A temperature forecasting model was created firstly based on the Kalman filter method,and then used to predict the highest and lowest temperature in Nanchang station from October 27 to November 1,2017.Finally,accordin...A temperature forecasting model was created firstly based on the Kalman filter method,and then used to predict the highest and lowest temperature in Nanchang station from October 27 to November 1,2017.Finally,according to the empirical forecasting method,guidance forecasts were established for the northern,central,and southern parts of Nanchang City.After inspection,it was found that the temperature prediction model established based on the Kalman filter method in Nanchang station had good prediction performance,and especially in the 24-hour forecast,it had advantages over the European Center.The accuracy of low temperature forecast was better than that of high temperature forecast.展开更多
Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management, including flood control, flood warning, reservoir operation and river regulation. In order to improve the estimate of the initi...Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management, including flood control, flood warning, reservoir operation and river regulation. In order to improve the estimate of the initial state of the forecasting system and to reduce the errors in the forecast period a data assimilation procedure was often need. The Kalman filter was proven to be an efficient method to adjust real-time flood series and improve the initial conditions before the forecast. A new model integrating the hydraulic model with the Kalman filter for real-time correction of flood forecast was developed and applied in the Three Gorges interzone of the Yangtze River. The method was calibrated and verified against the observed flood stage and discharge during Three Gorges Dam construction periods （2004）. The results demonstrate that the new model incorporates an accurate and fast updating technique can improve the reliability of the flood forecast.展开更多
Airframe maintenance is traditionally performed at scheduled maintenance stops.The decision to repair a fuselage panel is based on a fixed crack size threshold,which allows to ensure the aircraft safety until the next...Airframe maintenance is traditionally performed at scheduled maintenance stops.The decision to repair a fuselage panel is based on a fixed crack size threshold,which allows to ensure the aircraft safety until the next scheduled maintenance stop.With progress in sensor technology and data processing techniques,structural health monitoring（SHM） systems are increasingly being considered in the aviation industry.SHM systems track the aircraft health state continuously,leading to the possibility of planning maintenance based on an actual state of aircraft rather than on a fixed schedule.This paper builds upon a model-based prognostics framework that the authors developed in their previous work,which couples the Extended Kalman filter（EKF） with a firstorder perturbation（FOP） method.By using the information given by this prognostics method,a novel cost driven predictive maintenance（CDPM） policy is proposed,which ensures the aircraft safety while minimizing the maintenance cost.The proposed policy is formally derived based on the trade-off between probabilities of occurrence of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance.A numerical case study simulating the maintenance process of an entire fleet of aircrafts is implemented.Under the condition of assuring the same safety level,the CDPM is compared in terms of cost with two other maintenance policies：scheduled maintenance and threshold based SHM maintenance.The comparison results show CDPM could lead to significant cost savings.展开更多
Software alignment is quite important for a tracking detector to reach its ultimate position accuracy and momentum resolution. We developed a new alignment algorithm for the BESⅢ Main Drift Chamber using the Kalman F...Software alignment is quite important for a tracking detector to reach its ultimate position accuracy and momentum resolution. We developed a new alignment algorithm for the BESⅢ Main Drift Chamber using the Kalman Filter method. Two different types of data which are helix tracks and straight tracks are used to test this algorithm, and the results show that the design and implementation is successful.展开更多
A flexible polarization demultiplexing method based on an adaptive Kalman filter（AKF） is proposed in which the process noise covariance has been estimated adaptively. The proposed method may significantly improve th...A flexible polarization demultiplexing method based on an adaptive Kalman filter（AKF） is proposed in which the process noise covariance has been estimated adaptively. The proposed method may significantly improve the adaptive capability of an extended Kalman filter（EKF） by adaptively estimating the unknown process noise covariance. Compared to the conventional EKF, the proposed method can avoid the tedious and time consuming parameter-by-parameter tuning operations. The effectiveness of this method is confirmed experimentally in 128 Gb/s 16 QAM polarization-division-multiplexing（PDM） coherent optical transmission systems. The results illustrate that our proposed AKF has a better tracking accuracy and a faster convergence（about 4 times quicker）compared to a conventional algorithm with optimal process noise covariance.展开更多
Gradient based UCODE_2005 and data assimilation based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF) are two different inverse methods. A synthetic two-dimensional flow case with four no-flow boundaries is used to compare the UC...Gradient based UCODE_2005 and data assimilation based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF) are two different inverse methods. A synthetic two-dimensional flow case with four no-flow boundaries is used to compare the UCODE_2005 with the Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF) for their efficiency to inversely calculate and calibrate a hydraulic conductivity field based on hydraulic head data. A zonal, random heterogeneous conductivity field is calibrated by assimilating the time series of heads observed in monitoring wells. The study results indicate that the two inverse methods, UCODE_2005 and EnKF, could be used to calibrate the hydraulic conductivity field to a certain degree. More available observations and information about the conductivity field, more accurate inverse results will be obtained for the UCODE_2005. On the other hand, for a realistic zonal heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field, EnKF can only efficiently determine the hydraulic conductivity field at the first several assimilated time steps. The results obtained by the UCODE_2005 look better than those by the EnKF. This is possibly due to the fact that the UCODE_2005 uses observed head data at every time step, while EnKF can only use observed heads at first several steps due to the filter divergence problem.展开更多
The white noise deconvolution or input white noise estimation problem has important applications in oil seismic exploration,communication and signal processing.By combining the Kalman filtering method with the modern ...The white noise deconvolution or input white noise estimation problem has important applications in oil seismic exploration,communication and signal processing.By combining the Kalman filtering method with the modern time series analysis method,based on the autoregressive moving average(ARMA)innovation model,new distributed fusion white noise deconvolution estimators are presented by weighting local input white noise estimators for general multisensor systems with different local dynamic models and correlated noises.The new estimators can handle input white noise fused filtering,prediction and smoothing problems,and are applicable to systems with colored measurement noise.Their accuracy is higher than that of local white noise deconvolution estimators.To compute the optimal weights,the new formula for local estimation error cross-covariances is given.A Monte Carlo simulation for the system with Bernoulli-Gaussian input white noise shows their effectiveness and performance.展开更多
A track fitting algorithm based on the Kalman filter method has been developed for BESⅢ of BEPCⅡ. The effects of multiple scattering and energy loss when the charged particles go through the detector, non-uniformity...A track fitting algorithm based on the Kalman filter method has been developed for BESⅢ of BEPCⅡ. The effects of multiple scattering and energy loss when the charged particles go through the detector, non-uniformity of magnetic field （NUMF） and wire sag, etc., have been carefully handled. This algorithm works well and the performance satisfies the physical requirements tested by the simulation data.展开更多
文摘A temperature forecasting model was created firstly based on the Kalman filter method,and then used to predict the highest and lowest temperature in Nanchang station from October 27 to November 1,2017.Finally,according to the empirical forecasting method,guidance forecasts were established for the northern,central,and southern parts of Nanchang City.After inspection,it was found that the temperature prediction model established based on the Kalman filter method in Nanchang station had good prediction performance,and especially in the 24-hour forecast,it had advantages over the European Center.The accuracy of low temperature forecast was better than that of high temperature forecast.
基金the National Science and Technology Planning (Grant No. 2006BAC05B02)
文摘Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management, including flood control, flood warning, reservoir operation and river regulation. In order to improve the estimate of the initial state of the forecasting system and to reduce the errors in the forecast period a data assimilation procedure was often need. The Kalman filter was proven to be an efficient method to adjust real-time flood series and improve the initial conditions before the forecast. A new model integrating the hydraulic model with the Kalman filter for real-time correction of flood forecast was developed and applied in the Three Gorges interzone of the Yangtze River. The method was calibrated and verified against the observed flood stage and discharge during Three Gorges Dam construction periods （2004）. The results demonstrate that the new model incorporates an accurate and fast updating technique can improve the reliability of the flood forecast.
基金supported by UT-INSA Program(2013)the support of the China Scholarship Council(CSC)
文摘Airframe maintenance is traditionally performed at scheduled maintenance stops.The decision to repair a fuselage panel is based on a fixed crack size threshold,which allows to ensure the aircraft safety until the next scheduled maintenance stop.With progress in sensor technology and data processing techniques,structural health monitoring（SHM） systems are increasingly being considered in the aviation industry.SHM systems track the aircraft health state continuously,leading to the possibility of planning maintenance based on an actual state of aircraft rather than on a fixed schedule.This paper builds upon a model-based prognostics framework that the authors developed in their previous work,which couples the Extended Kalman filter（EKF） with a firstorder perturbation（FOP） method.By using the information given by this prognostics method,a novel cost driven predictive maintenance（CDPM） policy is proposed,which ensures the aircraft safety while minimizing the maintenance cost.The proposed policy is formally derived based on the trade-off between probabilities of occurrence of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance.A numerical case study simulating the maintenance process of an entire fleet of aircrafts is implemented.Under the condition of assuring the same safety level,the CDPM is compared in terms of cost with two other maintenance policies：scheduled maintenance and threshold based SHM maintenance.The comparison results show CDPM could lead to significant cost savings.
基金Supported by CAS Knowledge Innovation Project (U-602, U-34)National Natural Science Foundation of China (10491300,10491303, 10605030)100 Talents Program of CAS (U-25, U-54)
文摘Software alignment is quite important for a tracking detector to reach its ultimate position accuracy and momentum resolution. We developed a new alignment algorithm for the BESⅢ Main Drift Chamber using the Kalman Filter method. Two different types of data which are helix tracks and straight tracks are used to test this algorithm, and the results show that the design and implementation is successful.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.61335005,61325023,and 61401378)
文摘A flexible polarization demultiplexing method based on an adaptive Kalman filter（AKF） is proposed in which the process noise covariance has been estimated adaptively. The proposed method may significantly improve the adaptive capability of an extended Kalman filter（EKF） by adaptively estimating the unknown process noise covariance. Compared to the conventional EKF, the proposed method can avoid the tedious and time consuming parameter-by-parameter tuning operations. The effectiveness of this method is confirmed experimentally in 128 Gb/s 16 QAM polarization-division-multiplexing（PDM） coherent optical transmission systems. The results illustrate that our proposed AKF has a better tracking accuracy and a faster convergence（about 4 times quicker）compared to a conventional algorithm with optimal process noise covariance.
基金supported by the Basic Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2652015116)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51209187, 41530316 & 91125024)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFC0402805)the Beijing Higher Education Young Elite Teacher Project (Grant No. YETP0653)
文摘Gradient based UCODE_2005 and data assimilation based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF) are two different inverse methods. A synthetic two-dimensional flow case with four no-flow boundaries is used to compare the UCODE_2005 with the Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF) for their efficiency to inversely calculate and calibrate a hydraulic conductivity field based on hydraulic head data. A zonal, random heterogeneous conductivity field is calibrated by assimilating the time series of heads observed in monitoring wells. The study results indicate that the two inverse methods, UCODE_2005 and EnKF, could be used to calibrate the hydraulic conductivity field to a certain degree. More available observations and information about the conductivity field, more accurate inverse results will be obtained for the UCODE_2005. On the other hand, for a realistic zonal heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field, EnKF can only efficiently determine the hydraulic conductivity field at the first several assimilated time steps. The results obtained by the UCODE_2005 look better than those by the EnKF. This is possibly due to the fact that the UCODE_2005 uses observed head data at every time step, while EnKF can only use observed heads at first several steps due to the filter divergence problem.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.60874063)the Science and Technology Research Foundation of Heilongjiang Education Department (No.11523037)the Automatic Control Key Laboratory of Heilongjiang University.
文摘The white noise deconvolution or input white noise estimation problem has important applications in oil seismic exploration,communication and signal processing.By combining the Kalman filtering method with the modern time series analysis method,based on the autoregressive moving average(ARMA)innovation model,new distributed fusion white noise deconvolution estimators are presented by weighting local input white noise estimators for general multisensor systems with different local dynamic models and correlated noises.The new estimators can handle input white noise fused filtering,prediction and smoothing problems,and are applicable to systems with colored measurement noise.Their accuracy is higher than that of local white noise deconvolution estimators.To compute the optimal weights,the new formula for local estimation error cross-covariances is given.A Monte Carlo simulation for the system with Bernoulli-Gaussian input white noise shows their effectiveness and performance.
基金Supported by CAS Knowledge Innovation Project(U-602, U-34)National Natural Science Foundation of China (10491300,10491303, 10605030)100 Talents Program of CAS (U-25, U-54)
文摘A track fitting algorithm based on the Kalman filter method has been developed for BESⅢ of BEPCⅡ. The effects of multiple scattering and energy loss when the charged particles go through the detector, non-uniformity of magnetic field （NUMF） and wire sag, etc., have been carefully handled. This algorithm works well and the performance satisfies the physical requirements tested by the simulation data.
