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洪水分析软件IFMS/Urban特点及应用 被引量:20
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作者 马建明 喻海军 《中国水利》 2017年第5期74-75,共2页
当前,国内的洪水分析软件研发存在实用性、通用性较差等问题。为弥补行业短板,中国水利水电科学研究院依托全国重点地区洪水风险图编制项目,联合南京水利科学研究院、河海大学、山东大学及大连理工大学等单位的专家学者,并与北京航天宏... 当前,国内的洪水分析软件研发存在实用性、通用性较差等问题。为弥补行业短板,中国水利水电科学研究院依托全国重点地区洪水风险图编制项目,联合南京水利科学研究院、河海大学、山东大学及大连理工大学等单位的专家学者,并与北京航天宏图信息技术股份有限公司和南京慧水软件科技有限公司合作. 展开更多
关键词 洪水分析 ifms/urban 洪水风险 慧水 北京航天 编制项目 自主知识产权 蓄滞洪区 信息技术 防洪保护区
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IFMS Urban软件在城市洪水风险图编制中的应用 被引量:33
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作者 喻海军 马建明 +1 位作者 张大伟 穆杰 《中国防汛抗旱》 2018年第7期13-17,共5页
依托全国重点地区洪水风险图编制项目,开展了通用洪水分析软件研发,形成了两个软件产品,即IFMS(Integrated Flood Modeling System)和IFMS Urban(Integrated Urban Flood Modeling System)。IFMS Urban开发了高分辨率二维地表洪水分析... 依托全国重点地区洪水风险图编制项目,开展了通用洪水分析软件研发,形成了两个软件产品,即IFMS(Integrated Flood Modeling System)和IFMS Urban(Integrated Urban Flood Modeling System)。IFMS Urban开发了高分辨率二维地表洪水分析计算引擎、快速非结构网格生成模块,集成国内外广泛使用的SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)管网模型,并基于自主研发的GIS平台,完成了模型的前后处理功能研发,实现城市管网与二维模型耦合。介绍了IFMS Urban在成都市、呼和浩特市和太原市等城市典型应用示例,表明其完全具备处理复杂的城市洪水问题的能力。 展开更多
关键词 ifmsurban软件 二维模型 管网模型 SWMM 城市洪水
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GIS与IFMS模型耦合在大通江洪水风险分析中的应用
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作者 张运凤 牟小龙 +1 位作者 张泽中 王飞 《水电能源科学》 北大核心 2025年第1期20-24,共5页
大通江流域地形地貌复杂,易发生山洪灾害。精确模拟该区域径流过程和地表淹没范围,对于区域防洪管理和决策有重要意义。通过IFMS洪水分析软件构建大通江计算片区水动力学模型,并结合GIS软件分析洪水淹没区域。结果表明,10年一遇洪水时... 大通江流域地形地貌复杂,易发生山洪灾害。精确模拟该区域径流过程和地表淹没范围,对于区域防洪管理和决策有重要意义。通过IFMS洪水分析软件构建大通江计算片区水动力学模型,并结合GIS软件分析洪水淹没区域。结果表明,10年一遇洪水时大通江干流洪水未出堤防,20年一遇洪水时大通县城城区上下游局部发生漫溢,50年一遇洪水时漫溢更为严重,洪水淹没范围进一步扩大;除两河口镇堤防尚不满足防洪标准外,其余堤防皆满足其相应防洪标准。研究结果可为该河段防洪工程规划、防汛抢险指挥等提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 ifms GIS 风险分析 洪水淹没 大通江
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Emphasizing Theoretical Innovation in the Renovation ofExisting Urban Rail Transit Lines
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作者 DING Shukui 《城市轨道交通研究》 北大核心 2026年第1期167-168,共2页
Over the next 20 years,China's urban rail transit(hereinafter referred to as'urban rail')will face large-scalerenovation of existing line facilities and equipment,with more than 1000 km of renovated lines ... Over the next 20 years,China's urban rail transit(hereinafter referred to as'urban rail')will face large-scalerenovation of existing line facilities and equipment,with more than 1000 km of renovated lines to be added eachyear.In 2024,the China Association of Metros issued the Guiding Opinions on the Renovation of Existing UrbanRail Transit Lines in China,providing guiding opinions on norms,standards,and implementation approaches forthe renovation of existing lines in the coming period.In the practical work of renovating existing urban rail lines,it is necessary to continuously explore and refine relevant theoretical methods in line with industry developmenttrends and urban development requirements.The following are the author's recent reflections on theoreticalinnovation in this field. 展开更多
关键词 urban rail transit industry development trends existing lines renovation existing lines urban rail transit hereinafter RENOVATION urbanrail transit lines theoretical innovation
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The Wuhu Model:Sustainable Urban Renewal
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作者 ZHOU LIN 《China Today》 2026年第1期56-59,共4页
In Wuhu,urban renewal has not only transformed the development process,but improved people’s lives.DURING the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025),urban renewal has served as a crucial measure to promote high-qualit... In Wuhu,urban renewal has not only transformed the development process,but improved people’s lives.DURING the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025),urban renewal has served as a crucial measure to promote high-quality urban development and continuously meet people’s growing aspirations for a better life.Wuhu,in central China’s Anhui Province,has consistently enhanced its urban functions and services to build a modern,people-oriented city that is innovative,livable,beautiful,resilient,and smart. 展开更多
关键词 BEAUTY RESILIENCE people oriented city urban development enhanced its urban functions services sustainable urban renewal INNOVATION LIVABILITY
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China’s Urban-Rural Integration:A Global Perspective on Sustainable Development
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作者 XIA YUANYUAN 《China Today》 2026年第1期36-38,共3页
China is carving out a distinctive development path which features urban-rural integration.This approach has not only yielded tangible results domestically but also drawn the attention of other countries.
关键词 sustainable development urban rural integration China development path
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An Optimal Right-Turn Coordination System for Connected and Automated Vehicles at Urban Intersections
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作者 Mahmudul Hasan Shuji Doman +2 位作者 A.S.M.Bakibillah Md Abdus Samad Kamal Kou Yamada 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2026年第1期430-446,共17页
Traffic at urban intersections frequently encounters unexpected obstructions,resulting in congestion due to uncooperative and priority-based driving behavior.This paper presents an optimal right-turn coordination syst... Traffic at urban intersections frequently encounters unexpected obstructions,resulting in congestion due to uncooperative and priority-based driving behavior.This paper presents an optimal right-turn coordination system for Connected and Automated Vehicles(CAVs)at single-lane intersections,particularly in the context of left-hand side driving on roads.The goal is to facilitate smooth right turns for certain vehicles without creating bottlenecks.We consider that all approaching vehicles share relevant information through vehicular communications.The Intersection Coordination Unit(ICU)processes this information and communicates the optimal crossing or turning times to the vehicles.The primary objective of this coordination is to minimize overall traffic delays,which also helps improve the fuel consumption of vehicles.By considering information from upcoming vehicles at the intersection,the coordination system solves an optimization problem to determine the best timing for executing right turns,ultimately minimizing the total delay for all vehicles.The proposed coordination system is evaluated at a typical urban intersection,and its performance is compared to traditional traffic systems.Numerical simulation results indicate that the proposed coordination system significantly enhances the average traffic speed and fuel consumption compared to the traditional traffic system in various scenarios. 展开更多
关键词 Right-turn coordination connected and automated vehicles vehicular communication edge processing urban intersection
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A New Urban Life--China accelerates urban renewal to build smarter, more liveable modern cities
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作者 LI XIAOYANG 《ChinAfrica》 2026年第1期39-41,共3页
The long-standing use of portable toilet cubicles by residents of Shanghai’s narrow,labyrinthine alleys came to an end in September 2025 after the city largely finished building public toilets to make up their lack o... The long-standing use of portable toilet cubicles by residents of Shanghai’s narrow,labyrinthine alleys came to an end in September 2025 after the city largely finished building public toilets to make up their lack of sanitation facilities.The project,targeting 14,082 households,started last year. 展开更多
关键词 urban renewal sanitation facilities public toilets smart cities portable toilet cubicles liveable cities
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Optimal Dispatch of Urban Distribution Networks Considering Virtual Power Plant Coordination under Extreme Scenarios
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作者 Yong Li Yuxuan Chen +4 位作者 Jiahui He Guowei He Chenxi Dai Jingjing Tong Wenting Lei 《Energy Engineering》 2026年第1期204-220,共17页
Ensuring reliable power supply in urban distribution networks is a complex and critical task.To address the increased demand during extreme scenarios,this paper proposes an optimal dispatch strategy that considers the... Ensuring reliable power supply in urban distribution networks is a complex and critical task.To address the increased demand during extreme scenarios,this paper proposes an optimal dispatch strategy that considers the coordination with virtual power plants(VPPs).The proposed strategy improves systemflexibility and responsiveness by optimizing the power adjustment of flexible resources.In the proposed strategy,theGaussian Process Regression(GPR)is firstly employed to determine the adjustable range of aggregated power within the VPP,facilitating an assessment of its potential contribution to power supply support.Then,an optimal dispatch model based on a leader-follower game is developed to maximize the benefits of the VPP and flexible resources while guaranteeing the power balance at the same time.To solve the proposed optimal dispatch model efficiently,the constraints of the problem are reformulated and resolved using the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)optimality conditions and linear programming duality theorem.The effectiveness of the strategy is illustrated through a detailed case study. 展开更多
关键词 urban distribution network virtual power plant power supply support leader-follower optimization game extreme weather scenarios
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Hybrid AI-IoT Framework with Digital Twin Integration for Predictive Urban Infrastructure Management in Smart Cities
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作者 Abdullah Alourani Mehtab Alam +2 位作者 Ashraf Ali Ihtiram Raza Khan Chandra Kanta Samal 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2026年第1期462-493,共32页
The evolution of cities into digitally managed environments requires computational systems that can operate in real time while supporting predictive and adaptive infrastructure management.Earlier approaches have often... The evolution of cities into digitally managed environments requires computational systems that can operate in real time while supporting predictive and adaptive infrastructure management.Earlier approaches have often advanced one dimension—such as Internet of Things(IoT)-based data acquisition,Artificial Intelligence(AI)-driven analytics,or digital twin visualization—without fully integrating these strands into a single operational loop.As a result,many existing solutions encounter bottlenecks in responsiveness,interoperability,and scalability,while also leaving concerns about data privacy unresolved.This research introduces a hybrid AI–IoT–Digital Twin framework that combines continuous sensing,distributed intelligence,and simulation-based decision support.The design incorporates multi-source sensor data,lightweight edge inference through Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN)and Long ShortTerm Memory(LSTM)models,and federated learning enhanced with secure aggregation and differential privacy to maintain confidentiality.A digital twin layer extends these capabilities by simulating city assets such as traffic flows and water networks,generating what-if scenarios,and issuing actionable control signals.Complementary modules,including model compression and synchronization protocols,are embedded to ensure reliability in bandwidth-constrained and heterogeneous urban environments.The framework is validated in two urban domains:traffic management,where it adapts signal cycles based on real-time congestion patterns,and pipeline monitoring,where it anticipates leaks through pressure and vibration data.Experimental results show a 28%reduction in response time,a 35%decrease in maintenance costs,and a marked reduction in false positives relative to conventional baselines.The architecture also demonstrates stability across 50+edge devices under federated training and resilience to uneven node participation.The proposed system provides a scalable and privacy-aware foundation for predictive urban infrastructure management.By closing the loop between sensing,learning,and control,it reduces operator dependence,enhances resource efficiency,and supports transparent governance models for emerging smart cities. 展开更多
关键词 Smart cities digital twin AI-IOT framework predictive infrastructure management edge computing reinforcement learning optimization methods federated learning urban systems modeling smart governance
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介绍丹麦农场综合管理系统IFMS
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作者 刘世洪 《计算机与农业》 1996年第3期34-38,共5页
介绍丹麦农场综合管理系统IFMS刘世洪(中国农科院计算中心)信息作为一种资源被称为是现代化社会经济发展的三大支柱之一。在丹麦的农业生产中,采用先进的农场内决策支持系统,强化信息的综合管理。丹麦农民创造了一种适合自身生... 介绍丹麦农场综合管理系统IFMS刘世洪(中国农科院计算中心)信息作为一种资源被称为是现代化社会经济发展的三大支柱之一。在丹麦的农业生产中,采用先进的农场内决策支持系统,强化信息的综合管理。丹麦农民创造了一种适合自身生产方式的综合农场管理模式,其可塑性... 展开更多
关键词 丹麦 农业 北欧 农场 畜牧生产 农业生产 ifms 预算 财政管理 生产方式 管理系统
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基于IFMS软件实现新疆某中小河流洪水计算及风险分析 被引量:3
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作者 王玉丽 陈平星 李萌 《中国水利》 2017年第5期69-72,共4页
介绍了利用IFMS软件开展新疆某中小河流洪水计算及风险分析的作业流程及办法,重点介绍了IFMS二维模型构建流程,并针对当前IFMS软件功能特点,归纳出了典型区、典型时刻水量思路,利用IFMS二维计算后处理功能,配合ArcGIS软件空间分析及统... 介绍了利用IFMS软件开展新疆某中小河流洪水计算及风险分析的作业流程及办法,重点介绍了IFMS二维模型构建流程,并针对当前IFMS软件功能特点,归纳出了典型区、典型时刻水量思路,利用IFMS二维计算后处理功能,配合ArcGIS软件空间分析及统计汇总功能,反映各辖区典型淹没区典型时刻洪水淹没特征。 展开更多
关键词 ifms 中小河流 洪水风险图 二维模型 网格剖分 洪水影响 新疆
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基于IFMS的青衣江洪雅县城区段洪水风险分析
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作者 黎恺 金涛 张新华 《西南民族大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 2023年第5期562-568,共7页
以眉山市洪雅县城区作为研究区域,利用IFMS软件构建青衣江洪雅段一二维耦合水动力模型,研究不同重现期下的洪水对洪雅县城区的淹没影响.采用青衣江洪雅水文站的设计洪水成果及2020年青衣江8月16日到8月18日实测洪水过程率定模型参数,并... 以眉山市洪雅县城区作为研究区域,利用IFMS软件构建青衣江洪雅段一二维耦合水动力模型,研究不同重现期下的洪水对洪雅县城区的淹没影响.采用青衣江洪雅水文站的设计洪水成果及2020年青衣江8月16日到8月18日实测洪水过程率定模型参数,并结合现状堤防情况验证模型计算结果的合理性.分析计算结果表明,洪雅县城区段在遭遇20年一遇重现期以下洪水时,具有较好的防御能力;在遭遇20年一遇重现期以上洪水时,城区将遭受不同程度淹没影响,对人民群众生命财产安全威胁较大.为了进一步减少灾害损失,同时提高区域整体的防洪减灾能力,因此需要在采取工程措施保障的基础上兼顾进行非工程措施的研究. 展开更多
关键词 ifms软件 一二维耦合水动力模型 洪水淹没分析 洪雅县
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一种用于水下图像恢复的基于IFM的协同学习网络
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作者 王天语 陈苏婷 《计算机与数字工程》 2025年第8期2319-2323,共5页
水下图像由于光在水中传播时的散射和吸收,而遭受色彩失真和低照度的影响。这些问题可能会干扰水下视觉任务,如识别和检测。根据传统的IFM,论文提出了一种协同学习神经网络来解决这些退化问题,该网络为两个子网T-net和A-net,它们分别用... 水下图像由于光在水中传播时的散射和吸收,而遭受色彩失真和低照度的影响。这些问题可能会干扰水下视觉任务,如识别和检测。根据传统的IFM,论文提出了一种协同学习神经网络来解决这些退化问题,该网络为两个子网T-net和A-net,它们分别用来估计传输图和环境光,通过协同学习的方式来恢复水下图像。实验证明,恢复的水下图像在几种最先进的方法中表现出更自然的颜色校正和更好的能见度提高,且拥有更好的稳定性、泛化性。 展开更多
关键词 水下图像恢复 ifm 协同学习 数据合成
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Smart cities,smart systems:A comprehensive review of system dynamics model applications in urban studies in the big data era 被引量:2
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作者 Gift Fabolude Charles Knoble +1 位作者 Anvy Vu Danlin Yu 《Geography and Sustainability》 2025年第1期25-36,共12页
This paper addresses urban sustainability challenges amid global urbanization, emphasizing the need for innova tive approaches aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. While traditional tools and linear models ... This paper addresses urban sustainability challenges amid global urbanization, emphasizing the need for innova tive approaches aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. While traditional tools and linear models offer insights, they fall short in presenting a holistic view of complex urban challenges. System dynamics (SD) models that are often utilized to provide holistic, systematic understanding of a research subject, like the urban system, emerge as valuable tools, but data scarcity and theoretical inadequacy pose challenges. The research reviews relevant papers on recent SD model applications in urban sustainability since 2018, categorizing them based on nine key indicators. Among the reviewed papers, data limitations and model assumptions were identified as ma jor challenges in applying SD models to urban sustainability. This led to exploring the transformative potential of big data analytics, a rare approach in this field as identified by this study, to enhance SD models’ empirical foundation. Integrating big data could provide data-driven calibration, potentially improving predictive accuracy and reducing reliance on simplified assumptions. The paper concludes by advocating for new approaches that reduce assumptions and promote real-time applicable models, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of urban sustainability through the synergy of big data and SD models. 展开更多
关键词 urban sustainability Smart cities System dynamics models Big data analytics urban system complexity Data-driven urbanism
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Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Changes Affecting Regional Ecology in Patna Urban Agglomeration(PUA)in Bihar,India during 1990 to 2024 被引量:2
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作者 Ekta Raman Poonam Sharma +5 位作者 Subhash Anand Praveen Kumar Niraj Kumar Arvind Kumar Sahani Vimlesh Kumar Saket Manish Kumar 《Research in Ecology》 2025年第1期1-14,共14页
Patna is among the cities high populated at risk of ecological and environmental deterioration due to a variety of human activities,such as poor land cover management.One of the most crucial elements of a successful l... Patna is among the cities high populated at risk of ecological and environmental deterioration due to a variety of human activities,such as poor land cover management.One of the most crucial elements of a successful land resource management plan is the evaluation of Land Use Land Cover(LULC).Over the past 20 years,our planet’s land cover resources have undergone substantial changes due to rapid development.The Land Use Land Cover(LULC)categories of the Patna Urban Agglomeration(PUA),including water bodies,agricultural land,barren land,built-up areas,and vegetation,were identified using Geographic Information System(GIS)techniques.Three multi-temporal images were analyzed and classified through supervised classification using the maximum likelihood method.By comparing three separately created LULC categorized maps from 1990 and 2024,temporal changes were analyzed.In order to update land cover or manage natural resources,it is vital to use change detection as a tool to identify changes in LULC over time in PUA,Patna between 1990,2010 and 2024.According to their respective Kappa coefficients,the accuracy rates for 1990,2010 and 2024 LULC are 91.66 and 94.93,respectively.An accuracy evaluation was conducted to determine the correctness of the classification system and to determine the efficacy of the LULC classification maps.One hundred reference test pixels were identified.There have been found significant changes in the LULC were built up area has increased doubled in last thirty-four years of timeline. 展开更多
关键词 LULC GIS urban Agglomeration Ecology Patna
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抗IFM接收机WOFD-MCFC低截获雷达信号设计
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作者 马月红 赵辰 +5 位作者 曹佳琦 周辉 曹彦敏 赵慧亮 王晓成 李乾 《电光与控制》 北大核心 2025年第10期98-103,共6页
为了提高雷达在战场上的生存能力,针对瞬时测频(IFM)接收机设计了一种宽带低截获信号。首先,将正交频分复用(OFDM)信号与线性调频连续波(LFMCW)信号相结合,构成n路同时到达信号对IFM接收机的测频结果产生影响;接着,为了进一步提升信号... 为了提高雷达在战场上的生存能力,针对瞬时测频(IFM)接收机设计了一种宽带低截获信号。首先,将正交频分复用(OFDM)信号与线性调频连续波(LFMCW)信号相结合,构成n路同时到达信号对IFM接收机的测频结果产生影响;接着,为了进一步提升信号的抗检测性能并保持发射天线和接收天线的采样率恒定,采用梳状谱信号进一步增大所设计信号的瞬时带宽,得到所设计的宽带正交频分复用多载波梳状谱信号;之后,对所设计信号的性能进行仿真及实验验证,结果表明,IFM接收机对所设计信号的频率进行测量时,无法准确测得任一子载波信号的频率,且最小测频误差为150 MHz,最大测频误差为1050 MHz,并且所设计的信号与四路线性调频连续波信号相比具有较低的功率谱密度,抗检测性能较好,表明所设计信号具有较好的低截获性。 展开更多
关键词 ifm接收机 低截获性 信号设计
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Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Urban Green Innovation in China 被引量:3
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作者 PENG Wenbin SU Xinyi TANG Yueliang 《Chinese Geographical Science》 2025年第2期234-249,共16页
Cities are important carriers of green innovation.The foundation for accelerating China's ecological civilization construction and fostering regionally coordinated and sustainable development is quantitative analy... Cities are important carriers of green innovation.The foundation for accelerating China's ecological civilization construction and fostering regionally coordinated and sustainable development is quantitative analysis of the spatial evolution pattern and influencing factors of urban green innovation,as well as revealing the development differences between regions.This study's research object includes 284 Chinese cities that are at the prefecture level or above,excluding Xizang,Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan of China due to incomplete data.The spatial evolution characteristics of urban green innovation in China between 2005 and 2021 are comprehensively described using the gravity center model and boxplot analysis.The factors that affect urban green innovation are examined using the spatial Durbin model(SDM).The findings indicate that:1)over the period of the study,the gravity center of urban green innovation in China has always been distributed in the Henan-Anhui border region,showing a migration characteristic of‘initially shifting northeast,subsequently southeast',and the migration speed has gradually increased.2)Although there are also noticeable disparities in east-west,the north-south gap is the main cause of the shift in China's urban green innovation gravity center.The primary areas of urban green innovation in China are the cities with green innovation levels higher than the median.3)The main influencing factor of urban green innovation is the industrial structure level.The effect of the financial development level,the government intervention level,and the openness to the outside world degree on urban green innovation is weakened in turn.The environmental regulation degree is not truly influencing urban green innovation.The impact of various factors on green innovation across cities of different sizes,exhibiting heterogeneity.This study is conducive to broadening the academic community's comprehension of the spatial evolution characteristics of urban green innovation and offering a theoretical framework for developing policies for the all-encompassing green transformation of social and economic growth. 展开更多
关键词 urban green innovation spatial evolution spatial Durbin model China
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Examining the impact of urban environment on healthy vitality of outdoor running based on street view imagery and urban big data 被引量:1
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作者 GU Xinyue ZHU Lei LIU Xintao 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 2025年第3期641-663,共23页
Urban environments offer a wealth of opportunities for residents to respite from their hectic life.Outdoor running or jogging becomes increasingly popular of an option.Impacts of urban environments on outdoor running,... Urban environments offer a wealth of opportunities for residents to respite from their hectic life.Outdoor running or jogging becomes increasingly popular of an option.Impacts of urban environments on outdoor running,despite some initial studies,remain underexplored.This study aims to establish an analytical framework that can holistically assess the urban environment on the healthy vitality of running.The proposed framework is applied to two modern Chinese cities,i.e.,Guangzhou and Shenzhen.We construct three interpretable random forest models to explore the non-linear relationship between environmental variables and running intensity(RI)through analyzing the runners'trajectories and integrating with multi-source urban big data(e.g.,street view imagery,remote sensing,and socio-economic data)across the built,natural,and social dimensions,The findings uncover that road density has the greatest impact on RI,and social variables(e.g.,population density and housing price)and natural variables(e.g.,slope and humidity)all make notable impact on outdoor running.Despite these findings,the impact of environmental variables likely change across different regions due to disparate regional construction and micro-environments,and those specific impacts as well as optimal thresholds also alter.Therefore,construction of healthy cities should take the whole urban environment into account and adapt to local conditions.This study provides a comprehensive evaluation on the influencing variables of healthy vitality and guides sustainable urban planning for creating running-friendly cities. 展开更多
关键词 street view imagery urban pavements healthy cities urban vitality running-friendly cities running intensity
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Modelling of Daily Long-Term Urban Road Traffic Flow Distribution: A Poisson Process Approach 被引量:1
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作者 Jojo D. Lartey 《Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation》 2025年第1期89-105,共17页
Road traffic flow forecasting provides critical information for the operational management of road mobility challenges, and models are used to generate the forecast. This paper uses a random process to present a novel... Road traffic flow forecasting provides critical information for the operational management of road mobility challenges, and models are used to generate the forecast. This paper uses a random process to present a novel traffic modelling framework for aggregate traffic on urban roads. The main idea is that road traffic flow is random, even for the recurrent flow, such as rush hour traffic, which is predisposed to congestion. Therefore, the structure of the aggregate traffic flow model for urban roads should correlate well with the essential variables of the observed random dynamics of the traffic flow phenomena. The novelty of this paper is the developed framework, based on the Poisson process, the kinematics of urban road traffic flow, and the intermediate modelling approach, which were combined to formulate the model. Empirical data from an urban road in Ghana was used to explore the model’s fidelity. The results show that the distribution from the model correlates well with that of the empirical traffic, providing a strong validation of the new framework and instilling confidence in its potential for significantly improved forecasts and, hence, a more hopeful outlook for real-world traffic management. 展开更多
关键词 Poisson Process Macroscopic Traffic Flow urban Road Long-Term Forecast Multiple Entries-Exits Dynamics
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