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基于Holt-Winters与Erlang-C公式融合的热线接通率预测模型
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作者 王玉静 《山东通信技术》 2026年第1期38-42,共5页
提出一种热线接通率预测框架模型,通过融合Holt-Winters三重指数平滑时间序列算法和Erlang-C排队论公式,实现对客服中心热线服务接通率指标的精准预测。融合预测模型首先利用Holt-Winters算法进行时间序列分析与话务量预测;然后引入Erla... 提出一种热线接通率预测框架模型,通过融合Holt-Winters三重指数平滑时间序列算法和Erlang-C排队论公式,实现对客服中心热线服务接通率指标的精准预测。融合预测模型首先利用Holt-Winters算法进行时间序列分析与话务量预测;然后引入Erlang-C排队模型,基于预测话务量与关键参数转化为接通率指标预测,并建立动态参数修正机制,进行模型调优。真实运营数据验证,模型的预测准确率在95%以上,为客服中心的资源规划和动态调度提供了有效的决策支持。 展开更多
关键词 热线接通率 holt-winters Erlang-C公式 时间序列 融合模型
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基于灰色GM(1,1),ARIMA及Holt-Winters模型的延吉市肺结核发病率短期预测研究 被引量:3
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作者 高威 文韬 +3 位作者 王铮 李医华 翟铁民 崔洪哲 《中国卫生统计》 北大核心 2025年第2期263-266,共4页
目的 采用灰色预测模型(grey model, GM)、自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model, ARIMA)和Holt-Winters模型对延吉市肺结核发病情况进行短期预测,为肺结核防控提供理论依据。方法 对2012—2022年延吉市... 目的 采用灰色预测模型(grey model, GM)、自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model, ARIMA)和Holt-Winters模型对延吉市肺结核发病情况进行短期预测,为肺结核防控提供理论依据。方法 对2012—2022年延吉市肺结核发病数据进行统计,建立GM(1,1)模型,ARIMA模型和Holt-Winters模型进行短期预测,评价模型预测效果。结果 GM(1,1)模型和ARIMA模型预测结果显示,2023—2025年延吉市肺结核发病率逐渐下降。Holt-Winters模型的残差平方和(residual sum of squares, RSS)为940,均方根误差(root mean squared error, RMSE)为12.52,平均绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error, MAPE)为72.33%,其模型预测效果优于ARIMA乘积季节性模型。结论 三种预测模型在一定程度上均能对肺结核发病率进行预测,其中,Holt-Winters模型对延吉市肺结核发病趋势的预测更准确。 展开更多
关键词 肺结核 发病率 GM(1 1)模型 ARIMA模型 holt-winters模型
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基于Holt-Winters的锂离子电池容量衰退预测
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作者 吴伟丽 卢双双 李磊 《太阳能学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期309-318,共10页
针对目前电池容量长期衰退趋势预测方法精度低、跟踪效果差的问题,提出一种基于序列分解和三次指数平滑的电池容量预测方法,实现电池容量快速下降阶段退化趋势的有效跟踪。对于具有容量回升现象的电池容量序列首先采用自适应白噪声完备... 针对目前电池容量长期衰退趋势预测方法精度低、跟踪效果差的问题,提出一种基于序列分解和三次指数平滑的电池容量预测方法,实现电池容量快速下降阶段退化趋势的有效跟踪。对于具有容量回升现象的电池容量序列首先采用自适应白噪声完备集成经验模态分解(CEEMDAN)将其分解为波动分量和趋势分量,再对各分量分别搭建霍尔特-温特斯(HoltWinters)季节性、线性模型进行预测,最后将预测结果叠加实现容量退化趋势预测;对容量回升现象较弱的容量序列直接搭建Holt-Winters无季节性模型进行预测。采用多种不同电池退化数据集对算法性能进行验证,结果表明所提方法的鲁棒性良好且预测精度有较大提升,可为锂离子电池容量的退化趋势预测提供技术参考。 展开更多
关键词 锂离子电池 容量预测 经验模态分解 holt-winters
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基于SARIMA模型和Holt-Winters指数平滑法的流行性出血热发病率预测
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作者 代婷婷 刘静 《预防医学情报杂志》 2025年第8期1064-1072,共9页
目的 探讨SARIMA模型和Holt-Winters指数平滑法2种模型对流行性出血热发病率预测的应用价值。方法 基于中国2016年1月至2020年12月流行性出血热月度发病率数据,利用IBM SPSS 24.0软件中的时间序列预测模块分别建立SARIMA模型和Holt-Wint... 目的 探讨SARIMA模型和Holt-Winters指数平滑法2种模型对流行性出血热发病率预测的应用价值。方法 基于中国2016年1月至2020年12月流行性出血热月度发病率数据,利用IBM SPSS 24.0软件中的时间序列预测模块分别建立SARIMA模型和Holt-Winters指数平滑模型,对流行性出血热发病率进行预测,应用MAE、MAPE、RMSE等指标评价预测效果,检验水准α=0.05。结果 最佳的SARIMA模型为SARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)12,R^(2)为0.856,标准化的BIC为-8.505,该模型通过了Ljung-Box Q检验(P>0.05);Holt-Winters相乘模型为最优的指数平滑模型,R^(2)为0.895,标准化的BIC为-8.830;2个模型中,Holt-Winters相乘模型的MAE、MAPE、RMSE值均低于SARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)_(12)。结论 2个模型均可用于我国流行性出血热月度发病率预测,Holt-Winters相乘模型预测效果优于SARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)_(12)模型。 展开更多
关键词 SARIMA模型 holt-winters指数平滑法 流行性出血热 发病率 预测
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Holt-Winters模型在地下水水位模拟中的应用
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作者 付亚亚 冯巍 +1 位作者 雷媛 冯致远 《地下水》 2025年第4期28-30,61,共4页
地下水水位是判别地下水运动规律的重要条件,通过数值方法模拟并预测未来的地下水水位动态变化,为地下水的开发利用及保护提供客观指导。本文利用泾阳县5个典型监测站的2002-2022年逐月埋深建立Holt-Winters模型,求解参数,验证Holt-Wint... 地下水水位是判别地下水运动规律的重要条件,通过数值方法模拟并预测未来的地下水水位动态变化,为地下水的开发利用及保护提供客观指导。本文利用泾阳县5个典型监测站的2002-2022年逐月埋深建立Holt-Winters模型,求解参数,验证Holt-Winters模型在地下水水位模拟中的适用性。结果表明:(1)Holt-Winters模型可以很好的模拟实测地下水埋深的波动趋势,模拟结果相对最好的是2号测站,相对最差的是1号测站。(2)Holt-Winters加法模型和Holt-Winters乘法模型均可以很好地模拟实测埋深的波动趋势,且Holt-Winters加法模型的模拟效果优于Holt-Winters乘法模型。由此,Holt-Winters模型在地下水水位模拟中具有较强的适用性。 展开更多
关键词 holt-winters加法模型 holt-winters乘法模型 地下水水位模拟
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基于Holt-Winters-HPO-LSTM的电力系统短期负荷预测
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作者 林滔 黄俊翔 +3 位作者 王祎鎏 徐子桓 佘林昕 王赛娇 《自动化应用》 2025年第12期149-153,共5页
基于电力系统短期负荷预测在能源管理中的重要性,提出了一种结合Holt-Winters季节性分解与猎人猎物优化算法(HPO)的长短期记忆网络(Holt-Winters-HPO-LSTM)预测方法。首先,利用Holt-Winters模型对负荷时间序列进行分解,提取趋势、季节... 基于电力系统短期负荷预测在能源管理中的重要性,提出了一种结合Holt-Winters季节性分解与猎人猎物优化算法(HPO)的长短期记忆网络(Holt-Winters-HPO-LSTM)预测方法。首先,利用Holt-Winters模型对负荷时间序列进行分解,提取趋势、季节性和随机性成分,从而降低数据复杂性。随后,引入猎人猎物优化算法,对LSTM模型的超参数进行全局搜索与优化,以提升模型性能和预测准确度。基于澳大利亚某地区实际电力负荷数据进行实验,结果表明,该方法在预测精度和鲁棒性上明显优于传统预测模型,判定系数(R~2)显著升高,均方误差(MSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)均显著降低。研究结果验证了该方法在捕捉电力负荷非线性与季节性特征方面的有效性,为电力系统负荷预测与优化提供了重要参考。 展开更多
关键词 holt-winters季节性分解 猎人猎物优化算法 长短期记忆模型 短期负荷预测
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基于Holt-Winters法的配电台区售电量预测方法
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作者 熊根鑫 石文娟 +2 位作者 李淑贤 孙亚慧 王同乐 《信息技术》 2025年第2期180-186,共7页
配电台区售电量预测过程中,只能捕捉到序列数据的级别分量和趋势分量,使得预测结果的均方根误差(RMSE)较高。因此,提出基于Holt-Winters法的配电台区售电量预测方法。采集历史售电数据,并通过小波分解重构算法,完成历史售电数据的降噪... 配电台区售电量预测过程中,只能捕捉到序列数据的级别分量和趋势分量,使得预测结果的均方根误差(RMSE)较高。因此,提出基于Holt-Winters法的配电台区售电量预测方法。采集历史售电数据,并通过小波分解重构算法,完成历史售电数据的降噪处理。利用Holt-Winters指数平滑策略对数据序列展开加权平均移动分析,以时间卷积网络为核心搭建预测模型,针对输入的特征组合进行分析即可得到配电台区售电量预测结果。实验结果表明:应用所提方法得到的配电台区售电量预测值均方根误差为0.04,基本满足了售电量精准预测要求。 展开更多
关键词 holt-winters 售电量 配电台区 相似日 小波变换
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Agri-Eval:Multi-level Large Language Model Valuation Benchmark for Agriculture
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作者 WANG Yaojun GE Mingliang +2 位作者 XU Guowei ZHANG Qiyu BIE Yuhui 《农业机械学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期290-299,共10页
Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLM... Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLMs.Therefore,in order to better assess the capability of LLMs in the agricultural domain,Agri-Eval was proposed as a benchmark for assessing the knowledge and reasoning ability of LLMs in agriculture.The assessment dataset used in Agri-Eval covered seven major disciplines in the agricultural domain:crop science,horticulture,plant protection,animal husbandry,forest science,aquaculture science,and grass science,and contained a total of 2283 questions.Among domestic general-purpose LLMs,DeepSeek R1 performed best with an accuracy rate of 75.49%.In the realm of international general-purpose LLMs,Gemini 2.0 pro exp 0205 standed out as the top performer,achieving an accuracy rate of 74.28%.As an LLMs in agriculture vertical,Shennong V2.0 outperformed all the LLMs in China,and the answer accuracy rate of agricultural knowledge exceeded that of all the existing general-purpose LLMs.The launch of Agri-Eval helped the LLM developers to comprehensively evaluate the model's capability in the field of agriculture through a variety of tasks and tests to promote the development of the LLMs in the field of agriculture. 展开更多
关键词 large language models assessment systems agricultural knowledge agricultural datasets
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Ecological Dynamics of a Logistic Population Model with Impulsive Age-selective Harvesting
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作者 DAI Xiangjun JIAO Jianjun 《应用数学》 北大核心 2026年第1期72-79,共8页
In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asy... In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting. 展开更多
关键词 The logistic population model Selective harvesting Asymptotic stability EXTINCTION
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Modeling of Precipitation over Africa:Progress,Challenges,and Prospects
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作者 A.A.AKINSANOLA C.N.WENHAJI +21 位作者 R.BARIMALALA P.-A.MONERIE R.D.DIXON A.T.TAMOFFO M.O.ADENIYI V.ONGOMA I.DIALLO M.GUDOSHAVA C.M.WAINWRIGHT R.JAMES K.C.SILVERIO A.FAYE S.S.NANGOMBE M.W.POKAM D.A.VONDOU N.C.G.HART I.PINTO M.KILAVI S.HAGOS E.N.RAJAGOPAL R.K.KOLLI S.JOSEPH 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2026年第1期59-86,共28页
In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and cha... In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain. 展开更多
关键词 RAINFALL MONSOON climate modeling CORDEX CMIP6 convection-permitting models
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Stability of k-ε model in Kolmogorov flow
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作者 Jiashuo GUO Le FANG 《Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition)》 2026年第1期165-184,共20页
The Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS)technique enables critical engineering predictions and is widely adopted.However,since this iterative computation relies on the fixed-point iteration,it may converge to unexpec... The Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS)technique enables critical engineering predictions and is widely adopted.However,since this iterative computation relies on the fixed-point iteration,it may converge to unexpected non-physical phase points in practice.We conduct an analysis on the phase-space characteristics and the fixed-point theory underlying the k-ε turbulence model,and employ the classical Kolmogorov flow as a framework,leveraging its direct numerical simulation(DNS)data to construct a one-dimensional(1D)system under periodic/fixed boundary conditions.The RANS results demonstrate that under periodic boundary conditions,the k-ε model exhibits only a unique trivial fixed point,with asymptotes capturing the phase portraits.The stability of this trivial fixed point is determined by a mathematically derived stability phase diagram,indicating the fact that the k-ε model will never converge to correct values under periodic conditions.In contrast,under fixed boundary conditions,the model can yield a stable non-trivial fixed point.The evolutionary mechanisms and their relationship with boundary condition settings systematically explain the inherent limitations of the k-ε model,i.e.,its deficiency in computing the flow field under periodic boundary conditions and sensitivity to boundary-value specifications under fixed boundary conditions.These conclusions are finally validated with the open-source code OpenFOAM. 展开更多
关键词 k-εmodel Kolmogorov flow INSTABILITY turbulence model
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Design optimization and FEA of B-6 and B-7 levels ballistics armor:A modelling approach
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作者 Muhammad Naveed CHU Jinkui +1 位作者 Atif Ur Rehman Arsalan Hyder 《大连理工大学学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期66-77,共12页
Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is empl... Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is employed to simulate the ballistic impact of 7.62 mm armor-piercing projectiles on Aluminum AA5083-H116 and Steel Secure 500 armors,focusing on the evaluation of material deformation and penetration resistance at varying impact points.While the D-shaped armor plate is penetrated by the armor-piercing projectiles,the combination of the perforated D-shaped and base armor plates successfully halts penetration.A numerical model based on the finite element method is developed using software such as SolidWorks and ANSYS to analyze the interaction between radiator armor and bullet.The perforated design of radiator armor is to maintain airflow for radiator function,with hole sizes smaller than the bullet core diameter to protect radiator assemblies.Predictions are made regarding the brittle fracture resulting from the projectile core′s bending due to asymmetric impact,and the resulting fragments failed to penetrate the perforated base armor plate.Craters are formed on the surface of the perforated D-shaped armor plate due to the impact of projectile fragments.The numerical model accurately predicts hole growth and projectile penetration upon impact with the armor,demonstrating effective protection of the radiator assemblies by the radiator armor. 展开更多
关键词 radiator armor ballistics simulation Johnson-Cook model armor-piercing projectile perforated D-shaped armor plate
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CIT-Rec:Enhancing Sequential Recommendation System with Large Language Models
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作者 Ziyu Li Zhen Chen +2 位作者 Xuejing Fu Tong Mo Weiping Li 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2026年第3期2328-2343,共16页
Recommendation systems are key to boosting user engagement,satisfaction,and retention,particularly on media platforms where personalized content is vital.Sequential recommendation systems learn from user-item interact... Recommendation systems are key to boosting user engagement,satisfaction,and retention,particularly on media platforms where personalized content is vital.Sequential recommendation systems learn from user-item interactions to predict future items of interest.However,many current methods rely on unique user and item IDs,limiting their ability to represent users and items effectively,especially in zero-shot learning scenarios where training data is scarce.With the rapid development of Large Language Models(LLMs),researchers are exploring their potential to enhance recommendation systems.However,there is a semantic gap between the linguistic semantics of LLMs and the collaborative semantics of recommendation systems,where items are typically indexed by IDs.Moreover,most research focuses on item representations,neglecting personalized user modeling.To address these issues,we propose a sequential recommendation framework using LLMs,called CIT-Rec,a model that integrates Collaborative semantics for user representation and Image and Text information for item representation to enhance Recommendations.Specifically,by aligning intuitive image information with text containing semantic features,we can more accurately represent items,improving item representation quality.We focus not only on item representations but also on user representations.To more precisely capture users’personalized preferences,we use traditional sequential recommendation models to train on users’historical interaction data,effectively capturing behavioral patterns.Finally,by combining LLMs and traditional sequential recommendation models,we allow the LLM to understand linguistic semantics while capturing collaborative semantics.Extensive evaluations on real-world datasets show that our model outperforms baseline methods,effectively combining user interaction history with item visual and textual modalities to provide personalized recommendations. 展开更多
关键词 Large language models vision language models sequential recommendation instruction tuning
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Lithospheric magnetic variations on the Tibetan Plateau based on a 3D surface spline model,compared with strong earthquake occurrences
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作者 PengTao Zhang Jun Yang +3 位作者 LiLi Feng Xia Li YuHong Zhao YingFeng Ji 《Earth and Planetary Physics》 2026年第1期30-43,共14页
The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-bas... The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-based observations remain insufficient to clearly reflect the characteristics of the region’s lithospheric magnetism.In this study,we evaluate the lithospheric magnetism of the Tibetan Plateau by using a 3D surface spline model based on observations from>200 newly constructed repeat stations(portable stations)to determine the spatial distribution of plateau geomagnetism,as well as its correlation with the tectonic features of the region.We analyze the relationships between M≥5 earthquakes and lithospheric magnetic field variations on the Tibetan Plateau and identify regions susceptible to strong earthquakes.We compare the geomagnetic results with those from an enhanced magnetic model(EMM2015)developed by the NGDC and provide insights into improving lithospheric magnetic field calculations in the Tibetan Plateau region.Further research reveals that these magnetic anomalies exhibit distinct differences from the magnetic-seismic correlation mechanisms observed in other tectonic settings;here,they are governed primarily by the combined effects of compressional magnetism,thermal magnetism,and deep thermal stress.This study provides new evidence of geomagnetic anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau,interprets them physically,and demonstrates their potential for identifying seismic hazard zones on the Plateau. 展开更多
关键词 Tibetan Plateau magnetic variation SEISMICITY surface spline model enhanced magnetic model
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UAV-to-Ground Channel Modeling:(Quasi-)Closed-Form Channel Statistics and Manual Parameter Estimation
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作者 Zeng Linzhou Liao Xuewen +3 位作者 Xie Wenwu Ma Zhangfeng Xiong Baiping Jiang Hao 《China Communications》 2026年第1期47-66,共20页
(Quasi-)closed-form results for the statistical properties of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)airto-ground channels are derived for the first time using a novel spatial-vector-based method from a threedimensional(3-D)arbi... (Quasi-)closed-form results for the statistical properties of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)airto-ground channels are derived for the first time using a novel spatial-vector-based method from a threedimensional(3-D)arbitrary-elevation one-cylinder model.The derived results include a closed-form expression for the space-time correlation function and some quasi-closed-form ones for the space-Doppler power spectrum density,the level crossing rate,and the average fading duration,which are shown to be the generalizations of those previously obtained from the two-dimensional(2-D)one-ring model and the 3-D low-elevation one-cylinder model for terrestrial mobile-to-mobile channels.The close agreements between the theoretical results and the simulations as well as the measurements validate the utility of the derived channel statistics.Based on the derived expressions,the impacts of some parameters on the channel characteristics are investigated in an effective,efficient,and explicable way,which leads to a general guideline on the manual parameter estimation from the measurement description. 展开更多
关键词 channel characteristics geometry-based stochastic model manual parameter estimation UAV channel modeling
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Ecological restoration model selection for abandoned mines in the Luo River Basin,Eastern Qinling Mountains
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作者 HUANG Yuming GAO Ningze +1 位作者 ZHANG Hanyuan ZHENG Wenlong 《Journal of Mountain Science》 2026年第1期358-369,共12页
Effective management of mining areas in the Luo River Basin,located in the eastern Qinling Mountains,is vital for the integrated protection and restoration needed to support the high-quality development of the Yellow ... Effective management of mining areas in the Luo River Basin,located in the eastern Qinling Mountains,is vital for the integrated protection and restoration needed to support the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Using the‘cupball'model,this study analyzes the limiting factors and restoration characteristics across four mining areas and proposes a conceptual model for selecting appropriate restoration approaches.A second conceptual model is then introduced to address regional development needs,incorporating ecological conservation,safety protection,and people's wellbeing.The applicability of the integrated model selection framework is demonstrated through a case study on the south bank of the Qinglongjian River.The results indicate that:(1)The key limiting factors are similar across cases,but the degree of ecological degradation varies.(2)Mildly degraded areas are represented by a shallower and narrower‘cup',where natural recovery is the preferred approach,whereas moderately and severely degraded systems call for assisted regeneration and ecological reconstruction,respectively.(3)When the restoration models determined based on limiting factors and development needs are consistent,the model is directly applicable;if they differ,the option involving less artificial intervention is preferred;(4)Monitoring of the restored mining area on the Qinglongjian River's south bank confirms significant improvements in soil erosion control and vegetation coverage.This study provides a transferable methodology for balancing resource extraction with ecosystem conservation,offering practical insights for other ecologically vulnerable mining regions. 展开更多
关键词 Luo River Basin Cup-ball model Mine restoration Ecological degradation Conceptual model Development needs
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Do Higher Horizontal Resolution Models Perform Better?
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作者 Shoji KUSUNOKI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2026年第1期259-262,共4页
Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(... Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].In relation to seasonal forecasting and climate projection in the East Asian summer monsoon season,proper simulation of the seasonal migration of rain bands by models is a challenging and limiting factor[section 7.1 in Wang et al.(2025)]. 展开更多
关键词 enhancing model resolution refinement data assimilation systems section climate model climate projection higher horizontal resolution seasonal forecasting simulation seasonal migration rain bands model resolution
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A peridynamics modeling approach for pre-cracked rock cracking processes under impact by integrating Drucker-Prager plasticity model and efficient contact model
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作者 Jingzhi Tu Nengxiong Xu Gang Mei 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 2026年第1期179-195,共17页
In rock engineering,natural cracks in rock masses subjected to external loads tend to initiate and propagate,leading to potential safety hazards.To investigate the effect of cracking behavior on the mechanical propert... In rock engineering,natural cracks in rock masses subjected to external loads tend to initiate and propagate,leading to potential safety hazards.To investigate the effect of cracking behavior on the mechanical properties of rocks,the cracking processes of pre-cracked rocks have been extensively studied using numerical modeling methods.The peridynamics(PD)exhibits advantages over other numerical methods due to the absence of the requirements for remeshing and external crack growth criterion.However,for modeling pre-cracked rock cracking processes under impact,current PD implementations lack generally applicable rock constitutive models and impact contact models,which leads to difficulties in determining rock material parameters and efficiently calculating impact loads.This paper proposes a non-ordinary state-based peridynamics(NOSBPD)modeling method integrating the Drucker-Prager(DP)plasticity model and an efficient contact model to address the above problems.In the proposed method,the Drucker-Prager plasticity model is integrated into the NOSBPD,thereby equipping NOSBPD with the capability to accurately characterize the nonlinear stress-strain relationship inherent in rocks.An efficient contact model between particles and meshes is designed to calculate the impact loads,which is essentially a coupling method of PD with the finite element method(FEM).The effectiveness of the proposed NOSBPD modeling method is verified by comparison with other numerical methods and experiments.Experimental results indicate that the proposed method can effectively and accurately predict the 3D cracking processes of pre-cracked cracks under impact loading,and the maximum principal stress is the key driver behind wing crack formation in pre-cracked rocks. 展开更多
关键词 Pre-cracked rocks Cracking processes Non-ordinary state-based peridynamics (NOSBPD) Drucker-Prager plasticity model Efficient contact model
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Secured-FL:Blockchain-Based Defense against Adversarial Attacks on Federated Learning Models
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作者 Bello Musa Yakubu Nor Shahida Mohd Jamail +1 位作者 Rabia Latif Seemab Latif 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2026年第3期734-757,共24页
Federated Learning(FL)enables joint training over distributed devices without data exchange but is highly vulnerable to attacks by adversaries in the form of model poisoning and malicious update injection.This work pr... Federated Learning(FL)enables joint training over distributed devices without data exchange but is highly vulnerable to attacks by adversaries in the form of model poisoning and malicious update injection.This work proposes Secured-FL,a blockchain-based defensive framework that combines smart contract-based authentication,clustering-driven outlier elimination,and dynamic threshold adjustment to defend against adversarial attacks.The framework was implemented on a private Ethereum network with a Proof-of-Authority consensus algorithm to ensure tamper-resistant and auditable model updates.Large-scale simulation on the Cyber Data dataset,under up to 50%malicious client settings,demonstrates Secured-FL achieves 6%-12%higher accuracy,9%-15%lower latency,and approximately 14%less computational expense compared to the PPSS benchmark framework.Additional tests,including confusion matrices,ROC and Precision-Recall curves,and ablation tests,confirm the interpretability and robustness of the defense.Tests for scalability also show consistent performance up to 500 clients,affirming appropriateness to reasonably large deployments.These results make Secured-FL a feasible,adversarially resilient FL paradigm with promising potential for application in smart cities,medicine,and other mission-critical IoT deployments. 展开更多
关键词 Federated learning(FL) blockchain FL based privacy model defense FL model security ethereum smart contract
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Three-Dimensional Hybrid Model for Wave Interaction with Porous Layer
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作者 Divya Ramesh Sriram Venkatachalam 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 2026年第1期577-603,共27页
A hybrid model combining Fully Non-Linear Potential Flow Theory(FNPT)based on the Finite Element Method(FEM)and the Unified Navier-Stokes equation,using the 3D Improved Meshless Local Petrov Galerkin method with Ranki... A hybrid model combining Fully Non-Linear Potential Flow Theory(FNPT)based on the Finite Element Method(FEM)and the Unified Navier-Stokes equation,using the 3D Improved Meshless Local Petrov Galerkin method with Rankine Source(IMLPG_R),is developed to study wave interactions with a porous layer.In previous studies,the above formulations are applied to wave interaction with fixed cylindrical structures.The present study extends this framework by integrating a unified governing equation within the hybrid modeling approach to capture the dynamics of wave interaction with porous media.The porous layers are employed to replicate the wave-dissipating behavior of the structure.A weak coupling strategy is implemented within a designated buffer zone,wherein field variables from the 2D Fully Nonlinear Potential Theory(FNPT)simulations are transferred to the 3D Improved Moving Least Squares-based Petrov-Galerkin(IMLPG_R)model at each time step.This domain decomposition significantly reduces computational cost compared to a full 3D simulation by partitioning the domain into two subregions:the FNPT domain representing the far-field without structures,and the IMLPG_R domain encompassing the porous region.The Unified Navier-Stokes formulation is extended by incorporating additional drag forces governed by Darcy’s law to model the resistance introduced by the porous medium.A stationary background node framework is utilized for interpolation by fluid particles at each time step to accommodate the porous representation.To enhance numerical stability and accuracy,particularly in the presence of sloping boundaries,the Particle Shifting Technique(PST)is integrated into the IMLPG_R model.This implementation involves a modified version of the PST algorithm,where key parameters such as the weight function,velocity ratio,and radius of influence are optimized for IMLPG_R.This is the first time the application of 3D IMLPG_R for porous structure has been reported.Further,the model is subsequently validated against experimental data. 展开更多
关键词 FNPT IMLPG_R hybrid model PST
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