Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epide...Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epidemic and calculated concentration index to measure economic-related inequality.Importation risk into China was evaluated and ranked by using risk matrix method and Borda count method,respectively.Results As of July 29,2022,of 79 countries or territories,39(49.37%,39/79),17(21.52%,17/79),6(7.59%,6/79),12(15.19%,12/79),and 5(6.33%,5/79)country or territories identified cases<10,10-,51-,101-,and>1,000.There were economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of cases(the concentration index=0.42,P=0.027),and the inequality disadvantageous to the rich(pro-poor).There were 12(15.38%,12/78),15(19.23%,15/78),6(7.69%,6/78),and 45(57.69%,45/78)countries or territories with extremely high,high,moderate,and low importation risk.United States and France ranked first with the highest Borda points of 156,and counts of zero.Conclusion Of 78 countries or territories,the key attention need be paid to the United States and France,relatively.As the epidemic progresses,preparing prevention and control measures to further reduce importation risk was crucial.展开更多
Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemi...Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976–2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the diseaseoutbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively.Results From 1976–2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases(14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate(85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease.The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk(23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone,Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co te d’Ivoire.Conclusion China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.展开更多
In the present article we study the generalized laws of importation and crossmigrativity based on(D,N)-implications.On the one hand,we consider the generalized law of importation I(T(x,α),y)=I(x,J(α,y)),when T is co...In the present article we study the generalized laws of importation and crossmigrativity based on(D,N)-implications.On the one hand,we consider the generalized law of importation I(T(x,α),y)=I(x,J(α,y)),when T is concretized as a fuzzy conjunction C,I and J are concretized as(D,N)-implications generated by a fuzzy disjunction D and a fuzzy negation N.On the other hand,we discuss the cross-migrativity of fuzzy disjunctions over fuzzy implications,that is,I(x,D(y,z))=D(y,I(x,z)),where I is a fuzzy implication,D is a fuzzy disjunction.In addition,we study the relationship between the(α-)cross-migrative of(I,D)and the(α-)cross-law of importation(I,ID,N,C).展开更多
Foreign and domestic technologies play different roles in a country's innovation. In recent years, Chinese firms have spent less on importing foreign technology and more on acquiring domestic technology. Based on ...Foreign and domestic technologies play different roles in a country's innovation. In recent years, Chinese firms have spent less on importing foreign technology and more on acquiring domestic technology. Based on the panel data model, state space model(SSM) and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that the purchase of domestic technology plays a critical role in the innovation of high-tech firms with an elasticity coefficient higher than that of technology importation before 2010. China's high-tech firms can effectively absorb purchased domestic technology, which also brings about an increase in their independent R&D input and contributes more to innovation output than imported technology. Performance of technology importation is lackluster but shows an improving trend. Technology importation is not correlated with innovation output and has a substitutive effect with independent R&D input. China is yet to enhance its absorption of imported technology. Elasticity coefficient of technology importation turned positive in 2007 and increased year by year. China should promote synergy between technology importation and domestic technology acquisition.展开更多
Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is mon...Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is monthly data on SHC importation from 1st January, 2014 to 31st December, 2016. Data was analyzed using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) was the best fit for the SHC importation since its errors were smaller than those of the SES, DES and TES. The four error measures used were Root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean percentage error (MPE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasts were also produced using the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model for the next 18 months from January 2017. Although there is percentage increase of 90.6% from November 2015 to December 2016, the SHC importation generally is on the decrease in Zambia with percentage change of 59.5% from January 2014 to December 2016. The forecasts also show a gradual percentage decrease of 1.12% by June 2018. These results are more useful to policy and decision makers of Government departments such as Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) and Road Development Agency (RDA) in a bid to plan and execute their duties effectively.展开更多
Objective: To ascertain the role of imported cases and serotypes on dengue outbreaks in Taiwan which have been sporadic yet highly volatile during the past two decades, exhibiting record-breaking magnitude in recent y...Objective: To ascertain the role of imported cases and serotypes on dengue outbreaks in Taiwan which have been sporadic yet highly volatile during the past two decades, exhibiting record-breaking magnitude in recent years. Methods: Confirmed case and serotype data from Taiwan Centers for Disease Control during 1998-2017 were fully examined, with fitting of weekly and daily case data of each city/county to a mathematical model to pinpoint the waves of cases and their locations. Moreover, we quantify the timing of turning point and transmission potential of each wave and determine its circulating serotype, to ascertain any pattern or connection between the variations in circulating serotypes and the magnitude/transmissibility of outbreak. Results: While the number of imported case increased steadily during past two decades, the yearly number of indigenous cases fluctuated wildly. Moreover, while yearly percentages of serotypes for imported cases remains steady, that of indigenous cases does not exhibit any clear pattern. There was at least one wave of reported cases somewhere in Taiwan every year from 1998 to 2015, except in 2016-2017. The effective reproduction number R for all waves in all locations ranged from 1.14 to 2.87, with the exception of two Tainan waves, in 2010(3.95) and 2015(6.84). Four major outbreaks of over 2000 cases reveal circulation of one dominant serotype. Conclusions: Correlation between imported cases and indigenous outbreak prove to be difficult to ascertain, even with the availability of serotype data. However, although there had been occasional co-circulation of serotypes in one location, and for some years with different serotypes circulating in different locations, all major outbreaks of over 2 000 cases during the past two decades are due to circulation of mainly a single serotype, perhaps indicating greater transmission potential with one dominating serotype.展开更多
Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importa...Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk,border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese mainland.Methods We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11,2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from Global.health and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation Guide.We constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine requirement.And we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men,considering different transmissibility,population immunity and population activity.Results We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations respectively.Under the quarantine policy,15-19% of imported infections would remain undetected.Once a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity,the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%,and would rise to>95% with over six cases.Conclusions Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COvID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations prominently.However,the risk could be sub-stantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic level.Mpox could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.展开更多
We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant.By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originatin...We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant.By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community,we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community.We find that after an initial seeding,the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation.We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures,quarantine and travel interruptions.We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates,while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.展开更多
Protein aggregates,mitochondrial import stress and neurodegenerative disorders:A salient hallmark of several neurodegenerative diseases,including Parkinson’s disease,is the abundance of protein aggregates(Goiran et a...Protein aggregates,mitochondrial import stress and neurodegenerative disorders:A salient hallmark of several neurodegenerative diseases,including Parkinson’s disease,is the abundance of protein aggregates(Goiran et al.,2022).This molecular event is believed to lead to activation of stress pathways ultimately resulting in cellular dysfunction(Eldeeb et al.,2022).Accordingly,many lines of research investigations focused on dampening the formation of protein aggregates or augmenting the clearance of protein aggregates as a potential therapeutic strategy to counteract the progression of neurodegenerative diseases,albeit with little success(Costa-Mattioli and Walter,2020).Cell stress cues such as the accumulation of protein aggregates lead to the activation of stress response pathways that aid cells in responding to the damage.Despite the notion that the transient activation of these pathways helps cells cope with stressors,persistent activation can induce unwanted apoptosis of cells and reduce overall tissue strength as well as lead to an accumulation of aggregation-prone proteins(Hetz and Papa,2018).Mutations in proteins involved in stress signaling termination can cause conditions like ataxia and early-onset dementia(Conroy et al.,2014).Therefore,it is crucial for stress response signaling to be turned off once conditions have improved.Nevertheless,the mechanisms by which cells silence these signals are still elusive.展开更多
Introduction:The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)Omicron variant is the dominant circulating strain worldwide.To assess the importation of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the mainland of China during...Introduction:The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)Omicron variant is the dominant circulating strain worldwide.To assess the importation of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the mainland of China during the Omicron epidemic,the genomic surveillance data of SARS-CoV-2 from imported coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases in the mainland of China during the first half of 2022 were analyzed.Methods:Sequences submitted from January to July 2022,with a collection date before June 30,2022,were incorporated.The proportions of SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as the relationships between the origin and destination of each Omicron imported case were analyzed.Results:4,946 sequences of imported cases were submitted from 27 provincial-level administrative divisions(PLADs),and the median submission interval was within 1 month after collection.In 3,851 Omicron sequences with good quality,1 recombinant(XU)and 4 subvariants under monitoring(BA.4,BA.5,BA.2.12.1,and BA.2.13)were recorded,and 3 of them(BA.4,BA.5,and BA.2.12.1)caused local transmissions in the mainland of China later than that recorded in the surveillance.Omicron subvariants dominated in the first half of 2022 and shifted from BA.1 to BA.2 then to BA.4 and BA.5.The percentage of BA.2 in the imported SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data was far higher than that in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data(GISAID).The imported cases from Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China,accounted for 32.30%of Omicron cases sampled,and 98.71%of them were BA.2.Conclusions:The Omicron variant showed the intra-Omicron evolution in the first half of 2022,and all of the Omicron subvariants were introduced into the mainland of China multiple times from multiple different locations.展开更多
In the practice of healthcare,patient-reported outcomes(PROs)and PRO measures(PROMs)are used as an attempt to observe the changes in complex clinical situations.They guide us in making decisions based on the evidence ...In the practice of healthcare,patient-reported outcomes(PROs)and PRO measures(PROMs)are used as an attempt to observe the changes in complex clinical situations.They guide us in making decisions based on the evidence regarding patient care by recording the change in outcomes for a particular treatment to a given condition and finally to understand whether a patient will benefit from a particular treatment and to quantify the treatment effect.For any PROM to be usable in health care,we need it to be reliable,encapsulating the points of interest with the potential to detect any real change.Using structured outcome measures routinely in clinical practice helps the physician to understand the functional limitation of a patient that would otherwise not be clear in an office interview,and this allows the physician and patient to have a meaningful conver-sation as well as a customized plan for each patient.Having mentioned the rationale and the benefits of PROMs,understanding the quantification process is crucial before embarking on management decisions.A better interpretation of change needs to identify the treatment effect based on clinical relevance for a given condition.There are a multiple set of measurement indices to serve this effect and most of them are used interchangeably without clear demarcation on their differences.This article details the various quantification metrics used to evaluate the treatment effect using PROMs,their limitations and the scope of usage and implementation in clinical practice.展开更多
Objective This study reports the first imported case of Lassa fever(LF)in China.Laboratory detection and molecular epidemiological analysis of the Lassa virus(LASV)from this case offer valuable insights for the preven...Objective This study reports the first imported case of Lassa fever(LF)in China.Laboratory detection and molecular epidemiological analysis of the Lassa virus(LASV)from this case offer valuable insights for the prevention and control of LF.Methods Samples of cerebrospinal fluid(CSF),blood,urine,saliva,and environmental materials were collected from the patient and their close contacts for LASV nucleotide detection.Whole-genome sequencing was performed on positive samples to analyze the genetic characteristics of the virus.Results LASV was detected in the patient’s CSF,blood,and urine,while all samples from close contacts and the environment tested negative.The virus belongs to the lineage IV strain and shares the highest homology with strains from Sierra Leone.The variability in the glycoprotein complex(GPC)among different strains ranged from 3.9%to 15.1%,higher than previously reported for the seven known lineages.Amino acid mutation analysis revealed multiple mutations within the GPC immunogenic epitopes,increasing strain diversity and potentially impacting immune response.Conclusion The case was confirmed through nucleotide detection,with no evidence of secondary transmission or viral spread.The LASV strain identified belongs to lineage IV,with broader GPC variability than previously reported.Mutations in the immune-related sites of GPC may affect immune responses,necessitating heightened vigilance regarding the virus.展开更多
The traditional academic warning methods for students in higher vocational colleges are relatively backward,single,and have many influencing factors,which have a limited effect on improving their learning ability.A da...The traditional academic warning methods for students in higher vocational colleges are relatively backward,single,and have many influencing factors,which have a limited effect on improving their learning ability.A data set was established by collecting academic warning data of students in a certain university.The importance of the school,major,grade,and warning level for the students was analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient,random forest variable importance,and permutation importance.It was found that the characteristic of the major has a great impact on the academic warning level.Countermeasures such as dynamic adjustment of majors,reform of cognitive adaptation of courses,full-cycle academic support,and data-driven precise intervention were proposed to provide theoretical support and practical paths for universities to improve the efficiency of academic warning and enhance students’learning ability.展开更多
Studies on plant diversity are usually based on the total number of species in a community.However,few studies have examined species richness(SR)of different plant life forms in a community along largescale environmen...Studies on plant diversity are usually based on the total number of species in a community.However,few studies have examined species richness(SR)of different plant life forms in a community along largescale environmental gradients.Particularly,the relative importance(RIV)of different plant life forms in a community and how they vary with environmental variables are still unclear.To fill these gaps,we determined plant diversity of ephemeral plants,annual herbs,perennial herbs,and woody plants from 187 sites across drylands in China.The SR patterns of herbaceous plants,especially perennial herbs,and their RIV in plant communities increased with increasing precipitation and soil nutrient content;however,the RIV of annual herbs was not altered along these gradients.The SR and RIV of ephemeral plants were affected mainly by precipitation seasonality.The SR of woody plants had a unimodal relationship with air temperature and exhibited the highest RIV and SR percentage in plant communities under the harshest environments.An obvious shift emerged in plant community composition,SR and their critical impact factors at 238.5 mm of mean annual precipitation(MAP).In mesic regions(>238.5 mm),herbs were the dominant species,and the SR displayed a relatively slow decreasing rate with increasing aridity,which was mediated mainly by MAP and soil nutrients.In arid regions(<238.5 mm),woody plants were the dominant species,and the SR displayed a relatively fast decreasing rate with increasing aridity,which was mediated mainly by climate variables,especially precipitation.Our findings highlight the importance of comparative life form studies in community structure and biodiversity,as their responses to gradients differed substantially on a large scale.展开更多
Lassa fever(LF)is an acute viral hemorrhagic disease caused by Lassa virus(LASV)[1].LASV is transmitted to humans primarily through direct contact with infected Mastomys rodents,or items polluted by infected rodents[2...Lassa fever(LF)is an acute viral hemorrhagic disease caused by Lassa virus(LASV)[1].LASV is transmitted to humans primarily through direct contact with infected Mastomys rodents,or items polluted by infected rodents[2].LF is difficult to diagnose without laboratory tests because of its various symptoms,ranging from no symptoms to multiple organ failure and death[2].West Africa is the traditionally endemic regions for LF,with confirmed and sporadic outbreaks reported in countries,such as Nigeria,Burkina Faso and Guinea[2].LF cases have also been detected in some non-endemic regions due to international travels[3,4],for example,the United Kingdom found LF imported cases from Mali[5].This indicates that the countries are exposed to imported risks of LF due to the globalization.The recent publication[6]reported the first imported cases of LF in China,providing important insights into the understanding and control of the emerging infectious disease.展开更多
Identifying key nodes in complex networks is crucial for understanding and controlling their dynamics. Traditional centrality measures often fall short in capturing the multifaceted roles of nodes within these network...Identifying key nodes in complex networks is crucial for understanding and controlling their dynamics. Traditional centrality measures often fall short in capturing the multifaceted roles of nodes within these networks. The Page Rank algorithm, widely recognized for ranking web pages, offers a more nuanced approach by considering the importance of connected nodes. However, existing methods generally overlook the geometric properties of networks, which can provide additional insights into their structure and functionality. In this paper, we propose a novel method named Curv-Page Rank(C-PR), which integrates network curvature and Page Rank to identify influential nodes in complex networks. By leveraging the geometric insights provided by curvature alongside structural properties, C-PR offers a more comprehensive measure of a node's influence. Our approach is particularly effective in networks with community structures, where it excels at pinpointing bridge nodes critical for maintaining connectivity and facilitating information flow. We validate the effectiveness of C-PR through extensive experiments. The results demonstrate that C-PR outperforms traditional centrality-based and Page Rank methods in identifying critical nodes. Our findings offer fresh insights into the structural importance of nodes across diverse network configurations, highlighting the potential of incorporating geometric properties into network analysis.展开更多
BACKGROUND The peritumoral region possesses attributes that promote cancer growth and progression.However,the potential prognostic biomarkers in this region remain relatively underexplored in radiomics.AIM To investig...BACKGROUND The peritumoral region possesses attributes that promote cancer growth and progression.However,the potential prognostic biomarkers in this region remain relatively underexplored in radiomics.AIM To investigate the prognostic value and importance of peritumoral radiomics in locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC).METHODS This retrospective study included 409 patients with biopsy-confirmed LARC treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgically.Patients were divided into training(n=273)and validation(n=136)sets.Based on intratumoral and peritumoral radiomic features extracted from pretreatment axial high-resolution small-field-of-view T2-weighted images,multivariate Cox models for progression-free survival(PFS)prediction were developed with or without clinicoradiological features and evaluated with Harrell’s concordance index(C-index),calibration curve,and decision curve analyses.Risk stratification,Kaplan-Meier analysis,and permutation feature importance analysis were performed.RESULTS The comprehensive integrated clinical-radiological-omics model(ModelICRO)integrating seven peritumoral,three intratumoral,and four clinicoradiological features achieved the highest C-indices(0.836 and 0.801 in the training and validation sets,respectively).This model showed robust calibration and better clinical net benefits,effectively distinguished high-risk from low-risk patients(PFS:97.2%vs 67.6%and 95.4%vs 64.8%in the training and validation sets,respectively;both P<0.001).Three most influential predictors in the comprehensive ModelICRO were,in order,a peritumoral,an intratumoral,and a clinicoradiological feature.Notably,the peritumoral model outperformed the intratumoral model(C-index:0.754 vs 0.670;P=0.015);peritumoral features significantly enhanced the performance of models based on clinicoradiological or intratumoral features or their combinations.CONCLUSION Peritumoral radiomics holds greater prognostic value than intratumoral radiomics for predicting PFS in LARC.The comprehensive model may serve as a reliable tool for better stratification and management postoperatively.展开更多
Converting CO_(2)with green hydrogen to methanol as a carbon-neutral liquid fuel is a promising route for the long-term storage and distribution of intermittent renewable energy.Nevertheless,attaining highly efficient...Converting CO_(2)with green hydrogen to methanol as a carbon-neutral liquid fuel is a promising route for the long-term storage and distribution of intermittent renewable energy.Nevertheless,attaining highly efficient methanol synthesis catalysts from the vast composition space remains a significant challenge.Here we present a machine learning framework for accelerating the development of high space-time yield(STY)methanol synthesis catalysts.A database of methanol synthesis catalysts has been compiled,consisting of catalyst composition,preparation parameters,structural characteristics,reaction conditions and their corresponding catalytic performance.A methodology for constructing catalyst features based on the intrinsic physicochemical properties of the catalyst components has been developed,which significantly reduced the data dimensionality and enhanced the efficiency of machine learning operations.Two high-precision machine learning prediction models for the activities and product selectivity of catalysts were trained and obtained.Using this machine learning framework,an efficient search was achieved within the catalyst composition space,leading to the successful identification of high STY multielement oxide methanol synthesis catalysts.Notably,the CuZnAlTi catalyst achieved high STYs of 0.49 and 0.65 g_(MeOH)/(g_(catalyst)h)for CO_(2)and CO hydrogenation to methanol at 250℃,respectively,and the STY was further increased to 2.63 g_(Me OH)/(g_(catalyst)h)in CO and CO_(2)co-hydrogenation.展开更多
The minimal clinically important difference(MCID)represents a pivotal metric in bridging the gap between statistical significance and clinical relevance,addressing the direct impact of medical interventions from the p...The minimal clinically important difference(MCID)represents a pivotal metric in bridging the gap between statistical significance and clinical relevance,addressing the direct impact of medical interventions from the patient's perspective.This comprehensive review analyzes the evolution,applications,and challenges of MCID across medical specialties,emphasizing its necessity in ensuring that clinical outcomes not only demonstrate statistical significance but also offer genuine clinical utility that aligns with patient expectations and needs.We discuss the evolution of MCID since its inception in the 1980s,its current applications across various medical specialties,and the methodologies used in its calculation,highlighting both anchor-based and distribution-based approaches.Furthermore,the paper delves into the challenges associated with the application of MCID,such as methodological variability and the interpretation difficulties that arise in clinical settings.Recommendations for the future include standardizing MCID calculation methods,enhancing patient involvement in setting MCID thresholds,and extending research to incorporate diverse global perspectives.These steps are critical to refining the role of MCID in patient-centered healthcare,addressing existing gaps in methodology and interpretation,and ensuring that medical interventions lead to significant,patient-perceived improvements.展开更多
基金partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 72122001,71934002]the National Key Research and Development Project of China[grant number 2021ZD0114101,2021ZD0114104,2021ZD0114105]+2 种基金National Statistical Science Research Project[grant numbers 2021LY038]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities supported by Global Center for Infectious Disease and Policy Research&Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group,of Peking University[grant number 202204]National Science and Technology Project on Development Assistance for Technology,Developing China-ASEAN Public Health Research and Development Collaborating Center[grant number KY202101004]
文摘Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epidemic and calculated concentration index to measure economic-related inequality.Importation risk into China was evaluated and ranked by using risk matrix method and Borda count method,respectively.Results As of July 29,2022,of 79 countries or territories,39(49.37%,39/79),17(21.52%,17/79),6(7.59%,6/79),12(15.19%,12/79),and 5(6.33%,5/79)country or territories identified cases<10,10-,51-,101-,and>1,000.There were economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of cases(the concentration index=0.42,P=0.027),and the inequality disadvantageous to the rich(pro-poor).There were 12(15.38%,12/78),15(19.23%,15/78),6(7.69%,6/78),and 45(57.69%,45/78)countries or territories with extremely high,high,moderate,and low importation risk.United States and France ranked first with the highest Borda points of 156,and counts of zero.Conclusion Of 78 countries or territories,the key attention need be paid to the United States and France,relatively.As the epidemic progresses,preparing prevention and control measures to further reduce importation risk was crucial.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant No.71934002,Grant No.72122001]。
文摘Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976–2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the diseaseoutbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively.Results From 1976–2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases(14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate(85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease.The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk(23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone,Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co te d’Ivoire.Conclusion China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12471438,12001413)the Natural Science Basic Research Plan Project of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.2022JM-048)the Shaanxi Fundamental Science Research Project for Mathematics and Physics(Grant No.23JSQ043)。
文摘In the present article we study the generalized laws of importation and crossmigrativity based on(D,N)-implications.On the one hand,we consider the generalized law of importation I(T(x,α),y)=I(x,J(α,y)),when T is concretized as a fuzzy conjunction C,I and J are concretized as(D,N)-implications generated by a fuzzy disjunction D and a fuzzy negation N.On the other hand,we discuss the cross-migrativity of fuzzy disjunctions over fuzzy implications,that is,I(x,D(y,z))=D(y,I(x,z)),where I is a fuzzy implication,D is a fuzzy disjunction.In addition,we study the relationship between the(α-)cross-migrative of(I,D)and the(α-)cross-law of importation(I,ID,N,C).
基金The Humanities and Social Sciences Planning Fund Project of the Ministry of Education:Study on the Determinants and Countermeasures of Coordinated Innovation Depth(17YJA630125)Philosophical and Social Science Planning Project of Zhejiang Province:Study on the Evaluation System and Implementation Paths for All-Round Innovation in Zhejiang Province(17NDJC107YB)
文摘Foreign and domestic technologies play different roles in a country's innovation. In recent years, Chinese firms have spent less on importing foreign technology and more on acquiring domestic technology. Based on the panel data model, state space model(SSM) and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that the purchase of domestic technology plays a critical role in the innovation of high-tech firms with an elasticity coefficient higher than that of technology importation before 2010. China's high-tech firms can effectively absorb purchased domestic technology, which also brings about an increase in their independent R&D input and contributes more to innovation output than imported technology. Performance of technology importation is lackluster but shows an improving trend. Technology importation is not correlated with innovation output and has a substitutive effect with independent R&D input. China is yet to enhance its absorption of imported technology. Elasticity coefficient of technology importation turned positive in 2007 and increased year by year. China should promote synergy between technology importation and domestic technology acquisition.
文摘Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is monthly data on SHC importation from 1st January, 2014 to 31st December, 2016. Data was analyzed using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) was the best fit for the SHC importation since its errors were smaller than those of the SES, DES and TES. The four error measures used were Root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean percentage error (MPE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasts were also produced using the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model for the next 18 months from January 2017. Although there is percentage increase of 90.6% from November 2015 to December 2016, the SHC importation generally is on the decrease in Zambia with percentage change of 59.5% from January 2014 to December 2016. The forecasts also show a gradual percentage decrease of 1.12% by June 2018. These results are more useful to policy and decision makers of Government departments such as Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) and Road Development Agency (RDA) in a bid to plan and execute their duties effectively.
基金supported by funding from grants from Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST 103-2314-B-039-010-MY3)China Medical UniversityTaiwan(CMU106-S-02)
文摘Objective: To ascertain the role of imported cases and serotypes on dengue outbreaks in Taiwan which have been sporadic yet highly volatile during the past two decades, exhibiting record-breaking magnitude in recent years. Methods: Confirmed case and serotype data from Taiwan Centers for Disease Control during 1998-2017 were fully examined, with fitting of weekly and daily case data of each city/county to a mathematical model to pinpoint the waves of cases and their locations. Moreover, we quantify the timing of turning point and transmission potential of each wave and determine its circulating serotype, to ascertain any pattern or connection between the variations in circulating serotypes and the magnitude/transmissibility of outbreak. Results: While the number of imported case increased steadily during past two decades, the yearly number of indigenous cases fluctuated wildly. Moreover, while yearly percentages of serotypes for imported cases remains steady, that of indigenous cases does not exhibit any clear pattern. There was at least one wave of reported cases somewhere in Taiwan every year from 1998 to 2015, except in 2016-2017. The effective reproduction number R for all waves in all locations ranged from 1.14 to 2.87, with the exception of two Tainan waves, in 2010(3.95) and 2015(6.84). Four major outbreaks of over 2000 cases reveal circulation of one dominant serotype. Conclusions: Correlation between imported cases and indigenous outbreak prove to be difficult to ascertain, even with the availability of serotype data. However, although there had been occasional co-circulation of serotypes in one location, and for some years with different serotypes circulating in different locations, all major outbreaks of over 2 000 cases during the past two decades are due to circulation of mainly a single serotype, perhaps indicating greater transmission potential with one dominating serotype.
基金This study was supported by grants from Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82130093).
文摘Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk,border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese mainland.Methods We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11,2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from Global.health and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation Guide.We constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine requirement.And we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men,considering different transmissibility,population immunity and population activity.Results We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations respectively.Under the quarantine policy,15-19% of imported infections would remain undetected.Once a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity,the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%,and would rise to>95% with over six cases.Conclusions Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COvID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations prominently.However,the risk could be sub-stantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic level.Mpox could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.
文摘We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant.By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community,we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community.We find that after an initial seeding,the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation.We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures,quarantine and travel interruptions.We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates,while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.
文摘Protein aggregates,mitochondrial import stress and neurodegenerative disorders:A salient hallmark of several neurodegenerative diseases,including Parkinson’s disease,is the abundance of protein aggregates(Goiran et al.,2022).This molecular event is believed to lead to activation of stress pathways ultimately resulting in cellular dysfunction(Eldeeb et al.,2022).Accordingly,many lines of research investigations focused on dampening the formation of protein aggregates or augmenting the clearance of protein aggregates as a potential therapeutic strategy to counteract the progression of neurodegenerative diseases,albeit with little success(Costa-Mattioli and Walter,2020).Cell stress cues such as the accumulation of protein aggregates lead to the activation of stress response pathways that aid cells in responding to the damage.Despite the notion that the transient activation of these pathways helps cells cope with stressors,persistent activation can induce unwanted apoptosis of cells and reduce overall tissue strength as well as lead to an accumulation of aggregation-prone proteins(Hetz and Papa,2018).Mutations in proteins involved in stress signaling termination can cause conditions like ataxia and early-onset dementia(Conroy et al.,2014).Therefore,it is crucial for stress response signaling to be turned off once conditions have improved.Nevertheless,the mechanisms by which cells silence these signals are still elusive.
文摘Introduction:The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)Omicron variant is the dominant circulating strain worldwide.To assess the importation of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the mainland of China during the Omicron epidemic,the genomic surveillance data of SARS-CoV-2 from imported coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases in the mainland of China during the first half of 2022 were analyzed.Methods:Sequences submitted from January to July 2022,with a collection date before June 30,2022,were incorporated.The proportions of SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as the relationships between the origin and destination of each Omicron imported case were analyzed.Results:4,946 sequences of imported cases were submitted from 27 provincial-level administrative divisions(PLADs),and the median submission interval was within 1 month after collection.In 3,851 Omicron sequences with good quality,1 recombinant(XU)and 4 subvariants under monitoring(BA.4,BA.5,BA.2.12.1,and BA.2.13)were recorded,and 3 of them(BA.4,BA.5,and BA.2.12.1)caused local transmissions in the mainland of China later than that recorded in the surveillance.Omicron subvariants dominated in the first half of 2022 and shifted from BA.1 to BA.2 then to BA.4 and BA.5.The percentage of BA.2 in the imported SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data was far higher than that in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data(GISAID).The imported cases from Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China,accounted for 32.30%of Omicron cases sampled,and 98.71%of them were BA.2.Conclusions:The Omicron variant showed the intra-Omicron evolution in the first half of 2022,and all of the Omicron subvariants were introduced into the mainland of China multiple times from multiple different locations.
文摘In the practice of healthcare,patient-reported outcomes(PROs)and PRO measures(PROMs)are used as an attempt to observe the changes in complex clinical situations.They guide us in making decisions based on the evidence regarding patient care by recording the change in outcomes for a particular treatment to a given condition and finally to understand whether a patient will benefit from a particular treatment and to quantify the treatment effect.For any PROM to be usable in health care,we need it to be reliable,encapsulating the points of interest with the potential to detect any real change.Using structured outcome measures routinely in clinical practice helps the physician to understand the functional limitation of a patient that would otherwise not be clear in an office interview,and this allows the physician and patient to have a meaningful conver-sation as well as a customized plan for each patient.Having mentioned the rationale and the benefits of PROMs,understanding the quantification process is crucial before embarking on management decisions.A better interpretation of change needs to identify the treatment effect based on clinical relevance for a given condition.There are a multiple set of measurement indices to serve this effect and most of them are used interchangeably without clear demarcation on their differences.This article details the various quantification metrics used to evaluate the treatment effect using PROMs,their limitations and the scope of usage and implementation in clinical practice.
基金supported by Public Health Talent Training and Surport Plan(National Administration of Disease Prevention and Control)Research and application of new technology for rapid monitoring and tracing of emergent infectious diseases among entry-exit population(2024YFFK0056)Monitoring,Early warning and Response of Major Infectious Diseases(2022ZDZX0017).
文摘Objective This study reports the first imported case of Lassa fever(LF)in China.Laboratory detection and molecular epidemiological analysis of the Lassa virus(LASV)from this case offer valuable insights for the prevention and control of LF.Methods Samples of cerebrospinal fluid(CSF),blood,urine,saliva,and environmental materials were collected from the patient and their close contacts for LASV nucleotide detection.Whole-genome sequencing was performed on positive samples to analyze the genetic characteristics of the virus.Results LASV was detected in the patient’s CSF,blood,and urine,while all samples from close contacts and the environment tested negative.The virus belongs to the lineage IV strain and shares the highest homology with strains from Sierra Leone.The variability in the glycoprotein complex(GPC)among different strains ranged from 3.9%to 15.1%,higher than previously reported for the seven known lineages.Amino acid mutation analysis revealed multiple mutations within the GPC immunogenic epitopes,increasing strain diversity and potentially impacting immune response.Conclusion The case was confirmed through nucleotide detection,with no evidence of secondary transmission or viral spread.The LASV strain identified belongs to lineage IV,with broader GPC variability than previously reported.Mutations in the immune-related sites of GPC may affect immune responses,necessitating heightened vigilance regarding the virus.
基金supported by the Basic Ability Improvement Project of Young and Middle-Aged Teachers in Colleges and Universities of Guangxi(2022KY1922,2021KY1938).
文摘The traditional academic warning methods for students in higher vocational colleges are relatively backward,single,and have many influencing factors,which have a limited effect on improving their learning ability.A data set was established by collecting academic warning data of students in a certain university.The importance of the school,major,grade,and warning level for the students was analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient,random forest variable importance,and permutation importance.It was found that the characteristic of the major has a great impact on the academic warning level.Countermeasures such as dynamic adjustment of majors,reform of cognitive adaptation of courses,full-cycle academic support,and data-driven precise intervention were proposed to provide theoretical support and practical paths for universities to improve the efficiency of academic warning and enhance students’learning ability.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805602)National Natural Science Foundation of China(32225032,32001192,32271597)+1 种基金the Innovation Base Project of Gansu Province(2021YFF0703904)the Science and Technology Program of Gansu Province(24JRRA515,22JR5RA525,23JRRA1157).
文摘Studies on plant diversity are usually based on the total number of species in a community.However,few studies have examined species richness(SR)of different plant life forms in a community along largescale environmental gradients.Particularly,the relative importance(RIV)of different plant life forms in a community and how they vary with environmental variables are still unclear.To fill these gaps,we determined plant diversity of ephemeral plants,annual herbs,perennial herbs,and woody plants from 187 sites across drylands in China.The SR patterns of herbaceous plants,especially perennial herbs,and their RIV in plant communities increased with increasing precipitation and soil nutrient content;however,the RIV of annual herbs was not altered along these gradients.The SR and RIV of ephemeral plants were affected mainly by precipitation seasonality.The SR of woody plants had a unimodal relationship with air temperature and exhibited the highest RIV and SR percentage in plant communities under the harshest environments.An obvious shift emerged in plant community composition,SR and their critical impact factors at 238.5 mm of mean annual precipitation(MAP).In mesic regions(>238.5 mm),herbs were the dominant species,and the SR displayed a relatively slow decreasing rate with increasing aridity,which was mediated mainly by MAP and soil nutrients.In arid regions(<238.5 mm),woody plants were the dominant species,and the SR displayed a relatively fast decreasing rate with increasing aridity,which was mediated mainly by climate variables,especially precipitation.Our findings highlight the importance of comparative life form studies in community structure and biodiversity,as their responses to gradients differed substantially on a large scale.
文摘Lassa fever(LF)is an acute viral hemorrhagic disease caused by Lassa virus(LASV)[1].LASV is transmitted to humans primarily through direct contact with infected Mastomys rodents,or items polluted by infected rodents[2].LF is difficult to diagnose without laboratory tests because of its various symptoms,ranging from no symptoms to multiple organ failure and death[2].West Africa is the traditionally endemic regions for LF,with confirmed and sporadic outbreaks reported in countries,such as Nigeria,Burkina Faso and Guinea[2].LF cases have also been detected in some non-endemic regions due to international travels[3,4],for example,the United Kingdom found LF imported cases from Mali[5].This indicates that the countries are exposed to imported risks of LF due to the globalization.The recent publication[6]reported the first imported cases of LF in China,providing important insights into the understanding and control of the emerging infectious disease.
基金Project partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61672298 and 62373197)the Major Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research in Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province,China (Grant No. 2018SJZDI142)the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province,China (Grant No. KYCX23 1045)。
文摘Identifying key nodes in complex networks is crucial for understanding and controlling their dynamics. Traditional centrality measures often fall short in capturing the multifaceted roles of nodes within these networks. The Page Rank algorithm, widely recognized for ranking web pages, offers a more nuanced approach by considering the importance of connected nodes. However, existing methods generally overlook the geometric properties of networks, which can provide additional insights into their structure and functionality. In this paper, we propose a novel method named Curv-Page Rank(C-PR), which integrates network curvature and Page Rank to identify influential nodes in complex networks. By leveraging the geometric insights provided by curvature alongside structural properties, C-PR offers a more comprehensive measure of a node's influence. Our approach is particularly effective in networks with community structures, where it excels at pinpointing bridge nodes critical for maintaining connectivity and facilitating information flow. We validate the effectiveness of C-PR through extensive experiments. The results demonstrate that C-PR outperforms traditional centrality-based and Page Rank methods in identifying critical nodes. Our findings offer fresh insights into the structural importance of nodes across diverse network configurations, highlighting the potential of incorporating geometric properties into network analysis.
文摘BACKGROUND The peritumoral region possesses attributes that promote cancer growth and progression.However,the potential prognostic biomarkers in this region remain relatively underexplored in radiomics.AIM To investigate the prognostic value and importance of peritumoral radiomics in locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC).METHODS This retrospective study included 409 patients with biopsy-confirmed LARC treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgically.Patients were divided into training(n=273)and validation(n=136)sets.Based on intratumoral and peritumoral radiomic features extracted from pretreatment axial high-resolution small-field-of-view T2-weighted images,multivariate Cox models for progression-free survival(PFS)prediction were developed with or without clinicoradiological features and evaluated with Harrell’s concordance index(C-index),calibration curve,and decision curve analyses.Risk stratification,Kaplan-Meier analysis,and permutation feature importance analysis were performed.RESULTS The comprehensive integrated clinical-radiological-omics model(ModelICRO)integrating seven peritumoral,three intratumoral,and four clinicoradiological features achieved the highest C-indices(0.836 and 0.801 in the training and validation sets,respectively).This model showed robust calibration and better clinical net benefits,effectively distinguished high-risk from low-risk patients(PFS:97.2%vs 67.6%and 95.4%vs 64.8%in the training and validation sets,respectively;both P<0.001).Three most influential predictors in the comprehensive ModelICRO were,in order,a peritumoral,an intratumoral,and a clinicoradiological feature.Notably,the peritumoral model outperformed the intratumoral model(C-index:0.754 vs 0.670;P=0.015);peritumoral features significantly enhanced the performance of models based on clinicoradiological or intratumoral features or their combinations.CONCLUSION Peritumoral radiomics holds greater prognostic value than intratumoral radiomics for predicting PFS in LARC.The comprehensive model may serve as a reliable tool for better stratification and management postoperatively.
基金supported by the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(LDT23E06012E06)National Key R&D Program of China(2023YFC3710800)+3 种基金the National EnergySaving and Low-Carbon Materials Production and Application Demonstration Platform Program(TC220H06N)Pioneer R&D Program of Zhejiang Province-China(2024SSYS0066,2023C03016)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42341208)Zhejiang Energy Group Research Fund(ZNKJ-2023-100)。
文摘Converting CO_(2)with green hydrogen to methanol as a carbon-neutral liquid fuel is a promising route for the long-term storage and distribution of intermittent renewable energy.Nevertheless,attaining highly efficient methanol synthesis catalysts from the vast composition space remains a significant challenge.Here we present a machine learning framework for accelerating the development of high space-time yield(STY)methanol synthesis catalysts.A database of methanol synthesis catalysts has been compiled,consisting of catalyst composition,preparation parameters,structural characteristics,reaction conditions and their corresponding catalytic performance.A methodology for constructing catalyst features based on the intrinsic physicochemical properties of the catalyst components has been developed,which significantly reduced the data dimensionality and enhanced the efficiency of machine learning operations.Two high-precision machine learning prediction models for the activities and product selectivity of catalysts were trained and obtained.Using this machine learning framework,an efficient search was achieved within the catalyst composition space,leading to the successful identification of high STY multielement oxide methanol synthesis catalysts.Notably,the CuZnAlTi catalyst achieved high STYs of 0.49 and 0.65 g_(MeOH)/(g_(catalyst)h)for CO_(2)and CO hydrogenation to methanol at 250℃,respectively,and the STY was further increased to 2.63 g_(Me OH)/(g_(catalyst)h)in CO and CO_(2)co-hydrogenation.
文摘The minimal clinically important difference(MCID)represents a pivotal metric in bridging the gap between statistical significance and clinical relevance,addressing the direct impact of medical interventions from the patient's perspective.This comprehensive review analyzes the evolution,applications,and challenges of MCID across medical specialties,emphasizing its necessity in ensuring that clinical outcomes not only demonstrate statistical significance but also offer genuine clinical utility that aligns with patient expectations and needs.We discuss the evolution of MCID since its inception in the 1980s,its current applications across various medical specialties,and the methodologies used in its calculation,highlighting both anchor-based and distribution-based approaches.Furthermore,the paper delves into the challenges associated with the application of MCID,such as methodological variability and the interpretation difficulties that arise in clinical settings.Recommendations for the future include standardizing MCID calculation methods,enhancing patient involvement in setting MCID thresholds,and extending research to incorporate diverse global perspectives.These steps are critical to refining the role of MCID in patient-centered healthcare,addressing existing gaps in methodology and interpretation,and ensuring that medical interventions lead to significant,patient-perceived improvements.
