The diffusion of industrial robot technology has coincided with increasing divergence in firms’market shares,potentially leading to enhanced market power and shifts in the distribution of factor income.This paper inv...The diffusion of industrial robot technology has coincided with increasing divergence in firms’market shares,potentially leading to enhanced market power and shifts in the distribution of factor income.This paper investigates the impact of industrial robot adoption on firms’labor income share and explores the underlying mechanisms,with particular attention to the rise of superstar firms.The findings suggest that,overall,the use of industrial robots contributes to an increase in labor’s income share,reflecting a generally favorable trend for labor’s position in primary income distribution.This effect,however,is markedly heterogeneous across different types of firms,regions,and industries.A significant concern is that robot adoption strengthens firms’relative market power within industries,fueling the emergence of superstar firms.These firms jointly influence labor income share through both a competition effect and a demonstration effect:the former is the main cause of declining labor shares,while the latter introduces a new channel through which labor’s share is further reduced.Although antitrust policies can help improve labor’s income share,they are not well-suited to curbing the market power expansion driven by industrial robot adoption.Thus,the concern over superstar firms’suppression of labor income remains.Amid the intensifying trend of“machines replacing humans”,this paper offers empirical insights into how to address the distributional implications brought about by the rise of superstar firms.展开更多
Using a theoretical model, this article concludes that age structures influence people＇s propensity to save and thereby influence their capital intensity. In the context that capital and labor are in a substitutional...Using a theoretical model, this article concludes that age structures influence people＇s propensity to save and thereby influence their capital intensity. In the context that capital and labor are in a substitutional relation, increased capital intensity may lead to a drop of labor income share. We perform empirical research with provincial-level data from 1990 to 2007 and have proved that the rising of the old dependency ratio and the decrease of the children dependency rate both contribute to the fall of labor income share. This assumption still holds true after the authors control the influences of other potential factors that may influence labor income share展开更多
Artificial intelligence(AI)is a strategic technology that leads a new round of technological revolution and structural transformation.This paper studies the effects of AI on structural change and factor income shares....Artificial intelligence(AI)is a strategic technology that leads a new round of technological revolution and structural transformation.This paper studies the effects of AI on structural change and factor income shares.As a general purpose technology and new infrastructure,AI may substitute either labor or capital and its application has differential prospects across sectors.With a multi-sector general dynamic equilibrium model,we find that AI services or AI-specific technologies will reallocate factors between sectors.The direction of the reallocation depends on sectoral differences in the output elasticity of AI and in the elasticity of substitution between AI and traditional modes of production.The process of structural change will in turn change the labor income share.This paper presents the theoretical conditions for the direction of these changes and the underlying economic mechanism.We derive policy implications about how to promote high-quality development with AI.展开更多
Empirical study of sectoral-level change in LIS in China reveals that change in industry structure is synchronous and positively correlated with LIS in different sectors of the economy, intensifying overall LIS fluctu...Empirical study of sectoral-level change in LIS in China reveals that change in industry structure is synchronous and positively correlated with LIS in different sectors of the economy, intensifying overall LIS fluctuations. Our analysis of LIS based on data from the major sectors of China＇s economy show that, relative to 1993, the increase in LIS in 1996 was largely due to the increased proportion of LIS in secondary industry. Relative to 1996, the fall in LIS in 2003 was closely related to the fall in the proportion of primary industry in the overall economy. The year 2004 was unusual in that it witnessed a dramatic fall in overall LIS level. The primary reason for the fall was a change in statistical definition that led to a significant reduction in LIS in the secondary and tertiary sectors. There were huge variations in LIS level among different regions. However, with the passage of time, the regional disparities are gradually being reduced. This is also closely connected to changes in industry structure and within-sector LIS fluctuations.展开更多
Proceeding from trade structure variations,this paper provides a new perspective on the study of the share of labor income in China.China's commodity trade structure has experienced a step change in recent years.A...Proceeding from trade structure variations,this paper provides a new perspective on the study of the share of labor income in China.China's commodity trade structure has experienced a step change in recent years.According to theoretical analysis,trade exerts not only a direct effect on the share of labor income through international division of labor and specialization but also an indirect effect through factor intensity variations and technology progress bias.Empirical study discovered that export has a significant negative effect on the share of China's labor income while import has a positive effect.Import and export have different levels and directions of effect on sectors with different factor intensity.展开更多
Accurately measuring labor＇s share of income is of great importance for China ＇S national policies, particularly its labor compensation policies during the 12th Five Year Plan period. This paper first analyses the m...Accurately measuring labor＇s share of income is of great importance for China ＇S national policies, particularly its labor compensation policies during the 12th Five Year Plan period. This paper first analyses the measurement problems of labor＇s share of income from the perspectives of definition and data and their influences on the accuracy of the measurement results. Then it sums up and appraises several adjustment methods for existing measurement problems. Finally, the author estimates the operating surplus of private, unincorporated enterprises （OSPUE） in China using data from Urban household survey （UHS）, Rural household survey （RHS） and population survey, and further makes a correction to labor＇s share of income in China from 1993 to 2008 with data from flow of funds accounts. Finally, the author conducted trend analysis and international comparisons using the results obtained from the first part of the paper.展开更多
By creating a two-sector intertemporal and intergenerational small open economy model,this paper investigates how real exchange rate responds to demographic shifts in the long term.The result shows that when the capit...By creating a two-sector intertemporal and intergenerational small open economy model,this paper investigates how real exchange rate responds to demographic shifts in the long term.The result shows that when the capital density of tradable goods sector exceeds that of non-tradable goods sector in a country,an increase in the country's elderly dependency rate(ODR) will cause its real exchange rate to appreciate.In addition,higher savings rate or per capita labor income means that real exchange rate is more responsive to ODR variations.We conducted an econometric test on our theoretical hypotheses using the data of 214 countries and regions during 1980-2013.Empirical result indicates that an increase of ODR will cause real exchange rate to appreciate.This result is robust and unaffected by sample grouping characteristics and differences.An increase in savings rate will significantly increase the ODR elasticity of real exchange rate.This conclusion is also significant and robust for overall samples and categorized samples(except for developed countries) and generally consistent with our theoretical hypothesis.However,our empirical research generally does not support the hypothesis that higher labor income increases the responsiveness of real exchange rate to ODR.This study is of great significance to unravel the effect of China's ageing population on the longterm variations of renminbi's exchange rate.展开更多
This paper sheds light on the nexus of age compositional shifts and the generation of the first demographic dividend over the past several decades in China, and also discusses how this dividend could be extended. We f...This paper sheds light on the nexus of age compositional shifts and the generation of the first demographic dividend over the past several decades in China, and also discusses how this dividend could be extended. We first estimate how long China ＇s first demographic dividend will last and then compare the computed results for China with those for other selected Asian countries in order to place the Chinese case in a wider perspective. Furthermore, in view of the possibility that China ＇s first demographic dividend will turn negative in 2014, we offer insight into how and to what extent China ＂s labor market needs to adjust and how much labor income must increase for the first demographic dividend to remain positive up to year 2050. For this goal to be achieved, the labor income age profile needs to be shifted to a considerable extent. We conduct an exercise in which the 2007peak labor income age of 32 years is shifted to 40years. In the case of the elderly, this implies an annual labor income growth of 3.1 percent over the period of 39 years. Throughout this paper, we draw on a variety of computed results derived from the Chinese component of the global ＂National Transfer Accounts＂ project.展开更多
基金supported by General Project of the National Social Science Fund of China(NSSFC),“Mechanisms and Strategies of Artificial Intelligence’s Impact on Inter-firm Wage Disparities”(Grant No.21BJY097).
文摘The diffusion of industrial robot technology has coincided with increasing divergence in firms’market shares,potentially leading to enhanced market power and shifts in the distribution of factor income.This paper investigates the impact of industrial robot adoption on firms’labor income share and explores the underlying mechanisms,with particular attention to the rise of superstar firms.The findings suggest that,overall,the use of industrial robots contributes to an increase in labor’s income share,reflecting a generally favorable trend for labor’s position in primary income distribution.This effect,however,is markedly heterogeneous across different types of firms,regions,and industries.A significant concern is that robot adoption strengthens firms’relative market power within industries,fueling the emergence of superstar firms.These firms jointly influence labor income share through both a competition effect and a demonstration effect:the former is the main cause of declining labor shares,while the latter introduces a new channel through which labor’s share is further reduced.Although antitrust policies can help improve labor’s income share,they are not well-suited to curbing the market power expansion driven by industrial robot adoption.Thus,the concern over superstar firms’suppression of labor income remains.Amid the intensifying trend of“machines replacing humans”,this paper offers empirical insights into how to address the distributional implications brought about by the rise of superstar firms.
文摘Using a theoretical model, this article concludes that age structures influence people＇s propensity to save and thereby influence their capital intensity. In the context that capital and labor are in a substitutional relation, increased capital intensity may lead to a drop of labor income share. We perform empirical research with provincial-level data from 1990 to 2007 and have proved that the rising of the old dependency ratio and the decrease of the children dependency rate both contribute to the fall of labor income share. This assumption still holds true after the authors control the influences of other potential factors that may influence labor income share
文摘Artificial intelligence(AI)is a strategic technology that leads a new round of technological revolution and structural transformation.This paper studies the effects of AI on structural change and factor income shares.As a general purpose technology and new infrastructure,AI may substitute either labor or capital and its application has differential prospects across sectors.With a multi-sector general dynamic equilibrium model,we find that AI services or AI-specific technologies will reallocate factors between sectors.The direction of the reallocation depends on sectoral differences in the output elasticity of AI and in the elasticity of substitution between AI and traditional modes of production.The process of structural change will in turn change the labor income share.This paper presents the theoretical conditions for the direction of these changes and the underlying economic mechanism.We derive policy implications about how to promote high-quality development with AI.
基金The authors express their appreciation for the funding support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation program, ＂Research on the Improvement of Chinese Employees＇ Wage and SaIary Formation Mechanisms＂ （project number： 70873022）, the Key Project of the Shanghai Scientific and Technological Innovation Committee （project number： 09ZS 11）, the Young Scholars Program in Social Science Research of the Ministry of Education （project number： 06JC790012）, and the Shanghai Key Project Research Program （project number： B101）. The original draft was presented at the 188th lecture in the Modern Economics Series hosted by the Research Center for the Chinese Socialist Market Economy at Fudan University. We hereby extend our sincere thanks to all the participants and our anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. Needless to say, we are responsible for any errors or omissions in this study.
文摘Empirical study of sectoral-level change in LIS in China reveals that change in industry structure is synchronous and positively correlated with LIS in different sectors of the economy, intensifying overall LIS fluctuations. Our analysis of LIS based on data from the major sectors of China＇s economy show that, relative to 1993, the increase in LIS in 1996 was largely due to the increased proportion of LIS in secondary industry. Relative to 1996, the fall in LIS in 2003 was closely related to the fall in the proportion of primary industry in the overall economy. The year 2004 was unusual in that it witnessed a dramatic fall in overall LIS level. The primary reason for the fall was a change in statistical definition that led to a significant reduction in LIS in the secondary and tertiary sectors. There were huge variations in LIS level among different regions. However, with the passage of time, the regional disparities are gradually being reduced. This is also closely connected to changes in industry structure and within-sector LIS fluctuations.
文摘Proceeding from trade structure variations,this paper provides a new perspective on the study of the share of labor income in China.China's commodity trade structure has experienced a step change in recent years.According to theoretical analysis,trade exerts not only a direct effect on the share of labor income through international division of labor and specialization but also an indirect effect through factor intensity variations and technology progress bias.Empirical study discovered that export has a significant negative effect on the share of China's labor income while import has a positive effect.Import and export have different levels and directions of effect on sectors with different factor intensity.
文摘Accurately measuring labor＇s share of income is of great importance for China ＇S national policies, particularly its labor compensation policies during the 12th Five Year Plan period. This paper first analyses the measurement problems of labor＇s share of income from the perspectives of definition and data and their influences on the accuracy of the measurement results. Then it sums up and appraises several adjustment methods for existing measurement problems. Finally, the author estimates the operating surplus of private, unincorporated enterprises （OSPUE） in China using data from Urban household survey （UHS）, Rural household survey （RHS） and population survey, and further makes a correction to labor＇s share of income in China from 1993 to 2008 with data from flow of funds accounts. Finally, the author conducted trend analysis and international comparisons using the results obtained from the first part of the paper.
基金the sponsorship of Major Project under the Special Foundation of the Ministry of Education for Basic University Research Funds Study on China's International Competitiveness under New-Type International Production System
文摘By creating a two-sector intertemporal and intergenerational small open economy model,this paper investigates how real exchange rate responds to demographic shifts in the long term.The result shows that when the capital density of tradable goods sector exceeds that of non-tradable goods sector in a country,an increase in the country's elderly dependency rate(ODR) will cause its real exchange rate to appreciate.In addition,higher savings rate or per capita labor income means that real exchange rate is more responsive to ODR variations.We conducted an econometric test on our theoretical hypotheses using the data of 214 countries and regions during 1980-2013.Empirical result indicates that an increase of ODR will cause real exchange rate to appreciate.This result is robust and unaffected by sample grouping characteristics and differences.An increase in savings rate will significantly increase the ODR elasticity of real exchange rate.This conclusion is also significant and robust for overall samples and categorized samples(except for developed countries) and generally consistent with our theoretical hypothesis.However,our empirical research generally does not support the hypothesis that higher labor income increases the responsiveness of real exchange rate to ODR.This study is of great significance to unravel the effect of China's ageing population on the longterm variations of renminbi's exchange rate.
文摘This paper sheds light on the nexus of age compositional shifts and the generation of the first demographic dividend over the past several decades in China, and also discusses how this dividend could be extended. We first estimate how long China ＇s first demographic dividend will last and then compare the computed results for China with those for other selected Asian countries in order to place the Chinese case in a wider perspective. Furthermore, in view of the possibility that China ＇s first demographic dividend will turn negative in 2014, we offer insight into how and to what extent China ＂s labor market needs to adjust and how much labor income must increase for the first demographic dividend to remain positive up to year 2050. For this goal to be achieved, the labor income age profile needs to be shifted to a considerable extent. We conduct an exercise in which the 2007peak labor income age of 32 years is shifted to 40years. In the case of the elderly, this implies an annual labor income growth of 3.1 percent over the period of 39 years. Throughout this paper, we draw on a variety of computed results derived from the Chinese component of the global ＂National Transfer Accounts＂ project.
