The progress of the World Bank loaned TB control project implemented from the second quarter of 1991 to the fourth quarter of 1993 was reported in this paper. In the past three years, 737 counties of the 12 provinces ...The progress of the World Bank loaned TB control project implemented from the second quarter of 1991 to the fourth quarter of 1993 was reported in this paper. In the past three years, 737 counties of the 12 provinces with the popula-展开更多
Trend with an increase to EUR l67 mn(compared with minus EUR122.8 mn in 2023).Liquid assets decreased by 38.2 percent compared to December 3l,2023,to a level of EUR 451.7 mn as of December 31,2024,mainly dueto the rep...Trend with an increase to EUR l67 mn(compared with minus EUR122.8 mn in 2023).Liquid assets decreased by 38.2 percent compared to December 3l,2023,to a level of EUR 451.7 mn as of December 31,2024,mainly dueto the repayment of private placements and other loans and borrowings.展开更多
Banks rely on soft information when assessing loan applications,making it crucial to evaluate the trustworthiness of potential borrowers in order to set loan conditions,even in a legal environment where contractual ri...Banks rely on soft information when assessing loan applications,making it crucial to evaluate the trustworthiness of potential borrowers in order to set loan conditions,even in a legal environment where contractual rights are straightforwardly enforced.Given the common belief that certain personality traits—such as trustworthiness,reliability,loyalty,thriftiness,and stinginess—are more often linked to conservatives(Republicans)than to liberals(Democrats),we investigate whether companies with conservative chief executive officers(CEOs)secure more advantageous loan terms compared to others.Our findings indicate that firms with conservative CEOs are able to negotiate bank loans with lower interest spreads and upfront fees.While we do not observe a direct impact of CEO overconfidence on loan pricing,we reveal that the combined influence of CEO conservatism and overconfidence contributes to our primary findings.Additionally,we discovered that conservative CEOs tend to receive more favorable non-price conditions(fewer covenants)and are less inclined to offer collateral.展开更多
In recent years,the microloan industry has faced unprecedented challenges under strict regulatory policies.The adjustment of regulatory policies,such as raising the entry threshold and strengthening risk management,ha...In recent years,the microloan industry has faced unprecedented challenges under strict regulatory policies.The adjustment of regulatory policies,such as raising the entry threshold and strengthening risk management,has significantly increased the compliance cost of small loan companies and limited their business operations.The industry faces major challenges such as narrow funding sources,increased difficulty in risk control,and intensified market competition.In response to these challenges,the microfinance industry actively explores the path of transformation and innovation,including the innovation of business models,the deepening of science and technology application,and the construction of cooperation and win-win mechanisms.At the same time,strengthening internal compliance management,actively responding to regulatory policy changes,and improving the level of industry self-discipline have become the key to the development of industry compliance.This paper deeply analyzes the development of the microfinance industry under strict supervision and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.展开更多
Decentralized finance(DeFi)has revolutionized traditional financial paradigms by enabling innovative,permissionless financial transactions.Among these,flash loans represent a significant breakthrough,offering rapid li...Decentralized finance(DeFi)has revolutionized traditional financial paradigms by enabling innovative,permissionless financial transactions.Among these,flash loans represent a significant breakthrough,offering rapid liquidity without collateral requirements.However,the very features that make flash loans appealing also expose DeFi ecosystems to severe security threats.This paper presents a systematic analysis of flash loan attack methodologies,their implications,and potential countermeasures.We formalize the problem via a game-theoretic model,delineating the interactions between malicious actors and security mechanisms.Through detailed case studies of major flash loan attacks,we illustrate common exploit strategies and vulnerabilities within smart contracts.Furthermore,we propose a comprehensive,multilayered security framework that integrates real-time anomaly detection,enhanced smart contract verification,decentralized governance improvements,and cross-platform intelligence sharing.Empirical analysis leveraging blockchain security datasets underscores the viability of these mitigative measures.Our findings contribute to the broader discourse on DeFi security by providing a structured approach to mitigating the systemic risks associated with flash loans,thereby enhancing the resilience of decentralized financial systems.展开更多
This study examines the impact of banks’environmental,social,and governance(ESG)disclosure assurance(BEDA)on borrowing enterprises’ESG performance to investigate China’s bank-enterprise loan relationships.Using man...This study examines the impact of banks’environmental,social,and governance(ESG)disclosure assurance(BEDA)on borrowing enterprises’ESG performance to investigate China’s bank-enterprise loan relationships.Using manually collected bank loan relationship data and financial data of Chinese listed companies from 2010 to 2021,our findings reveal that BEDA significantly enhances borrowers’ESG performance.Moreover,this effect is more pronounced when banks have a higher information demand,better internal controls,and share auditors with borrowers;when borrowers operate in environmentally sensitive industries,and in the period following the Paris Agreement signing.Among the individual ESG subcategories,the impact of BEDA on borrowers’ESG performance is primarily reflected in environmental(E)and social(S)considerations.Finally,we do not find that BEDA significantly suppresses banks’greenwashing.These findings indicate that BEDA has an informational or advisory influence on banks’ESG governance rather than a supervisory role at this stage of sustainability reporting development.This study suggests that policymakers should guide BEDA’s evolution from a passive information tool to a proactive governance tool,facilitating enterprises in achieving sub‐stantive ESG transformations while reducing systemic greenwashing risks.展开更多
Based on the redefinition of Chinese loan words and corresponding types of Chinese loan words, this article makes an initiative hypothesis that nowadays the ideographic trend of Chinese loan words is being hastened to...Based on the redefinition of Chinese loan words and corresponding types of Chinese loan words, this article makes an initiative hypothesis that nowadays the ideographic trend of Chinese loan words is being hastened to a greater degree than before.Depending on the Prototype Models Theory for the types of Chinese loan words, a comprehensive analysis of this trend is made in four aspects:the transfer from transliteration loans to loan translation;the ideographic trend of transliteration loans;the full ideograph of shift loan words;word-for-word translation of loan words.展开更多
The development of China has tremendously enhanced the intercultural communication among various nations and ethnic groups. As a result, more and more words are borrowed from English into Chinese to express those west...The development of China has tremendously enhanced the intercultural communication among various nations and ethnic groups. As a result, more and more words are borrowed from English into Chinese to express those western-oriented objects,concepts, values, etc. This paper focuses on English loan words and their impact on Chinese. First, their classification will be presented; then, this paper will elaborate on the main characteristics of them; at last, their lexical as well as cultural impact on Chinese are revealed. Overall, it aims at proving that English loan words help promote the development and innovation of the Chinese language and enhance the performance of different language learners thus facilitating international exchange and crosscultural communication.展开更多
Over the past 10 years,crowdfunding,which allows a large number of individuals to collectively finance a new business venture through a technology platform,has risen rapidly as a popular way of financing a wide range ...Over the past 10 years,crowdfunding,which allows a large number of individuals to collectively finance a new business venture through a technology platform,has risen rapidly as a popular way of financing a wide range of activities including business ventures,personal loans,and charity projects.The modern crowdfunding business mode consists of three types of players:the project proposers who provide the original idea/blueprint/project that requires external finance,potential investors who are interested in the idea,and an internet platform that brings all parties alongside to kick-start the new business venture.展开更多
Background:This study examined the determinants of loan repayment among microcredit finance group members in Delta State,Nigeria.Methods:To capture the determinants of loan repayment in the study area,a total of 48 mi...Background:This study examined the determinants of loan repayment among microcredit finance group members in Delta State,Nigeria.Methods:To capture the determinants of loan repayment in the study area,a total of 48 microcredit groups and 300 microcredit group members were randomly selected through a multi-stage random sampling technique.The study data was collected by questionnaire.Statistical tools such as simple descriptive statistics(table,frequency,percentage and mean)and a multiple regression analysis were used to examine the data.Results:The results indicate that females form a greater proportion of the study area microcredit group members at 70%,moreover 73%of the respondents have a household size of between 6 to 10 persons.These findings revealed that the groups had a mean 8 years of existence with a mean membership size of 13 persons.Further,an average interest rate of 40 percent per annum was charged on loans,with mean loan duration of 6 months.The regression’s result demonstrated that the determinants of the group member’s loan repayment included the group member’s age,household size,house income,and educational level,the amount of credit received,length of stay in their locality,distance to the credit source,supervision and disbursement lag.Conclusion:Therefore it was suggested that the various agricultural microcredit finance groups should carefully examine the significant determinants of loan repayment for the approach’s viability and sustainability and for optimum repayment performance.展开更多
During the financial crisis, the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments was identified as a weakness in existing incurred loss model of impairment stated by International Account...During the financial crisis, the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments was identified as a weakness in existing incurred loss model of impairment stated by International Accounting Standards （IAS） 39, because it is believed that this delay might generate pro-cyclical effects. In response to the recommendations of G20, Financial Crisis Advisory Group （FCAG）, and other international bodies, the International Accounting Standards Board （IASB） has undertaken, since 2009, as a part of the project to replace IAS 39, a project （partially shared with Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB）） aimed at introducing an expected loss model of impairment. Within the scope of this subset project, the IASB has previously issued two exposure documents proposing models to account for expected credit losses： an exposure draft （ED） Financial Instrument： Amortized Cost and Impairment, published in November 2009, and a supplementary document （SD） Financial Instrument： Impairment, published jointly with the FASB in January 2011. However, neither of the two proposals received strong support from interested parties. Recently, the IASB, after the FASB＇s decision to withdraw from the joint project and to develop a separate expected credit loss model based on a single measurement approach consisting in the sole recognition of lifetime expected credit losses, published a third proposal--Ahe so-called expected credit losses model （ED/2013/3 Financial Instruments： Expected Credit Losses）.展开更多
Central bank digital currencies(CBDCs),which are legal tenders in digital form,are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy.In addition,these currencies may a...Central bank digital currencies(CBDCs),which are legal tenders in digital form,are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy.In addition,these currencies may also reduce consumers’need for conventional demand deposits,which,in turn,increases banks’loan provision costs because deposits require higher rates of return.We use a microeconomic banking model to investigate the effects of introducing an economy-wide,account-type CBDC on a bank’s loan supply and its failure risk.Given that a CBDC is expected to lower the cost of liquidity circulation and become a strong substitute for demand deposits,both the loan supply and the bank failure risk increase.These increases are countered by subsequent increases in the rates of return on term deposits and loans,which,in turn,reduce the loan supply and thus bank failure risk.These offsetting forces lead to no significant change in banking,as long as the rate of return on loans is below a certain threshold.However,once the rate is above the threshold,bank failure risk increases,thereby undermining banking stability.The problem is more pronounced when the degree of pass-through of funding costs to the loan rate is high and the profitability of a successful project is low.Our results imply that central banks wishing to introduce an economy-wide,account-type CBDC should first monitor yields on bank loans and consider policy measures that induce banks to maintain adequate liquidity reserve levels.展开更多
This study investigates the need for credit supervision as conducted by on-site banking supervisors.It builds on a real bank on-site credit examination to compare the performance of a hypothetical self-supervision app...This study investigates the need for credit supervision as conducted by on-site banking supervisors.It builds on a real bank on-site credit examination to compare the performance of a hypothetical self-supervision approach,in which banks themselves assess their loan portfolios without external intervention,with the on-site banking supervision approach of the Central Bank of Brazil.The experiment develops two machine learning classification models:the first model is based on good and bad ratings informed by banks,and the second model is based on past on-site credit portfolio examinations conducted by banking supervision.The findings show that the overall performance of the on-site supervision approach is consistently higher than the performance of the self-supervision approach,justifying the need for on-site credit portfolio examination as conducted by the Central Bank.展开更多
Giving loans and issuing credit cards are two of the main concerns of banks in that they include the risks of non-payment.According to the Basel 2 guidelines,banks need to develop their own credit risk assessment syst...Giving loans and issuing credit cards are two of the main concerns of banks in that they include the risks of non-payment.According to the Basel 2 guidelines,banks need to develop their own credit risk assessment systems.Some banks have such systems;nevertheless they have lost a large amount of money simply because the models they used failed to accurately predict customers’defaults.Traditionally,banks have used static models with demographic or static factors to model credit risk patterns.However,economic factors are not independent of political fluctuations,and as the political environment changes,the economic environment evolves with it.This has been especially evident in Iran after the 2008-2016 USA sanctions,as many previously reliable customers became unable to repay their debt(i.e.,became bad customers).Nevertheless,a dynamic model that can accommodate fluctuating politicoeconomic factors has never been developed.In this paper,we propose a model that can accommodate factors associated with politico-economic crises.Human judgement is removed from the customer evaluation process.We used a fuzzy inference system to create a rule base using a set of uncertainty predictors.First,we train an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS)using monthly data from a customer profile dataset.Then,using the newly defined factors and their underlying rules,a second round of assessment begins in a fuzzy inference system.Thus,we present a model that is both more flexible to politico-economic factors and can yield results that are max compatible with real-life situations.Comparison between the prediction made by proposed model and a real non-performing loan indicates little difference between them.Credit risk specialists also approve the results.The major innovation of this research is producing a table of bad customers on a monthly basis and creating a dynamic model based on the table.The latest created model is used for assessing customers henceforth,so the whole process of customer assessment need not be repeated.We assert that this model is a good substitute for the static models currently in use as it can outperform traditional models,especially in the face of economic crisis.展开更多
Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector w...Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector was driven by structural reforms,political stability and significant economic growth.Against this background,this study investigates the loan growth and risk-taking behavior of the banks during the expansionary periods of lending.Method:This study used dynamic two-step system generalized method of moment’s estimation technique,based on data taken from 32 banks in Pakistan over 2006-2014.Result:Loan growth has a significant effect on bank-specific and macroeconomicspecific variables.Loan growth in the previous year raises non-performing loans and decreases the solvency of banks with a time lag of many years.The driving force behind this phenomenon is weak prudential regulation among competitors,the asymmetric information of the borrowers,and,most importantly,that banks underestimate the risk of lending during credit booms.Conclusion:More regulatory measures are required to ensure a strong financial system when the volume of non-performing loan grows significantly.An increase in the capital requirement policy for rapidly growing banks is also needed because the problem of abnormal loan growth cannot be detected at the current time.At the same time,strong supervision is necessary to avoid the adverse consequences of borrower selection.展开更多
This paper describes the development of a knowledgebased system (KBS) for determining whether or not, and under what conditions, a bank Ioan officer should grant a business loan to a company. The prototype system deve...This paper describes the development of a knowledgebased system (KBS) for determining whether or not, and under what conditions, a bank Ioan officer should grant a business loan to a company. The prototype system developed focuses on what is bank loans risks management, how to prevent risk by the analysis of the ability of paying back loans. The paper makes the structural analysis involved in the system's decision situation, the structured situation diagram or model, dependency diagram and the document needed by the KBS prototype system thus are developed. Through testing the samples from loan business, the quality for the analysis of the ability of paying back loans can be effectively evaluated by the KBS prototype system.展开更多
In this study,we use bank loan information to construct proxies for corporate transparency and examine whether these measures reflect information asymmetry in the stock market.Our analysis is based on a novel dataset ...In this study,we use bank loan information to construct proxies for corporate transparency and examine whether these measures reflect information asymmetry in the stock market.Our analysis is based on a novel dataset of stock transactions and bank loans of all publicly listed firms on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange,covering January 2008 to June 2013.We find that firms with outstanding loans have a lower level of information asymmetry in the stock market,whereas firms with defaulted loans have a higher level of asymmetry.Further evidence demonstrates that the effect of loan default on information asymmetry in the stock market is more pronounced when these loans are borrowed from joint-equity commercial banks or multiple banks and when the default occurs under inactive market conditions.Our results remain robust to a series of endogeneity and sensitivity tests and provide suggestive evidence of a close connection between the credit loan and stock markets.展开更多
文摘The progress of the World Bank loaned TB control project implemented from the second quarter of 1991 to the fourth quarter of 1993 was reported in this paper. In the past three years, 737 counties of the 12 provinces with the popula-
文摘Trend with an increase to EUR l67 mn(compared with minus EUR122.8 mn in 2023).Liquid assets decreased by 38.2 percent compared to December 3l,2023,to a level of EUR 451.7 mn as of December 31,2024,mainly dueto the repayment of private placements and other loans and borrowings.
文摘Banks rely on soft information when assessing loan applications,making it crucial to evaluate the trustworthiness of potential borrowers in order to set loan conditions,even in a legal environment where contractual rights are straightforwardly enforced.Given the common belief that certain personality traits—such as trustworthiness,reliability,loyalty,thriftiness,and stinginess—are more often linked to conservatives(Republicans)than to liberals(Democrats),we investigate whether companies with conservative chief executive officers(CEOs)secure more advantageous loan terms compared to others.Our findings indicate that firms with conservative CEOs are able to negotiate bank loans with lower interest spreads and upfront fees.While we do not observe a direct impact of CEO overconfidence on loan pricing,we reveal that the combined influence of CEO conservatism and overconfidence contributes to our primary findings.Additionally,we discovered that conservative CEOs tend to receive more favorable non-price conditions(fewer covenants)and are less inclined to offer collateral.
基金Research on the Development and Supervision of Small Loan Industry in Hainan Free Trade Port(Hnky2024-65)。
文摘In recent years,the microloan industry has faced unprecedented challenges under strict regulatory policies.The adjustment of regulatory policies,such as raising the entry threshold and strengthening risk management,has significantly increased the compliance cost of small loan companies and limited their business operations.The industry faces major challenges such as narrow funding sources,increased difficulty in risk control,and intensified market competition.In response to these challenges,the microfinance industry actively explores the path of transformation and innovation,including the innovation of business models,the deepening of science and technology application,and the construction of cooperation and win-win mechanisms.At the same time,strengthening internal compliance management,actively responding to regulatory policy changes,and improving the level of industry self-discipline have become the key to the development of industry compliance.This paper deeply analyzes the development of the microfinance industry under strict supervision and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
基金supported by the Sichuan Science and Technology Program(2024YFHZ0161).
文摘Decentralized finance(DeFi)has revolutionized traditional financial paradigms by enabling innovative,permissionless financial transactions.Among these,flash loans represent a significant breakthrough,offering rapid liquidity without collateral requirements.However,the very features that make flash loans appealing also expose DeFi ecosystems to severe security threats.This paper presents a systematic analysis of flash loan attack methodologies,their implications,and potential countermeasures.We formalize the problem via a game-theoretic model,delineating the interactions between malicious actors and security mechanisms.Through detailed case studies of major flash loan attacks,we illustrate common exploit strategies and vulnerabilities within smart contracts.Furthermore,we propose a comprehensive,multilayered security framework that integrates real-time anomaly detection,enhanced smart contract verification,decentralized governance improvements,and cross-platform intelligence sharing.Empirical analysis leveraging blockchain security datasets underscores the viability of these mitigative measures.Our findings contribute to the broader discourse on DeFi security by providing a structured approach to mitigating the systemic risks associated with flash loans,thereby enhancing the resilience of decentralized financial systems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant No.72102187,72102197]the General Program of Soft Science Research Project for Chengdu Science and Technology Bureau[Grant No.2025-RK00-00076-ZF]Project of the Center for Systems Science and Enterprise Development,a Key Re‐search Base for Social Sciences in Sichuan Province[Grant No.Xq24C09]and the Chengdu High-Quality Development Research Cen‐ter Project[Grant No.yb2024103].
文摘This study examines the impact of banks’environmental,social,and governance(ESG)disclosure assurance(BEDA)on borrowing enterprises’ESG performance to investigate China’s bank-enterprise loan relationships.Using manually collected bank loan relationship data and financial data of Chinese listed companies from 2010 to 2021,our findings reveal that BEDA significantly enhances borrowers’ESG performance.Moreover,this effect is more pronounced when banks have a higher information demand,better internal controls,and share auditors with borrowers;when borrowers operate in environmentally sensitive industries,and in the period following the Paris Agreement signing.Among the individual ESG subcategories,the impact of BEDA on borrowers’ESG performance is primarily reflected in environmental(E)and social(S)considerations.Finally,we do not find that BEDA significantly suppresses banks’greenwashing.These findings indicate that BEDA has an informational or advisory influence on banks’ESG governance rather than a supervisory role at this stage of sustainability reporting development.This study suggests that policymakers should guide BEDA’s evolution from a passive information tool to a proactive governance tool,facilitating enterprises in achieving sub‐stantive ESG transformations while reducing systemic greenwashing risks.
文摘Based on the redefinition of Chinese loan words and corresponding types of Chinese loan words, this article makes an initiative hypothesis that nowadays the ideographic trend of Chinese loan words is being hastened to a greater degree than before.Depending on the Prototype Models Theory for the types of Chinese loan words, a comprehensive analysis of this trend is made in four aspects:the transfer from transliteration loans to loan translation;the ideographic trend of transliteration loans;the full ideograph of shift loan words;word-for-word translation of loan words.
文摘The development of China has tremendously enhanced the intercultural communication among various nations and ethnic groups. As a result, more and more words are borrowed from English into Chinese to express those western-oriented objects,concepts, values, etc. This paper focuses on English loan words and their impact on Chinese. First, their classification will be presented; then, this paper will elaborate on the main characteristics of them; at last, their lexical as well as cultural impact on Chinese are revealed. Overall, it aims at proving that English loan words help promote the development and innovation of the Chinese language and enhance the performance of different language learners thus facilitating international exchange and crosscultural communication.
文摘Over the past 10 years,crowdfunding,which allows a large number of individuals to collectively finance a new business venture through a technology platform,has risen rapidly as a popular way of financing a wide range of activities including business ventures,personal loans,and charity projects.The modern crowdfunding business mode consists of three types of players:the project proposers who provide the original idea/blueprint/project that requires external finance,potential investors who are interested in the idea,and an internet platform that brings all parties alongside to kick-start the new business venture.
文摘Background:This study examined the determinants of loan repayment among microcredit finance group members in Delta State,Nigeria.Methods:To capture the determinants of loan repayment in the study area,a total of 48 microcredit groups and 300 microcredit group members were randomly selected through a multi-stage random sampling technique.The study data was collected by questionnaire.Statistical tools such as simple descriptive statistics(table,frequency,percentage and mean)and a multiple regression analysis were used to examine the data.Results:The results indicate that females form a greater proportion of the study area microcredit group members at 70%,moreover 73%of the respondents have a household size of between 6 to 10 persons.These findings revealed that the groups had a mean 8 years of existence with a mean membership size of 13 persons.Further,an average interest rate of 40 percent per annum was charged on loans,with mean loan duration of 6 months.The regression’s result demonstrated that the determinants of the group member’s loan repayment included the group member’s age,household size,house income,and educational level,the amount of credit received,length of stay in their locality,distance to the credit source,supervision and disbursement lag.Conclusion:Therefore it was suggested that the various agricultural microcredit finance groups should carefully examine the significant determinants of loan repayment for the approach’s viability and sustainability and for optimum repayment performance.
文摘During the financial crisis, the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments was identified as a weakness in existing incurred loss model of impairment stated by International Accounting Standards （IAS） 39, because it is believed that this delay might generate pro-cyclical effects. In response to the recommendations of G20, Financial Crisis Advisory Group （FCAG）, and other international bodies, the International Accounting Standards Board （IASB） has undertaken, since 2009, as a part of the project to replace IAS 39, a project （partially shared with Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB）） aimed at introducing an expected loss model of impairment. Within the scope of this subset project, the IASB has previously issued two exposure documents proposing models to account for expected credit losses： an exposure draft （ED） Financial Instrument： Amortized Cost and Impairment, published in November 2009, and a supplementary document （SD） Financial Instrument： Impairment, published jointly with the FASB in January 2011. However, neither of the two proposals received strong support from interested parties. Recently, the IASB, after the FASB＇s decision to withdraw from the joint project and to develop a separate expected credit loss model based on a single measurement approach consisting in the sole recognition of lifetime expected credit losses, published a third proposal--Ahe so-called expected credit losses model （ED/2013/3 Financial Instruments： Expected Credit Losses）.
基金support from the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2020S1A5A8044620).
文摘Central bank digital currencies(CBDCs),which are legal tenders in digital form,are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy.In addition,these currencies may also reduce consumers’need for conventional demand deposits,which,in turn,increases banks’loan provision costs because deposits require higher rates of return.We use a microeconomic banking model to investigate the effects of introducing an economy-wide,account-type CBDC on a bank’s loan supply and its failure risk.Given that a CBDC is expected to lower the cost of liquidity circulation and become a strong substitute for demand deposits,both the loan supply and the bank failure risk increase.These increases are countered by subsequent increases in the rates of return on term deposits and loans,which,in turn,reduce the loan supply and thus bank failure risk.These offsetting forces lead to no significant change in banking,as long as the rate of return on loans is below a certain threshold.However,once the rate is above the threshold,bank failure risk increases,thereby undermining banking stability.The problem is more pronounced when the degree of pass-through of funding costs to the loan rate is high and the profitability of a successful project is low.Our results imply that central banks wishing to introduce an economy-wide,account-type CBDC should first monitor yields on bank loans and consider policy measures that induce banks to maintain adequate liquidity reserve levels.
文摘This study investigates the need for credit supervision as conducted by on-site banking supervisors.It builds on a real bank on-site credit examination to compare the performance of a hypothetical self-supervision approach,in which banks themselves assess their loan portfolios without external intervention,with the on-site banking supervision approach of the Central Bank of Brazil.The experiment develops two machine learning classification models:the first model is based on good and bad ratings informed by banks,and the second model is based on past on-site credit portfolio examinations conducted by banking supervision.The findings show that the overall performance of the on-site supervision approach is consistently higher than the performance of the self-supervision approach,justifying the need for on-site credit portfolio examination as conducted by the Central Bank.
文摘Giving loans and issuing credit cards are two of the main concerns of banks in that they include the risks of non-payment.According to the Basel 2 guidelines,banks need to develop their own credit risk assessment systems.Some banks have such systems;nevertheless they have lost a large amount of money simply because the models they used failed to accurately predict customers’defaults.Traditionally,banks have used static models with demographic or static factors to model credit risk patterns.However,economic factors are not independent of political fluctuations,and as the political environment changes,the economic environment evolves with it.This has been especially evident in Iran after the 2008-2016 USA sanctions,as many previously reliable customers became unable to repay their debt(i.e.,became bad customers).Nevertheless,a dynamic model that can accommodate fluctuating politicoeconomic factors has never been developed.In this paper,we propose a model that can accommodate factors associated with politico-economic crises.Human judgement is removed from the customer evaluation process.We used a fuzzy inference system to create a rule base using a set of uncertainty predictors.First,we train an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS)using monthly data from a customer profile dataset.Then,using the newly defined factors and their underlying rules,a second round of assessment begins in a fuzzy inference system.Thus,we present a model that is both more flexible to politico-economic factors and can yield results that are max compatible with real-life situations.Comparison between the prediction made by proposed model and a real non-performing loan indicates little difference between them.Credit risk specialists also approve the results.The major innovation of this research is producing a table of bad customers on a monthly basis and creating a dynamic model based on the table.The latest created model is used for assessing customers henceforth,so the whole process of customer assessment need not be repeated.We assert that this model is a good substitute for the static models currently in use as it can outperform traditional models,especially in the face of economic crisis.
文摘Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector was driven by structural reforms,political stability and significant economic growth.Against this background,this study investigates the loan growth and risk-taking behavior of the banks during the expansionary periods of lending.Method:This study used dynamic two-step system generalized method of moment’s estimation technique,based on data taken from 32 banks in Pakistan over 2006-2014.Result:Loan growth has a significant effect on bank-specific and macroeconomicspecific variables.Loan growth in the previous year raises non-performing loans and decreases the solvency of banks with a time lag of many years.The driving force behind this phenomenon is weak prudential regulation among competitors,the asymmetric information of the borrowers,and,most importantly,that banks underestimate the risk of lending during credit booms.Conclusion:More regulatory measures are required to ensure a strong financial system when the volume of non-performing loan grows significantly.An increase in the capital requirement policy for rapidly growing banks is also needed because the problem of abnormal loan growth cannot be detected at the current time.At the same time,strong supervision is necessary to avoid the adverse consequences of borrower selection.
基金Supported by the National Science Foundation of China(No.7977086)
文摘This paper describes the development of a knowledgebased system (KBS) for determining whether or not, and under what conditions, a bank Ioan officer should grant a business loan to a company. The prototype system developed focuses on what is bank loans risks management, how to prevent risk by the analysis of the ability of paying back loans. The paper makes the structural analysis involved in the system's decision situation, the structured situation diagram or model, dependency diagram and the document needed by the KBS prototype system thus are developed. Through testing the samples from loan business, the quality for the analysis of the ability of paying back loans can be effectively evaluated by the KBS prototype system.
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72103017,72192800)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(ZY2130)+1 种基金Funds for First-class Discipline Construction(XK1802-5)“the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities”in UIBE(17DQ08).
文摘In this study,we use bank loan information to construct proxies for corporate transparency and examine whether these measures reflect information asymmetry in the stock market.Our analysis is based on a novel dataset of stock transactions and bank loans of all publicly listed firms on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange,covering January 2008 to June 2013.We find that firms with outstanding loans have a lower level of information asymmetry in the stock market,whereas firms with defaulted loans have a higher level of asymmetry.Further evidence demonstrates that the effect of loan default on information asymmetry in the stock market is more pronounced when these loans are borrowed from joint-equity commercial banks or multiple banks and when the default occurs under inactive market conditions.Our results remain robust to a series of endogeneity and sensitivity tests and provide suggestive evidence of a close connection between the credit loan and stock markets.
