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The_(0)S_(0)fundamental mode excited by Sumatra-Andaman earthquake:Parameters assessment using the maximum likelihood method
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作者 Mikhail Vinogradov Vadim Milyukov 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 2026年第2期259-266,共8页
This paper presents new estimations for all parameters(amplitude,frequency,quality factor,and initial phase)of the_(0)S_(0)Earth fundamental mode,which was triggered by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake with a magni... This paper presents new estimations for all parameters(amplitude,frequency,quality factor,and initial phase)of the_(0)S_(0)Earth fundamental mode,which was triggered by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw9.1.Sixteen records from the IGETS superconducting gravimeters have been analyzed.Using the maximum likelihood method algorithm,frequency,initial phase,and amplitude estimates have been acquired with remarkable accuracy.The values of frequency(814.6568±0.0002μHz)and quality factor(5455±17)obtained in this study differ slightly from those of the PREM model,and the amplitude variations qualitatively correspond to those of the SKS12WM13model.The estimated time delay between the onset of the earthquake and the excitation of the mode(290 s)is consistent with the moment tensor analysis from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center. 展开更多
关键词 Free oscillations of the Earth Normal mode Radial mode0S0 Superconducting gravimeter Sumatra-Andaman earthquake Lateral heterogeneities Maximal likelihood method
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基于Cross-Validation的小波自适应去噪方法 被引量:5
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作者 黄文清 戴瑜兴 李加升 《湖南大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2008年第11期40-43,共4页
小波去噪算法中,阈值的选择非常关键.提出一种自适应阈值选择算法.该算法先通过Cross-Validation方法将噪声干扰信号分成两个子信号,一个用于阈值处理,一个用作参考信号;再采用最深梯度法来寻求一个最优去噪阈值.仿真和实验结果表明:在... 小波去噪算法中,阈值的选择非常关键.提出一种自适应阈值选择算法.该算法先通过Cross-Validation方法将噪声干扰信号分成两个子信号,一个用于阈值处理,一个用作参考信号;再采用最深梯度法来寻求一个最优去噪阈值.仿真和实验结果表明:在均方误差意义上,所提算法去噪效果优于Donoho等提出的VisuShrink和SureShrink两种去噪算法,且不需要带噪信号的任何'先验信息',适应于实际信号去噪处理. 展开更多
关键词 小波变换 cross-validation 自适应滤波 阈值
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Cross-Validation, Shrinkage and Variable Selection in Linear Regression Revisited 被引量:3
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作者 Hans C. van Houwelingen Willi Sauerbrei 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2013年第2期79-102,共24页
In deriving a regression model analysts often have to use variable selection, despite of problems introduced by data- dependent model building. Resampling approaches are proposed to handle some of the critical issues.... In deriving a regression model analysts often have to use variable selection, despite of problems introduced by data- dependent model building. Resampling approaches are proposed to handle some of the critical issues. In order to assess and compare several strategies, we will conduct a simulation study with 15 predictors and a complex correlation structure in the linear regression model. Using sample sizes of 100 and 400 and estimates of the residual variance corresponding to R2 of 0.50 and 0.71, we consider 4 scenarios with varying amount of information. We also consider two examples with 24 and 13 predictors, respectively. We will discuss the value of cross-validation, shrinkage and backward elimination (BE) with varying significance level. We will assess whether 2-step approaches using global or parameterwise shrinkage (PWSF) can improve selected models and will compare results to models derived with the LASSO procedure. Beside of MSE we will use model sparsity and further criteria for model assessment. The amount of information in the data has an influence on the selected models and the comparison of the procedures. None of the approaches was best in all scenarios. The performance of backward elimination with a suitably chosen significance level was not worse compared to the LASSO and BE models selected were much sparser, an important advantage for interpretation and transportability. Compared to global shrinkage, PWSF had better performance. Provided that the amount of information is not too small, we conclude that BE followed by PWSF is a suitable approach when variable selection is a key part of data analysis. 展开更多
关键词 cross-validation LASSO SHRINKAGE SIMULATION STUDY VARIABLE SELECTION
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Classification of aviation incident causes using LGBM with improved cross-validation 被引量:1
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作者 NI Xiaomei WANG Huawei +1 位作者 CHEN Lingzi LIN Ruiguan 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期396-405,共10页
Aviation accidents are currently one of the leading causes of significant injuries and deaths worldwide. This entices researchers to investigate aircraft safety using data analysis approaches based on an advanced mach... Aviation accidents are currently one of the leading causes of significant injuries and deaths worldwide. This entices researchers to investigate aircraft safety using data analysis approaches based on an advanced machine learning algorithm.To assess aviation safety and identify the causes of incidents, a classification model with light gradient boosting machine (LGBM)based on the aviation safety reporting system (ASRS) has been developed. It is improved by k-fold cross-validation with hybrid sampling model (HSCV), which may boost classification performance and maintain data balance. The results show that employing the LGBM-HSCV model can significantly improve accuracy while alleviating data imbalance. Vertical comparison with other cross-validation (CV) methods and lateral comparison with different fold times comprise the comparative approach. Aside from the comparison, two further CV approaches based on the improved method in this study are discussed:one with a different sampling and folding order, and the other with more CV. According to the assessment indices with different methods, the LGBMHSCV model proposed here is effective at detecting incident causes. The improved model for imbalanced data categorization proposed may serve as a point of reference for similar data processing, and the model’s accurate identification of civil aviation incident causes can assist to improve civil aviation safety. 展开更多
关键词 aviation safety imbalance data light gradient boosting machine(LGBM) cross-validation(CV)
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ON THE CONSISTENCY OF CROSS-VALIDATIONIN NONLINEAR WAVELET REGRESSION ESTIMATION
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作者 张双林 郑忠国 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2000年第1期1-11,共11页
For the nonparametric regression model Y-ni = g(x(ni)) + epsilon(ni)i = 1, ..., n, with regularly spaced nonrandom design, the authors study the behavior of the nonlinear wavelet estimator of g(x). When the threshold ... For the nonparametric regression model Y-ni = g(x(ni)) + epsilon(ni)i = 1, ..., n, with regularly spaced nonrandom design, the authors study the behavior of the nonlinear wavelet estimator of g(x). When the threshold and truncation parameters are chosen by cross-validation on the everage squared error, strong consistency for the case of dyadic sample size and moment consistency for arbitrary sample size are established under some regular conditions. 展开更多
关键词 CONSISTENCY cross-validation nonparametric regression THRESHOLD TRUNCATION wavelet estimator
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Using Multiple Risk Factors and Generalized Linear Mixed Models with 5-Fold Cross-Validation Strategy for Optimal Carotid Plaque Progression Prediction
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作者 Qingyu Wang Dalin Tang +5 位作者 Liang Wang Gador Canton Zheyang Wu Thomas SHatsukami Kristen L Billiar Chun Yuan 《医用生物力学》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第A01期74-75,共2页
Background Cardiovascular diseases are closely linked to atherosclerotic plaque development and rupture.Plaque progression prediction is of fundamental significance to cardiovascular research and disease diagnosis,pre... Background Cardiovascular diseases are closely linked to atherosclerotic plaque development and rupture.Plaque progression prediction is of fundamental significance to cardiovascular research and disease diagnosis,prevention,and treatment.Generalized linear mixed models(GLMM)is an extension of linear model for categorical responses while considering the correlation among observations.Methods Magnetic resonance image(MRI)data of carotid atheroscleroticplaques were acquired from 20 patients with consent obtained and 3D thin-layer models were constructed to calculate plaque stress and strain for plaque progression prediction.Data for ten morphological and biomechanical risk factors included wall thickness(WT),lipid percent(LP),minimum cap thickness(MinCT),plaque area(PA),plaque burden(PB),lumen area(LA),maximum plaque wall stress(MPWS),maximum plaque wall strain(MPWSn),average plaque wall stress(APWS),and average plaque wall strain(APWSn)were extracted from all slices for analysis.Wall thickness increase(WTI),plaque burden increase(PBI)and plaque area increase(PAI) were chosen as three measures for plaque progression.Generalized linear mixed models(GLMM)with 5-fold cross-validation strategy were used to calculate prediction accuracy for each predictor and identify optimal predictor with the highest prediction accuracy defined as sum of sensitivity and specificity.All 201 MRI slices were randomly divided into 4 training subgroups and 1 verification subgroup.The training subgroups were used for model fitting,and the verification subgroup was used to estimate the model.All combinations(total1023)of 10 risk factors were feed to GLMM and the prediction accuracy of each predictor were selected from the point on the ROC(receiver operating characteristic)curve with the highest sum of specificity and sensitivity.Results LA was the best single predictor for PBI with the highest prediction accuracy(1.360 1),and the area under of the ROC curve(AUC)is0.654 0,followed by APWSn(1.336 3)with AUC=0.6342.The optimal predictor among all possible combinations for PBI was the combination of LA,PA,LP,WT,MPWS and MPWSn with prediction accuracy=1.414 6(AUC=0.715 8).LA was once again the best single predictor for PAI with the highest prediction accuracy(1.184 6)with AUC=0.606 4,followed by MPWSn(1. 183 2)with AUC=0.6084.The combination of PA,PB,WT,MPWS,MPWSn and APWSn gave the best prediction accuracy(1.302 5)for PAI,and the AUC value is 0.6657.PA was the best single predictor for WTI with highest prediction accuracy(1.288 7)with AUC=0.641 5,followed by WT(1.254 0),with AUC=0.6097.The combination of PA,PB,WT,LP,MinCT,MPWS and MPWS was the best predictor for WTI with prediction accuracy as 1.314 0,with AUC=0.6552.This indicated that PBI was a more predictable measure than WTI and PAI. The combinational predictors improved prediction accuracy by 9.95%,4.01%and 1.96%over the best single predictors for PAI,PBI and WTI(AUC values improved by9.78%,9.45%,and 2.14%),respectively.Conclusions The use of GLMM with 5-fold cross-validation strategy combining both morphological and biomechanical risk factors could potentially improve the accuracy of carotid plaque progression prediction.This study suggests that a linear combination of multiple predictors can provide potential improvement to existing plaque assessment schemes. 展开更多
关键词 Multiple Risk FACTORS GENERALIZED Linear 5-Fold cross-validation STRATEGY AUC
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An Online Exploratory Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach to Adaptive Kalman Filtering 被引量:2
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作者 Jiajun Cheng Haonan Chen +2 位作者 Zhirui Xue Yulong Huang Yonggang Zhang 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 2025年第1期228-254,共27页
Over the past few decades, numerous adaptive Kalman filters(AKFs) have been proposed. However, achieving online estimation with both high estimation accuracy and fast convergence speed is challenging, especially when ... Over the past few decades, numerous adaptive Kalman filters(AKFs) have been proposed. However, achieving online estimation with both high estimation accuracy and fast convergence speed is challenging, especially when both the process noise and measurement noise covariance matrices are relatively inaccurate. Maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) possesses the potential to achieve this goal, since its theoretical accuracy is guaranteed by asymptotic optimality and the convergence speed is fast due to weak dependence on accurate state estimation.Unfortunately, the maximum likelihood cost function is so intricate that the existing MLE methods can only simply ignore all historical measurement information to achieve online estimation,which cannot adequately realize the potential of MLE. In order to design online MLE-based AKFs with high estimation accuracy and fast convergence speed, an online exploratory MLE approach is proposed, based on which a mini-batch coordinate descent noise covariance matrix estimation framework is developed. In this framework, the maximum likelihood cost function is simplified for online estimation with fewer and simpler terms which are selected in a mini-batch and calculated with a backtracking method. This maximum likelihood cost function is sidestepped and solved by exploring possible estimated noise covariance matrices adaptively while the historical measurement information is adequately utilized. Furthermore, four specific algorithms are derived under this framework to meet different practical requirements in terms of convergence speed, estimation accuracy,and calculation load. Abundant simulations and experiments are carried out to verify the validity and superiority of the proposed algorithms as compared with existing state-of-the-art AKFs. 展开更多
关键词 Adaptive Kalman filtering coordinate descent maximum likelihood estimation mini-batch optimization unknown noise covariance matrix
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Blockwise Empirical Likelihood Method for Spatial Dependent Data
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作者 TANG Jie ZOU Yunlong +1 位作者 QIN Yongsong LI Yufang 《应用数学》 北大核心 2025年第1期47-63,共17页
Existing blockwise empirical likelihood(BEL)method blocks the observations or their analogues,which is proven useful under some dependent data settings.In this paper,we introduce a new BEL(NBEL)method by blocking the ... Existing blockwise empirical likelihood(BEL)method blocks the observations or their analogues,which is proven useful under some dependent data settings.In this paper,we introduce a new BEL(NBEL)method by blocking the scoring functions under high dimensional cases.We study the construction of confidence regions for the parameters in spatial autoregressive models with spatial autoregressive disturbances(SARAR models)with high dimension of parameters by using the NBEL method.It is shown that the NBEL ratio statistics are asymptoticallyχ^(2)-type distributed,which are used to obtain the NBEL based confidence regions for the parameters in SARAR models.A simulation study is conducted to compare the performances of the NBEL and the usual EL methods. 展开更多
关键词 SARAR model Empirical likelihood Confidence region High-dimensional statistical inference
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Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of weighted exponential distribution in simple random sampling and ranked set sampling
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作者 DENG Cui-hong CHEN Wang-xue +1 位作者 ZHOU Ya-wen YANG Rui 《Applied Mathematics(A Journal of Chinese Universities)》 2025年第4期818-832,共15页
Weighted exponential distribution W ED(α,λ)with shape parameterαand scale parameterλpossesses some good properties and can be used as a good fit to survival time data compared to other distributions such as gamma,... Weighted exponential distribution W ED(α,λ)with shape parameterαand scale parameterλpossesses some good properties and can be used as a good fit to survival time data compared to other distributions such as gamma,Weibull,or generalized exponential distribution.In this article,we proved the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimator(MLE)of the parameters of W ED(α,λ)in simple random sampling(SRS)and provided explicit expressions for the Fisher information number in SRS.Moreover,we also proved the existence and uniqueness of the MLE of the parameters of W ED(α,λ)in ranked set sampling(RSS)and provided explicit expressions for the Fisher information number in RSS.Simulation studies show that these MLEs in RSS can be real competitors for those in SRS. 展开更多
关键词 simple random sampling ranked set sampling maximum likelihood estimator Fisher information number
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Vulnerable brain regions in adolescent attention deficit hyperactivity disorder:An activation likelihood estimation meta-analysis
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作者 Yan-Ping Shu Qin Zhang +4 位作者 Da Li Jiao-Ying Liu Xiao-Ming Wang Qiang He Yong-Zhe Hou 《World Journal of Psychiatry》 2025年第4期298-309,共12页
BACKGROUND Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)is a prevalent neurodevelopmental disorder in adolescents characterized by inattention,hyperactivity,and impulsivity,which impact cognitive,behavioral,and emoti... BACKGROUND Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)is a prevalent neurodevelopmental disorder in adolescents characterized by inattention,hyperactivity,and impulsivity,which impact cognitive,behavioral,and emotional functioning.Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging(rs-fMRI)provides critical insights into the functional architecture of the brain in ADHD.Despite extensive research,specific brain regions consistently affected in ADHD patients during these formative years have not been comprehensively delineated.AIM To identify consistent vulnerable brain regions in adolescent ADHD patients using rs-fMRI and activation likelihood estimation(ALE)meta-analysis.METHODS We conducted a comprehensive literature search up to August 31,2024,to identify studies investigating functional brain alterations in adolescents with ADHD.We utilized regional homogeneity(ReHo),amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations(ALFF),dynamic ALFF(dALFF)and fractional ALFF(fALFF)analyses.We compared the regions of aberrant spontaneous neural activity in adolescents with ADHD with those in healthy controls(HCs)using ALE.RESULTS Fifteen studies(468 adolescent ADHD patients and 466 HCs)were included.Combining the ReHo and ALFF/fALFF/dALFF data,the results revealed increased activity in the right lingual gyrus[LING,Brodmann Area(BA)18],left LING(BA 18),and right cuneus(CUN,BA 23)in adolescent ADHD patients compared with HCs(voxel size:592-32 mm³,P<0.05).Decreased activity was observed in the left medial frontal gyrus(MFG,BA 9)and left precuneus(PCUN,BA 31)in adolescent ADHD patients compared with HCs(voxel size:960-456 mm³,P<0.05).Jackknife sensitivity analyses demonstrated robust reproducibility in 11 of the 13 tests for the right LING,left LING,and right CUN and in 11 of the 14 tests for the left MFG and left PCUN.CONCLUSION We identified specific brain regions with both increased and decreased activity in adolescent ADHD patients,enhancing our understanding of the neural alterations that occur during this pivotal stage of development. 展开更多
关键词 Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder ADOLESCENT Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging Activation likelihood estimation META-ANALYSIS Medial frontal gyrus PRECUNEUS Cuneus Lingual gyrus
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采用似然比检测的电动车锂离子电池传感器故障检测方法
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作者 刘盼芝 巫春玲 +1 位作者 李艳波 郭国防 《西安交通大学学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期211-222,共12页
为了降低电池管理系统中传感器故障对电动汽车性能的影响,设计了一种采用似然比检测的故障诊断方法。首先,建立电池等效电路模型,并进行参数辨识,使用扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)算法,对所建立的电池模型进行状态估计;接着,根据状态估计结果计... 为了降低电池管理系统中传感器故障对电动汽车性能的影响,设计了一种采用似然比检测的故障诊断方法。首先,建立电池等效电路模型,并进行参数辨识,使用扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)算法,对所建立的电池模型进行状态估计;接着,根据状态估计结果计算电池端电压残差,并结合电池荷电状态估计,使用似然比检测方法处理残差数据,对电池传感器故障进行诊断,提高故障检测方法的效率;最后,使用电池工况实验数据验证算法的有效性和适应性。结果表明,设计的方法能及时准确地检测到2种传感器故障。对于给定的测试条件,电压故障时根据端电压残差检测所需诊断时间在20 s内;根据荷电状态(SOC)残差检测所需诊断时间在100 s内;电流故障时根据端电压残差检测所需诊断时间在20 s内;根据SOC残差检测所需诊断时间在400 s内。同样测试条件下,采用传统的累积和方法(CUSUM)的诊断时间分别是20 s内、445 s以上、150 s以上和1000 s以上,可见设计的方法可以明显缩短诊断时间。同时,该方法对故障有较好的敏感性,可以检测传感器小幅度故障,当电压故障信号为正常电压1%时仍可以实现故障检测。另外,当电压和电流传感器的发生多次故障时,该方法仍能实现故障检测目标。 展开更多
关键词 电池模型 似然比检测 电池传感器故障 故障检测 残差
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双函数系数ARCH-M模型的正交加权经验似然检验
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作者 赵培信 张晓蔓 姜茜 《应用概率统计》 北大核心 2026年第1期104-116,共13页
本文考虑一类双函数系数ARCH-M模型的检验问题,通过构造正交加权的辅助随机向量,提出了一种基于正交加权的经验似然检验方法.在一些正则条件下,从理论上证明了所构造的经验对数似然比检验统计量渐近服从中心卡方分布,进而得到了一定置... 本文考虑一类双函数系数ARCH-M模型的检验问题,通过构造正交加权的辅助随机向量,提出了一种基于正交加权的经验似然检验方法.在一些正则条件下,从理论上证明了所构造的经验对数似然比检验统计量渐近服从中心卡方分布,进而得到了一定置信水平的拒绝域,最后通过数值模拟讨论了其检验功效. 展开更多
关键词 函数系数模型 ARCH-M模型 假设检验 经验似然
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数据的概率建模综述:从传统到现代
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作者 卢宏涛 胡宇庭 《数据采集与处理》 北大核心 2026年第2期461-488,共28页
人工智能技术发展日新月异,各类模型、算法及其应用领域受到较大关注。数据的概率建模是人工智能和机器学习的核心问题,但是其关注度普遍较低。这一方面是由于概率建模理论抽象,另一方面是相关综述较少。然而人工智能领域的原创性突破... 人工智能技术发展日新月异,各类模型、算法及其应用领域受到较大关注。数据的概率建模是人工智能和机器学习的核心问题,但是其关注度普遍较低。这一方面是由于概率建模理论抽象,另一方面是相关综述较少。然而人工智能领域的原创性突破大多都与数据概率建模有关,因此本文以数据的概率建模为主线,对机器学习中从传统到现代的主流方法进行综述,从高斯混合模型、期望最大化(Expectation-maximization,EM)算法和变分推理等传统方法到变分自编码器、生成对抗网、分数匹配、扩散模型、归一化流和流匹配等现代方法都统一到数据的概率建模框架下。这些方法虽然提出的时间跨度很大,解决的问题有所不同,但它们都可以解释为最大似然估计或分数匹配框架,区别在于对数据及模型的假设不同。因此,本文构建了一种对从传统机器学习到最新生成模型的统一理解方式,将概率建模方法分为基于最大似然估计的方法、基于分数匹配的方法和基于流的方法,揭示了它们之间的内在联系,为人工智能生成方法的进一步发展提供了理论基础方面的解读。 展开更多
关键词 概率建模 最大似然估计 分数匹配 扩散模型 流匹配 生成模型
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泾河油田长8致密油藏地震Likelihood裂缝预测 被引量:8
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作者 刘忠群 秦锐 +1 位作者 郝前勇 吴锦伟 《成都理工大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2016年第5期609-616,共8页
预测鄂尔多斯盆地西南部泾河油田长8地层致密油藏裂缝发育特征。针对研究区裂缝具有小规模、弱信息、突变和线性展布发育的特点,采用Likelihood算法对裂缝进行了预测和表征。研究表明:在垂直于裂缝方位的地震响应异常最明显,在确定裂缝... 预测鄂尔多斯盆地西南部泾河油田长8地层致密油藏裂缝发育特征。针对研究区裂缝具有小规模、弱信息、突变和线性展布发育的特点,采用Likelihood算法对裂缝进行了预测和表征。研究表明:在垂直于裂缝方位的地震响应异常最明显,在确定裂缝方位和进行叠前方位数据处理的基础上采用Likelihood算法更加有效;在方位数据上提取的长8致密储层裂缝分布预测成果精度高,其发育位置及特性与实钻水平井钻遇裂缝段显示吻合度高。Likelihood算法是与研究区地质特性相匹配的地震裂缝预测技术。 展开更多
关键词 致密油藏 裂缝 各向异性 方位数据处理 likelihood算法
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酒店短视频广告诉求对广告效果的效应分析——涉入的中介作用
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作者 彭磊义 罗建基 《科技和产业》 2026年第7期274-282,共9页
作为新兴媒体形式,短视频广告因具有较高商业价值而备受各方关注。依托精细加工可能性模型,以顾客涉入为中介变量,运用结构方程模型分析酒店短视频广告诉求对广告效果的影响。结果发现:感性诉求和涉入对广告态度存在正向显著的直接影响... 作为新兴媒体形式,短视频广告因具有较高商业价值而备受各方关注。依托精细加工可能性模型,以顾客涉入为中介变量,运用结构方程模型分析酒店短视频广告诉求对广告效果的影响。结果发现:感性诉求和涉入对广告态度存在正向显著的直接影响,理性诉求和涉入对预订意图存在正向显著的直接影响;涉入发挥部分中介作用和完全中介作用;视频时长和互动指标影响在部分路径上发挥调节作用。因此,酒店可在集中情绪调动、突出产品信息品质以及聚焦社交媒体属性与用户分析等方面强化和提升短视频应用的广告效果。 展开更多
关键词 短视频广告 精细加工可能性模型 广告效果 广告诉求 涉入
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基于Fault Likelihood属性分区标定的裂缝预测与三维地质建模——以川西坳陷新场气田须二段气藏为例 被引量:9
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作者 商晓飞 王鸣川 李蒙 《东北石油大学学报》 CAS 北大核心 2022年第4期62-76,I0005,I0006,共17页
川西坳陷新场地区须家河组二段(须二段)天然裂缝发育,储层整体致密。基于Fault Likelihood(FL)属性提取、预处理,结合钻井资料揭示裂缝发育程度,通过构造单元分区进行裂缝井震标定,确定每一构造单元的裂缝响应阈值,采用等比例归一化方法... 川西坳陷新场地区须家河组二段(须二段)天然裂缝发育,储层整体致密。基于Fault Likelihood(FL)属性提取、预处理,结合钻井资料揭示裂缝发育程度,通过构造单元分区进行裂缝井震标定,确定每一构造单元的裂缝响应阈值,采用等比例归一化方法,整合各分区调整后的属性,进行裂缝预测与三维地质建模。结果表明:经过分区标定的FL属性与钻井裂缝吻合率超过85%,与倾角大于30°的有效裂缝密度相关关系最好,提高基于FL属性对裂缝探测的准确度;三维裂缝地质模型能够准确反映储层裂缝及其参数的空间分布,为新场气田须二段致密砂岩气藏产能建设提供定量化数据基础。 展开更多
关键词 Fault likelihood属性 裂缝预测 裂缝建模 须二段 新场气田 川西坳陷
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Life prediction for vacuum fluorescent display using maximum likelihood estimation 被引量:3
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作者 张建平 王睿韬 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2009年第2期189-192,共4页
In order to obtain the life information of the vacuum fluorescent display (VFD) in a short time, a model of constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALT) is established with its filament temperature increased, an... In order to obtain the life information of the vacuum fluorescent display (VFD) in a short time, a model of constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALT) is established with its filament temperature increased, and four constant stress tests are conducted. The Weibull function is applied to describe the life distribution of the VFD, and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and its iterative flow chart are used to calculate the shape parameters and the scale parameters. Furthermore, the accelerated life equation is determined by the least square method, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is performed to verify whether the VFD life meets the Weibull distribution or not, and selfdeveloped software is employed to predict the average life and the reliable life. Statistical data analysis results demonstrate that the test plans are feasible and versatile, that the VFD life follows the Weibull distribution, and that the VFD accelerated model satisfies the linear Arrhenius equation. The proposed method and the estimated life information of the VFD can provide some significant guideline to its manufacturers and customers. 展开更多
关键词 vacuum fluorescent display accelerated life test constant stress Weibull distribution maximum likelihood estimation
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无协变量的捕获再捕获数据下种群规模的完全似然估计方法
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作者 李扬 刘潇优 +2 位作者 洪伊铭 刘相儒 刘玉坤 《应用概率统计》 北大核心 2026年第1期90-103,共14页
种群规模是生物多样性度量的一个重要指标,对生态学研究具有重要意义.在无协变量捕获再捕获数据下,经典的种群规模估计方法包括Chapman估计和Dang等人(2021)的估计,这些方法只适用于两次捕获的情况,且相应的区间都是Wald型的,其覆盖率... 种群规模是生物多样性度量的一个重要指标,对生态学研究具有重要意义.在无协变量捕获再捕获数据下,经典的种群规模估计方法包括Chapman估计和Dang等人(2021)的估计,这些方法只适用于两次捕获的情况,且相应的区间都是Wald型的,其覆盖率可能会低于置信水平,且可能包含不合理的值.为此,我们提出一种基于全局似然函数的种群规模的似然估计方法.相比经典方法,其显著优点是不仅适用于两次捕获的情况,也适用于多次捕获的场景.我们构造了样本的全局似然函数和似然比统计量,并证明似然比统计量渐近服从自由度为1的卡方分布,进而给出种群规模的最大似然估计和似然比区间估计.数值模拟结果表明,与经典估计方法不同,我们提出的似然比置信区间的覆盖率总是接近或者高于置信水平,且在捕获次数超过2次的情况下,仍然具有令人满意的表现.最后,我们通过对香港黄腹鹪莺数据的分析发现,经典的Wald型区间左端点可能低于观测到的个体数量,这是不合理的,而我们的似然比区间则给出了合理的结果,进一步证实了似然比区间估计的广泛适用性和优越性. 展开更多
关键词 种群规模 无协变量 似然比区间 最大似然估计
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Gaussian mixture model clustering with completed likelihood minimum message length criterion 被引量:1
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作者 曾洪 卢伟 宋爱国 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2013年第1期43-47,共5页
An improved Gaussian mixture model (GMM)- based clustering method is proposed for the difficult case where the true distribution of data is against the assumed GMM. First, an improved model selection criterion, the ... An improved Gaussian mixture model (GMM)- based clustering method is proposed for the difficult case where the true distribution of data is against the assumed GMM. First, an improved model selection criterion, the completed likelihood minimum message length criterion, is derived. It can measure both the goodness-of-fit of the candidate GMM to the data and the goodness-of-partition of the data. Secondly, by utilizing the proposed criterion as the clustering objective function, an improved expectation- maximization (EM) algorithm is developed, which can avoid poor local optimal solutions compared to the standard EM algorithm for estimating the model parameters. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can rectify the over-fitting tendency of representative GMM-based clustering approaches and can robustly provide more accurate clustering results. 展开更多
关键词 Gaussian mixture model non-Gaussian distribution model selection expectation-maximization algorithm completed likelihood minimum message length criterion
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出租车超速概率建模因素对应回归系数的稳定性分析
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作者 周悦 江欣国 +1 位作者 付川云 刘海玥 《公路交通科技》 北大核心 2026年第1期15-24,共10页
【目标】分析出租车超速概率建模过程中的因素对应回归系数在不同时间尺度下的稳定性,识别其中可支持交通安全管理的稳定因素。【方法】基于成都市2016年11月共28 d、5719辆出租车的轨迹数据,识别超速行为并提取周次、周末与非周末、工... 【目标】分析出租车超速概率建模过程中的因素对应回归系数在不同时间尺度下的稳定性,识别其中可支持交通安全管理的稳定因素。【方法】基于成都市2016年11月共28 d、5719辆出租车的轨迹数据,识别超速行为并提取周次、周末与非周末、工作日3个时间尺度下的超速距离百分比,作为超速概率的度量;同时从轨迹中提取运营影响因素,建立各时间单元下的贝叶斯随机系数模型,并通过似然比检验评估不同时间尺度下模型系数的稳定性。【结果】各运营因素的系数在不同时间尺度下稳定性差异显著:高峰期行驶距离比例的系数最不稳定,其显著性随时间尺度变化明显;日均行驶距离的系数也较不稳定。相比之下,夜晚行驶距离比例、低限速道路行驶距离比例、平均每小时载客数、平均单次载客距离和平均空载距离等因素的系数较为稳定。弹性分析进一步表明,追求客运营收是导致出租车超速概率上升的主要原因。【结论】出租车超速行为的影响因素中,部分运营因素具有时间尺度上的稳定性,可针对稳定因素实施共性干预措施,而对不稳定的因素则需采取个性化干预,从而提升超速行为预防的安全管理成效。 展开更多
关键词 智能交通 超速概率致因 贝叶斯回归模型 出租车 似然比检验 回归系数稳定性
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