The growth of Sakhalin fir(Abies sachalinen-sis)seedlings,an important forest tree species in northern Hokkaido,Japan,is significantly affected by competition from surrounding vegetation,especially evergreen dwarf bam...The growth of Sakhalin fir(Abies sachalinen-sis)seedlings,an important forest tree species in northern Hokkaido,Japan,is significantly affected by competition from surrounding vegetation,especially evergreen dwarf bamboo.In this study,we investigated the height and root collar diameter(RCD)growth of Sakhalin fir seedlings under various degrees of cover by deciduous vegetation and evergreen dwarf bamboo.Generalized additive models were used to quantify the effects of canopy cover and forest floor cover on the relative growth rates of these two parameters.The canopy cover of Sakhalin fir seedlings had a nonlin-ear negative effect on both the height growth of seedlings in the subsequent year and the RCD growth in the current year,given the general growth pattern in this species,where height growth ceases in early summer and RCD growth con-tinues until autumn.Height growth declined sharply after the canopy cover rate exceeded 50%,while RCD growth declined rapidly between 0 and 50%canopy cover rate.The forest floor cover had a greater negative impact on RCD growth than on height growth.These results suggested that Sakhalin fir seedlings respond to vegetative competition by prioritizing height growth for light acquisition at the expense of diameter growth and possibly root growth for below-ground competition.The cover of evergreen dwarf bamboo reduced the height growth of fir seedlings significantly more than the cover of deciduous vegetation.This difference is likely due to the timing of light availability.When competing with deciduous vegetation,Sakhalin fir seedlings exposed to light during the post-snow melt and early spring before the development of the deciduous vegetation canopy can photosynthesize more effectively,leading to greater height growth.The results of this study highlighted the importance of vegetation control considering the type of vegetation for successful Sakhalin fir reforestation.Adjusting the intensity and timing of weeding based on the presence and abundance of dwarf bamboo and other competing vegetation could potentially reduce weeding costs and increase biodiversity in reforested areas.展开更多
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events raises the likelihood of forest wildfires.Therefore,establishing an effective fire prediction model is vital for protecting human life and property,and the environmen...The increasing frequency of extreme weather events raises the likelihood of forest wildfires.Therefore,establishing an effective fire prediction model is vital for protecting human life and property,and the environment.This study aims to build a prediction model to understand the spatial characteristics and piecewise effects of forest fire drivers.Using monthly grid data from 2006 to 2020,a modeling study analyzed fire occurrences during the September to April fire season in Fujian Province,China.We compared the fitting performance of the logistic regression model(LRM),the generalized additive logistic model(GALM),and the spatial generalized additive logistic model(SGALM).The results indicate that SGALMs had the best fitting results and the highest prediction accuracy.Meteorological factors significantly impacted forest fires in Fujian Province.Areas with high fire incidence were mainly concentrated in the northwest and southeast.SGALMs improved the fitting effect of fire prediction models by considering spatial effects and the flexible fitting ability of nonlinear interpretation.This model provides piecewise interpretations of forest wildfire occurrences,which can be valuable for relevant departments and will assist forest managers in refining prevention measures based on temporal and spatial differences.展开更多
Fault monitoring of bioprocess is important to ensure safety of a reactor and maintain high quality of products. It is difficult to build an accurate mechanistic model for a bioprocess, so fault monitoring based on ri...Fault monitoring of bioprocess is important to ensure safety of a reactor and maintain high quality of products. It is difficult to build an accurate mechanistic model for a bioprocess, so fault monitoring based on rich historical or online database is an effective way. A group of data based on bootstrap method could be resampling stochastically, improving generalization capability of model. In this paper, online fault monitoring of generalized additive models （GAMs） combining with bootstrap is proposed for glutamate fermentation process. GAMs and bootstrap are first used to decide confidence interval based on the online and off-line normal sampled data from glutamate fermentation experiments. Then GAMs are used to online fault monitoring for time, dissolved oxygen, oxygen uptake rate, and carbon dioxide evolution rate. The method can provide accurate fault alarm online and is helpful to provide useful information for removing fault and abnormal phenomena in the fermentation.展开更多
In dealing with nonparametric regression the GAM procedure is the most versatile of several new procedures. The terminology behind this procedure is more flexible than traditional parametric modeling tools. It relaxes...In dealing with nonparametric regression the GAM procedure is the most versatile of several new procedures. The terminology behind this procedure is more flexible than traditional parametric modeling tools. It relaxes the usual assumptions of parametric model and enables us to uncover structure to establish the relationship between independent variables and dependent variable in exponential family that may not be obvious otherwise. In this paper, we discussed two methods of fitting generalized additive logistic regression model, one based on Newton Raphson method and another based on iterative weighted least square method for first and second order Taylor series expansion. The use of the GAM procedure with the specified set of weights, using local scoring algorithm, was applied to real life data sets. The cubic spline smoother is applied to the independent variables. Based on nonparametric regression and smoothing techniques, this procedure provides powerful tools for data analysis.展开更多
This study aims to provide a predictive vegetation mapping approach based on the spectral data, DEM and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). GAMs were used as a prediction tool to describe the relationship between vege...This study aims to provide a predictive vegetation mapping approach based on the spectral data, DEM and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). GAMs were used as a prediction tool to describe the relationship between vegetation and environmental variables, as well as spectral variables. Based on the fitted GAMs model, probability map of species occurrence was generated and then vegetation type of each grid was defined according to the probability of species occurrence. Deviance analysis was employed to test the goodness of curve fitting and drop contribution calculation was used to evaluate the contribution of each predictor in the fitted GAMs models. Area under curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to assess the results maps of probability. The results showed that: 1) AUC values of the fitted GAMs models are very high which proves that integrating spectral data and environmental variables based on the GAMs is a feasible way to map the vegetation. 2) Prediction accuracy varies with plant community, and community with dense cover is better predicted than sparse plant community. 3) Both spectral variables and environmental variables play an important role in mapping the vegetation. However, the contribution of the same predictor in the GAMs models for different plant communities is different. 4) Insufficient resolution of spectral data, environmental data and confounding effects of land use and other variables which are not closely related to the environmental conditions are the major causes of imprecision.展开更多
This research develops a new mathematical modeling method by combining industrial big data and process mechanism analysis under the framework of generalized additive models(GAM)to generate a practical model with gener...This research develops a new mathematical modeling method by combining industrial big data and process mechanism analysis under the framework of generalized additive models(GAM)to generate a practical model with generalization and precision.Specifically,the proposed modeling method includes the following steps.Firstly,the influence factors are screened using mechanism knowledge and data-mining methods.Secondly,the unary GAM without interactions including cleaning the data,building the sub-models,and verifying the sub-models.Subsequently,the interactions between the various factors are explored,and the binary GAM with interactions is constructed.The relationships among the sub-models are analyzed,and the integrated model is built.Finally,based on the proposed modeling method,two prediction models of mechanical property and deformation resistance for hot-rolled strips are established.Industrial actual data verification demonstrates that the new models have good prediction precision,and the mean absolute percentage errors of tensile strength,yield strength and deformation resistance are 2.54%,3.34%and 6.53%,respectively.And experimental results suggest that the proposed method offers a new approach to industrial process modeling.展开更多
A model of deformation resistance during hot strip rolling was established based on generalized additive model.Firstly,a data modeling method based on generalized additive model was given.It included the selection of ...A model of deformation resistance during hot strip rolling was established based on generalized additive model.Firstly,a data modeling method based on generalized additive model was given.It included the selection of dependent variable and independent variables of the model,the link function of dependent variable and smoothing functional form of each independent variable,estimating process of the link function and smooth functions,and the last model modification.Then,the practical modeling test was carried out based on a large amount of hot rolling process data.An integrated variable was proposed to reflect the effects of different chemical compositions such as carbon,silicon,manganese,nickel,chromium,niobium,etc.The integrated chemical composition,strain,strain rate and rolling temperature were selected as independent variables and the cubic spline as the smooth function for them.The modeling process of deformation resistance was realized by SAS software,and the influence curves of the independent variables on deformation resistance were obtained by local scoring algorithm.Some interesting phenomena were found,for example,there is a critical value of strain rate,and the deformation resistance increases before this value and then decreases.The results confirm that the new model has higher prediction accuracy than traditional ones and is suitable for carbon steel,microalloyed steel,alloyed steel and other steel grades.展开更多
There are typical ecosystems of littoral wetlands in the Yellow River Delta.In order to study the relationships between Tamarix chinensis and environmental variables and to predict T.chinensis potential distribution i...There are typical ecosystems of littoral wetlands in the Yellow River Delta.In order to study the relationships between Tamarix chinensis and environmental variables and to predict T.chinensis potential distribution in the Yellow River Delta,641 vegetation samples and 964 soil samples were collected in the area in October of 2004,2005,2006 and 2007.The contents of soil organic matter,total phosphorus,salt,and soluble potassium were determined.Then,the analyzed data were interpolated into spatial raster data by Kriging interpolation method.Meanwhile,the digital elevation model,soil type map and landform unit map of the Yellow River Delta were also collected.Generalized Additive Models(GAMs) were employed to build species-environment model and then simulate the potential distribution of T.chinensis.The results indicated that the distribution of T.chinensis was mainly limited by soil salt content,total soil phosphorus content,soluble potassium content,soil type,landform unit,and elevation.The distribution probability of T.chinensis was produced with a lookup table generated by Grasp Module(based on GAMs) in software ArcView GIS 3.2.The AUC(Area Under Curve) value of validation and cross-validation of ROC(Receive Operating Characteristic) were both higher than 0.8,which suggested that the established model had a high precision for predicting species distribution.展开更多
In this study, the horizontal and vertical distribution of primary production(PP) and its monthly variations were described based on field data collected from the Daya Bay in January–December of 2016. The relationshi...In this study, the horizontal and vertical distribution of primary production(PP) and its monthly variations were described based on field data collected from the Daya Bay in January–December of 2016. The relationships between PP and environmental factors were analyzed using a general additive model(GAM). Significant seasonal differences were observed in the horizontal distribution of PP, while vertical distribution showed a relatively consistent unimodal pattern. The monthly average PP(calculated by carbon) ranged from 48.03 to 390.56 mg/(m~2·h),with an annual average of 182.77 mg/(m~2·h). The highest PP was observed in May and the lowest in November.Additionally, the overall trend in PP was spring>summer>winter>autumn, and spring PP was approximately three times that of autumn PP. GAM analysis revealed that temperature, bottom salinity, phytoplankton, and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR) had no significant relationships with PP, while longitude, depth, surface salinity, chlorophyll a(Chl a) and transparency were significantly correlated with PP. Overall, the results presented herein indicate that monsoonal changes and terrestrial and offshore water systems have crucial effects on environmental factors that are associated with PP changes.展开更多
Count data that exhibit over dispersion (variance of counts is larger than its mean) are commonly analyzed using discrete distributions such as negative binomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and other models. The Poisson...Count data that exhibit over dispersion (variance of counts is larger than its mean) are commonly analyzed using discrete distributions such as negative binomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and other models. The Poisson is characterized by the equality of mean and variance whereas the Negative Binomial and the Poisson inverse Gaussian have variance larger than the mean and therefore are more appropriate to model over-dispersed count data. As an alternative to these two models, we shall use the generalized Poisson distribution for group comparisons in the presence of multiple covariates. This problem is known as the ANCOVA and is solved for continuous data. Our objectives were to develop ANCOVA using the generalized Poisson distribution, and compare its goodness of fit to that of the nonparametric Generalized Additive Models. We used real life data to show that the model performs quite satisfactorily when compared to the nonparametric Generalized Additive Models.展开更多
为探究连云港近海中国毛虾(Acetes chinensis)资源分布与环境因子间的关系,根据2021年该海域中国毛虾限额捕捞期间捕捞日志和海洋环境数据(经纬度、海表温度、海表盐度、浮游植物丰度、潮流、水深),运用广义可加模型(generalized additi...为探究连云港近海中国毛虾(Acetes chinensis)资源分布与环境因子间的关系,根据2021年该海域中国毛虾限额捕捞期间捕捞日志和海洋环境数据(经纬度、海表温度、海表盐度、浮游植物丰度、潮流、水深),运用广义可加模型(generalized additive model,GAM)探究中国毛虾资源丰度[以单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)表示]随环境因子变化情况。结果显示,中国毛虾资源在空间上呈现多核心聚集规律,CPUE高值区域分布于120°04'~120°13'E、34°43'~34°46'N以及119°46'~119°50'E、34°44'~34°45'N海域。最优GAM模型累积偏差解释率为55.20%,偏差解释率最大因子为海表温度(17.40%),其次是纬度(13.90%)和经度(6.80%)。海表温度20.0~24.0℃时,毛虾CPUE随着海表温度的升高而平稳上升;当海表温度大于24.0℃,毛虾CPUE随温度上升逐渐下降;在捕捞区域范围内,中国毛虾CPUE总体上随着纬度的增加而增加,经度影响则相反;中国毛虾CPUE基本随着浮游植物丰度的增加而增加。此外,在低潮期或高潮期时进行布网捕捞,可有效提高毛虾CPUE。研究结果可用于进一步构建中国毛虾栖息地模型,为准确预测其渔场分布及制定限额捕捞管理政策提供科学依据。展开更多
基金supported by the Ministry of Agriculture,Forestry,and Fisheries of Japan (25093 C)JSPS KAKENHI (JP23H02262)
文摘The growth of Sakhalin fir(Abies sachalinen-sis)seedlings,an important forest tree species in northern Hokkaido,Japan,is significantly affected by competition from surrounding vegetation,especially evergreen dwarf bamboo.In this study,we investigated the height and root collar diameter(RCD)growth of Sakhalin fir seedlings under various degrees of cover by deciduous vegetation and evergreen dwarf bamboo.Generalized additive models were used to quantify the effects of canopy cover and forest floor cover on the relative growth rates of these two parameters.The canopy cover of Sakhalin fir seedlings had a nonlin-ear negative effect on both the height growth of seedlings in the subsequent year and the RCD growth in the current year,given the general growth pattern in this species,where height growth ceases in early summer and RCD growth con-tinues until autumn.Height growth declined sharply after the canopy cover rate exceeded 50%,while RCD growth declined rapidly between 0 and 50%canopy cover rate.The forest floor cover had a greater negative impact on RCD growth than on height growth.These results suggested that Sakhalin fir seedlings respond to vegetative competition by prioritizing height growth for light acquisition at the expense of diameter growth and possibly root growth for below-ground competition.The cover of evergreen dwarf bamboo reduced the height growth of fir seedlings significantly more than the cover of deciduous vegetation.This difference is likely due to the timing of light availability.When competing with deciduous vegetation,Sakhalin fir seedlings exposed to light during the post-snow melt and early spring before the development of the deciduous vegetation canopy can photosynthesize more effectively,leading to greater height growth.The results of this study highlighted the importance of vegetation control considering the type of vegetation for successful Sakhalin fir reforestation.Adjusting the intensity and timing of weeding based on the presence and abundance of dwarf bamboo and other competing vegetation could potentially reduce weeding costs and increase biodiversity in reforested areas.
基金supported by the Fujian Provincial Science and Technology Program“University-Industry Cooperation Project”(2024Y4015)National Key R&D Plan of Strategic International Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation Project(2018YFE0207800).
文摘The increasing frequency of extreme weather events raises the likelihood of forest wildfires.Therefore,establishing an effective fire prediction model is vital for protecting human life and property,and the environment.This study aims to build a prediction model to understand the spatial characteristics and piecewise effects of forest fire drivers.Using monthly grid data from 2006 to 2020,a modeling study analyzed fire occurrences during the September to April fire season in Fujian Province,China.We compared the fitting performance of the logistic regression model(LRM),the generalized additive logistic model(GALM),and the spatial generalized additive logistic model(SGALM).The results indicate that SGALMs had the best fitting results and the highest prediction accuracy.Meteorological factors significantly impacted forest fires in Fujian Province.Areas with high fire incidence were mainly concentrated in the northwest and southeast.SGALMs improved the fitting effect of fire prediction models by considering spatial effects and the flexible fitting ability of nonlinear interpretation.This model provides piecewise interpretations of forest wildfire occurrences,which can be valuable for relevant departments and will assist forest managers in refining prevention measures based on temporal and spatial differences.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （61273131） 111 Project （B12018）+1 种基金 the Innovation Project of Graduate in Jiangsu Province （CXZZ12_0741） the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities （JUDCF12034）
文摘Fault monitoring of bioprocess is important to ensure safety of a reactor and maintain high quality of products. It is difficult to build an accurate mechanistic model for a bioprocess, so fault monitoring based on rich historical or online database is an effective way. A group of data based on bootstrap method could be resampling stochastically, improving generalization capability of model. In this paper, online fault monitoring of generalized additive models （GAMs） combining with bootstrap is proposed for glutamate fermentation process. GAMs and bootstrap are first used to decide confidence interval based on the online and off-line normal sampled data from glutamate fermentation experiments. Then GAMs are used to online fault monitoring for time, dissolved oxygen, oxygen uptake rate, and carbon dioxide evolution rate. The method can provide accurate fault alarm online and is helpful to provide useful information for removing fault and abnormal phenomena in the fermentation.
文摘In dealing with nonparametric regression the GAM procedure is the most versatile of several new procedures. The terminology behind this procedure is more flexible than traditional parametric modeling tools. It relaxes the usual assumptions of parametric model and enables us to uncover structure to establish the relationship between independent variables and dependent variable in exponential family that may not be obvious otherwise. In this paper, we discussed two methods of fitting generalized additive logistic regression model, one based on Newton Raphson method and another based on iterative weighted least square method for first and second order Taylor series expansion. The use of the GAM procedure with the specified set of weights, using local scoring algorithm, was applied to real life data sets. The cubic spline smoother is applied to the independent variables. Based on nonparametric regression and smoothing techniques, this procedure provides powerful tools for data analysis.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41001363)
文摘This study aims to provide a predictive vegetation mapping approach based on the spectral data, DEM and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). GAMs were used as a prediction tool to describe the relationship between vegetation and environmental variables, as well as spectral variables. Based on the fitted GAMs model, probability map of species occurrence was generated and then vegetation type of each grid was defined according to the probability of species occurrence. Deviance analysis was employed to test the goodness of curve fitting and drop contribution calculation was used to evaluate the contribution of each predictor in the fitted GAMs models. Area under curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to assess the results maps of probability. The results showed that: 1) AUC values of the fitted GAMs models are very high which proves that integrating spectral data and environmental variables based on the GAMs is a feasible way to map the vegetation. 2) Prediction accuracy varies with plant community, and community with dense cover is better predicted than sparse plant community. 3) Both spectral variables and environmental variables play an important role in mapping the vegetation. However, the contribution of the same predictor in the GAMs models for different plant communities is different. 4) Insufficient resolution of spectral data, environmental data and confounding effects of land use and other variables which are not closely related to the environmental conditions are the major causes of imprecision.
基金Project(51774219)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘This research develops a new mathematical modeling method by combining industrial big data and process mechanism analysis under the framework of generalized additive models(GAM)to generate a practical model with generalization and precision.Specifically,the proposed modeling method includes the following steps.Firstly,the influence factors are screened using mechanism knowledge and data-mining methods.Secondly,the unary GAM without interactions including cleaning the data,building the sub-models,and verifying the sub-models.Subsequently,the interactions between the various factors are explored,and the binary GAM with interactions is constructed.The relationships among the sub-models are analyzed,and the integrated model is built.Finally,based on the proposed modeling method,two prediction models of mechanical property and deformation resistance for hot-rolled strips are established.Industrial actual data verification demonstrates that the new models have good prediction precision,and the mean absolute percentage errors of tensile strength,yield strength and deformation resistance are 2.54%,3.34%and 6.53%,respectively.And experimental results suggest that the proposed method offers a new approach to industrial process modeling.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51774219)Science and Technology Research Program of Hubei Ministry of Education(D20161103)Youth Science and technology Program of Wuhan(2016070204010099)
文摘A model of deformation resistance during hot strip rolling was established based on generalized additive model.Firstly,a data modeling method based on generalized additive model was given.It included the selection of dependent variable and independent variables of the model,the link function of dependent variable and smoothing functional form of each independent variable,estimating process of the link function and smooth functions,and the last model modification.Then,the practical modeling test was carried out based on a large amount of hot rolling process data.An integrated variable was proposed to reflect the effects of different chemical compositions such as carbon,silicon,manganese,nickel,chromium,niobium,etc.The integrated chemical composition,strain,strain rate and rolling temperature were selected as independent variables and the cubic spline as the smooth function for them.The modeling process of deformation resistance was realized by SAS software,and the influence curves of the independent variables on deformation resistance were obtained by local scoring algorithm.Some interesting phenomena were found,for example,there is a critical value of strain rate,and the deformation resistance increases before this value and then decreases.The results confirm that the new model has higher prediction accuracy than traditional ones and is suitable for carbon steel,microalloyed steel,alloyed steel and other steel grades.
基金Under the auspices of the Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China ( No. 41001363)Autonomous Project of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Geo-information Tupu Theory and Virtual Geoscience
文摘There are typical ecosystems of littoral wetlands in the Yellow River Delta.In order to study the relationships between Tamarix chinensis and environmental variables and to predict T.chinensis potential distribution in the Yellow River Delta,641 vegetation samples and 964 soil samples were collected in the area in October of 2004,2005,2006 and 2007.The contents of soil organic matter,total phosphorus,salt,and soluble potassium were determined.Then,the analyzed data were interpolated into spatial raster data by Kriging interpolation method.Meanwhile,the digital elevation model,soil type map and landform unit map of the Yellow River Delta were also collected.Generalized Additive Models(GAMs) were employed to build species-environment model and then simulate the potential distribution of T.chinensis.The results indicated that the distribution of T.chinensis was mainly limited by soil salt content,total soil phosphorus content,soluble potassium content,soil type,landform unit,and elevation.The distribution probability of T.chinensis was produced with a lookup table generated by Grasp Module(based on GAMs) in software ArcView GIS 3.2.The AUC(Area Under Curve) value of validation and cross-validation of ROC(Receive Operating Characteristic) were both higher than 0.8,which suggested that the established model had a high precision for predicting species distribution.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41506136the Scientific Research Foundation of Third Institute of Oceanography,SOA under contract No.2015005
文摘In this study, the horizontal and vertical distribution of primary production(PP) and its monthly variations were described based on field data collected from the Daya Bay in January–December of 2016. The relationships between PP and environmental factors were analyzed using a general additive model(GAM). Significant seasonal differences were observed in the horizontal distribution of PP, while vertical distribution showed a relatively consistent unimodal pattern. The monthly average PP(calculated by carbon) ranged from 48.03 to 390.56 mg/(m~2·h),with an annual average of 182.77 mg/(m~2·h). The highest PP was observed in May and the lowest in November.Additionally, the overall trend in PP was spring>summer>winter>autumn, and spring PP was approximately three times that of autumn PP. GAM analysis revealed that temperature, bottom salinity, phytoplankton, and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR) had no significant relationships with PP, while longitude, depth, surface salinity, chlorophyll a(Chl a) and transparency were significantly correlated with PP. Overall, the results presented herein indicate that monsoonal changes and terrestrial and offshore water systems have crucial effects on environmental factors that are associated with PP changes.
文摘Count data that exhibit over dispersion (variance of counts is larger than its mean) are commonly analyzed using discrete distributions such as negative binomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and other models. The Poisson is characterized by the equality of mean and variance whereas the Negative Binomial and the Poisson inverse Gaussian have variance larger than the mean and therefore are more appropriate to model over-dispersed count data. As an alternative to these two models, we shall use the generalized Poisson distribution for group comparisons in the presence of multiple covariates. This problem is known as the ANCOVA and is solved for continuous data. Our objectives were to develop ANCOVA using the generalized Poisson distribution, and compare its goodness of fit to that of the nonparametric Generalized Additive Models. We used real life data to show that the model performs quite satisfactorily when compared to the nonparametric Generalized Additive Models.
文摘为探究连云港近海中国毛虾(Acetes chinensis)资源分布与环境因子间的关系,根据2021年该海域中国毛虾限额捕捞期间捕捞日志和海洋环境数据(经纬度、海表温度、海表盐度、浮游植物丰度、潮流、水深),运用广义可加模型(generalized additive model,GAM)探究中国毛虾资源丰度[以单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)表示]随环境因子变化情况。结果显示,中国毛虾资源在空间上呈现多核心聚集规律,CPUE高值区域分布于120°04'~120°13'E、34°43'~34°46'N以及119°46'~119°50'E、34°44'~34°45'N海域。最优GAM模型累积偏差解释率为55.20%,偏差解释率最大因子为海表温度(17.40%),其次是纬度(13.90%)和经度(6.80%)。海表温度20.0~24.0℃时,毛虾CPUE随着海表温度的升高而平稳上升;当海表温度大于24.0℃,毛虾CPUE随温度上升逐渐下降;在捕捞区域范围内,中国毛虾CPUE总体上随着纬度的增加而增加,经度影响则相反;中国毛虾CPUE基本随着浮游植物丰度的增加而增加。此外,在低潮期或高潮期时进行布网捕捞,可有效提高毛虾CPUE。研究结果可用于进一步构建中国毛虾栖息地模型,为准确预测其渔场分布及制定限额捕捞管理政策提供科学依据。
