Government leaders have struggled to reduce the infection and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)as well as to keep the economy and businesses open.There is a large variation of mortality and damage to ec...Government leaders have struggled to reduce the infection and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)as well as to keep the economy and businesses open.There is a large variation of mortality and damage to economy among countries.One possible cause leading to the large variation is the manner in which countries have delt with COVID-19.Some countries or regions such as China,New Zealand,and Taiwan,acted quickly and aggressively by implementing border closures,lockdown,school closures,mass testing,etc.On the other hand,many European countries,United States,and Brazil delayed their decisions to implement these restrictions and measures.No study has assessed the correlation between gross domestic product(GDP)and COVID-19 mortality.In the present study,there was a negative correlation between GDP and COVID-19 mortality suggesting that countries that failed to control the virus(larger COVID-19 mortality)would see a larger decline in GDP.Governmental leaders should act fast and aggressively when making decisions because data shows that countries who have run after two hares have caught neither.Furthermore,citizens of each country need to do their own part by following guidelines and practicing social distancing and mask wearing,which are considered the most effective,easiest,and cheapest measures that can be taken,so that repeated lockdowns can be avoided.展开更多
Governments influence the economy by changing the level and types of taxes, the extent and composition of spending, and the degree and form of borrowing. Governments directly and indirectly influence the way resources...Governments influence the economy by changing the level and types of taxes, the extent and composition of spending, and the degree and form of borrowing. Governments directly and indirectly influence the way resources are used in the economy. Higher taxes, fees, and greater regulations can stymie businesses or entire industries and the resulting impact is reflected on the country’s economy status (strong or weak). The growth rate of GDP is often used as an indicator of the general health of the economy. In broad terms, an increase in real GDP is interpreted as a sign that the economy is doing well. So it is important to study and pay more attention to country’s GDP growth rate. In this paper, an intervention analysis approach was applied to Nigeria GDP data in order to evaluate the performances of military and civilian rules in the country. Data on Nigeria GDP were collected and subjected to interrupted (intervention) time series model. Based on the Alkaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and sigma<sup>2</sup> values, the interrupted time series model ARIMA (1, 1, 0) with exogenous variables (per capita per capita GDP, intervention, year and yearAfter) was identified as the best model amongst other competing models. It was observed that the intervention (civilian rule) was significant at the 10% level of significance in increasing the Nigeria GDP by 10B US$ on the average since 2005 till 2021 while controlling for the effects of other determinants. Also, the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) forecasts indicate that the Nigeria GDP will continue increasing during the civilian rule. As a result, changing from military rule to civilian rule in Nigeria significantly increased the GDP of the country.展开更多
Governments influence the economy by changing the level and types of taxes, the extent and composition of spending, and the degree and form of borrowing. Governments directly and indirectly influence the way resources...Governments influence the economy by changing the level and types of taxes, the extent and composition of spending, and the degree and form of borrowing. Governments directly and indirectly influence the way resources are used in the economy. Higher taxes, fees, and greater regulations can stymie businesses or entire industries and the resulting impact is reflected on the country’s economy status (strong or weak). The growth rate of GDP is often used as an indicator of the general health of the economy. In broad terms, an increase in real GDP is interpreted as a sign that the economy is doing well. So it is important to study and pay more attention to country’s GDP growth rate. In this paper, an intervention analysis approach was applied to Nigeria GDP data in order to evaluate the performances of military and civilian rules in the country. Data on Nigeria GDP were collected and subjected to interrupted (intervention) time series model. Based on the Alkaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and sigma<sup>2</sup> values, the interrupted time series model ARIMA (1, 1, 0) with exogenous variables (per capita per capita GDP, intervention, year and yearAfter) was identified as the best model amongst other competing models. It was observed that the intervention (civilian rule) was significant at the 10% level of significance in increasing the Nigeria GDP by 10B US$ on the average since 2005 till 2021 while controlling for the effects of other determinants. Also, the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) forecasts indicate that the Nigeria GDP will continue increasing during the civilian rule. As a result, changing from military rule to civilian rule in Nigeria significantly increased the GDP of the country.展开更多
In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all the social wealthes are classified according to their structural type and occupational use. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated from...In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all the social wealthes are classified according to their structural type and occupational use. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated from each facility class separately. For many regions of the world, however, the vast amount of data required by this method is difficult or impossible to obtain. The traditional method is also unable to estimate quickly the loss from an unexpected disaster earthquake. It is difficult to give the necessary risk information to help the government to rescue and relief the earthquake disaster. This paper proposes a simple estimation method of earthquake loss based on macroscopic economical index of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population distribution data. A preliminary nonlinear relation among hazard loss, seismic intensity and social wealth was developed by means of some earthquake disaster records during 1980～1995. This method was applied to analyze several assumed earthquakes. The preliminary analysis results show that the new method is effective and reasonable for quick assessment of earthquake loss.展开更多
Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. The number of nonlinear business c...Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. The number of nonlinear business cycle models use chaos theory to explain complex motion of the economy. Almost three years after the crisis, the G7 countries continue to be challenged with economic volatility. The global economy has slowed. Growth in the United States has weakened. In Europe, economic instability is generated by the financial and economic imbalances. Europe is gripped with financial strains from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area periphery. How these G7 economies confront their fiscal challenges will profoundly affect their economic stability. The basic aim of this paper is to provide a relatively simple chaotic economic growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos. This paper looks in more detail at the GDP growth stability issues in each of the G7 countries in the period 1990-2012 （Retrieved from http：//www, imf.org）. A key hypothesis of this work is based on the idea that the coefficient π =[p（s_p-i-n/pb-p_mb_m）] plays a crucial role in explaining local stability of the gross domestic product growth, where, p---the coefficient of labour productivity; p.,--the coefficient of the marginal labour productivity, sp-private saving rate;i--investment rate; b-percent of the gross domestic product which belongs to budget deficit; bm-marginal budget deficit coefficient; n-net capital outflow rate.展开更多
Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutp ani village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (AP...Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutp ani village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (APM). Through the APM simulation in this study, all of forestland will be transferred into agricu ltural land in 2030 at the rate of 24% per year on the current productivity. And if the productivity of subsistence food crop is assumed to increase at the rate of 1%, the productivity of market crop and export crop increase at the rate of 2% annually, deforestation rate will decrease to 17% per year, but only 124 hm2 forest land will be left till 2038. The agriculture productivity is a very impor tant factor for the deforestation, so intensification of agriculture management is more important.展开更多
Ozone production sensitivity is widely used to reveal the chemical dominant precursors of urban ozone rise.Here,we diagnose the impact of the decline in global human production activities level caused by the COVID-19 ...Ozone production sensitivity is widely used to reveal the chemical dominant precursors of urban ozone rise.Here,we diagnose the impact of the decline in global human production activities level caused by the COVID-19 on ozone sensitivity through the ratio of formaldehyde(HCHO)and NO_(2)(FNR=HCHO/NO_(2))observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument.We use a relative uncertainty threshold to clean the satellite FNR,and our satellite FNR present a good correlation(R=0.6248)with U.S.Environmental Protection Agency observations.We found that the outbreak of the COVID-19 did not change the pattern of global ozone sensitivity,while the global regimes was transforming or strengthening to VOC-limited regimes due to the significant decline of human production activities levels.During the COVID-19,ozone sensitivity in Eastern China and East Africa continued to shift to VOC-limited regimes,while India,Western Europe and North America first moved to NOx-limited regimes,and then changed to VOC-limited regimes with the resumption of production and the increase in travel.The clustering results tell that urban ozone sensitivity tends to shift towards NOx-limited regimes as economic growing.The ozone formation in cities with lower FNR and per capita gross domestic product(GDP)are more sensitive to changes in VOCs,while cities with higher FNR and per capita GDP are more sensitive to variations in NOx.Cities with intermediate FNR and GDP are good evidence of the existence of transitional regimes.Our study identifies the driving role of urban economics in orienting the evolution of ozone sensitivity regimes.展开更多
The future increased frequency and intensity of heat waves(HWs)across China will exacerbate adverse effects on society and the environment.However,changes in socioeconomic exposure remain underexplored.In this study,c...The future increased frequency and intensity of heat waves(HWs)across China will exacerbate adverse effects on society and the environment.However,changes in socioeconomic exposure remain underexplored.In this study,climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),together with population and gross domestic product(GDP)projections were used to investigate projected heat stress and socioeconomic exposure across China and its eight subregions under four shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,SSP3–7.0,and SSP5–8.5)over three periods(2021–2040,2051–2070,and 2081–2100).Our results indicate a consistent upward trend in the Universal Thermal Climate Index(UTCI)across all scenarios,with intensifying increases over time,peaking at>6°C.This suggests a continuous increase in the number of extreme heat events(EHEs)in China.Population exposure to EHEs across the four UTCI thresholds(>26°C,>32°C,>38°C,and>46°C)shows an increasing trend.Projections indicate a∼14-fold increase nationwide,500-fold increase in Northwest China(NWC),and a 1000-fold in Southwest China(SWC2)under SSP5–8.5 by2081–2100 compared with current levels.The eastern and southeastern regions,especially the Yangtze River and Pearl River Delta,show significant GDP exposure increases under SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5.Population exposure is mainly driven by climatic effects under severe scenarios,whereas GDP exposure is influenced by interaction effects,particularly under SSP5–8.5 and during the 2090s.This study's findings offer actionable insights for targeted adaptation in China's diverse geographies.展开更多
The last 35 years have been characterized, worldwide, for lack of economic growth and increasing inequality in income distribution and its concentration. This has resulted in increased poverty and falling purchasing p...The last 35 years have been characterized, worldwide, for lack of economic growth and increasing inequality in income distribution and its concentration. This has resulted in increased poverty and falling purchasing power of the middle classes, which has become the most serious problem with which we enter the twenty-first century. Mexico has been no exception. This article covers the first part of the research I’m doing in the 9th. Researchers call for 2015-2016 of the De La Salle University Bajio in Leon, Mexico. In the second part I will discuss inequality in income deciles in which is statistically divided our population and the way in which the concentration of income in fewer hands is affecting the market performance. This research has required having historical series covering the last 57 years of economic and population growth in Mexico. Measure the evolution of gross domestic product (GDP) from the beginning of the presidential terms from 1959 to 2015. It has been problematic since in Mexico there are not series covering the entire period. I had to go to the World Bank data (WB) which provides them from 1960. We found discrepancies in GDP series between those of WB, International Monetary Fund (IMF), United Nations Organization (UNO) and the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI) from Mexico. The second difficulty appeared in the series of the population of our country. There are also discrepancies between census data and estimates of the same INEGI. Moreover, the series of WB and Penn World Table (PWT) also show differences between them. Converting the results of real GDP per capita to dollars had no difficulty due to information from the Mexican Central Bank (BM). The conversionto interccnational dollars as estimated by the purchasing power parity (PPP) was obtained from PWT 8.1.展开更多
Ecological compensation is becoming one of key and multidiscipline issues in the field of resources and environmental management. Considering the change relation between gross domestic product (GDP) and ecological cap...Ecological compensation is becoming one of key and multidiscipline issues in the field of resources and environmental management. Considering the change relation between gross domestic product (GDP) and ecological capital (EC) based on remote sensing estimation, we construct a new quantitative estimate model for ecological compensation, using county as study unit, and determine standard value so as to evaluate ecological compensation from 2001 to 2004 in Zhejiang Province, China. Spatial differences of the ecological compensation were significant among all the counties or districts. This model fills up the gap in the field of quantitative evaluation of regional ecological compensation and provides a feasible way to reconcile the conflicts among benefits in the economic, social, and ecological sectors.展开更多
AIM To evaluate the association between mortality-to-incidence ratios(MIRs) and health disparities.METHODS In this study, we used the GLOBOCAN 2012 database to obtain the cancer incidence and mortality data for 57 cou...AIM To evaluate the association between mortality-to-incidence ratios(MIRs) and health disparities.METHODS In this study, we used the GLOBOCAN 2012 database to obtain the cancer incidence and mortality data for 57 countries, and combined this information with the World Health Organization(WHO) rankings and total expenditures on health/gross domestic product(e/GDP). The associations between variables and MIRs were analyzed by linear regression analyses and the 57 countries were selected according to their data quality. RESULTS The more developed regions showed high gastric cancer incidence and mortality crude rates, but lower MIR values than the less developed regions(0.64 vs 0.80, respectively). Among six continents, Oceania had the lowest(0.60) and Africa had the highest(0.91) MIR. A good WHO ranking and a high e/GDP were significantly associated with low MIRs(P = 0.001 and P = 0.001, respectively).CONCLUSION The MIR variation for gastric cancer would predict regional health disparities.展开更多
The potential association between medical resources and the proportion of oldest-old(90 years of age and above)in the Chinese population was examined,and we found that the higher proportion of oldest-old was associate...The potential association between medical resources and the proportion of oldest-old(90 years of age and above)in the Chinese population was examined,and we found that the higher proportion of oldest-old was associated with the higher number of beds in hospitals and health centers.展开更多
As the traffic distribution in China mainland is far from uniform, a new traffic model in China mainland is presented on the basis of per-capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and density of population. Based on this ch...As the traffic distribution in China mainland is far from uniform, a new traffic model in China mainland is presented on the basis of per-capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and density of population. Based on this characteristic traffic model, a new Traffic Dependent Dynamic Channel Allocation and Reservation (TDDCAR) technique is proposed, the simulation model is built, and the strategies' performance is evaluated through computer simulation. The simulation results show that, compared to the conventional Fixed Channel Allocation (FCA), TDDCAR estimates the traffic conditions in every spot beam and frequently adjusts the traffic according to current traffic conditions. It has achieved a significant improvement in new call blocking probability, handover blocking probability, and fair index, particularly, in heavy traffic conditions. The building of traffic model in China mainland and the analysis of the simulation results has been a key foundation for the study of resource allocation schemes in the future.展开更多
China’s swift and substantial economic growth over the past 20 years has made the country one of the top industrial powers in the world, second only the United States. From the perspective of ecology and the impact o...China’s swift and substantial economic growth over the past 20 years has made the country one of the top industrial powers in the world, second only the United States. From the perspective of ecology and the impact on the environment produced by economic and industrial growth, the exports that have driven rapid growth have also resulted in an alarming level of environmental pollution in major Chinese cities. Research has shown that the Chinese government’s investment in bringing down pollution levels has been insufficient and ineffective. The monetary amount allocated for pollution reduction has barely reached 0.15% of the country’s GDP and has failed to meaningfully reverse the effects of industrialization, including increased exports and economic growth rates affecting China’s ecology. The present study investigated China’s ecological situation in terms of the industrial production that has generated its level of exports, with special focus on problems related to water, air, and solid waste. An econometric analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between the main variables. The exports and GDP (dependent variable), air pollution, water pollution, and industrial solid waste (independent variables) were provided by the Institute of Statistics and the Environment Institute of China for this study. The data was managed in Econometric Eviews 7.0 software and yielded an adjusted R<sup>2 </sup>of 96.09% (high correlation) with an interesting correlation between the exports and three independent variables;after subsequent variable analysis, we found that investments in water and industrial solid waste were not significant (i.e., that said investments have failed to solve the pollution problem). It is necessary to review the Chinese investment policy with special attention to these variables to appropriately respond to China’s ecological crisis.展开更多
BACKGROUND The global epidemiology of type 1 diabetes(T1D)is not yet well known,as no precise data are available from many countries.T1D is,however,characterized by an important variation in incidences among countries...BACKGROUND The global epidemiology of type 1 diabetes(T1D)is not yet well known,as no precise data are available from many countries.T1D is,however,characterized by an important variation in incidences among countries and a dramatic increase of these incidences during the last decades,predominantly in younger children.In the United States and Europe,the increase has been associated with the gross domestic product(GDP)per capita.In our previous systematic review,geographical variation of incidence was correlated with socio-economic factors.AIM To investigate variation in the incidence of T1D in age categories and search to what extent these variations correlated with the GDP per capita.METHODS A systematic review was performed to retrieve information about the global incidence of T1D among those younger than 14 years of age.The study was carried out according to the PRISMA recommendations.For the analysis,the incidence was organized in the periods:1975-1999 and 2000-2017.We searched the incidence of T1D in the age-groups 0-4,5-9 and 10-14.We compared the incidences in countries for which information was available for the two periods.We obtained the GDP from the World Bank.We analysed the relationship between the incidence of T1D with the GDP in countries reporting data at the national level.RESULTS We retrieved information for 84 out of 194 countries around the world.We found a wide geographic variation in the incidence of T1D and a worldwide increase during the two periods.The largest contribution to this increase was observed in the youngest group of children with T1D,with a relative increase of almost double when comparing the two periods(P value=2.5×e-5).Twenty-six countries had information on the incidence of T1D at the national level for the two periods.There was a positive correlation between GDP and the incidence of T1D in both periods(Spearman correlation=0.52 from 1975-1999 and Spearman correlation=0.53 from 2000-2017).CONCLUSION The incidence increase was higher in the youngest group(0-4 years of age),and the highest incidences of T1D were found in wealthier countries.展开更多
The goal of this paper is to analyze the Finnish gross domestic product(GDP) and to find chaos in the Finnish GDP. We chose Finland where data has been available since 1975, because we needed the longest time series p...The goal of this paper is to analyze the Finnish gross domestic product(GDP) and to find chaos in the Finnish GDP. We chose Finland where data has been available since 1975, because we needed the longest time series possible. At first we estimated the time delay and the embedding dimension, which is needed for the Lyapunov exponent estimation and for the phase space reconstruction.Subsequently, we computed the largest Lyapunov exponent, which is one of the important indicators of chaos. Then we calculated the 0-1 test for chaos. Finally we computed the Hurst exponent by rescaled range analysis and by dispersional analysis. The Hurst exponent is a numerical estimate of the predictability of a time series. In the end, we executed a recurrent analysis and displayed recurrence plots of detrended GDP time series. The results indicated that chaotic behaviors obviously exist in GDP.展开更多
COVID-19 has become one of the critical health issues globally,which surfaced first in latter part of the year 2019.It is the topmost concern for many nations’governments as the contagious virus started mushrooming o...COVID-19 has become one of the critical health issues globally,which surfaced first in latter part of the year 2019.It is the topmost concern for many nations’governments as the contagious virus started mushrooming over adjacent regions of infected areas.In 1980,a vaccine called Bacillus Calmette-Guérin(BCG)was introduced for preventing tuberculosis and lung cancer.Countries that have made the BCG vaccine mandatory have witnessed a lesser COVID-19 fatality rate than the countries that have not made it compulsory.This paper’s initial research shows that the countries with a longtermcompulsory BCGvaccination system are less affected by COVID-19 than those without a BCG vaccination system.This paper discusses analytical data patterns for medical applications regarding COVID-19 impact on countries with mandatory BCG status on fatality rates.The paper has tackled numerous analytical challenges to realize the full potential of heterogeneous data.An analogy is drawn to demonstrate how other factors can affect fatality and infection rates other than BCG vaccination only,such as age groups affected,other diseases,and stringency index.The data of Spain,Portugal,and Germany have been taken for a case study of BCG impact analysis.展开更多
文摘Government leaders have struggled to reduce the infection and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)as well as to keep the economy and businesses open.There is a large variation of mortality and damage to economy among countries.One possible cause leading to the large variation is the manner in which countries have delt with COVID-19.Some countries or regions such as China,New Zealand,and Taiwan,acted quickly and aggressively by implementing border closures,lockdown,school closures,mass testing,etc.On the other hand,many European countries,United States,and Brazil delayed their decisions to implement these restrictions and measures.No study has assessed the correlation between gross domestic product(GDP)and COVID-19 mortality.In the present study,there was a negative correlation between GDP and COVID-19 mortality suggesting that countries that failed to control the virus(larger COVID-19 mortality)would see a larger decline in GDP.Governmental leaders should act fast and aggressively when making decisions because data shows that countries who have run after two hares have caught neither.Furthermore,citizens of each country need to do their own part by following guidelines and practicing social distancing and mask wearing,which are considered the most effective,easiest,and cheapest measures that can be taken,so that repeated lockdowns can be avoided.
文摘Governments influence the economy by changing the level and types of taxes, the extent and composition of spending, and the degree and form of borrowing. Governments directly and indirectly influence the way resources are used in the economy. Higher taxes, fees, and greater regulations can stymie businesses or entire industries and the resulting impact is reflected on the country’s economy status (strong or weak). The growth rate of GDP is often used as an indicator of the general health of the economy. In broad terms, an increase in real GDP is interpreted as a sign that the economy is doing well. So it is important to study and pay more attention to country’s GDP growth rate. In this paper, an intervention analysis approach was applied to Nigeria GDP data in order to evaluate the performances of military and civilian rules in the country. Data on Nigeria GDP were collected and subjected to interrupted (intervention) time series model. Based on the Alkaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and sigma<sup>2</sup> values, the interrupted time series model ARIMA (1, 1, 0) with exogenous variables (per capita per capita GDP, intervention, year and yearAfter) was identified as the best model amongst other competing models. It was observed that the intervention (civilian rule) was significant at the 10% level of significance in increasing the Nigeria GDP by 10B US$ on the average since 2005 till 2021 while controlling for the effects of other determinants. Also, the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) forecasts indicate that the Nigeria GDP will continue increasing during the civilian rule. As a result, changing from military rule to civilian rule in Nigeria significantly increased the GDP of the country.
文摘Governments influence the economy by changing the level and types of taxes, the extent and composition of spending, and the degree and form of borrowing. Governments directly and indirectly influence the way resources are used in the economy. Higher taxes, fees, and greater regulations can stymie businesses or entire industries and the resulting impact is reflected on the country’s economy status (strong or weak). The growth rate of GDP is often used as an indicator of the general health of the economy. In broad terms, an increase in real GDP is interpreted as a sign that the economy is doing well. So it is important to study and pay more attention to country’s GDP growth rate. In this paper, an intervention analysis approach was applied to Nigeria GDP data in order to evaluate the performances of military and civilian rules in the country. Data on Nigeria GDP were collected and subjected to interrupted (intervention) time series model. Based on the Alkaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and sigma<sup>2</sup> values, the interrupted time series model ARIMA (1, 1, 0) with exogenous variables (per capita per capita GDP, intervention, year and yearAfter) was identified as the best model amongst other competing models. It was observed that the intervention (civilian rule) was significant at the 10% level of significance in increasing the Nigeria GDP by 10B US$ on the average since 2005 till 2021 while controlling for the effects of other determinants. Also, the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) forecasts indicate that the Nigeria GDP will continue increasing during the civilian rule. As a result, changing from military rule to civilian rule in Nigeria significantly increased the GDP of the country.
文摘In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all the social wealthes are classified according to their structural type and occupational use. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated from each facility class separately. For many regions of the world, however, the vast amount of data required by this method is difficult or impossible to obtain. The traditional method is also unable to estimate quickly the loss from an unexpected disaster earthquake. It is difficult to give the necessary risk information to help the government to rescue and relief the earthquake disaster. This paper proposes a simple estimation method of earthquake loss based on macroscopic economical index of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population distribution data. A preliminary nonlinear relation among hazard loss, seismic intensity and social wealth was developed by means of some earthquake disaster records during 1980～1995. This method was applied to analyze several assumed earthquakes. The preliminary analysis results show that the new method is effective and reasonable for quick assessment of earthquake loss.
文摘Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. The number of nonlinear business cycle models use chaos theory to explain complex motion of the economy. Almost three years after the crisis, the G7 countries continue to be challenged with economic volatility. The global economy has slowed. Growth in the United States has weakened. In Europe, economic instability is generated by the financial and economic imbalances. Europe is gripped with financial strains from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area periphery. How these G7 economies confront their fiscal challenges will profoundly affect their economic stability. The basic aim of this paper is to provide a relatively simple chaotic economic growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos. This paper looks in more detail at the GDP growth stability issues in each of the G7 countries in the period 1990-2012 （Retrieved from http：//www, imf.org）. A key hypothesis of this work is based on the idea that the coefficient π =[p（s_p-i-n/pb-p_mb_m）] plays a crucial role in explaining local stability of the gross domestic product growth, where, p---the coefficient of labour productivity; p.,--the coefficient of the marginal labour productivity, sp-private saving rate;i--investment rate; b-percent of the gross domestic product which belongs to budget deficit; bm-marginal budget deficit coefficient; n-net capital outflow rate.
文摘Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutp ani village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (APM). Through the APM simulation in this study, all of forestland will be transferred into agricu ltural land in 2030 at the rate of 24% per year on the current productivity. And if the productivity of subsistence food crop is assumed to increase at the rate of 1%, the productivity of market crop and export crop increase at the rate of 2% annually, deforestation rate will decrease to 17% per year, but only 124 hm2 forest land will be left till 2038. The agriculture productivity is a very impor tant factor for the deforestation, so intensification of agriculture management is more important.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program(No.2021YFE0117300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42375090)+6 种基金Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Precision Measurement and Early Warning Technology for Urban Environmental Health Risks(No.ZDSYS20220606100604008)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(No.2021A1515110713)Guangdong University Research Project Science Team(No.2021KCXTD004)the Major Talent Project of Guangdong Province(No.2021QN020924)Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation,China(No.ZR2020QD012)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(Nos.KQTD20210811090048025,JCYJ20210324104604012 and JCYJ20220530115404009)supported by the Center for Computational Science and Engineering at Southern University of Science and Technology.
文摘Ozone production sensitivity is widely used to reveal the chemical dominant precursors of urban ozone rise.Here,we diagnose the impact of the decline in global human production activities level caused by the COVID-19 on ozone sensitivity through the ratio of formaldehyde(HCHO)and NO_(2)(FNR=HCHO/NO_(2))observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument.We use a relative uncertainty threshold to clean the satellite FNR,and our satellite FNR present a good correlation(R=0.6248)with U.S.Environmental Protection Agency observations.We found that the outbreak of the COVID-19 did not change the pattern of global ozone sensitivity,while the global regimes was transforming or strengthening to VOC-limited regimes due to the significant decline of human production activities levels.During the COVID-19,ozone sensitivity in Eastern China and East Africa continued to shift to VOC-limited regimes,while India,Western Europe and North America first moved to NOx-limited regimes,and then changed to VOC-limited regimes with the resumption of production and the increase in travel.The clustering results tell that urban ozone sensitivity tends to shift towards NOx-limited regimes as economic growing.The ozone formation in cities with lower FNR and per capita gross domestic product(GDP)are more sensitive to changes in VOCs,while cities with higher FNR and per capita GDP are more sensitive to variations in NOx.Cities with intermediate FNR and GDP are good evidence of the existence of transitional regimes.Our study identifies the driving role of urban economics in orienting the evolution of ozone sensitivity regimes.
基金supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program(Grant No.2023xjkk0101)the National Youth Talent Project(Grant No.E4150103)。
文摘The future increased frequency and intensity of heat waves(HWs)across China will exacerbate adverse effects on society and the environment.However,changes in socioeconomic exposure remain underexplored.In this study,climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),together with population and gross domestic product(GDP)projections were used to investigate projected heat stress and socioeconomic exposure across China and its eight subregions under four shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,SSP3–7.0,and SSP5–8.5)over three periods(2021–2040,2051–2070,and 2081–2100).Our results indicate a consistent upward trend in the Universal Thermal Climate Index(UTCI)across all scenarios,with intensifying increases over time,peaking at>6°C.This suggests a continuous increase in the number of extreme heat events(EHEs)in China.Population exposure to EHEs across the four UTCI thresholds(>26°C,>32°C,>38°C,and>46°C)shows an increasing trend.Projections indicate a∼14-fold increase nationwide,500-fold increase in Northwest China(NWC),and a 1000-fold in Southwest China(SWC2)under SSP5–8.5 by2081–2100 compared with current levels.The eastern and southeastern regions,especially the Yangtze River and Pearl River Delta,show significant GDP exposure increases under SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5.Population exposure is mainly driven by climatic effects under severe scenarios,whereas GDP exposure is influenced by interaction effects,particularly under SSP5–8.5 and during the 2090s.This study's findings offer actionable insights for targeted adaptation in China's diverse geographies.
文摘The last 35 years have been characterized, worldwide, for lack of economic growth and increasing inequality in income distribution and its concentration. This has resulted in increased poverty and falling purchasing power of the middle classes, which has become the most serious problem with which we enter the twenty-first century. Mexico has been no exception. This article covers the first part of the research I’m doing in the 9th. Researchers call for 2015-2016 of the De La Salle University Bajio in Leon, Mexico. In the second part I will discuss inequality in income deciles in which is statistically divided our population and the way in which the concentration of income in fewer hands is affecting the market performance. This research has required having historical series covering the last 57 years of economic and population growth in Mexico. Measure the evolution of gross domestic product (GDP) from the beginning of the presidential terms from 1959 to 2015. It has been problematic since in Mexico there are not series covering the entire period. I had to go to the World Bank data (WB) which provides them from 1960. We found discrepancies in GDP series between those of WB, International Monetary Fund (IMF), United Nations Organization (UNO) and the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI) from Mexico. The second difficulty appeared in the series of the population of our country. There are also discrepancies between census data and estimates of the same INEGI. Moreover, the series of WB and Penn World Table (PWT) also show differences between them. Converting the results of real GDP per capita to dollars had no difficulty due to information from the Mexican Central Bank (BM). The conversionto interccnational dollars as estimated by the purchasing power parity (PPP) was obtained from PWT 8.1.
基金Project (No. 2006AA120101) supported by the Hi-Tech Research and Development Program (863) of China
文摘Ecological compensation is becoming one of key and multidiscipline issues in the field of resources and environmental management. Considering the change relation between gross domestic product (GDP) and ecological capital (EC) based on remote sensing estimation, we construct a new quantitative estimate model for ecological compensation, using county as study unit, and determine standard value so as to evaluate ecological compensation from 2001 to 2004 in Zhejiang Province, China. Spatial differences of the ecological compensation were significant among all the counties or districts. This model fills up the gap in the field of quantitative evaluation of regional ecological compensation and provides a feasible way to reconcile the conflicts among benefits in the economic, social, and ecological sectors.
文摘AIM To evaluate the association between mortality-to-incidence ratios(MIRs) and health disparities.METHODS In this study, we used the GLOBOCAN 2012 database to obtain the cancer incidence and mortality data for 57 countries, and combined this information with the World Health Organization(WHO) rankings and total expenditures on health/gross domestic product(e/GDP). The associations between variables and MIRs were analyzed by linear regression analyses and the 57 countries were selected according to their data quality. RESULTS The more developed regions showed high gastric cancer incidence and mortality crude rates, but lower MIR values than the less developed regions(0.64 vs 0.80, respectively). Among six continents, Oceania had the lowest(0.60) and Africa had the highest(0.91) MIR. A good WHO ranking and a high e/GDP were significantly associated with low MIRs(P = 0.001 and P = 0.001, respectively).CONCLUSION The MIR variation for gastric cancer would predict regional health disparities.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41877518)the Key Special Program of Logistic Scientific Research of PLA(BLJ18J005)the Key Support Objects of Excellent Talent Pool of Military Medical University。
文摘The potential association between medical resources and the proportion of oldest-old(90 years of age and above)in the Chinese population was examined,and we found that the higher proportion of oldest-old was associated with the higher number of beds in hospitals and health centers.
文摘As the traffic distribution in China mainland is far from uniform, a new traffic model in China mainland is presented on the basis of per-capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and density of population. Based on this characteristic traffic model, a new Traffic Dependent Dynamic Channel Allocation and Reservation (TDDCAR) technique is proposed, the simulation model is built, and the strategies' performance is evaluated through computer simulation. The simulation results show that, compared to the conventional Fixed Channel Allocation (FCA), TDDCAR estimates the traffic conditions in every spot beam and frequently adjusts the traffic according to current traffic conditions. It has achieved a significant improvement in new call blocking probability, handover blocking probability, and fair index, particularly, in heavy traffic conditions. The building of traffic model in China mainland and the analysis of the simulation results has been a key foundation for the study of resource allocation schemes in the future.
文摘China’s swift and substantial economic growth over the past 20 years has made the country one of the top industrial powers in the world, second only the United States. From the perspective of ecology and the impact on the environment produced by economic and industrial growth, the exports that have driven rapid growth have also resulted in an alarming level of environmental pollution in major Chinese cities. Research has shown that the Chinese government’s investment in bringing down pollution levels has been insufficient and ineffective. The monetary amount allocated for pollution reduction has barely reached 0.15% of the country’s GDP and has failed to meaningfully reverse the effects of industrialization, including increased exports and economic growth rates affecting China’s ecology. The present study investigated China’s ecological situation in terms of the industrial production that has generated its level of exports, with special focus on problems related to water, air, and solid waste. An econometric analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between the main variables. The exports and GDP (dependent variable), air pollution, water pollution, and industrial solid waste (independent variables) were provided by the Institute of Statistics and the Environment Institute of China for this study. The data was managed in Econometric Eviews 7.0 software and yielded an adjusted R<sup>2 </sup>of 96.09% (high correlation) with an interesting correlation between the exports and three independent variables;after subsequent variable analysis, we found that investments in water and industrial solid waste were not significant (i.e., that said investments have failed to solve the pollution problem). It is necessary to review the Chinese investment policy with special attention to these variables to appropriately respond to China’s ecological crisis.
基金Supported by doctoral scholarship (Natalia Gomez-Lopera) from Colciencias,No.727
文摘BACKGROUND The global epidemiology of type 1 diabetes(T1D)is not yet well known,as no precise data are available from many countries.T1D is,however,characterized by an important variation in incidences among countries and a dramatic increase of these incidences during the last decades,predominantly in younger children.In the United States and Europe,the increase has been associated with the gross domestic product(GDP)per capita.In our previous systematic review,geographical variation of incidence was correlated with socio-economic factors.AIM To investigate variation in the incidence of T1D in age categories and search to what extent these variations correlated with the GDP per capita.METHODS A systematic review was performed to retrieve information about the global incidence of T1D among those younger than 14 years of age.The study was carried out according to the PRISMA recommendations.For the analysis,the incidence was organized in the periods:1975-1999 and 2000-2017.We searched the incidence of T1D in the age-groups 0-4,5-9 and 10-14.We compared the incidences in countries for which information was available for the two periods.We obtained the GDP from the World Bank.We analysed the relationship between the incidence of T1D with the GDP in countries reporting data at the national level.RESULTS We retrieved information for 84 out of 194 countries around the world.We found a wide geographic variation in the incidence of T1D and a worldwide increase during the two periods.The largest contribution to this increase was observed in the youngest group of children with T1D,with a relative increase of almost double when comparing the two periods(P value=2.5×e-5).Twenty-six countries had information on the incidence of T1D at the national level for the two periods.There was a positive correlation between GDP and the incidence of T1D in both periods(Spearman correlation=0.52 from 1975-1999 and Spearman correlation=0.53 from 2000-2017).CONCLUSION The incidence increase was higher in the youngest group(0-4 years of age),and the highest incidences of T1D were found in wealthier countries.
文摘The goal of this paper is to analyze the Finnish gross domestic product(GDP) and to find chaos in the Finnish GDP. We chose Finland where data has been available since 1975, because we needed the longest time series possible. At first we estimated the time delay and the embedding dimension, which is needed for the Lyapunov exponent estimation and for the phase space reconstruction.Subsequently, we computed the largest Lyapunov exponent, which is one of the important indicators of chaos. Then we calculated the 0-1 test for chaos. Finally we computed the Hurst exponent by rescaled range analysis and by dispersional analysis. The Hurst exponent is a numerical estimate of the predictability of a time series. In the end, we executed a recurrent analysis and displayed recurrence plots of detrended GDP time series. The results indicated that chaotic behaviors obviously exist in GDP.
文摘COVID-19 has become one of the critical health issues globally,which surfaced first in latter part of the year 2019.It is the topmost concern for many nations’governments as the contagious virus started mushrooming over adjacent regions of infected areas.In 1980,a vaccine called Bacillus Calmette-Guérin(BCG)was introduced for preventing tuberculosis and lung cancer.Countries that have made the BCG vaccine mandatory have witnessed a lesser COVID-19 fatality rate than the countries that have not made it compulsory.This paper’s initial research shows that the countries with a longtermcompulsory BCGvaccination system are less affected by COVID-19 than those without a BCG vaccination system.This paper discusses analytical data patterns for medical applications regarding COVID-19 impact on countries with mandatory BCG status on fatality rates.The paper has tackled numerous analytical challenges to realize the full potential of heterogeneous data.An analogy is drawn to demonstrate how other factors can affect fatality and infection rates other than BCG vaccination only,such as age groups affected,other diseases,and stringency index.The data of Spain,Portugal,and Germany have been taken for a case study of BCG impact analysis.
