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The Import Trade Forecasting Model Based on PCA: Evidence from Rwanda 被引量:1
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作者 Elie Nzayisenga Yongzhong Zhu 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2020年第4期678-693,共16页
A developing country like Rwanda heavily </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">keen </span><span style="font-f... A developing country like Rwanda heavily </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">keen </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">on</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> international trade for several essential goods</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> in the development of an economy. This study investigated the influence of various factors affecting import trade, and use principal component analysis to determine an empirical model for a comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors of import trade of Rwanda using secondary data </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">over the period from 1980-2017. The PCA model</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> showed that Rwanda’s import trade is principally littered with investment fundamental factors, income consumption factors, price factors, inflation factors, and savings factors and the empirical results showed that Rwanda’s import trade is negatively correlated with the investment fundamental and savings factors, the income consumption factors, price factor, and the inflation are positively correlated and therefore the </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">forecast for the period 2018-2025 revealed that the import trade of Rwanda may experience an increase. The implication is that unstable price and currency depreciation cause high income consumption and increased import trade volume. The study advises policy makers on international trade first to </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">pay attention to the accumulation of investment and savings checking if providing support for import trade control and enhance economic security. Second, stabiliz</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">e</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> the price and manage to keep inflation low and stable. </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Third, better </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">focus on improving domestic production by not permitting Rwandan currency (Frw) to lose the worth, thus directly forming the necessity for foreign merchandise</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">for investment purposes to increase the level of production exportation, which might have a giant positive impact on saving culture linked to economic growth. 展开更多
关键词 Principal Component Analysis import trade Influencing Factors Policy-makers
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Sources and Flows of Embodied CO_2 Emissions in Import and Export Trade of China 被引量:1
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作者 LI Yanmei FU Jiafeng +1 位作者 MA Zhanyun YANG Bo 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第2期220-230,共11页
This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project(version 7)database to calculate embodied CO2emissions in bilateral trade between China and other countries(regions)based on input-output methods.The sources and flows ... This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project(version 7)database to calculate embodied CO2emissions in bilateral trade between China and other countries(regions)based on input-output methods.The sources and flows of embodied CO2emissions in import and export trade of China are analyzed.Results show that the flows of embodied CO2emissions in export trade are highly concentrated.The main flows to the United States(US)and Japan account for 1/4 and 1/7 of the total CO2emissions in export trade,respectively.Concentrated flows of total exports and small differences in export structure are the main reasons for the highly concentrated export trade.The sources of embodied CO2emissions in import trade have relatively low concentration.Taiwan Province of China,Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China,US,Russia,Republic of Korea,and Japan account for around 7.72%–12.67%of the total embodied CO2emissions in import trade.The relative dispersion of import sources,the impact of the import structure,and the level of production technology in importing countries caused low concentration of CO2emissions in import trade.Overall,the embodied CO2emissions in the export trade of China are higher than those in import trade.As a result,production-based CO2emissions are higher than consumption-based CO2emissions.The difference of 8.96×108t of CO2,which comes mainly from the US,Japan,Germany,and the United Kingdom,accounts for 58.70%of the total difference.Some suggestions,such as improving energy efficiency,alerting high carbon-intensive industries transfer,expanding the market for sharing risks,and prompting the accounting system of consumption-based CO2emissions,are proposed based on the results. 展开更多
关键词 export trade import trade embodied CO2 emissions INPUT-OUTPUT
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Study on China’s Import Trade and Market in Main Forest Products
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作者 TIANGang 《Chinese Forestry Science and Technology》 2005年第2期44-48,共5页
The forest products trade from other countries to China is predominantly and tremendously increasing and many dealers, officials and scholars are convinced that this trend will continue. This paper covers 5 topics: (1... The forest products trade from other countries to China is predominantly and tremendously increasing and many dealers, officials and scholars are convinced that this trend will continue. This paper covers 5 topics: (1) Analysis on China’s forest resources; (2) Analysis on the supply and demand factors of forest products in China; (3) The import trade of recent main forest products in China; (4) The market characteristics of forest products in China; (5)The development trends of forest products in China. 展开更多
关键词 main forest products import trade MARKET China
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Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on Import and Export Trade Pattern of Soybean in Heilongjiang 被引量:2
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作者 Junde HAN Junjie SONG Tianzhen QI 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2019年第3期1-3,10,共4页
Under the background of Sino-US trade friction,soybean,as an important variety in the important and export trade of agricultural products,has become a key bargaining chip. After the Ministry of Commerce of China annou... Under the background of Sino-US trade friction,soybean,as an important variety in the important and export trade of agricultural products,has become a key bargaining chip. After the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the counter list of agricultural products including soybean,the price fluctuations of domestic soybean and related agricultural products are rapidly expanding. Under the background of SinoUS trade friction,taking the soybean-producing areas in Heilongjiang as an example,the impact of Sino-US trade friction on the important and export pattern of soybean in Heilongjiang was explored to provide a certain theoretical basis for the development of soybean industry in Heilongjiang. 展开更多
关键词 Sino-US trade friction SOYBEAN import and EXPORT trade pattern
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An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between China's Maize Price and Maize Import and Export Trade
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作者 Jiahui HOU Junying WEI 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2016年第9期2209-2211,共3页
Based on the time series of China’s maize trade and domestic maize price,the article analyzes the relationship between domestic maize price and China’s maize international trade by using empirical methods.The result... Based on the time series of China’s maize trade and domestic maize price,the article analyzes the relationship between domestic maize price and China’s maize international trade by using empirical methods.The results show that there is a connection between domestic maize prices and China's maize international trade,but the link is not very close.Domestic maize price is the cause of China’s maize international trade change,but its impact is very limited;China's maize international trade also can make some difference on the domestic maize price.Based on the results of research,the article brings three suggestion and expectation to adjust China’s maize international trade and the cost control reasonably in order to stabilize domestic maize price and maize yield,and to protect domestic grain security. 展开更多
关键词 Maize price Maize import and export trade Grain security
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China’s alfalfa market and imports: Development, trends, and potential impacts of the U.S.-China trade dispute and retaliations 被引量:6
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作者 Qingbin WANG ZOU Yang 《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第4期1149-1158,共10页
This study examines the development and trends of China’s alfalfa market and imports, identifies key factors for the rapid increase in China’s alfalfa imports, and discusses potential impacts of the U.S.-China trade... This study examines the development and trends of China’s alfalfa market and imports, identifies key factors for the rapid increase in China’s alfalfa imports, and discusses potential impacts of the U.S.-China trade dispute and retaliations on the alfalfa markets and trade in both nations. China’s rapid transition toward larger-scale commercial dairy production, with enhanced feed and cost management as well as quality and safety control, and its limited resources for high-quality alfalfa production are key factors for the dramatic increase in its alfalfa imports, from 19 601 metric tons in 2008 to 1.38 million metric tons(mmt) in 2018. While the United States dominated China’s alfalfa imports with an average share of 97.01% from 2007 to 2017, the share dropped to 83.76% in 2018 and 63.28% in January 2019 due to the trade dispute and retaliations started in 2018. China will likely remain a large importer of alfalfa because of both its growing demand and the comparative advantages of imported alfalfa in quality and price, but the imports from the United States will be highly affected by the ongoing trade dispute and negotiations. China is also expected to make more efforts to reduce its dependence on U.S. alfalfa through increased investment in domestic alfalfa production and identification of alternative sources of alfalfa and other hay imports. 展开更多
关键词 China’s ALFALFA importS U.S.alfalfa EXPORTS dairy industrialization U.S.-China trade DISPUTE and retaliations GM-free standards
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The Concrete Analysis of the Change of Import and Export Trade of Chinese Enterprises Is Based on the Perspective of RMB Exchange Rate
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作者 Chao Gao 《Journal of Finance Research》 2021年第1期24-28,共5页
The change of import and export trade of Chinese enterprises actually reflects the appreciation and depreciation of RMB,which are closely related to the total volume of import and export trade of Chinese enterprises a... The change of import and export trade of Chinese enterprises actually reflects the appreciation and depreciation of RMB,which are closely related to the total volume of import and export trade of Chinese enterprises and the formulation of corresponding foreign exchange measures.Generally speaking,the rise of the RMB exchange rate means the appreciation of the RMB is conducive to imports,while the decline of the RMB exchange rate means the depreciation of the RMB and the decline of the price of export commodities,so it has a greater price advantage and is conducive to exports.Chinese enterprises should correctly grasp the rise and fall of RMB exchange rate and carry out import and export trade reasonably when developing abroad. 展开更多
关键词 import and export trade The yuan Exchange rate APPRECIATION DEVALUATION
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Direct Import and Export Trade Booming in Wuxi
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《China's Foreign Trade》 2002年第4期57-57,共1页
关键词 Direct import and Export trade Booming in Wuxi
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NEW REGULATIONS OF CHECKING AND WRITING-OFF FOREIGN EXCHANGE PAYMENT FOR TRADE IMPORT
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《大经贸》 北大核心 1997年第2期94-95,共2页
As from March 1,the State Administration of Exchange Con-trol will implement a new "Provisional Regulations of Checking,Writing-off and Supervising Foreign Exchange Payment for TradeImport".This is an import... As from March 1,the State Administration of Exchange Con-trol will implement a new "Provisional Regulations of Checking,Writing-off and Supervising Foreign Exchange Payment for TradeImport".This is an important measure of reforming China’s for-eign exchange system, and is an afterwards supervising measure ofguaranteeing orderly proceeding of toreign exchange payment fortrade import after the exchange of regular items.One of the purpose of carrying out the new regulations is toform an afterwards supervising mechanism for foreign exchangeimport payment of regular items which guarantees the authenticityof foreign exchange import payment and orderly proceeding theexchange of Renminbi regular items;secondly,through examiningand verifying documents of foreign exchange import payment,veri- 展开更多
关键词 NEW REGULATIONS OF CHECKING AND WRITING-OFF FOREIGN EXCHANGE PAYMENT FOR trade import
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Import and Export Quality Guaranteed for the Steady Development of Foreign Trade
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《China's Foreign Trade》 1997年第1期7-7,共1页
Under the good situation of the reform and opening to the outside world, the rapid development of foreign economic and trade has resulted in enhancing the inspection work of import and export commodities in China. The... Under the good situation of the reform and opening to the outside world, the rapid development of foreign economic and trade has resulted in enhancing the inspection work of import and export commodities in China. The commodity inspection organs at all level adhere to the work policy of guaranteeing quality and offering better service, making import and export commodity quality as their central task. They strictly implement national laws and regulations to serve commodity inspection and management, thus achieving great success. 展开更多
关键词 In import and Export Quality Guaranteed for the Steady Development of Foreign trade
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2025年中国胶合板类产品进出口贸易简析
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作者 尹江苹 黄今 +1 位作者 唐召群 吕斌 《中国人造板》 2026年第2期1-7,共7页
依据中国海关数据库和市场调研,对中国胶合板类产品的进出口贸易规模、产品结构及价格、目标市场等进行了分析。2025年中国胶合板类产品出口量1357.28万m^(3),同比增长3.20%,达到近10年新高;产品结构持续优化,细木工板、竹胶合板出口量... 依据中国海关数据库和市场调研,对中国胶合板类产品的进出口贸易规模、产品结构及价格、目标市场等进行了分析。2025年中国胶合板类产品出口量1357.28万m^(3),同比增长3.20%,达到近10年新高;产品结构持续优化,细木工板、竹胶合板出口量增长显著,彰显了从“规模扩张”向“质量提升”迈进的韧性,出口市场多元化;进口市场经历了结构性调整,进口量33.12万m^(3),同比下降58.23%,进口来源集中度高,存在一定的供应风险。在胶合板类产品进出口贸易未来发展中,产品结构调整、创新研发持续深入、贸易风险规避以及品牌建设将是中国胶合板类产品贸易稳定发展的必要保障。 展开更多
关键词 胶合板 细木工板 单板层积材 竹胶合板 进出口贸易
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全球硅灰石供需格局与中国进出口贸易分析
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作者 李渴 彭春艳 +2 位作者 沈建军 魏博 左增杰 《矿冶》 2026年第2期295-300,共6页
本文分析了2020—2024年全球硅灰石供需格局及中国进出口情况。从供给格局看,全球硅灰石供给主要来自中国、芬兰、印度、墨西哥、美国等,2024年中国硅灰石产量为80万t,在全球供应链占据绝对的主导地位。近年来,墨西哥、西班牙等国的产... 本文分析了2020—2024年全球硅灰石供需格局及中国进出口情况。从供给格局看,全球硅灰石供给主要来自中国、芬兰、印度、墨西哥、美国等,2024年中国硅灰石产量为80万t,在全球供应链占据绝对的主导地位。近年来,墨西哥、西班牙等国的产量有较为明显的增长。从产品附加值看,中国硅灰石产品以中低端为主,而芬兰、德国、韩国、美国等国以生产高端产品为主。从消费市场看,中国、印度等国所在的亚太地区是最大市场,需求主要来自陶瓷、塑料、建筑等传统行业,北美、欧洲市场侧重油漆涂料、塑料橡胶等高端领域。2020—2024年,中国硅灰石出口总量的复合年增长率为7.46%,表明各国对中国产品的依赖加深。与此同时,进口均价的复合年增长率高达9.05%,这显示中国虽仍依赖高附加值产品的进口,但市场对产品质量的要求有显著提高。根据中国硅灰石进口数据,推测判断中国已将部分高端进口需求从美国、德国转向了韩国、芬兰等国。针对未来发展,建议从加强政策引导并完善矿产资源保障体系,促进产学研合作,推动企业整合,支持高端产品标准制定,引导上下游协同创新,增加研发投入,重点突破表面改性、超细粉碎等精深加工技术,摆脱低价竞争,瞄准国际高端市场需求,开发高附加值产品,实现从规模扩张向质量提升的转型。 展开更多
关键词 硅灰石 资源储量 供需格局 进出口贸易 发展建议
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绿色制造业进出口贸易的碳减排效应——基于清洁能源设备制造业的分析
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作者 吴莉 李昭华 陈峥嵘 《技术经济与管理研究》 北大核心 2026年第1期9-16,共8页
清洁能源设备制造业是实现“双碳”目标的核心产业。选取2001—2023年我国海关进出口数据与30个省份的碳排放数据,运用空间计量方法,实证分析清洁能源设备制造业进出口对碳排放的影响。研究发现:清洁能源设备制造业的进出口均与碳排放... 清洁能源设备制造业是实现“双碳”目标的核心产业。选取2001—2023年我国海关进出口数据与30个省份的碳排放数据,运用空间计量方法,实证分析清洁能源设备制造业进出口对碳排放的影响。研究发现:清洁能源设备制造业的进出口均与碳排放正相关。该结论在产品和区域分析中呈现异质性:风能设备、光伏设备的进出口和锂离子等储能设备出口均与碳排放正相关,而锂离子等储能设备的进口与碳排放负相关;东部地区和西部地区的清洁能源设备进出口均与碳排放正相关,而东北地区和中部地区的清洁能源设备进口与碳排放负相关。 展开更多
关键词 清洁能源设备制造业 进出口贸易 碳排放 碳减排效应 绿色制造业
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高水平开放下进口增长与制造业产业链现代化
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作者 郑旭芸 隋博文 《技术经济与管理研究》 北大核心 2026年第3期152-158,共7页
高水平开放助益新发展格局加快形成,赋能中国式现代化建设。选取我国2013—2023年30个省级面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型,分析高水平开放下进口增长对制造业产业链现代化发展的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:进口增长对制造业产业链现代... 高水平开放助益新发展格局加快形成,赋能中国式现代化建设。选取我国2013—2023年30个省级面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型,分析高水平开放下进口增长对制造业产业链现代化发展的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:进口增长对制造业产业链现代化发展具有显著的正向促进作用。进口贸易通过优化产业结构和提升产业集聚水平,推动制造业产业链现代化发展。相比劳动密集型产品,资本和技术密集型产品进口对制造业产业链现代化发展的促进作用更强。进口贸易对制造业产业链现代化发展的推动作用在经济中等发达地区和欠发达地区比较明显。研究对高水平开放下推动我国制造业产业链现代化发展具有重要启示。 展开更多
关键词 进口贸易 制造业 产业链现代化 要素密集 产业集聚
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中国国际进口博览会的贸易效应研究——来自微观产品层面的证据
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作者 张鹏龙 崔镇关 张晓明 《亚太经济》 北大核心 2026年第1期127-151,共25页
贸易博览会是各国展示新产品、开拓新市场、共享全球发展机遇的重要平台,对于推动新质生产力的发展具有重要作用。通过使用中国产品层面的进出口数据,利用双重差分方法实证检验了进博会对中国国际贸易规模的影响。研究发现,进博会使中... 贸易博览会是各国展示新产品、开拓新市场、共享全球发展机遇的重要平台,对于推动新质生产力的发展具有重要作用。通过使用中国产品层面的进出口数据,利用双重差分方法实证检验了进博会对中国国际贸易规模的影响。研究发现,进博会使中国进口和出口产品规模分别显著提升了12.2%和4.5%。从异质性的角度来看,在地区层面,进博会主要促进了中国从欧美等发达国家的进口规模增长,并促进了中国对南方国家的出口规模增长;在产品层面,进博会既促进了中国对原材料等中间品的进口,又促进了中国对机器等高科技产品的进口,对出口的提升效应则主要聚焦制成品。机制分析表明,降低生产成本和贸易成本是进博会发挥贸易提升效应的两大重要机制。进一步推动进博会发展对于中国建设贸易强国和文化强国具有重要意义。 展开更多
关键词 文化强国建设 高水平开放 新质生产力 中国国际进口博览会 贸易效应
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中国与东盟进出口贸易结构对进出口贸易额增长的贡献——基于多部门经济模型与偏离份额模型
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作者 潘柳榕 李妮 黄林 《资源与产业》 2026年第1期92-107,共16页
在全球经济一体化背景下,中国与东盟的进出口贸易日益成为推动区域经济增长的重要引擎。论文运用多部门经济模型和偏离份额分析法,系统测量中国与东盟进出口贸易中资源密集型、劳动密集型与资本密集型贸易结构变化对贸易增长的贡献,并... 在全球经济一体化背景下,中国与东盟的进出口贸易日益成为推动区域经济增长的重要引擎。论文运用多部门经济模型和偏离份额分析法,系统测量中国与东盟进出口贸易中资源密集型、劳动密集型与资本密集型贸易结构变化对贸易增长的贡献,并通过固定效应回归模型进行实证检验。研究发现:中国-东盟进出口贸易结构呈现多样化演变趋势,其中资本密集型贸易以文莱和越南增长较为明显,劳动密集型贸易受劳动力成本与转移的影响呈现波动趋势,资源密集型贸易也是波动趋势较为显著。不同国家在结构贡献率与竞争力表现上差异显著,如越南、马来西亚等国家资本密集型贸易贡献率较高,泰国、印尼等国家资源密集型贸易贡献率波动巨大。实证结果显示,资源密集型与资本密集型产业结构、人均GDP、人口规模对贸易增长具有正向影响,劳动密集型产业结构对贸易增长呈正向影响但不显著,地理距离则为显著负面因素。基于此,论文提出以下政策建议:1)深化资源合作与农矿复合开发,提升资源利用效率;2)推动劳动密集型产业有序转移与“数字劳工平台”建设,实现技能共享与产业协同;3)加快资本密集型产业投资合作与技术创新,优化贸易机制,拓展新兴产业发展空间;4)因国施策,推动产业多元化与结构优化,提升区域整体贸易竞争力,实现中国-东盟经贸合作的高质量发展。 展开更多
关键词 中国-东盟 进出口贸易结构 贸易增长贡献 偏离份额模型
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中欧班列开通对我国体育用品进出口贸易的影响——基于准自然实验的评估
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作者 向菊湘榕 陈颇 《吉林体育学院学报》 2026年第1期73-81,共9页
随着全球贸易发展,体育用品贸易在国际贸易中的地位日益凸显。中欧班列作为一种国际运输新通道,为我国体育用品进出口贸易带来新机遇。本文以中国2010—2022年30个省市(自治区)的面板数据为基础,运用多期双重差分模型(多期DID)评估中欧... 随着全球贸易发展,体育用品贸易在国际贸易中的地位日益凸显。中欧班列作为一种国际运输新通道,为我国体育用品进出口贸易带来新机遇。本文以中国2010—2022年30个省市(自治区)的面板数据为基础,运用多期双重差分模型(多期DID)评估中欧班列开通对我国体育用品进出口贸易的影响效应。研究表明,中欧班列开通显著促进体育用品进出口贸易。出口方面,中欧班列开通能借助运输时效和成本优势,助力企业拓展海外市场,提升产品国际竞争力;进口方面,中欧班列开通能优化进口渠道,加速国外优质体育用品和先进技术引入,推动体育产业升级。异质性分析表明,中欧班列开通对中西部地区体育用品进出口促进作用显著,对东部地区出口影响不明显,但在进口上有一定促进作用。 展开更多
关键词 体育用品 进出口贸易 中欧班列开通
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效率与脆弱的交织:外部供应网络中心化对中国农产品进口韧性的影响研究
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作者 张琳琛 刁雨飞 《世界农业》 2026年第1期28-42,共15页
正确认识和研判外部供应网络中心化对中国农产品进口韧性的影响,对新发展格局下中国更高水平的粮食安全保障以及开放型经济稳定具有重要意义。本文基于1995—2022年190种HS-4位行业产品贸易网络特征数据,从理论和实证层面系统解析外部... 正确认识和研判外部供应网络中心化对中国农产品进口韧性的影响,对新发展格局下中国更高水平的粮食安全保障以及开放型经济稳定具有重要意义。本文基于1995—2022年190种HS-4位行业产品贸易网络特征数据,从理论和实证层面系统解析外部供应网络中心化对中国农产品进口韧性的影响。研究发现:外部供应网络格局的中心化集聚会以牺牲弹性为代价,对中国农产品进口韧性具有显著负向作用,且对中国农产品进口韧性的影响在不同行业类型、外生冲击时间段以及不同供应网络中心化程度下存在显著异质性影响特征;以区域贸易协定深度和“一带一路”合作程度为代表的制度型开放有助于缓解外部供应网络中心化对中国农产品进口韧性的负外部性作用;外部供应网络中心化通过在贸易效率层面发挥规模供应效应和关联存续效应两种机制,提高中国农产品进口韧性;但效率驱动的外部供应网络中心化也会在贸易脆弱层面产生竞争扩散效应、结构依赖效应和价格传导效应三种机制,削弱中国农产品进口韧性。 展开更多
关键词 供应网络中心化 农产品贸易 效率与脆弱 进口韧性
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Water pollution footprints induced by industrial import and export in China
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作者 Yutao Lei Li Su Menglin Zheng 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 2018年第2期149-158,共10页
With the rapid development of foreign trade in China, industrial import and export has been an absolute subject in recent years. The huge trade surplus of import and export trade of industrial products brings not only... With the rapid development of foreign trade in China, industrial import and export has been an absolute subject in recent years. The huge trade surplus of import and export trade of industrial products brings not only high profits, but also pollution costs as well. Based on the concept of water pollution footprints(WPFs), this study applies the input-output method and calculates pollutant-producing coefficients of 20 major industrial sectors in China and investigates the WPFs caused by the import and export trades of these industrial sectors. The research results show that WPF resulting from exports exceeds that of imports from 2011 to 2015 in China. The net inflow of pollution footprint is mainly from paper mills, printing and stationery manufacturing, and textile industry; whereas a great number of WPFs are transferred to other countries by these sectors,such as metal mining and dressing industry and oil and natural gas exploitation industry. 展开更多
关键词 Industrial products import and export trade pollution footprint
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