Backgrounds Most significant findings from the Global Tuberculosis(TB)Report 2023 indicate that India,Indonesia,China,the Philippines,Pakistan,Nigeria,Bangladesh,and the Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC)collective...Backgrounds Most significant findings from the Global Tuberculosis(TB)Report 2023 indicate that India,Indonesia,China,the Philippines,Pakistan,Nigeria,Bangladesh,and the Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC)collectively contribute to approximately two-thirds of global TB cases.This study aims to provide crucial data-driven insights and references to improve TB control measures through a comprehensive analysis of these eight high-burden countries.Methods The eight high-burden TB countries analyzed in this study include India,Indonesia,China,the Philippines,Pakistan,Nigeria,Bangladesh,and the DRC.Age-standardized incidence rates(ASIR)of TB were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021 data.Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression.An age-period-cohort model was applied to examine the risk ratios(RR)of TB across diverse age groups,periods,and birth cohorts.A Bayesian age-period-cohort framework was employed to predict the ASIR of TB by 2030.Results The study found that the Philippines(average annual percentage change=3.1%,P<0.001)exhibited an upward trend from 1990 to 2021.In India,the Philippines,Pakistan,and Bangladesh,the RR of TB incidence exceeded 1 after individuals reached 25 years old.Notably,the RR has shown a consistent upward trend since 2001,peaking during the period of 2017-2021 with an estimated RR of 1.5(P<0.001)in the Philippines.Similarly,the highest RR was observed during the period of 2017-2021 reaching 1.1(P<0.001)in the DRC.In the Philippines,the markedly increasing RR values for TB have been observed among individuals born after 1997-2001.Projections suggest that the ASIR of TB is expected to follow a continued upward trajectory,with an estimated rate of 392.9 per 100,000 by 2030 in the Philippines;India and Indonesia are projected to achieve less than 20.0%of the target set by the World Health Organization(WHO).Conclusions Among the eight high-burden countries,the Philippines,India and Indonesia are diverging from the goals set by the WHO,and the risk of TB in the Philippines and the DRC shows a trend toward affecting younger populations,which suggests that the management strategies for TB patients need to be further strengthened.展开更多
目的研究1990-2021年中国归因于高体重指数(Body Mass Index,BMI)的结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势,并对2022-2035年死亡率进行预测。方法利用2021全球疾病负担数据,分析1990-2021年中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌死亡率和DALY(Disability-adjust...目的研究1990-2021年中国归因于高体重指数(Body Mass Index,BMI)的结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势,并对2022-2035年死亡率进行预测。方法利用2021全球疾病负担数据,分析1990-2021年中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌死亡率和DALY(Disability-adjusted Life Years,DALY)率及其标化率的变化趋势,计算其平均年度变化百分比(Average Annual Percent Change,AAPC)。通过年龄-时期-队列(Age-Period-Cohort,APC)模型评估归因死亡率的年龄时期队列效应,并采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型(Bayesian age-period-cohort models,BAPC)对2022-2035年中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌死亡率进行预测。结果1990-2021年,中国高BMI所致结直肠癌的标化死亡率(Age-standardized Mortality Rate,ASMR)和标化DALY率(Age-standardized Disability-adjusted Life Years Rate,ASDR)显著上升,危险因素排名分别从第9升至第5位和第4位,AAPC值分别为2.43%(95%CI:2.29~2.57)和2.33%(95%CI:2.21~2.46),其增速超过全球及各个社会人口学指数地区。男性的疾病负担显著高于女性,死亡率的年均变化率为女性的2.37倍。此外,死亡率随年龄增长显著增加,队列效应亦表现出较高的死亡风险。预测显示,2022-2035年间,中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌死亡率仍将继续上升,累积增幅达53.06%。结论中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌疾病负担持续加重,男性及老年人群风险尤为显著。应通过优化公共卫生政策,包括推广健康饮食、加强体重管理、促进体力活动和完善癌症筛查策略,减少高BMI相关的结直肠癌负担。展开更多
目的探究脑小血管病(cerebral small vessel disease,CSVD)患者非高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol,non-HDL-C)及其与CSVD影像总负荷的关系。方法选取2021年1月至2024年7月首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院神...目的探究脑小血管病(cerebral small vessel disease,CSVD)患者非高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol,non-HDL-C)及其与CSVD影像总负荷的关系。方法选取2021年1月至2024年7月首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院神经内科收治的年龄≥60岁住院患者303例,根据CSVD影像总负荷评分为0分组108例,1分组61例,2分组66例,3分组35例,≥4分组33例。采用二元logistic回归分析non-HDL-C与CSVD相关性。结果0分组、1分组、2分组、3分组及≥4分组的TC、non-HDL-C水平逐渐明显升高(P<0.01)。3分组non-HDL-C水平明显高于0分组(P=0.001)。2分组、3分组及≥4分组non-HDL-C水平明显高于1分组(P<0.05)。CSVD影像总负荷与non-HDL-C水平呈正相关(P=0.001)。对患者年龄、性别、高血压、糖尿病、高脂血症等指标校正后发现,non-HDL-C仍是CSVD的独立危险因素(OR=2.869,95%CI:1.012~8.136,P=0.047)。结论在老年人群中,non-HDL-C升高与CSVD影像总负荷增加密切相关,可作为CSVD的早期干预的指标。展开更多
目的分析1990—2023年中国膝骨关节炎(knee osteoarthritis,KOA)疾病负担现状与变化趋势,揭示年龄、性别差异及高身体质量指数(body mass index,BMI)归因的流行病学特征,为制定防治策略减轻KOA疾病负担提供依据。方法基于全球疾病负担研...目的分析1990—2023年中国膝骨关节炎(knee osteoarthritis,KOA)疾病负担现状与变化趋势,揭示年龄、性别差异及高身体质量指数(body mass index,BMI)归因的流行病学特征,为制定防治策略减轻KOA疾病负担提供依据。方法基于全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study,GBD)2023数据库,整合中国人群1990—2023年KOA发病、患病、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)以及高BMI归因KOA的DALYs的数量、率和经年龄标准化率数据,运用Joinpoint 5.4.0.0软件分析KOA的年龄、性别差异及高BMI归因的流行病学特征。结果2023年中国KOA的标化发病率、标化患病率和标化DALYs率相较1990年分别增长了6.46%、6.43%和6.93%。中国KOA疾病负担总体在30~34岁最低,发病率在50~54岁最高,而患病率和DALYs率随年龄增长而持续增长,均在≥70岁年龄段最高。女性各项疾病负担标化率指标均高于男性,且差异随年龄增长而扩大。归因于高BMI的KOA标化DALYs率从1990年至2023年年均增长1.57%(95%CI:1.55,1.59),同样存在明显的年龄和性别差异。结论中国KOA疾病负担持续增长并存在明显的人群差异特征,呼吁重点关注女性中老年人群,加强体质量管理,实施针对性预防控制措施。展开更多
文摘Backgrounds Most significant findings from the Global Tuberculosis(TB)Report 2023 indicate that India,Indonesia,China,the Philippines,Pakistan,Nigeria,Bangladesh,and the Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC)collectively contribute to approximately two-thirds of global TB cases.This study aims to provide crucial data-driven insights and references to improve TB control measures through a comprehensive analysis of these eight high-burden countries.Methods The eight high-burden TB countries analyzed in this study include India,Indonesia,China,the Philippines,Pakistan,Nigeria,Bangladesh,and the DRC.Age-standardized incidence rates(ASIR)of TB were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021 data.Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression.An age-period-cohort model was applied to examine the risk ratios(RR)of TB across diverse age groups,periods,and birth cohorts.A Bayesian age-period-cohort framework was employed to predict the ASIR of TB by 2030.Results The study found that the Philippines(average annual percentage change=3.1%,P<0.001)exhibited an upward trend from 1990 to 2021.In India,the Philippines,Pakistan,and Bangladesh,the RR of TB incidence exceeded 1 after individuals reached 25 years old.Notably,the RR has shown a consistent upward trend since 2001,peaking during the period of 2017-2021 with an estimated RR of 1.5(P<0.001)in the Philippines.Similarly,the highest RR was observed during the period of 2017-2021 reaching 1.1(P<0.001)in the DRC.In the Philippines,the markedly increasing RR values for TB have been observed among individuals born after 1997-2001.Projections suggest that the ASIR of TB is expected to follow a continued upward trajectory,with an estimated rate of 392.9 per 100,000 by 2030 in the Philippines;India and Indonesia are projected to achieve less than 20.0%of the target set by the World Health Organization(WHO).Conclusions Among the eight high-burden countries,the Philippines,India and Indonesia are diverging from the goals set by the WHO,and the risk of TB in the Philippines and the DRC shows a trend toward affecting younger populations,which suggests that the management strategies for TB patients need to be further strengthened.
文摘目的研究1990-2021年中国归因于高体重指数(Body Mass Index,BMI)的结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势,并对2022-2035年死亡率进行预测。方法利用2021全球疾病负担数据,分析1990-2021年中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌死亡率和DALY(Disability-adjusted Life Years,DALY)率及其标化率的变化趋势,计算其平均年度变化百分比(Average Annual Percent Change,AAPC)。通过年龄-时期-队列(Age-Period-Cohort,APC)模型评估归因死亡率的年龄时期队列效应,并采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型(Bayesian age-period-cohort models,BAPC)对2022-2035年中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌死亡率进行预测。结果1990-2021年,中国高BMI所致结直肠癌的标化死亡率(Age-standardized Mortality Rate,ASMR)和标化DALY率(Age-standardized Disability-adjusted Life Years Rate,ASDR)显著上升,危险因素排名分别从第9升至第5位和第4位,AAPC值分别为2.43%(95%CI:2.29~2.57)和2.33%(95%CI:2.21~2.46),其增速超过全球及各个社会人口学指数地区。男性的疾病负担显著高于女性,死亡率的年均变化率为女性的2.37倍。此外,死亡率随年龄增长显著增加,队列效应亦表现出较高的死亡风险。预测显示,2022-2035年间,中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌死亡率仍将继续上升,累积增幅达53.06%。结论中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌疾病负担持续加重,男性及老年人群风险尤为显著。应通过优化公共卫生政策,包括推广健康饮食、加强体重管理、促进体力活动和完善癌症筛查策略,减少高BMI相关的结直肠癌负担。
文摘目的探究脑小血管病(cerebral small vessel disease,CSVD)患者非高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol,non-HDL-C)及其与CSVD影像总负荷的关系。方法选取2021年1月至2024年7月首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院神经内科收治的年龄≥60岁住院患者303例,根据CSVD影像总负荷评分为0分组108例,1分组61例,2分组66例,3分组35例,≥4分组33例。采用二元logistic回归分析non-HDL-C与CSVD相关性。结果0分组、1分组、2分组、3分组及≥4分组的TC、non-HDL-C水平逐渐明显升高(P<0.01)。3分组non-HDL-C水平明显高于0分组(P=0.001)。2分组、3分组及≥4分组non-HDL-C水平明显高于1分组(P<0.05)。CSVD影像总负荷与non-HDL-C水平呈正相关(P=0.001)。对患者年龄、性别、高血压、糖尿病、高脂血症等指标校正后发现,non-HDL-C仍是CSVD的独立危险因素(OR=2.869,95%CI:1.012~8.136,P=0.047)。结论在老年人群中,non-HDL-C升高与CSVD影像总负荷增加密切相关,可作为CSVD的早期干预的指标。
文摘目的分析1990—2023年中国膝骨关节炎(knee osteoarthritis,KOA)疾病负担现状与变化趋势,揭示年龄、性别差异及高身体质量指数(body mass index,BMI)归因的流行病学特征,为制定防治策略减轻KOA疾病负担提供依据。方法基于全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study,GBD)2023数据库,整合中国人群1990—2023年KOA发病、患病、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)以及高BMI归因KOA的DALYs的数量、率和经年龄标准化率数据,运用Joinpoint 5.4.0.0软件分析KOA的年龄、性别差异及高BMI归因的流行病学特征。结果2023年中国KOA的标化发病率、标化患病率和标化DALYs率相较1990年分别增长了6.46%、6.43%和6.93%。中国KOA疾病负担总体在30~34岁最低,发病率在50~54岁最高,而患病率和DALYs率随年龄增长而持续增长,均在≥70岁年龄段最高。女性各项疾病负担标化率指标均高于男性,且差异随年龄增长而扩大。归因于高BMI的KOA标化DALYs率从1990年至2023年年均增长1.57%(95%CI:1.55,1.59),同样存在明显的年龄和性别差异。结论中国KOA疾病负担持续增长并存在明显的人群差异特征,呼吁重点关注女性中老年人群,加强体质量管理,实施针对性预防控制措施。
