Climate change significantly affects vegetation dynamics.Thus,understanding interactions between vegetation and climatic factors is essential for ecological management.This study used kernel Normalized Difference Vege...Climate change significantly affects vegetation dynamics.Thus,understanding interactions between vegetation and climatic factors is essential for ecological management.This study used kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(kNDVI)and climatic data(temperature,precipitation,humidity,and vapor pressure deficit(VPD))of China from 2000 to 2022,integrating Geographic Convergent Cross Mapping(GCCM)causal modeling,Extreme Gradient Boosting-Shapley Additive Explanations(XGBoost-SHAP)nonlinear threshold identification,and Geographical Simulation and Optimization Systems-Future Land Use Simulation(GeoSOS-FLUS)spatial prediction modeling to investigate vegetation spatiotemporal characteristics,driving mechanisms,nonlinear thresholds,and future spatial patterns.Results indicated that from 2000 to 2022,China's kNDVI showed an overall increasing trend(annual average ranging from 0.29 to 0.33 with distinct spatial differentiation:52.77%of areas locating in agricultural and ecological restoration regions in the central-eastern plain)experienced vegetation improvement,whereas 2.68%of areas locating in the southeastern coastal urbanized regions and the Yangtze River Delta experience vegetation degradation.The coefficient of variation(CV)of kNDVI at 0.30–0.40(accounting for 10.61%)was significantly higher than that of NDVI(accounting for 1.80%).Climate-driven mechanisms exhibited notable library length(L)dependence.At short-term scales(L<50),vegetation-driven transpiration regulated local microclimate,with a causal strength from kNDVI to temperature of 0.04–0.15;at long-term scales(L>100),cumulative temperature effects dominated vegetation dynamics,with a causal strength from temperature to kNDVI of 0.33.Humidity and kNDVI formed bidirectional positive feedback at long-term scales(L=210,causal strength>0.70),whereas the long-term suppressive effect of VPD was particularly pronounced(causal strength=0.21)in arid areas.The optimal threshold intervals identified were temperature at–12.18℃–0.67℃,precipitation at 24.00–159.74 mm,humidity of lower than 22.00%,and VPD of<0.07,0.17–0.24,and>0.30 kPa;notably,the lower precipitation threshold(24.00 mm)represented the minimum water requirements for vegetation recovery in arid areas.Future kNDVI spatial patterns are projected to continue the trend of"southeastern optimization and northwestern delay"from 2025 to 2040:the area proportion of high kNDVI value(>0.50)will rise from 40.43%to 41.85%,concentrated in the Sichuan Basin and the southern hills;meanwhile,the proportion of low-value areas of kNDVI(0.00–0.10)in the arid northwestern areas will decline by only 1.25%,constrained by sustained temperature and VPD stress.This study provides a scientific basis for vegetation dynamic regulation and sustainable development under climate change.展开更多
The Mongolian Plateau in East Asia is one of the largest contingent arid and semi-arid areas of the world.Under the impacts of climate change and human activities,desertification is becoming increasingly severe on the...The Mongolian Plateau in East Asia is one of the largest contingent arid and semi-arid areas of the world.Under the impacts of climate change and human activities,desertification is becoming increasingly severe on the Mongolian Plateau.Understanding the vegetation dynamics in this region can better characterize its ecological changes.In this study,based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)images,we calculated the kernel normalized difference vegetation index(kNDVI)on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2023,and analyzed the changes in kNDVI using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall significance test.We further investigated the impact of climate change on kNDVI change using partial correlation analysis and composite correlation analysis,and quantified the effects of climate change and human activities on kNDVI change by residual analysis.The results showed that kNDVI on the Mongolian Plateau was increasing overall,and the vegetation recovery area in the southern region was significantly larger than that in the northern region.About 50.99%of the plateau showed dominant climate-driven effects of temperature,precipitation,and wind speed on kNDVI change.Residual analysis showed that climate change and human activities together contributed to 94.79%of the areas with vegetation improvement.Appropriate human activities promoted the recovery of local vegetation,and climate change inhibited vegetation growth in the northern part of the Mongolian Plateau.This study provides scientific data for understanding the regional ecological environment status and future changes and developing effective ecological protection measures on the Mongolian Plateau.展开更多
The Loess Plateau(LP),one of the most ecologically fragile regions in China,is affected by severe soil erosion and environmental degradation.Despite large-scale ecological restoration efforts made by Chinese governmen...The Loess Plateau(LP),one of the most ecologically fragile regions in China,is affected by severe soil erosion and environmental degradation.Despite large-scale ecological restoration efforts made by Chinese government in recent years,the region continues to face significant ecological challenges due to the combined impact of climate change and human activities.In this context,we developed a kernal Remote Sensing Ecological Index(kRSEI)using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)products on the Google Earth Engine(GEE)platform to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and trends in ecological environmental quality(EEQ)across the LP from 2000 to 2022 and project future trajectories.Then,we applied partial correlation analysis and multivariate regression residual analysis to further quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to EEQ.During the study period,the kRSEI values exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity,with a stepwise degradation pattern in the southeast to northwest across the LP.The maximum(0.51)and minimum(0.46)values of the kRSEI were observed in 2007 and 2021,respectively.Trend analyses revealed a decline in EEQ across the LP.Hurst exponent analysis predicted a trend of weak anti-persistent development in most of the plateau areas in the future.A positive correlation was identified between kRSEI and precipitation,particularly in the central and western regions;although,improvements were limited by a precipitation threshold of 837.66 mm/a.A moderate increase in temperature was shown to potentially benefit the ecological environment within a certain range;however,temperature of-1.00°C-7.95°C often had a negative impact on the ecosystem.Climate change and human activities jointly influenced 65.78%of LP area on EEQ,primarily having a negative impact.In terms of contribution,human activities played a dominant role in driving changes in EEQ across the plateau.These findings provide crucial insights for accurately assessing the ecological state of the LP and suggest the design of future restoration strategies.展开更多
基金funded by the Key Science and Technology Research Projects of Henan Province(252102320172).
文摘Climate change significantly affects vegetation dynamics.Thus,understanding interactions between vegetation and climatic factors is essential for ecological management.This study used kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(kNDVI)and climatic data(temperature,precipitation,humidity,and vapor pressure deficit(VPD))of China from 2000 to 2022,integrating Geographic Convergent Cross Mapping(GCCM)causal modeling,Extreme Gradient Boosting-Shapley Additive Explanations(XGBoost-SHAP)nonlinear threshold identification,and Geographical Simulation and Optimization Systems-Future Land Use Simulation(GeoSOS-FLUS)spatial prediction modeling to investigate vegetation spatiotemporal characteristics,driving mechanisms,nonlinear thresholds,and future spatial patterns.Results indicated that from 2000 to 2022,China's kNDVI showed an overall increasing trend(annual average ranging from 0.29 to 0.33 with distinct spatial differentiation:52.77%of areas locating in agricultural and ecological restoration regions in the central-eastern plain)experienced vegetation improvement,whereas 2.68%of areas locating in the southeastern coastal urbanized regions and the Yangtze River Delta experience vegetation degradation.The coefficient of variation(CV)of kNDVI at 0.30–0.40(accounting for 10.61%)was significantly higher than that of NDVI(accounting for 1.80%).Climate-driven mechanisms exhibited notable library length(L)dependence.At short-term scales(L<50),vegetation-driven transpiration regulated local microclimate,with a causal strength from kNDVI to temperature of 0.04–0.15;at long-term scales(L>100),cumulative temperature effects dominated vegetation dynamics,with a causal strength from temperature to kNDVI of 0.33.Humidity and kNDVI formed bidirectional positive feedback at long-term scales(L=210,causal strength>0.70),whereas the long-term suppressive effect of VPD was particularly pronounced(causal strength=0.21)in arid areas.The optimal threshold intervals identified were temperature at–12.18℃–0.67℃,precipitation at 24.00–159.74 mm,humidity of lower than 22.00%,and VPD of<0.07,0.17–0.24,and>0.30 kPa;notably,the lower precipitation threshold(24.00 mm)represented the minimum water requirements for vegetation recovery in arid areas.Future kNDVI spatial patterns are projected to continue the trend of"southeastern optimization and northwestern delay"from 2025 to 2040:the area proportion of high kNDVI value(>0.50)will rise from 40.43%to 41.85%,concentrated in the Sichuan Basin and the southern hills;meanwhile,the proportion of low-value areas of kNDVI(0.00–0.10)in the arid northwestern areas will decline by only 1.25%,constrained by sustained temperature and VPD stress.This study provides a scientific basis for vegetation dynamic regulation and sustainable development under climate change.
基金National Key Research and Development Program on Enhancement of Soil and Water Ecological Security and Guarantee Technology in Desert Oasis Areas(2023YFF130420103)Three North Project of Xinhua Forestry Highland Demonstration Science and Technology Construction Project,the Technology and Demonstration of Near-Natural Modification of Artificial Protective Forest Structures and Enhancement of Soil and Water Conservation Functions in Ecological Protection Belt(2023YFF1305201)+2 种基金Multi-dimensional Coupled Soil-surface-groundwater Hydrological Processes and Vegetation Regulation Mechanism in Loess Area of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2243202)Hot Tracking Program of Beijing Forestry University"Planting a Billion Trees"Program and China-Mongolia Cooperation on Desertification in China(2023BLRD04)Research on Ecological Photovoltaic Vegetation Configuration Model and Restoration Technology(AMKJ2023-17).
文摘The Mongolian Plateau in East Asia is one of the largest contingent arid and semi-arid areas of the world.Under the impacts of climate change and human activities,desertification is becoming increasingly severe on the Mongolian Plateau.Understanding the vegetation dynamics in this region can better characterize its ecological changes.In this study,based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)images,we calculated the kernel normalized difference vegetation index(kNDVI)on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2023,and analyzed the changes in kNDVI using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall significance test.We further investigated the impact of climate change on kNDVI change using partial correlation analysis and composite correlation analysis,and quantified the effects of climate change and human activities on kNDVI change by residual analysis.The results showed that kNDVI on the Mongolian Plateau was increasing overall,and the vegetation recovery area in the southern region was significantly larger than that in the northern region.About 50.99%of the plateau showed dominant climate-driven effects of temperature,precipitation,and wind speed on kNDVI change.Residual analysis showed that climate change and human activities together contributed to 94.79%of the areas with vegetation improvement.Appropriate human activities promoted the recovery of local vegetation,and climate change inhibited vegetation growth in the northern part of the Mongolian Plateau.This study provides scientific data for understanding the regional ecological environment status and future changes and developing effective ecological protection measures on the Mongolian Plateau.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42361017)the Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program-Special Program for Key Research and Development(R&D)on Ecological Civilization Construction in Gansu Province(24YFFA050)the Gansu Agricultural University-Gansu Provincial Academy of Natural Resources Planning Joint Graduate Training Base Project(GAU2024-003)。
文摘The Loess Plateau(LP),one of the most ecologically fragile regions in China,is affected by severe soil erosion and environmental degradation.Despite large-scale ecological restoration efforts made by Chinese government in recent years,the region continues to face significant ecological challenges due to the combined impact of climate change and human activities.In this context,we developed a kernal Remote Sensing Ecological Index(kRSEI)using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)products on the Google Earth Engine(GEE)platform to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and trends in ecological environmental quality(EEQ)across the LP from 2000 to 2022 and project future trajectories.Then,we applied partial correlation analysis and multivariate regression residual analysis to further quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to EEQ.During the study period,the kRSEI values exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity,with a stepwise degradation pattern in the southeast to northwest across the LP.The maximum(0.51)and minimum(0.46)values of the kRSEI were observed in 2007 and 2021,respectively.Trend analyses revealed a decline in EEQ across the LP.Hurst exponent analysis predicted a trend of weak anti-persistent development in most of the plateau areas in the future.A positive correlation was identified between kRSEI and precipitation,particularly in the central and western regions;although,improvements were limited by a precipitation threshold of 837.66 mm/a.A moderate increase in temperature was shown to potentially benefit the ecological environment within a certain range;however,temperature of-1.00°C-7.95°C often had a negative impact on the ecosystem.Climate change and human activities jointly influenced 65.78%of LP area on EEQ,primarily having a negative impact.In terms of contribution,human activities played a dominant role in driving changes in EEQ across the plateau.These findings provide crucial insights for accurately assessing the ecological state of the LP and suggest the design of future restoration strategies.
