Although momentum strategies result in abnormal profitability,thereby challenging the efficient market hypothesis(EMH),concerns persist regarding their reliability due to their significant volatility and susceptibilit...Although momentum strategies result in abnormal profitability,thereby challenging the efficient market hypothesis(EMH),concerns persist regarding their reliability due to their significant volatility and susceptibility to substantial losses.In this study,we investigate the limitations of these strategies and propose a solution.Our literature review reveals that the volatile profits are due to statistical analyses that assume the persistence of past patterns,leading to unreliable results in out-of-sample scenarios when underlying mechanisms evolve.Statistical analysis,the predominant method in financial economics,often proves inadequate in explaining market fluctuations and predicting crashes.To overcome these limitations,a paradigm shift towards dynamic approaches is essential.Drawing inspiration from three groundbreaking economists,we introduce the extended Samuelson model(ESM),a dynamic model that connects price changes to market participant actions.This paradigm transition uncovers several significant findings.First,timely signals indicate momentum initiations,cessations,and reversals,validated using S&P 500 data from 1999 to 2023.Second,ESM predicts the 1987 Black Monday crash weeks in advance,offering a new perspective on its underlying cause.Third,we classify sequential stock price data into eight distinct market states,including their thresholds for transitions,laying the groundwork for market trend predictions and risk assessments.Fourth,the ESM is shown to be a compelling alternative to EMH,offering potent explanatory and predictive power based on a single,realistic assumption.Our findings suggest that ESM has the potential to provide policymakers with proactive tools,enabling financial institutions to enhance their risk assessment and management strategies.展开更多
This paper takes Zoomlion （Changsha Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd） as an example and illustrates the reasons why traditional theories of stock dividends and stock splits cannot ...This paper takes Zoomlion （Changsha Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd） as an example and illustrates the reasons why traditional theories of stock dividends and stock splits cannot rationally explain the large stock dividend and stock split behavior among Chinese listed companies. The paper offers the following points after analyzing the current situation of China＇s capital market： As many investors seek after the stocks with large stock dividends and stock splits and form a ＂herd effect＂, it greatly pushes up the price of these stocks. Thus, companies＇ managers can cater these investors＇ irrational behavior, and help their companies get more funds from secondary equity offerings, or help their large shareholders and institutional investors to obtain more returns after lifting the sell restriction on their shares.展开更多
Due to the relatively short history of the development of the Chinese stock market,the investment philosophy and psychology of most individual investors are not particularly mature.Especially under the influence of pu...Due to the relatively short history of the development of the Chinese stock market,the investment philosophy and psychology of most individual investors are not particularly mature.Especially under the influence of public health emergencies,the individual investors’characteristic of the investment behavior in the stock market has become more obvious.This paper combines questionnaire and psychological experiments to study the factors that affect investment decisions of individual investors,and then takes COVID-19 as an example to analyze the impact of public emergencies on individual investors’investment decisions in the stock market.展开更多
Guidance signs are generally considered to be key in improving the efficiency of emergency building evacuations.During a group evacuation,how obedient is the group to the evacuation signs?Would different evacuation si...Guidance signs are generally considered to be key in improving the efficiency of emergency building evacuations.During a group evacuation,how obedient is the group to the evacuation signs?Would different evacuation signs affect the judgment of evacuated groups?Evacuation experiments were conducted to explore the influence of evacuation signs on the path selection of evacuation groups.Fourteen classes with 514 participants participated in these experiments,and each class participated in one experiment.Six classes conducted the experiments without guidance signs,and the rest conducted the experiments with guidance signs.The influences of the sign’s color(red and green),pattern(arrow and running man),and status(whether it flashes)on the route selection were studied.The results show that(1)the evacuation signs significantly affect the route choices of the evacuated groups.(2)The herding effect during the evacuation process does not influence the guiding effect of evacuation signs.(3)Evacuation signs of different colors and patterns have different guiding effects,and the Green running man sign has the best effect.(4)The constant bright,or flashing evacuation sign corresponding to the flashing Red running man has a significant impact on the route selection of the evacuated group.The results may provide a reference for improving the emergency evacuation guidance model of office buildings or other buildings with a large flow of people and optimize ideas for the design and layout of emergency evacuation signs.展开更多
文摘Although momentum strategies result in abnormal profitability,thereby challenging the efficient market hypothesis(EMH),concerns persist regarding their reliability due to their significant volatility and susceptibility to substantial losses.In this study,we investigate the limitations of these strategies and propose a solution.Our literature review reveals that the volatile profits are due to statistical analyses that assume the persistence of past patterns,leading to unreliable results in out-of-sample scenarios when underlying mechanisms evolve.Statistical analysis,the predominant method in financial economics,often proves inadequate in explaining market fluctuations and predicting crashes.To overcome these limitations,a paradigm shift towards dynamic approaches is essential.Drawing inspiration from three groundbreaking economists,we introduce the extended Samuelson model(ESM),a dynamic model that connects price changes to market participant actions.This paradigm transition uncovers several significant findings.First,timely signals indicate momentum initiations,cessations,and reversals,validated using S&P 500 data from 1999 to 2023.Second,ESM predicts the 1987 Black Monday crash weeks in advance,offering a new perspective on its underlying cause.Third,we classify sequential stock price data into eight distinct market states,including their thresholds for transitions,laying the groundwork for market trend predictions and risk assessments.Fourth,the ESM is shown to be a compelling alternative to EMH,offering potent explanatory and predictive power based on a single,realistic assumption.Our findings suggest that ESM has the potential to provide policymakers with proactive tools,enabling financial institutions to enhance their risk assessment and management strategies.
文摘This paper takes Zoomlion （Changsha Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd） as an example and illustrates the reasons why traditional theories of stock dividends and stock splits cannot rationally explain the large stock dividend and stock split behavior among Chinese listed companies. The paper offers the following points after analyzing the current situation of China＇s capital market： As many investors seek after the stocks with large stock dividends and stock splits and form a ＂herd effect＂, it greatly pushes up the price of these stocks. Thus, companies＇ managers can cater these investors＇ irrational behavior, and help their companies get more funds from secondary equity offerings, or help their large shareholders and institutional investors to obtain more returns after lifting the sell restriction on their shares.
文摘Due to the relatively short history of the development of the Chinese stock market,the investment philosophy and psychology of most individual investors are not particularly mature.Especially under the influence of public health emergencies,the individual investors’characteristic of the investment behavior in the stock market has become more obvious.This paper combines questionnaire and psychological experiments to study the factors that affect investment decisions of individual investors,and then takes COVID-19 as an example to analyze the impact of public emergencies on individual investors’investment decisions in the stock market.
基金Public Security Behavior Science and En-gineering Action Project of People’s Public Security University of China(2022KXGCKJ02)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Uni-versities(2019JKF429).
文摘Guidance signs are generally considered to be key in improving the efficiency of emergency building evacuations.During a group evacuation,how obedient is the group to the evacuation signs?Would different evacuation signs affect the judgment of evacuated groups?Evacuation experiments were conducted to explore the influence of evacuation signs on the path selection of evacuation groups.Fourteen classes with 514 participants participated in these experiments,and each class participated in one experiment.Six classes conducted the experiments without guidance signs,and the rest conducted the experiments with guidance signs.The influences of the sign’s color(red and green),pattern(arrow and running man),and status(whether it flashes)on the route selection were studied.The results show that(1)the evacuation signs significantly affect the route choices of the evacuated groups.(2)The herding effect during the evacuation process does not influence the guiding effect of evacuation signs.(3)Evacuation signs of different colors and patterns have different guiding effects,and the Green running man sign has the best effect.(4)The constant bright,or flashing evacuation sign corresponding to the flashing Red running man has a significant impact on the route selection of the evacuated group.The results may provide a reference for improving the emergency evacuation guidance model of office buildings or other buildings with a large flow of people and optimize ideas for the design and layout of emergency evacuation signs.
