Structural change theories usually assume agents are homogeneous. However, because of demand-side or supply-side heterogeneities, the probability of switching among sectors differs across people. This paper reveals th...Structural change theories usually assume agents are homogeneous. However, because of demand-side or supply-side heterogeneities, the probability of switching among sectors differs across people. This paper reveals these differences through restoring a long-period, individual-level panel dataset from China＇s Urban Household Survey for 1986-2009. We find that both for people who started working for the first time and those who switched jobs, the sector choice depends on personal characteristics. In particular, women and people with higher educational attainment or a previous white- collar job are more likely to join the tertiary sector and less likely to join the primary sector. These effects are substantial even if the macroeconomic variables used in conventional structural change theories are controlled. They are also robust in various periods and at more detailed industry levels. Our research suggests that it is important to pay greater attention to the labor composition when mal^ng policy related to economic structural change.展开更多
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation （Grant No. 71403237）, the Project of Humanities and Social Science of the Ministry of Education in China （Grant No. 14YJC790089）, the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. LQ14G030008）, the Beijing Social Science Foundation （Grant No. 14JGC100）, and the Scientific Research Fund of Zhejiang Provincial Education Department （No. Y201430552）. Rui Mao also thanks the Collaborative Innovation Center for Rural Reform and Development for financial support.
文摘Structural change theories usually assume agents are homogeneous. However, because of demand-side or supply-side heterogeneities, the probability of switching among sectors differs across people. This paper reveals these differences through restoring a long-period, individual-level panel dataset from China＇s Urban Household Survey for 1986-2009. We find that both for people who started working for the first time and those who switched jobs, the sector choice depends on personal characteristics. In particular, women and people with higher educational attainment or a previous white- collar job are more likely to join the tertiary sector and less likely to join the primary sector. These effects are substantial even if the macroeconomic variables used in conventional structural change theories are controlled. They are also robust in various periods and at more detailed industry levels. Our research suggests that it is important to pay greater attention to the labor composition when mal^ng policy related to economic structural change.
