Given the existence of real estate market bubbles and risks arising from high government debt,countries are faced with the challenge of preventing systemic risks.This study investigates the macroeconomic dynamics of t...Given the existence of real estate market bubbles and risks arising from high government debt,countries are faced with the challenge of preventing systemic risks.This study investigates the macroeconomic dynamics of the real estate market and local government debt risk from the perspective of liquidity constraints.We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with real estate and local government debt risk based on the New Keynesian-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model(NK-DSGE)model to investigate the transmission path of local government debt risk under real estate regulation.In addition,we analyze the risk transmission between the real estate market and local government under different tax systems and investigate the shock to household welfare from a local government debt default.The results show monetary policy can effectively control the scale of local government debt to reduce default risk.An increase in property taxes that restrains housing demand can effectively regulate the real estate market.Although reducing taxes can increase macroeconomic output,reducing tax rates on consumption,capital,and labor weakens the liquidity of household assets.Further,lowering taxes increases local government default risk,which reduces household welfare and makes it more difficult for local governments to deleverage.Our findings provide important insights for countries seeking an effective real estate regulation mechanism to curb local government default risk.展开更多
In this article, the authors consider the optimal portfolio on tracking the expected wealth process with liquidity constraints. The constrained optimal portfolio is first formulated as minimizing the cumulate variance...In this article, the authors consider the optimal portfolio on tracking the expected wealth process with liquidity constraints. The constrained optimal portfolio is first formulated as minimizing the cumulate variance between the wealth process and the expected wealth process. Then, the dynamic programming methodology is applied to reduce the whole problem to solving the Hamilton-Jacobi--Bellman equation coupled with the liquidity constraint, and the method of Lagrange multiplier is applied to handle the constraint. Finally, a numerical method is proposed to solve the constrained HJB equation and the constrained optimal strategy. Especially, the explicit solution to this optimal problem is derived when there is no liquidity constraint.展开更多
Research on government procurement emphasizes its positive impacts,while paying insufficient attention to the risks posed by government arrears.We show that the implementation of China’s Special Supervision Action fo...Research on government procurement emphasizes its positive impacts,while paying insufficient attention to the risks posed by government arrears.We show that the implementation of China’s Special Supervision Action for Repaying Government Arrears significantly enhances employee treatment,particularly safety management and employee incentives,through monetary compensation,welfare,social security expenditure and investment in skilled human capital.The Special Supervision Action improves employee treatment by alleviating liquidity constraints and enhancing CEO confidence,which in turn boost firm productivity and performance.Cross-sectional tests indicate that the number of nearby bank branches,political connections,financial health,demand for human capital and external job opportunities affect these relationships.Our findings highlight the influence of government arrears repayment on corporate human capital investment.展开更多
We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on household consumption in China.Using household survey data,we find that the proportion of liquidity-constrained households increases quickly,but the constraint lev...We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on household consumption in China.Using household survey data,we find that the proportion of liquidity-constrained households increases quickly,but the constraint levels vary across distinct groups.We build a heterogeneous agent life cycle incomplete market model to analyze the long-run and short-run effects of the pandemic shock.The quantitative results reveal a slow recovery of consumption due to three reasons:hiking unemployment rate,declining labor productivity,and worsening income stability.The hiking unemployment rate plays the key role in households,consumption reduction since it simultaneously leads to a negative income effect and upsurging precautionary saving motives.Our paper highlights the importance of maintaining a stable labor market for faster recovery.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.72271135,72141304,71901130)National Social Science Fund of China(22&ZD117)+3 种基金Laboratory of Computation and Analytics of Complex Management Systems(Tianjin University)Special Funds for Taishan Scholars(tsqn202211120)2024 Qingdao Finance Society Key Project2024 Qingdao Social Science Planning Project.
文摘Given the existence of real estate market bubbles and risks arising from high government debt,countries are faced with the challenge of preventing systemic risks.This study investigates the macroeconomic dynamics of the real estate market and local government debt risk from the perspective of liquidity constraints.We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with real estate and local government debt risk based on the New Keynesian-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model(NK-DSGE)model to investigate the transmission path of local government debt risk under real estate regulation.In addition,we analyze the risk transmission between the real estate market and local government under different tax systems and investigate the shock to household welfare from a local government debt default.The results show monetary policy can effectively control the scale of local government debt to reduce default risk.An increase in property taxes that restrains housing demand can effectively regulate the real estate market.Although reducing taxes can increase macroeconomic output,reducing tax rates on consumption,capital,and labor weakens the liquidity of household assets.Further,lowering taxes increases local government default risk,which reduces household welfare and makes it more difficult for local governments to deleverage.Our findings provide important insights for countries seeking an effective real estate regulation mechanism to curb local government default risk.
基金Supported in part by the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China (10671149)the Ministry of Education of China (NCET-04-0667)
文摘In this article, the authors consider the optimal portfolio on tracking the expected wealth process with liquidity constraints. The constrained optimal portfolio is first formulated as minimizing the cumulate variance between the wealth process and the expected wealth process. Then, the dynamic programming methodology is applied to reduce the whole problem to solving the Hamilton-Jacobi--Bellman equation coupled with the liquidity constraint, and the method of Lagrange multiplier is applied to handle the constraint. Finally, a numerical method is proposed to solve the constrained HJB equation and the constrained optimal strategy. Especially, the explicit solution to this optimal problem is derived when there is no liquidity constraint.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72472158,72002219)the Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China(21ZDA010)+1 种基金financial support from the Innovation and Talen t Base for Digital Technology and Finance(B21038)“the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities”,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law(2722024EJ011).
文摘Research on government procurement emphasizes its positive impacts,while paying insufficient attention to the risks posed by government arrears.We show that the implementation of China’s Special Supervision Action for Repaying Government Arrears significantly enhances employee treatment,particularly safety management and employee incentives,through monetary compensation,welfare,social security expenditure and investment in skilled human capital.The Special Supervision Action improves employee treatment by alleviating liquidity constraints and enhancing CEO confidence,which in turn boost firm productivity and performance.Cross-sectional tests indicate that the number of nearby bank branches,political connections,financial health,demand for human capital and external job opportunities affect these relationships.Our findings highlight the influence of government arrears repayment on corporate human capital investment.
基金the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.7180311&No.71874105)the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71850002).
文摘We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on household consumption in China.Using household survey data,we find that the proportion of liquidity-constrained households increases quickly,but the constraint levels vary across distinct groups.We build a heterogeneous agent life cycle incomplete market model to analyze the long-run and short-run effects of the pandemic shock.The quantitative results reveal a slow recovery of consumption due to three reasons:hiking unemployment rate,declining labor productivity,and worsening income stability.The hiking unemployment rate plays the key role in households,consumption reduction since it simultaneously leads to a negative income effect and upsurging precautionary saving motives.Our paper highlights the importance of maintaining a stable labor market for faster recovery.
