Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regime...Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.展开更多
Spartina alterniflora invasions seriously threaten the structure and functions of coastal wetlands in China.In this study,the Suaeda salsa community in the Yellow River Estuary wetland was monitored using long-term La...Spartina alterniflora invasions seriously threaten the structure and functions of coastal wetlands in China.In this study,the Suaeda salsa community in the Yellow River Estuary wetland was monitored using long-term Landsat satellite images acquired from 1997 to 2020 to quantify the impact of changes in hydrological connectivity induced by S.alterniflora on neighboring vegetation com-munities.The results showed that S.alterniflora rapidly expanded in the estuary area at a rate of 4.91 km^(2)/yr from 2010 to 2020.At the same time,the hydrological connectivity of the area and the distribution of S.salsa changed significantly.Small tidal creeks dominated the S.alterniflora landscape.The number of tidal creeks increased significantly,but their average length decreased and they tended to develop in a horizontal tree-like pattern.Affected by the changes in hydrological connectivity due to the S.alterniflora invasion,the area of S.salsa decreased by 41.1%,and the degree of landscape fragmentation increased from 1997 to 2020.Variations in the Largest Patch Index(LPI)indicated that the S.alterniflora landscape had become the dominant landscape type in the Yellow River Estuary.The res-ults of standard deviation ellipse(SDE)and Pearson’s correlation analyses indicated that a well-developed hydrological connectivity could promote the maintenance of the S.salsa landscape.The degradation of most S.salsa communities is caused by the influence of S.alterniflora on the morphological characteristics of the hydrological connectivity of tidal creek systems.展开更多
This study characterizes the instrumental record of California climate for the last 170 years.Our goal is to look for hydrologic variability at decadal and longer time scales that would be consistent with paleoclimate...This study characterizes the instrumental record of California climate for the last 170 years.Our goal is to look for hydrologic variability at decadal and longer time scales that would be consistent with paleoclimate estimates of hydrologic variability in California for the last 3000 years.Our study focuses on meteorological summaries of annual precipitation and temperature.The precipitation records go back as far as 1850;the temperature records go back as far as 1880.California hydrologic records show strong variability at the interannual level due to ENSO forcing.They also all show a strong decadal(∼14 yr)cyclicity and evidence for multi-decadal to centennial variability that is consistent with California paleoclimate studies.California temperature records show a long-term warming of 5°F-6°F(2.8°C-3.4°C)associated with global warming,but there is no evidence for a similar long-term trend in hydrologic variability.Long-term Pacific Ocean variability adjacent to central and northern California,Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation(NPGO),show a similar decadal to centennial pattern of variability that we associate with our long-term hydrologic variability.The positive phase of the NPGO and the negative phase of the PDO are associated with the decadal scale(∼14 yr)dry cycles in California for the last 70 years.展开更多
Vertical position changes of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS) stations have been used to study regional terrestrial water storage(TWS) changes. However, the feasibility is still unclear in many ar...Vertical position changes of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS) stations have been used to study regional terrestrial water storage(TWS) changes. However, the feasibility is still unclear in many areas due to diverse local effects. This study aims to evaluate the capability of GNSS vertical displacements in monitoring hydrological variations in four climate settings over Chinese mainland. The spatial and temporal variations of hydrological load-induced(HYDL) vertical displacements at 208 GNSS sites during 2011-2020 were analyzed by comparing with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)/GRACE Follow-On(GFO) and Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) derived TWS changes. The results indicate that GNSS vertical positions show different capabilities in capturing seasonal and non-seasonal hydrological dynamics in different climate regions. Among the four climatic settings, the subtropical monsoon climate(SMC) region, with the largest deformation fluctuation(the regional mean root mean square(RMS) is 7.97 mm), has the highest regional mean HYDL-GRACE and HYDL-GLDAS anti-correlation coefficients(CCs) of-0.47 and-0.45 at the seasonal scale, respectively. For the individual GNSS site, the number of the sites with CC <-0.40 between HYDL and GRACE/GLDASderived TWS changes accounts for 55.1% and 55.1%(SMC), 13.0% and 7.4%(temperate monsoon climate, TMC), 6.7% and 13.3%(temperate continental climate, TCC), 32.3% and 38.7%(plateau climate,PC), respectively. For the non-seasonal term, although the proportion with CC <-0.40 in each climate type decreases mainly due to the influence of local geodynamic and human activities, especially in the SMC and PC regions, GNSS site vertical deformations still show good capability in monitoring hydrological extremes. The results provide valuable information for better application of GNSS to hydrology.展开更多
Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts ...Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts and their lag time from meteorological droughts at a daily scale.In this study,precipitation data were collected to calculate the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and runoff data simulated by the variable infiltration capacity(VIC)model were utilized to compute the standardized runoff index(SRI).The three-threshold run theory was used to identify drought characteristics in China.These drought characteristics were utilized to investigate spatiotemporal variations,seasonal trends,and temporal changes in areas affected by meteorological and hydrological droughts.Additionally,the interconnections and lag effects between meteorological and hydrological droughts were explored.The results indicated that(1)drought occurred during approximately 28%of the past 34 years in China;(2)drought conditions tended to worsen in autumn and weaken in winter;(3)drought-affected areas shifted from northwest to northeast and finally to southern China;and(4)the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts was lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast,with all correlation coefficients exceeding 0.7.The lag times between meteorological and hydrological droughts were longest(5 d)in the Yangtze River,Yellow River,and Hai River basins,and shortest(0 d)in the Tarim River Basin.This study provides a scientific basis for effective early warning of droughts.展开更多
Granite residual soil slope is often destroyed,which poses great threats to Rong County in southeastern Guangxi,China.Heavy rainfall and fissures are the major triggering and internal factors.The fissure that controls...Granite residual soil slope is often destroyed,which poses great threats to Rong County in southeastern Guangxi,China.Heavy rainfall and fissures are the major triggering and internal factors.The fissure that controls the slope stability and the associated failure mechanisms remain unclear.The purpose of this study was to identify the controlling fissures through field investigation,elucidate the effect of its position,and analyze the failure process and hydrological response of residual soil slope through artificial flume model tests.The results comprised five aspects.(1)Surface weathering and unloading fissures could affect slope stability.(2)The failure processes with different fissure positions exhibited inconsistent characteristics.(3)The volume moisture content(VMC)had the most direct response at the fissure tip.The corresponding infiltration rate was the highest.The response time of pore water pressure(PWP)was longer than that of VMC.Fluctuations in PWP were associated with VMC and changes in the soil microstructure due to local deformation.(4)Slope failure was accompanied by serious soil erosion.This could be attributed to the infiltration direction and the interaction between soil and water.(5)Fissured soil slopes experienced five similar failure processes:sheet erosion and partial failure of the slope foot,occurrence of preferential flow and enlargement of the sliding area,creep deformation and tension fissure emergence,block sliding and gully erosion,and flow-slip.展开更多
China has implemented large-scale hydraulic engineering projects in arid regions where water resources are severely scarce to efficiently maximize limited water resources for production and domestic needs.The processe...China has implemented large-scale hydraulic engineering projects in arid regions where water resources are severely scarce to efficiently maximize limited water resources for production and domestic needs.The processes and consequences of how the change of hydrological factors affects vegetation distribution remain unclear.This study employed multi-source remote sensing data to investigate the impact of hydrological factors on vegetation distribution in the Shiyang River Basin(SRB)in the arid region in Northwestern China.The results indicate that:(1)The NDVI values in the SRB showed a fluctuating upward trend of(0.0014/yr),with vegetation increase occurring in 62.71%of the area while vegetation degradation was observed in only 6.44%of the area.(2)The Surface Water Storage Anomaly(SWSA)shows an increasing trend of(0.112 mm/month),while Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly(TWSA)and Groundwater Storage Anomaly(GWSA)exhibit significant declines at rates of-0.124 mm/month and-0.236 mm/month,respectively.(3)Vegetation growth on agricultural land and in planted forests has shown significant growth,in contrast to the general degradation of natural vegetation that is dependent on groundwater.In addition,surface water inputs directly catalyze vegetation growth dynamics.However,the complex mechanisms linking vegetation increase and decreasing terrestrial water reserves in arid regions still need to be studied in depth.The potential negative ecological impacts that may result from the continuous decline of terrestrial and groundwater reserves should not be taken lightly.展开更多
This study provides an in-depth comparative evaluation of landslide susceptibility using two distinct spatial units:and slope units(SUs)and hydrological response units(HRUs),within Goesan County,South Korea.Leveraging...This study provides an in-depth comparative evaluation of landslide susceptibility using two distinct spatial units:and slope units(SUs)and hydrological response units(HRUs),within Goesan County,South Korea.Leveraging the capabilities of the extreme gradient boosting(XGB)algorithm combined with Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),this work assesses the precision and clarity with which each unit predicts areas vulnerable to landslides.SUs focus on the geomorphological features like ridges and valleys,focusing on slope stability and landslide triggers.Conversely,HRUs are established based on a variety of hydrological factors,including land cover,soil type and slope gradients,to encapsulate the dynamic water processes of the region.The methodological framework includes the systematic gathering,preparation and analysis of data,ranging from historical landslide occurrences to topographical and environmental variables like elevation,slope angle and land curvature etc.The XGB algorithm used to construct the Landslide Susceptibility Model(LSM)was combined with SHAP for model interpretation and the results were evaluated using Random Cross-validation(RCV)to ensure accuracy and reliability.To ensure optimal model performance,the XGB algorithm’s hyperparameters were tuned using Differential Evolution,considering multicollinearity-free variables.The results show that SU and HRU are effective for LSM,but their effectiveness varies depending on landscape characteristics.The XGB algorithm demonstrates strong predictive power and SHAP enhances model transparency of the influential variables involved.This work underscores the importance of selecting appropriate assessment units tailored to specific landscape characteristics for accurate LSM.The integration of advanced machine learning techniques with interpretative tools offers a robust framework for landslide susceptibility assessment,improving both predictive capabilities and model interpretability.Future research should integrate broader data sets and explore hybrid analytical models to strengthen the generalizability of these findings across varied geographical settings.展开更多
It is an important standard to judge the flood disaster in the basin whether the rainfall at the flood-inducing interface is reached.In this paper,the Xin'anjiang model,Topmodel model and SCS model were selected t...It is an important standard to judge the flood disaster in the basin whether the rainfall at the flood-inducing interface is reached.In this paper,the Xin'anjiang model,Topmodel model and SCS model were selected to calculate and compare the rainfall at the flood-inducing interface in the Zhanghe Reservoir basin in Hubei Province.The results showed that average relative error and average absolute error of Xin'anjiang model were-3.36%and-21.46×10^(5)m^(3),which were the minimum,followed by Topmodel model with 5.72%and 26.22×10^(5)m^(3),SCS model with 11.33%and 58.13×10^(5)m^(3).The minimum absolute error of the three hydrological models in calculating the rainfall at the critical interface was 3.26 mm,while the maximum was 49.24 mm.When the initial water level exceeded 120 m,the difference among the three models in calculating the rainfall at the critical interface became more and more obvious.When the reservoir water level was lower than 120 m,it mainly referred to the calculation results of Xin'anjiang model.When the reservoir water level was higher than 120 m,it mainly referred to the calculation results of Topmodel model.The research conclusion can provide reference for small and medium-sized basins selecting hydrological model to calculate the rainfall at the flood-inducing interface.展开更多
Characterization of vegetation effect on soil response is essential for comprehending site-specific hydrological processes.Traditional research often relies on sensors or remote sensing data to examine the hydrologica...Characterization of vegetation effect on soil response is essential for comprehending site-specific hydrological processes.Traditional research often relies on sensors or remote sensing data to examine the hydrological properties of vegetation zones,yet these methods are limited by either measurement sparsity or spatial inaccuracy.Therefore,this paper is the first to propose a data-driven approach that incorporates high-temporal-resolution electrical resistivity tomography(ERT)to quantify soil hydrological response.Time-lapse ERT is deployed on a vegetated slope site in Foshan,China,during a discontinuous rainfall induced by Typhoon Haikui.A total of 97 ERT measurements were collected with an average time interval of 2.7 hours.The Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM)is applied to quantify the level of response and objectively classify impact zones based on features extracted directly from the ERT data.The resistivity-moisture content correlation is established based on on-site sensor data to characterize infiltration and evapotranspiration across wet-dry conditions.The findings are compared with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),a common indicator for vegetation quantification,to reveal potential spatial errors in remote sensing data.In addition,this study provides discussions on the potential applications and future directions.This paper showcases significant spatio-temporal advantages over existing studies,providing a more detailed and accurate characterization of superficial soil hydrological response.展开更多
To address the problem that the display effect of hydrologic test data was not intuitive,the three-dimensional modeling technology of a hydrologic test reach based on GIS technology was proposed.The reach of of the Ye...To address the problem that the display effect of hydrologic test data was not intuitive,the three-dimensional modeling technology of a hydrologic test reach based on GIS technology was proposed.The reach of of the Yellow River around Lanzhou hydrological station was selected to study three-dimensional modeling.The elevation data of river was processed through three-dimensional model constructing,water surface modeling and three-dimensional animation demonstration by using ArcGIS Pro software.Based on the historical highest flood level data of the test reach on September 15,1981,the real scene restoration was carried out based on the three-dimensional model,and the hydrological factors such as water depth and channel storage were analyzed.The three-dimensional modeling based on GIS technology can directly and realistically reflect the changes of topography and water surface of the test reach,and improve the application of hydrologic test results in flood control.展开更多
Critical zone(CZ)plays a vital role in sustaining biodiversity and humanity.However,flux quantification within CZ,particularly in terms of subsurface hydrological partitioning,remains a significant challenge.This stud...Critical zone(CZ)plays a vital role in sustaining biodiversity and humanity.However,flux quantification within CZ,particularly in terms of subsurface hydrological partitioning,remains a significant challenge.This study focused on quantifying subsurface hydrological partitioning,specifically in an alpine mountainous area,and highlighted the important role of lateral flow during this process.Precipitation was usually classified as two parts into the soil:increased soil water content(SWC)and lateral flow out of the soil pit.It was found that 65%–88%precipitation contributed to lateral flow.The second common partitioning class showed an increase in SWC caused by both precipitation and lateral flow into the soil pit.In this case,lateral flow contributed to the SWC increase ranging from 43%to 74%,which was notably larger than the SWC increase caused by precipitation.On alpine meadows,lateral flow from the soil pit occurred when the shallow soil was wetter than the field capacity.This result highlighted the need for three-dimensional simulation between soil layers in Earth system models(ESMs).During evapotranspiration process,significant differences were observed in the classification of subsurface hydrological partitioning among different vegetation types.Due to tangled and aggregated fine roots in the surface soil on alpine meadows,the majority of subsurface responses involved lateral flow,which provided 98%–100%of evapotranspiration(ET).On grassland,there was a high probability(0.87),which ET was entirely provided by lateral flow.The main reason for underestimating transpiration through soil water dynamics in previous research was the neglect of lateral root water uptake.Furthermore,there was a probability of 0.12,which ET was entirely provided by SWC decrease on grassland.In this case,there was a high probability(0.98)that soil water responses only occurred at layer 2(10–20 cm),because grass roots mainly distributed in this soil layer,and grasses often used their deep roots for water uptake during ET.To improve the estimation of soil water dynamics and ET,we established a random forest(RF)model to simulate lateral flow and then corrected the community land model(CLM).RF model demonstrated good performance and led to significant improvements in CLM simulation.These findings enhance our understanding of subsurface hydrological partitioning and emphasize the importance of considering lateral flow in ESMs and hydrological research.展开更多
In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the ...In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.展开更多
Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role...Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.展开更多
Against the backdrop of global warming,the dynamics of glaciers and their water resources have significant implications for hydrological processes in the arid regions of Northwest China.The Aksu River,which is an esse...Against the backdrop of global warming,the dynamics of glaciers and their water resources have significant implications for hydrological processes in the arid regions of Northwest China.The Aksu River,which is an essential inland river enriched by substantial meltwater contributions,plays a pivotal role in the economic,ecological,and social development of the region.Based on 231 water samples collected during the period of intense glacial ablation in 2023,this study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the hydrochemical and stable isotopic characteristics of the Little Kurgan glacial basin in the Aksu River source region.A Piper diagram classified the hydrochemical type of the river water as Calcium-Bicarbonate.Analysis based on a Gibbs diagram indicated that rock weathering is the predominant factor affecting the hydrochemical properties within the studied basin.Through application of principal component analysis and end-member mixing analysis,it was determined that the glacier meltwater contribution to runoff was 67%,61%,and 55%in July,August,and September,respectively.The findings of this study reveal that glacier meltwater is the principal component of the river water,and highlight the critical impact of alterations in glacier ablation on the hydrological cycle within the Aksu River source region,which is vitally important for sustainable water resource management.展开更多
Hydrological models are crucial for characterizing large-scale water quantity variations and correcting GNSS reference station vertical displacements.We evaluated the robustness of multiple models,such as the Global L...Hydrological models are crucial for characterizing large-scale water quantity variations and correcting GNSS reference station vertical displacements.We evaluated the robustness of multiple models,such as the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS),the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS),the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP),and the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM).Inter-model and outer comparisons with Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinate time series,satellite gravity field Mascon solutions,and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) guide our assessment.Results confirm WGHM's 26% greater effectiveness in correcting nonlinear variations in GPS height time series compared to NCEP.In the Amazon River Basin,a 5-month lag between FLDAS,GLDAS,and satellite gravity results is observed.In eastern Asia and Australia,NCEP's Terrestrial Water Storage Changes (TWSC)-derived surface displacements correlate differently with precipitation compared to other models.Three combined hydrological models (H-VCE,H-EWM,and H-CVM) utilizing Variance Component Estimation (VCE),Entropy Weight Method (EWM),and Coefficient of Variation Method (CVM) are formulated.Correcting nonlinear variations with combined models enhances global GPS height scatter by 15%-17%.Correlation with precipitation increases by 25%-30%,and with satellite gravity,rises from 0.2 to 0.8 at maximum.The combined model eliminates time lag in the Amazon Basin TWSC analysis,exhibiting a four times higher signal-to-noise ratio than single models.H-VCE demonstrates the highest accuracy.In summary,the combined hydrological model minimizes discrepancies among individual models,significantly improving accuracy for monitoring large-scale TWSC.展开更多
Hydrological modeling plays a crucial role in efficiently managing water resources and understanding the hydrologic behavior of watersheds. This study aims to simulate daily streamflow in the Godavari River Basin in M...Hydrological modeling plays a crucial role in efficiently managing water resources and understanding the hydrologic behavior of watersheds. This study aims to simulate daily streamflow in the Godavari River Basin in Maharashtra using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a process-based hydrological model used to predict water balance components, sediment levels, and nutrient contamination. In this research, we used integrated remote sensing and GIS data, including Digital Elevation Models (DEM), land use and land cover (LULC) maps, soil maps, and observed precipitation and temperature data, as input for developing the SWAT model to assess surface runoff in this large river basin. The Godavari River Basin under study was divided into 25 sub-basins, comprising 151 hydrological response units categorized by unique land cover, soil, and slope characteristics using the SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated against observed runoff data for two time periods: 2003-2006 and 2007-2010 respectively. Model performance was assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results show the effectiveness of the SWAT2012 model, with R2 value of 0.84 during calibration and 0.86 during validation. NSE values also ranged from 0.84 during calibration to 0.85 during validation. These findings enhance our understanding of surface runoff dynamics in the Godavari River Basin under study and highlight the suit-ability of the SWAT model for this region.展开更多
The Tibetan Plateau(TP)has undergone significant warming and humidification in recent years,resulting in rapid permafrost degradation and spatiotemporal variations in hydrological processes,such as subsurface water tr...The Tibetan Plateau(TP)has undergone significant warming and humidification in recent years,resulting in rapid permafrost degradation and spatiotemporal variations in hydrological processes,such as subsurface water transport,hydrothermal conversion,and runoff generation.Understanding the mechanisms of hydrological processes in permafrost areas under changing climate is crucial for accurately evaluating hydrological responses on the TP.This study comprehensively discusses the permafrost hydrological processes of the TP under changing climate.Topics include climate conditions and permafrost states,subsurface water transport under freeze-thaw conditions,development of thermokarst lakes and hydrothermal processes,and runoff response during permafrost degradation.This study offers a comprehensive understanding of permafrost changes and their hydrological responses,contributing significantly to water security and sustainable development on the TP.展开更多
Geostatistical Kriging is performed on hydrologic model parameters in a two-dimensional region—different from the geographical space—as a hydrospace. The x-axis in percent is a relative difference of soil characteri...Geostatistical Kriging is performed on hydrologic model parameters in a two-dimensional region—different from the geographical space—as a hydrospace. The x-axis in percent is a relative difference of soil characteristics between an embedded 12 watersheds in reference to a large one related to the Niger River in West Africa;noted var_WHC, it stands for Water Holding Capacity. The y-axis in percent, var_Nash, is a hydrologic model’s efficiency in two contexts: (a) calibrated model parameters on the reference watershed are injected in modelling on each sub-watershed in validation phase to produce a series of Nash values as references, (b) a second series of Nash values is produced in calibrations. SimulHyd which stands for Simulation of Hydrological Systems is applied along with a French hydrological model—Genie Rural with 2 parameters at Monthly time step. The built Nash-WHC hydrospace and its two variants, or hybrids, permit the krige of both hydrologic model’s parameters. The relative variation of upper module absolute ranges from 0.1% to 15.68%—the developed hydro-geostatistics practice is considered in reference to hydrological calibration. Accepted as hydrogeostatistics practice, it is applicable to ungauged watersheds to estimate hydrologic models’ parameters.展开更多
Flood forecasting is critical for mitigating flood damage and ensuring a safe operation of hydroelectric power plants and reservoirs.This paper presents a new hybrid hydrological model based on the combination of the ...Flood forecasting is critical for mitigating flood damage and ensuring a safe operation of hydroelectric power plants and reservoirs.This paper presents a new hybrid hydrological model based on the combination of the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System(HEC-HMS)hydrological model and an Encoder-Decoder-Long Short-Term Memory network to enhance the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting.The proposed hybrid model has been applied to the Krong H'nang hydropower reservoir.The observed data from 33 floods monitored between 2016 and 2021 are used to calibrate,validate,and test the hybrid model.Results show that the HEC-HMS-artificial neural network hybrid model significantly improves the forecast quality,especially for results at a longer forecasting time.In detail,the Kling-Gupta efficiency(KGE)index,for example,increased from ΔKGE=16%at time t+1h to ΔKGE=69%at time t+6 h.Similar results were obtained for other indicators including peak error and volume error.The computer program developed for this study is being used in practice at the Krong H'nang hydropower to aid in reservoir planning,flood control,and water resource efficiency.展开更多
基金supported by the funding Riset Unggulan Daerah 2022 of the Bureau of Development Planning and Research in Central Java Province(BAPPEDA Provinsi Jawa Tengah).
文摘Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.
基金Under the auspices of Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U2006215,U1806218)the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2017YFC0505902)。
文摘Spartina alterniflora invasions seriously threaten the structure and functions of coastal wetlands in China.In this study,the Suaeda salsa community in the Yellow River Estuary wetland was monitored using long-term Landsat satellite images acquired from 1997 to 2020 to quantify the impact of changes in hydrological connectivity induced by S.alterniflora on neighboring vegetation com-munities.The results showed that S.alterniflora rapidly expanded in the estuary area at a rate of 4.91 km^(2)/yr from 2010 to 2020.At the same time,the hydrological connectivity of the area and the distribution of S.salsa changed significantly.Small tidal creeks dominated the S.alterniflora landscape.The number of tidal creeks increased significantly,but their average length decreased and they tended to develop in a horizontal tree-like pattern.Affected by the changes in hydrological connectivity due to the S.alterniflora invasion,the area of S.salsa decreased by 41.1%,and the degree of landscape fragmentation increased from 1997 to 2020.Variations in the Largest Patch Index(LPI)indicated that the S.alterniflora landscape had become the dominant landscape type in the Yellow River Estuary.The res-ults of standard deviation ellipse(SDE)and Pearson’s correlation analyses indicated that a well-developed hydrological connectivity could promote the maintenance of the S.salsa landscape.The degradation of most S.salsa communities is caused by the influence of S.alterniflora on the morphological characteristics of the hydrological connectivity of tidal creek systems.
文摘This study characterizes the instrumental record of California climate for the last 170 years.Our goal is to look for hydrologic variability at decadal and longer time scales that would be consistent with paleoclimate estimates of hydrologic variability in California for the last 3000 years.Our study focuses on meteorological summaries of annual precipitation and temperature.The precipitation records go back as far as 1850;the temperature records go back as far as 1880.California hydrologic records show strong variability at the interannual level due to ENSO forcing.They also all show a strong decadal(∼14 yr)cyclicity and evidence for multi-decadal to centennial variability that is consistent with California paleoclimate studies.California temperature records show a long-term warming of 5°F-6°F(2.8°C-3.4°C)associated with global warming,but there is no evidence for a similar long-term trend in hydrologic variability.Long-term Pacific Ocean variability adjacent to central and northern California,Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation(NPGO),show a similar decadal to centennial pattern of variability that we associate with our long-term hydrologic variability.The positive phase of the NPGO and the negative phase of the PDO are associated with the decadal scale(∼14 yr)dry cycles in California for the last 70 years.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(42064002,42004013,42204006)the GuangxiNatural Science Foundation of China(2024GXNSFDA010041)+5 种基金Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022A1515010469)Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics(Grant no.21-238-21-05)the Open Fund of Hubei Luojia Laboratory(230100019,230100020)The GNSS observation data are provided by Crustal Movement Observation Network of China(CMONC)The GRACE/GFO mascon gravimetry data products are provided by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of TechnologyThe GLDAS data products are provided by NASA Earthdata.
文摘Vertical position changes of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS) stations have been used to study regional terrestrial water storage(TWS) changes. However, the feasibility is still unclear in many areas due to diverse local effects. This study aims to evaluate the capability of GNSS vertical displacements in monitoring hydrological variations in four climate settings over Chinese mainland. The spatial and temporal variations of hydrological load-induced(HYDL) vertical displacements at 208 GNSS sites during 2011-2020 were analyzed by comparing with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)/GRACE Follow-On(GFO) and Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) derived TWS changes. The results indicate that GNSS vertical positions show different capabilities in capturing seasonal and non-seasonal hydrological dynamics in different climate regions. Among the four climatic settings, the subtropical monsoon climate(SMC) region, with the largest deformation fluctuation(the regional mean root mean square(RMS) is 7.97 mm), has the highest regional mean HYDL-GRACE and HYDL-GLDAS anti-correlation coefficients(CCs) of-0.47 and-0.45 at the seasonal scale, respectively. For the individual GNSS site, the number of the sites with CC <-0.40 between HYDL and GRACE/GLDASderived TWS changes accounts for 55.1% and 55.1%(SMC), 13.0% and 7.4%(temperate monsoon climate, TMC), 6.7% and 13.3%(temperate continental climate, TCC), 32.3% and 38.7%(plateau climate,PC), respectively. For the non-seasonal term, although the proportion with CC <-0.40 in each climate type decreases mainly due to the influence of local geodynamic and human activities, especially in the SMC and PC regions, GNSS site vertical deformations still show good capability in monitoring hydrological extremes. The results provide valuable information for better application of GNSS to hydrology.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3006505)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(Grant No.B240203007)the National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention(Grant No.524015222)。
文摘Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts and their lag time from meteorological droughts at a daily scale.In this study,precipitation data were collected to calculate the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and runoff data simulated by the variable infiltration capacity(VIC)model were utilized to compute the standardized runoff index(SRI).The three-threshold run theory was used to identify drought characteristics in China.These drought characteristics were utilized to investigate spatiotemporal variations,seasonal trends,and temporal changes in areas affected by meteorological and hydrological droughts.Additionally,the interconnections and lag effects between meteorological and hydrological droughts were explored.The results indicated that(1)drought occurred during approximately 28%of the past 34 years in China;(2)drought conditions tended to worsen in autumn and weaken in winter;(3)drought-affected areas shifted from northwest to northeast and finally to southern China;and(4)the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts was lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast,with all correlation coefficients exceeding 0.7.The lag times between meteorological and hydrological droughts were longest(5 d)in the Yangtze River,Yellow River,and Hai River basins,and shortest(0 d)in the Tarim River Basin.This study provides a scientific basis for effective early warning of droughts.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41901132)the Natural Scientific Project of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region(Nos.2019GXNSFAA185015,2021GXNSFBA220025)+1 种基金the Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Foundation of Guangxi University(No.2022JCC026)the Project of Key Laboratory of Early Rapid Identification,Prevention and Control of Geological Diseases in Traffic Corridor of High Intensity Earthquake Mountainous Area of Yunnan Province(No.KLGDTC-2021-01)。
文摘Granite residual soil slope is often destroyed,which poses great threats to Rong County in southeastern Guangxi,China.Heavy rainfall and fissures are the major triggering and internal factors.The fissure that controls the slope stability and the associated failure mechanisms remain unclear.The purpose of this study was to identify the controlling fissures through field investigation,elucidate the effect of its position,and analyze the failure process and hydrological response of residual soil slope through artificial flume model tests.The results comprised five aspects.(1)Surface weathering and unloading fissures could affect slope stability.(2)The failure processes with different fissure positions exhibited inconsistent characteristics.(3)The volume moisture content(VMC)had the most direct response at the fissure tip.The corresponding infiltration rate was the highest.The response time of pore water pressure(PWP)was longer than that of VMC.Fluctuations in PWP were associated with VMC and changes in the soil microstructure due to local deformation.(4)Slope failure was accompanied by serious soil erosion.This could be attributed to the infiltration direction and the interaction between soil and water.(5)Fissured soil slopes experienced five similar failure processes:sheet erosion and partial failure of the slope foot,occurrence of preferential flow and enlargement of the sliding area,creep deformation and tension fissure emergence,block sliding and gully erosion,and flow-slip.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42371040,41971036)Key Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(23JRRA698)+2 种基金Key Research and Development Program of Gansu Province(22YF7NA122)Cultivation Program of Major key projects of Northwest Normal University(NWNU-LKZD-202302)Oasis Scientific Research achievements Breakthrough Action Plan Project of Northwest normal University(NWNU-LZKX-202303).
文摘China has implemented large-scale hydraulic engineering projects in arid regions where water resources are severely scarce to efficiently maximize limited water resources for production and domestic needs.The processes and consequences of how the change of hydrological factors affects vegetation distribution remain unclear.This study employed multi-source remote sensing data to investigate the impact of hydrological factors on vegetation distribution in the Shiyang River Basin(SRB)in the arid region in Northwestern China.The results indicate that:(1)The NDVI values in the SRB showed a fluctuating upward trend of(0.0014/yr),with vegetation increase occurring in 62.71%of the area while vegetation degradation was observed in only 6.44%of the area.(2)The Surface Water Storage Anomaly(SWSA)shows an increasing trend of(0.112 mm/month),while Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly(TWSA)and Groundwater Storage Anomaly(GWSA)exhibit significant declines at rates of-0.124 mm/month and-0.236 mm/month,respectively.(3)Vegetation growth on agricultural land and in planted forests has shown significant growth,in contrast to the general degradation of natural vegetation that is dependent on groundwater.In addition,surface water inputs directly catalyze vegetation growth dynamics.However,the complex mechanisms linking vegetation increase and decreasing terrestrial water reserves in arid regions still need to be studied in depth.The potential negative ecological impacts that may result from the continuous decline of terrestrial and groundwater reserves should not be taken lightly.
基金supported by a National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)grant funded by the Korean government(MSIT)(RS-2023-00222536).
文摘This study provides an in-depth comparative evaluation of landslide susceptibility using two distinct spatial units:and slope units(SUs)and hydrological response units(HRUs),within Goesan County,South Korea.Leveraging the capabilities of the extreme gradient boosting(XGB)algorithm combined with Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),this work assesses the precision and clarity with which each unit predicts areas vulnerable to landslides.SUs focus on the geomorphological features like ridges and valleys,focusing on slope stability and landslide triggers.Conversely,HRUs are established based on a variety of hydrological factors,including land cover,soil type and slope gradients,to encapsulate the dynamic water processes of the region.The methodological framework includes the systematic gathering,preparation and analysis of data,ranging from historical landslide occurrences to topographical and environmental variables like elevation,slope angle and land curvature etc.The XGB algorithm used to construct the Landslide Susceptibility Model(LSM)was combined with SHAP for model interpretation and the results were evaluated using Random Cross-validation(RCV)to ensure accuracy and reliability.To ensure optimal model performance,the XGB algorithm’s hyperparameters were tuned using Differential Evolution,considering multicollinearity-free variables.The results show that SU and HRU are effective for LSM,but their effectiveness varies depending on landscape characteristics.The XGB algorithm demonstrates strong predictive power and SHAP enhances model transparency of the influential variables involved.This work underscores the importance of selecting appropriate assessment units tailored to specific landscape characteristics for accurate LSM.The integration of advanced machine learning techniques with interpretative tools offers a robust framework for landslide susceptibility assessment,improving both predictive capabilities and model interpretability.Future research should integrate broader data sets and explore hybrid analytical models to strengthen the generalizability of these findings across varied geographical settings.
基金Supported by Open Project Fund of China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory(2023BHR-Y26)Innovation Project Fund of Wuhan Metropolitan Area Meteorological Joint Science and Technology(WHCSQY202305)+1 种基金Innovation and Development Special Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J019)Project of Huanggang Meteorological Bureau's Scientific Research(2022Y02).
文摘It is an important standard to judge the flood disaster in the basin whether the rainfall at the flood-inducing interface is reached.In this paper,the Xin'anjiang model,Topmodel model and SCS model were selected to calculate and compare the rainfall at the flood-inducing interface in the Zhanghe Reservoir basin in Hubei Province.The results showed that average relative error and average absolute error of Xin'anjiang model were-3.36%and-21.46×10^(5)m^(3),which were the minimum,followed by Topmodel model with 5.72%and 26.22×10^(5)m^(3),SCS model with 11.33%and 58.13×10^(5)m^(3).The minimum absolute error of the three hydrological models in calculating the rainfall at the critical interface was 3.26 mm,while the maximum was 49.24 mm.When the initial water level exceeded 120 m,the difference among the three models in calculating the rainfall at the critical interface became more and more obvious.When the reservoir water level was lower than 120 m,it mainly referred to the calculation results of Xin'anjiang model.When the reservoir water level was higher than 120 m,it mainly referred to the calculation results of Topmodel model.The research conclusion can provide reference for small and medium-sized basins selecting hydrological model to calculate the rainfall at the flood-inducing interface.
基金support from the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFC3001003)Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology(2022A0505030019)Science and Technology Development Fund,Macao SAR(File nos.0056/2023/RIB2,001/2024/SKL).
文摘Characterization of vegetation effect on soil response is essential for comprehending site-specific hydrological processes.Traditional research often relies on sensors or remote sensing data to examine the hydrological properties of vegetation zones,yet these methods are limited by either measurement sparsity or spatial inaccuracy.Therefore,this paper is the first to propose a data-driven approach that incorporates high-temporal-resolution electrical resistivity tomography(ERT)to quantify soil hydrological response.Time-lapse ERT is deployed on a vegetated slope site in Foshan,China,during a discontinuous rainfall induced by Typhoon Haikui.A total of 97 ERT measurements were collected with an average time interval of 2.7 hours.The Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM)is applied to quantify the level of response and objectively classify impact zones based on features extracted directly from the ERT data.The resistivity-moisture content correlation is established based on on-site sensor data to characterize infiltration and evapotranspiration across wet-dry conditions.The findings are compared with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),a common indicator for vegetation quantification,to reveal potential spatial errors in remote sensing data.In addition,this study provides discussions on the potential applications and future directions.This paper showcases significant spatio-temporal advantages over existing studies,providing a more detailed and accurate characterization of superficial soil hydrological response.
文摘To address the problem that the display effect of hydrologic test data was not intuitive,the three-dimensional modeling technology of a hydrologic test reach based on GIS technology was proposed.The reach of of the Yellow River around Lanzhou hydrological station was selected to study three-dimensional modeling.The elevation data of river was processed through three-dimensional model constructing,water surface modeling and three-dimensional animation demonstration by using ArcGIS Pro software.Based on the historical highest flood level data of the test reach on September 15,1981,the real scene restoration was carried out based on the three-dimensional model,and the hydrological factors such as water depth and channel storage were analyzed.The three-dimensional modeling based on GIS technology can directly and realistically reflect the changes of topography and water surface of the test reach,and improve the application of hydrologic test results in flood control.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42371022,42030501,41877148).
文摘Critical zone(CZ)plays a vital role in sustaining biodiversity and humanity.However,flux quantification within CZ,particularly in terms of subsurface hydrological partitioning,remains a significant challenge.This study focused on quantifying subsurface hydrological partitioning,specifically in an alpine mountainous area,and highlighted the important role of lateral flow during this process.Precipitation was usually classified as two parts into the soil:increased soil water content(SWC)and lateral flow out of the soil pit.It was found that 65%–88%precipitation contributed to lateral flow.The second common partitioning class showed an increase in SWC caused by both precipitation and lateral flow into the soil pit.In this case,lateral flow contributed to the SWC increase ranging from 43%to 74%,which was notably larger than the SWC increase caused by precipitation.On alpine meadows,lateral flow from the soil pit occurred when the shallow soil was wetter than the field capacity.This result highlighted the need for three-dimensional simulation between soil layers in Earth system models(ESMs).During evapotranspiration process,significant differences were observed in the classification of subsurface hydrological partitioning among different vegetation types.Due to tangled and aggregated fine roots in the surface soil on alpine meadows,the majority of subsurface responses involved lateral flow,which provided 98%–100%of evapotranspiration(ET).On grassland,there was a high probability(0.87),which ET was entirely provided by lateral flow.The main reason for underestimating transpiration through soil water dynamics in previous research was the neglect of lateral root water uptake.Furthermore,there was a probability of 0.12,which ET was entirely provided by SWC decrease on grassland.In this case,there was a high probability(0.98)that soil water responses only occurred at layer 2(10–20 cm),because grass roots mainly distributed in this soil layer,and grasses often used their deep roots for water uptake during ET.To improve the estimation of soil water dynamics and ET,we established a random forest(RF)model to simulate lateral flow and then corrected the community land model(CLM).RF model demonstrated good performance and led to significant improvements in CLM simulation.These findings enhance our understanding of subsurface hydrological partitioning and emphasize the importance of considering lateral flow in ESMs and hydrological research.
文摘In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.
基金Under the auspices of the Yunnan Scientist Workstation on International River Research of Daming He(No.KXJGZS-2019-005)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42201040)+1 种基金National Key Research and Development Project of China(No.2016YFA0601601)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M733006)。
文摘Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42071076,No.41501085Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions,No.PAPD-20181105Jiangsu Normal University Support Fund for Doctoral Teachers Research,No.17XLR002。
文摘Against the backdrop of global warming,the dynamics of glaciers and their water resources have significant implications for hydrological processes in the arid regions of Northwest China.The Aksu River,which is an essential inland river enriched by substantial meltwater contributions,plays a pivotal role in the economic,ecological,and social development of the region.Based on 231 water samples collected during the period of intense glacial ablation in 2023,this study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the hydrochemical and stable isotopic characteristics of the Little Kurgan glacial basin in the Aksu River source region.A Piper diagram classified the hydrochemical type of the river water as Calcium-Bicarbonate.Analysis based on a Gibbs diagram indicated that rock weathering is the predominant factor affecting the hydrochemical properties within the studied basin.Through application of principal component analysis and end-member mixing analysis,it was determined that the glacier meltwater contribution to runoff was 67%,61%,and 55%in July,August,and September,respectively.The findings of this study reveal that glacier meltwater is the principal component of the river water,and highlight the critical impact of alterations in glacier ablation on the hydrological cycle within the Aksu River source region,which is vitally important for sustainable water resource management.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42174030)Major Science and Technology Program for Hubei Province (Grant No.2022AAA002)+2 种基金Special fund of Hubei Luojia Loboratory (220100020)the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 42304031the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation 2022M722441。
文摘Hydrological models are crucial for characterizing large-scale water quantity variations and correcting GNSS reference station vertical displacements.We evaluated the robustness of multiple models,such as the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS),the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS),the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP),and the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM).Inter-model and outer comparisons with Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinate time series,satellite gravity field Mascon solutions,and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) guide our assessment.Results confirm WGHM's 26% greater effectiveness in correcting nonlinear variations in GPS height time series compared to NCEP.In the Amazon River Basin,a 5-month lag between FLDAS,GLDAS,and satellite gravity results is observed.In eastern Asia and Australia,NCEP's Terrestrial Water Storage Changes (TWSC)-derived surface displacements correlate differently with precipitation compared to other models.Three combined hydrological models (H-VCE,H-EWM,and H-CVM) utilizing Variance Component Estimation (VCE),Entropy Weight Method (EWM),and Coefficient of Variation Method (CVM) are formulated.Correcting nonlinear variations with combined models enhances global GPS height scatter by 15%-17%.Correlation with precipitation increases by 25%-30%,and with satellite gravity,rises from 0.2 to 0.8 at maximum.The combined model eliminates time lag in the Amazon Basin TWSC analysis,exhibiting a four times higher signal-to-noise ratio than single models.H-VCE demonstrates the highest accuracy.In summary,the combined hydrological model minimizes discrepancies among individual models,significantly improving accuracy for monitoring large-scale TWSC.
文摘Hydrological modeling plays a crucial role in efficiently managing water resources and understanding the hydrologic behavior of watersheds. This study aims to simulate daily streamflow in the Godavari River Basin in Maharashtra using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a process-based hydrological model used to predict water balance components, sediment levels, and nutrient contamination. In this research, we used integrated remote sensing and GIS data, including Digital Elevation Models (DEM), land use and land cover (LULC) maps, soil maps, and observed precipitation and temperature data, as input for developing the SWAT model to assess surface runoff in this large river basin. The Godavari River Basin under study was divided into 25 sub-basins, comprising 151 hydrological response units categorized by unique land cover, soil, and slope characteristics using the SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated against observed runoff data for two time periods: 2003-2006 and 2007-2010 respectively. Model performance was assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results show the effectiveness of the SWAT2012 model, with R2 value of 0.84 during calibration and 0.86 during validation. NSE values also ranged from 0.84 during calibration to 0.85 during validation. These findings enhance our understanding of surface runoff dynamics in the Godavari River Basin under study and highlight the suit-ability of the SWAT model for this region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.42201015,U2240217,and U2340213)the Jiangsu Funding Program for Excellent Postdoctoral Talent(Grant No.2022ZB173)the Special Fund of the National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention(Grant No.523024862).
文摘The Tibetan Plateau(TP)has undergone significant warming and humidification in recent years,resulting in rapid permafrost degradation and spatiotemporal variations in hydrological processes,such as subsurface water transport,hydrothermal conversion,and runoff generation.Understanding the mechanisms of hydrological processes in permafrost areas under changing climate is crucial for accurately evaluating hydrological responses on the TP.This study comprehensively discusses the permafrost hydrological processes of the TP under changing climate.Topics include climate conditions and permafrost states,subsurface water transport under freeze-thaw conditions,development of thermokarst lakes and hydrothermal processes,and runoff response during permafrost degradation.This study offers a comprehensive understanding of permafrost changes and their hydrological responses,contributing significantly to water security and sustainable development on the TP.
文摘Geostatistical Kriging is performed on hydrologic model parameters in a two-dimensional region—different from the geographical space—as a hydrospace. The x-axis in percent is a relative difference of soil characteristics between an embedded 12 watersheds in reference to a large one related to the Niger River in West Africa;noted var_WHC, it stands for Water Holding Capacity. The y-axis in percent, var_Nash, is a hydrologic model’s efficiency in two contexts: (a) calibrated model parameters on the reference watershed are injected in modelling on each sub-watershed in validation phase to produce a series of Nash values as references, (b) a second series of Nash values is produced in calibrations. SimulHyd which stands for Simulation of Hydrological Systems is applied along with a French hydrological model—Genie Rural with 2 parameters at Monthly time step. The built Nash-WHC hydrospace and its two variants, or hybrids, permit the krige of both hydrologic model’s parameters. The relative variation of upper module absolute ranges from 0.1% to 15.68%—the developed hydro-geostatistics practice is considered in reference to hydrological calibration. Accepted as hydrogeostatistics practice, it is applicable to ungauged watersheds to estimate hydrologic models’ parameters.
基金Vingroup JSCMaster,PhD Scholarship Program of Vingroup Innovation Foundation,Grant/Award Number:VINIF.2021.ThS.97。
文摘Flood forecasting is critical for mitigating flood damage and ensuring a safe operation of hydroelectric power plants and reservoirs.This paper presents a new hybrid hydrological model based on the combination of the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System(HEC-HMS)hydrological model and an Encoder-Decoder-Long Short-Term Memory network to enhance the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting.The proposed hybrid model has been applied to the Krong H'nang hydropower reservoir.The observed data from 33 floods monitored between 2016 and 2021 are used to calibrate,validate,and test the hybrid model.Results show that the HEC-HMS-artificial neural network hybrid model significantly improves the forecast quality,especially for results at a longer forecasting time.In detail,the Kling-Gupta efficiency(KGE)index,for example,increased from ΔKGE=16%at time t+1h to ΔKGE=69%at time t+6 h.Similar results were obtained for other indicators including peak error and volume error.The computer program developed for this study is being used in practice at the Krong H'nang hydropower to aid in reservoir planning,flood control,and water resource efficiency.
