Land use in arid and semi-arid regions has a substantial effect on climate,environment,and biodiversity,thereby projecting the spatiotemporal changes in land use and the subsequent effects.This study employed the loca...Land use in arid and semi-arid regions has a substantial effect on climate,environment,and biodiversity,thereby projecting the spatiotemporal changes in land use and the subsequent effects.This study employed the locally calibrated Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model,which coupled system dynamics with cellular automata and integrated an artificial neural network algorithm and a roulette wheel selection mechanism.We projected future land use(2020–2100)dynamics of Lanzhou,a typical river valley city in Northwest China,under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5).The simulation results were validated and subsequently reclassified using the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme(IGBP)system to produce a dataset suitable for driving climatic and environmental models.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,urban and built-up land expanded consistently,whereas irrigated cropland and pasture as well as grassland contracted continuously.Conversely,the SSP5-8.5 scenario was characterized by a contraction of urban and built-up land,and relative stability of irrigated cropland and pasture as well as grassland.The SSP2-4.5 scenario presented a more complex trade-off,where urban and built-up land and grassland increased first and then decreased,whereas irrigated cropland and pasture followed an opposite trajectory.A significant inverse relationship between urban and built-up land and irrigated cropland and pasture was observed under all scenarios,underscoring the fundamental spatial competition that prevailed in this land-constrained valley city.Furthermore,the negative correlation of grassland with urban and built-up land,coupled with the positive correlation of grassland with irrigated cropland and pasture under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,indicated an evolution from broad confrontation to intricate internal trade-offs within the urban–agricultural–ecological system.This study underscored the critical influence of regional topographic and hydrological constraints on land-use evolution in arid regions,providing guidance for water resource management and ecosystem protection in Lanzhou,with applications for sustainable land-use planning in other arid and semi-arid river valley cities.展开更多
Earth system can be categorized into three parts, solid Earth system, surface Earth system, and Sun-Earth space system. These three subsystems not only have mutual transmission and coupling relationships in both energ...Earth system can be categorized into three parts, solid Earth system, surface Earth system, and Sun-Earth space system. These three subsystems not only have mutual transmission and coupling relationships in both energy and matter but also involve multiple scales from microscopic to macroscopic. Earth system science is characterized by its globality and unity with a holistic view and a systematic view at multiple scales in both space and time. It focuses not only on the physical, chemical and biological interactions between various geospheres but also on the properties, behaviors, processes, and mechanisms of the entire Earth and its spheres. Although significant progress has been made in the study of internal disciplines of these three subsystems,there is still insufficient understanding of their overall behavior and interactions between individuals, thus facing challenges of different types and levels. The solid Earth system is composed of the crust, mantle, and core. Existing observational techniques struggle to penetrate deep into the mantle, making direct observation and data acquisition difficult;the extreme environments within Earth, such as high temperature, high pressure, and strong magnetic fields, also pose great challenges to observational equipment and scientific experiments. The surface Earth system is an open complex mega-system, in which there are complex interactions and feedback mechanisms among its geospheres(such as atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, pedosphere and lithosphere), leading to difficulties in understanding of its overall behavior and long-term evolution. Biological activities have become increasingly significant in affecting the surface Earth system. The coupling between the internal and external Earth systems becomes more complex. Distinguishing and quantifying the impacts of Earth spherical interactions and biological activities on the surface Earth system is a major challenge. The Sun-Earth space system involves multiple physical processes such as solar activity, Earth's magnetic field, atmosphere, and space weather. Solar activity significantly affects the Earth's space environment, but existing observational and reconstruction methods and prediction models still lack precision and timeliness.Thus it is important to improve the prediction capability of solar activity and reduce the impact of space weather disasters. How to cross different scales and establish coupled models of multiple physical processes is a significant challenge in the study of the Sun-Earth space system. Because the various processes and phenomena within and between these three Earth subsystems often span multiple scales in both space and time and exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, understanding their behaviors and processes becomes complex and variable, posing great challenges for theoretical modelling and numerical simulation. Therefore,the study of Earth system science requires in-depth interdisciplinary integration to jointly reveal the basic laws and operating mechanisms of Earth system.展开更多
基金supported by the Soft Science Special Project of Gansu Basic Research Plan(25JRZA206)the Longyuan Youth Talent Project of Gansu Province(ZHU Rong)+1 种基金the Innovation Development Special Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2025J036)the Program of the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CSFSE-KF-2402).
文摘Land use in arid and semi-arid regions has a substantial effect on climate,environment,and biodiversity,thereby projecting the spatiotemporal changes in land use and the subsequent effects.This study employed the locally calibrated Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model,which coupled system dynamics with cellular automata and integrated an artificial neural network algorithm and a roulette wheel selection mechanism.We projected future land use(2020–2100)dynamics of Lanzhou,a typical river valley city in Northwest China,under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5).The simulation results were validated and subsequently reclassified using the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme(IGBP)system to produce a dataset suitable for driving climatic and environmental models.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,urban and built-up land expanded consistently,whereas irrigated cropland and pasture as well as grassland contracted continuously.Conversely,the SSP5-8.5 scenario was characterized by a contraction of urban and built-up land,and relative stability of irrigated cropland and pasture as well as grassland.The SSP2-4.5 scenario presented a more complex trade-off,where urban and built-up land and grassland increased first and then decreased,whereas irrigated cropland and pasture followed an opposite trajectory.A significant inverse relationship between urban and built-up land and irrigated cropland and pasture was observed under all scenarios,underscoring the fundamental spatial competition that prevailed in this land-constrained valley city.Furthermore,the negative correlation of grassland with urban and built-up land,coupled with the positive correlation of grassland with irrigated cropland and pasture under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,indicated an evolution from broad confrontation to intricate internal trade-offs within the urban–agricultural–ecological system.This study underscored the critical influence of regional topographic and hydrological constraints on land-use evolution in arid regions,providing guidance for water resource management and ecosystem protection in Lanzhou,with applications for sustainable land-use planning in other arid and semi-arid river valley cities.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.92155306 and L2224031)。
文摘Earth system can be categorized into three parts, solid Earth system, surface Earth system, and Sun-Earth space system. These three subsystems not only have mutual transmission and coupling relationships in both energy and matter but also involve multiple scales from microscopic to macroscopic. Earth system science is characterized by its globality and unity with a holistic view and a systematic view at multiple scales in both space and time. It focuses not only on the physical, chemical and biological interactions between various geospheres but also on the properties, behaviors, processes, and mechanisms of the entire Earth and its spheres. Although significant progress has been made in the study of internal disciplines of these three subsystems,there is still insufficient understanding of their overall behavior and interactions between individuals, thus facing challenges of different types and levels. The solid Earth system is composed of the crust, mantle, and core. Existing observational techniques struggle to penetrate deep into the mantle, making direct observation and data acquisition difficult;the extreme environments within Earth, such as high temperature, high pressure, and strong magnetic fields, also pose great challenges to observational equipment and scientific experiments. The surface Earth system is an open complex mega-system, in which there are complex interactions and feedback mechanisms among its geospheres(such as atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, pedosphere and lithosphere), leading to difficulties in understanding of its overall behavior and long-term evolution. Biological activities have become increasingly significant in affecting the surface Earth system. The coupling between the internal and external Earth systems becomes more complex. Distinguishing and quantifying the impacts of Earth spherical interactions and biological activities on the surface Earth system is a major challenge. The Sun-Earth space system involves multiple physical processes such as solar activity, Earth's magnetic field, atmosphere, and space weather. Solar activity significantly affects the Earth's space environment, but existing observational and reconstruction methods and prediction models still lack precision and timeliness.Thus it is important to improve the prediction capability of solar activity and reduce the impact of space weather disasters. How to cross different scales and establish coupled models of multiple physical processes is a significant challenge in the study of the Sun-Earth space system. Because the various processes and phenomena within and between these three Earth subsystems often span multiple scales in both space and time and exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, understanding their behaviors and processes becomes complex and variable, posing great challenges for theoretical modelling and numerical simulation. Therefore,the study of Earth system science requires in-depth interdisciplinary integration to jointly reveal the basic laws and operating mechanisms of Earth system.
