会保险模式的长期护理保险制度来解决老人长期护理问题。而长期护理保险的筹资模式以及待遇补偿模式是该制度的核心内容。日本长期护理保险已经实施整整25年,可谓基本定型。我国还处在长期护理保险的试点阶段。通过... 中国和日本都选择社会保险模式的长期护理保险制度来解决老人长期护理问题。而长期护理保险的筹资模式以及待遇补偿模式是该制度的核心内容。日本长期护理保险已经实施整整25年,可谓基本定型。我国还处在长期护理保险的试点阶段。通过中日制度比较,发现日本的许多经验可以借鉴。例如,与收入关联型筹资的独特模式,即针对高收入人群体现为“高负担、低补偿”的特点,而对于低收入人群则展现出“低负担、高补偿”的特征。日本打造出了阶梯式差异化费用补偿、将失能预防与护理服务置于同等重要地位,并且兼顾护理者工作的联动制度设计。借鉴日本经验,我国需建立有中国特色的长期护理保险制度,其中建立长期护理保险的单独筹资机制,确保资金筹集的独立性与规范性;实施退休人员收入关联型缴费机制;收入分级背景下差异化费用补偿模式;补充预防支援服务与就业支援;按服务项目补偿费用等方案可供我国借鉴。 展开更多
关键词 长期护阶理保险 筹资模式 待遇补偿 失能预防 差异化费用补偿
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嘉兴市长期护理保险筹资与待遇给付现状及优化策略 被引量:1
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作者 井玉荣 王欣宁 +3 位作者 朱鸿飞 苏忠鑫 王颖 罗力 《中国卫生政策研究》 北大核心 2025年第1期51-57,共7页
嘉兴市是浙江省长期护理保险(以下简称长护险)政策的试点城市,通过研究嘉兴市长护险筹资(筹资对象、渠道、方式及标准)及待遇给付(给付形式、内容、标准及水平)政策实施现状,总结嘉兴市长护险政策的试点经验及问题。目前嘉兴市长护险筹... 嘉兴市是浙江省长期护理保险(以下简称长护险)政策的试点城市,通过研究嘉兴市长护险筹资(筹资对象、渠道、方式及标准)及待遇给付(给付形式、内容、标准及水平)政策实施现状,总结嘉兴市长护险政策的试点经验及问题。目前嘉兴市长护险筹资与待遇给付政策在试点过程中不断完善,筹资对象覆盖城乡居民,保障范围已由重度失能扩展至重度失智人员,给付内容不断完善,出台了服务项目目录,细化了服务单价。未来建议在考虑基金承受能力及可持续性基础上,进一步扩大保障范围至中度失能人群,差异化制定不同失能等级人群的待遇给付标准;强化用人单位及个人的责任,拓宽筹资渠道,逐步探索独立的长护险筹资机制;考虑定额及比例筹资方式相结合,综合考虑代际公平、人口老龄化趋势等因素,建立科学的费率动态调整筹资机制。 展开更多
关键词 长期护理保险 筹资 待遇给付 失能人群
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甘南州长期护理保险制度实施成效分析与发展建议
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作者 杨敬宇 魏学煊 +2 位作者 丛天珍 卢玺竹 王佳怡 《中国农村卫生事业管理》 2025年第9期657-662,671,共7页
目的 分析甘南州长期护理保险制度试点情况、基金运行与实施成效,为甘南州长期护理保险基金运行管理与发展提供参考建议。方法 通过收集甘南州2021—2023年长期护理保险制度试点政策、基金运行及待遇支付基本数据,采用数据包络分析模型(... 目的 分析甘南州长期护理保险制度试点情况、基金运行与实施成效,为甘南州长期护理保险基金运行管理与发展提供参考建议。方法 通过收集甘南州2021—2023年长期护理保险制度试点政策、基金运行及待遇支付基本数据,采用数据包络分析模型(DEA)分析长期护理保险基金运行效率,通过ILO筹资模型进行筹资水平测算,并通过单因素分析以及二元logistic回归分析模型进行甘南州长期护理需求影响因素分析。结果 甘南州长期护理保险制度试点参保人群狭窄,筹资水平较高,年龄、残疾、痴呆和脑卒中是影响长护险需求的主要因素(P<0.05)。结论 甘南州依托基本医保推进长护险制度试点已取得成效;要进一步优化长护险制度,通过完善筹资机制,开展长期护理服务体系建设等方式,持续推进长护险制度运行与发展。 展开更多
关键词 甘南州 长期护理保险 基金运行 DEA模型 ILO筹资模型 影响因素 实施成效 发展建议
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中国养老产业金融:发展现状、国际经验借鉴与推进路径 被引量:8
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作者 朱文佩 周宇轩 《西南金融》 北大核心 2025年第1期3-14,共12页
养老产业金融作为“做好养老金融大文章”的重要组成部分,为养老产业发展提供全方位的金融支撑。随着人口老龄化背景下养老需求的多样化转变,发展养老产业金融的重要性愈发凸显。新时代以来,我国养老产业金融发展取得明显进步,但仍面临... 养老产业金融作为“做好养老金融大文章”的重要组成部分,为养老产业发展提供全方位的金融支撑。随着人口老龄化背景下养老需求的多样化转变,发展养老产业金融的重要性愈发凸显。新时代以来,我国养老产业金融发展取得明显进步,但仍面临专项支持政策空缺、中小养老企业融资难、支持政策效果不及预期、创新型金融工具缺乏等困境。本文在总结美国、日本养老产业金融发展经验的基础上,从优化养老产业金融发展环境、创新支持养老产业发展的金融工具、鼓励养老服务企业上市融资、推动金融科技赋能养老产业转型升级、夯实养老服务消费能力提升的物质基础这五方面提出我国养老产业金融未来发展路径。 展开更多
关键词 养老金融 养老产业 产业金融 养老服务 长期护理保险 金融科技 人口老龄化 银发经济
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