This study aims at establishing if climate change exists in the Niger Delta environment using non-stationary rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) modelling incorporating time-variant parameters. To compute the ...This study aims at establishing if climate change exists in the Niger Delta environment using non-stationary rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) modelling incorporating time-variant parameters. To compute the intensity levels, the open-access R-studio software was used based on the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function. Among the four linear parameter models adopted for integrating time as a covariate, the fourth linear model incorporating scale and location with the shape function constant produced the least corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc), varying between 306.191 to 101.497 for 15 and 1440 minutes, respectively, selected for calibration of the GEV distribution equation. The non-stationary intensities yielded higher values above those of stationary models, proving that the assumption of stationary IDF models underestimated extreme events. The difference of 13.71 mm/hr (22.71%) to 14.26 mm/hr (17.0%) intensities implies an underestimation of the peak flood from a stationary IDF curve. The statistical difference at a 95% confidence level between stationary and non-stationary models was significant, confirming evidence of climatic change influenced by time-variant parameters. Consequently, emphasis should be on applying shorter-duration storms for design purposes occurring with higher intensities to help reduce the flood risk and resultant infrastructural failures.展开更多
In Vietnam,rainfall data usually received using daily rainfall at all hydrology stations with higher time resolution are scarce.However,its analyses to achieve IDF(Intensity-Duration-Frequency)curves are often require...In Vietnam,rainfall data usually received using daily rainfall at all hydrology stations with higher time resolution are scarce.However,its analyses to achieve IDF(Intensity-Duration-Frequency)curves are often required at a finer scale such as hourly.Therefore,it needs to develop and apply methods to derive the IDF characteristics of short-duration events from daily rainfall statistics in Vietnam.In recent years,the need for new insights into the rainfall process leading to new approaches to model the distribution of rainfall intensities in time and space was recognized.This research aims to establish IDF curves for monsoon climate area in Vietnam based on scaling method.Scaling properties of extreme rainfall are examined in the Red River Delta of Vietnam in order to establish scaling behavior of statistical moments over different durations.Such scaling or scale-invariant models enable us to scale data from one temporal resolution to another,and thus,help to overcome the lack of the extreme rainfall data of sub-daily durations.The disaggregation or downscaling techniques are used to obtain sub-daily rainfall data from daily rainfall data for the derivation of scaled IDF curves.Research results show that most of rainfall amount(approximately 70%)received from rains occurring between 6:0 pm to 6:0 am of the day after that,the daytime usually less rainfall occurrence with only 30%.The peak rainfall is usually occurred during 0:0 am to 4:0 am having approximately 42.98%of rainfall amount over a day.The peak rainfall likely happen earlier in the recent year(36%rainfall amount over a day occurrence from 6:00 pm to 10:00 pm in 2008).The analysis also illustrated that approximately 40%of rainfall events have duration less than 60 minutes.In contrast,only approximately 9%of rainfall events have duration more than 6 hours but total rainfall depths of these events is approximately.展开更多
文摘This study aims at establishing if climate change exists in the Niger Delta environment using non-stationary rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) modelling incorporating time-variant parameters. To compute the intensity levels, the open-access R-studio software was used based on the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function. Among the four linear parameter models adopted for integrating time as a covariate, the fourth linear model incorporating scale and location with the shape function constant produced the least corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc), varying between 306.191 to 101.497 for 15 and 1440 minutes, respectively, selected for calibration of the GEV distribution equation. The non-stationary intensities yielded higher values above those of stationary models, proving that the assumption of stationary IDF models underestimated extreme events. The difference of 13.71 mm/hr (22.71%) to 14.26 mm/hr (17.0%) intensities implies an underestimation of the peak flood from a stationary IDF curve. The statistical difference at a 95% confidence level between stationary and non-stationary models was significant, confirming evidence of climatic change influenced by time-variant parameters. Consequently, emphasis should be on applying shorter-duration storms for design purposes occurring with higher intensities to help reduce the flood risk and resultant infrastructural failures.
文摘In Vietnam,rainfall data usually received using daily rainfall at all hydrology stations with higher time resolution are scarce.However,its analyses to achieve IDF(Intensity-Duration-Frequency)curves are often required at a finer scale such as hourly.Therefore,it needs to develop and apply methods to derive the IDF characteristics of short-duration events from daily rainfall statistics in Vietnam.In recent years,the need for new insights into the rainfall process leading to new approaches to model the distribution of rainfall intensities in time and space was recognized.This research aims to establish IDF curves for monsoon climate area in Vietnam based on scaling method.Scaling properties of extreme rainfall are examined in the Red River Delta of Vietnam in order to establish scaling behavior of statistical moments over different durations.Such scaling or scale-invariant models enable us to scale data from one temporal resolution to another,and thus,help to overcome the lack of the extreme rainfall data of sub-daily durations.The disaggregation or downscaling techniques are used to obtain sub-daily rainfall data from daily rainfall data for the derivation of scaled IDF curves.Research results show that most of rainfall amount(approximately 70%)received from rains occurring between 6:0 pm to 6:0 am of the day after that,the daytime usually less rainfall occurrence with only 30%.The peak rainfall is usually occurred during 0:0 am to 4:0 am having approximately 42.98%of rainfall amount over a day.The peak rainfall likely happen earlier in the recent year(36%rainfall amount over a day occurrence from 6:00 pm to 10:00 pm in 2008).The analysis also illustrated that approximately 40%of rainfall events have duration less than 60 minutes.In contrast,only approximately 9%of rainfall events have duration more than 6 hours but total rainfall depths of these events is approximately.
