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基于改进BNN-LSTM的风电功率概率预测 被引量:1
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作者 李昱 《微型电脑应用》 2024年第3期206-209,共4页
针对确定性的风电功率预测难以提供预测结果的波动区间和支撑风险决策的问题,以贝叶斯网络为基础,通过将先验分布置于LSTM网络层权重参数之上,构建了贝叶斯LSTM神经网络(BNN-LSTM)。以时间卷积神经网络(TCNN)处理风电功率预测的历史时... 针对确定性的风电功率预测难以提供预测结果的波动区间和支撑风险决策的问题,以贝叶斯网络为基础,通过将先验分布置于LSTM网络层权重参数之上,构建了贝叶斯LSTM神经网络(BNN-LSTM)。以时间卷积神经网络(TCNN)处理风电功率预测的历史时序数据,提取时序数据的关联特征。使用互信息熵方法分析了风电功率的气象数据集,剔除关联性小的变量,对气象数据集进行降维处理。并采用嵌入(embedding)结构学习风电功率时间分类特征。随后将TCNN处理后的时序数据、降维后的气象数据以及时间分类特征数据一起送入BNN-LSTM预测模型,通过在某风电数据集不同算法的概率预测指标pinball损失和Winkler评分的对比验证,可知,本文所提方法能从可对风电功率波动做出较为准确的响应,预测效果更好。 展开更多
关键词 贝叶斯神经网络 BNN-lstm 时间卷积神经网络 风电功率 互信息熵 概率预测
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A real-time forecast of tunnel fire based on numerical database and artificial intelligence 被引量:9
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作者 Xiqiang Wu Xiaoning Zhang +2 位作者 Xinyan Huang Fu Xiao Asif Usmani 《Building Simulation》 SCIE EI CSCD 2022年第4期511-524,共14页
The extreme temperature induced by fire and hot toxic smokes in tunnels threaten the trapped personnel and firefighters.To alleviate the potential casualties,fast while reasonable decisions should be made for rescuing... The extreme temperature induced by fire and hot toxic smokes in tunnels threaten the trapped personnel and firefighters.To alleviate the potential casualties,fast while reasonable decisions should be made for rescuing,based on the timely prediction of fire development in tunnels.This paper targets to achieve a real-time prediction(within 1 s)of the spatial-temporal temperature distribution inside the numerical tunnel model by using artificial intelligence(Al)methods.A CFD database of 100 simulated tunnel fire scenarios under various fire location,fire size,and ventilation condition is established.The proposed Al model combines a Long Short-term Memory(LSTM)model and a Transpose Convolution Neural Network(TCNN).The real-time ceiling temperature profile and thousands of temperature-field images are used as the training input and output.Results show that the predicted temperature field 60 s in advance achieves a high accuracy of around 97%.Also,the Al model can quickly identify the critical temperature field for safe evacuation(i.e.,a critical event)and guide emergency responses and firefighting activities.This study demonstrates the promising prospects of Al-based fire forecasts and smart firefighting in tunnel spaces. 展开更多
关键词 tunnel fires smart firefighting critical event CFD deep learning lstm/tcnn
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