Article 3 paragraph 3 and paragraph 4 of the Kyoto Protocol （KP） allow parties to use credits from land-based activities for offsetting their emission reduction/limitation target committed in the KP. Forest manageme...Article 3 paragraph 3 and paragraph 4 of the Kyoto Protocol （KP） allow parties to use credits from land-based activities for offsetting their emission reduction/limitation target committed in the KP. Forest management （FM） is the dominant activity accounted by Annex I parties of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change in the first commitment period of KP （2008-2012）. Data reported for 2008 and 2009 indicate that over half of the emission reduction target of 24 Annex I parties that expect to use FM removals can be offset by FM credits in the first commitment period. EspeciMly the majority of the emission reduction target of Slovenia, Sweden, Latvia, Finland, Japan, and Croatia may be achieved through FM credits. The total FM CAP as contained in decision 16/CMP.1 in the first commitment period was over-estimated significantly by 50% for all KP parties and 36% for parties that elected FM. Some parties such as Russia, Japan, Italy, Germany, and Switzerland that elected FM activity may benefit largely from the over-estimated CAP. Presuming a significant increase of the harvest rate, the FM reference level （FMRL） for 2013-2020 is only 1/5 of the historical mean value of FM removals even though most parties show an increasing or a steady trend of net removals from 1990 to 2009. As a result Annex I parties would be able to use FM credits in the future that are over 4 times of FM CAP in the first commitment period. This potentiM FM credit would account for 7.7% of total emissions by sources without land use, land-use change and forestry activities （LULUCF） in the base year or 1990, and more Annex I parties would share the ＂benefit＂ from the FMRL accounting approach.展开更多
Emission projection and marginal abatement cost curves(MACs) are the central components of any assessment of future carbon market, such as CDM (clean development mechanism) potentials, carbon quota price etc. However,...Emission projection and marginal abatement cost curves(MACs) are the central components of any assessment of future carbon market, such as CDM (clean development mechanism) potentials, carbon quota price etc. However, they are products of very complex, dynamic systems driven by forces like population growth, economic development, resource endowments, technology progress and so on. The modeling approaches for emission projection and MACs evaluation were summarized, and some major models and their results were compared. Accordingly, reduction and cost requirements to achieve the Kyoto target were estimated. It is concluded that Annex I Parties' total reduction requirements range from 503—1304 MtC with USA participation and decrease significantly to 140—612 MtC after USA's withdrawal. Total costs vary from 21—77 BUSD with USA and from 5—36 BUSD without USA if only domestic reduction actions are taken. The costs would sharply reduce while considering the three flexible mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol with domestic actions' share in the all mitigation strategies drops to only 0—16%.展开更多
随着2005年2月16日《京都议定书》的正式生效,温室气体排放问题引起了电力工业界的广泛重视。《京都议定书》等新出台的温室气体排放政策本质上体现了配额-交易的排放控制策略,这种策略曾在美国被用来控制氮氧化合物(NOX)以及二氧化硫(S...随着2005年2月16日《京都议定书》的正式生效,温室气体排放问题引起了电力工业界的广泛重视。《京都议定书》等新出台的温室气体排放政策本质上体现了配额-交易的排放控制策略,这种策略曾在美国被用来控制氮氧化合物(NOX)以及二氧化硫(SO2)等污染气体的排放。配额-交易排放策略下,温室气体排放不再受到刚性的排放上限约束,取而代之的是一定数量的可交易的排放配额限制。针对这一变化,本文提出了一种在配额-交易排放控制策略下经济调度中考虑温室气体排放的新方法。该方法通过引入排放影响因子将排放产生成本与其他发电成本 (例如燃料成本)一并计入到扩展的发电成本中,在寻求扩展发电成本最小的同时,自动确定系统排放配额的使用量,从而,在整体上确保了系统发电的经济性。文章采用Sorted table based lambda-iteration方法对所提出模型进行了求解,该方法可以同时处理发电成本曲线连续与分段连续的机组。算例分析通过对一个10机系统的测试,表明了本文方法的有效性。另外,文中还对系统运行的经济性与排放之间的折中关系进行了分析。展开更多
基金supported by Integrated Monitoring and Assessment on Carbon Sequestration Potential of Terrestrial Ecosystem in China(NoXDA05050602)
文摘Article 3 paragraph 3 and paragraph 4 of the Kyoto Protocol （KP） allow parties to use credits from land-based activities for offsetting their emission reduction/limitation target committed in the KP. Forest management （FM） is the dominant activity accounted by Annex I parties of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change in the first commitment period of KP （2008-2012）. Data reported for 2008 and 2009 indicate that over half of the emission reduction target of 24 Annex I parties that expect to use FM removals can be offset by FM credits in the first commitment period. EspeciMly the majority of the emission reduction target of Slovenia, Sweden, Latvia, Finland, Japan, and Croatia may be achieved through FM credits. The total FM CAP as contained in decision 16/CMP.1 in the first commitment period was over-estimated significantly by 50% for all KP parties and 36% for parties that elected FM. Some parties such as Russia, Japan, Italy, Germany, and Switzerland that elected FM activity may benefit largely from the over-estimated CAP. Presuming a significant increase of the harvest rate, the FM reference level （FMRL） for 2013-2020 is only 1/5 of the historical mean value of FM removals even though most parties show an increasing or a steady trend of net removals from 1990 to 2009. As a result Annex I parties would be able to use FM credits in the future that are over 4 times of FM CAP in the first commitment period. This potentiM FM credit would account for 7.7% of total emissions by sources without land use, land-use change and forestry activities （LULUCF） in the base year or 1990, and more Annex I parties would share the ＂benefit＂ from the FMRL accounting approach.
文摘Emission projection and marginal abatement cost curves(MACs) are the central components of any assessment of future carbon market, such as CDM (clean development mechanism) potentials, carbon quota price etc. However, they are products of very complex, dynamic systems driven by forces like population growth, economic development, resource endowments, technology progress and so on. The modeling approaches for emission projection and MACs evaluation were summarized, and some major models and their results were compared. Accordingly, reduction and cost requirements to achieve the Kyoto target were estimated. It is concluded that Annex I Parties' total reduction requirements range from 503—1304 MtC with USA participation and decrease significantly to 140—612 MtC after USA's withdrawal. Total costs vary from 21—77 BUSD with USA and from 5—36 BUSD without USA if only domestic reduction actions are taken. The costs would sharply reduce while considering the three flexible mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol with domestic actions' share in the all mitigation strategies drops to only 0—16%.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (50377021, 50677036)
文摘随着2005年2月16日《京都议定书》的正式生效,温室气体排放问题引起了电力工业界的广泛重视。《京都议定书》等新出台的温室气体排放政策本质上体现了配额-交易的排放控制策略,这种策略曾在美国被用来控制氮氧化合物(NOX)以及二氧化硫(SO2)等污染气体的排放。配额-交易排放策略下,温室气体排放不再受到刚性的排放上限约束,取而代之的是一定数量的可交易的排放配额限制。针对这一变化,本文提出了一种在配额-交易排放控制策略下经济调度中考虑温室气体排放的新方法。该方法通过引入排放影响因子将排放产生成本与其他发电成本 (例如燃料成本)一并计入到扩展的发电成本中,在寻求扩展发电成本最小的同时,自动确定系统排放配额的使用量,从而,在整体上确保了系统发电的经济性。文章采用Sorted table based lambda-iteration方法对所提出模型进行了求解,该方法可以同时处理发电成本曲线连续与分段连续的机组。算例分析通过对一个10机系统的测试,表明了本文方法的有效性。另外,文中还对系统运行的经济性与排放之间的折中关系进行了分析。
