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Difference of Nitrogen Uptake and Use Efficiency in Conventional Indica Rice Cultivars with Different Nitrogen Use Efficiency for Grain Output 被引量:3
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作者 周娟 李进前 +4 位作者 张彪 张传胜 张岳芳 王余龙 董桂春 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2008年第6期68-73,141,共7页
[Objective] The study aimed to confirm difference of nitrogen uptake and used efficiency with different nitrogen use efficiency for grain output (NUEg) types of indica rice.[Method] 88 and 122 conventional indica rice... [Objective] The study aimed to confirm difference of nitrogen uptake and used efficiency with different nitrogen use efficiency for grain output (NUEg) types of indica rice.[Method] 88 and 122 conventional indica rice cultivars were solution-cultured in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Dry matter weight (including root system, culm and sheath, leaves, panicle), nitrogen content of different organs, yield and its components were measured. The tested rice cultivars were classified into 6 types (i.e. A, B, C, D, E and F, A was the lowest, and F was the highest) based on their NUEg level by the MinSSw method.[Result](1)Difference of NUEg of the cultivars used in this study were very large; (2) No significant difference of N content at heading stage was observed among different NUEg types of indica rice. In the cultivars with higher NUEg, however, N content in leaf, stem-sheath and entire rice plant were lower at mature stage. (3)Cultivars with higher NUEg were characterized with lower N uptake before heading and at mature stage; (4) Cultivars with higher NUEg were characterized with higher N use efficiency in biomass production and harvest index. [Conclusion] The cultivars with higher NUEg showed lower N uptake and N content, while nitrogen use efficiency was higher. 展开更多
关键词 Conventional INDICA rice CULTIVARS NITROGEN content for grain output NITROGEN UPTAKE NITROGEN use efficiency
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Agricultural Policy, Climate Factors and Grain Output: Evidence From Household Survey Data in Rural China 被引量:15
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作者 CHEN Yong-fu WU Zhi-gang +3 位作者 ZHU Tie-hui YANG Lei MAGuo-ying Chien Hsiao-ping 《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第1期169-183,共15页
This paper estimates a stochastic frontier function using a panel data set that includes 4 961 farmer households for the period of 2005-2009 to decompose the growth of grain production and the total factor productivi... This paper estimates a stochastic frontier function using a panel data set that includes 4 961 farmer households for the period of 2005-2009 to decompose the growth of grain production and the total factor productivity (TFP) growth at the farmer level. The empirical results show that the major contributor to the grain output growth for farmers is input growth and that its average contribution accounts for 60.92% of farmer’s grain production growth in the period of 2006-2009, whereas the average contributions sourced from TFP growth and residuals are only 17.30 and 21.78%, respectively. The growth of intermediate inputs is a top contributor with an average contribution of 44.46%, followed by the planted area (18.16%), investment in fixed assets (1.05%), and labor input (-2.75%), indicating that the contribution from the farmer’s input growth is mainly due to the growth of intermediate inputs and that the decline in labor inputs has become an obstacle for farmers in seeking grain output growth. Among the elements consisting of TFP growth, the contribution of technical progress is the largest (32.04%), followed by grain subsidies (8.55%), the average monthly temperature (4.26%), the average monthly precipitation (-0.88%), the adjusted scale effect (-5.66%), and growth in technical efficiency (-21.01%). In general, the contribution of climate factors and agricultural policy factor are positive and significant. 展开更多
关键词 decomposition of grain output growth total factor productivity (TFP) stochastic frontier production function Chinese farmer households
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An explanation of labor migration and grain output growth:Findings of a case study in eastern Tibetan Plateau 被引量:3
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作者 阎建忠 张镱锂 +1 位作者 花晓波 杨亮 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第4期484-500,共17页
Although there has been rapid rural-urban migration in rural China since the 1980s, the total grain production of China saw a continuous increase. As of today, the relationship between labor migration and grain output... Although there has been rapid rural-urban migration in rural China since the 1980s, the total grain production of China saw a continuous increase. As of today, the relationship between labor migration and grain output growth remains partial and contradictory. The main aim of this empirical study is to examine some specific measures adopted by peasants to deal with labor shortage and maintain grain output growth. Using tracking survey, participatory rural appraisal methods, and land plot investigation, we investigate 274 households and 1405 arable land plots in four villages in two stages in Jinchuan county, southwestern China. The results show that continuous emigration of labor from the four villages caused the abandon- ment of a small amount of land, decreased labor intensity, and reduced multiple cropping index, shifting from "corn-wheat" multiple cropping pattern to the "corn" cropping pattern, which means labor shortage in some households. At the same time, owing to surplus labor in the villages, the peasants utilize a series of means to offset the negative impacts of labor migration on grain output, such as cropland transfer, labor exchange in the busy seasons, and the substitution of capital and technology for labor. The econometric analysis also shows that labor migration boosts grain production. This study provides a reasonable explanation of grain output growth under rural-urban migration. 展开更多
关键词 labor migration land use change labor intensity capital intensity grain output
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Weight Determining of Factors Influencing Grain Output Based on Entropy Weight Method 被引量:3
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作者 LI Jun Department of Management,Xijing University,Xi’an 710123,China 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2012年第3期7-9,共3页
This article selects 8 main factors(the number of rural employees,total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area of crops,growing area of grain crops,fertilizer consumption,electricity consumption in ... This article selects 8 main factors(the number of rural employees,total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area of crops,growing area of grain crops,fertilizer consumption,electricity consumption in rural areas,area affected and area covered) as the factors influencing grain output,and offers the method of determining weight of factors influencing grain output using entropy weight method.According to the relevant data in the period 1985-2005,we analyze the weight of factors influencing grain output in China by example.The results show that the electricity consumption in rural areas has the greatest impact on grain output,followed by total power of agricultural machinery,fertilizer consumption and area covered.To increase grain output,we must enhance the degree of mechanization,free people from the former process of direct cultivation,strengthen water conservancy construction,and do a good job in disaster prevention and mitigation. 展开更多
关键词 grain output ENTROPY WEIGHT method Factors WEIGHT
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Input-Occupancy-Output Technique and Its Applications in China' s Grain Output Prediction and Township and Village Enterprises Study
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作者 Chen Xikang Yang Cuihong(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS, Beijing 100080) 《Science Foundation in China》 CAS 2003年第1期37-41,共5页
Under the support of National Natural Science Foundation of China including international cooperative research project, key project and other project, professor Chen Xikang from Academy of Mathematics and Systems Scie... Under the support of National Natural Science Foundation of China including international cooperative research project, key project and other project, professor Chen Xikang from Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, together with his colleagues, put forward in-put-occupancy-output technique and then used it in national grain output prediction approach. The main achievements are as follows: 展开更多
关键词 Input-Occupancy-output Technique China's grain output Prediction Township and Village Enterprises
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Policy Suggestions for the Slowdown in Per Capital Output of Grain Growth in China
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作者 Yang Yang 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2013年第10期48-51,共4页
China is a large agricultural and the most populous country, so it is a crucial importance for the food security. The basic situation of food in our country is self-sufficiency, a certain amount of imports and reserve... China is a large agricultural and the most populous country, so it is a crucial importance for the food security. The basic situation of food in our country is self-sufficiency, a certain amount of imports and reserves. The output of grain in our country has increased annually, however, as a result of policy adjustments and other factors like environmental pollution, together with a large population base and the trend of excessively popu- lous growth, the growth of grain output is relatively slow, which will be harmful for our grain security as well as the healthy development of the na- tional economy. In this case, several solutions could be tried, such as improving the level of science and technology, adjusting industrial policies and controlling environmental pollution. Besides, we ought to strongly advocate thrifty behavior to increase income and reduce expenditure. 展开更多
关键词 Per capita output of grain SLOWDOWN Policy suggestions China
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高标准农田建设政策的农民增收效应 被引量:1
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作者 刘辉 杨玲 《粮油食品科技》 北大核心 2025年第2期220-228,共9页
高标准农田建设政策是增强农业综合生产能力的重要举措,为农民增收创造了条件。聚焦于2005—2022年中国31个省份的面板数据,依托准自然实验的逻辑框架,采用连续型双重差分模型和两阶段估计方法,深入剖析高标准农田建设政策对农民增收的... 高标准农田建设政策是增强农业综合生产能力的重要举措,为农民增收创造了条件。聚焦于2005—2022年中国31个省份的面板数据,依托准自然实验的逻辑框架,采用连续型双重差分模型和两阶段估计方法,深入剖析高标准农田建设政策对农民增收的因果效应及影响机制。结果表明:(1)高标准农田建设政策具有显著的农民增收效应,呈现逐年递增的态势;(2)东、中、西、东北部地区的高标准农田建设政策正向促进农民增收,而水田和牧区的并不具有农民增收效应;(3)高标准农田建设政策主要以带动粮食增产和农业生产性服务业发展助力农民增收。综上,建议制定区域非均衡性政策,完善种粮补贴政策和重视农业生产性服务业发展,发挥其农民增收效应。 展开更多
关键词 高标准农田 农民增收 粮食产量 农业生产性服务业 政策效果
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农业保险财政补贴政策对粮食产出的激励效应研究 被引量:1
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作者 郭晓鸣 陈嘉婧 +1 位作者 袁佳仪 王韧 《商学研究》 2025年第1期92-104,共13页
政策性农业保险作为重要的风险管理手段,是稳住农业基本盘、助力粮食安全生产的重要抓手。本文以开展农业保险财政补贴政策试点为准自然实验,利用2002—2021年我国省域面板数据检验农业保险财政补贴政策对粮食产出的激励效应。结果表明... 政策性农业保险作为重要的风险管理手段,是稳住农业基本盘、助力粮食安全生产的重要抓手。本文以开展农业保险财政补贴政策试点为准自然实验,利用2002—2021年我国省域面板数据检验农业保险财政补贴政策对粮食产出的激励效应。结果表明:实行农业保险财政补贴政策对粮食产出具有显著的激励作用;机制分析表明,粮食增产效应是通过增加粮食单产和改变种植结构实现的;异质性分析表明,补贴政策对不同种类和地区的粮食作物的激励作用存在差异;进一步分析发现,不同层级的保费补贴对粮食产出的作用机制有所不同,中央保费补贴主要通过提升粮食单产实现粮食产出水平的提升,地方保费补贴主要通过调整作物种植结构实现粮食产出水平的提升。本文研究结论强调了提高农业保险风险保障水平对政策性农业保险发展的重要作用,也验证了不同层级保费补贴对粮食产出的作用机制的差异性,并据此提出相关政策建议,以最大化农业保险财政补贴政策对粮食产出水平的激励效应。 展开更多
关键词 政策性农业保险 农业保险财政补贴政策 粮食产出 激励效应
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河北省农业保险发展对粮食稳产增产的作用效果评估研究
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作者 祝丽云 赵君彦 +2 位作者 胡建辉 董静怡 李彤 《农业展望》 2025年第3期3-11,共9页
政策性农业保险作为粮食生产风险管理工具,对稳定粮食生产具有重要作用。基于2013—2022年中国产粮大省河北省11个市的面板数据,深入分析了河北省农业保险发展水平,准确评估了农业保险发展对粮食稳产增产的作用效果。研究结果表明,样本... 政策性农业保险作为粮食生产风险管理工具,对稳定粮食生产具有重要作用。基于2013—2022年中国产粮大省河北省11个市的面板数据,深入分析了河北省农业保险发展水平,准确评估了农业保险发展对粮食稳产增产的作用效果。研究结果表明,样本期间内河北省农业保险密度和广度的增长速度不断提高,但农业保险深度的增长速度呈现放缓趋势,且各市农业保险发展水平存在较大差异;农业保险密度、深度和广度均显著正向影响粮食产量,但由于农业保险有效需求不高,保额设定不科学、费率厘定不精准以及保费补贴效能不足导致农业保险发展对粮食稳产增产的作用程度有限。为进一步优化河北省农业保险政策,提升其对粮食产出的激励效果,应注重加强农业保险产品和服务创新,因地制宜设计保额与费率,优化农业保险补贴制度,进而全面推进农业保险转型升级。 展开更多
关键词 农业保险 粮食产出 保障水平 固定效应模型 面板数据
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秦汉的粮食产量与农户生计
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作者 代国玺 《云南社会科学》 北大核心 2025年第1期128-140,共13页
秦汉时期粮食的常见高产可达到每市亩产粟247公斤,秦和西汉的平均亩产范围,折合今制也在每市亩产粟74公斤至123公斤之间。正是基于这种较高水平的粮食生产能力,西汉人口才能从初期的约2000万增长到末年的约6000万。只是这一时期粮食产... 秦汉时期粮食的常见高产可达到每市亩产粟247公斤,秦和西汉的平均亩产范围,折合今制也在每市亩产粟74公斤至123公斤之间。正是基于这种较高水平的粮食生产能力,西汉人口才能从初期的约2000万增长到末年的约6000万。只是这一时期粮食产量的不稳定与不均衡性相当突出。这背后有着独特的历史原因,即此时的粮食产量严重依赖于土地质量和气候条件。粮食产量的不稳定和不均衡导致了小农经济的脆弱性。受限于技术,秦汉小农因抵御灾害的能力弱而容易破产,庄园经济则因其对灾害形成了“社会性对冲”,故能接替小农经济,成为中古时期的重要经济形态。 展开更多
关键词 粮食亩产量 小农经济 土地质量 社会性对冲
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高标准农田建设对粮食增产的作用机制与影响研究 被引量:2
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作者 刘文发 韩汉君 《河南社会科学》 北大核心 2025年第5期109-117,共9页
高标准农田建设是国家“藏粮于地”战略的重要政策实践,具有重大的现实意义和深远的战略价值。研究发现,高标准农田建设形成了“高标准农田建设→风险降低、单产提高→单产收益增加⇔扩大规模经营⇔技术提升扩散→粮食增产”的保障粮食安... 高标准农田建设是国家“藏粮于地”战略的重要政策实践,具有重大的现实意义和深远的战略价值。研究发现,高标准农田建设形成了“高标准农田建设→风险降低、单产提高→单产收益增加⇔扩大规模经营⇔技术提升扩散→粮食增产”的保障粮食安全的内生驱动机制;高标准农田建设显著推动了粮食总产量的增长,在更换核心解释变量、排除其他政策影响、进行安慰剂检验之后,结论依旧稳健。异质性分析发现,在土地流转率较高、人均耕地面积较低的地区,高标准农田的增产效应表现更好,这表明土地资源的集约化利用和优化配置能够显著提升农业生产效率,促进粮食增产;提升农田资源禀赋、提升并扩散粮食种植技术、激发农民种粮积极性与提升自然灾害抵御能力,是高标准农田增产效应的主要机制。进一步研究发现,高标准农田建设通过增强农田抗灾减灾能力显著提升了粮食生产稳定度,同时在农药和化肥使用量持续减少的背景下,仍能维持其增产作用,从而有效确保了粮食增产的稳定性与持续性。 展开更多
关键词 高标准农田 粮食安全 粮食产量 粮食单产
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化肥减量有助于提升粮食绿色生产率吗?
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作者 康炜 刘辉 《商业经济》 2025年第4期95-97,188,共4页
化肥减量对实现农业可持续发展具有重要意义。使用2003—2021年全国省级面板数据,借助非期望产出超效率SBM模型计算粮食绿色生产率,通过面板Tobi t模型探讨化肥减量对粮食绿色生产率的影响。结果表明,全国粮食绿色生产率变化趋势呈“U”... 化肥减量对实现农业可持续发展具有重要意义。使用2003—2021年全国省级面板数据,借助非期望产出超效率SBM模型计算粮食绿色生产率,通过面板Tobi t模型探讨化肥减量对粮食绿色生产率的影响。结果表明,全国粮食绿色生产率变化趋势呈“U”型,粮食三大功能区的粮食绿色生产率差距明显;化肥减量显著促进粮食绿色生产率提升;异质性分析中,化肥减量对粮食绿色生产率影响具有地区差异。 展开更多
关键词 化肥减量 粮食绿色生产率 非期望产出 面板Tobit模型
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基于文本生成的多粒度评论情感分析
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作者 张佳威 王中卿 陈嘉沥 《计算机科学》 北大核心 2025年第10期239-246,共8页
随着社交媒体和在线评论平台的兴起,自动化的情感分析成为了理解公众情绪、消费者偏好及市场趋势的关键工具。传统的情感分析方法往往使用分类模型关注于提取文本的总体情绪倾向,忽视了评论中可能蕴含的复杂且多维度的情感信息。针对这... 随着社交媒体和在线评论平台的兴起,自动化的情感分析成为了理解公众情绪、消费者偏好及市场趋势的关键工具。传统的情感分析方法往往使用分类模型关注于提取文本的总体情绪倾向,忽视了评论中可能蕴含的复杂且多维度的情感信息。针对这一问题,提出了一种基于文本生成的多粒度评论情感分析模型,旨在细致地捕捉评论文本中方面级的情感和文档级的情感。同时,构建了一种结构化输出格式,其同时包含评论文本针对不同方面的情感标签和评论文本的总体情感标签。与传统的分类模型相比,所提模型通过不同的生成方式更全面地理解和反映了文本的情感结构,实现了对评论中多方面情感信息和总体情感的抽取和分类。实验结果表明,所提模型在总体情感和方面情感的识别中优于常规的分类方法,较Bert+LSTM模型F1值提升了4.4%。 展开更多
关键词 自然语言处理 文本生成 结构化输出 多粒度 评论情感分析
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基于超效率Output-DEA模型的主产区粮食生产能力评价 被引量:21
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作者 刘宁 《软科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2011年第3期79-83,共5页
应用超效率Output-DEA模型,对我国2008年13个粮食主产省区的粮食生产能力进行了研究。结果表明,主产区处于技术有效的省份仅有4个,其超效率值存在较大差距。多数省区技术无效率是规模效率低造成的。如果能够提高无效率省区的技术效率,... 应用超效率Output-DEA模型,对我国2008年13个粮食主产省区的粮食生产能力进行了研究。结果表明,主产区处于技术有效的省份仅有4个,其超效率值存在较大差距。多数省区技术无效率是规模效率低造成的。如果能够提高无效率省区的技术效率,发挥有效率省份的生产潜力,对提升全国的粮食生产能力将产生十分明显的效果。各无效率省区还存在投入的冗余,减少这些投入冗余对于降低粮食生产成本具有重要作用。我国政府应该把提高粮食生产效率作为粮食政策的首要目标,促进粮食生产区域的合理布局,优化粮食生产支持政策。 展开更多
关键词 超效率output-DEA模型 粮食主产区 粮食生产能力
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基于数据分析的农业机械化与粮食产出的关系研究
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作者 赵顾 《中国农机装备》 2025年第8期129-132,共4页
基于2023年中国31个省级行政区的统计数据,选取农业机械总动力、耕地面积、播种面积、化肥施用量等关键指标,构建了多元线性回归模型,系统分析了农业机械化对粮食产量的影响。研究结果表明,农业机械总动力和播种面积与粮食产出呈显著正... 基于2023年中国31个省级行政区的统计数据,选取农业机械总动力、耕地面积、播种面积、化肥施用量等关键指标,构建了多元线性回归模型,系统分析了农业机械化对粮食产量的影响。研究结果表明,农业机械总动力和播种面积与粮食产出呈显著正相关,而耕地灌溉面积和化肥使用量的影响在统计学上不显著。研究结果从数据驱动的角度为农业现代化发展路径提供了实证支持,并为相关政策制定提供了理论参考。 展开更多
关键词 农业机械化 粮食产量 数据驱动 回归分析 统计建模
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不同耕作方式对玉米籽粒品质及产量的影响
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作者 王雪霞 《农业技术与装备》 2025年第7期154-156,共3页
以河北省秦皇岛市青龙满族自治县为试验区域,以强硕68玉米品种为供试材料,系统探讨了常规旋耕(CK)、深松35 cm+免耕(T_(1))、深松35 cm+旋耕25 cm(T_(2))、灭茬耙(T_(3))及免耕(T_(4))5种耕作方式对玉米籽粒品质及产量的影响。结果表明... 以河北省秦皇岛市青龙满族自治县为试验区域,以强硕68玉米品种为供试材料,系统探讨了常规旋耕(CK)、深松35 cm+免耕(T_(1))、深松35 cm+旋耕25 cm(T_(2))、灭茬耙(T_(3))及免耕(T_(4))5种耕作方式对玉米籽粒品质及产量的影响。结果表明,深松处理(T_(1)和T_(2))显著提高了玉米产量和籽粒蛋白质含量;免耕因播种密度不足导致产量最低,产量排序为T_(1)>T_(2)>T_(3)>CK>T_(4),其中T1处理产量达5384.52 kg/hm^(2),较CK增产13.59%;籽粒品质方面,T1处理蛋白质含量最高(15.49%),CK处理的淀粉含量(34.20%)显著优于其他处理。研究结论为青龙满族自治县玉米高产优质栽培提供了理论依据。 展开更多
关键词 耕作方式 玉米 籽粒品质 产量
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重度镉污染下的玉米安全生产试验研究
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作者 陈永鹏 赵玉文 《园艺与种苗》 2025年第5期75-77,79,共4页
随着工业化和农业现代化进程的加快,土壤镉污染问题日益严峻,对农作物安全生产构成了严重威胁。本研究聚焦重度镉污染土壤条件下的玉米安全生产,利用田间试验与室内分析相结合的方法,系统探究了不同改良措施(如土壤调理剂添加、种植模... 随着工业化和农业现代化进程的加快,土壤镉污染问题日益严峻,对农作物安全生产构成了严重威胁。本研究聚焦重度镉污染土壤条件下的玉米安全生产,利用田间试验与室内分析相结合的方法,系统探究了不同改良措施(如土壤调理剂添加、种植模式优化等)对玉米生长发育、镉吸收累积特征以及籽粒品质的影响。结果表明,特定的土壤调理剂能够显著降低土壤镉的生物有效性,减少玉米对镉的吸收,使籽粒的镉含量符合食品安全标准。同时,合理的种植模式调整可进一步改善玉米生长微环境,提高玉米产量与品质。 展开更多
关键词 镉污染 玉米 产量 籽粒品质 安全生产
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The changing regional distribution of grain production in China in the 21st century 被引量:9
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作者 YIN Peihong FANG Xiuqi +1 位作者 TIAN Qing MA Yuling 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2006年第4期396-404,共9页
This paper examines the changing regional distribution of grain production in China. Based on the analysis of data from county statistics for the period 2000-2003, major differences in the main grain-output regions in... This paper examines the changing regional distribution of grain production in China. Based on the analysis of data from county statistics for the period 2000-2003, major differences in the main grain-output regions in China can be observed. The main grain-producing areas have shifted from the south to the north of China. New grain production regions have been also added to westem China since the late 1990s. The per capita grain consumption in one third of China's main grain-producing counties has fallen below 400 kg; most of these areas are located in southern China. In the new millennium, Northeast China, the central-south North China, and the add and semi-arid regions of Northwest China produced three quarters of the surplus grains. Most of these areas are located in regions susceptible to environmental change. The amount of grain production in these regions shows high fluctuations. It is argued here that fi.trther studies of recent environmental changes as well as a risk assessment of China's food security in main grain-output regions are needed. 展开更多
关键词 grain production main grain-output regions regional pattern regional differences China
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FORECAST OF CHINA'S GRAINPRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT AND ITSSELF-SUPPORT RATE ANALYSIS
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作者 陈锡康 王海建 郭菊娥 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 1997年第2期97-105,共9页
This far stern difficulhes and challenges fatal by the dev ofadn P in etna. to the bac national snon of China and the of and min the world market, China must meet the and Inainly by her own production. Using the input... This far stern difficulhes and challenges fatal by the dev ofadn P in etna. to the bac national snon of China and the of and min the world market, China must meet the and Inainly by her own production. Using the input output and system edence metal, this makesa foast abbot China’s glain output, grain and allsupport rate in the year 2030. 展开更多
关键词 grain output FORECAST self-support rate INPUT-OCCUPANCY-output techniques system SCIENCE methods
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China’s grain production: status and prospects
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作者 姜长云 张晓敏 张艳平 《China Economist》 2009年第4期103-111,共9页
In this paper, we first look back at China’s grain production since reform and opening up and review the main factors of grain production at different stages. Secondly we find that the improvement of the per unit yie... In this paper, we first look back at China’s grain production since reform and opening up and review the main factors of grain production at different stages. Secondly we find that the improvement of the per unit yield has become a major factor in the increase of grain production, and that corn has become a major grain production support variety; compared with the other varieties, paddy rice is most vulnerable in production; grain production has increasingly become dependant on scientific and technological progress and the role of infrastructure. Thirdly, the transformation of low-yielding fields in the future, the development of reserve land resources and acceleration of scientific and technological progress – these factors together promote China's great potential for grain production; but through adjusting variety structure to promote grain production is nearly impossible. Finally, the main constraints of China’s future grain production are as follows: reduction of arable land and water shortages is becoming increasingly constrained; agricultural comparative advantage is low; opportunity cost is high and accelerating at the same time; and the uncertainties of (1) whether the agricultural inputs by government at all levels of can significantly increase the intensity; (2) whether support of the reform of grain production and systems can achieve breakthrough; and (3) whether the risk of the development of grain production can be effectively prevented. On this basis, we draw the relevant conclusions and policy recommendations. 展开更多
关键词 grain output YIELD potential RESTRAINTS
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