In this paper,we propose a simple dynamic mortality model to fit and forecast mortality rates for measuring longevity and mortality risks.This proposal is based on a methodology for modelling interest rates,which assu...In this paper,we propose a simple dynamic mortality model to fit and forecast mortality rates for measuring longevity and mortality risks.This proposal is based on a methodology for modelling interest rates,which assumes that changes in spot interest rates depend linearly on a small number of factors.These factors are identified as interest rates with a given maturity.Similarly,we assume that changes in mortality rates depend linearly on changes in a specific mortality rate,which we call the key mortality rate.One of the main advantages of this model is that it allows the development of an easy to implement methodology to measure longevity and mortality risks using simulation techniques.Particularly,we employ the model to calculate the Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Value-at-Risk of an insurance product testing the accuracy and robustness of our proposal using out-of-sample data from six different populations.展开更多
Focusing on the 18 counties along “One River and Two Tributaries” region, and based on the data from China 3nl, 4th and 5th population censuses, this article has analyzed the time and spatial changing patterns of th...Focusing on the 18 counties along “One River and Two Tributaries” region, and based on the data from China 3nl, 4th and 5th population censuses, this article has analyzed the time and spatial changing patterns of the population in this region. The analyses show that since the 3nl population census, total population, average age and total birth rate have all changed considerably: ① Total population has grown, fast, with most counties' annual average growth rate of more than 10. ② In terms of the region's average age, in 2000 the age in the 18 counties is younger than 30 years old. ③ Compared with the 3nl population census, labor force by the 5th census is much younger. ④ Countermeasures are proposed to control population by controlling birth rate as the result of the local resident's quality improvement by education.展开更多
The auto industry, in cooperation over the past 23 years, is embracing new changes. Various new forms are finding use there which used to be dominated by introduced technology, brand name or funds.
文摘In this paper,we propose a simple dynamic mortality model to fit and forecast mortality rates for measuring longevity and mortality risks.This proposal is based on a methodology for modelling interest rates,which assumes that changes in spot interest rates depend linearly on a small number of factors.These factors are identified as interest rates with a given maturity.Similarly,we assume that changes in mortality rates depend linearly on changes in a specific mortality rate,which we call the key mortality rate.One of the main advantages of this model is that it allows the development of an easy to implement methodology to measure longevity and mortality risks using simulation techniques.Particularly,we employ the model to calculate the Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Value-at-Risk of an insurance product testing the accuracy and robustness of our proposal using out-of-sample data from six different populations.
文摘Focusing on the 18 counties along “One River and Two Tributaries” region, and based on the data from China 3nl, 4th and 5th population censuses, this article has analyzed the time and spatial changing patterns of the population in this region. The analyses show that since the 3nl population census, total population, average age and total birth rate have all changed considerably: ① Total population has grown, fast, with most counties' annual average growth rate of more than 10. ② In terms of the region's average age, in 2000 the age in the 18 counties is younger than 30 years old. ③ Compared with the 3nl population census, labor force by the 5th census is much younger. ④ Countermeasures are proposed to control population by controlling birth rate as the result of the local resident's quality improvement by education.
文摘The auto industry, in cooperation over the past 23 years, is embracing new changes. Various new forms are finding use there which used to be dominated by introduced technology, brand name or funds.
