During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the s...During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis results.To elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget analysis.The findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern Pacific.This increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective instability.Such a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection anomalies.The observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.展开更多
Extensive flooding swept across large areas of Central Asia,mainly over Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia,from late March to April 2024.It was reported to be the worst flooding in the area in the past 70 years and ca...Extensive flooding swept across large areas of Central Asia,mainly over Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia,from late March to April 2024.It was reported to be the worst flooding in the area in the past 70 years and caused widespread devastation to society and infrastructure.However,the drivers of this record-breaking flood remain unexplored.Here,we show that the record-breaking floods were contributed by both long-term climate warming and interannual variability,with multiple climatic drivers at play across the synoptic to seasonal timescales.First,the heavy snowmelt in March 2024 was associated with above-normal preceding winter snow accumulation.Second,extreme rainfall was at a record-high during March 2024,in line with its increasing trend under climate warming.Third,the snowmelt and extreme rainfall in March were compounded by record-high soil moisture conditions in the preceding winter,which was a result of interannual variability and related to excessive winter rainfall over Central Asia.As climate warming continues,the interplay between the increasing trend of extreme rainfall,interannual variations in soil moisture pre-conditions,as well as shifting timing and magnitudes of spring snowmelt,will further increase and complicate spring flooding risks.This is a growing and widespread challenge for the mid-to high-latitude regions.展开更多
The rapid intensification(RI)magnitude of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)exhibits significant interannual variability and is influenced by multiple factors across various scales.These factors...The rapid intensification(RI)magnitude of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)exhibits significant interannual variability and is influenced by multiple factors across various scales.These factors primarily include:interannual factors—sea surface temperature(SST)in key regions of the WNP,eastern Indian Ocean SST,El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),South Pacific Subtropical Dipole(SPSD),and western Pacific teleconnection;decadal factors—Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO);and longer-term factor—global warming.This study systematically analyzes these factors and their potential impacts,quantitatively assessing their relative importance.A statistical prediction model for the WNP TC-RI magnitude is developed based on ridge regression methods.The results indicate that the influence of these factors on the RI magnitude is closely related to the large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions.Among them,the SPSD plays the most critical role in the interannual variability of the RI magnitude,followed by global warming and the AMO.Further analysis reveals that the statistical prediction model based on multiple factors demonstrates good predictive skill for the interannual variability of the TC RI magnitude.展开更多
The Indonesian Throughflow(ITF)plays important roles in global ocean circulation and climate systems.Previous studies suggested the ITF interannual variability is driven by both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(E...The Indonesian Throughflow(ITF)plays important roles in global ocean circulation and climate systems.Previous studies suggested the ITF interannual variability is driven by both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)events.The detailed processes of ENSO and/or IOD induced anomalies impacting on the ITF,however,are still not clear.In this study,this issue is investigated through causal relation,statistical,and dynamical analyses based on satellite observation.The results show that the driven mechanisms of ENSO on the ITF include two aspects.Firstly,the ENSO related wind field anomalies driven anomalous cyclonic ocean circulation in the western Pacific,and off equatorial upwelling Rossby waves propagating westward to arrive at the western boundary of the Pacific,both tend to induce negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHA)in the western Pacific,favoring ITF reduction since the develop of the El Niño through the following year.Secondly,the ENSO events modulate equatorial Indian Ocean zonal winds through Walker Circulation,which in turn trigger eastward propagating upwelling Kelvin waves and westward propagating downwelling Rossby waves.The Rossby waves are reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves,which then propagate eastward along the equator and the Sumatra-Java coast in the Indian Ocean.As a result,the wave dynamics tend to generate negative(positive)SSHA in the eastern Indian Ocean,and thus enhance(reduce)the ITF transport with time lag of 0-6 months(9-12 months),respectively.Under the IOD condition,the wave dynamics also tend to enhance the ITF in the positive IOD year,and reduce the ITF in the following year.展开更多
This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the So...This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) and the associated mechanisms. During summer, the ENSO-independent SST component dominates across tropical ocean regions. The tropical ENSO-independent SSTs during spring and summer in the Maritime Continent(MC), the equatorial central-eastern Pacific(CEP), and the tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO) regions play a comparably significant role in the interannual variation of the SCSSM intensity, compared to the tropical SST dependent on the preceding winter ENSO. The ENSO-independent SST anomalies(SSTA) in the TAO during spring and summer exhibit significant persistence. They can influence the SCSSM through westward propagation of teleconnection, as well as through eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. In summer, the SSTA in the MC, CEP, and TAO regions contribute jointly to the variability of the SCSSM. The MC SSTA affects local convection and generates anomalous meridional circulation to impact the SCSSM intensity. The CEP SSTA directly influences the SCSSM via the Matsuno-Gill response mechanism and indirectly affects it via meridional circulation by modulating vertical motions over the MC through zonal circulation. The TAO SSTA impacts the SCSSM through both westward and eastward pathways, as well as by influencing zonal circulation patterns in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific. The results offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the interannual variability of the SCSSM intensity.展开更多
This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical mechanisms.The first EOF mode(EOF1)...This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical mechanisms.The first EOF mode(EOF1)of snowfall frequency during autumn is mainly characterized by positive anomalies over the Central Siberian Plateau(CSP)and Europe,with opposite anomalies over Central Asia(CA).EOF1 during winter is characterized by positive anomalies in Siberia and negative anomalies in Europe and East Asia(EA).During autumn,EOF1 is associated with the anomalous sea ice in the Kara–Laptev seas(KLS)and sea surface temperature(SST)over the North Atlantic.Increased sea ice in the KLS may cause an increase in the meridional air temperature gradient,resulting in increased synoptic-scale wave activity,thereby inducing increased snowfall frequency over Europe and the CSP.Anomalous increases of both sea ice in the KLS and SST in the North Atlantic may stimulate downstream propagation of Rossby waves and induce an anomalous high in CA corresponding to decreased snowfall frequency.In contrast,EOF1 is mainly affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation during winter.In the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),an anomalous deep cold low(warm high)occurs over Siberia(Europe)leading to increased(decreased)snowfall frequency over Siberia(Europe).The synoptic-scale wave activity excited by the positive NAO can induce downstream Rossby wave propagation and contribute to an anomalous high and descending motion over EA,which may inhibit snowfall.The NAO in winter may be modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole and sea ice in the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas in autumn.展开更多
Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon...Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon include strong (weak) northerly winds along coastal East Asia, cold (warm) East Asian continent and surrounding sea and warm (cold) ocean from the subtropical central Pacific to the trop-ical western Pacific, high (low) pressure in East Asian continent and low (high) pressure in the adjacent ocean and deep (weak) East Asian trough at 500 hPa. These interannual variations are shown to be closely connected to the SST anomaly in the tropical Pacific, both in the western and eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the strength of the EAWM is mainly influenced by the processes associated with the SST anom-aly over the tropical Pacific. The EAWM generally becomes weak when there is a positive SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific (El Ni?o), and it becomes strong when there is a negative SST anomaly (La Ni?a). Moreover, the SST anomaly in the South China Sea is found to be closely related to the EAWM and may persist to the following summer. Both the circulation at 850 hPa and the rainfall in China confirm the connection between the EAWM and the following East Asian summer monsoon. The possible reason for the recent 1998 summer flood in China is briefly discussed too. Key words East Asian winter monsoon - Interannual variability - SST - Summer monsoon This study was supported by “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 part 1, and by key project (KZ 952-S1-404) of Chinese Academy of Sciences.展开更多
Using the latest daily observational rainfall datasets for the period 1961–2008, the present study investigates the interannual variability of June–September （JJAS） mean rainfall in northern China. The regional ch...Using the latest daily observational rainfall datasets for the period 1961–2008, the present study investigates the interannual variability of June–September （JJAS） mean rainfall in northern China. The regional characteristics of JJAS mean rainfall are revealed by a rotated empirical orthogonal function （REOF） analysis. The analysis identifies three regions of large interannual variability of JJAS rainfall： North China （NC）, Northeast China （NEC）, and the Taklimakan Desert in Northwest China （TDNWC）. Summer rainfall over NC is shown to have displayed a remarkable dry period from the late 1990s; while over NEC, decadal-scale variation with a significant decreasing trend in the last two decades is found, and over TDNWC, evidence of large interannual variability is revealed. Results also show that the interannual variability of JJAS rainfall in northern China is closely associated with the Northern Hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection （CGT）. Correlation coefficients between the CGT index and regional-averaged JJAS mean rainfall over NC and NEC were calculated, revealing values of up to 0.50 and 0.53, respectively, both of which exceeded the 99% confidence level.展开更多
The interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies are examined using the autumn precipitation data of 160 stations in China and th...The interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies are examined using the autumn precipitation data of 160 stations in China and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2004. Results indicate a strong interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its positive correlation with the autumn western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. In the flood years, the WPSH ridge line lies over the south of South China and the strengthened ridge over North Asia triggers cold air to move southward. Furthermore, there exists a significantly anomalous updraft and cyclone with the northward stream strengthened at 850 hPa and a positive anomaly center of meridional moisture transport strengthening the northward warm and humid water transport over South China. These display the reverse feature in drought years. The autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China correlates positively with SST in the western Pacific and North Pacific, whereas a negative correlation occurs in the South Indian Ocean in July. The time of the strongest lag-correlation coefficients between SST and autumn precipitation over South China is about two months, implying that the SST of the three ocean areas in July might be one of the predictors for autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China. Discussion about the linkage among July SSTs in the western Pacific, the autumn WPSH and autumn precipitation over South China suggests that SST anomalies might contribute to autumn precipitation through its close relation to the autumn WPSH.展开更多
The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly...The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences： an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.展开更多
Based on a 200 year simulation and reanalysis data (1980–1996), the general characteristics of East Asian monsoon (EAM) were analyzed in the first part of the paper. It is clear from this re-search that the South Asi...Based on a 200 year simulation and reanalysis data (1980–1996), the general characteristics of East Asian monsoon (EAM) were analyzed in the first part of the paper. It is clear from this re-search that the South Asian monsoon (SAM) defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is geographically and dynamically different from the East Asian monsoon (EAM). The region of the monsoon defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is located in the tropical region of Asia (40–110°E, 10–20°N), including the Indian monsoon and the Southeast Asian monsoon, while the EAM de-fined in this paper is located in the subtropical region of East Asia (110–125°E, 20–40°N). The components and the seasonal variations of the SAM and EAM are different and they characterize the tropical and subtropical Asian monsoon systems respectively. A suitable index (EAMI) for East Asian monsoon was then defined to describe the strength of EAM in this paper. In the second part of the paper, the interannual variability of EAM and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) in the 200 year simulation were studied by using the composite method, wavelet transformation, and the moving correlation coefficient method. The summer EAMI is negatively correlated with ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) cycle represented by the NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the preceding April and January, while the winter EAM is closely correlated with the succeeding spring SST over the Pacific in the coupled model. The general differences of EAM between El Nino and La Nina cases were studied in the model through composite analysis. It was also revealed that the dominating time scales of EAM variability may change in the long-term variation and the strength may also change. The anoma-lous winter EAM may have some correlation with the succeeding summer EAM, but this relation-ship may disappear sometimes in the long-term climate variation. Such time-dependence was found in the relationship between EAM and SST in the long-term climate simulation as well. Key words East Asian monsoon - Interannual variability - Coupled climate model The author wishes to thank Profs. Wu G.X., Zhang X.H., and Dr. Yu Y.Q. for providing the coupled model re-sults. Dr. Yu also kindly provided assistance in using the model output. This work was supported jointly by the Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China key project ’ The analysis on the seasonal-to-interannual variation of the general circulation’ under contract 49735160 and Chinese Academy of Sciences key project ’ The Interannual Va-riability and Predictability of East Asian Monsoon’.展开更多
In this study,we found that the intensity of interannual variability in the summer upper-tropospheric zonal wind has significantly weakened over Northeast Asia and the subtropical western North Pacific（WNP） since th...In this study,we found that the intensity of interannual variability in the summer upper-tropospheric zonal wind has significantly weakened over Northeast Asia and the subtropical western North Pacific（WNP） since the mid-1990s,concurrent with the previously documented decrease of the westerly jet over North China and Northwest China.Corresponding to this weakening of zonal wind variability,the meridional displacement of the East Asian westerly jet（EAJ） manifested as the leading mode of zonal wind variability over the WNP and East Asia（WNP-EA） before the mid-1990s but not afterward.The energetics of the anomalous pattern associated with the meridional displacement of the EAJ suggests that barotropic energy conversion,from basic flow to anomalous patterns,has led to the weakening of the variability in the EAJ meridional displacement and to a change in the leading dominant mode since the mid-1990s.The barotropic energy conversion efficiently maintained the anomalies associated with the variability in the EAJ meridional displacement during 1979-1993 but acted to dampen the anomalies during 1994-2008.A further investigation of the energetics suggests that the difference in the patterns of the circulation anomaly associated with either the first leading mode or the meridional displacement of the EAJ,i.e.,a southwest-northeast tilted pattern during 1979-1993 and a zonally oriented pattern during 1994-2008,has contributed greatly to the change in barotropic energy conversion.展开更多
Based on NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data during 1980-1994, seasonally and interannual variability of the horizontal wind field are studied. It is shown that: (1) In the lower troposphere, there exist regions with maximum o...Based on NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data during 1980-1994, seasonally and interannual variability of the horizontal wind field are studied. It is shown that: (1) In the lower troposphere, there exist regions with maximum of seasonally in the tropics, the subtropics and high latitudes, which is called the tropical, subtropical and temperate-frigid monsoon region respectively. In the upper troposphere, the subtropical monsoon combines with the tropical monsoon as a nonseparably planetary monsoon system. In the stratosphere, there is a belt with very large seasonality in each hemisphere caused by the inversely seasonal circulation and by the establishment and collapse of the night jet. (2) Seasonal variation of the large-scale monsoon may generally be attributed to that of the zonal wind, however, seasonal variation of the meridional wind is of great importance in East Asian monsoon region. (3) In monsoon region, interannual variability of the atmospheric general circulation is closely related to seasonal variation of monsoon, while in the tropical Pacific, it may considerably be influenced by the external factors such as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Nino or La Nina event. Moreover, interannual variability undergoes a pronounced annual cycle.展开更多
The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble （MME） System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction （DEMETER） hindcasts was ev...The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble （MME） System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction （DEMETER） hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models （CGCMs）＇ retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient （TCC） of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850- hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain （20^-60~N, 90^-150~E）, was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models （range： 0.39-0.51） for the period 1969 2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.展开更多
The relationship of the interannual variability of the transport and bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） to the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is investigated. This is done through com...The relationship of the interannual variability of the transport and bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） to the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is investigated. This is done through composite analysis of sea surface height （SSH） observed by satellite altimeter during October 1992-July 2009, and correspondingly derived sea surface geostrophic currents. During E1 Nifio/La Nifia years, the SSH in the tropical North Pacific Ocean falls/rises, with maximum changes in the region 0-15~N, 130~E-160~E. The decrease/increase in SSH induces a cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the western tropical gyre. The cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the gyre results in an increase/decrease of NEC transport, and a northward/southward shift of the NEC bifurcation latitude near the Philippine coast. The variations are mainly in response to anomalous wind forcing in the west-central tropical North Pacific Ocean, related to ENSO events.展开更多
Temperature data collected in the sections of 34°N, 35°N and 36°N in August from 1975 through2003 were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) to investigate interannual variability of the so...Temperature data collected in the sections of 34°N, 35°N and 36°N in August from 1975 through2003 were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) to investigate interannual variability of the southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM). The first mode (EOF1) reveals variations of basin-wide thermocline depth, which is mainly caused by surface heating. The second mode (EOF2) presents fluctuations of vertical circulation, resulting mainly from interannual variability of cold front intensity. In addition, it is found that the upward extent of upwelling in the cold front is basically determined by wind stress curl and the zonal position of the warm water center in the southern Yellow Sea is correlated with spatial difference of net heat flux.展开更多
The shallow meridional overturning circulation (upper 1000 m) in the northern Indian Ocean and its interannual variability are studied, based on a global ocean circulation model (MOM2) with an integration of 10 years ...The shallow meridional overturning circulation (upper 1000 m) in the northern Indian Ocean and its interannual variability are studied, based on a global ocean circulation model (MOM2) with an integration of 10 years (1987-1996). It is shown that the shallow meridional overturning circulation has a prominent seasonal reversal characteristic. In winter, the flow is northward in the upper layer and returns southward at great depth. In summer, the deep northward inflow upwells north of the equator and returns southward in the Ekman layer. In the annual mean, the northward inflow returns through two branches: one is a southward flow in the Ekman layer, the other is a flow that sinks near 10°N and returns southward between 500 m and 1000 m. There is significant interannual variability in the shallow meridional overturning circulation, with a stronger (weaker) one in 1989 (1991) and with a period of about four years. The interannual variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation is intimately r展开更多
The major feature, interannual variability and variation cause of the Mindanao Eddy and its im- pact on the thermohaline structure are analyzed based on the Argo profiling float data, the history observed data and the...The major feature, interannual variability and variation cause of the Mindanao Eddy and its im- pact on the thermohaline structure are analyzed based on the Argo profiling float data, the history observed data and the SODA data. The analysis results show that the Mindanao Eddy is a per- manent cyclonic meso-scale eddy and spreads vertically from about 500 m depth upward do about 50 m depth. In addition to its strong seasonal variability, the Mindanao Eddy displays a remark- able interannual variability associated with ENSO. It strengthens and expands eastward during E1 Nifio while it weakens and retreats westward during La Nifia. The interannual variability in the Mindanao Eddy may be caused by the North Equatorial Counter Current, the North Equatorial Current, the Mindanao Current and the Indonesian Through Flow. The eddy variability can have a great influence on the thermohaline structure pattern in the local upper ocean. When the eddy is strong, the cold and low salinity water inside the eddy moves violently upward from deep layer, the thermoeline depth greatly shoals, and the subsurface high salinity water largely decreases ,with the upper mixed layer becoming thinner, and vice versa.展开更多
By using the upper layer data(downloaded from the web of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography),the interannual variability of the heat storage of upper layer(from surface to 400 m depth) and the mixed layer depth i...By using the upper layer data(downloaded from the web of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography),the interannual variability of the heat storage of upper layer(from surface to 400 m depth) and the mixed layer depth in the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated. The abnormal signal of the warm event comes from the central and west Pacific Ocean, whereas it is regarded that the abnormal signal of the warm event comes from the east Pacific Ocean in the popular viewpoint. From the viewpoint on the evolution of the interannual variability of the mixed layer depth and the heat storage of the whole upper layer, the difference between the two types of El Nino is so small that it can be neglected. During these two El Nino/La Nina events(1972/1973 and 1997/1998), other than the case of the heat storage or for the mixed layer depth, the abnormal signal propagates from the central and west Pacific Ocean to the east usually by the path along the equator whereas the abnormal signal propagates from the east to the west by the path northern to the equator. For the interannual variability, the evolution of the mixed layer depth corresponds to that of the heat storage in the upper layer very well. This is quite different from the evolution of seasonality.展开更多
Recently, a new atmospheric general circulation model （GAMIL： Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG） has been developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）, which...Recently, a new atmospheric general circulation model （GAMIL： Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG） has been developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）, which is based on the Community Atmospheric Model Version 2 （CAM2） of the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）. Since the two models have the same physical processes but different dynamical cores, the interannual variability simulation performances of the two models are compared. The ensemble approach is used to reduce model internal variability. In general, the simulation performances of the two models are similar. Both models have good per- formance in simulating total space-time variability and the Southern Oscillation Index. GAMIL performs better in the Eastern Asian winter circulation simulation than CAM2, and the model internal variability of GAMIL has a better response to external forcing than that of CAM2. These indicate that the improvement of the dynamic core is very important. It is also verified that there is less predictability in the middle and high latitudes than in the low latitudes.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42088101]。
文摘During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis results.To elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget analysis.The findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern Pacific.This increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective instability.Such a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection anomalies.The observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42422502,42275038)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program(Grant No.QBZ202306)。
文摘Extensive flooding swept across large areas of Central Asia,mainly over Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia,from late March to April 2024.It was reported to be the worst flooding in the area in the past 70 years and caused widespread devastation to society and infrastructure.However,the drivers of this record-breaking flood remain unexplored.Here,we show that the record-breaking floods were contributed by both long-term climate warming and interannual variability,with multiple climatic drivers at play across the synoptic to seasonal timescales.First,the heavy snowmelt in March 2024 was associated with above-normal preceding winter snow accumulation.Second,extreme rainfall was at a record-high during March 2024,in line with its increasing trend under climate warming.Third,the snowmelt and extreme rainfall in March were compounded by record-high soil moisture conditions in the preceding winter,which was a result of interannual variability and related to excessive winter rainfall over Central Asia.As climate warming continues,the interplay between the increasing trend of extreme rainfall,interannual variations in soil moisture pre-conditions,as well as shifting timing and magnitudes of spring snowmelt,will further increase and complicate spring flooding risks.This is a growing and widespread challenge for the mid-to high-latitude regions.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875114)Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality,China(23DZ1204703)。
文摘The rapid intensification(RI)magnitude of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)exhibits significant interannual variability and is influenced by multiple factors across various scales.These factors primarily include:interannual factors—sea surface temperature(SST)in key regions of the WNP,eastern Indian Ocean SST,El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),South Pacific Subtropical Dipole(SPSD),and western Pacific teleconnection;decadal factors—Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO);and longer-term factor—global warming.This study systematically analyzes these factors and their potential impacts,quantitatively assessing their relative importance.A statistical prediction model for the WNP TC-RI magnitude is developed based on ridge regression methods.The results indicate that the influence of these factors on the RI magnitude is closely related to the large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions.Among them,the SPSD plays the most critical role in the interannual variability of the RI magnitude,followed by global warming and the AMO.Further analysis reveals that the statistical prediction model based on multiple factors demonstrates good predictive skill for the interannual variability of the TC RI magnitude.
基金The Fund of Laoshan Laboratory under contract No.LSKJ202202700the Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institutes of China under contract No.2024Q02+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42076023 and 42430402the Global Change and Air-Sea InteractionⅡProject under contract No.GASI-01-ATP-STwin.
文摘The Indonesian Throughflow(ITF)plays important roles in global ocean circulation and climate systems.Previous studies suggested the ITF interannual variability is driven by both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)events.The detailed processes of ENSO and/or IOD induced anomalies impacting on the ITF,however,are still not clear.In this study,this issue is investigated through causal relation,statistical,and dynamical analyses based on satellite observation.The results show that the driven mechanisms of ENSO on the ITF include two aspects.Firstly,the ENSO related wind field anomalies driven anomalous cyclonic ocean circulation in the western Pacific,and off equatorial upwelling Rossby waves propagating westward to arrive at the western boundary of the Pacific,both tend to induce negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHA)in the western Pacific,favoring ITF reduction since the develop of the El Niño through the following year.Secondly,the ENSO events modulate equatorial Indian Ocean zonal winds through Walker Circulation,which in turn trigger eastward propagating upwelling Kelvin waves and westward propagating downwelling Rossby waves.The Rossby waves are reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves,which then propagate eastward along the equator and the Sumatra-Java coast in the Indian Ocean.As a result,the wave dynamics tend to generate negative(positive)SSHA in the eastern Indian Ocean,and thus enhance(reduce)the ITF transport with time lag of 0-6 months(9-12 months),respectively.Under the IOD condition,the wave dynamics also tend to enhance the ITF in the positive IOD year,and reduce the ITF in the following year.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175018, 42175020)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province (2023B1212060019)+1 种基金Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)(311024001)Project supported by Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)(SML2023SP209)。
文摘This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) and the associated mechanisms. During summer, the ENSO-independent SST component dominates across tropical ocean regions. The tropical ENSO-independent SSTs during spring and summer in the Maritime Continent(MC), the equatorial central-eastern Pacific(CEP), and the tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO) regions play a comparably significant role in the interannual variation of the SCSSM intensity, compared to the tropical SST dependent on the preceding winter ENSO. The ENSO-independent SST anomalies(SSTA) in the TAO during spring and summer exhibit significant persistence. They can influence the SCSSM through westward propagation of teleconnection, as well as through eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. In summer, the SSTA in the MC, CEP, and TAO regions contribute jointly to the variability of the SCSSM. The MC SSTA affects local convection and generates anomalous meridional circulation to impact the SCSSM intensity. The CEP SSTA directly influences the SCSSM via the Matsuno-Gill response mechanism and indirectly affects it via meridional circulation by modulating vertical motions over the MC through zonal circulation. The TAO SSTA impacts the SCSSM through both westward and eastward pathways, as well as by influencing zonal circulation patterns in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific. The results offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the interannual variability of the SCSSM intensity.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41991283).
文摘This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical mechanisms.The first EOF mode(EOF1)of snowfall frequency during autumn is mainly characterized by positive anomalies over the Central Siberian Plateau(CSP)and Europe,with opposite anomalies over Central Asia(CA).EOF1 during winter is characterized by positive anomalies in Siberia and negative anomalies in Europe and East Asia(EA).During autumn,EOF1 is associated with the anomalous sea ice in the Kara–Laptev seas(KLS)and sea surface temperature(SST)over the North Atlantic.Increased sea ice in the KLS may cause an increase in the meridional air temperature gradient,resulting in increased synoptic-scale wave activity,thereby inducing increased snowfall frequency over Europe and the CSP.Anomalous increases of both sea ice in the KLS and SST in the North Atlantic may stimulate downstream propagation of Rossby waves and induce an anomalous high in CA corresponding to decreased snowfall frequency.In contrast,EOF1 is mainly affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation during winter.In the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),an anomalous deep cold low(warm high)occurs over Siberia(Europe)leading to increased(decreased)snowfall frequency over Siberia(Europe).The synoptic-scale wave activity excited by the positive NAO can induce downstream Rossby wave propagation and contribute to an anomalous high and descending motion over EA,which may inhibit snowfall.The NAO in winter may be modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole and sea ice in the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas in autumn.
文摘Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon include strong (weak) northerly winds along coastal East Asia, cold (warm) East Asian continent and surrounding sea and warm (cold) ocean from the subtropical central Pacific to the trop-ical western Pacific, high (low) pressure in East Asian continent and low (high) pressure in the adjacent ocean and deep (weak) East Asian trough at 500 hPa. These interannual variations are shown to be closely connected to the SST anomaly in the tropical Pacific, both in the western and eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the strength of the EAWM is mainly influenced by the processes associated with the SST anom-aly over the tropical Pacific. The EAWM generally becomes weak when there is a positive SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific (El Ni?o), and it becomes strong when there is a negative SST anomaly (La Ni?a). Moreover, the SST anomaly in the South China Sea is found to be closely related to the EAWM and may persist to the following summer. Both the circulation at 850 hPa and the rainfall in China confirm the connection between the EAWM and the following East Asian summer monsoon. The possible reason for the recent 1998 summer flood in China is briefly discussed too. Key words East Asian winter monsoon - Interannual variability - SST - Summer monsoon This study was supported by “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 part 1, and by key project (KZ 952-S1-404) of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
基金supported by the CAS Innovation Key Program (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-BR-14)National Basic Research Program of China (2011CB309704)+1 种基金Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (GrantNo. GYHY201006021)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40890155, 40775051,U0733002)
文摘Using the latest daily observational rainfall datasets for the period 1961–2008, the present study investigates the interannual variability of June–September （JJAS） mean rainfall in northern China. The regional characteristics of JJAS mean rainfall are revealed by a rotated empirical orthogonal function （REOF） analysis. The analysis identifies three regions of large interannual variability of JJAS rainfall： North China （NC）, Northeast China （NEC）, and the Taklimakan Desert in Northwest China （TDNWC）. Summer rainfall over NC is shown to have displayed a remarkable dry period from the late 1990s; while over NEC, decadal-scale variation with a significant decreasing trend in the last two decades is found, and over TDNWC, evidence of large interannual variability is revealed. Results also show that the interannual variability of JJAS rainfall in northern China is closely associated with the Northern Hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection （CGT）. Correlation coefficients between the CGT index and regional-averaged JJAS mean rainfall over NC and NEC were calculated, revealing values of up to 0.50 and 0.53, respectively, both of which exceeded the 99% confidence level.
文摘The interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies are examined using the autumn precipitation data of 160 stations in China and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2004. Results indicate a strong interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its positive correlation with the autumn western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. In the flood years, the WPSH ridge line lies over the south of South China and the strengthened ridge over North Asia triggers cold air to move southward. Furthermore, there exists a significantly anomalous updraft and cyclone with the northward stream strengthened at 850 hPa and a positive anomaly center of meridional moisture transport strengthening the northward warm and humid water transport over South China. These display the reverse feature in drought years. The autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China correlates positively with SST in the western Pacific and North Pacific, whereas a negative correlation occurs in the South Indian Ocean in July. The time of the strongest lag-correlation coefficients between SST and autumn precipitation over South China is about two months, implying that the SST of the three ocean areas in July might be one of the predictors for autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China. Discussion about the linkage among July SSTs in the western Pacific, the autumn WPSH and autumn precipitation over South China suggests that SST anomalies might contribute to autumn precipitation through its close relation to the autumn WPSH.
基金supported by the foundation from:the program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(40675037)the key program of the Sichuan Province Youth Science and Technology Fund(05ZQ026-023)the opening project of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences： an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.
文摘Based on a 200 year simulation and reanalysis data (1980–1996), the general characteristics of East Asian monsoon (EAM) were analyzed in the first part of the paper. It is clear from this re-search that the South Asian monsoon (SAM) defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is geographically and dynamically different from the East Asian monsoon (EAM). The region of the monsoon defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is located in the tropical region of Asia (40–110°E, 10–20°N), including the Indian monsoon and the Southeast Asian monsoon, while the EAM de-fined in this paper is located in the subtropical region of East Asia (110–125°E, 20–40°N). The components and the seasonal variations of the SAM and EAM are different and they characterize the tropical and subtropical Asian monsoon systems respectively. A suitable index (EAMI) for East Asian monsoon was then defined to describe the strength of EAM in this paper. In the second part of the paper, the interannual variability of EAM and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) in the 200 year simulation were studied by using the composite method, wavelet transformation, and the moving correlation coefficient method. The summer EAMI is negatively correlated with ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) cycle represented by the NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the preceding April and January, while the winter EAM is closely correlated with the succeeding spring SST over the Pacific in the coupled model. The general differences of EAM between El Nino and La Nina cases were studied in the model through composite analysis. It was also revealed that the dominating time scales of EAM variability may change in the long-term variation and the strength may also change. The anoma-lous winter EAM may have some correlation with the succeeding summer EAM, but this relation-ship may disappear sometimes in the long-term climate variation. Such time-dependence was found in the relationship between EAM and SST in the long-term climate simulation as well. Key words East Asian monsoon - Interannual variability - Coupled climate model The author wishes to thank Profs. Wu G.X., Zhang X.H., and Dr. Yu Y.Q. for providing the coupled model re-sults. Dr. Yu also kindly provided assistance in using the model output. This work was supported jointly by the Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China key project ’ The analysis on the seasonal-to-interannual variation of the general circulation’ under contract 49735160 and Chinese Academy of Sciences key project ’ The Interannual Va-riability and Predictability of East Asian Monsoon’.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40810059005 and 40725016)
文摘In this study,we found that the intensity of interannual variability in the summer upper-tropospheric zonal wind has significantly weakened over Northeast Asia and the subtropical western North Pacific（WNP） since the mid-1990s,concurrent with the previously documented decrease of the westerly jet over North China and Northwest China.Corresponding to this weakening of zonal wind variability,the meridional displacement of the East Asian westerly jet（EAJ） manifested as the leading mode of zonal wind variability over the WNP and East Asia（WNP-EA） before the mid-1990s but not afterward.The energetics of the anomalous pattern associated with the meridional displacement of the EAJ suggests that barotropic energy conversion,from basic flow to anomalous patterns,has led to the weakening of the variability in the EAJ meridional displacement and to a change in the leading dominant mode since the mid-1990s.The barotropic energy conversion efficiently maintained the anomalies associated with the variability in the EAJ meridional displacement during 1979-1993 but acted to dampen the anomalies during 1994-2008.A further investigation of the energetics suggests that the difference in the patterns of the circulation anomaly associated with either the first leading mode or the meridional displacement of the EAJ,i.e.,a southwest-northeast tilted pattern during 1979-1993 and a zonally oriented pattern during 1994-2008,has contributed greatly to the change in barotropic energy conversion.
文摘Based on NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data during 1980-1994, seasonally and interannual variability of the horizontal wind field are studied. It is shown that: (1) In the lower troposphere, there exist regions with maximum of seasonally in the tropics, the subtropics and high latitudes, which is called the tropical, subtropical and temperate-frigid monsoon region respectively. In the upper troposphere, the subtropical monsoon combines with the tropical monsoon as a nonseparably planetary monsoon system. In the stratosphere, there is a belt with very large seasonality in each hemisphere caused by the inversely seasonal circulation and by the establishment and collapse of the night jet. (2) Seasonal variation of the large-scale monsoon may generally be attributed to that of the zonal wind, however, seasonal variation of the meridional wind is of great importance in East Asian monsoon region. (3) In monsoon region, interannual variability of the atmospheric general circulation is closely related to seasonal variation of monsoon, while in the tropical Pacific, it may considerably be influenced by the external factors such as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Nino or La Nina event. Moreover, interannual variability undergoes a pronounced annual cycle.
基金supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program,Grant No. 2009CB421406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41130103 and 40821092)+1 种基金the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology,Grant No. GYHY200906018)the Norwegian Research Council "East Asia DecCen"Project
文摘The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble （MME） System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction （DEMETER） hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models （CGCMs）＇ retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient （TCC） of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850- hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain （20^-60~N, 90^-150~E）, was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models （range： 0.39-0.51） for the period 1969 2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Major Project (No. 40890151)the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2007CB411802)
文摘The relationship of the interannual variability of the transport and bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） to the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is investigated. This is done through composite analysis of sea surface height （SSH） observed by satellite altimeter during October 1992-July 2009, and correspondingly derived sea surface geostrophic currents. During E1 Nifio/La Nifia years, the SSH in the tropical North Pacific Ocean falls/rises, with maximum changes in the region 0-15~N, 130~E-160~E. The decrease/increase in SSH induces a cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the western tropical gyre. The cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the gyre results in an increase/decrease of NEC transport, and a northward/southward shift of the NEC bifurcation latitude near the Philippine coast. The variations are mainly in response to anomalous wind forcing in the west-central tropical North Pacific Ocean, related to ENSO events.
文摘Temperature data collected in the sections of 34°N, 35°N and 36°N in August from 1975 through2003 were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) to investigate interannual variability of the southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM). The first mode (EOF1) reveals variations of basin-wide thermocline depth, which is mainly caused by surface heating. The second mode (EOF2) presents fluctuations of vertical circulation, resulting mainly from interannual variability of cold front intensity. In addition, it is found that the upward extent of upwelling in the cold front is basically determined by wind stress curl and the zonal position of the warm water center in the southern Yellow Sea is correlated with spatial difference of net heat flux.
基金This study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)under Grant No.40233033.
文摘The shallow meridional overturning circulation (upper 1000 m) in the northern Indian Ocean and its interannual variability are studied, based on a global ocean circulation model (MOM2) with an integration of 10 years (1987-1996). It is shown that the shallow meridional overturning circulation has a prominent seasonal reversal characteristic. In winter, the flow is northward in the upper layer and returns southward at great depth. In summer, the deep northward inflow upwells north of the equator and returns southward in the Ekman layer. In the annual mean, the northward inflow returns through two branches: one is a southward flow in the Ekman layer, the other is a flow that sinks near 10°N and returns southward between 500 m and 1000 m. There is significant interannual variability in the shallow meridional overturning circulation, with a stronger (weaker) one in 1989 (1991) and with a period of about four years. The interannual variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation is intimately r
基金The National Basic Research Program of China "973" project under contract No. 2007CB816002the innovative key project of Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract Nos KZCXZ-YW-201 and KZCX2-YW-Q11-02the Fund of Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry,SOA under contract No.GCMAC2010.
文摘The major feature, interannual variability and variation cause of the Mindanao Eddy and its im- pact on the thermohaline structure are analyzed based on the Argo profiling float data, the history observed data and the SODA data. The analysis results show that the Mindanao Eddy is a per- manent cyclonic meso-scale eddy and spreads vertically from about 500 m depth upward do about 50 m depth. In addition to its strong seasonal variability, the Mindanao Eddy displays a remark- able interannual variability associated with ENSO. It strengthens and expands eastward during E1 Nifio while it weakens and retreats westward during La Nifia. The interannual variability in the Mindanao Eddy may be caused by the North Equatorial Counter Current, the North Equatorial Current, the Mindanao Current and the Indonesian Through Flow. The eddy variability can have a great influence on the thermohaline structure pattern in the local upper ocean. When the eddy is strong, the cold and low salinity water inside the eddy moves violently upward from deep layer, the thermoeline depth greatly shoals, and the subsurface high salinity water largely decreases ,with the upper mixed layer becoming thinner, and vice versa.
基金This project is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.59021 1004,40005007,49975021,and 40376039.
文摘By using the upper layer data(downloaded from the web of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography),the interannual variability of the heat storage of upper layer(from surface to 400 m depth) and the mixed layer depth in the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated. The abnormal signal of the warm event comes from the central and west Pacific Ocean, whereas it is regarded that the abnormal signal of the warm event comes from the east Pacific Ocean in the popular viewpoint. From the viewpoint on the evolution of the interannual variability of the mixed layer depth and the heat storage of the whole upper layer, the difference between the two types of El Nino is so small that it can be neglected. During these two El Nino/La Nina events(1972/1973 and 1997/1998), other than the case of the heat storage or for the mixed layer depth, the abnormal signal propagates from the central and west Pacific Ocean to the east usually by the path along the equator whereas the abnormal signal propagates from the east to the west by the path northern to the equator. For the interannual variability, the evolution of the mixed layer depth corresponds to that of the heat storage in the upper layer very well. This is quite different from the evolution of seasonality.
文摘Recently, a new atmospheric general circulation model （GAMIL： Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG） has been developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）, which is based on the Community Atmospheric Model Version 2 （CAM2） of the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）. Since the two models have the same physical processes but different dynamical cores, the interannual variability simulation performances of the two models are compared. The ensemble approach is used to reduce model internal variability. In general, the simulation performances of the two models are similar. Both models have good per- formance in simulating total space-time variability and the Southern Oscillation Index. GAMIL performs better in the Eastern Asian winter circulation simulation than CAM2, and the model internal variability of GAMIL has a better response to external forcing than that of CAM2. These indicate that the improvement of the dynamic core is very important. It is also verified that there is less predictability in the middle and high latitudes than in the low latitudes.
