Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epide...Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epidemic and calculated concentration index to measure economic-related inequality.Importation risk into China was evaluated and ranked by using risk matrix method and Borda count method,respectively.Results As of July 29,2022,of 79 countries or territories,39(49.37%,39/79),17(21.52%,17/79),6(7.59%,6/79),12(15.19%,12/79),and 5(6.33%,5/79)country or territories identified cases<10,10-,51-,101-,and>1,000.There were economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of cases(the concentration index=0.42,P=0.027),and the inequality disadvantageous to the rich(pro-poor).There were 12(15.38%,12/78),15(19.23%,15/78),6(7.69%,6/78),and 45(57.69%,45/78)countries or territories with extremely high,high,moderate,and low importation risk.United States and France ranked first with the highest Borda points of 156,and counts of zero.Conclusion Of 78 countries or territories,the key attention need be paid to the United States and France,relatively.As the epidemic progresses,preparing prevention and control measures to further reduce importation risk was crucial.展开更多
Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemi...Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976–2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the diseaseoutbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively.Results From 1976–2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases(14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate(85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease.The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk(23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone,Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co te d’Ivoire.Conclusion China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.展开更多
In the present article we study the generalized laws of importation and crossmigrativity based on(D,N)-implications.On the one hand,we consider the generalized law of importation I(T(x,α),y)=I(x,J(α,y)),when T is co...In the present article we study the generalized laws of importation and crossmigrativity based on(D,N)-implications.On the one hand,we consider the generalized law of importation I(T(x,α),y)=I(x,J(α,y)),when T is concretized as a fuzzy conjunction C,I and J are concretized as(D,N)-implications generated by a fuzzy disjunction D and a fuzzy negation N.On the other hand,we discuss the cross-migrativity of fuzzy disjunctions over fuzzy implications,that is,I(x,D(y,z))=D(y,I(x,z)),where I is a fuzzy implication,D is a fuzzy disjunction.In addition,we study the relationship between the(α-)cross-migrative of(I,D)and the(α-)cross-law of importation(I,ID,N,C).展开更多
Foreign and domestic technologies play different roles in a country's innovation. In recent years, Chinese firms have spent less on importing foreign technology and more on acquiring domestic technology. Based on ...Foreign and domestic technologies play different roles in a country's innovation. In recent years, Chinese firms have spent less on importing foreign technology and more on acquiring domestic technology. Based on the panel data model, state space model(SSM) and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that the purchase of domestic technology plays a critical role in the innovation of high-tech firms with an elasticity coefficient higher than that of technology importation before 2010. China's high-tech firms can effectively absorb purchased domestic technology, which also brings about an increase in their independent R&D input and contributes more to innovation output than imported technology. Performance of technology importation is lackluster but shows an improving trend. Technology importation is not correlated with innovation output and has a substitutive effect with independent R&D input. China is yet to enhance its absorption of imported technology. Elasticity coefficient of technology importation turned positive in 2007 and increased year by year. China should promote synergy between technology importation and domestic technology acquisition.展开更多
Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is mon...Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is monthly data on SHC importation from 1st January, 2014 to 31st December, 2016. Data was analyzed using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) was the best fit for the SHC importation since its errors were smaller than those of the SES, DES and TES. The four error measures used were Root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean percentage error (MPE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasts were also produced using the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model for the next 18 months from January 2017. Although there is percentage increase of 90.6% from November 2015 to December 2016, the SHC importation generally is on the decrease in Zambia with percentage change of 59.5% from January 2014 to December 2016. The forecasts also show a gradual percentage decrease of 1.12% by June 2018. These results are more useful to policy and decision makers of Government departments such as Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) and Road Development Agency (RDA) in a bid to plan and execute their duties effectively.展开更多
Objective: To ascertain the role of imported cases and serotypes on dengue outbreaks in Taiwan which have been sporadic yet highly volatile during the past two decades, exhibiting record-breaking magnitude in recent y...Objective: To ascertain the role of imported cases and serotypes on dengue outbreaks in Taiwan which have been sporadic yet highly volatile during the past two decades, exhibiting record-breaking magnitude in recent years. Methods: Confirmed case and serotype data from Taiwan Centers for Disease Control during 1998-2017 were fully examined, with fitting of weekly and daily case data of each city/county to a mathematical model to pinpoint the waves of cases and their locations. Moreover, we quantify the timing of turning point and transmission potential of each wave and determine its circulating serotype, to ascertain any pattern or connection between the variations in circulating serotypes and the magnitude/transmissibility of outbreak. Results: While the number of imported case increased steadily during past two decades, the yearly number of indigenous cases fluctuated wildly. Moreover, while yearly percentages of serotypes for imported cases remains steady, that of indigenous cases does not exhibit any clear pattern. There was at least one wave of reported cases somewhere in Taiwan every year from 1998 to 2015, except in 2016-2017. The effective reproduction number R for all waves in all locations ranged from 1.14 to 2.87, with the exception of two Tainan waves, in 2010(3.95) and 2015(6.84). Four major outbreaks of over 2000 cases reveal circulation of one dominant serotype. Conclusions: Correlation between imported cases and indigenous outbreak prove to be difficult to ascertain, even with the availability of serotype data. However, although there had been occasional co-circulation of serotypes in one location, and for some years with different serotypes circulating in different locations, all major outbreaks of over 2 000 cases during the past two decades are due to circulation of mainly a single serotype, perhaps indicating greater transmission potential with one dominating serotype.展开更多
Mpox,a viral zoonotic disease formerly known as monkeypox,has gained global attention following a multi-country outbreak in 2022-23,primarily linked to close intimate contact.In China,mpox cases surged in June 2023,wi...Mpox,a viral zoonotic disease formerly known as monkeypox,has gained global attention following a multi-country outbreak in 2022-23,primarily linked to close intimate contact.In China,mpox cases surged in June 2023,with nearly a quarter of new cases concentrated in Guangdong Province,particularly Shenzhen.This study aimed to estimate the importation risk of mpox cases from Hong Kong to Shenzhen in 2023,utilizing cross-regional population mobility data from January to October 2023.The analysis focused on local transmission in Hong Kong and the probability of mpox importation into Shenzhen.Results revealed a significant importation risk,with over a 50%chance of at least one travelbased mpox case from Hong Kong in June 2023.The study underscores the necessity of enhancing inbound surveillance for travelers from high mpox prevalence regions.It is suggested that regional governments implement tailored strategies,including enhanced surveillance and dynamic risk assessment for effective cross-border disease management,supported by robust monitoring and coordinated actions across jurisdictions.展开更多
Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importa...Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk,border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese mainland.Methods We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11,2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from Global.health and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation Guide.We constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine requirement.And we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men,considering different transmissibility,population immunity and population activity.Results We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations respectively.Under the quarantine policy,15-19% of imported infections would remain undetected.Once a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity,the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%,and would rise to>95% with over six cases.Conclusions Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COvID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations prominently.However,the risk could be sub-stantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic level.Mpox could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.展开更多
We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant.By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originatin...We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant.By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community,we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community.We find that after an initial seeding,the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation.We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures,quarantine and travel interruptions.We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates,while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.展开更多
Since the launch of island-wide special customs operations at Hainan Free Trade Port(Hainan FTP),the proportion of “zero-tariff”imported goods has increased significantly from 21 to 74 percent, and high-quality good...Since the launch of island-wide special customs operations at Hainan Free Trade Port(Hainan FTP),the proportion of “zero-tariff”imported goods has increased significantly from 21 to 74 percent, and high-quality goods from Southeast Asia can enter Hainan at a more competitive price. If goods contain imported materials and achieve at least 30 percent added value through local processing,they can enter the Chinese mainland market with an exemption from import tariffs, effectively gaining market access across China.展开更多
After the end of World War II,African countries successively gained independence and ushered in a golden age of economic development.Through the strategies of primary product exports,transitional economic policies and...After the end of World War II,African countries successively gained independence and ushered in a golden age of economic development.Through the strategies of primary product exports,transitional economic policies and import substitution development,their economic growth accelerated significantly.However,due to the limitations of these strategies,the structural problem of Africa being an exporter of cheap industrial raw materials and an importer of manufactured goods remained unresolved.展开更多
Melioidosis is a zoonotic infectious disease caused by Burkholderia(B.)pseudomallei.It is predominantly endemic in Southeast Asia[1-3].Clinical manifestations are often non-specific,commonly presenting as pneumonia or...Melioidosis is a zoonotic infectious disease caused by Burkholderia(B.)pseudomallei.It is predominantly endemic in Southeast Asia[1-3].Clinical manifestations are often non-specific,commonly presenting as pneumonia or skin abscesses[4],and may progress to severe sepsis with a high case-fatality rate of 10%-50%[5].Due to its early flu-like symptoms,melioidosis is frequently misdiagnosed by clinicians in non-endemic regions.Beijing,located in the North Temperate Zone,rarely reports melioidosis cases;the lack of awareness among healthcare professionals may lead to misdiagnosis and fatal outcomes.展开更多
Enhancing the resilience of critical infrastructure(CI)systems has become a focal point of national and inter-national policies.However,the formulation of resilience enhancement strategies often requires component-(i....Enhancing the resilience of critical infrastructure(CI)systems has become a focal point of national and inter-national policies.However,the formulation of resilience enhancement strategies often requires component-(i.e.asset-)level prioritization,which entails many complexities.Acknowledging the complex and interdependent nature of infrastructure systems,this paper aims to aid researchers,practitioners and policy-makers by pre-senting a review of the relative literature and current state-of-the-art,and by identifying future research op-portunities to improve the applicability and operationalizability of CI component identification and prioritization methods.Theoretical and practical applications are reviewed for definitions,analysis and modelling approaches regarding the resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems.A detailed review of infrastructure criticality definitions,component criticality assessment and prioritization frameworks,from scientific,policy and other documents,is presented.A discussion on social justice and equity dimensions therein is included,which have the potential to greatly influence decisions and should always be incorporated in infrastructure planning and in-vestment discussions.The findings of this review are discussed in terms of applicability and operationalizability.Key recommendations for future research include:(i)developing quantification frameworks for CI component criticality based on formal definitions and multiple criteria,(ii)incorporating the entire resilience cycle of CI in component prioritization,(iii)accounting for the socio-technical nature of CI systems by integrating social di-mensions and their wider operating environment and(iv)developing comprehensive model validation,cali-bration and uncertainty analysis frameworks.展开更多
India’s temporary duty-free window for cotton imports has officially closed,with the government reinstating an 11%import tariff effective January 1,2026.The tax exemption,which expired on December 31,2025 without ext...India’s temporary duty-free window for cotton imports has officially closed,with the government reinstating an 11%import tariff effective January 1,2026.The tax exemption,which expired on December 31,2025 without extension,marks a return to the previous tariff framework-a policy shift expected to raise costs for the domestic textile industry and potentially trigger ripple effects across global cotton trade.展开更多
Accurate soil classification is essential for pavement design;however,the traditional American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials(AASHTO)classification system relies on extensive laboratory test...Accurate soil classification is essential for pavement design;however,the traditional American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials(AASHTO)classification system relies on extensive laboratory testing and subjective judgment.This study presents an artificial intelligence(AI)enhanced framework for AASHTO soil classification.A synthetic dataset of 349,015 samples was generated using parameter ranges for five AASHTO input variables to support model development.Four machine learning models were trained,analyzed,and compared where the random forest(RF)consistently achieved the highest accuracy of 100%among the four models in predicting AASHTO soil groups.Feature importance analysis indicates that percent passing the No.200 sieve is the most influential factor,and under missing input scenarios.Additionally,the models remain reliable under partial input loss,though accuracy is most sensitive to the absence of percent passing the No.200 sieve,dropping to 85.8%,while all other variables maintain accuracies of at least 93.1%.Prediction uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulations shows model performance within a 95%confidence interval.Overall,the proposed AI models can accurately and efficiently predict AASHTO soil groups using incomplete datasets for geotechnical engineering.展开更多
Environmental problems are intensifying due to the rapid growth of the population,industry,and urban infrastructure.This expansion has resulted in increased air and water pollution,intensified urban heat island effect...Environmental problems are intensifying due to the rapid growth of the population,industry,and urban infrastructure.This expansion has resulted in increased air and water pollution,intensified urban heat island effects,and greater runoff from parks and other green spaces.Addressing these challenges requires prioritizing green infrastructure and other sustainable urban development strategies.This study introduces a novel Integrated Decision Support System that combines Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets with the Advanced Alternative Ranking Order Method allowing for Two-Step Normalization(AAROM-TN),enhanced by a dual weighting strategy.The weighting approach integrates the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method with the Criteria Importance through Means and Standard Deviation(CIMAS)technique.The originality of the proposed framework lies in its ability to objectively quantify criteria importance using CRITIC,incorporate decision-makers’preferences through CIMAS,and capture the uncertainty and hesitation inherent in human judgment via Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets.A case study evaluating green infrastructure alternatives in metropolitan regions demonstrates the applicability and effectiveness of the framework.A sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine how variations in criteria weights affect the rankings and to evaluate the robustness of the results.Furthermore,a comparative analysis highlights the practical and financial implications of each alternative by assessing their respective strengths and weaknesses.展开更多
Effective conservation relies on robust assessments;however,the lack of waterbird data in the Yellow River Basin(YRB)has led to an underestimation of key habitat significance.This study addressed this gap by evaluatin...Effective conservation relies on robust assessments;however,the lack of waterbird data in the Yellow River Basin(YRB)has led to an underestimation of key habitat significance.This study addressed this gap by evaluating YRB wetland conservation importance using waterbirds as indicators and applying Ramsar,Important Bird Areas(IBA),and East Asian-Australasian Flyway(EAAF)criteria.We integrated coordinated surveys with citizen science data,creating a framework that tackles data deficiencies along the under-monitored Central Asian Flyway(CAF).Our analysis identified 75 priority wetlands,supporting 15 threatened species and 49 exceeding global/flyway 1%thresholds,highlighting the basin's biodiversity.We observed strong seasonal habitat use,with high-altitude wetlands vital for breeding and migration,and the Yellow River Delta providing year-round refuge.This research also provided data to refine Baer's Pochard population estimates.Alarmingly,one-third of the identified priority areas,primarily rivers and lakes,remain unprotected.To address this,we recommend systematic surveys,enhanced protected areas,OECMs,and targeted wetland restoration.This study underscores the YRB's role in regional conservation and provides essential data for adaptive management,particularly emphasizing the CAF's importance.展开更多
Accurate purchase prediction in e-commerce critically depends on the quality of behavioral features.This paper proposes a layered and interpretable feature engineering framework that organizes user signals into three ...Accurate purchase prediction in e-commerce critically depends on the quality of behavioral features.This paper proposes a layered and interpretable feature engineering framework that organizes user signals into three layers:Basic,Conversion&Stability(efficiency and volatility across actions),and Advanced Interactions&Activity(crossbehavior synergies and intensity).Using real Taobao(Alibaba’s primary e-commerce platform)logs(57,976 records for 10,203 users;25 November–03 December 2017),we conducted a hierarchical,layer-wise evaluation that holds data splits and hyperparameters fixed while varying only the feature set to quantify each layer’s marginal contribution.Across logistic regression(LR),decision tree,random forest,XGBoost,and CatBoost models with stratified 5-fold cross-validation,the performance improvedmonotonically fromBasic to Conversion&Stability to Advanced features.With LR,F1 increased from 0.613(Basic)to 0.962(Advanced);boosted models achieved high discrimination(0.995 AUC Score)and an F1 score up to 0.983.Calibration and precision–recall analyses indicated strong ranking quality and acknowledged potential dataset and period biases given the short(9-day)window.By making feature contributions measurable and reproducible,the framework complements model-centric advances and offers a transparent blueprint for production-grade behavioralmodeling.The code and processed artifacts are publicly available,and future work will extend the validation to longer,seasonal datasets and hybrid approaches that combine automated feature learning with domain-driven design.展开更多
A case of imported severe falciparum malaria with spontaneous splenic rupture was reported in this paper.The patient,an African migrant worker,developed hemolytic anemia,sepsis,thrombocytopenia,coagulation dysfunction...A case of imported severe falciparum malaria with spontaneous splenic rupture was reported in this paper.The patient,an African migrant worker,developed hemolytic anemia,sepsis,thrombocytopenia,coagulation dysfunction,liver failure,renal insufficiency,electrolyte disturbance and other clinical manifestations after returning to the local area.Plasmodium falciparum was found by peripheral blood smearscopy and was diagnosed as severe falciparum malaria.After standardized anti-malaria treatment,plasma exchange+cytokine adsorption therapy,the establishment of“forewarning-forewarning-prevention-emergency”predictive nursing management model,the establishment of an integrated nursing team,the division of medical care is clear,professional knowledge is complementary,after three months of regular follow-up,the patient has no malaria recurrence,no refire,the function of all organs returned to normal.展开更多
基金partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 72122001,71934002]the National Key Research and Development Project of China[grant number 2021ZD0114101,2021ZD0114104,2021ZD0114105]+2 种基金National Statistical Science Research Project[grant numbers 2021LY038]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities supported by Global Center for Infectious Disease and Policy Research&Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group,of Peking University[grant number 202204]National Science and Technology Project on Development Assistance for Technology,Developing China-ASEAN Public Health Research and Development Collaborating Center[grant number KY202101004]
文摘Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epidemic and calculated concentration index to measure economic-related inequality.Importation risk into China was evaluated and ranked by using risk matrix method and Borda count method,respectively.Results As of July 29,2022,of 79 countries or territories,39(49.37%,39/79),17(21.52%,17/79),6(7.59%,6/79),12(15.19%,12/79),and 5(6.33%,5/79)country or territories identified cases<10,10-,51-,101-,and>1,000.There were economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of cases(the concentration index=0.42,P=0.027),and the inequality disadvantageous to the rich(pro-poor).There were 12(15.38%,12/78),15(19.23%,15/78),6(7.69%,6/78),and 45(57.69%,45/78)countries or territories with extremely high,high,moderate,and low importation risk.United States and France ranked first with the highest Borda points of 156,and counts of zero.Conclusion Of 78 countries or territories,the key attention need be paid to the United States and France,relatively.As the epidemic progresses,preparing prevention and control measures to further reduce importation risk was crucial.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant No.71934002,Grant No.72122001]。
文摘Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976–2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the diseaseoutbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively.Results From 1976–2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases(14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate(85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease.The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk(23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone,Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co te d’Ivoire.Conclusion China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12471438,12001413)the Natural Science Basic Research Plan Project of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.2022JM-048)the Shaanxi Fundamental Science Research Project for Mathematics and Physics(Grant No.23JSQ043)。
文摘In the present article we study the generalized laws of importation and crossmigrativity based on(D,N)-implications.On the one hand,we consider the generalized law of importation I(T(x,α),y)=I(x,J(α,y)),when T is concretized as a fuzzy conjunction C,I and J are concretized as(D,N)-implications generated by a fuzzy disjunction D and a fuzzy negation N.On the other hand,we discuss the cross-migrativity of fuzzy disjunctions over fuzzy implications,that is,I(x,D(y,z))=D(y,I(x,z)),where I is a fuzzy implication,D is a fuzzy disjunction.In addition,we study the relationship between the(α-)cross-migrative of(I,D)and the(α-)cross-law of importation(I,ID,N,C).
基金The Humanities and Social Sciences Planning Fund Project of the Ministry of Education:Study on the Determinants and Countermeasures of Coordinated Innovation Depth(17YJA630125)Philosophical and Social Science Planning Project of Zhejiang Province:Study on the Evaluation System and Implementation Paths for All-Round Innovation in Zhejiang Province(17NDJC107YB)
文摘Foreign and domestic technologies play different roles in a country's innovation. In recent years, Chinese firms have spent less on importing foreign technology and more on acquiring domestic technology. Based on the panel data model, state space model(SSM) and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that the purchase of domestic technology plays a critical role in the innovation of high-tech firms with an elasticity coefficient higher than that of technology importation before 2010. China's high-tech firms can effectively absorb purchased domestic technology, which also brings about an increase in their independent R&D input and contributes more to innovation output than imported technology. Performance of technology importation is lackluster but shows an improving trend. Technology importation is not correlated with innovation output and has a substitutive effect with independent R&D input. China is yet to enhance its absorption of imported technology. Elasticity coefficient of technology importation turned positive in 2007 and increased year by year. China should promote synergy between technology importation and domestic technology acquisition.
文摘Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is monthly data on SHC importation from 1st January, 2014 to 31st December, 2016. Data was analyzed using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) was the best fit for the SHC importation since its errors were smaller than those of the SES, DES and TES. The four error measures used were Root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean percentage error (MPE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasts were also produced using the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model for the next 18 months from January 2017. Although there is percentage increase of 90.6% from November 2015 to December 2016, the SHC importation generally is on the decrease in Zambia with percentage change of 59.5% from January 2014 to December 2016. The forecasts also show a gradual percentage decrease of 1.12% by June 2018. These results are more useful to policy and decision makers of Government departments such as Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) and Road Development Agency (RDA) in a bid to plan and execute their duties effectively.
基金supported by funding from grants from Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST 103-2314-B-039-010-MY3)China Medical UniversityTaiwan(CMU106-S-02)
文摘Objective: To ascertain the role of imported cases and serotypes on dengue outbreaks in Taiwan which have been sporadic yet highly volatile during the past two decades, exhibiting record-breaking magnitude in recent years. Methods: Confirmed case and serotype data from Taiwan Centers for Disease Control during 1998-2017 were fully examined, with fitting of weekly and daily case data of each city/county to a mathematical model to pinpoint the waves of cases and their locations. Moreover, we quantify the timing of turning point and transmission potential of each wave and determine its circulating serotype, to ascertain any pattern or connection between the variations in circulating serotypes and the magnitude/transmissibility of outbreak. Results: While the number of imported case increased steadily during past two decades, the yearly number of indigenous cases fluctuated wildly. Moreover, while yearly percentages of serotypes for imported cases remains steady, that of indigenous cases does not exhibit any clear pattern. There was at least one wave of reported cases somewhere in Taiwan every year from 1998 to 2015, except in 2016-2017. The effective reproduction number R for all waves in all locations ranged from 1.14 to 2.87, with the exception of two Tainan waves, in 2010(3.95) and 2015(6.84). Four major outbreaks of over 2000 cases reveal circulation of one dominant serotype. Conclusions: Correlation between imported cases and indigenous outbreak prove to be difficult to ascertain, even with the availability of serotype data. However, although there had been occasional co-circulation of serotypes in one location, and for some years with different serotypes circulating in different locations, all major outbreaks of over 2 000 cases during the past two decades are due to circulation of mainly a single serotype, perhaps indicating greater transmission potential with one dominating serotype.
基金supported by the Shenzhen Medical Research Fund(Grant No.E24010010,E24010011)the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(Grant No.SYSPG20241211173921049)+2 种基金the Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Macao Science and Technology Project(Category C)(Grant No.SGDX20230821091559022)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.82304204)the AIR@InnoHK Programme from the Innovation and Technology Commission of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region。
文摘Mpox,a viral zoonotic disease formerly known as monkeypox,has gained global attention following a multi-country outbreak in 2022-23,primarily linked to close intimate contact.In China,mpox cases surged in June 2023,with nearly a quarter of new cases concentrated in Guangdong Province,particularly Shenzhen.This study aimed to estimate the importation risk of mpox cases from Hong Kong to Shenzhen in 2023,utilizing cross-regional population mobility data from January to October 2023.The analysis focused on local transmission in Hong Kong and the probability of mpox importation into Shenzhen.Results revealed a significant importation risk,with over a 50%chance of at least one travelbased mpox case from Hong Kong in June 2023.The study underscores the necessity of enhancing inbound surveillance for travelers from high mpox prevalence regions.It is suggested that regional governments implement tailored strategies,including enhanced surveillance and dynamic risk assessment for effective cross-border disease management,supported by robust monitoring and coordinated actions across jurisdictions.
基金This study was supported by grants from Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82130093).
文摘Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk,border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese mainland.Methods We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11,2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from Global.health and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation Guide.We constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine requirement.And we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men,considering different transmissibility,population immunity and population activity.Results We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations respectively.Under the quarantine policy,15-19% of imported infections would remain undetected.Once a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity,the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%,and would rise to>95% with over six cases.Conclusions Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COvID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations prominently.However,the risk could be sub-stantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic level.Mpox could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.
文摘We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant.By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community,we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community.We find that after an initial seeding,the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation.We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures,quarantine and travel interruptions.We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates,while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.
文摘Since the launch of island-wide special customs operations at Hainan Free Trade Port(Hainan FTP),the proportion of “zero-tariff”imported goods has increased significantly from 21 to 74 percent, and high-quality goods from Southeast Asia can enter Hainan at a more competitive price. If goods contain imported materials and achieve at least 30 percent added value through local processing,they can enter the Chinese mainland market with an exemption from import tariffs, effectively gaining market access across China.
文摘After the end of World War II,African countries successively gained independence and ushered in a golden age of economic development.Through the strategies of primary product exports,transitional economic policies and import substitution development,their economic growth accelerated significantly.However,due to the limitations of these strategies,the structural problem of Africa being an exporter of cheap industrial raw materials and an importer of manufactured goods remained unresolved.
基金supported by the Capital’s Funds for Health Improvement and Research(2024-1G-4362)the National Key Program for Infectious Disease of China(2018ZX10714002-003-002).
文摘Melioidosis is a zoonotic infectious disease caused by Burkholderia(B.)pseudomallei.It is predominantly endemic in Southeast Asia[1-3].Clinical manifestations are often non-specific,commonly presenting as pneumonia or skin abscesses[4],and may progress to severe sepsis with a high case-fatality rate of 10%-50%[5].Due to its early flu-like symptoms,melioidosis is frequently misdiagnosed by clinicians in non-endemic regions.Beijing,located in the North Temperate Zone,rarely reports melioidosis cases;the lack of awareness among healthcare professionals may lead to misdiagnosis and fatal outcomes.
基金supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No.101037424.
文摘Enhancing the resilience of critical infrastructure(CI)systems has become a focal point of national and inter-national policies.However,the formulation of resilience enhancement strategies often requires component-(i.e.asset-)level prioritization,which entails many complexities.Acknowledging the complex and interdependent nature of infrastructure systems,this paper aims to aid researchers,practitioners and policy-makers by pre-senting a review of the relative literature and current state-of-the-art,and by identifying future research op-portunities to improve the applicability and operationalizability of CI component identification and prioritization methods.Theoretical and practical applications are reviewed for definitions,analysis and modelling approaches regarding the resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems.A detailed review of infrastructure criticality definitions,component criticality assessment and prioritization frameworks,from scientific,policy and other documents,is presented.A discussion on social justice and equity dimensions therein is included,which have the potential to greatly influence decisions and should always be incorporated in infrastructure planning and in-vestment discussions.The findings of this review are discussed in terms of applicability and operationalizability.Key recommendations for future research include:(i)developing quantification frameworks for CI component criticality based on formal definitions and multiple criteria,(ii)incorporating the entire resilience cycle of CI in component prioritization,(iii)accounting for the socio-technical nature of CI systems by integrating social di-mensions and their wider operating environment and(iv)developing comprehensive model validation,cali-bration and uncertainty analysis frameworks.
文摘India’s temporary duty-free window for cotton imports has officially closed,with the government reinstating an 11%import tariff effective January 1,2026.The tax exemption,which expired on December 31,2025 without extension,marks a return to the previous tariff framework-a policy shift expected to raise costs for the domestic textile industry and potentially trigger ripple effects across global cotton trade.
文摘Accurate soil classification is essential for pavement design;however,the traditional American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials(AASHTO)classification system relies on extensive laboratory testing and subjective judgment.This study presents an artificial intelligence(AI)enhanced framework for AASHTO soil classification.A synthetic dataset of 349,015 samples was generated using parameter ranges for five AASHTO input variables to support model development.Four machine learning models were trained,analyzed,and compared where the random forest(RF)consistently achieved the highest accuracy of 100%among the four models in predicting AASHTO soil groups.Feature importance analysis indicates that percent passing the No.200 sieve is the most influential factor,and under missing input scenarios.Additionally,the models remain reliable under partial input loss,though accuracy is most sensitive to the absence of percent passing the No.200 sieve,dropping to 85.8%,while all other variables maintain accuracies of at least 93.1%.Prediction uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulations shows model performance within a 95%confidence interval.Overall,the proposed AI models can accurately and efficiently predict AASHTO soil groups using incomplete datasets for geotechnical engineering.
基金supported by the Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University Researchers Supporting Project number(PNURSP2026R259)Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University,Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.Ashit Kumar Dutta would like to thank AlMaarefa University for supporting this research under project number MHIRSP2025017.
文摘Environmental problems are intensifying due to the rapid growth of the population,industry,and urban infrastructure.This expansion has resulted in increased air and water pollution,intensified urban heat island effects,and greater runoff from parks and other green spaces.Addressing these challenges requires prioritizing green infrastructure and other sustainable urban development strategies.This study introduces a novel Integrated Decision Support System that combines Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets with the Advanced Alternative Ranking Order Method allowing for Two-Step Normalization(AAROM-TN),enhanced by a dual weighting strategy.The weighting approach integrates the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method with the Criteria Importance through Means and Standard Deviation(CIMAS)technique.The originality of the proposed framework lies in its ability to objectively quantify criteria importance using CRITIC,incorporate decision-makers’preferences through CIMAS,and capture the uncertainty and hesitation inherent in human judgment via Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets.A case study evaluating green infrastructure alternatives in metropolitan regions demonstrates the applicability and effectiveness of the framework.A sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine how variations in criteria weights affect the rankings and to evaluate the robustness of the results.Furthermore,a comparative analysis highlights the practical and financial implications of each alternative by assessing their respective strengths and weaknesses.
基金The Science and Technology Basic Resources Survey Project,No.2021FY101002Wetland Protection and Restoration in China Funded by the Palson Institute and Laoniu Foundation,UNDP-GEF Flyway Project,No.PIMS ID:6110。
文摘Effective conservation relies on robust assessments;however,the lack of waterbird data in the Yellow River Basin(YRB)has led to an underestimation of key habitat significance.This study addressed this gap by evaluating YRB wetland conservation importance using waterbirds as indicators and applying Ramsar,Important Bird Areas(IBA),and East Asian-Australasian Flyway(EAAF)criteria.We integrated coordinated surveys with citizen science data,creating a framework that tackles data deficiencies along the under-monitored Central Asian Flyway(CAF).Our analysis identified 75 priority wetlands,supporting 15 threatened species and 49 exceeding global/flyway 1%thresholds,highlighting the basin's biodiversity.We observed strong seasonal habitat use,with high-altitude wetlands vital for breeding and migration,and the Yellow River Delta providing year-round refuge.This research also provided data to refine Baer's Pochard population estimates.Alarmingly,one-third of the identified priority areas,primarily rivers and lakes,remain unprotected.To address this,we recommend systematic surveys,enhanced protected areas,OECMs,and targeted wetland restoration.This study underscores the YRB's role in regional conservation and provides essential data for adaptive management,particularly emphasizing the CAF's importance.
基金supported by the research fund of Hanyang University(HY-202500000001616).
文摘Accurate purchase prediction in e-commerce critically depends on the quality of behavioral features.This paper proposes a layered and interpretable feature engineering framework that organizes user signals into three layers:Basic,Conversion&Stability(efficiency and volatility across actions),and Advanced Interactions&Activity(crossbehavior synergies and intensity).Using real Taobao(Alibaba’s primary e-commerce platform)logs(57,976 records for 10,203 users;25 November–03 December 2017),we conducted a hierarchical,layer-wise evaluation that holds data splits and hyperparameters fixed while varying only the feature set to quantify each layer’s marginal contribution.Across logistic regression(LR),decision tree,random forest,XGBoost,and CatBoost models with stratified 5-fold cross-validation,the performance improvedmonotonically fromBasic to Conversion&Stability to Advanced features.With LR,F1 increased from 0.613(Basic)to 0.962(Advanced);boosted models achieved high discrimination(0.995 AUC Score)and an F1 score up to 0.983.Calibration and precision–recall analyses indicated strong ranking quality and acknowledged potential dataset and period biases given the short(9-day)window.By making feature contributions measurable and reproducible,the framework complements model-centric advances and offers a transparent blueprint for production-grade behavioralmodeling.The code and processed artifacts are publicly available,and future work will extend the validation to longer,seasonal datasets and hybrid approaches that combine automated feature learning with domain-driven design.
基金“Artificial Liver Special Fund”of Beijing Gan Dan Xiang Zhao Public Welfare Foundation(Project No.:iGandanF-1082024-RGG055)。
文摘A case of imported severe falciparum malaria with spontaneous splenic rupture was reported in this paper.The patient,an African migrant worker,developed hemolytic anemia,sepsis,thrombocytopenia,coagulation dysfunction,liver failure,renal insufficiency,electrolyte disturbance and other clinical manifestations after returning to the local area.Plasmodium falciparum was found by peripheral blood smearscopy and was diagnosed as severe falciparum malaria.After standardized anti-malaria treatment,plasma exchange+cytokine adsorption therapy,the establishment of“forewarning-forewarning-prevention-emergency”predictive nursing management model,the establishment of an integrated nursing team,the division of medical care is clear,professional knowledge is complementary,after three months of regular follow-up,the patient has no malaria recurrence,no refire,the function of all organs returned to normal.
