In this paper,based on the structure-behavior coupling paradigm,we propose the concept of deviation of central town to describe the geography-market distance between farmers and the central regional town.Using the sur...In this paper,based on the structure-behavior coupling paradigm,we propose the concept of deviation of central town to describe the geography-market distance between farmers and the central regional town.Using the survey data from farmers in a poverty-stricken village in Western China,the impact of deviation of central town on farmers'livelihood strategies is analyzed.The results indicate that farmers exhibit spatial heterogeneity in their livelihood strategies.Those with low deviation show a strong inclination towards working in urban areas,while those with high deviation tend to integrate into rural industries.The deviation of central town influences farmers'livelihood strategies through the information effect,which is also affected by the level of rural infrastructure and public services,labor force structure and assistance policies.The obtained results are expected to provide guidance for promoting the integration of farmers into the urban-rural economic cycle based on sustainable livelihoods and connecting poverty alleviation with rural revitalization.展开更多
[Objective] The matter of chemical fertilizer being overused but organic fertilizer being deficiently used causes environment pollution and soil fertility degradation and holds back agricultural sustainable developmen...[Objective] The matter of chemical fertilizer being overused but organic fertilizer being deficiently used causes environment pollution and soil fertility degradation and holds back agricultural sustainable development in China at present.[Method] A survey of 200 farmers selected from Shandong province was conducted in 2008 to identify the factors influencing farmers willingness to use organic fertilizer.[Result] Logit model results showed that the proportion of non-farm income in total income,awareness of...展开更多
Since land and labor force are primary resources to be used and controlled by rural households, the allocation of labor forces will influence land uses, and further lead to land use conversion. The present study used ...Since land and labor force are primary resources to be used and controlled by rural households, the allocation of labor forces will influence land uses, and further lead to land use conversion. The present study used the Binary Logit model to investigate the influence of labor force transfer, characteristics of rural households, location, and land market on agricultural land use conversion at rural household level. This study was conducted based on 329 valid questionnaires, which were obtained in Changshu, Rudong, and Tongshan counties, respectively representing the southern, middle and northern areas of Jiangsu Province. The results showed that land market participation, location, zonal difference and labor transfer had strong influences on agricultural land use conversion. The participation of land market had a strong positive effect on land use conversion, especially for the farmland converted to the fishpond. The nearer to the county seat, the more conversion of land use occurred. Particularly, the labor force transfer caused by wage employment decreased this conversion probability, while the labor transfer caused by self-employment led to more conversion; and the increasing of income from labor transfer increased the conversion. Moreover, land use con- versions demonstrated zonal difference, which were more in Rudong and Changshu counties than in Tongshan County, and the factors influencing this conversion were different in the three regions.展开更多
In this paper, we explore the properties of a positive-part Stein-like estimator which is a stochastically weighted convex combination of a fully correlated parameter model estimator and uncorrelated parameter model e...In this paper, we explore the properties of a positive-part Stein-like estimator which is a stochastically weighted convex combination of a fully correlated parameter model estimator and uncorrelated parameter model estimator in the Random Parameters Logit (RPL) model. The results of our Monte Carlo experiments show that the positive-part Stein-like estimator provides smaller MSE than the pretest estimator in the fully correlated RPL model. Both of them outperform the fully correlated RPL model estimator and provide more accurate information on the share of population putting a positive or negative value on the alternative attributes than the fully correlated RPL model estimates. The Monte Carlo mean estimates of direct elasticity with pretest and positive-part Stein-like estimators are closer to the true value and have smaller standard errors than those with fully correlated RPL model estimator.展开更多
By developing 7 logit models, this study attempts to identify the independent variables, which influence the risk of the Chinese high technology products output. The total sample comprises 184 enterprises surveyed in ...By developing 7 logit models, this study attempts to identify the independent variables, which influence the risk of the Chinese high technology products output. The total sample comprises 184 enterprises surveyed in Gangdong province, Beijing and Shanghai from June to September of 2002.The most statistically significant independent variables are found to be the R＆D proportion, the enterprise kind, the enterprise scale, the product kind and exporters. The study suggests that the logit model should be effectively used by enterprises and governments to assess the risk of high technology products output.展开更多
Housing problem is the problem of livelihood. The problem of housing consumer behavior has become one of the main concern of the Government after more than 10 years the rapid development of real estate. This article i...Housing problem is the problem of livelihood. The problem of housing consumer behavior has become one of the main concern of the Government after more than 10 years the rapid development of real estate. This article is based on the logit model, integrated family net worth, family income, labor factors and so on. Results showed that housing in Shanghai have household net worth is the most critical, followed by labour income and labour force.展开更多
The need for travel demand models is growing worldwide. Obtaining reasonably accurate level of service (LOS) attributes of different travel modes such as travel time and cost representing the performance of transporta...The need for travel demand models is growing worldwide. Obtaining reasonably accurate level of service (LOS) attributes of different travel modes such as travel time and cost representing the performance of transportation system is not a trivial task, especially in growing cities of developing countries. This study investigates the sensitivity of results of a travel mode choice model to different specifications of network-based LOS attributes using a mixed logit model. The study also looks at the possibilities of correcting some of the inaccuracies in network-based LOS attributes. Further, the study also explores the effects of different specifications of LOS data on implied values of time and aggregation forecasting. The findings indicate that the implied values of time are very sensitive to specification of data and model implying that utmost care must be taken if the purpose of the model is to estimate values of time. Models estimated on all specifications of LOS-data perform well in prediction, likely suggesting that the extra expense on developing a more detailed and accurate network models so as to derive more precise LOS attributes is unnecessary for impact analyses of some policies.展开更多
The mobility of sizable trucks is often limited by their large size.They thus may have addi-tional requirements on road types,road widths,and the turning radius at the intersection when travelling.Therefore,this study...The mobility of sizable trucks is often limited by their large size.They thus may have addi-tional requirements on road types,road widths,and the turning radius at the intersection when travelling.Therefore,this study explores the unique needs and preferences of large truck drivers’route choice with a focus on trip and road network characteristics.Global positioning system(GPS)trajectory data from the central Kansai area of Japan with numer-ous ports and freight terminals are used.Trajectories are considered to have the same ori-gin(destination)if their starting(ending)coordinates are in the same 500 m500 m mesh.For the trajectories of the same pair of origin-destination(OD)meshes,several route clusters are obtained based on geographical configuration using a QuickBundles algorithm.Sampling techniques are employed to equalize the number of input points for each vehicle trajectory and the optimal number of clusters is determined automatically by our algo-rithm based on the silhouette coefficient.By taking the clusters as route choice options for an OD pair,a conditional logit model is used to identify the factors that influence the route choice considering both vehicle-and trip-specific attributes.The results quantify the preference of trucks for wider roads and toll routes,as well as aversion to long dis-tances and turns.The heterogeneity in route choice based on vehicle type,trip time(date),and trip purpose is also evident.The findings of this study can provide insights for freight road network design and optimization.展开更多
With rapid urbanization,subway systems are widely acknowledged as one of the best solutions to urban transportation problems.The operators or managers of subway systems should pay more attention to passenger＇s percep...With rapid urbanization,subway systems are widely acknowledged as one of the best solutions to urban transportation problems.The operators or managers of subway systems should pay more attention to passenger＇s perceptions of service quality to maintain its competitive position.Taking the traffic state,efficiency,and environmental impact into consideration,the concept of generalized comfort is proposed in this paper.Based on a nested logit model,the selection probability for each factor in a generalized comfort function can be estimated using a nested structure.A certain factor is considered to be more significant in a generalized comfort function than others,when the corresponding probability of this factor is higher in value.Using stated preference and revealed preference data about passenger travel behavior obtained from the Beijing subway,the parameters of generalized comfort function are estimated by maximum likelihood techniques.展开更多
Select link analysis provides information of where traffic comes from and goes to at selected links.This disaggregate information has wide applications in practice.The state-of-the-art planning software packages often...Select link analysis provides information of where traffic comes from and goes to at selected links.This disaggregate information has wide applications in practice.The state-of-the-art planning software packages often adopt the user equilibrium(UE) model for select link analysis.However,empirical studies have repeatedly revealed that the stochastic user equilibrium model more accurately predicts observed mean and variance of choices than the UE model.This paper proposes an alternative select link analysis method by making use of the recently developed logit–weibit hybrid model,to alleviate the drawbacks of both logit and weibit models while keeping a closed-form route choice probability expression.To enhance the applicability in large-scale networks,Bell’s stochastic loading method originally developed for logit model is adapted to the hybrid model.The features of the proposed method are twofold:(1) unique O–D-specific link flow pattern and more plausible behavioral realism attributed to the hybrid route choice model and(2) applicability in large-scale networks due to the link-based stochastic loading method.An illustrative network example and a case study in a large-scale network are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed select link analysis method as well as applications of O–D-specific link flow information.A visualizationmethod is also proposed to enhance the understanding of O–D-specific link flow originally in the form of a matrix.展开更多
Logit\|Probit model is investigated as an extra measured error mixed with the user′s utility in multinomial logit model. In the situation, the discrete choice proportion is considered as the conditional probability, ...Logit\|Probit model is investigated as an extra measured error mixed with the user′s utility in multinomial logit model. In the situation, the discrete choice proportion is considered as the conditional probability, the form of multinomial logit and the random variable. The distribution of the conditional probability is derived from the multinormal distribution of the measured error to the distribution of quotient of lognormal random variables. Examples are employed to illustrate its application.展开更多
In this paper,we study optimal model averaging estimators of regression coefficients in a multinomial logit model,which is commonly used in many scientific fields.A Kullback-Leibler(KL)loss-based weight choice criteri...In this paper,we study optimal model averaging estimators of regression coefficients in a multinomial logit model,which is commonly used in many scientific fields.A Kullback-Leibler(KL)loss-based weight choice criterion is developed to determine averaging weights.Under some regularity conditions,we prove that the resulting model averaging estimators are asymptotically optimal.When the true model is one of the candidate models,the averaged estimators are consistent.Simulation studies suggest the superiority of the proposed method over commonly used model selection criterions,model averaging methods,as well as some other related methods in terms of the KL loss and mean squared forecast error.Finally,the website phishing data is used to illustrate the proposed method.展开更多
Based on a questionnaire data from 553 cities in China, this study used logistic regression to examine the effects of age, education, gender, occupation, and region on intercity talent mobility.The results revealed th...Based on a questionnaire data from 553 cities in China, this study used logistic regression to examine the effects of age, education, gender, occupation, and region on intercity talent mobility.The results revealed that individuals aged 26~45 years with work experience are more willing to relocate compared with most college students or individuals with little work experience. Furthermore,individuals who have acquired a bachelor’s degree are willing to relocate, whereas those who have acquired a master’s degree and above are less willing to relocate. In addition, cities offer a higher pay and better prospects for highly qualified individuals, so mobility seems less likely happen. Moreover,intercity mobility is higher for scientific research institutions than that for other industries. Talents tend to flow from central and western cities to eastern cities. Factors determining intercity talent mobility differ from region to region. Therefore, local governments, especially in central and western cities, should actively conduct research on talent strategies while promoting the construction of the city’s regional economy;formulate scientific policies on talent mobility;promote the reasonable flow of talent;and provide an effective talent pool for urban development.展开更多
Bicycling has been actively promoted as a clean and efficient mode of commute.Besides,due to the personal and societal benefits it provides,it has been adopted by many city dwellers for short-distance trips.Despite th...Bicycling has been actively promoted as a clean and efficient mode of commute.Besides,due to the personal and societal benefits it provides,it has been adopted by many city dwellers for short-distance trips.Despite the integral role this active transport mode plays,it is unfortunately associated with a high risk of fatalities in the event of a traffic crash as they are not protected.Many studies have been conducted in several jurisdictions to examine the factors contributing to crashes involving these vulnerable road users.In the case of Louisiana which is currently experiencing increased cases of severe and fatal bicycleinvolved crashes,less attention has been paid to investigating the critical factors influencing bicyclist injury severity outcomes using more detailed data and advanced econometric modeling frameworks to help propose adequate policies to improve the safety of riders.Against this background,this study examined the key contributing factors influencing bicyclist injuries by using more detailed roadway crash data spanning 2010-2016 obtained from the state of Louisiana.The study then applies an advanced random parameter logit modeling with heterogeneity in means and variances to address the unobserved heterogeneity issue associated with traffic crash data.To overcome the imbalanced data issue,three major crash injury levels were used instead of the conventional five crash injury levels.Besides,the data groups classified under each injury level were compared for the final variable selection.The study found that distracted drivers,elderly bicyclists,careless operations,and riding in dark conditions increase the probability of having severe injuries in vehicle-bicyclist crashes.Moreover,the variables for straight-level roadways and city streets decrease the odds of severe injuries.The straight-level roadway may provide better sight distance for both drivers and bicyclists,and complex environments like city streets discourage crashes with severe injuries.展开更多
During big events, non-local private car travelers can be divided into two types which were returning in one day and in several days. It was demonstrated that those two kinds of travelers have distinct behavior on par...During big events, non-local private car travelers can be divided into two types which were returning in one day and in several days. It was demonstrated that those two kinds of travelers have distinct behavior on park and ride （P＆R）, due to their different travel demand and behavior attributes. In this paper focusing on the travelers returning in several days, the travel attributes and requirements for P＆R were analyzed with stated preference survey. A P＆R choice behavior disaggregated logit model was established and calibrated based on random utility theory. The model concludes three variables, which were travel time, parking fee and comprehensive attractiveness index for suburban satellite towns comparing to urban district. The results revealed that for travelers returning in several days the primary key point is increasing the attractiveness of suburban satellite towns.展开更多
文摘In this paper,based on the structure-behavior coupling paradigm,we propose the concept of deviation of central town to describe the geography-market distance between farmers and the central regional town.Using the survey data from farmers in a poverty-stricken village in Western China,the impact of deviation of central town on farmers'livelihood strategies is analyzed.The results indicate that farmers exhibit spatial heterogeneity in their livelihood strategies.Those with low deviation show a strong inclination towards working in urban areas,while those with high deviation tend to integrate into rural industries.The deviation of central town influences farmers'livelihood strategies through the information effect,which is also affected by the level of rural infrastructure and public services,labor force structure and assistance policies.The obtained results are expected to provide guidance for promoting the integration of farmers into the urban-rural economic cycle based on sustainable livelihoods and connecting poverty alleviation with rural revitalization.
文摘[Objective] The matter of chemical fertilizer being overused but organic fertilizer being deficiently used causes environment pollution and soil fertility degradation and holds back agricultural sustainable development in China at present.[Method] A survey of 200 farmers selected from Shandong province was conducted in 2008 to identify the factors influencing farmers willingness to use organic fertilizer.[Result] Logit model results showed that the proportion of non-farm income in total income,awareness of...
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40801063, 70373029)Jiangsu Provincial Society Foundation (No. 06EYB004)
文摘Since land and labor force are primary resources to be used and controlled by rural households, the allocation of labor forces will influence land uses, and further lead to land use conversion. The present study used the Binary Logit model to investigate the influence of labor force transfer, characteristics of rural households, location, and land market on agricultural land use conversion at rural household level. This study was conducted based on 329 valid questionnaires, which were obtained in Changshu, Rudong, and Tongshan counties, respectively representing the southern, middle and northern areas of Jiangsu Province. The results showed that land market participation, location, zonal difference and labor transfer had strong influences on agricultural land use conversion. The participation of land market had a strong positive effect on land use conversion, especially for the farmland converted to the fishpond. The nearer to the county seat, the more conversion of land use occurred. Particularly, the labor force transfer caused by wage employment decreased this conversion probability, while the labor transfer caused by self-employment led to more conversion; and the increasing of income from labor transfer increased the conversion. Moreover, land use con- versions demonstrated zonal difference, which were more in Rudong and Changshu counties than in Tongshan County, and the factors influencing this conversion were different in the three regions.
文摘In this paper, we explore the properties of a positive-part Stein-like estimator which is a stochastically weighted convex combination of a fully correlated parameter model estimator and uncorrelated parameter model estimator in the Random Parameters Logit (RPL) model. The results of our Monte Carlo experiments show that the positive-part Stein-like estimator provides smaller MSE than the pretest estimator in the fully correlated RPL model. Both of them outperform the fully correlated RPL model estimator and provide more accurate information on the share of population putting a positive or negative value on the alternative attributes than the fully correlated RPL model estimates. The Monte Carlo mean estimates of direct elasticity with pretest and positive-part Stein-like estimators are closer to the true value and have smaller standard errors than those with fully correlated RPL model estimator.
文摘By developing 7 logit models, this study attempts to identify the independent variables, which influence the risk of the Chinese high technology products output. The total sample comprises 184 enterprises surveyed in Gangdong province, Beijing and Shanghai from June to September of 2002.The most statistically significant independent variables are found to be the R＆D proportion, the enterprise kind, the enterprise scale, the product kind and exporters. The study suggests that the logit model should be effectively used by enterprises and governments to assess the risk of high technology products output.
文摘Housing problem is the problem of livelihood. The problem of housing consumer behavior has become one of the main concern of the Government after more than 10 years the rapid development of real estate. This article is based on the logit model, integrated family net worth, family income, labor factors and so on. Results showed that housing in Shanghai have household net worth is the most critical, followed by labour income and labour force.
文摘The need for travel demand models is growing worldwide. Obtaining reasonably accurate level of service (LOS) attributes of different travel modes such as travel time and cost representing the performance of transportation system is not a trivial task, especially in growing cities of developing countries. This study investigates the sensitivity of results of a travel mode choice model to different specifications of network-based LOS attributes using a mixed logit model. The study also looks at the possibilities of correcting some of the inaccuracies in network-based LOS attributes. Further, the study also explores the effects of different specifications of LOS data on implied values of time and aggregation forecasting. The findings indicate that the implied values of time are very sensitive to specification of data and model implying that utmost care must be taken if the purpose of the model is to estimate values of time. Models estimated on all specifications of LOS-data perform well in prediction, likely suggesting that the extra expense on developing a more detailed and accurate network models so as to derive more precise LOS attributes is unnecessary for impact analyses of some policies.
基金supported by the Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism of Japan under the project"Research and development of technologies that contribute to improving the quality of road policy"and supported by China Scholarship Council.
文摘The mobility of sizable trucks is often limited by their large size.They thus may have addi-tional requirements on road types,road widths,and the turning radius at the intersection when travelling.Therefore,this study explores the unique needs and preferences of large truck drivers’route choice with a focus on trip and road network characteristics.Global positioning system(GPS)trajectory data from the central Kansai area of Japan with numer-ous ports and freight terminals are used.Trajectories are considered to have the same ori-gin(destination)if their starting(ending)coordinates are in the same 500 m500 m mesh.For the trajectories of the same pair of origin-destination(OD)meshes,several route clusters are obtained based on geographical configuration using a QuickBundles algorithm.Sampling techniques are employed to equalize the number of input points for each vehicle trajectory and the optimal number of clusters is determined automatically by our algo-rithm based on the silhouette coefficient.By taking the clusters as route choice options for an OD pair,a conditional logit model is used to identify the factors that influence the route choice considering both vehicle-and trip-specific attributes.The results quantify the preference of trucks for wider roads and toll routes,as well as aversion to long dis-tances and turns.The heterogeneity in route choice based on vehicle type,trip time(date),and trip purpose is also evident.The findings of this study can provide insights for freight road network design and optimization.
基金supported by the National High-Tech Research and Development (863) Program of China (No. 2012AA112305)the National Key Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (No. 2012CB725405)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 60721003 and 61273238)
文摘With rapid urbanization,subway systems are widely acknowledged as one of the best solutions to urban transportation problems.The operators or managers of subway systems should pay more attention to passenger＇s perceptions of service quality to maintain its competitive position.Taking the traffic state,efficiency,and environmental impact into consideration,the concept of generalized comfort is proposed in this paper.Based on a nested logit model,the selection probability for each factor in a generalized comfort function can be estimated using a nested structure.A certain factor is considered to be more significant in a generalized comfort function than others,when the corresponding probability of this factor is higher in value.Using stated preference and revealed preference data about passenger travel behavior obtained from the Beijing subway,the parameters of generalized comfort function are estimated by maximum likelihood techniques.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(51408433)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Chinathe Chenguang Program sponsored by Shanghai Education Development Foundation and Shanghai Municipal Education Commission
文摘Select link analysis provides information of where traffic comes from and goes to at selected links.This disaggregate information has wide applications in practice.The state-of-the-art planning software packages often adopt the user equilibrium(UE) model for select link analysis.However,empirical studies have repeatedly revealed that the stochastic user equilibrium model more accurately predicts observed mean and variance of choices than the UE model.This paper proposes an alternative select link analysis method by making use of the recently developed logit–weibit hybrid model,to alleviate the drawbacks of both logit and weibit models while keeping a closed-form route choice probability expression.To enhance the applicability in large-scale networks,Bell’s stochastic loading method originally developed for logit model is adapted to the hybrid model.The features of the proposed method are twofold:(1) unique O–D-specific link flow pattern and more plausible behavioral realism attributed to the hybrid route choice model and(2) applicability in large-scale networks due to the link-based stochastic loading method.An illustrative network example and a case study in a large-scale network are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed select link analysis method as well as applications of O–D-specific link flow information.A visualizationmethod is also proposed to enhance the understanding of O–D-specific link flow originally in the form of a matrix.
基金Supported by Natural Science Fund and Aviation Science Fund
文摘Logit\|Probit model is investigated as an extra measured error mixed with the user′s utility in multinomial logit model. In the situation, the discrete choice proportion is considered as the conditional probability, the form of multinomial logit and the random variable. The distribution of the conditional probability is derived from the multinormal distribution of the measured error to the distribution of quotient of lognormal random variables. Examples are employed to illustrate its application.
基金supported by Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11771268)a center named Shanghai Research Center for Data Science and Decision Technology.
文摘In this paper,we study optimal model averaging estimators of regression coefficients in a multinomial logit model,which is commonly used in many scientific fields.A Kullback-Leibler(KL)loss-based weight choice criterion is developed to determine averaging weights.Under some regularity conditions,we prove that the resulting model averaging estimators are asymptotically optimal.When the true model is one of the candidate models,the averaged estimators are consistent.Simulation studies suggest the superiority of the proposed method over commonly used model selection criterions,model averaging methods,as well as some other related methods in terms of the KL loss and mean squared forecast error.Finally,the website phishing data is used to illustrate the proposed method.
基金Supported by the Social Science Fund of Xinjiang (17BKS008)National Natural Science Foundation of China (71988101)。
文摘Based on a questionnaire data from 553 cities in China, this study used logistic regression to examine the effects of age, education, gender, occupation, and region on intercity talent mobility.The results revealed that individuals aged 26~45 years with work experience are more willing to relocate compared with most college students or individuals with little work experience. Furthermore,individuals who have acquired a bachelor’s degree are willing to relocate, whereas those who have acquired a master’s degree and above are less willing to relocate. In addition, cities offer a higher pay and better prospects for highly qualified individuals, so mobility seems less likely happen. Moreover,intercity mobility is higher for scientific research institutions than that for other industries. Talents tend to flow from central and western cities to eastern cities. Factors determining intercity talent mobility differ from region to region. Therefore, local governments, especially in central and western cities, should actively conduct research on talent strategies while promoting the construction of the city’s regional economy;formulate scientific policies on talent mobility;promote the reasonable flow of talent;and provide an effective talent pool for urban development.
文摘Bicycling has been actively promoted as a clean and efficient mode of commute.Besides,due to the personal and societal benefits it provides,it has been adopted by many city dwellers for short-distance trips.Despite the integral role this active transport mode plays,it is unfortunately associated with a high risk of fatalities in the event of a traffic crash as they are not protected.Many studies have been conducted in several jurisdictions to examine the factors contributing to crashes involving these vulnerable road users.In the case of Louisiana which is currently experiencing increased cases of severe and fatal bicycleinvolved crashes,less attention has been paid to investigating the critical factors influencing bicyclist injury severity outcomes using more detailed data and advanced econometric modeling frameworks to help propose adequate policies to improve the safety of riders.Against this background,this study examined the key contributing factors influencing bicyclist injuries by using more detailed roadway crash data spanning 2010-2016 obtained from the state of Louisiana.The study then applies an advanced random parameter logit modeling with heterogeneity in means and variances to address the unobserved heterogeneity issue associated with traffic crash data.To overcome the imbalanced data issue,three major crash injury levels were used instead of the conventional five crash injury levels.Besides,the data groups classified under each injury level were compared for the final variable selection.The study found that distracted drivers,elderly bicyclists,careless operations,and riding in dark conditions increase the probability of having severe injuries in vehicle-bicyclist crashes.Moreover,the variables for straight-level roadways and city streets decrease the odds of severe injuries.The straight-level roadway may provide better sight distance for both drivers and bicyclists,and complex environments like city streets discourage crashes with severe injuries.
文摘During big events, non-local private car travelers can be divided into two types which were returning in one day and in several days. It was demonstrated that those two kinds of travelers have distinct behavior on park and ride （P＆R）, due to their different travel demand and behavior attributes. In this paper focusing on the travelers returning in several days, the travel attributes and requirements for P＆R were analyzed with stated preference survey. A P＆R choice behavior disaggregated logit model was established and calibrated based on random utility theory. The model concludes three variables, which were travel time, parking fee and comprehensive attractiveness index for suburban satellite towns comparing to urban district. The results revealed that for travelers returning in several days the primary key point is increasing the attractiveness of suburban satellite towns.
