Forecasting river flow is crucial for optimal planning,management,and sustainability using freshwater resources.Many machine learning(ML)approaches have been enhanced to improve streamflow prediction.Hybrid techniques...Forecasting river flow is crucial for optimal planning,management,and sustainability using freshwater resources.Many machine learning(ML)approaches have been enhanced to improve streamflow prediction.Hybrid techniques have been viewed as a viable method for enhancing the accuracy of univariate streamflow estimation when compared to standalone approaches.Current researchers have also emphasised using hybrid models to improve forecast accuracy.Accordingly,this paper conducts an updated literature review of applications of hybrid models in estimating streamflow over the last five years,summarising data preprocessing,univariate machine learning modelling strategy,advantages and disadvantages of standalone ML techniques,hybrid models,and performance metrics.This study focuses on two types of hybrid models:parameter optimisation-based hybrid models(OBH)and hybridisation of parameter optimisation-based and preprocessing-based hybridmodels(HOPH).Overall,this research supports the idea thatmeta-heuristic approaches precisely improveML techniques.It’s also one of the first efforts to comprehensively examine the efficiency of various meta-heuristic approaches(classified into four primary classes)hybridised with ML techniques.This study revealed that previous research applied swarm,evolutionary,physics,and hybrid metaheuristics with 77%,61%,12%,and 12%,respectively.Finally,there is still room for improving OBH and HOPH models by examining different data pre-processing techniques and metaheuristic algorithms.展开更多
This study compared the predictive performance and processing speed of an artificial neural network(ANN)and a hybrid of a numerical reservoir simulation(NRS)and artificial neural network(NRS-ANN)models in estimating t...This study compared the predictive performance and processing speed of an artificial neural network(ANN)and a hybrid of a numerical reservoir simulation(NRS)and artificial neural network(NRS-ANN)models in estimating the oil production rate of the ZH86 reservoir block under waterflood recovery.The historical input variables:reservoir pressure,reservoir pore volume containing hydrocarbons,reservoir pore volume containing water and reservoir water injection rate used as inputs for ANN models.To create the NRS-ANN hybrid models,314 data sets extracted from the NRS model,which included reservoir pressure,reservoir pore volume containing hy-drocarbons,reservoir pore volume containing water and reservoir water injection rate were used.The output of the models was the historical oil production rate(HOPR in m^(3) per day)recorded from the ZH86 reservoir block.Models were developed using MATLAB R2021a and trained with 25 models in three replicate conditions(2,4 and 6),each at 1000 epochs.A comparative analysis indicated that,for all 25 models,the ANN outperformed the NRS-ANN in terms of processing speed and prediction performance.ANN models achieved an average of R^(2) and MAE of 0.8433 and 8.0964 m^(3)/day values,respectively,while NRS-ANN hybrid models achieved an average of R^(2) and MAE of 0.7828 and 8.2484 m^(3)/day values,respectively.In addition,ANN models achieved a processing speed of 49 epochs/sec,32 epochs/sec,and 24 epochs/sec after 2,4,and 6 replicates,respectively.Whereas the NRS-ANN hybrid models achieved lower average processing speeds of 45 epochs/sec,23 epochs/sec and 20 epochs/sec.In addition,the ANN optimal model outperforms the NRS-ANN model in terms of both processing speed and accuracy.The ANN optimal model achieved a speed of 336.44 epochs/sec,compared to the NRS-ANN hybrid optimal model,which achieved a speed of 52.16 epochs/sec.The ANN optimal model achieved lower RMSE and MAE values of 7.9291 m^(3)/day and 5.3855 m^(3)/day in the validation dataset compared with the hybrid ANS optimal model,which achieved 13.6821 m^(3)/day and 9.2047 m^(3)/day,respectively.The study also showed that the ANN optimal model consistently achieved higher R^(2) values:0.9472,0.9284 and 0.9316 in the training,test and validation data sets.Whereas the NRS-ANN hybrid optimal yielded lower R^(2) values of 0.8030,0.8622 and 0.7776 for the training,testing and validation datasets.The study showed that ANN models are a more effective and reliable tool,as they balance both processing speed and accuracy in estimating the oil production rate of the ZH86 reservoir block under the waterflooding recovery method.展开更多
The groundwater potential map is an important tool for a sustainable water management and land use planning,particularly for agricultural countries like Vietnam.In this article,we proposed new machine learning ensembl...The groundwater potential map is an important tool for a sustainable water management and land use planning,particularly for agricultural countries like Vietnam.In this article,we proposed new machine learning ensemble techniques namely AdaBoost ensemble(ABLWL),Bagging ensemble(BLWL),Multi Boost ensemble(MBLWL),Rotation Forest ensemble(RFLWL)with Locally Weighted Learning(LWL)algorithm as a base classifier to build the groundwater potential map of Gia Lai province in Vietnam.For this study,eleven conditioning factors(aspect,altitude,curvature,slope,Stream Transport Index(STI),Topographic Wetness Index(TWI),soil,geology,river density,rainfall,land-use)and 134 wells yield data was used to create training(70%)and testing(30%)datasets for the development and validation of the models.Several statistical indices were used namely Positive Predictive Value(PPV),Negative Predictive Value(NPV),Sensitivity(SST),Specificity(SPF),Accuracy(ACC),Kappa,and Receiver Operating Characteristics(ROC)curve to validate and compare performance of models.Results show that performance of all the models is good to very good(AUC:0.75 to 0.829)but the ABLWL model with AUC=0.89 is the best.All the models applied in this study can support decision-makers to streamline the management of the groundwater and to develop economy not only of specific territories but also in other regions across the world with minor changes of the input parameters.展开更多
Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration(ET)is crucial for efficient water resource management,particularly in the face of climate change and increasing water scarcity.This study performs a bibliometric analysis of 3...Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration(ET)is crucial for efficient water resource management,particularly in the face of climate change and increasing water scarcity.This study performs a bibliometric analysis of 352 articles and a systematic review of 35 peer-reviewed papers,selected according to PRISMA guidelines,to evaluate the performance of Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks(HANNs)in ET estimation.The findings demonstrate that HANNs,particularly those combining Multilayer Perceptrons(MLPs),Recurrent Neural Networks(RNNs),and Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs),are highly effective in capturing the complex nonlinear relationships and tem-poral dependencies characteristic of hydrological processes.These hybrid models,often integrated with optimization algorithms and fuzzy logic frameworks,significantly improve the predictive accuracy and generalization capabilities of ET estimation.The growing adoption of advanced evaluation metrics,such as Kling-Gupta Efficiency(KGE)and Taylor Diagrams,highlights the increasing demand for more robust performance assessments beyond traditional methods.Despite the promising results,challenges remain,particularly regarding model interpretability,computational efficiency,and data scarcity.Future research should prioritize the integration of interpretability techniques,such as attention mechanisms,Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations(LIME),and feature importance analysis,to enhance model transparency and foster stakeholder trust.Additionally,improving HANN models’scalability and computational efficiency is crucial,especially for large-scale,real-world applications.Approaches such as transfer learning,parallel processing,and hyperparameter optimization will be essential in overcoming these challenges.This study underscores the transformative potential of HANN models for precise ET estimation,particularly in water-scarce and climate-vulnerable regions.By integrating CNNs for automatic feature extraction and leveraging hybrid architectures,HANNs offer considerable advantages for optimizing water management,particularly agriculture.Addressing challenges related to interpretability and scalability will be vital to ensuring the widespread deployment and operational success of HANNs in global water resource management.展开更多
Assessing the stability of slopes is one of the crucial tasks of geotechnical engineering for assessing and managing risks related to natural hazards,directly affecting safety and sustainable development.This study pr...Assessing the stability of slopes is one of the crucial tasks of geotechnical engineering for assessing and managing risks related to natural hazards,directly affecting safety and sustainable development.This study primarily focuses on developing robust and practical hybrid models to predict the slope stability status of circular failure mode.For this purpose,three robust models were developed using a database including 627 case histories of slope stability status.The models were developed using the random forest(RF),support vector machine(SVM),and extreme gradient boosting(XGB)techniques,employing 5-fold cross validation approach.To enhance the performance of models,this study employs Bayesian optimizer(BO)to fine-tuning their hyperparameters.The results indicate that the performance order of the three developed models is RF-BO>SVM-BO>XGB-BO.Furthermore,comparing the developed models with previous models,it was found that the RF-BO model can effectively determine the slope stability status with outstanding performance.This implies that the RF-BO model could serve as a dependable tool for project managers,assisting in the evaluation of slope stability during both the design and operational phases of projects,despite the inherent challenges in this domain.The results regarding the importance of influencing parameters indicate that cohesion,friction angle,and slope height exert the most significant impact on slope stability status.This suggests that concentrating on these parameters and employing the RF-BO model can effectively mitigate the severity of geohazards in the short-term and contribute to the attainment of long-term sustainable development objectives.展开更多
This study presented a hybrid model method based on proper orthogonal decomposition(POD) for flow field reconstructions and aerodynamic design optimization. The POD basis modes have better description performance in a...This study presented a hybrid model method based on proper orthogonal decomposition(POD) for flow field reconstructions and aerodynamic design optimization. The POD basis modes have better description performance in a system space compared to the widely used semi-empirical basis functions because they are obtained through singular value decomposition of the system.Instead of the widely used linear regression, nonlinear regression methods are used in the function response of the coefficients of POD basis modes. Moreover, an adaptive Latin hypercube design method with improved space filling and correlation based on a multi-objective optimization approach was employed to supply the necessary samples. Prior to design optimization, the response performance of POD-based hybrid models was first investigated and validated through flow reconstructions of both single-and multiple blade rows. Then, an inverse design was performed to approach a given spanwise flow turning distribution at the outlet of a turbine blade by changing the spanwise stagger angle, based on the hybrid model method. Finally, the span wise blade sweep of a transonic compressor rotor and the spanwise stagger angle of the stator blade of a single low-speed compressor stage were modified to reduce the flow losses with the constraints of mass flow rate, total pressure ratio, and outlet flow turning.The results are presented in detail, demonstrating the good response performance of POD-based hybrid models on missing data reconstructions and the effectiveness of POD-based hybrid model method in aerodynamic design optimization.展开更多
Time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is ...Time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is insufficient forecasting accuracy.The present study proposes a hybrid forecastingmethods to address this need.The proposed method includes three models.The first model is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)statistical model;the second model is a back propagation neural network(BPNN)with adaptive slope and momentum parameters;and the thirdmodel is a hybridization between ARIMA and BPNN(ARIMA/BPNN)and artificial neural networks and ARIMA(ARIMA/ANN)to gain the benefits of linear and nonlinearmodeling.The forecasting models proposed in this study are used to predict the indices of the consumer price index(CPI),and predict the expected number of cancer patients in the Ibb Province in Yemen.Statistical standard measures used to evaluate the proposed method include(i)mean square error,(ii)mean absolute error,(iii)root mean square error,and(iv)mean absolute percentage error.Based on the computational results,the improvement rate of forecasting the CPI dataset was 5%,71%,and 4%for ARIMA/BPNN model,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNN model respectively;while the result for cancer patients’dataset was 7%,200%,and 19%for ARIMA/BPNNmodel,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNNmodel respectively.Therefore,it is obvious that the proposed method reduced the randomness degree,and the alterations affected the time series with data non-linearity.The ARIMA/ANN model outperformed each of its components when it was applied separately in terms of increasing the accuracy of forecasting and decreasing the overall errors of forecasting.展开更多
In various fields,knowledge distillation(KD)techniques that combine vision transformers(ViTs)and convolutional neural networks(CNNs)as a hybrid teacher have shown remarkable results in classification.However,in the re...In various fields,knowledge distillation(KD)techniques that combine vision transformers(ViTs)and convolutional neural networks(CNNs)as a hybrid teacher have shown remarkable results in classification.However,in the realm of remote sensing images(RSIs),existing KD research studies are not only scarce but also lack competitiveness.This issue significantly impedes the deployment of the notable advantages of ViTs and CNNs.To tackle this,the authors introduce a novel hybrid‐model KD approach named HMKD‐Net,which comprises a CNN‐ViT ensemble teacher and a CNN student.Contrary to popular opinion,the authors posit that the sparsity in RSI data distribution limits the effectiveness and efficiency of hybrid‐model knowledge transfer.As a solution,a simple yet innovative method to handle variances during the KD phase is suggested,leading to substantial enhancements in the effectiveness and efficiency of hybrid knowledge transfer.The authors assessed the performance of HMKD‐Net on three RSI datasets.The findings indicate that HMKD‐Net significantly outperforms other cuttingedge methods while maintaining a significantly smaller size.Specifically,HMKD‐Net exceeds other KD‐based methods with a maximum accuracy improvement of 22.8%across various datasets.As ablation experiments indicated,HMKD‐Net has cut down on time expenses by about 80%in the KD process.This research study validates that the hybrid‐model KD technique can be more effective and efficient if the data distribution sparsity in RSIs is well handled.展开更多
Landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM)plays a crucial role in assessing geological risks.The current LSM techniques face a significant challenge in achieving accurate results due to uncertainties associated with region...Landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM)plays a crucial role in assessing geological risks.The current LSM techniques face a significant challenge in achieving accurate results due to uncertainties associated with regional-scale geotechnical parameters.To explore rainfall-induced LSM,this study proposes a hybrid model that combines the physically-based probabilistic model(PPM)with convolutional neural network(CNN).The PPM is capable of effectively capturing the spatial distribution of landslides by incorporating the probability of failure(POF)considering the slope stability mechanism under rainfall conditions.This significantly characterizes the variation of POF caused by parameter uncertainties.CNN was used as a binary classifier to capture the spatial and channel correlation between landslide conditioning factors and the probability of landslide occurrence.OpenCV image enhancement technique was utilized to extract non-landslide points based on the POF of landslides.The proposed model comprehensively considers physical mechanics when selecting non-landslide samples,effectively filtering out samples that do not adhere to physical principles and reduce the risk of overfitting.The results indicate that the proposed PPM-CNN hybrid model presents a higher prediction accuracy,with an area under the curve(AUC)value of 0.85 based on the landslide case of the Niangniangba area of Gansu Province,China compared with the individual CNN model(AUC=0.61)and the PPM(AUC=0.74).This model can also consider the statistical correlation and non-normal probability distributions of model parameters.These results offer practical guidance for future research on rainfall-induced LSM at the regional scale.展开更多
Traffic forecasting with high precision aids Intelligent Transport Systems(ITS)in formulating and optimizing traffic management strategies.The algorithms used for tuning the hyperparameters of the deep learning models...Traffic forecasting with high precision aids Intelligent Transport Systems(ITS)in formulating and optimizing traffic management strategies.The algorithms used for tuning the hyperparameters of the deep learning models often have accurate results at the expense of high computational complexity.To address this problem,this paper uses the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator(TPE)to tune the hyperparameters of the Long Short-term Memory(LSTM)deep learning framework.The Tree-structured Parzen Estimator(TPE)uses a probabilistic approach with an adaptive searching mechanism by classifying the objective function values into good and bad samples.This ensures fast convergence in tuning the hyperparameter values in the deep learning model for performing prediction while still maintaining a certain degree of accuracy.It also overcomes the problem of converging to local optima and avoids timeconsuming random search and,therefore,avoids high computational complexity in prediction accuracy.The proposed scheme first performs data smoothing and normalization on the input data,which is then fed to the input of the TPE for tuning the hyperparameters.The traffic data is then input to the LSTM model with tuned parameters to perform the traffic prediction.The three optimizers:Adaptive Moment Estimation(Adam),Root Mean Square Propagation(RMSProp),and Stochastic Gradient Descend with Momentum(SGDM)are also evaluated for accuracy prediction and the best optimizer is then chosen for final traffic prediction in TPE-LSTM model.Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of accuracy of prediction over the benchmark schemes.展开更多
An enzyme is a kind of protein with catalytic activity and long chain,and its structure and shape are determined by the hybridized state of atomic orbital.The fractal dimension(D_f)is closely related to the hybridizat...An enzyme is a kind of protein with catalytic activity and long chain,and its structure and shape are determined by the hybridized state of atomic orbital.The fractal dimension(D_f)is closely related to the hybridization,e.g.D_f=2ln2/ln[2(1+α/(1-α))]for the spa type, where a denotes the fraction of the s orbital in the hybridized molecular orbital.This relationship and the five fractal theorems introduced by the present paper play an important role in the investigations of the model of imitative enzyme.展开更多
Hybrid neural network models are effective in analyzing time-series data by combining the strengths of neural networks and differential equation models.Although most studies have focused on linear hybrid models,few ha...Hybrid neural network models are effective in analyzing time-series data by combining the strengths of neural networks and differential equation models.Although most studies have focused on linear hybrid models,few have examined nonlinear problems.This work explores the potential of a hybrid nonlinear epidemic neural network in predicting the correct infection function of an epidemic model.We design a novel loss function by combining bifurcation theory and mean-squared error loss to ensure the trainability of the hybrid model.Additionally,we identify unique existence conditions that support ordinary differential equations for estimating the correct infection function.Moreover,numerical experiments using the Runge-Kutta method confirm our proposed model's soundness both on our synthetic data and the real COVID-19 data.展开更多
In recent years,there has been a concerted effort to improve anomaly detection tech-niques,particularly in the context of high-dimensional,distributed clinical data.Analysing patient data within clinical settings reve...In recent years,there has been a concerted effort to improve anomaly detection tech-niques,particularly in the context of high-dimensional,distributed clinical data.Analysing patient data within clinical settings reveals a pronounced focus on refining diagnostic accuracy,personalising treatment plans,and optimising resource allocation to enhance clinical outcomes.Nonetheless,this domain faces unique challenges,such as irregular data collection,inconsistent data quality,and patient-specific structural variations.This paper proposed a novel hybrid approach that integrates heuristic and stochastic methods for anomaly detection in patient clinical data to address these challenges.The strategy combines HPO-based optimal Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise for clustering patient exercise data,facilitating efficient anomaly identification.Subsequently,a stochastic method based on the Interquartile Range filters unreliable data points,ensuring that medical tools and professionals receive only the most pertinent and accurate information.The primary objective of this study is to equip healthcare pro-fessionals and researchers with a robust tool for managing extensive,high-dimensional clinical datasets,enabling effective isolation and removal of aberrant data points.Furthermore,a sophisticated regression model has been developed using Automated Machine Learning(AutoML)to assess the impact of the ensemble abnormal pattern detection approach.Various statistical error estimation techniques validate the efficacy of the hybrid approach alongside AutoML.Experimental results show that implementing this innovative hybrid model on patient rehabilitation data leads to a notable enhance-ment in AutoML performance,with an average improvement of 0.041 in the R2 score,surpassing the effectiveness of traditional regression models.展开更多
Alcohol oxidation is a widely used green chemical reaction.The reaction process produces flammable and explosive hydrogen,so the design of the reactor must meet stringent safety requirements.Based on the limited exper...Alcohol oxidation is a widely used green chemical reaction.The reaction process produces flammable and explosive hydrogen,so the design of the reactor must meet stringent safety requirements.Based on the limited experimental data,utilizing the traditional numerical method of computational fluid dynamics(CFD)to simulate the gas-liquid two-phase flow reactor can mitigate the risk of danger under varying working conditions.However,the calculation process is highly time-consuming.Therefore,by integrating process simulation,computational fluid dynamics,and deep learning technologies,an intelligent hybrid chemical model based on machine learning was proposed to expedite CFD calculations,enhance the prediction of flow fields,conversion rates,and concentrations inside the reactor,and offer insights for designing and optimizing the reactor for the alcohol oxidation system.The results show that the hybrid model based on the long and short-term memory neural network achieves 99.8%accuracy in conversion rate prediction and 99.9%accuracy in product concentration prediction.Through validation,the hybrid model is accelerated by about 360 times compared with instrumental analysis in conversion rate prediction and about 45 times compared with CFD calculation in concentration distribution prediction.This hybrid model can quickly predict the conversion rate and product concentration distribution in the gas-liquid two-phase flow reactor and provide a model reference for fast prediction and accurate control in the actual chemical production process.展开更多
Accurate prediction of strip width is a key factor related to the quality of hot rolling manufacture.Firstly,based on strip width formation mechanism model within strip rolling process,an improved width mechanism calc...Accurate prediction of strip width is a key factor related to the quality of hot rolling manufacture.Firstly,based on strip width formation mechanism model within strip rolling process,an improved width mechanism calculation model is delineated for the optimization of process parameters via the particle swarm optimization algorithm.Subsequently,a hybrid strip width prediction model is proposed by effectively combining the respective advantages of the improved mechanism model and the data-driven model.In acknowledgment of prerequisite for positive error in strip width prediction,an adaptive width error compensation algorithm is proposed.Finally,comparative simulation experiments are designed on the actual rolling dataset after completing data cleaning and feature engineering.The experimental results show that the hybrid prediction model proposed has superior precision and robustness compared with the improved mechanism model and the other eight common data-driven models and satisfies the needs of practical applications.Moreover,the hybrid model can realize the complementary advantages of the mechanism model and the data-driven model,effectively alleviating the problems of difficult to improve the accuracy of the mechanism model and poor interpretability of the data-driven model,which bears significant practical implications for the research of strip width control.展开更多
This study addresses gaps in aftershock prediction research by proposing an interpretable hybrid machine learning model that leverages multi-source data.The model overcomes challenges related to the selection of influ...This study addresses gaps in aftershock prediction research by proposing an interpretable hybrid machine learning model that leverages multi-source data.The model overcomes challenges related to the selection of influencing factors,model types,prediction result visualization,and decision mechanism interpretability.It integrates mainshock factors,geological features,site characteristics,and terrain conditions using geospatial information system(GIS)technology.By employing the stacking algorithm to optimize and combine XGBoost and LightGBM models,the proposed model significantly improves the prediction performance.Visualization through aftershock hazard mapping offers a robust tool for aftershock warning.The Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)model is used to explain the decision-making process from both global and local perspectives.Results show that,compared to the optimized XGBoost-CMA_ES and LightGBM-CMA_ES hybrid models,the stacking model achieves area under the curve(AUC)increases of 7.71%and 5.72% on the test set,respectively,with a maximum prediction accuracy of 0.9344.The hazard zoning map identifies high-risk areas mainly around fault lines and near the epicenter.As hazard levels rise,the proportion and density of aftershocks in these areas increase.The SHAP model results highlight the distance to fault as the most critical factor.The study integrates local explanations with on-site investigations,effectively visualizing the contributions of different factors to aftershocks.This research provides new tools and methods for enhancing aftershock warning and response.展开更多
Sea surface temperature(SST)is an important ocean variable affecting climate change.It plays an important role in the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere,and it also has an effect on the transport of hea...Sea surface temperature(SST)is an important ocean variable affecting climate change.It plays an important role in the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere,and it also has an effect on the transport of heat,freshwater,and carbon.Therefore,accurate SST prediction is necessary for understanding climate change and protecting ocean ecosystems.In this study,we proposed a hybrid model to predict SST in the tropical Pacific Ocean based on two single deep-learning models.Results indicate that the proposed hybrid model shows superior prediction accuracy at all lead times compared to the single model.Specifically,during El Niño periods,the root mean square error,mean absolute error,and Pearson correlation coefficient of the hybrid model forecasts were approximately 0.54℃,0.40℃,and 0.98,respectively,while during La Niña periods,these metrics were 0.55℃,0.39℃,and 0.98,respectively.Notably,the hybrid model was able to capture the spatial distribution of SSTs during the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events more accurately relative to a single model.Moreover,the prediction results of the hybrid model in different ocean regions exhibited lower prediction errors and higher correlations.The ablation experiments showed that sea surface wind(SSW)had different effects on SST at different times.By combining SST and SSW data,the model can make more-accurate predictions under different climatic conditions.The proposed hybrid model is able to predict SSTs quickly and accurately with better robustness during ENSO.展开更多
Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environment...Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environmental footprint by reducing the risks of disruption,downtime,and waste.However,with increasingly complex energy consumption patterns driven by renewable energy integration and changing consumer behaviors,no single approach has emerged as universally effective.In response,this research presents a hybrid modeling framework that combines the strengths of Random Forest(RF)and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)models,enhanced with advanced feature selection—Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevancy and Maximum Synergy(MRMRMS)method—to produce a sparse model.Additionally,the residual patterns are analyzed to enhance forecast accuracy.High-resolution weather data from Weather Underground and historical energy consumption data from PJM for Duke Energy Ohio and Kentucky(DEO&K)are used in this application.This methodology,termed SP-RF-ARIMA,is evaluated against existing approaches;it demonstrates more than 40%reduction in mean absolute error and root mean square error compared to the second-best method.展开更多
Short rotation plantation forestry(SRF)is being widely adopted to increase wood production,in order to meet global demand for wood products.However,to ensure maximum gains from SRF,optimised management regimes need to...Short rotation plantation forestry(SRF)is being widely adopted to increase wood production,in order to meet global demand for wood products.However,to ensure maximum gains from SRF,optimised management regimes need to be established by integrating robust predictions and an understanding of mechanisms underlying tree growth.Hybrid ecophysiological models,such as potentially useable light sum equation(PULSE)models,are useful tools requiring minimal input data that meet the requirements of SRF.PULSE models have been tested and calibrated for different evergreen conifers and broadleaves at both juvenile and mature stages of tree growth with coarse soil and climate data.Therefore,it is prudent to question:can adding detailed soil and climatic data reduce errors in this type of model?In addition,PULSE techniques have not been used to model deciduous species,which are a challenge for ecophysiological models due to their phenology.This study developed a PULSE model for a clonal Populus tomentosa plantation in northern China using detailed edaphic and climatic data.The results showed high precision and low bias in height(m)and basal area(m^(2)·ha^(-1))predictions.While detailed edaphoclimatic data produce highly precise predictions and a good mechanistic understanding,the study suggested that local climatic data could also be employed.The study showed that PULSE modelling in combination with coarse level of edaphic and local climate data resulted in reasonably precise tree growth prediction and minimal bias.展开更多
基金This paper’s logical organisation and content quality have been enhanced,so the authors thank anonymous reviewers and journal editors for assistance.
文摘Forecasting river flow is crucial for optimal planning,management,and sustainability using freshwater resources.Many machine learning(ML)approaches have been enhanced to improve streamflow prediction.Hybrid techniques have been viewed as a viable method for enhancing the accuracy of univariate streamflow estimation when compared to standalone approaches.Current researchers have also emphasised using hybrid models to improve forecast accuracy.Accordingly,this paper conducts an updated literature review of applications of hybrid models in estimating streamflow over the last five years,summarising data preprocessing,univariate machine learning modelling strategy,advantages and disadvantages of standalone ML techniques,hybrid models,and performance metrics.This study focuses on two types of hybrid models:parameter optimisation-based hybrid models(OBH)and hybridisation of parameter optimisation-based and preprocessing-based hybridmodels(HOPH).Overall,this research supports the idea thatmeta-heuristic approaches precisely improveML techniques.It’s also one of the first efforts to comprehensively examine the efficiency of various meta-heuristic approaches(classified into four primary classes)hybridised with ML techniques.This study revealed that previous research applied swarm,evolutionary,physics,and hybrid metaheuristics with 77%,61%,12%,and 12%,respectively.Finally,there is still room for improving OBH and HOPH models by examining different data pre-processing techniques and metaheuristic algorithms.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China grants no.41972326 and 51774258.
文摘This study compared the predictive performance and processing speed of an artificial neural network(ANN)and a hybrid of a numerical reservoir simulation(NRS)and artificial neural network(NRS-ANN)models in estimating the oil production rate of the ZH86 reservoir block under waterflood recovery.The historical input variables:reservoir pressure,reservoir pore volume containing hydrocarbons,reservoir pore volume containing water and reservoir water injection rate used as inputs for ANN models.To create the NRS-ANN hybrid models,314 data sets extracted from the NRS model,which included reservoir pressure,reservoir pore volume containing hy-drocarbons,reservoir pore volume containing water and reservoir water injection rate were used.The output of the models was the historical oil production rate(HOPR in m^(3) per day)recorded from the ZH86 reservoir block.Models were developed using MATLAB R2021a and trained with 25 models in three replicate conditions(2,4 and 6),each at 1000 epochs.A comparative analysis indicated that,for all 25 models,the ANN outperformed the NRS-ANN in terms of processing speed and prediction performance.ANN models achieved an average of R^(2) and MAE of 0.8433 and 8.0964 m^(3)/day values,respectively,while NRS-ANN hybrid models achieved an average of R^(2) and MAE of 0.7828 and 8.2484 m^(3)/day values,respectively.In addition,ANN models achieved a processing speed of 49 epochs/sec,32 epochs/sec,and 24 epochs/sec after 2,4,and 6 replicates,respectively.Whereas the NRS-ANN hybrid models achieved lower average processing speeds of 45 epochs/sec,23 epochs/sec and 20 epochs/sec.In addition,the ANN optimal model outperforms the NRS-ANN model in terms of both processing speed and accuracy.The ANN optimal model achieved a speed of 336.44 epochs/sec,compared to the NRS-ANN hybrid optimal model,which achieved a speed of 52.16 epochs/sec.The ANN optimal model achieved lower RMSE and MAE values of 7.9291 m^(3)/day and 5.3855 m^(3)/day in the validation dataset compared with the hybrid ANS optimal model,which achieved 13.6821 m^(3)/day and 9.2047 m^(3)/day,respectively.The study also showed that the ANN optimal model consistently achieved higher R^(2) values:0.9472,0.9284 and 0.9316 in the training,test and validation data sets.Whereas the NRS-ANN hybrid optimal yielded lower R^(2) values of 0.8030,0.8622 and 0.7776 for the training,testing and validation datasets.The study showed that ANN models are a more effective and reliable tool,as they balance both processing speed and accuracy in estimating the oil production rate of the ZH86 reservoir block under the waterflooding recovery method.
基金funded by Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development(NAFOSTED)under grant number 105.08-2019.03.
文摘The groundwater potential map is an important tool for a sustainable water management and land use planning,particularly for agricultural countries like Vietnam.In this article,we proposed new machine learning ensemble techniques namely AdaBoost ensemble(ABLWL),Bagging ensemble(BLWL),Multi Boost ensemble(MBLWL),Rotation Forest ensemble(RFLWL)with Locally Weighted Learning(LWL)algorithm as a base classifier to build the groundwater potential map of Gia Lai province in Vietnam.For this study,eleven conditioning factors(aspect,altitude,curvature,slope,Stream Transport Index(STI),Topographic Wetness Index(TWI),soil,geology,river density,rainfall,land-use)and 134 wells yield data was used to create training(70%)and testing(30%)datasets for the development and validation of the models.Several statistical indices were used namely Positive Predictive Value(PPV),Negative Predictive Value(NPV),Sensitivity(SST),Specificity(SPF),Accuracy(ACC),Kappa,and Receiver Operating Characteristics(ROC)curve to validate and compare performance of models.Results show that performance of all the models is good to very good(AUC:0.75 to 0.829)but the ABLWL model with AUC=0.89 is the best.All the models applied in this study can support decision-makers to streamline the management of the groundwater and to develop economy not only of specific territories but also in other regions across the world with minor changes of the input parameters.
文摘Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration(ET)is crucial for efficient water resource management,particularly in the face of climate change and increasing water scarcity.This study performs a bibliometric analysis of 352 articles and a systematic review of 35 peer-reviewed papers,selected according to PRISMA guidelines,to evaluate the performance of Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks(HANNs)in ET estimation.The findings demonstrate that HANNs,particularly those combining Multilayer Perceptrons(MLPs),Recurrent Neural Networks(RNNs),and Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs),are highly effective in capturing the complex nonlinear relationships and tem-poral dependencies characteristic of hydrological processes.These hybrid models,often integrated with optimization algorithms and fuzzy logic frameworks,significantly improve the predictive accuracy and generalization capabilities of ET estimation.The growing adoption of advanced evaluation metrics,such as Kling-Gupta Efficiency(KGE)and Taylor Diagrams,highlights the increasing demand for more robust performance assessments beyond traditional methods.Despite the promising results,challenges remain,particularly regarding model interpretability,computational efficiency,and data scarcity.Future research should prioritize the integration of interpretability techniques,such as attention mechanisms,Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations(LIME),and feature importance analysis,to enhance model transparency and foster stakeholder trust.Additionally,improving HANN models’scalability and computational efficiency is crucial,especially for large-scale,real-world applications.Approaches such as transfer learning,parallel processing,and hyperparameter optimization will be essential in overcoming these challenges.This study underscores the transformative potential of HANN models for precise ET estimation,particularly in water-scarce and climate-vulnerable regions.By integrating CNNs for automatic feature extraction and leveraging hybrid architectures,HANNs offer considerable advantages for optimizing water management,particularly agriculture.Addressing challenges related to interpretability and scalability will be vital to ensuring the widespread deployment and operational success of HANNs in global water resource management.
文摘Assessing the stability of slopes is one of the crucial tasks of geotechnical engineering for assessing and managing risks related to natural hazards,directly affecting safety and sustainable development.This study primarily focuses on developing robust and practical hybrid models to predict the slope stability status of circular failure mode.For this purpose,three robust models were developed using a database including 627 case histories of slope stability status.The models were developed using the random forest(RF),support vector machine(SVM),and extreme gradient boosting(XGB)techniques,employing 5-fold cross validation approach.To enhance the performance of models,this study employs Bayesian optimizer(BO)to fine-tuning their hyperparameters.The results indicate that the performance order of the three developed models is RF-BO>SVM-BO>XGB-BO.Furthermore,comparing the developed models with previous models,it was found that the RF-BO model can effectively determine the slope stability status with outstanding performance.This implies that the RF-BO model could serve as a dependable tool for project managers,assisting in the evaluation of slope stability during both the design and operational phases of projects,despite the inherent challenges in this domain.The results regarding the importance of influencing parameters indicate that cohesion,friction angle,and slope height exert the most significant impact on slope stability status.This suggests that concentrating on these parameters and employing the RF-BO model can effectively mitigate the severity of geohazards in the short-term and contribute to the attainment of long-term sustainable development objectives.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51676003,51206003 and 51376009)
文摘This study presented a hybrid model method based on proper orthogonal decomposition(POD) for flow field reconstructions and aerodynamic design optimization. The POD basis modes have better description performance in a system space compared to the widely used semi-empirical basis functions because they are obtained through singular value decomposition of the system.Instead of the widely used linear regression, nonlinear regression methods are used in the function response of the coefficients of POD basis modes. Moreover, an adaptive Latin hypercube design method with improved space filling and correlation based on a multi-objective optimization approach was employed to supply the necessary samples. Prior to design optimization, the response performance of POD-based hybrid models was first investigated and validated through flow reconstructions of both single-and multiple blade rows. Then, an inverse design was performed to approach a given spanwise flow turning distribution at the outlet of a turbine blade by changing the spanwise stagger angle, based on the hybrid model method. Finally, the span wise blade sweep of a transonic compressor rotor and the spanwise stagger angle of the stator blade of a single low-speed compressor stage were modified to reduce the flow losses with the constraints of mass flow rate, total pressure ratio, and outlet flow turning.The results are presented in detail, demonstrating the good response performance of POD-based hybrid models on missing data reconstructions and the effectiveness of POD-based hybrid model method in aerodynamic design optimization.
基金Researchers would like to thank the Deanship of Scientific Research,Qassim University for funding the publication of this project.
文摘Time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is insufficient forecasting accuracy.The present study proposes a hybrid forecastingmethods to address this need.The proposed method includes three models.The first model is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)statistical model;the second model is a back propagation neural network(BPNN)with adaptive slope and momentum parameters;and the thirdmodel is a hybridization between ARIMA and BPNN(ARIMA/BPNN)and artificial neural networks and ARIMA(ARIMA/ANN)to gain the benefits of linear and nonlinearmodeling.The forecasting models proposed in this study are used to predict the indices of the consumer price index(CPI),and predict the expected number of cancer patients in the Ibb Province in Yemen.Statistical standard measures used to evaluate the proposed method include(i)mean square error,(ii)mean absolute error,(iii)root mean square error,and(iv)mean absolute percentage error.Based on the computational results,the improvement rate of forecasting the CPI dataset was 5%,71%,and 4%for ARIMA/BPNN model,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNN model respectively;while the result for cancer patients’dataset was 7%,200%,and 19%for ARIMA/BPNNmodel,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNNmodel respectively.Therefore,it is obvious that the proposed method reduced the randomness degree,and the alterations affected the time series with data non-linearity.The ARIMA/ANN model outperformed each of its components when it was applied separately in terms of increasing the accuracy of forecasting and decreasing the overall errors of forecasting.
基金Hunan University of Arts and Science,Grant/Award Numbers:JGYB2302Geography Subject[2022]351。
文摘In various fields,knowledge distillation(KD)techniques that combine vision transformers(ViTs)and convolutional neural networks(CNNs)as a hybrid teacher have shown remarkable results in classification.However,in the realm of remote sensing images(RSIs),existing KD research studies are not only scarce but also lack competitiveness.This issue significantly impedes the deployment of the notable advantages of ViTs and CNNs.To tackle this,the authors introduce a novel hybrid‐model KD approach named HMKD‐Net,which comprises a CNN‐ViT ensemble teacher and a CNN student.Contrary to popular opinion,the authors posit that the sparsity in RSI data distribution limits the effectiveness and efficiency of hybrid‐model knowledge transfer.As a solution,a simple yet innovative method to handle variances during the KD phase is suggested,leading to substantial enhancements in the effectiveness and efficiency of hybrid knowledge transfer.The authors assessed the performance of HMKD‐Net on three RSI datasets.The findings indicate that HMKD‐Net significantly outperforms other cuttingedge methods while maintaining a significantly smaller size.Specifically,HMKD‐Net exceeds other KD‐based methods with a maximum accuracy improvement of 22.8%across various datasets.As ablation experiments indicated,HMKD‐Net has cut down on time expenses by about 80%in the KD process.This research study validates that the hybrid‐model KD technique can be more effective and efficient if the data distribution sparsity in RSIs is well handled.
基金funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U22A20594,52079045)Hong-Zhi Cui acknowledges the financial support of the China Scholarship Council(Grant No.CSC:202206710014)for his research at Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya,Barcelona.
文摘Landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM)plays a crucial role in assessing geological risks.The current LSM techniques face a significant challenge in achieving accurate results due to uncertainties associated with regional-scale geotechnical parameters.To explore rainfall-induced LSM,this study proposes a hybrid model that combines the physically-based probabilistic model(PPM)with convolutional neural network(CNN).The PPM is capable of effectively capturing the spatial distribution of landslides by incorporating the probability of failure(POF)considering the slope stability mechanism under rainfall conditions.This significantly characterizes the variation of POF caused by parameter uncertainties.CNN was used as a binary classifier to capture the spatial and channel correlation between landslide conditioning factors and the probability of landslide occurrence.OpenCV image enhancement technique was utilized to extract non-landslide points based on the POF of landslides.The proposed model comprehensively considers physical mechanics when selecting non-landslide samples,effectively filtering out samples that do not adhere to physical principles and reduce the risk of overfitting.The results indicate that the proposed PPM-CNN hybrid model presents a higher prediction accuracy,with an area under the curve(AUC)value of 0.85 based on the landslide case of the Niangniangba area of Gansu Province,China compared with the individual CNN model(AUC=0.61)and the PPM(AUC=0.74).This model can also consider the statistical correlation and non-normal probability distributions of model parameters.These results offer practical guidance for future research on rainfall-induced LSM at the regional scale.
文摘Traffic forecasting with high precision aids Intelligent Transport Systems(ITS)in formulating and optimizing traffic management strategies.The algorithms used for tuning the hyperparameters of the deep learning models often have accurate results at the expense of high computational complexity.To address this problem,this paper uses the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator(TPE)to tune the hyperparameters of the Long Short-term Memory(LSTM)deep learning framework.The Tree-structured Parzen Estimator(TPE)uses a probabilistic approach with an adaptive searching mechanism by classifying the objective function values into good and bad samples.This ensures fast convergence in tuning the hyperparameter values in the deep learning model for performing prediction while still maintaining a certain degree of accuracy.It also overcomes the problem of converging to local optima and avoids timeconsuming random search and,therefore,avoids high computational complexity in prediction accuracy.The proposed scheme first performs data smoothing and normalization on the input data,which is then fed to the input of the TPE for tuning the hyperparameters.The traffic data is then input to the LSTM model with tuned parameters to perform the traffic prediction.The three optimizers:Adaptive Moment Estimation(Adam),Root Mean Square Propagation(RMSProp),and Stochastic Gradient Descend with Momentum(SGDM)are also evaluated for accuracy prediction and the best optimizer is then chosen for final traffic prediction in TPE-LSTM model.Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of accuracy of prediction over the benchmark schemes.
文摘An enzyme is a kind of protein with catalytic activity and long chain,and its structure and shape are determined by the hybridized state of atomic orbital.The fractal dimension(D_f)is closely related to the hybridization,e.g.D_f=2ln2/ln[2(1+α/(1-α))]for the spa type, where a denotes the fraction of the s orbital in the hybridized molecular orbital.This relationship and the five fractal theorems introduced by the present paper play an important role in the investigations of the model of imitative enzyme.
基金This work was funded by the GDAS'Project of Science and Technology Development(2021GDASYL-20210103089)Postdoctoral Research Foundation of China(2021M690747)+4 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(12001139,61877049 and 11991023)Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou(202007040007)GDAS'Project of Science and Technology Development(2019GDASYL-0502007)Guangdong Provincial Rural Revitalization Strategy Special Fund Project(2019KJ138)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2019A1515110503).
文摘Hybrid neural network models are effective in analyzing time-series data by combining the strengths of neural networks and differential equation models.Although most studies have focused on linear hybrid models,few have examined nonlinear problems.This work explores the potential of a hybrid nonlinear epidemic neural network in predicting the correct infection function of an epidemic model.We design a novel loss function by combining bifurcation theory and mean-squared error loss to ensure the trainability of the hybrid model.Additionally,we identify unique existence conditions that support ordinary differential equations for estimating the correct infection function.Moreover,numerical experiments using the Runge-Kutta method confirm our proposed model's soundness both on our synthetic data and the real COVID-19 data.
文摘In recent years,there has been a concerted effort to improve anomaly detection tech-niques,particularly in the context of high-dimensional,distributed clinical data.Analysing patient data within clinical settings reveals a pronounced focus on refining diagnostic accuracy,personalising treatment plans,and optimising resource allocation to enhance clinical outcomes.Nonetheless,this domain faces unique challenges,such as irregular data collection,inconsistent data quality,and patient-specific structural variations.This paper proposed a novel hybrid approach that integrates heuristic and stochastic methods for anomaly detection in patient clinical data to address these challenges.The strategy combines HPO-based optimal Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise for clustering patient exercise data,facilitating efficient anomaly identification.Subsequently,a stochastic method based on the Interquartile Range filters unreliable data points,ensuring that medical tools and professionals receive only the most pertinent and accurate information.The primary objective of this study is to equip healthcare pro-fessionals and researchers with a robust tool for managing extensive,high-dimensional clinical datasets,enabling effective isolation and removal of aberrant data points.Furthermore,a sophisticated regression model has been developed using Automated Machine Learning(AutoML)to assess the impact of the ensemble abnormal pattern detection approach.Various statistical error estimation techniques validate the efficacy of the hybrid approach alongside AutoML.Experimental results show that implementing this innovative hybrid model on patient rehabilitation data leads to a notable enhance-ment in AutoML performance,with an average improvement of 0.041 in the R2 score,surpassing the effectiveness of traditional regression models.
基金the support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(22478429)the Special Project Fund of Taishan-Scholars(tsqn202408101)+3 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(ZR2023YQ009)CNPC Innovation Found(2024DQ02-0504)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,Ocean University of China(202364004)the State Key Laboratory of Heavy Oil Processing(SKLHOP202403003)。
文摘Alcohol oxidation is a widely used green chemical reaction.The reaction process produces flammable and explosive hydrogen,so the design of the reactor must meet stringent safety requirements.Based on the limited experimental data,utilizing the traditional numerical method of computational fluid dynamics(CFD)to simulate the gas-liquid two-phase flow reactor can mitigate the risk of danger under varying working conditions.However,the calculation process is highly time-consuming.Therefore,by integrating process simulation,computational fluid dynamics,and deep learning technologies,an intelligent hybrid chemical model based on machine learning was proposed to expedite CFD calculations,enhance the prediction of flow fields,conversion rates,and concentrations inside the reactor,and offer insights for designing and optimizing the reactor for the alcohol oxidation system.The results show that the hybrid model based on the long and short-term memory neural network achieves 99.8%accuracy in conversion rate prediction and 99.9%accuracy in product concentration prediction.Through validation,the hybrid model is accelerated by about 360 times compared with instrumental analysis in conversion rate prediction and about 45 times compared with CFD calculation in concentration distribution prediction.This hybrid model can quickly predict the conversion rate and product concentration distribution in the gas-liquid two-phase flow reactor and provide a model reference for fast prediction and accurate control in the actual chemical production process.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62273234)Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi(Program No.2022GY-306)Technology Innovation Leading Program of Shaanxi(Program No.2022QFY01-16).
文摘Accurate prediction of strip width is a key factor related to the quality of hot rolling manufacture.Firstly,based on strip width formation mechanism model within strip rolling process,an improved width mechanism calculation model is delineated for the optimization of process parameters via the particle swarm optimization algorithm.Subsequently,a hybrid strip width prediction model is proposed by effectively combining the respective advantages of the improved mechanism model and the data-driven model.In acknowledgment of prerequisite for positive error in strip width prediction,an adaptive width error compensation algorithm is proposed.Finally,comparative simulation experiments are designed on the actual rolling dataset after completing data cleaning and feature engineering.The experimental results show that the hybrid prediction model proposed has superior precision and robustness compared with the improved mechanism model and the other eight common data-driven models and satisfies the needs of practical applications.Moreover,the hybrid model can realize the complementary advantages of the mechanism model and the data-driven model,effectively alleviating the problems of difficult to improve the accuracy of the mechanism model and poor interpretability of the data-driven model,which bears significant practical implications for the research of strip width control.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3007203).
文摘This study addresses gaps in aftershock prediction research by proposing an interpretable hybrid machine learning model that leverages multi-source data.The model overcomes challenges related to the selection of influencing factors,model types,prediction result visualization,and decision mechanism interpretability.It integrates mainshock factors,geological features,site characteristics,and terrain conditions using geospatial information system(GIS)technology.By employing the stacking algorithm to optimize and combine XGBoost and LightGBM models,the proposed model significantly improves the prediction performance.Visualization through aftershock hazard mapping offers a robust tool for aftershock warning.The Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)model is used to explain the decision-making process from both global and local perspectives.Results show that,compared to the optimized XGBoost-CMA_ES and LightGBM-CMA_ES hybrid models,the stacking model achieves area under the curve(AUC)increases of 7.71%and 5.72% on the test set,respectively,with a maximum prediction accuracy of 0.9344.The hazard zoning map identifies high-risk areas mainly around fault lines and near the epicenter.As hazard levels rise,the proportion and density of aftershocks in these areas increase.The SHAP model results highlight the distance to fault as the most critical factor.The study integrates local explanations with on-site investigations,effectively visualizing the contributions of different factors to aftershocks.This research provides new tools and methods for enhancing aftershock warning and response.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42476024,42176010)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFF0801400)。
文摘Sea surface temperature(SST)is an important ocean variable affecting climate change.It plays an important role in the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere,and it also has an effect on the transport of heat,freshwater,and carbon.Therefore,accurate SST prediction is necessary for understanding climate change and protecting ocean ecosystems.In this study,we proposed a hybrid model to predict SST in the tropical Pacific Ocean based on two single deep-learning models.Results indicate that the proposed hybrid model shows superior prediction accuracy at all lead times compared to the single model.Specifically,during El Niño periods,the root mean square error,mean absolute error,and Pearson correlation coefficient of the hybrid model forecasts were approximately 0.54℃,0.40℃,and 0.98,respectively,while during La Niña periods,these metrics were 0.55℃,0.39℃,and 0.98,respectively.Notably,the hybrid model was able to capture the spatial distribution of SSTs during the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events more accurately relative to a single model.Moreover,the prediction results of the hybrid model in different ocean regions exhibited lower prediction errors and higher correlations.The ablation experiments showed that sea surface wind(SSW)had different effects on SST at different times.By combining SST and SSW data,the model can make more-accurate predictions under different climatic conditions.The proposed hybrid model is able to predict SSTs quickly and accurately with better robustness during ENSO.
基金supported by the Startup Grant(PG18929)awarded to F.Shokoohi.
文摘Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environmental footprint by reducing the risks of disruption,downtime,and waste.However,with increasingly complex energy consumption patterns driven by renewable energy integration and changing consumer behaviors,no single approach has emerged as universally effective.In response,this research presents a hybrid modeling framework that combines the strengths of Random Forest(RF)and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)models,enhanced with advanced feature selection—Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevancy and Maximum Synergy(MRMRMS)method—to produce a sparse model.Additionally,the residual patterns are analyzed to enhance forecast accuracy.High-resolution weather data from Weather Underground and historical energy consumption data from PJM for Duke Energy Ohio and Kentucky(DEO&K)are used in this application.This methodology,termed SP-RF-ARIMA,is evaluated against existing approaches;it demonstrates more than 40%reduction in mean absolute error and root mean square error compared to the second-best method.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2021YFD2201203)the 5·5 Engineering Research&Innovation Team Project of Beijing Forestry University(No.BLRC2023C05)the Key Research and Development Program of Shandong Province(No.2021SFGC02050102)。
文摘Short rotation plantation forestry(SRF)is being widely adopted to increase wood production,in order to meet global demand for wood products.However,to ensure maximum gains from SRF,optimised management regimes need to be established by integrating robust predictions and an understanding of mechanisms underlying tree growth.Hybrid ecophysiological models,such as potentially useable light sum equation(PULSE)models,are useful tools requiring minimal input data that meet the requirements of SRF.PULSE models have been tested and calibrated for different evergreen conifers and broadleaves at both juvenile and mature stages of tree growth with coarse soil and climate data.Therefore,it is prudent to question:can adding detailed soil and climatic data reduce errors in this type of model?In addition,PULSE techniques have not been used to model deciduous species,which are a challenge for ecophysiological models due to their phenology.This study developed a PULSE model for a clonal Populus tomentosa plantation in northern China using detailed edaphic and climatic data.The results showed high precision and low bias in height(m)and basal area(m^(2)·ha^(-1))predictions.While detailed edaphoclimatic data produce highly precise predictions and a good mechanistic understanding,the study suggested that local climatic data could also be employed.The study showed that PULSE modelling in combination with coarse level of edaphic and local climate data resulted in reasonably precise tree growth prediction and minimal bias.
